NFL Betting News and Notes Week 16

Betting Recap - Week 15
By Daniel Dobish
VegasInsider.com

National Football League Week 15 Results

Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 12-3
Against the Spread 8-7
Home-Away
Straight Up 7-8
Against the Spread 5-10
Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 7-8

The largest underdogs to win straight up

Titans (+6, ML +220) at Chiefs, 19-17
Colts (+5, ML +200) at Vikings, 34-6
Saints (+3, ML +140) at Cardinals, 48-41

The largest favorite to cover

Seahawks (-15.5) vs. Rams, 24-3
Falcons (-14) vs. 49ers, 41-13
Bills (-10.5) vs. Browns, 33-13

Buffalo Wings

The Buffalo Bills slapped the brakes on a three-game non-cover skid, pounding the winless Cleveland Browns by a 33-13 score. It was also the fourth consecutive 'over' result for the Bills, and the ninth over in the past 10 games for Buffalo. The Bills have scored 20 or more points in four straight, and 11 of the past 13 games. Next up is a home game against the Miami Dolphins. The last time these teams faced each other it was a 28-25 loss in Miami as the 'over' cashed in Week 7.

Grin And Bear It

The Chicago Bears fell short in their comeback against the Green Bay Packers, but the results were good against the number. Chicago picked up its fifth consecutive cover in the 30-27 loss, erasing a 17-point deficit entering the final quarter. The Bears will host the Washington Redskins in the final home game at Soldier Field. The Bears are 3-4 SU and 5-2 ATS at home, four in a row in Chicago. The 'under' is 2-4-1 in Chicago's seven home games this season, although the 'over' easily hit in Sunday's game with the Pack.

Total Recall

The 'under' edged out the 'over' 8-7 heading into Monday's game between the Carolina Panthers-Washington Redskins (50.5). In seven games between AFC foes, the 'under' edged the 'over' 4-3. It was a split through Sunday's games in six NFC battles, going 3-3, with the MNF game on deck. In two AFC vs. NFC games the 'over/under' has split 1-1.

Three games in Week 15 had a total of 50 or higher, including Monday's game between the Panthers and Redskins. The 'over/under' split 1-1, with the San Francisco-Atlanta (51.5) inching over the mark with a late fourth quarter field by the Falcs, keeping up the West Coast teams in the Eastern Time Zone trend. The 'over' is 4-0 for the 49ers in games in the Eastern Time Zone this season, and the over is 15-4 (78.9%) with Pacific Coast Time Zone teams playing in the Eastern Time Zone.

The other game in Sunday's slate with a 50-point total was the Oakland-San Diego (50) game, and the 'over' was never threatened in this field goal fest. In fact, neither side had more than seven points in any one quarter. The third-highest game on the board, the New Orleans-Arizona (48) game was the highest scoring game in the NFL this season, as the Saints won it 48-41.

There were four games with totals of 40 or less, and the 'over' went 3-1 in those games. The lone exception was Thursday's snoozefest between Los Angeles-Seattle (39.5), mainly due to the ineptitude of the Rams offensive unit. Miami-N.Y. Jets (39.5) had an identical total as LA-SEA, but it went over Saturday night. The Dolphins have hit the 'over' in four straight, and seven of the past eight.

The 'over' went 2-1 in the first three primetime games with Monday's game between the Panthers-Redskins (50) still left to be decided. Officially, the 'over' is 22-23 (48.9%) through 45 games under the lights. In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games. In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56%) in 2013.

Injury Report

Steelers TE Ladarius Green (concussion) checked out of Sunday's game in Cincinnati to be evaluated for concussion.

Broncos TE Virgil Green (concussion) left Sunday's game in the first half against New England due to a concussion and he was unable to return.

49ers WR Quinton Patton (foot) was forced out of the blowout loss in Atlanta due to a foot injury sustained in the first half and he was unable to return.

Vikings WR Adam Thielen (neck) left the Week 15 game against the Colts early in the first half due to a neck injury and he did not come back.

Looking Ahead

The Eagles host the Giants Thursday night. The Eagles opened as a five-point favorite as they look to avenge a 28-23 loss in New Jersey back in Week 9. The Eagles have won four of the past five in this series, and they're also 4-1 ATS during the span. As far as the total is concerned, the 'over' is 3-1 in the past four meetings between the sides, although the 'under' has connected in six straight meetings at Lincoln Financial Field. The last 'under' between these NFC East rivals in Philadelphia took place Nov. 1, 2009.

Remember the West Coast team playing on the East Coast in Week 16 when San Diego visits Cleveland. The 'under' is actually 5-1 in Cleveland's past six games overall, and 4-0 in their past four home games, so the trend will be put to the test. The 'under' is also 3-0-1 in the past four for San Diego. The total opened at 44.

The Patriots host the Jets in Week 16, returning home after clinching the AFC East Division title with a win in Denver. The Jets are 1-4 SU over the past five meetings, including Week 12 in New Jersey. However, the Jets covered in that meeting, and are now 6-0-1 ATS in the past seven in the series, and 11-5-1 ATS in the past 17. The 'over' is 6-1 in the past seven meetings at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro.

Tampa Bay and New Orleans meet for the second time in three weeks. The Bucs exorcised some demons with a 16-11 win in Week 14 at the Ray Jay. The Bucs have won two of the past three in this series, and they're 4-1 ATS over the past five meetings. The 'under' is a perfect 4-0 in the past four in the series, and the 'under' is 6-2 in the past eight meetings in NOLA.

Opening Line Report - Week 16
By Marcus DiNitto
VegasInsider.com

By this point of the NFL season, many teams’ chances of making the playoffs are nil, and bookmakers and bettors have to wrestle with the question of how motivated such squads will be in their last few games.

The answer is surely not one-size-fits-all. Teams that are used to playing meaningful games late in the season but recently saw this year’s playoff hopes vanish – the Cardinals and Bengals, for example – probably approach late-season games differently than a team like the Bears that has been out of contention for some time.

“If you’re a team that hasn’t been in the playoffs before, you’re working on (getting better). They may come and play a little harder,” John Avello, executive director of race and sports at the Wynn, said Sunday night. “Teams that have made the playoffs before and had high expectations that are not playing well, that are out of it, maybe you’ll get a little lesser performance out of them.”

Bettors, though, are kidding themselves if they think they can read teams’ minds and guess with any accuracy how hard they will play in “meaningless” games.

“For the one time you get it right, you’re probably wrong five other times,” said Ed Salmons, manager at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook. “It’s like flipping coins. You just don’t know.”

Still, Avello says he adjusts his numbers if a team has been eliminated from the playoff race.

“The reason those teams aren’t making the playoffs is they’re playing poorly, so it’s an adjustment of the power rating to go along with the team not needing the game,” Avello said. “It’s a combination of the two.”

Several of these teams face opponents in Week 16 that still have plenty to play for, and even though handicappers are not mind readers, this has to be a factor when analyzing games.

Here are all the opening point spreads for the penultimate week of the NFL regular season, which features most of the games on Christmas Eve (Saturday) but a pair of doozies on Christmas Day. Numbers listed are the Las Vegas consensus as of Sunday night at 11 p.m. ET, with early line moves and differences among Vegas books also noted.

