NFL Betting News and Notes Week 2

NFL Week 2 Tip Sheet
By Jeff Scott Sports

Chicago is 2-11 ATS with an OU line of 45 or more, but 8-3 ATS off a win as a dog. The Under is 10-31-1 ATS when they are a non-division road dog.

New Orleans is 10-1 ATS at home vs .667 or better non-divisional NFC opponents but 1-5 ATS after allowing 35 or more points. The over is 30-15 when the Saints take on an NFC North opponent.

Kansas City is 8-3 ATS as a road dog and 5-0 ATS the last 5 in the series, but 0-6 ATS as dogs of 10 or less vs .667 or better non-div opponent. The Over is 12-4-1 when they are off a loss of 10 or more.

Detroit is 7-2 ATS after covering as a dog, but 1-6 ATS at home vs .333 or worse opposition.

Jacksonville is 6-0 ATS the last 6 in the series and 12-2 ATS as dogs vs an opponent off a non-div game. The Over is 9-2 when the jags are dogs of 3.5 to 9.5.

The Jets are 12-2 ATS as home favs vs .600 or better opponent, but 0-8 ATS as non-div home favs of 10 or less.

Arizona is 2-9-1 ATS on the road and 0-8 ATS in september off a non-div game vs an opponent off a division game. The Over is 32-11-1 when they are away vs a non-div opponent.

Washington is 3-12-2 ATS in it's first favorite role of the year and 8-18-3 ATS ATS after winning as a dog, but 7-1-1 ATS after winning by 10 or more. The Under is 12-5-2 when the Skins are a home fav.

Baltimore is 6-14 ATS as an away fav off a SU win. The Under is 16-6 when the Ravens take on an AFC South opponent.

Tennessee is 4-1 ATS the last 5 in the series and 14-3 ATS as a dog of 7 or more. The Over is 9-3-1 when the Titans are off a loss of 3 or less, but the Under is 1-6 when they are a dog of 7 or more.

Seattle is 6-20 ATS as a non-div road dog and 3-10 ATS as a dog of 10 or more, but 8-1 ATS before playing Arizona. The Over is 24-10 when Seattle is a road dog.

Pittsburgh is 6-12 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more, but 26-14-1 ATS at homke after scoring 10 or less. The Over is 11-2 when Pittsburgh is off a division game.

Green Bay is 9-4 ATS after allowing 28 or more and 15-5 ATS vs a non-div opponent, but just 1-6 ATS vs the NFC South. The Under is 7-0 after the Pack scores 28 or more, but the Over is 18-9-2 when they are an away fave vs a non-div opponent.

Carolina is 1-5-1 ATS as a dog of 7 or more, but 9-`1 ATS as a home dog of 7 or more. The Under is 12-4 in their last 16 home games, but the Over is 32-19-1 after they allowed 28 or more.

Tampa Bay is 1-6 ATS vs a sub .333 opponent and 1-8 as sub .500 road dogs off a SU and ATS loss, but 12-3 ATS in their last 15 road games.

Minnesota is 7-1 ATS before playing Detroit and 5-1 ATS as favs of 6 or less vs the NFC South. The Under is 18-6 when they are a home favorite of 3 or less.

Cleveland is 8u-1 ATS away after the playing the Bengals and 6-1 vs a sub .250 opponent, but 1-5-1 ATS off a DD ATS loss.

Indianapolis is 1-8 ATS in September off a SU & ATS division loss. The Over is 15-5-2 when the Colts are off a SU division loss

Dallas is 1-7 ATS as a favorite of 3 or less and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 at San Fran. The Over is 24-11 when Dallas is on the road vs a non-div foe.

San Francisco is 3-10-1 ATS after winning by 10 or more and 0-6 ATS as dogs of less than 6 vs a sub .500 opponent. The Over is 23-10 when the Niners are off a division win.

Houston is 2-11-2 ATS after scoring 30 or more and 2-9 ATS in the first of BB road games.

Miami is 5-1 ATS as dogs vs the NFC South, but 2-9 ATS vs .750 or better opponent.

San Diego is 0-5 ATS away vs the AFC East, but 13-3 ATS in all games when the total is 49.5 or higher.

New England is 8-2 ATS as home favs of 3 or more vs a .600 or better opponent and 12-5 ATS after scoring 30 or more. The Over is 9-2 after the Pats score 31 or more.

