Las Vegas Money Moves
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
Week 17 of the NFL weekend is always a tough one for the sports books because they have to be overly cautious and anticipate things that impact playoff implications before and during each game. Between taking games off the board while others are going and offering lower limits on games that don't matter, Week 17 is in its own special category because of how unique it is. Because of that uniqueness, most bookmakers relish the moment of being on their toes and snapping together new numbers on the fly.
"I play it cautious and keep my head on a swivel for the entire day," says MGM Resorts VP of Race and Sports Jay Rood. "I don't like to take games off the board while others have an impact, but I do lower the limits and react fast to all that is going on in the other games that are going on that impact others. I am much more aggressive in Week 17 than any other week."
While the Cowboys-Giants game is pretty black and white – with the winner making the playoffs, that's not the case everywhere else. The Raiders have a chance to win the AFC West with help from the Denver game going on at the same time, but they also have some very possible scenarios of claiming a Wild Card spot. They'll likely have half of their wild card equation with effects of the Jets and Titans game already being known by the time they kickoff at 4:15 pm (ET).
During the game, the Raiders will be scoreboard watching with the games in Denver and Cincinnati. All the Bengals have to do is beat the Ravens and they're in. The Ravens opened as 3-point favorites, but have been bet against down to minus-2.
"This Ravens game could run quite a bit if the Jets win early putting all the pressure on the Bengals to win," said Rood. "Once that part of the equation is in whether the Jets win or lose, we could see a big jump in the line."
The Ravens are hoping for the Patriots to lose their early game against the Bills giving them a chance for home field throughout the playoffs with a win against the Bengals. Even if the Patriots avenge their loss to the Bills from earlier this year, the Ravens could still get a first round bye with a win regardless of what the Steelers do.
"We know the Ravens will be playing with a strong cause of 'win or else' while the Bengals could still get in with a loss and the Jets, Raiders or Broncos losing which doesn't put them in a win or season's over situation," said Rood.
The Bengals have been awful against teams with winning records this season with their biggest victory coming against the Titans (8-7).
The Raiders have been strong 3-point favorites all week for their game against the Chargers. Most of us will agree, we thought the Chargers usual December run was happening again until last week’s melt down at Detroit. Philip Rivers had been 23-2 as a starter in the month, but is it time to jump off the strong trend just because of one bad game, or because the game is now in January and not December?
The Raiders buried the Chargers in San Diego as 7-point underdogs behind big games by Carson Palmer and Michael Bush. Before beating the Chiefs last week, the Raiders had lost three games in a row, failing miserably in games where they knew they controlled their own playoff fate. What makes this week any different, whether they know they have to get help from Denver losing or all the early scenarios for a wild card?
The Broncos have been in this position before -- where they win and they're in -- three of the last five years with two different coaches and failed each time. Jay Cutler and Kyle Orton were the choke artists in those memorable Denver implosions. This time Tim Tebow gets the chance to shake an on-going trend with Denver and the postseason, or lack of making it in the final week. Despite Tebow's style being much different than Cutler or Orton, he has the make-up of both of them with a chance to lose the final 3 games of the season and miss the playoffs.
The Broncos opened 3-point home favorites to the Chiefs and are currently at -3.5. Denver won at Kansas City 17-10 earlier this season with Tebow leading the charge. Two years ago the Chiefs ended Kyle Orton and the Broncos season with a 44-24 win at Mile High. Orton now returns to Denver as a Chief and will make his third start for the team, one of which was a big win against the Packers two weeks ago.
The Titans need all kinds of scenarios to unfold for them to make it beginning with the Bengals losing. But the move on them this week is more about the Texans and their young ineffective QB T.J. Yates. The Titans opened as 1.5-point road favorites and are now -3.
One of the major offshore books opened the Packers as 3-point favorites against the Lions despite knowing the Packers would be giving back-up Matt Flynn most of the snaps. On Tuesday, most Las Vegas books opened the Lions -3 and they are currently -3.5.
Week 17 NFL Preview Capsules
Associated Press
CHICAGO (7-8) At MINNESOTA (3-12)
OPENING LINE - Bears by 1
RECORD VS. SPREAD - Chicago 7-8; Minnesota 6-8-1
SERIES RECORD - Vikings lead 52-47-2
LAST MEETING - Bears beat Vikings 39-10, Oct. 16
LAST WEEK - Bears lost to Packers 35-21; Vikings beat Redskins 33-26
BEARS OFFENSE - OVERALL (20), RUSH (8), PASS (26)
BEARS DEFENSE - OVERALL (18), RUSH (6), PASS (28)
VIKINGS OFFENSE - OVERALL (18), RUSH (4), PASS (28)
VIKINGS DEFENSE - OVERALL (25), RUSH (12), PASS (29)
STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - Bears have won four straight in series, their longest since six in a row from 1983-86 and longest overall in this rivalry since Vikings won four straight over 1997 and 1998 seasons. ... Bears have only won at Metrodome once since 2002, 19-16 in 2006. These teams didn't play at site, now known as Mall of America Field, last season because of roof collapse that forced game outside to TCF Bank Stadium on University of Minnesota campus. ... Home team has won 16 of last 19 meetings. ... Bears averaging 35.5 points in last four games against Vikings. ... In 10 games against Vikings, WR/KR/PR Devin Hester has nine of his 30 career TDs, five receiving and four returning. He scored twice in last meeting. ... RB Kahlil Bell, filling in for injured Matt Forte (sprained right knee), had career-high 121 yards rushing last week. Vikings have given up 302 yards rushing in last two games. ... Forte and QB Jay Cutler, out with broken right thumb, were both placed on injured reserve this week. ... Bears have lost five straight since starting 7-3. ... Vikings QB Christian Ponder expected to play after being knocked out of last game with concussion; RB Adrian Peterson is having surgery to repair tears in ACL and MCL in left knee. ... Vikings trying to avoid matching worst finish in their 51-year history, 3-13 in 1984. .... Rookie Mistral Raymond ended team's nine-game interception drought last week, stretch during which opponents passed for 25 touchdowns. ... Jared Allen has 18 1/2 sacks, four off NFL single-season record and 2 1/2 short of team single-season record. ... TE Jim Kleinsasser will play in his last game, ending 13-year career. He has played in more games than any TE in Vikings history.
CAROLINA (6-9) At NEW ORLEANS (12-3)
OPENING LINE - Saints by 9
RECORD VS. SPREAD - Carolina 9-5-1; New Orleans 11-4
SERIES RECORD - Panthers lead 17-16
LAST MEETING - Saints beat Panthers 30-27, Oct. 9
LAST WEEK - Saints beat Falcons 45-16; Panthers beat Buccaneers 48-16
PANTHERS OFFENSE - OVERALL (4), RUSH (3), PASS (11)
PANTHERS DEFENSE - OVERALL (22), RUSH (21), PASS (21)
SAINTS OFFENSE - OVERALL (1), RUSH (9), PASS (1)
SAINTS DEFENSE - OVERALL (26), RUSH (10), PASS (30)
STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - Panthers have won four of five games. .. Panthers QB Cam Newton has 34 total TDs (20 passing, 14 rushing), most by rookie in NFL history. ... Newton's 14 TDs rushing are most in a season by a QB. ... Newton has 3,893 yards passing, a record for a rookie. ... In last meeting, Newton had two TD's passing and one rushing. ... Newton has both passed and run for TD in eight games, tied for most in a season in NFL history. ... Panthers WR Steve Smith ranks third in NFC with 1,308 yards receiving and needs 92 yards to reach 1,400 for third time. ... Smith leads NFL with 27 catches of 20 or more yards. ... Smith had 54-yard TD in last meeting. .. WR Brandon LaFell had career-long 91-yard TD catch last week and finished with 103 yards, his first career 100-yard game. ... Saints QB Drew Brees has NFL single-season record 5,087 yards passing and enters season finale 190 yards ahead of New England's Tom Brady. ... Brees has passed for 300 or more yards in 12 games, most in a season, and in six straight, which is tied for most all-time. ... Brees has at least 20 completions in NFL-record 35 straight games. ... Brees has TD pass in 42 consecutive games, second-longest streak in NFL history behind Johnny Unitas' 47. .RB-PR-KR Darren Sproles is first player in NFL history with at least 1,200 yards from scrimmage (1,244) and at least 1,200 yards on kickoff and punt returns (1,284). ... Jimmy Graham leads NFL TEs with 91 receptions and ranks second with 1,213 yards receiving, 6 yards behind New England's Rob Gronkowski and 77 yards behind Kellen Winslow Sr.'s 1980 NFL record of 1,290 yards for a TE. ... Graham can become first TE in NFL history with at least 95 catches, 1,200 yards and 10 TDs in a season. ... WR Marques Colston, now in sixth season, has 998 yards and seeks a team-record fifth 1,000-yard season.