Thursday, Dec. 22

New York Giants (-3) at Philadelphia Eagles

Philadelphia is out of the playoff race, and the Giants are in the thick of it. But before you rush to the window to lay these points next week, know that the last time the Giants were favored in Philly was in 2009 (they lost 40-17 as 2-point chalk).

Saturday, Dec. 24

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-3.5)

While not much can be gleaned from beating the Browns, Rex Ryan’s men played hard for him in Sunday’s 33-13 win. Spoiling their division rival’s season may provide the motivation they need to win at home again next week.

Tampa Bay Bucs at New Orleans Saints (-3.5)

The Bucs shut down the Saints’ offense when these teams met in Tampa Bay two weeks ago, and the 16-11 final score didn’t come close to getting the game ‘over’ the lofty total of 52. A different story figures to unfold in the Superdome.

Atlanta Falcons (-3.5) at Carolina Panthers

The Panthers were 3-point favorites when they visited Atlanta in Week 4 (the Falcons won 48-33 as Julio Jones lit up Carolina for 300 receiving yards), an indication of the massive power rating adjustments these teams have seen as the season has progressed.

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-7 even)

While the Packers have hit their stride with four straight wins and the Vikings continue to flounder, this number looks expensive to Salmons, whose shop opened Green Bay -6.5.

“I don’t care how bad Minnesota played (in Sunday’s 34-6 home loss to the Colts), that game ain’t 7,” Salmons said. “Green Bay is still the piece of garbage team we’ve seen all year. The Bears really should have won that game (the Packers won at Chicago, 30-27). For whatever reason, they got close to the goal line and they choked.”

New York Jets at New England Patriots (-16.5)

If this line holds, it will be the largest so far of the NFL season. New England opened a point lower at the Wynn, at -15.5. Either way, laying this number is a bit daunting, even with the gap in quality between these AFC East foes. The Pats almost always beat the Jets (they’ve won nine of the last 11 meetings), but they don’t cover a lot of spreads against them (1-7-1 ATS over the last nine).

Tennessee Titans (-4.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars

Tennessee opened -3.5 at the Wynn, but that number was bet up to -4.5, where most books opened the game, within about 90 minutes of wagering. CG Technology opened Tennessee -4 and stood pat through early betting.

San Diego Chargers (-6.5) at Cleveland Browns

William Hill and Stratosphere opened San Diego -6.5 before early moves to -6.

The Browns are winless and have covered the spread only twice this season, but desperate teams can be dangerous.

Indianapolis Colts at Oakland Raiders (-4)

The Westgate opened this game 4.5 but a bet on the dog prompted a move to 4.

Said Salmons, “It’s to the point now where I feel like if I don’t get dog money (on Sundays), I’m probably not going to get too much during the week. You get some wiseguys that bet dogs at the end (of the week), but you just get so overridden with all this chalk money, it’s just crazy.”

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (-3)

Next.

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-8.5)

The Wynn was dealing Seattle -8 on Sunday night, while the Westgate had -9. William Hill opened -9 and moved to -8.5.

Despite Arizona’s being officially bounced from playoff contention via Sunday’s home loss to New Orleans, Salmons expects Bruce Arians’ men to show up against their division rival.

Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans (-2)

There was an even mix of 2s and 2.5s for this AFC battle between a perennial playoff team that is no longer alive this season and another that is very much alive amid a brewing quarterback controversy.

Washington Redskins (-3.5) at Chicago Bears

Sunday’s narrow loss as 5-point home underdogs to Green Bay marked the Bears’ fifth straight cover, and Salmons continues to be impressed with their effort under John Fox.

“The Bears play hard every week,” he said.

Sunday, Dec. 25

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5)

Pittsburgh opened -6 at multiple books, all of which moved the line in Baltimore’s direction to 5 or 5.5 during Sunday night action. Coasts Resorts offered favorite players Pitt -4.5.

The Steelers were 3-point favorites when these teams met in Baltimore in Week 9 and lost outright, 21-14. But the Ravens have been dreadful on the road this season, losing four in a row away from Baltimore and counting wins at the Jaguars and at the Browns as their only two road wins of the season.

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5)

Like the one above, this game also saw an early move toward the underdog, as the line was bet down from 6 to 5.5 and from 5.5 to 5 at various shops. The numbers mark a significant swing from the Broncos -3.5 when these teams played three weeks ago in Denver.

“Denver is just so inept right now,” Salmons said. “Even when they’re open they drop the ball, (and) they can’t stop the run anymore.”

Said Avello, “Denver right now might not be in a good state of mind. Things are going south for them quickly, and this is a tough spot” with the Chiefs playing at home off a loss.

But, he added, “Kansas City offensively isn’t exactly lighting it up, so this game might be closer than you think.”

Monday, Dec. 26

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-7.5)

A touchdown plus the hook was the original number at the Westgate and CG Tech for this huge NFC clash. Dallas clinches the NFC East and the No. 1 seed in the conference with a win, while Detroit is just a game ahead of Green Bay for the lead in the North.

NFL Week 16

Redskins (7-6-1) @ Bears (3-11) — 4th road game in five weeks for Washington, which travels on very short week after deflating 26-15 loss to Carolina Monday that crippled their playoff hopes. Redskins lost three of last four games overall, are 3-3 in true road games, 1-0 as road favorites. Bears covered four of last five games; their last three losses were all by 6 or less points. Chicago is 3-4 at home, 4-1 as a home underdog. Washington won last six series games, with five of six wins by 4 or less points; they won last three visits here, by 3-3-3 points. NFC East non-divisional favorites are 11-6 vs spread, 3-2 on road; NFC North underdogs are 10-8, 3-1 at home. Under is 6-3 in Chicago’s last nine games; over is 5-2 in Redskin road games. In last five games, Washington opponents are 34-73 (46.6%) on third down.

Dolphins (9-5) @ Bills (7-7) — Miami is holding onto last Wild Card spot; they haven’t made it to playoffs since 2008; Dolphins won three of last four road games, are 2-3 as road underdogs. Miami (+3) won first meeting 28-25 at home, running ball for 256 yards- they outgained Bills 454-267 in game they trailed 17-6 with 5:00 left in third quarter. Fish are now 2-5 in last seven series games; they lost last four visits to Buffalo, by 5-19-19-16 points. Buffalo is 3-2 in its last five games, 3-2 at home, 2-2 as home favorites but rumors say Ryan is out as coach after next week. Miami is +13 in turnovers in last nine games; they have 12 takeaways in last four games. AFC divisional home favorites are 14-8 vs spread, 2-2 in AFC East games. Over is 11-2 in last 13 Buffalo games, 4-0 in last five Dolphin games.

Buccaneers (8-6) @ Saints (6-8 ) — Tampa Bay is tied for last Wild Card spot; they won five of last six games (6-0 vs spread), are 5-2 on road, 5-1 as road underdogs. Bucs (-2) beat Saints 16-11 two weeks ago in Tampa; Brees threw three INTs; Saints were -3 in TOs- they’re still 8-2 in last ten series games. Saints are 3-4 at home, 1-4 as home favorites; underdogs covered six of their seven home games. NO turned ball over 14 times (-8 ) in last six games; they scored 41+ points in last three wins, lost last four times they scored less than 41. Tampa Bay lost four of last five visits here, with three of four losses by 11+ points. NFC South divisional home favorites are 1-4 vs spread this year. Under is 4-0-1 in last five Tampa Bay games, 6-3 in Saints’ last nine games.

Falcons (9-5) @ Panthers (5-8 ) — Since 2011, Carolina is 21-6 in Nov/Dec, 3rd-best record in NFL. Very short work week for Panthers after Monday’s win at Washington (3-2 in last five games). Atlanta leads NFC South by a game; they won five of last seven games overall, are 5-2 on road, 2-1 as road favorites- they scored 42-41 points in last two games over sorry Rams/49ers, now step up in class. Falcons (+3) whacked Carolina 48-33 in Week 4, they outgained the Panthers 571-378, averaged 12 yards/pass attempt. Carolina is 4-3 at home (favored in all seven). Panthers are 5-3 in last eight series games; Falcons lost three of last four visits here, with all three losses by 10+ points. Underdogs are 6-2 vs spread in NFC South divisional games this year. Over is 12-2 in Atlanta games, 2-5 in Carolina home games.

Vikings (7-7) @ Packers (8-6) — Green Bay is holding second Wild Card spot; they’ve won last four games, scoring 29 pts/game. Packers are 5-2 at home, covering last two home games; they’re +10 in turnovers last two games, after being -6 in first 12 games. Vikings lost seven of last nine games after a 5-0 start; they lost three of last four home games. Minnesota (+2.5) opened their new dome with 17-14 win over Green Bay way back in Week 2; Vikings had 12-yard edge in field position, were +2 in turnovers, held Rodgers to 4.4 yards/pass attempt. Pack is 10-3-1 in last 14 series games, 5-1 in last six played here, with last four Green Bay wins here by 9+ points. Underdogs are 7-2 vs spread in NFC North divisional games this season. Over is 6-2 in last eight Packer games, 3-6 in last nine Minnesota tilts.

Jets (3-11) @ Patriots (12-2) — New Jersey lost five of last six games; they’re 3-4 on road, 2-4 as road underdogs, losing by 21-18-25-4 points- they were outscored 54-16 in first half of last three games. Expect Fitzpatrick back under center here after Petty got pummeled by Dolphins Saturday nite. Patriots won last five games (4-1 vs spread); they’re 5-2 SU/ATS at home, 8-2 vs spread with Brady under center. New England (-7.5) beat Jets 22-17 in Swamp four weeks ago; game was 10-10 at half, yardage was 377-333 NE- Pats were +2 in turnovers; they’re 9-2 in last 11 series games, winning last five hereby 9-3-3-2-7 points. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 21-21-1 vs spread this season. Under is 4-1 in last five Patriot games, 7-3 in Jets’ last ten games.

Titans (8-6) @ Jaguars (2-12) — Jacksonville fired coach Bradley; former Bills’ coach Marrone is interim coach. Jaguars lost last nine games (3-6 vs spread), despite trailing at halftime in only one of last five games; they’re 0-6 at home, 1-3 as a home underdog. Tennessee won/covered its last three games; they’re 4-3 on road, 3-3 as a road underdog- they rallied back to win at KC LW after falling behind 14-0 in first quarter. Titans (-3) won first meeting 36-22 at home; game was 27-0 at half. Tennessee ran ball for 214 yards, TY was 414-370 and Jax fired their OC after game. Tennessee lost four of last five visits here, losing 21-13/19-13 last two years. NFL-wide, home underdogs are 15-10 in divisional games this season. Over is 6-3 in Jaguars’ last nine games, 1-3 in last four Tennessee tilts.

Chargers (5-9) @ Browns (0-14) — In last four games, Cleveland was outscored 65-9 in first half. Would take big leap of faith to lay TD on road with Chargers by frigid Lake Erie; San Diego lost tough game to rival Raiders LW, has possibly last-ever game in Qualcomm next week- they’re 2-5 on road, winning by 3-8 points at Houston/Atlanta, both domes. Bolts are 3-3 as a favorite this season. Browns are 2-12 vs spread this year, 0-7-1 in last eight games, 0-5-1 in last six home games. Cleveland has only four takeaways (-9) in its last eight games. San Diego won six of last eight games with Cleveland; they’re 3-2 in last five visits here, last of which was in ’12. Favorites are 6-3 vs spread in AFC West divisional games this season. Under is 5-1 in Browns’ last six games, 3-0-1 in Chargers’ last four games.

Colts (7-7) @ Raiders (11-3) — Oakland is 11-3 but led at halftime in only five of 14 games; they have one-game lead in AFC West;, won seven of last eight games overall, are 4-2 at home, 2-3 as a home favorite, with wins in Coliseum by 10-3-3-14 points. Raiders scored only two TDs on last 23 drives; unsure if Carr’s injured finger is hampering his passing, but they have to run shotgun in short yardage- he can’t take snaps under center. Colts are 0-4-1 vs spread in game following a win; Indy is won its last four true road games, is 3-1-1 as a road underdog- they crushed Vikings in Twin Cities LW. Indy won last four series games; they won three of last four visits to Oakland. AFC West non-divisional home favorites are 6-10 vs spread; AFC South dogs are 9-14, 7-7 on road. Under is 4-1 in Colts’ last five games, 1-5 in Oakland home games.

49ers (1-13) @ Rams (4-10) — SF opened season with 28-0 (+2.5) home win over Rams; 49ers haven’t won since then but they outgained LA 320-185 in that game. Niners are 5-3-1 in last nine series games; they split last six visits to St Louis. SF is 0-7 on road, 1-5 as a road underdog- in their last three games, 49ers were outscored 52-0 in second half. Rams are 0-5 in Goff’s starts; four of the five were against playoff teams. LA lost nine of last ten games after a 1-3 start- they had three extra days to rest after loss in Seattle last Thursday. Rams didn’t score a TD in two of their four wins; they’re 0-1 as a favorite this year. Rams were +5 in turnovers in their 3-1 start; since then, they’re -14. NFC home divisional favorites are 7-12-1 vs spread. Under is 6-2 in Rams’ last eight games, 4-2 in 49ers’ last six.

Cardinals (5-8-1) @ Seahawks (9-4-1) — Seattle has half-game lead for #2 seed in NFC, which comes with a week off. Teams battled to 6-6 tie in Week 7 in desert where both kickers gagged on easy FGs in OT. Home team is 1-5-1 in last seven series games; Arizona won two of last three visits here, but they’re 2-5-1 overall in last eight games vs Seattle. Cardinals outgained Seattle 443-257 but came up empty in two red zone drives. Seahawks are 7-0 at home, covering last three home tilts in wins by 11-33-21 points. Cardinals lost four of last five games; they’re 1-5 on road, 0-3 as a road underdog, losing by 15-10-6-19-3 on foreign soil. Underdogs are 4-3-1 vs spread in NFC West divisional games this season. Over is 4-2 in Seattle’s last six home games, 5-0 in last five Arizona games.