DETROIT (10-5) At GREEN BAY (14-1)
OPENING LINE - Lions by 3
RECORD VS. SPREAD - Detroit 7-6-2; Green Bay 10-5
SERIES RECORD - Packers lead 92-65-7
LAST MEETING - Packers beat Lions 27-15, Nov. 24
LAST WEEK - Lions beat Chargers 38-10; Packers beat Bears 35-21
LIONS OFFENSE - OVERALL (7), RUSH (29), PASS (5)
LIONS DEFENSE - OVERALL (20), RUSH (26), PASS (14)
PACKERS OFFENSE - OVERALL (5), RUSH (27), PASS (3)
PACKERS DEFENSE - OVERALL (31), RUSH (16), PASS (31)
STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - Packers have clinched home-field advantage in NFC. ... Packers QB Aaron Rodgers threw for 307 yards and two TDs in Thanksgiving Day victory at Detroit. Packers scored 17 straight points in third quarter to break game open. ... Lions DT Ndamukong Suh ejected from that game, then suspended two games, after stomping Packers OL Evan Dietrich-Smith. ... Lions have clinched first playoff berth since 1999 and will try to secure No. 5 seed. ... Detroit has won four games after trailing by 13-plus points, most in NFL history. ... Lions QB Matthew Stafford has passed for 4,518 yards and team-record 36 TDs, becoming second-youngest QB in NFL history to pass for 4,000-plus yards and 30-plus TDs in season, after Dan Marino. ... RB Kevin Smith had touchdowns rushing and receiving last week. ... WR Calvin Johnson leads NFC with 1,437 yards and 15 touchdowns receiving. Since start of 2008 season, Johnson has 44 TD catches, most in NFL. ... TE Brandon Pettigrew has 76 catches, most by TE in team history. ... DE Cliff Avril had interception return for TD last week. Avril had nine sacks, five forced fumbles, two fumble recoveries (one for TD) and an interception return for score in past nine games. Avril had sack and forced fumble in last meeting with Packers. ... Packers have scored team-record 515 points. ... Rodgers is first Packer player and fourth player in NFL to pass for 45-plus TDs in season. Rodgers leads NFL with 122.5 rating, which would be best in NFL history. He has 13 games with 100-plus rating, most in season all-time. ... WR Jordy Nelson has career highs in catches (59), yards (1,101) and TDs (12). Six of his TDs have been 35+ yards. ... WR James Jones had 65-yard TD in last meeting with Lions and had two TDs last week. ... Since 2008, Charles Woodson leads NFL with 25 interceptions and CB Tramon Williams is fourth with 19.
SAN FRANCISCO (12-3) At ST. LOUIS (2-13)
OPENING LINE - 49ers by 10 1/2
RECORD VS. SPREAD - San Francisco 11-3-1; St. Louis 2-12-1
SERIES RECORD - Tied 61-61-2
LAST MEETING - 49ers beat Rams 26-0, Dec. 4
LAST WEEK - 49ers beat Seahawks 19-17; Rams lost to Steelers 27-0
49ERS OFFENSE - OVERALL (26), RUSH (7), PASS (29)
49ERS DEFENSE - OVERALL (4), RUSH (1), PASS (17)
RAMS OFFENSE - OVERALL (31), RUSH (23), PASS (30)
RAMS DEFENSE - OVERALL (21), RUSH (32), PASS (6)
STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - 49ers have won six of seven in series, two by shutout. ... Rams coach Steve Spagnuolo 10-37 winding up third season with one year to go on contract. If Rams lose and Colts win, St. Louis will get No. 1 pick for second time in three seasons. ... Mike Singletary was fired after last season's loss at St. Louis, leading to 49ers' high-profile Jim Harbaugh hire for $25 million over five years. If Harbaugh wins finale, 13-win season would be one shy of George Seifert's franchise record rookie year of 14-2 in 1989. ... Rams offense has scored 15 touchdowns, and has been shut out twice in last four games. ... Rams defense is worst in NFL against run with opponents totaling 2,317 yards, 158 shy of franchise worst in 2008. ... A sixth 49ers road win would match team's total from 2008-2010. 49ers were 14-50 on road previous eight seasons including 1-7 last season under Singletary. ... 49ers seeking first 13-win season since 1997, and 12-win total is franchise best since 12-4 mark in 2001. ... DE Aldon Smith has 14 sacks, one-half sack shy of Jevon Kearse's NFL rookie record in 1999. ... K David Akers has NFL-record 42 FGs. ... Rams RB Steven Jackson became seventh player in NFL to rush for 1,000 yards in seven straight seasons last week. Jackson had 103 yards vs. Steelers, his fourth 100-yard game of season, but in last meeting against 49ers was held to 19 yards on 10 carries.
TENNESSEE (8-7) At HOUSTON (10-5)
OPENING LINE - Titans by 1 1/2
RECORD VS. SPREAD - Tennessee 6-8-1; Houston 9-5-1
SERIES RECORD - Titans lead 13-6
LAST MEETING - Texans beat Titans 41-7, Oct. 23
LAST WEEK - Titans beat Jaguars 23-17; Texans lost to Colts 19-16
TITANS OFFENSE - OVERALL (17), RUSH (31), PASS (12)
TITANS DEFENSE - OVERALL (17), RUSH (24), PASS (16)
TEXANS OFFENSE - OVERALL (11), RUSH (2), PASS (19)
TEXANS DEFENSE - OVERALL (2), RUSH (4), PASS (2t)
STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - Titans seeking 400th victory in franchise history. ... Titans can earn first winning record since 2008 (13-3). ... K Rob Bironas set NFL record last week by kicking field goal of 40 yards or longer in ninth consecutive game. ... RB Chris Johnson needs 14 yards rushing to reach 1,000 for fourth straight season. Johnson would be third player in team history to accomplish feat, joining Eddie George (1996-2000) and Earl Campbell (1978-81). ... Titans not flagged in victory over Jacksonville last week, their first game without a penalty since 1972. ... Tennessee has allowed 21 sacks, tied with Buffalo for league's fewest. ... QB Matt Hasselbeck has 16 touchdown passes, most by Tennessee quarterback since Steve McNair threw 16 in 2005. ... Texans defensive coordinator Wade Phillips expects to work from press box after missing two games following kidney and gall bladder surgery. ... WR Andre Johnson expected to see limited action after missing three games with left hamstring strain. ... Texans seeking first season sweep of Titans since 2004. ... Texans 5-0 in regular-season finales under Gary Kubiak. ... RBs Arian Foster topped 100 yards rushing and receiving in first meeting. Foster has rushed for over 100 yards in Houston's last two season finales. ... OLB Connor Barwin has 11 1/2 sacks and needs three more to set franchise single-season record. Mario Williams had 14 sacks in 2007. ... CB Johnathan Joseph, named to first Pro Bowl this week, has four interceptions this season, all on road. ... LB Brian Cushing has led team in tackles in 11 of 15 games. ... Rookie QB T.J. Yates makes fifth career start. ... Game will be No. 100 for Texans at Reliant Stadium.
BUFFALO (6-9) At NEW ENGLAND (12-3)
OPENING LINE - Patriots by 11 1/2
RECORD VS. SPREAD - Buffalo 7-7-1; New England 8-7
SERIES RECORD - Patriots lead 61-41-1
LAST MEETING - Bills beat Patriots 34-31, Sept. 25
LAST WEEK - Bills beat Broncos 40-14; Patriots beat Dolphins 27-24
BILLS OFFENSE - OVERALL (14), RUSH (11), PASS (15)
BILLS DEFENSE - OVERALL (24), RUSH (28), PASS (15)
PATRIOTS OFFENSE - OVERALL (2), RUSH (19), PASS (2)
PATRIOTS DEFENSE - OVERALL (32), RUSH (17), PASS (32)
STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - In first meeting in Week 3, Tom Brady threw four interceptions and Bills won on last play on Rian Lindell's 28-yard field goal. That broke Patriots 15-game winning streak over Bills. ... Patriots lead AFC with plus-14 turnover differential. Bills third at plus-4. ... Bills snapped seven-game losing streak in last game, in which they returned a punt, an interception and a fumble for touchdowns. ... C.J. Spiller rushed for 111 yards against Denver, first 100-yard rushing performance of his two-year career. He's rushed for three touchdowns in his last four games. ... Ryan Fitzpatrick needs three scoring passes to tie Joe Ferguson and Jim Kelly for third most in one season in team history with 25. ... Bills guaranteed seventh straight losing season, dating to 9-7 finish in 2004. ... Buffalo's defense improved in last two games with three interceptions, four fumble recoveries and six sacks. In previous six games, it totaled two interceptions, three fumble recoveries and five sacks. ... Stevie Johnson is 36 yards receiving away from becoming the only Bills player with at least 1,000 in consecutive seasons. ... Patriots would clinch home-field advantage throughout AFC playoffs with win or tie. If they lose, they can clinch if Baltimore and Pittsburgh lose or tie. ... Brady needs 103 yards passing to reach 5,000 for season and has chance to pass Drew Brees for NFL record. ... Patriots coach Bill Belichick can become only coach in NFL history with at least 13 regular-season wins in five different seasons. ... With four catches, Wes Welker would become second player to have at least 120 in two different seasons. Cris Carter did it in 1994 and 1995. ... Rob Gronkowski needs 72 yards receiving to set NFL single-season record for most by a tight end. Kellen Winslow set mark of 1,290 with San Diego in 1980. ... Patriots have allowed league-high 412.1 yards per game, but 14th most average points, 21.4.