Bengals (5-8-1) @ Texans (8-6) — Savage gets first NFL start here; he’s thrown 55 passes in three NFL games, leading Houston to come-from-behind win off bench last week. He’s been a Texan for three years, has full knowledge of offense. Texans are 6-1 at home, 3-1-1 as a home favorite- they’re tied atop AFC South with Titans. Bengals are 2-5 in true road games, beating Jets/Browns; they’re 2-4 in last six games overall, 0-3 as a road underdog. Houston won six of last seven series games; two of those wins were in playoff games. Home side lost four of last six series games. Bengals are 2-3 in last five visits here. AFC South non-divisional home favorites are 6-4 vs spread; AFC North underdogs are 2-11 vs spread, 2-7 on road. Under is 5-1 in last six Bengal games, 3-1 in Houston’s last four games.

Ravens (8-6) @ Steelers (9-5) — First place is on line in AFC North. Baltimore won six of last seven series games; they upset Steelers 21-14 at home (+3) in Week 9; one of their two TDs came on a blocked punt. Ravens are 5-3 in last eight visits here. Baltimore is 5-2 in its last seven games overall; they’re 0-4 SU/ATS in last four road games. Steelers won/covered their last five games, with four of those on road; they’re 4-2 as home favorites, with losses to Dallas/NE- their home wins are by 8-29-18-10 points. Pitt offense had only one TD LW at Cincy, kicked six FGs, not a good sign, but they did rally back from down 20-6 for an important road win. Favorites are 8-1 vs spread in AFC North divisional games. Last three Raven games went over total; four of last five Steeler games stayed under.

Broncos (8-6) @ Chiefs (10-4) — KC is 10-0 when it scores 19+ points, 0-4 when it does not. Denver has two offensive TDs on its last 35 drives; they’re 1-3 since their bye, scoring one first-half TD in four games. Broncos are 4-3 on road, 2-2 as road underdogs, with losses by 8-10-3 points on foreign soil. KC blew 14-0 lead in home loss to Titans LW; they’re 2-5 as a home favorite this year. Chiefs lost seven of last nine series games but won first meeting 30-27 (+3.5) in Denver four weeks ago; Broncos outgained them 464-273, but KC ran free kick back for a TD after a safety that gave Chiefs 2-0 lead. Denver won its last five visits here, all by 7+ points. Favorites are 6-3 vs spread in AFC West divisional games. Under is 8-2 in Chiefs’ last ten games, 4-1 in Denver’s last five.

Lions (9-5) @ Cowboys (12-2) — Detroit has trailed in 4th quarter in 13 of 14 games; they’re 3-1 in dome games on road, with only loss by 7 in Houston. Lions are 4-2 as road underdogs- they lead Packers by game in NFC North, host Packers next week. Cowboys are 0-4 vs spread in last four games after covering nine in row before that; they’re 3-3 as a home favorite. Dallas won six of last nine series games; four of last five were decided by 4 or less points. Average total in last six series games is 58. NFC East non-divisional favorites are 11-6 vs spread, 8-4 at home; NFC North underdogs are 10-8, 7-7 on road. Lion QB Stafford is from Dallas area, won state title in HS, playing for same HS as Jerry Jones’ grandson. Under is 8-0 in Detroit’s last eight games, 4-1 in Cowboys’ last five.

Pick Six - Week 16
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

Week 15 Record: 4-2 SU, 3-2-1 ATS
Overall Record: 42-44 SU, 39-47-2 ATS

Dolphins at Bills (-3½, 41½)

Miami
Record: 9-5 SU, 8-6 ATS, 10-4 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 80/1

The Dolphins control their own destiny for a playoff spot in the AFC with two games remaining. Miami has won eight of its past nine games, coming off a 34-13 blowout of the Jets last Saturday as backup quarterback Matt Moore tossed four touchdown passes. Moore will start once again for the injured Ryan Tannehill as the Dolphins go for the season sweep of the Bills after beating Buffalo, 28-25 as 2½-point home underdogs in Week 7.

Buffalo
Record: 7-7 SU, 6-8 ATS, 11-3 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: OFF

The Bills will likely fall short of the playoffs in spite of blowing out the Browns last week, 33-13 as 10½-point favorites to cash for only the second time in the last eight games. Buffalo has owned Miami at home through the years by winning eight of the past 10 matchups at New Era Stadium, including four straight victories. In each of those wins, the Bills have limited the Dolphins to 17 points or fewer, while Buffalo has covered in each of those games in the home favorite role.

Best Bet: Buffalo -3½

Falcons (-2½, 51½) at Panthers

Atlanta
Record: 9-5 SU, 9-5 ATS, 12-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 15/1

Last season, the Falcons handed the Panthers their first loss of the season in Week 16 as a home underdog. The two NFC South rivals meet again in Week 16 but the roles are reversed as Atlanta is listed as a short favorite looking to creep closer towards a division crown. The Falcons are coming off a pair of blowouts over two of the worst teams in the league, beating the Rams and 49ers by a combined score of 83-27. Atlanta has thrived as a favorite from a scoring perspective by putting up at least 28 points in its last seven opportunities in the chalk role.

Carolina
Record: 6-8 SU, 5-8-1 ATS, 7-7 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: OFF

The Panthers won’t be heading back to the Super Bowl this season, much less the playoffs. Carolina is looking to finish on a strong note following wins over San Diego and Washington the last two weeks, while trying to avenge a 48-33 setback in Atlanta earlier this season. The Panthers allowed 300 yards receiving to Atlanta’s Julio Jones in that loss, but the Falcons’ standout has missed the last two games with a toe injury as he hopes to return on Saturday. Carolina has won three of the past four home matchups with Atlanta, including a 38-0 shutout last season.

Best Bet: Carolina +2½

Vikings at Packers (-6½, 43)

Minnesota
Record: 7-7 SU, 8-6 ATS, 9-5 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: OFF

It’s seems like a lifetime ago when the Vikings were sitting comfortably atop the NFC North at 5-0. Minnesota has slumped to a 2-7 record the last nine games and are on the outside of the NFC playoff picture heading to Lambeau Field. The Vikings suffered their worst loss of the season last Sunday in a 34-6 home setback to the Colts. Minnesota has been limited to 16 points or less in six of its seven losses, but managed to score 17 points and beat Green Bay in Week 2 by a 17-14 count as a 1½-point home ‘dog.

Green Bay
Record: 8-6 ATS, 7-6-1 ATS, 8-6 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 15/1

The Packers are turning it on at the right time by winning four straight games to pull within one of the Lions atop the NFC North as the two teams meet next week in Detroit. Green Bay held off Chicago last Sunday at Soldier Field, 30-27, but failed to cash as 4½-point favorites in spite of four takeaways. Aaron Rodgers hasn’t thrown an interception in his last five games for Green Bay, while the Packers are riding a five-game December winning streak at Lambeau Field since 2014.

Best Bet: Minnesota +6½

Colts at Raiders (-4, 53)

Indianapolis
Record: 7-7 SU, 7-6-1 ATS, 8-6 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 125/1

The playoff chances for the Colts are slim at this point, but Indianapolis looks to keep up its road dominance of late after routing Minnesota last Sunday, 34-6 as five-point underdogs. The Colts have won four straight on the highway with all four victories coming in the underdog role, including earlier triumphs at Green Bay and Tennessee. However, Indianapolis has won consecutive games only once this season, owning a 1-5 SU/ATS record off a victory.

Oakland
Record: 11-3 SU, 9-5 ATS, 10-4 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 14/1

The Raiders pulled back into first place of the AFC West after last Sunday’s three-point road win at San Diego and Kansas City’s last-second loss to Tennessee. Oakland has clinched a playoff spot and can wrap up the division title with a victory over Indianapolis and a loss by Kansas City on Sunday night against Denver. The Raiders are rolling at home since a 1-2 start by winning their last four games at the Black Hole, while eclipsing the OVER in each of those victories.

Best Bet: Oakland -4

Buccaneers at Saints (-3, 52½)

Tampa Bay
Record: 8-6 SU, 9-5 ATS, 7-6-1 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 70/1

The Buccaneers fell short at Dallas last Sunday night in a 26-20 setback, but Tampa Bay managed to cash as seven-point underdogs to improve to 6-1 ATS away from Raymond James Stadium. Tampa Bay seeks the season sweep of New Orleans on Sunday after holding off the Saints less than two weeks ago, 16-11 as two-point favorites. The Bucs scored only one touchdown in that win, but intercepted Drew Brees three times as Tampa Bay has covered six consecutive games.

New Orleans
Record: 6-8 SU, 9-5 ATS, 7-7 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: OFF

The Saints rebounded from a pair of poor offensive efforts in losses to Detroit and Tampa Bay by dropping 48 points on Arizona last Sunday. New Orleans held off Arizona, 48-41 as Brees torched the Cardinals’ defense for four touchdown passes after failing to throw a touchdown in the previous two weeks. The Saints haven’t been great in the favorite role this season with a 2-4 ATS record (compared to the 7-1 ATS mark as an underdog), but this is the shortest number New Orleans has laid to Tampa Bay at home since 2012 when the Saints blanked the Bucs, 41-0 as 3½-point chalk.

Best Bet: New Orleans -3

Cardinals at Seahawks (-8, 43)

Arizona
Record: 5-8-1 SU, 4-10 ATS, 8-6 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: OFF

Just like the team they lost to in last season’s NFC championship, the Cardinals will not be returning to the postseason. Arizona started the season at 3-3, but have won only twice in the last eight tries, while allowing a season-high 48 points to New Orleans last Sunday. The Cardinals played to a 6-6 tie with the Seahawks in Week 7 as Arizona couldn’t pull out the win in spite of racking up 443 yards of offense that night. Arizona hasn’t been listed as an underdog by more than four points this season, while the Cardinals have won in two of their past three visits to Seattle.

Seattle
Record: 9-4-1 SU, 8-6 ATS, 7-7 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 6/1

The Seahawks have wrapped up the NFC West title and can grab a first-round bye with wins in their final two games against the Cardinals and 49ers. Seattle bounced back from an embarrassing 38-10 loss at Green Bay in Week 14 to rout the hapless Rams last Thursday, 24-3 as 15-point favorites. The Seahawks look for an 8-0 home mark for the first time since 2012 as Seattle has put together a 5-2 ATS record at CenturyLink Field this season.

Best Bet: Arizona +8

Total Talk - Week 16
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com

For the second consecutive week, the ‘under’ posted a 9-7 record despite a lot of teams moving the chains. Unfortunately for ‘over’ bettors, there were 69 made field goals in Week 15 compared to 71 touchdowns and those four-point swings can often hurt or help outcomes. Through 15 weeks of the season, the ‘over’ holds a slight edge 112-111-1.

Divisional Trends to Watch

Eleven of the 16 games scheduled this week are divisional matchups and all but one of them have playoff implications.

Miami at Buffalo: The Bills (11-3) and Dolphins (10-4) have been sneaky-good ‘over’ bets this season yet oddsmakers continue to post low totals on this pair (41½). Is there a reason for this production? The answer is yes and the proof lies with big plays (great stat) from both clubs. The Bills have seen the 'over' go 7-0 at Ralph Wilson Stadium this season behind an offense averaging 30.7 points per game at home and a suspect defense (24.7 PPG). Miami has scored 24 and 34 in its two divisional matchups on the road and the 'over' cashed in each game. The ‘over’ is on a 3-0 run in this series but the last two games played at Buffalo in December went ‘under’ the number. Keep an eye on the latest weather reports for this matchup with snow possibly looming.

Tampa Bay at New Orleans: The Buccaneers stifled the Saints 16-11 in Week 14 at home and the ‘under’ (51½) was never in doubt. It was the fourth straight ‘under’ in this series yet the rematch is staring at a higher total (52 ½). The Saints are coming off a 48-point performance and are averaging 31 PPG at home plus the scoring defense (30.3 PPG) at the Superdome is ranked last in the league.

Atlanta at Carolina: The Falcons diced up the Panthers 48-33 at home on Oct. 2 and the ‘over’ (48½) cashed easily. Even though that game went to the high side, the ‘under’ connected in the six previous encounters. The Atlanta-Over combination has cashed eight times this season, three times in their last four games. I’d be weary to press that wager here knowing Carolina’s defense (20.3 PPG) has played better at home and it’s still technically alive for the playoffs.

Minnesota at Green Bay: I thought this total (43) would be a tad lower but the majority of bettors always lean to Packers and ‘over’ at Lambeau Field. Unfortunately for the masses, that combo has hit once this season for Green Bay at home. Minnesota has leaned to the ‘under’ (9-5) all season and a couple of those ‘over’ tickets received help from its defense. The ‘under’ is on a 4-0 run in this series.

N.Y. Jets at New England: The ‘over’ has gone 7-3 in the last 10 meetings between the pair but I wouldn’t put much stock into those results. The Jets are a mess offensively with whomever at QB and New England is already in playoff-mode. I expect an ugly game with the Patriots trying to get off the field with a win and no injuries.

Tennessee at Jacksonville: The Titans blasted the Jaguars 36-22 in a Thursday night matchup at home in Week 8 and they also earned a 42-39 shootout victory in Nashville over Jacksonville last season. We mention those results because Tennessee has only managed to score 13 and 13 points in its last two trips to Jacksonville. The Jaguars will have a new coach (Doug Marrone) on the sidelines and it’s always tough to handicap teams who may or may not be playing for pride.

San Francisco at Los Angeles: Low total (39) for this meaningless matchup and it’s warranted with neither team showing consistent production on offense. The ‘under’ has gone 4-0 in the last four games in this series, which includes the Week 1 result when the 49ers blanked the Rams 28-0 at home.