NEW YORK JETS (8-7) At MIAMI (5-10)
OPENING LINE - Dolphins by 2
RECORD VS. SPREAD - Miami 9-6; New York 6-9
SERIES RECORD - Jets lead 46-43-1
LAST MEETING - Jets beat Dolphins 24-6, Oct. 17
LAST WEEK - Dolphins lost at Patriots, 27-24; Jets lost at Giants, 29-14
DOLPHINS OFFENSE - OVERALL (19), RUSH (10), PASS (22)
DOLPHINS DEFENSE - OVERALL (16), RUSH (3), PASS (26)
JETS OFFENSE - OVERALL (27), RUSH (22), PASS (21)
JETS DEFENSE - OVERALL (7), RUSH (15), PASS (5)
STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - Mark Sanchez 2-3 against Dolphins, but has thrown seven touchdown passes and one interception in those games. ... Jason Taylor, who plans to retire after season, has 16 1/2 sacks, three interceptions, three forced fumbles and three fumbles recovered against Jets. He has faced them 25 times. ... LaDainian Tomlinson has scored only two of his 145 touchdowns against Miami. ... Victory would allow Jets to finish with winning record for fourth consecutive season, a franchise record. ... Shonn Greene needs 1 yard rushing for first 1,000-yard season. ... Jets have scored TDs on 67 percent of red-zone chances, best in NFL. ... Only five teams have worse record than Dolphins, even though they've outscored opponents 310-296. They're 0-5 in games decided by field goal or less. ... Dolphins rank second to Green Bay with 38 completions of 25 yards or more. ... Reggie Bush's average of 5.0 yards per rush is highest for a 1,000-yard runner this year. Bush led NFL with 519 yards rushing in December. ... Dolphins rank third in run defense. They haven't finished that high since 1979. ... Dolphins have allowed 51 sacks, two shy of the 42-year-old franchise record
INDIANAPOLIS (2-13) At JACKSONVILLE (4-11)
OPENING LINE - Jaguars by 5
RECORD VS. SPREAD - Indianapolis 6-9; Jacksonville 5-9-1
SERIES RECORD - Colts lead 15-6
LAST MEETING - Jaguars beat Colts 17-3, Nov. 13
LAST WEEK - Colts beat Texans 19-16; Jaguars lost to Titans 23-17
COLTS OFFENSE - OVERALL (30), RUSH (24), PASS (27)
COLTS DEFENSE - OVERALL (27), RUSH (29), PASS (22)
JAGUARS OFFENSE - OVERALL (32), RUSH (13), PASS (32)
JAGUARS DEFENSE - OVERALL (5), RUSH (11), PASS (7)
STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - After seemingly having No. 1 pick in the 2012 draft wrapped up earlier this month, victory in Jacksonville could land the Colts the No. 2 spot and diminish chances of drafting Stanford QB Andrew Luck. It's been the talk this week: Should Colts rest starters and lose on purpose? Should Jaguars, who have had little success against Peyton Manning, tank in hopes of keeping Indy out of top draft spot? ``It's just talk,'' Jaguars RB Maurice Jones-Drew said. ``When I was in college (at UCLA), Stanford wasn't all that anyways, so I don't know what all the hype is. You know what I mean? I'm just saying.'' ... Colts have won two in row, both at home and with QB Dan Orlovsky starting. Orlovsky threw for 326 yards, with two touchdowns and no interceptions in wins against AFC South opponents Tennessee and Houston. ... RB Donald Brown equally effective, running 27 times for 196 yards in those victories. ... WR Reggie Wayne needs 113 yards receiving to reach 1,000 for eighth consecutive season. Wayne has 1,599 yards receiving against Jacksonville, his most against any team. ... Jones-Drew leads NFL with 1,437 yards rushing, 128 more that Philadelphia's LeSean McCoy. Jones-Drew needs 136 yards on ground to surpass Fred Taylor's franchise record (1,572) set in 2003. Taylor texted MJD earlier in week, telling him to get it done. ... Jones-Drew has run for at least 84 yards in 14 of 15 games, but his season high is 122 against Carolina. ... Game will be final one for outgoing owner Wayne Weaver, who was instrumental in landing an NFL franchise in Jacksonville in 1993. Weaver sold franchise for $760 million to Illinois businessman Shahid Khan.
WASHINGTON (5-10) At PHILADELPHIA (7-8)
OPENING LINE - Eagles by 9
RECORD VS. SPREAD - Washington 7-8; Philadelphia 7-8
SERIES RECORD - Redskins lead 80-68-5
LAST MEETING - Eagles beat Redskins 20-13, Oct. 16
LAST WEEK - Redskins lost to Vikings 33-26; Eagles beat Cowboys 20-7
REDSKINS OFFENSE - OVERALL (16) RUSH (26), PASS (14)
REDSKINS DEFENSE - OVERALL (13), RUSH (19) PASS (11)
EAGLES OFFENSE - OVERALL (3), RUSH (5), PASS (10)
EAGLES DEFENSE - OVERALL (8), RUSH (14), PASS (8)
STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - Eagles will finish 5-1 against NFC East with victory. ... In last three games, Eagles have held opponents to 36 points, 683 total net yards, 12 for 45 (26.7 percent) on third downs and 1 for 6 on fourth downs. Their 16 sacks are their highest three-game total since also posting 16 in first three games of 2006 season. ... Rookie K Alex Henery has connected on 14 consecutive field-goal attempts, which is fifth-longest streak in team history. Henery is 22 for 25 this season (88 percent), which is second-highest percentage in team history behind David Akers' 88.2 percent (30 for 34) in 2002. ... QB Michael Vick needs 32 yards passing to reach 3,000. It would be his second consecutive season with 3,000 yards passing and 500 yards rushing. Only Randall Cunningham had more - three times from 1988-90. ... Redskins 2-9 since 3-1 start. A 20-13 loss to Eagles started six-game losing streak. ... WR Jabar Gaffney needs 81 yards receiving for his first career 1,000-yard season. ... QB Rex Grossman (2,895 yards) needs 299 yards passing to set a single-season career high. ... LB London Fletcher leads NFL with 163 tackles, but wasn't named to Pro Bowl. ... Grossman has thrown at least one interception in 11 straight starts. ... Washington has committed at least one turnover in 29 straight games, longest active NFL streak.
SAN DIEGO (7-8) At OAKLAND (8-7)
OPENING LINE - Raiders by 3
RECORD VS. SPREAD - San Diego 5-10; Oakland 8-5-2
SERIES RECORD - Raiders lead 58-44-2
LAST MEETING - Raiders beat Chargers 24-17, Nov. 10
LAST WEEK - Chargers lost to Lions 38-10; Raiders beat Chiefs 16-13 OT
CHARGERS OFFENSE - OVERALL (6), RUSH (17), PASS (6)
CHARGERS DEFENSE - OVERALL (11), RUSH (20), PASS (10)
RAIDERS OFFENSE - OVERALL (13), RUSH (6), PASS (13)
RAIDERS DEFENSE - OVERALL (29), RUSH (27), PASS (25)
STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - Raiders have won last three meetings between AFC West rivals after losing previous 13. ... Oakland can win division with win and Denver loss or make wild-card with win, Cincinnati loss and either Tennessee loss or Jets win. ... San Diego trying to avoid first losing season since 2003. ... QB Philip Rivers needs 186 yards passing to become fifth player with back-to-back 4,500-yard seasons. ... Chargers have allowed opponents to convert 48.4 percent of third downs, worst rate in the league. ... Raiders have won 10 of 12 division games but 0-2 at home against AFC West teams this season. ... QB Carson Palmer has completed 71.5 percent of passes for 1,322 yards, 11 TDs and two INTs for 129.5 passer rating in four starts vs. Chargers. ... Raiders need four penalties for 11 yards to break the records of 158 for 1,304 yards by the 1998 Chiefs. ... RB Michael Bush needs 89 yards rushing for first 1,000-yard season in his career. He had 157 yards rushing and 85 receiving in first meeting for most scrimmage yards by a Raider since Art Powell in 1963.
KANSAS CITY (6-9) At DENVER (8-7)
OPENING LINE - Broncos by 3
RECORD VS. SPREAD - Kansas City 8-7; Denver 7-8
SERIES RECORD - Chiefs lead 55-48
LAST MEETING - Broncos won 17-10, Nov. 13
LAST WEEK - Chiefs lost to Raiders 16-13 OT; Broncos lost to Bills 40-14
CHIEFS OFFENSE - OVERALL (25), RUSH (12), PASS (25)
CHIEFS DEFENSE - OVERALL (15), RUSH (20), PASS (9)
BRONCOS OFFENSE - OVERALL (23), RUSH (1), PASS (31)
BRONCOS DEFENSE - OVERALL (23), RUSH (25), PASS (20)
STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - Romeo Crennel 0-2 lifetime against Denver and John Fox 3-0 in his career against Kansas City. ... Last time teams met in Denver, on Nov. 14, 2010, Kyle Orton threw career-high four TDs against Chiefs and Tim Tebow also threw first career TD pass. ... Orton started 33 games with Broncos before release Nov. 22, passing for 8,263 yards with 49 TDs, 27 INTs and 86.4 passer rating. In two starts with KC, Orton averaging 299.5 yards passing. ... Chiefs RB Dexter McCluster had career-high 89 yards receiving last week. ... Dwayne Bowe (1,066) has topped 1,000 yards receiving for third time. ... LB Tamba Hali needs two sacks to join Neil Smith and Derrick Thomas as only Chiefs to register 14 sacks in two seasons. ... With win, Broncos reach playoffs for first time since `05. ... Tebow 7-3 as starter in `11 with 16 TDs. In two career games vs. Chiefs, Tebow has two TD passes, no INTs and passer rating of 102.8 with two TD runs. ... Broncos averaging NFL-best 161.1 yards on ground. ... RB Willis McGahee (1,054) last week became second player in league history to record 1,000-yard seasons for three different teams (Buffalo, Baltimore). ... In last meeting, RB Lance Ball had career-best 96 yards rushing. ... Since Week 13, WR Demaryius Thomas tied with Detroit WR Calvin Johnson for NFL lead with 103.5 yards receiving average. ... WR Eric Decker's 56-yard TD catch that sealed 17-10 win at Kansas City earlier this season was career-long for him and one of only two completions on day for Tebow as he threw eight passes and Broncos ran 55 times. ... LB Von Miller leads AFC rookies and ranks second to San Francisco's Aldon Smith (14) among NFL rookies with 11 1/2 sacks despite playing past month with cast to immobilize right wrist and thumb. Injury cost him a game and he's had one sack last three weeks. ... DE Elvis Dumervil aiming for ninth straight game with sack. He and Miller were both named to the Pro Bowl.