Arizona at Seattle: The ‘under’ is on a 4-2 run in this series and we’re looking at a low total (43) this week but I wouldn’t be surprised to see some fireworks. The Cardinals are eliminated from the playoffs but they’re on a 5-0 ‘over’ run and all six of their road games have gone to the high side. Seattle has been much more potent offensively at home (28 PPG) and it needs to win this game to push closer to No. 2 seed in the NFC.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh: Tough total (44) to handicap because Pittsburgh’s been a clear-cut ‘under’ team (10-4) this season but it still has the ability to explode offensively. Baltimore has also leaned to the ‘under’ (8-6) yet the offense has found its rhythm the last three weeks (29.3 PPG) and that’s resulted in three ‘over’ tickets. The ‘under’ is on a 3-0 run in this series, which includes their first meeting this season when Baltimore dropped Pittsburgh 21-14 at home.

Coast to Coast

It wasn’t easy last week but head coach Dan Quinn decided to kick a late field goal in Atlanta’s 41-13 home win San Francisco and the ‘over’ (51½) connected for bettors last Sunday. Including that result, the ‘over’ has gone 15-4 (79%) in games where a team from the West Coast has played in the Eastern Time Zone. Dating back to last season, the overall numbers are 26-9 (74%) to the ‘over’ in these games.

The last regular season game featuring a West Coast team playing in the Eastern Time Zone takes place on Saturday when San Diego visits Cleveland. The total on this game opened at 44 and you can make an argument for either decision.

The Browns (29.1 PPG) and Chargers (26.1 PPG) are both ranked in the bottom four in scoring defense but neither team has shown much pop offensively lately. Cleveland is averaging 10.3 PPG in its last six while San Diego’s once potent attack has been held to 21 or less in four straight games. The Chargers have already made two trips to the East Coast this season and the total has gone 1-1 in those games with combined scores of 63 and 44 points posted. Weather expected to play a factor in this matchup as well.

Under the Lights

The ‘under’ run in the primetime matchups continued in Week 15 with a 3-1 mark, the lone ‘over’ occurring in Miami’s 34-13 win over the Jets last Saturday. The ‘under’ was on a 5-2 run the last two weeks but Philadelphia and New York did go ‘over’ this past Thursday, which snapped a six-game run to the low side on the midweek game. Through 15 weeks and one game, the ‘under’ holds a 26-21-1 mark in night games this season.

We have three games slated under the lights for Week 16, with the action starting on Saturday.

Cincinnati at Houston: Despite playing in different divisions, these teams have met the last five seasons and the ‘under’ has gone 3-2. The average combined scored during this span was 32.6. Houston is going with Tom Savage at quarterback and he looked decent last week (23-of-36, 260 yards) against a decent Jaguars defense. The Bengals offense has been held to 20 points or less in five of seven road games and hard to see them improving that number against a stout Texans defense that has been much better at home (17.6 PPG).

Denver at Kansas City: These teams combined for 57 points in Week 12 as Kansas City nipped Denver 30-27 in overtime on the road. This was a 16-10 game going into the fourth quarter and looked like an easy ‘under’ winner. For the rematch, the books have sent out a super-low number of 37½ points and the number is justified. The Chiefs have seen the ‘under’ go 10-4 this season, 6-1 at Arrowhead Stadium while Denver enters this contest on a 3-0 ‘under’ run behind an offense (11 PPG) that has imploded the last three weeks. This is another contest that will likely be affected with inclement weather.

Detroit at Dallas: Knowing the Cowboys clinched the No. 1 overall seed on Thursday due to the Giants losing makes this game very tough to handicap. Will Dallas pull up in this spot and go through the motions? Tough to say but we do know the Lions enter this game on an 8-0 run to the ‘under’ and they have a very good defense. Dallas has also been a solid ‘under’ bet (9-5) this season and its last three games have all leaned to the low side. This total opened 42½ and sits at 44½ as of Friday but that could quickly change based on what Cowboys team we’ll see this Monday.

Fearless Predictions

I expected the elements to play a factor in the Green Bay-Chicago game and that didn’t work out so well. That matchup alone put us in the red ($230) and pushed the deficit back to the five-unit ($490) mark on the season. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck and Happy Holidays to you and yours!

Best Over: Tampa Bay-New Orleans 52½

Best Under: Tennessee-Jacksonville 44

Best Team Total: Washington Over 25

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Tampa Bay-New Orleans Over 43½
Arizona-Seattle Over 34
Denver-Kansas City Under 46½

Sunday's Christmas Tips
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

The NFL has given us a couple of Week 16 Christmas games to be very merry about with four teams all fighting for a playoff berth and the results of Sunday's game will make the postseason picture much clearer.

The Steelers can clinch a division crown with a win against the Ravens in the early game and the Chiefs can clinch a spot in the nightcap against the Broncos.

Let's take at how these two rivalries stack up:

Baltimore at Pittsburgh (-5.5, 44)

The Ravens have won four straight over the Steelers, but if Pittsburgh can halt the streak and win Sunday at Heinz Field they'll clinch the AFC North. However, Baltimore controls its own destiny. If they win Sunday and next week at Cincinnati, they'll clinch the division and be the AFC's No. 3 seed in the playoffs.

Prior to Saturday's games, the Ravens were outside looking in as the No. 7 seed in the AFC. They've built up their respect with Las Vegas oddsmakers over the past seven weeks by going 5-2. However, they've lost the past four on the road and are just 1-5 ATS on the road this season which is part of the reason Pittsburgh is as high as a six-point favorite at CG Technology sports books for this one.

The other reason Pittsburgh is favored so high is because they're peaking at the right time and playing to expectations that their high rating had when the season started. After going through a stretch of losing and failing to cover four straight, Pittsburgh has won and covered its last five with the running game, passing game and defense all being dominant at times.

Four of those five games during the win streak have stayed 'under' the total. Pittsburgh's 10-4 'under' mark is tied with two other teams as second-best in the NFL. Sunday's total is set with a a high at 45 and a low at 44.

RECENT MEETINGS

Ravens are 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings and the Under is 3-0-1 as well.

TRENDS

Baltimore is 7-0 ATS in last seven against NFC North teams.
Baltimore is 0-5 ATS in last five road games.
Baltimore 'under' is 5-1-1 in last seven Week 16 games.

Pittsburgh is 4-1-1 ATS in last six against AFC North teams.
Pittsburgh in 5-0 ATS in last five games.
Pittsburgh 'under' is 19-6-1 in last 26 against NFC North teams.

Denver at Kansas City (-3.5, 37.5)

All the Chiefs need to clinch a playoff berth is for Baltimore to either tie or lose Sunday's earlier game at Pittsburgh or take care of business on their own with a win or tie at home against the Broncos in the evening.

For the Broncos, they have all kinds of scenarios that could give them a playoff berth by either winning their final two games and finishing 10-6 or splitting them and finishing 9-7. Any way they slice it, they're still outside looking in to the playoff equation and need lots of help.

"The only scenario I know is that if we don't win, we get no chance," said Broncos head coach Gary Kubiak.

Those chances look bleak based on what we've all seen out of the Broncos lately. After starting 4-0 they've lost six of their last 10, including three of their last four. However, they have won the last four visits to Arrowhead Stadium.