SEATTLE (7-8) At ARIZONA (7-8)
OPENING LINE - Cardinals by 3
RECORD VS. SPREAD - Seattle 10-4-1; Arizona 7-7-1
SERIES RECORD - Cardinals lead 13-12
LAST MEETING - Seahawks beat Cardinals 13-10, Sept. 25
LAST WEEK - 49ers beat Seahawks 19-17, Bengals beat Cardinals 23-16
SEAHAWKS OFFENSE - OVERALL ( 28), RUSH (21), PASS (24)
SEAHAWKS DEFENSE - OVERALL (9), RUSH (13), PASS (13)
CARDINALS OFFENSE - OVERALL (23), RUSH (25), PASS (17)
CARDINALS DEFFENSE - OVERALL (19), RUSH (18), PASS (18)
STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - Seattle has beaten Arizona three times in a row. ... Last year Seahawks won at Arizona for first time in five tries. ... Seahawks have allowed 10 touchdowns in second half, second-fewest in NFL. ... RB Marshawn Lynch has scored TDs in last 11 games, a franchise record. ... With victory, Seattle would have its best regular-season record (8-8) since 2007. ... Seahawks have rushed for 100 yards or more in seven of last eight games. .... ... Seattle started season 2-6, Arizona 1-6. ... Cardinals 5-2 at home, including wins over Dallas and San Francisco. .. Arizona's defense has allowed 10 TDs in opponents' 103 possessions over last eight games. ... Loss at Cincinnati was Cardinals' fourth by seven or fewer points. ... Arizona has overcome second-half deficits in all seven wins. ... In last eight games, Arizona has been outscored 94-30 in first half but has outscored opponents 116-51 in second half and OT. ... In last four games, Arizona's defense has shut out opponents. In that stretch, Cardinals have outscored opponents 49-0 in fourth quarter and overtime.
TAMPA BAY (4-11) At ATLANTA (9-6)
OPENING LINE - Falcons by 10 1/2
RECORD VS. SPREAD - Atlanta 7-7-1; Tampa Bay 4-11
SERIES RECORD - Buccaneers lead 19-17
LAST MEETING - Buccaneers beat Falcons 6-13, Sept. 25
LAST WEEK - Falcons lost to Saints 45-16; Buccaneers lost to Panthers 48-16
BUCS OFFENSE - OVERALL (21), RUSH (30), PASS (16)
BUCS DEFENSE - OVERALL (30), RUSH (21), PASS (24)
FALCONS OFFENSE - OVERALL (10), RUSH (20), PASS (7)
FALCONS DEFENSE - OVERALL (12), RUSH (8), PASS (19)
STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - Falcons 25-6 at Georgia Dome since Mike Smith hired as coach in 2008. Only New England and Baltimore have won more home games during that stretch. ... Atlanta in playoffs two straight years for first time in franchise history. ... Tampa Bay will attempt to sweep Falcons for fourth time since NFC South created in 2002. ... Bucs victory in September snapped five-game series losing streak. ... Tampa Bay has lost nine straight overall. ... Josh Freeman needs 82 yards passing to become first Tampa Bay QB with consecutive 3,400-yard seasons. He is 1-4 against Falcons with 56.8 passer rating that includes pair of interceptions in Week 3. ... CB Ronde Barber can pass retired LB Derrick Brooks with 224th game played for Tampa Bay, a franchise record. Barber has made 199 consecutive starts, another franchise high. ... Falcons have won four of last six. ... QB Matt Ryan coming off season-high 373 yards passing in blowout loss at New Orleans. His 52 attempts matched season high from Nov. 13 overtime home loss to Saints. ... Falcons 27-2 when RB Michael Turner has at least 21 rushing attempts. ... WR Roddy White leads NFC with 96 catches and has 1,000-plus yards receiving for franchise-best five straight years. ... TE Tony Gonzalez needs 53 yards receiving to reach 13,383 and pass Torry Holt for 10th place on NFL career list. ... DE John Abraham needs 1 1/2 sacks for seventh season with 10 or more.
BALTIMORE (11-4) At CINCINNATI (9-6)
OPENING LINE - Ravens by 3
RECORD VS. SPREAD - Baltimore 7-7-1; Cincinnati 8-5-2
SERIES RECORD - Ravens lead 17-14
LAST MEETING - Ravens beat Bengals 31-24, Nov. 20
LAST WEEK - Ravens beat Browns 20-14; Bengals beat Cardinals 23-16
RAVENS OFFENSE - OVERALL (15), RUSH (14), PASS (18)
RAVENS DEFENSE - OVERALL (3), RUSH (2), PASS (4)
BENGALS OFFENSE - OVERALL (24), RUSH (18), PASS (20)
BENGALS DEFENSE - OVERALL (6), RUSH (5), PASS (12)
STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - With win, Ravens can clinch third AFC North title (2003, 2006) and go 6-0 in division for first time. ... Bengals can clinch wild card and third playoff appearance in last 21 years with win. ... Ravens have lost five of last six in Cincinnati. Overall this season, they went 8-0 at home and 3-4 on road. ... A win would give Ravens 12 regular season victories for second straight season and third time in club history. ... Baltimore has 47 sacks, most in AFC. Cincinnati has 44, four short of club record. ... Joe Flacco can set club record with ninth career 300-yard passing game, moving one ahead of Vinny Testaverde. Flacco also would tie club's single-season record of five. He has thrown a career-high 523 passes this season, 27 shy of Testaverde's club record from 1996. ... RB Ray Rice leads NFL with 1,869 yards from scrimmage. ... RB Ricky Williams needs 19 yards to become 26th player to run for 10,000. ... LB Terrell Suggs has career-high 13 sacks, two shy of Peter Boulware's club record in 2001. ... Bengals WR Jerome Simpson coming off two big games against Baltimore. He had career-high 12 catches for 123 yards last season, and career-high 152 yards on eight catches last month. ... QB Andy Dalton has thrown 20 TD passes. Only other rookies with more were Peyton Manning (26) and Charley Conerly (22). ... Dalton threw for 373 yards, Bengals rookie record, in loss to Baltimore. He also had three interceptions. ... A.J. Green didn't play at Baltimore last month because of knee injury. He leads NFL receivers with 11 catches of 35 yards or more. Green leads NFL rookies with 63 catches and 1,031 yards, a club rookie record.
PITTSBURGH (11-4) At CLEVELAND (4-11)
OPENING LINE - Off
RECORD VS. SPREAD - Pittsburgh 7-8; Cleveland 6-8-1
SERIES RECORD - Pittsburgh leads 63-56
LAST MEETING - Steelers beat Browns 14-3, Dec. 8
LAST WEEK - Steelers beat Rams 27-0; Browns lost to Ravens 20-14
STEELERS OFFENSE - OVERALL (11), RUSH (16), PASS (9)
STEELERS DEFENSE - OVERALL (1), RUSH (9), PASS (1)
BROWNS OFFENSE - OVERALL (29), RUSH (28), PASS (23)
BROWNS DEFENSE - OVERALL (10), RUSH (30), PASS (2T)
STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - AFC North rivals meet with much on line for Steelers. ... Steelers can win division title for fourth time in five years with win and Baltimore loss at Cincinnati. ... Steelers can clinch home-field advantage throughout playoffs with win and losses by Ravens and New England Patriots. ... Steelers have won 15 of last 16 vs. Browns. ... Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger may not play because of high ankle sprain suffered on sack against Browns three weeks ago. ... Backup QB Charlie Batch will start if Roethlisberger's not ready. ... Steelers coach Mike Tomlin is 8-1 vs. Browns. ... Steelers RB Rashard Mendenhall needs 110 yards rushing for third straight 1,000-yard season. ... Steelers WR Hines Ward needs five receptions to become eighth player in NFL history with 1,000 career catches. ... In last meeting, Steelers LB James Harrison delivered helmet-to-helmet hit on Browns QB Colt McCoy late in fourth quarter. NFL suspended Harrison for one game. ... Steelers have won 11 of past 15 road games. ... Browns hoping to end another dreadful season on high note. ... Browns have lost five straight and eight of nine. ... Browns 0-5 in division and 3-20 in past three seasons. ... QB Seneca Wallace expected to make third straight start in place of McCoy. ... Browns 4-23 vs. Steelers since 1999. ... Browns 4-1 in home season finales since 2002. ... Browns P Brad Maynard only punter in league not to record touchback this season.
DALLAS (8-7) At NEW YORK GIANTS (8-7)
OPENING LINE - Giants by 3
RECORD VS. SPREAD - Dallas 5-9-1; New York 6-8-1
SERIES RECORD - Cowboys lead 56-41-2
LAST MEETING - Giants beat Cowboys 37-34, Dec. 11
LAST WEEK - Cowboys lost to Eagles 20-7; Giants beat Jets 29-14
COWBOYS OFFENSE - OVERALL (9), RUSH (15), PASS (8)
COWBOYS DEFENSE - OVERALL (14), RUSH (7), PASS (23)
GIANTS OFFENSE - OVERALL (8), RUSH (32), PASS (4)
GIANTS DEFENSE - OVERALL (28), RUSH (22), PASS (27)
STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - Winner takes NFC East title and get conference's No. 4 seed and first-round home game vs. either Atlanta or Detroit. ... Will be first time NFC East winner has less than 10 wins since division created in 1970. The lone exception was strike-shortened 1982 season, when teams played nine games and division champ won eight. ...Cowboys QB Tony Romo, who bruised right hand in last week's loss, needs 105 yards to reach 4,000 for third time in career. He is only Dallas quarterback to throw for that much. ...In last six starts against Giants, he has 112.4 quarterback rating, including five greater than 100. ...RB Felix Jones rushed for 106 yards against New York earlier this month. ...TE Jason Witten needs 127 yards receiving to reach 1,000 for third consecutive season. ...WR Laurent Robinson has nine touchdowns in last nine games. ...LB DeMarcus Ware has 24 sacks in last 18 games and 90 since 2006, most in NFL. ...Sean Lee's four interceptions tied for most among NFL linebackers. ...Giants QB Eli Manning has won four of last five games vs. Dallas. He has franchise-record 4,587 yards passing this season and his 14 fourth-quarter TDs are tied for most in league history. ...Manning passed for 400 yards and rallied New York from 12-point deficit with two TD passes in the final 3:14 on Dec. 11. ...RB Ahmad Bradshaw had two touchdown runs last week. ...RB Brandon Jacobs rushed for 101 yards and two touchdowns in game in Dallas. ...WR Victor Cruz has team-record 1,358 yards receiving this season, and set team-record with 99-yard catch and run vs. Jets last week. ....WR Hakeem Nicks, battling hamstring injury, has 22 catches for 353 yards (117.7 per game) and two touchdowns in last three games vs. Dallas. ...DE Jason Pierre-Paul, fourth in NFL with 15 1/2 sacks, blocked game-tying field goal attempt on final play of last game with Cowboys. ...CB Corey Webster has career-high six interceptions.
Tip Sheet - Week 17
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
The NFL regular season comes to a close on Sunday with two playoff spots on the line inside the AFC. The Broncos and Raiders are battling for the AFC West title, while the Bengals control their own destiny for the final Wild Card spot. We'll begin with the team that has made the AFC Title game two straight years, but needs help on the final day.
Jets at Dolphins (-2½, 41)
New York was one win away from the Super Bowl each of the last two seasons, as the Jets look for a third straight playoff appearance. The task won't be easy for Rex Ryan's squad, who travels to South Florida to take on a Dolphins' team that has won five of eight games since an 0-7 start.
The Jets (8-7) lost their second straight game since a three-game winning streak, a 29-14 home defeat to the rival Giants. Many things need to fall New York's way on Sunday, as the Jets need a victory, plus losses by the Bengals, Titans, and Raiders to clinch a playoff spot. New York is just 2-5 SU/ATS on the road this season, while cashing the 'over' five times on the highway.
The Dolphins (5-10) are the hottest ATS team in the NFL over the last nine weeks with an 8-1 ATS mark. Miami squandered a 17-0 lead in a 27-24 defeat at New England, but the Dolphins cashed as nine-point underdogs. The last time the Dolphins and Jets hooked up at Met Life Stadium, New York came away with a 24-6 Monday night triumph as seven-point favorites.
Ravens (-2, 38) at Bengals
There is no way anyone could have predicted Cincinnati would finish at .500, much less qualify for the postseason. The Bengals opened the season with a win total at seven, but that number was quickly bet down to 5½. Marvin Lewis' team can complete a solid regular season with a victory over the Ravens, who need a win and a Patriots' loss to clinch home-field advantage in the AFC playoffs.
Baltimore (11-4) needs to capture the top seed after finishing with an 8-0 home record in the regular season. However, the Ravens are just 3-4 SU/ATS away from Baltimore, including road losses at Jacksonville, Seattle, and Tennessee. However, John Harbaugh's squad knocked off the Bengals, 31-24 in Week 10 as seven-point 'chalk.'
The Bengals (9-6) control their own destiny after taking care of business in victories over the Rams and Cardinals. Cincinnati started the season as a bettor's dream at 7-1 ATS, but the Bengals have been burning money recently with a 1-4-2 ATS record the last seven games. Cincinnati is 5-1 to the 'over' the previous six home contests, while Baltimore has cashed the 'over' in three of the last four road games.
Chiefs at Broncos (-3½, 37)
The game that will decide AFC West title is loaded with plenty of drama as Kansas City heads to Denver. Kyle Orton makes his first start against his former team after getting released by Denver in late November, as the Chiefs can knock Tim Tebow and the Broncos out of the playoffs. However, Denver can still get into the playoffs with an Oakland loss to San Diego.
The Broncos (8-7) started the season at 1-4 with Orton at quarterback, but the change to Tebow invigorated life into Denver with a 7-3 run the last 10 games. John Fox's club slipped up the last two weeks with blowout losses to the Patriots and Bills, while allowing 81 points in those defeats. The Broncos shut down the Chiefs' offense in a 13-10 victory at Arrowhead Stadium in November, as Tebow completed just two passes in the win.
The Chiefs (6-9) pulled the biggest shocker of the season by knocking off the 13-0 Packers two weeks ago as 11-point home underdogs. However, Kansas City's slim playoff hopes were dashed in an overtime setback to Oakland last Sunday, the eighth straight game in which the Chiefs scored 19 points or less.
Chargers at Raiders (-3, 47½)
This was supposed to be San Diego's season to bounce back after missing the playoffs in 2010. A 4-1 start went down the tubes following six consecutive losses, as the Bolts were officially eliminated after getting blown out at Detroit last Sunday. Now, San Diego is in the spoiler role trying to take down its arch-rival at the Black Hole.
The Raiders (8-7) saved their season with a 16-13 triumph at Kansas City last week, halting a three-game losing skid. Oakland can pull off the season sweep of San Diego with a win on Sunday, as the Raiders held off the Chargers, 24-17 as seven-point 'dogs in Week 10. The Silver and Black has covered five straight games in this series, including three consecutive outright victories.
The Chargers (7-8) are one of the worst ATS teams in the league by covering only five games this season. One of San Diego's issues last season was a 3-5 SU/ATS record away from Southern California, while not improving on that number in 2011 with a 2-5 SU/ATS road mark.
NFL Week 17
Redskins (5-10) @ Eagles (7-8) - Philly is eliminated from playoffs; they stayed focused for easy win in Dallas last week, their third straight win (by 16-26-13 points), but they’re just 2-5 at home this year (2-4 as home favorites)- how much do they care about finishing 8-8, on 4-game roll? Redskins lost eight of last ten games; they’re 3-3 as road underdog, losing away games by 2-13-23-11 points- they won last two road games. Home team lost eight of last ten series games; Redskins won four of last six visits here, but lost 20-13 at Philly 20-13 (+1) in first meeting, getting outrushed 192-42, game that snapped Philly’ 4-game skid. Series has been swept seven of last nine years. Five of last six Washington games went over the total.
Buccaneers (4-11) @ Falcons (9-6) - If Lions lose at Lambeau, Falcons move up to #5 seed with win and avoid Saints in first round. Atlanta won five of last six series games, with four of five wins by 6 or less points; they lost 16-13 at Tampa (+1.5) in Week 3, getting outrushed 115-30. Would expect more running from Falcons, who ran ball only 15 times with 51 dropbacks in first meeting- they had only one TD in four visits to red zone. Tampa lost last three visits here, by 3-3-6 points, but ’11 Bucs have fallen apart, losing last nine games (0-5 vs spread last five)- they’re 2-5 as road underdog, losing away games by 45-6-11-9-6-27-32 points. Atlanta is 5-2 at home, 2-0-2 as home favorite, winning at by 4-14-6-10-27 points, losing only to Packers/Saints. Three of Buccaneers’ last four games went over total.
49ers (12-3) @ Rams (2-13) - San Francisco needs win here to secure bye in playoffs. 49ers’ +25 turnover ratio is amazing; they’re 5-2 on road, winning by 5-1-6-8-2 points; they’re 10-3 in last thirteen series games, with average total in last nine, 35.4; they’ve won three of last five visits here, winning by 1-1-22 points. SF blanked Rams 26-0 (-13) in first meeting four weeks ago, outrushing St Louis 144-31, outgaining them 389-157. End of line for another dismal Rams’ season (lost last six games (0-5-1 vs spread), 1-3-1 as home dog); if they lose they can still get #1 pick. Under is 8-1-1 in last ten 49er games, 6-2 in last eight St Louis games. Clemens has done his best as #3 QB coming in off street, but he is in a hopeless situation against this hungry, opportunistic defense.
Bears (7-8) @ Vikings (3-12) - McCown was marked improvement at QB for Bears last week, but they've still lost five games in row (0-4 vs spread the last four). Vikings snapped 6-game skid with win at Washington, but lost Peterson/ Ponder to injury; they’re 1-6 at home, losing their last four by 6-6-3-22 points, allowing 34.4 ppg. Minnesota is 6-4-1 as an underdog, 2-2 at home. Chicago won last four series games, crushing Vikings 39-10 (-3) in Week 6, outrushing them 119-53 and running kick back for TD; home side won seven of last eight series games, with series split in six of last nine years- Bears lost seven of last nine visits to Metrodome. Average total in last six series games is 58.8, 49.3 in last three visits here. Chance for Vikings' mobile QB Webb to audition for #1 job next year
Lions (10-5) @ Packers (14-1) - Doubt Rodgers plays much in this game and Lions have playoff game next week, so is the under worth a look, as both clubs look to get this over with quick? Detroit is giddy after clinching first playoff berth in dozen years; they’re on road in playoffs next week, but also haven’t won in Lambeau since ’91, with four of last five losses here by 8+ points- will they try to win here? Will Packers try to win? Green Bay is 11-1 in last dozen series games, winning 27-15 (-6) on Thanksgiving, despite being outrushed 136-53, outgained by 60 yards. Lions wontheir last three games, scoring 34-28-38 points, with 10 TDs on last 30 drives. Six of Detroit’s seven road games went over the total.