The Denver defense has been steady, ranked No. 2 overall (310 YPG allowed) while also tied for No. 1 with 40 sacks. But the run defense has been a source for repeated success by opponents, ranked No. 29 allowing 127 yards per game. The sluggish offense has shown it can't run the ball (91 YPG) and can't score getting just 13 points combined in its it last two games. The passing game will also suffer this week as the top two tight-ends are likely to be 'out' with concussions.

The top reason for Denver optimism coming into this game is "Mother Nature" which could turn this into a really ugly game that bodes well for Denver's defense to make some big plays. Thunderstorms are expected with winds as high as 24 miles per hour, which means passing will be very difficult and turnovers with slippery balls should be high for both teams.

LINE MOVEMENT

The Chiefs may have already clinched a playoff spot with a Baltimore loss which could lend belief that Kansas City might not play as hard, but they're still in the hunt for the AFC West crown and if Oakland loses to the Colts Saturday a Kansas City win would put them in first-place by virtue of sweeping the Raiders this season. So don't expect major line adjustment based on other teams results heading into the game. However, some serious line movement has already happened. The -- Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened Kansas City -6 on Sunday night and by Monday afternoon it had been bet down to -4 and then -3.5 on Tuesday. The total has dropped from 38 down to 37.5 as of Thursday afternoon.

RECENT MEETINGS

The Broncos have covered six of its past seven at Kansas City and the road team has covered the last six meetings. Kansas City has won the past two meetings, both at Denver.

TRENDS

Denver is 1-4 ATS in last five against winning teams.
Denver is 1-5 ATS in last six against AFC West teams.
Denver 'under' is 5-1 in last six road games.

Kansas City is 2-8 ATS in last 10 home games.
Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in last five following an ATS loss.
Kansas City 'under' is 38-15 in last 53 home games.

NFL: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers

The Green Bay Packers (8-6 SU, 7-6-1 ATS) can still win the NFC North. The Minnesota Vikings (7-7 SU, 8-6 ATS) are clinging to their playoff hopes. They’ll meet Saturday at Lambeau Field in the most important game of the season for both teams; kick-off is at 1 PM ET on FOX, with the Packers laying seven points.

These divisional rivals are heading in different directions with just two games left to go in the regular season. The Packers have pulled themselves out of the mire with four straight wins at 3-1 ATS; the Vikings are 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS in their last four games, including a pair of Thursday night losses by a combined five points. Minnesota’s playoff chances depend on victories over Green Bay and Chicago, plus a lot of help from elsewhere.

When these same two teams met in Week 2, it was the Vikings who prevailed 17-14 as 3-point home dogs. That was despite running back Adrian Peterson rushing for just 19 yards on 12 carries before leaving the game with a knee injury. Peterson returned to limited action last week against Indianapolis and ran for 22 yards (with a fumble) on six carries. **Update Peterson will not play in Saturday's game.

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers

The Baltimore Ravens (8-6, 6-8 ATS) edging Eagles 27-26 at home this past week will try to reclaim first place (based on tiebreakers) Xmas Night with a road win against Steelers (9-5 SU/ATS) who rallied from a 20-9 second quarter deficit to snatch a 24-20 victory over Bengals.

Ravens bested Steelers 21-14 in Baltimore back in Week 9 but with Steelers rolling along on a five game win streak gives pause Ravens can do it again in Week 16. Besides, Ravens haven't exactly been pegs to hang your hopes on when travelling. In six trips away from M&T Bank Stadium this season the result has been 2 wins, 4 losses with a cash-draining 1-5 record against the betting line. Looking back to the past fifteen in unfriendly territory the Ravens are just 4-11 with a money-burning 5-9-1 record at the betting window.

'Tis the season to be jolly, but won't be for Ravens who have flailed about when put in the role of road dog facing a team off a win (2-6 ATS) and eye-opening money-guzzling 0-10-1 ATS playing a team off B-2-B SU/ATS wins.

Steve's Screenshot
By Steve Merril

Broncos at Chiefs (-3/-3.5, 37.5)

The road team is a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS in the past four meetings in this series all of which have been outright underdog wins. Kansas City won 30-27 in overtime at Denver last month, but it was a misleading score as the Chiefs only scored one offensive touchdown in the entire game until the final 12 seconds of regulation time. Kansas City took an early 9-0 lead with a safety and free kickoff TD return. Overall, Denver held a dominating 464-273 total yard edge in that misleading home loss.

The Broncos are struggling on offense, scoring just 10 and 3 points in their past two games. Overall, Denver is averaging only 21.4 points per game on 5.3 yards per play this season (versus opponents that allow 23.5 ppg and 5.8 yppl). Kansas City's defense is allowing just 19.6 points per game (versus opponents that average 24.2 ppg), however the Chiefs are permitting a mediocre 5.7 yards per play (versus teams that average 5.7 yppl).

Denver is a strong defensive team that allows only 18.4 points per game on 4.8 yards per play this season (versus opponents that average 24.6 ppg and 5.8 yppl). The Broncos should be able to limit an mediocre Kansas City offense that averages 22.8 points per game on 5.6 yards per play this year (versus opponents that allow 23.8 ppg and 5.8 yppl).

Christmas NFL Betting Preview
By Covers.com

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6, 44)

The Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens have given football fans quite the gift with their intense rivalry, but the AFC North rivals are in line to give themselves an impressive present on Christmas Day with a victory at the other's expense. Pittsburgh can clinch the division with a victory on Sunday at Heinz Field while Baltimore can claim the AFC North title with wins in its final two games.

While the Steelers have won five in a row overall to claim a one-game edge in the standings over the Ravens, Baltimore has emerged victorious in four straight in the series - including a 21-14 triumph on Nov. 6. Mike Wallace reeled in a 95-yard touchdown reception in that tilt and was quick to gift-wrap bulletin-board material this week by telling his former Pittsburgh teammates, "Just because I tell you Merry Christmas doesn't mean I wouldn't score a touchdown on you. I can tell you Merry Christmas on the way to the end zone." Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger passed and rushed for a score in the first meeting with Baltimore and connected with Eli Rogers in the fourth quarter of a 24-20 victory over Cincinnati on Sunday. Six field goals by kicker Chris Boswell packed a punch against the Bengals, who may have the final say of who wins this division when they host the Ravens in a key Week 17 showdown on New Year's Day.

POWER RANKINGS: Ravens (-2) - Steelers (-5) + home field (-3) = Steelers -4

LINE HISTORY: The Steelers opened this AFC North matchup favoured by 4-points at home and that line has been growing all week to the current number of 6. The total opened at 44.5 and briefly dropped to 44 before returning to 44.5. Check out the complete history here.