Panthers (6-9) @ Saints (12-3) - Brees already has passing record; should the 49ers get out to big lead in their game, Saints could pull starters as they'll have home playoff game next week. Panthers won four of last five games, with all four wins by 8+ points; they’re 5-4 as underdog, 3-3 on road, winning last three away games after losing first four by 7-5-14-14 points. Carolina split its four games in domes. Saints won four of last five series games, winning first meeting 30-27 (-6.5) in Week 5, despite being outrushed 162-101; NO converted 12-17 on 3rd down, passed for 343 yards. Carolina lost last two visits here, 30-20/16-14; three of their last four visits here were decided by 3 or less points. Five of last six Carolina games went over the total.
Titans (8-7) @ Texans (10-5) - Houston is locked into AFC #3 seed, so this game is meaningless as Texans prep for first playoff game next week; they crushed Tennessee 41-7 (+2.5) in Week 7, their 4th win in last 13 series games, outrushing Titans 222-53, outgaining them 518-148, averaging 12.8 ypa, but that was with Schaub at QB. Houston lost last two games, scored just 16.5 ppg in Yates’ four starts; they’re 5-2 SU at home, 2-2 vs spread as underdog this year. Tennessee is 3-4 on road, losing at Indy in only game as road favorite (2-5 overall as favorite). Titans won six of last nine visits to their old city, with average total in last three, 27.3. Under is 8-0-1 in last nine Titan games, 4-1 in last five Texan tilts.
Ravens (11-4) @ Bengals (9-6) - Baltimore needs win to clinch division title and 1st-round bye; they’ve lost five of last six visits here, losing 17-7/15-10 in last two visits. Bengals need win to clinch playoff berth- they lost 31-24 (+7) at Baltimore six weeks ago, outgaining Ravens by 110 yards but throwing three picks, setting up two Baltimore TD drives of less than 40 yards. Cincy is 0-2-1 in last three games as underdog after covering first five tries this year; they’re 4-3 at home, with last three home games decided by total of 11 points. Ravens are just 3-4 on road, 2-4 as road favorite- they’ve won five of last six games overall, with three of last four wins by 10+ points. Four of last five Baltimore games stayed under total.
Steelers (11-4) @ Browns (4-11) - If Ravens won their game, Steelers have playoff game next week, would likely hold Big Ben out of this 4:15 start; if Ravens lose, this game is for home playoff game, so he would be more likely to play. Cleveland lost last five games but covered four of last six; five of their last seven games were decided by 6 or less points- they covered four of last five as a dog. Pitt won 16 of last 17 series games, going 10-1 here, with four of last six wins by 14+ points- they beat Browns 14-3 (-14) in Week 14 Thursday nighter despite two red zone turnovers, outrushing Cleveland 147-98, while averaging 10.8 ypa. Under is 8-2-1 in last 11 Cleveland games, 5-0-1 in Steelers’ last six.
Colts (2-13) @ Jaguars (4-11) - If Indy loses, they get #1 pick in draft and have big decision to make, but they’ve won last two games after 0-13 start to put that option in question, allowing two TDs on 25 drives. Colts are 3-4 as road underdog but covered last two away games- they’ve lost road games by 27-7-10-55-17-7-14 points. Jaguars are 1-3 as favorites this year, 3-4 SU at home, with wins by 2-5-27 points- they won first meeting 17-3 at Indy, outrushing Colts 141-84, holding Painter to 3.8 ypa, but Orlovsky has been big step up at QB for Indy, and Jax is just 1-5 since that win. Over is 3-0-1 in Jaguars’ last four games, 2-6 in Indy’s last eight. Indianapolis covered its last four games overall.
Jets (8-7) @ Dolphins (5-10) - How will Jets react to losing local showdown with Giants last week, with playoff berth likely on line? Gang Green is 0-6 when they score 21 or less points. Miami covered seven of last eight games, winning three of last four at home, allowing 14.3 ppg- they’re 5-3 in last eight games after 0-7 start, as Moore has proven to be competent QB; Dolphins are 3-1 as favorite this year- all five of their wins are by 7+ points. Visitors won six of last eight series games, but Fish (+7) lost 24-6 at Swamp in Week 6, converting just 2-13 on 3rd down, and kicking two FGs on three red zone drives. Jets won four of last five visits here, with average total in last four, 49.8. Three of last four Miami games, four of last five Jet games went over total.
Bills (6-9) @ Patriots (12-3) - Pats rallied from down 17-0 at half to win last week and stay atop AFC; they need win here to clinch home field thru AFC playoffs. Buffalo (+7.5) upset New England 34-31 in Week 3, picking Brady off four times while ending 15-game series skid; they’ve lost last 10 visits here (25-24/38-30 last two years) with four of last six losses here by 8 or less points. Bills snapped 7-game skid by beating Denver last week; they’re 2-3-1 as road underdog, losing away games by 3-3-37-27-4-27 points. Patriots allowed 20+ points in last five games; they’re 3-4 as home favorite, covering one of last five, with home wins by 14-9-4-31-73 points. Six of last even New England games went over the total.
Chargers (7-8) @ Raiders (8-7) - San Diego won three of last four games but is 2-5 on road, laying major egg in Detroit last week with season on line; their only road wins are over Orton-led Broncos and dismal Jaguars but they can KO Raiders from playoffs with win here. Oakland can make playoffs with win and if Denver loses at home to Orton-led Chiefs. Raiders (+7) won 34-27 at San Diego in Week 10, third straight series win, running ball for 191 yards while averaging 13.5 ypa- this series has been swept the last seven years, as San Diego won six of last seven visits here. Oakland lost three of last four games, is 3-4 at home—five of their last six games went over the total, as have six of seven Charger road games.
Chiefs (6-9) @ Broncos (8-7) - Denver clinches unlikely division title with win here, but QB they cut in November (Orton) starts against them; Broncos (+3) won 17-10 at Arrowhead in Week 10, running ball for 244 yards while Tebow was just 2-8 passing the whole day, as visitor won for just 4th time in last 18 series games. Chiefs lost nine of last 10 visits here, with eight losses by 7+ points- average total in their last four visits here is 58.8. Broncos allowed 41-40 points in losing last two games; they’re 3-4 at home, with wins by 2-4-3 points- they’re 1-3 as a favorite this year, 0-3 at home. Nine of Chiefs’ last ten games stayed under total; three of last four Denver game went over. No scoreboard watching here; Broncos win and they’re in.
Seahawks (7-8) @ Cardinals (7-8) - Both teams were eliminated with streak-ending losses last week; Seattle is 5-2 in last seven games, covering six of last eight- they’re 9-1-1 vs spread in last 11 games as an underdog, winning last two away games, at St Louis/Chicago. Arizona won six of last eight games, winning last four home games- they were down 23-0 in 4th quarter at Cincy last week but wide open WR fell down on last play, or they would’ve tied game in last minute. Cardinals are 2-2 as favorite this year- they lost 13-10 (-3) at Seattle in Week 3, second of six straight Arizona losses. Four of last five Seattle games went over; under is 5-1-2 in last eight Arizona games. No playoff berths on line here, just a divisional rivalry.
Cowboys (8-7) @ Giants (8-7) - NFC East title on line here in game moved to primetime for NBC; Giants (+3.5) won wild 37-34 game in JerryWorld three weeks ago, rallying back late from down 10, their sixth win in last eight series games, with average total in last five meetings, 63.8. Season series was split four of last six years; Cowboys are 3-2 in last five visits here. Manning passed for 400 yards (8.5 ypa) in earlier game, but Romo threw for 9.8 ypa in wild affair. Dallas is 3-4 on road, with three of seven games going into OT- they started season here with 27-24 loss to Jets. Pokes are 2-2 as underdogs, losing away games by 3-4-27-6 points. Giants are 0-4-1 vs spread in last five games as favorite. Four of last five Dallas games stayed under the total.
NFL Poolies Cheat Sheet: Week 17 Betting Notes
By Colin Kelly
Covers.com
We’ve finally reached Week 17 of the NFL’s regular season. The good news is the majority of Sunday’s contests have playoff implications of some sort. The bad news is there won’t be nearly as much NFL to fill our weekends after this week’s slate. To the NFL poolies cheat sheet we go:
Chicago at Minnesota (-1)
Why Bears cover: There is nothing on the line here. That said, Luke McCown looked better at QB against Green Bay than Caleb Hanie looked in previous four losses. Vikes have no Adrian Peterson until at least August, and possibly no Christian Ponder.
Why Vikings cover: Ponder could be out, but frankly, Joe Webb has looked good in his limited time this season and paced a win at Washington last week. The Bears are on skids of 0-5 straight up and 1-4 against the spread.
Total (40.5): With both these offenses reeling from injuries, the under could be worth a look. However, Chicago’s on over runs of 6-2 overall, 9-2 in January, and 5-1 vs. losing teams. Minnesota’s on over streaks of 4-0 overall, 5-0 inside NFC North, and 4-0 at home.
Tennessee (-3) at Houston
Why Titans cover: They need a litany of things to happen to reach the playoffs, but first and foremost, they have to win. Houston, meanwhile, is locked into the No. 3 seed as the AFC South champ and will likely rest key players such as RB Arian Foster.
Why Texans cover: They are on several positive ATS stretches – 6-1-1 overall, 4-0-1 in division play, 5-1 vs. winning teams, and 4-0-1 in regular-season finals. Meanwhile the Titans are on ATS slides of 1-5 as road chalk, 1-4 in division action, and 3-7 coming off a SU win.
Total (40.5): Tennessee’s really helping under bettors. The Titans have the under on runs of 8-0-1 overall and 4-0 on highway. The total has gone low in six of Houston’s last seven at home. However, in this rivalry, the over is 8-3 in the last 11 clashes.
Buffalo at New England (-11.5)
Why Bills cover: They snapped a seven-game SU nosedive (1-6 ATS) by routing Denver last week and they were one of only three teams to beat New England all season. The Pats are in ATS ruts of 5-16 when laying more than 10 points and are 1-5-1 in January.
Why Patriots cover: Unlike in September, when they blew a 21-0 lead and lost 34-31 at Buffalo, this team will be focused with a shot at the No. 1 seed and home field throughout the AFC playoffs. And they’ll be looking for revenge too. The Pats are 9-2-1 ATS in their last dozen in Week 17. The Bills are 2-6 ATS in their last eight overall.
Total (51): Both these teams are on bundle of over streaks and New England will surely be looking to score a lot in an effort to just bury its division rival. But this rivalry has tended to produce unders, with total going low 18 of the last 25 meetings.
Indianapolis at Jacksonville (-3.5)
Why Colts cover: This squad is steamrolling toward the offseason, with two straight wins and covers after dropping its first 13 games of the season SU. The road team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine Colts-Jags games.
Why Jaguars cover: Jacksonville has the only real game-breaker in this contest, with NFL’s leading rusher in Maurice Jones-Drew. Jags work well when laying points, at 6-1 ATS last seven in that role and 5-1 ATS in the last six as a home chalk.
Total (37): A pretty low number, but these two offenses warrant that with Indy 28th at 15.3 ppg and Jacksonville 29th at 14.9 ppg. The under is 6-1 in the Colts’ last seven overall and 5-0 in their last five division outings. In this AFC South rivalry the over is 6-2 in the last eight overall and 5-1 in the last six in Jacksonville, but Peyton Manning played in all but one of those games.
San Francisco (-10.5) at St. Louis
Why 49ers cover: With the No. 2 seed and a first-round playoff bye on the line, San Fran should bring its “A” game to the Edward Jones Dome. The Niners are also the best team in the NFL against the spread, going 12-2-1 ATS this year, while Rams are the polar opposite at 2-12-1 ATS. The Rams can’t score, averaging league-worst 11.1 ppg.
Why Rams cover: There is almost nothing – other than perhaps RB Steven Jackson – that this team can hang its horns on. However, the home squad in this NFC West rivalry is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.
Total (35.5): The Niners have the league’s stingiest scoring defense, yielding just 13.5 ppg, and San Fran has hit under in five of last six games. The under is also 9-3 in Rams’ last 12, and in this rivalry, the total has gone low in eight of last 11 overall and four of last five in Gateway City.
Detroit (-3.5) at Green Bay
Why Lions cover: Take a look at that number. It’s clear that the Packers – who have already clinched home field throughout NFC playoffs – aren’t expected to play their big guns much. Detroit, meanwhile, would like to remain as the No. 5 seed and dodge a potential first-round playoff date in New Orleans. The Lions are 11-3-2 ATS in the last 16 coming off a SU win.
Why Packers cover: Even with Matt Flynn at QB, this team has plenty of weapons, and the Packers thrive at Lambeau – 16-5-1 ATS in the last 21 overall.
Total (46.5): Over is 8-1-1 in Detroit’s last 10 roadies, has hit in four straight home games and seven of nine overall for Green Bay. That said, total has gone low in four of the last five Lions-Packers contests.
Carolina at New Orleans (-9)
Why Panthers cover: They’re catching 9 points against a Saints team that is still in the running for No. 2 seed, but surely doesn’t want to see any key players (read: Drew Brees) get hurt before the playoffs. And Carolina has all the positive pointspread trends in this rivalry: 6-1 in the last seven overall and 10-1 in the last 11 trips to the Big Easy with the road team going 18-4 ATS in the last 22 Panthers-Saints clashes.
Why Saints cover: There’s that possible No. 2 seed, so they’ve got reason to put up another strong performance. They’ve won and cashed seven in a row, including five as chalks of 6.5 or more. As an underdog, Carolina’s on ATS purges of 5-12 overall and 2-6 on the highway.
Total (55): These are two of the league’s top offenses – New Orleans averages 33.5 ppg (second) and Carolina 25.9 ppg (fifth) – so the over could surely be in play, even at this high a price. These teams played an October shootout won 30-27 by the Saints, though that came after four straight unders in this rivalry.
N.Y. Jets at Miami (-1.5)
Why Jets cover: They still have very slim playoff hopes, none of which allow them to lose Sunday, so it’s all on the line. The Jets have cashed in seven of the last eight trips to South Beach and nine of the last 12 January starts.
Why Dolphins cover: This team has been far better the second half of this season and had New England in a 17-0 hole last week before succumbing on the road. The Fish still cashed that game, as they have in eight of their last nine and they are on a 6-0 ATS run vs. winning teams.
Total (41): Mixed bag here, with the under at 10-3-1 in Miami’s last 14 games. New York is on over surges of 24-9 overall, 14-3-1 as a pup and 9-3 in AFC East play.
Washington at Philadelphia (-9)
Why Redskins cover: As bad as they’ve been at times this season, they have cashed in four of the last six overall and are on nice 6-1 spread-covering run in the NFC East. They’ve also cashed in the last four in Philly. The Eagles, meanwhile, are in ATS dives of 2-8 at the Linc and 4-11 when laying points.
Why Eagles cover: This preseason Super Bowl pick has nothing but pride left to play for, but there’s still a lot of talent on this team. They’ve won and cashed the last three by double digits, including wins over playoff contenders Dallas and the Giants, along with a surging Miami squad.
Total (46.5): The over is on 5-1 stretch for the ‘Skins, but the under has hit in Philly’s last six division tilts and six of Washington’s last eight roadies.
Seattle at Arizona (-3)
Why Seahawks cover: Seattle has been very good at books (9-3-1 ATS in the last 13) and on field, nearly climbing back into playoff contention before losing a hard-fought game to San Francisco last week. The Seahawks have cashed six of the last eight, and covered all three roadies in that stretch (2-1 SU).
Why Cardinals cover: They have been pretty hot lately, too. Prior to last week’s loss at Cincinnati, the Cardinals had won six of seven SU, covering five times. The home team 8-3 ATS in the last 11 in this rivalry and the Cards have cashed four of their last five home games vs. the Seahawks.
Total (41): In this NFC West rivalry, the total has gone high in the last seven meetings in Phoenix.
San Diego at Oakland (-3)
Why Chargers cover: Oakland has a couple paths that could lead to playoffs and the Chargers (7-2 ATS last nine in Oakland) would love to spoil that for a hated AFC West rival. Revenge is an option, too. The Bolts have lost three in a row SU and five in a row ATS in this rivalry, including a 24-17 setback on their home field in November.
Why Raiders cover: They have to win to salvage any playoff hope and they’ve been a covering machine in AFC West play at 10-2 ATS in the last 12. Chargers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 overall.
Total (49): The over is 8-2-1 in San Diego’s last 11 on the highway and 8-3 in Oakland’s last 11 at home.
Kansas City at Denver (-3.5)
Why Chiefs cover: What an ultimate revenge spot for QB Kyle Orton, who was benched by Denver in October in favor of Tim Tebow, then granted a release to end up in Kansas City. Now he can ruin the Broncos’ playoff hopes. The Chiefs are a solid pup at 8-2 ATS in the last 10, while the Broncos are 14-36-1 in the last 51 when laying points.
Why Broncos cover: What a soapbox spot for Tim Tebow, who can carry Denver to the postseason with a victory. The Broncs have cashed in four of the last five in this rivalry and the Chiefs are on 3-7 ATS slides in Denver and against AFC West foes.
Total (37): The over has cashed in 14 of the last 20 Chiefs-Broncos clashes. Denver’s on over sprees of 25-11 overall, 11-2 as chalk, and 10-3 at Mile High. But the Chiefs are second-last in league scoring (13.7 ppg) and sport under streaks of 16-5 overall and 8-0 in AFC West play.
Tampa Bay at Atlanta (-12)
Why Buccaneers cover: Well, they’ve certainly got no pressure on them, having lost nine in a row SU (1-8 ATS) to completely soil their season. Bucs are 7-2 ATS in the last nine vs. Atlanta.
Why Falcons cover: They’re a much better team and they’d like to go into postseason with some momentum after getting crushed last week at New Orleans. Tampa’s nine-game nosedive has included six double-digit defeats, with last four losses of at least 16 points. Atlanta’s a solid bounceback bet, with ATS streaks of 19-7 off a SU loss and 19-8-1 off a non-cover.
Total (47): The under is 5-1 in the Falcons’ last six at home.
Baltimore (-1.5) at Cincinnati
Why Ravens cover: With Pittsburgh playing the Browns at the same time, Baltimore knows it cannot mess around in this game if it hopes to win the AFC North and secure a first-round playoff bye. The Bengals are 1-4-2 ATS in their last seven. The Ravens often play to level of competition, which is good in this case, as they are 4-0-1 ATS last five vs. winning teams.
Why Bengals cover: They want to join the playoff party and they need not only a cover, but an outright win to be certain of advancing. The Ravens have failed to cover in their last three and are 3-6-1 ATS in their last 10 overall. Cincy is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 as a home pup and 8-2 ATS in the last 10 after a SU win. And in this rivalry, the Bengals are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five overall and 5-1 ATS in their last six in Cincy.
Total (38): A pair of top-10 defenses are in this showdown, with Ravens allowing just 16.7 ppg (third) and Bengals yielding 19.9 ppg (ninth). Total has gone low in four of the last five in this AFC North rivalry, though Nov. 20 meeting in Baltimore – a 31-24 Ravens win – soared over posted number of 40.5.
Pittsburgh at Cleveland
Why Steelers cover: If I may repeat myself, with Baltimore playing the Bengals at the same time, Pittsburgh knows it cannot mess around in this game if it hopes to win the AFC North and secure a first-round playoff bye. The Steelers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 January games. The muddling Browns are 1-8-2 ATS in their last 11 at home.