WEATHER REPORT: The forecast for Christmas day at Heinz Field is intervals of cloud and sun and temperatures in the mid-40’s at kickoff and winds out of the east at 6 mph.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: “Pittsburgh lost the earlier meeting 21-14 at Baltimore on November 6th, but the Steelers are now a healthier team. That earlier loss came during a 0-4 SU/ATS losing streak, but the Steelers have since gone 5-0 SU/ATS in their past five games. This has always been a competitive divisional series with 6 of the past 10 meetings being decided by a 3-point margin or less.” - Covers Expert Steve Merril

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "The Steelers are seeing 57 percent of the total number tickets, while the Ravens are seeing 54 percent of the total dollars wagered." - Michael Grodsky, Vice President of Marketing & Public Relations, William Hill Race & Sports Book

INJURY REPORT:

Baltimore - WR Steve Smith (wide receiver, thigh), TE Crockett Gillmore (probable, thigh), DE Brent Urban (questionable, illness), LB Kamalei Correa (questionable, ribs), DB Anthony Levine Sr. (questionable, toe), G Alex Lewis (questionable, ankle), RB Javorius Allen (questionable, personal), G Jeremy Zuttah (questionable, undisclosed), CB Jimmy Smith (doubtful, ankle)

Pittsburgh - RB DeAngelo Williams (probable, knee), CB Justin Gilbert (questionable, illness), LB Anthony Chickillo (questionable, ankle), S Shamarko Thomas (questionable, concussion), DE Ricardo Mathews (questionable, ankle), DE Stephon Tuitt (doubtful, leg), WR Sammie Coates (doubtful, hamstring), TE Ladarius Green (doubtful, concussion).

ABOUT THE RAVENS (8-6 SU, 6-8 ATS, 6-7-1 OU): Joe Flacco (career-best 374 completions this season) threw two touchdown passes on Sunday as Baltimore posted its fifth win in seven outings with a 27-26 victory over Philadelphia. The 31-year-old Flacco owns a 5-3 mark at Heinz Field since the beginning of 2010 but has struggled on the road this season, losing his last four away from home and tossing seven interceptions in six games. Terrance West rolled up 122 yards from scrimmage (77 rushing, 45 receiving) versus the Eagles, but was limited to just 21 yards on 15 carries in last month's meeting with Pittsburgh's fifth-ranked run defense (89.1). Linebacker Zachary Orr recorded 10 of his AFC third-best 122 tackles in the first encounter with the Steelers.

ABOUT THE STEELERS (9-5 SU, 9-5 ATS, 4-10 OU): Le'Veon Bell leads the NFL with 158.8 yards from scrimmage per game and his 1,146 rushing yards are third-best in the league despite serving a three-game suspension to begin the season. The electric Bell, however, was limited to 32 yards rushing against Baltimore's second-ranked run defense (82.1) in the first meeting. Wideout Antonio Brown found the end zone against the Ravens and his 11 touchdowns this season and 96 catches are second-best in the league. Linebacker Lawrence Timmons, who has a team-leading 98 tackles, has 10-plus tackles in five of the last seven encounters with Baltimore.

TRENDS:

* Ravens are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 vs. AFC North.
* Ravens are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games.
* Steelers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
* Under is 5-1 in Ravens last 6 vs. AFC North.
* Under is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The home favorite Steelers are picking up 51 percent of the point spread action and the Over is getting 58 percent of the totals wagers.

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5, 37.5)

After last week's loss to New England, the Denver Broncos need to win their final two games to have a hope of defending their Super Bowl title. The Broncos visit the Kansas City Chiefs, whose playoff hopes also absorbed a hit last week with 19-17 loss on a last-second field goal to Tennessee, on Sunday night.

The Broncos started the season 4-0, but have since lost six of 10 and have gone 1-3 since posting a respectable 7-3 mark. "The only playoff scenario I know is that if we don’t win, we get no chance," Broncos head coach Gary Kubiak told reporters earlier in the week. Actually that's not the case as Denver could still earn a playoff berth with a loss and miss the playoffs altogether with two more wins, a scenario that will be much clearer by the time their late Christmas Day game kicks off. Kansas City can clinch a playoff spot with a win or a tie against the Broncos or if the Ravens lose or tie.

POWER RANKINGS: Broncos (-1) - Chiefs (-3.5) + home field (-3) = Chiefs -5.5

LINE HISTORY: The Chiefs opened as 4-point home favorites and that number has faded half-point to 3.5. The total opened at 39 and has been bet down one full point to the current number of 37. Check out the complete history here.

WEATHER REPORT: The forecast for Arrowhead Stadium is mostly cloudy skies with a 30 percent chance of showers and temperatures in the mid-50’s. There will be strong winds out of the southwest 10-20 mph.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: “There will be a lot in the line in the Broncos-Chiefs clash this Sunday with Kansas City one game back of Oakland in the AFC WFC while Denver is battling for a coveted spot in the Wild Card chase. The Broncos will hope their mastery on the division road (15-2 SU and 14-3 ATS last seventeen AFC West away games) continues, whereas the Chiefs will rely on the success they’ve enjoyed at Arrowhead Stadium in games throughout December (24-10 SU and 20-13-1 ATS since 1997). Not surprise if the last team that scores wins this game.” - Covers Expert Marc Lawrence

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "We opened Kansas City as a 4.5-point favourite but took sharp Denver action on that number pushing us to Chiefs -3.5 where we currently sit with solid two way action. Kansas City is getting 58 percent of that action to cover." - Michael Stewart of CarbonSports.ag.

INJURY REPORT:

Denver - QB Trevor Siemian (probable, foot), DE Derek Wolfe (questionable, neck), C Matt Paradis (questionable, hip), DE Jared Crick (questionable, ribs), LB Demarcus Ware (questionable, neck), TE Virgil Green (questionable, concussion), TE A.J. Derby (out, concussion), S T.J. Ward (out, concussion), RB C.J. Anderson (out for season, knee)

Kansas City - LB Justin March (questionable, hand), LB Tampa Hali (questionable, knee), LB Justin Houston (questionable, knee), TE Demetrius Harris (questionable, foot), DB Phillip Gaines (questionable, knee), DL Kendall Reyes (questionable, wrist)

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (8-6 SU, 8-6 ATS, 6-8 OU): Trevor Siemien's up-and-down campaign continued last week when he completed 25-of-40 throws for 282 yards as Denver was kept out of the end zone for the first time all season in the 16-3 defeat. The Broncos have virtually abandoned their ground game, which has fallen to 27th in the league (91.3 yards a game), as newly-acquired Justin Forsett led the team in rushing with 37 yards on 10 carries against the Patriots. Denver's defense remains strong as it ranks first in passing defense (183 yards a game), second in total defense and fourth in the NFL in points allowed (18.4).

ABOUT THE CHIEFS (10-4 SU, 7-7 ATS, 4-10 OU): With a chance to clinch a playoff berth in his grasp last week, Chiefs coach Andy Reid pushed all the wrong buttons. Reid watched his team fail to score on a fourth-and-goal try from the 1-yard line, saw Alex Smith throw an interception in the end zone late in the third quarter, and then called a timeout only to let Ryan Succop get another chance to boot what proved to be a 53-yard field goal in the game's final seconds. The Chiefs have won the past two games in this series led by all-purpose threat Tyreek Hill, who rushed for a score, caught a touchdown pass and returned a kick 87 yards for another score in Kansas City’s 30-27 overtime victory over the Broncos on Nov. 27.

TRENDS:

* Broncos are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
* Under is 5-0 in Broncos last 5 games following a ATS loss.
* Under is 5-1 in Chiefs last 6 games following a straight up loss.
* Road team is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The home favorite Chiefs are getting 67 percent of the wagers and the over is getting 54 percent of the Over/Under action.