Why Browns cover: They’re on a nice 5-1 pointspread run right now and with Pittsburgh’s QB situation in flux due to Ben Roethlisberger’s gimpy ankle, Cleveland might be thinking about an outright victory. Pittsburgh’s 1-7 ATS in its last eight after a cover and 2-6 ATS in the last eight on the highway.
Total: Pittsburgh defense ranks No. 2 in league, allowing meager 14.5 ppg, and Cleveland’s offense produces just 13.9 ppg (30th), so under looks intriguing here. The total has gone low in five straight for the Steelers and is on mini-runs for Browns of 3-0-1 overall and 4-0 at home.
Dallas at N.Y. Giants (-3)
Why Cowboys cover: It’s as simple as it gets - win and you’re in the playoffs, lose and you’re making tee times. The Giants are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six at home and 0-4-1 ATS in their last five when giving points. The Cowboys are a strong underdog of late, at 7-1 ATS last eight when catching points and 5-1 ATS in the last six as road pups.
Why Giants cover: Ditto for the motivation, as they win division title with a victory and send their archrival packing. The G-Men have cashed in four of the last five in this rivalry, and Dallas is on pointspread purges of 1-5 overall and 0-5 inside the NFC East.
Total (46.5): Over has been the play in five straight Cowboys-Giants affairs and eight of last 10 in this rivalry. And during the current five-game over run, the minimum total points has been 53, with three games reaching at least 64 points. That includes New York’s 37-34 comeback win on Dec. 11 in Dallas.
Total Talk - Week 17
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
Week 16 Recap
The ‘under’ went 9-7 last week and the numbers probably would’ve been more one-sided if it wasn’t for some second-half explosions. Five games saw 30 points or more posted in the final 30 minutes. On the season, the ‘under’ stands at 120-113-5 (52%).
Meaningful or Meaningless
Week 17 of the regular season is often compared to the preseason because it’s tough to gauge who will be going full speed and who’s going to be resting. Since all of the games are divisional battles, let’s take a look at the first meeting between the teams and everything else to help you and analyze the totals.
Early Games
Washington at Philadelphia: The Redskins have watched the ‘over’ cash in five of their last six, while the Eagles have watched the ‘under’ go 2-1 in their last three. Philadelphia beat Washington 20-13 on Oct. 16 and the closing number of 47 was never threatened.
San Francisco at St. Louis: Four of the last six in this series has gone ‘under.’ San Francisco blanked St. Louis 26-0 on Dec. 4.
Chicago at Minnesota: Low total (41) for an indoor game and especially low for a Vikings’ squad that has surrendered an average of 33.3 PPG in their last seven games. The ‘over’ has gone 6-1 during this stretch.
Detroit at Green Bay: Four of the last five between this pair have gone ‘under’ and it’s hard to make a case for the ‘over’ with the Packers expected to rest starters, including QB Aaron Rodgers.
Carolina at New Orleans: This is probably the game to watch if you’re looking for a shootout. The number is high (54.5) and could easily get there with the two gunslingers. The recent history here has watched the ‘under’ go 4-1 in the last five.
Indianapolis at Jacksonville: The Jaguars beat the Colts 17-3 on Nov. 13. Indianapolis has seen seven of its last eight go ‘under’ but Jacksonville is on a 4-0 run to the ‘over.’ The total is hovering around 37 points.
N.Y. Jets at Miami: New York has leaned to the ‘over’ (10-5) this season, while Miami has been an ‘under’ (11-4) club. The Jets stifled the Dolphins 24-6 in mid-October but Miami’s offense has improved since the setback. The previous two meetings from South Florida have watched the scoreboard operator put up 54 and 58 combined points.
Buffalo at New England: High number (50) here and certainly doable. The Bills beat the Patriots 34-31 back in Week 2. New England has watched the ‘over’ go 10-5 this season, but just 4-3 at home.
Late Games
Tampa Bay at Atlanta: Seems like a high total (45.5) here, considering the two teams have seen the ‘under’ go 4-2 in their last six meetings. However, Tampa Bay’s defense (29.9 PPG) hasn’t showed up during the team’s nine-game losing streak. Atlanta has watched its last three games go ‘over.’
Baltimore at Cincinnati: Must-win spot for the Bengals as a victory gets them into the playoffs. Ravens also need the win to lock up the division and first-round bye. Baltimore beat Cincinnati 31-24 in the first go ‘round, yet the total for the second encounter is a point lower (39½) in Week 17. Both the Bengals (3-1) and Ravens (4-1) enter this matchup on ‘under’ runs.
Pittsburgh at Cleveland: Not surprisingly, this is the lowest total (34.5) on the board in Week 17. Pittsburgh needs a win but would rather come out healthy instead. The Steelers have given up 39 points in their last five games and it would be hard to see Cleveland adding to that number. Pittsburgh beat Cleveland 14-3 on Dec. 8.
San Diego at Oakland: The Chargers’ offense looked gross last week at Detroit (10-38) but they could do better against a suspect Raiders’ defense (26.6 PPG). Oakland beat San Diego 24-17 on the road in early October, as the total went ‘under’ (47.5). The last four played in the Bay Area between this pair has gone ‘over’ the number.
Kansas City at Denver: The Chiefs have been a clear-cut ‘under’ (11-4) team all season because they can’t score. We know Denver likes to run with Tim Tebow and most would expect a safe approach today with a playoff spot on the line. Denver stifled KC 17-10 at Arrowhead on Nov. 13.
Seattle at Arizona: The last three regular seasons, these teams have watched the ‘over/under’ go 1-1. With Seattle beating Arizona 13-10 in a low-scoring affair on Sept. 25, should we ride the trend and go ‘over’ the number here?
Under the Lights
The primetime affairs saw the ‘over’ go 2-0 last week. Not only did the ‘over’ cash, but the favorites came in on each game as well, which is never good for the books. This week, we only have one showdown and it should be a good one. On the season ‘over’ now stands at 19-12-1 (61%) in games under the lights this season.
Dallas at New York Giants: This series has produced nothing but shootouts lately, watching the ‘over’ cash in the last five meetings, including the Giants 37-34 road win over the Cowboys on Dec. 11. The total on that affair was 50 ½ points and this week the number has dropped to 47. The winner earns a playoff spot, which could create some conservative play-calling on both sides. Check the weather on this game as precipitation is expected for the late-night kickoff. Make a note that the ‘over’ has gone 12-5 in the SNF slot this season.
Fearless Predictions
Perhaps the New Year will bring us a winning streak. We hit the Team Total last week but couldn’t muster up anything else. The deficit was $220. On the season, the profits stand at 80 cents ($80). As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck and Happy New Year!
Best Over: San Diego-Oakland 48.5
Best Under: Baltimore-Cincinnati 39.5
Best Team Total: Over 22.5 San Diego
Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Over San Diego-Oakland 39.5
Under Baltimore-Cincinnati 48.5
Under Detroit-Green Bay 52
SNF - Cowboys at Giants
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
The final game of the NFL regular season will decide the NFC East champion as the Giants welcome in the Cowboys to Met Life Stadium. New York forced this pseudo-division title game with a victory last week, while Dallas was humbled at home by Philadelphia. However, the biggest question mark for the Cowboys is if their starting quarterback will be effective after getting injured last week.
Tony Romo left last Saturday's loss to the Eagles after his right hand collided with the helmet of Philadelphia's Jason Babin. Romo didn't return as the Cowboys fell, 20-7 as one-point home favorites, while the Eagles pulled off the season sweep. Philadelphia outscored Dallas, 54-14 in the two victories, dropping the Cowboys to 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS inside division play this season.
The erratic Giants stayed alive with a 29-14 blowout of the rival Jets last Saturday, despite only nine completions from quarterback Eli Manning. One of those nine connections was a game-changing pass as Manning hit Victor Cruz for a 99-yard score to give the Giants a 10-7 lead. Big Blue outscored the Jets, 19-7 the rest of the way for their eighth win of the season, while covering their third straight game in the underdog role.
The last time these two teams hooked up at Cowboys Stadium in Week 14, the Giants rallied for a 37-34 triumph as 4½-point away 'dogs. New York overcame a late 12-point deficit with two touchdowns in the final 3:14, including a one-yard touchdown run by Brandon Jacobs to cap the comeback. Both quarterbacks performed well as Manning threw for 400 yards, while Romo tossed four touchdown passes. The Cowboys looked to force overtime, but the game-tying field goal in the final seconds was blocked.
Dallas hasn't been a bettor's dream the last two months by compiling a 2-7 ATS record, including a 2-6 ATS mark as a favorite in this span. However, the Cowboys are 2-1 ATS as an underdog, but Jason Garrett's team has lost to the Jets, Patriots, and Eagles in the 'dog role. What make this more frustrating for Dallas money-line players in those defeats are the fourth-quarter leads blown in the setbacks at New York and New England.
The Giants are pointspread poison when it comes to backing them as a favorite, putting together a 2-5-1 ATS ledger when laying points this season. Since covering in a Week 2 win over St. Louis, New York is 0-3-1 ATS when laying points at Met Life Stadium, including two division losses to Washington and Philadelphia. In fact, the Giants haven't won a home game since before Halloween against the Dolphins in Week 8, a 20-17 victory as nine-point 'chalk.'
From a totals perspective, the Cowboys are 9-6 to the 'under,' while the Giants have gone 8-6-1 to the 'over.' Dallas has cashed the 'under' in three of the previous four road contests, including a 31-15 victory at Tampa Bay with the total of 47. The Giants have seen the 'under' hit in three of the last four home games, while scoring 10 points in each of the losses to the Redskins and Eagles.
New York is listed as three-point favorites, while the total is set at 47. Temperatures are expected to be in the low 40's at kickoff, while there is a 40% chance of rain. The game will kick off at 8:20 PM EST and can be seen nationally on NBC.