Cincinnati is 8-3 ATS after a SU win as a dog and 6-1-1 ATS off a rod game vs the Browns. The Under is 3-10 when Cincy is a dog off a SU win.

Denver is 4-15 ATS as a non-div fav and 1-12 ATS as favs of 5 or more, but 9-2 ATS as favs of more than 4 vs a .667 opponent off a SU win. The over is 9-2 when Denver is a favorite.

Philadelphia is 5-1 ATS before the Giants, but 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs the AFC North. The Under is 11-22-1 when the $Eagles are a fav off a 10 or more point win.

Atlanta is 8-0 ATS after losing by 10 or more and 9-2 ATS off a SU loss as a favorite, but just 1-4 ATS at home the last 5 in the series. the Over is 9-3 when the Falcons are a home dog.

The Rams are 7-2 ATS off a loss of 10 or more, but 0-5 ATS away vs an opponent off a SU fav loss.

The Giants are 5-0 ATS the last 5 in the series and 10-2 ATS after playing the Skins, but 1-7 ATS at home vs an opponent off a DD ATS loss. The Over is 18-7 when the Giants take on an NFC opponent.

is it me or could this be the week where ALL the homes teams cover except Oakland beats the Bills? Things that make you go hmmmmm!

I have been gone to long Blade!

is it me or could this be the week where ALL the homes teams cover except Oakland beats the Bills? Things that make you go hmmmmm!

You know what they say when it looks to easy local. 😡

NFL Notebook - Week 2
By Stephen Nover

Forget the new NFL kickoff rule. Even with kickoffs moved back from the 35 to the 30, the over went 12-3-1 in Week 1.

I don't think it was one of those fluke weeks either.

The combination of lockout and new practice rules negatively impacted tackling more than pass protection.

I can still picture Matt Forte eluding Atlanta linebacker Sean Weatherspoon's missed tackle on his way to a 56-yard touchdown reception.

More overs than unders may not just be an opening week trend either.

The new rules have reduced padded and contact practice sessions. So tackling may not improve.

As for the new kickoff rule, there still were three kickoffs returned for touchdowns. San Francisco's Ted Ginn returned both a kickoff and punt back for a touchdown against Seattle.

Speaking of the Seahawks, their loss to the 49ers was their 17th in their last 21 road games. Of those 21 defeats, 20 have been by double-digits. No surprise that the line on Seattle-Pittsburgh keeps climbing higher and higher.

Carolina is another bad road team. The Panthers have dropped 12 of their past 13 away contests. Their only win during this span came against the Giants late in the 2009 season after New York had quit.

Thoughts on Tony Romo: Nice guy. Excellent quarterback for fantasy football purposes. But a loser in real football.

How bad is Arizona's defense? Cam Newton threw for 422 yards and two touchdowns against the Cardinals in his NFL debut. Newton completed just 42 percent of his throws during preseason. His top passing yardage mark at Auburn was 335 yards. He never passed for 400 yards either when he played for Blinn Junior College.

Tom Brady was the league's unanimous MVP last year. Aaron Rodgers may be the best quarterback. But no player is more valuable to his team than Peyton Manning. If there was any doubt about this it was erased by the performance of Kerry Collins and the Colts against Houston this past Sunday.

The Colts don't have the makeup to be a physical running team. Collins isn't comfortable in their system and is over-the-hill. That's a losing combination. If Manning returns next year, he just may find himself tutoring Andrew Luck.

Week 2's Best Over/Under Bets
By Ryan Stetson

Bill Belichick is the NFL’s big riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma – er, hoodie.

Every week he leads his team into battle, stomping around the sidelines with purpose, clutching game notes that might as well be the Dead Sea Scrolls to football bettors.

He’s almost unquestionably the game’s most respected mind and yet, what do we really know about him? Not much - which is exactly what he wanted. Well, up until now at least.

On Thursday evening, the NFL Network debuts Bill Belichick: A Football Life, a documentary that follows the coach’s every move from the beginning of the 2009 offseason all the way to the club’s playoff loss to the Baltimore Ravens.

Even as a Patriots hater, I’ve been drooling over this for weeks.

We saw exactly what the Pats are capable of against the Miami Dolphins Monday when you give Belichick’s bunch an entire offseason to plan for a game. Now, hopefully, we’ll get a glimpse into how it all comes together behind the scenes or at least get a better understanding of what "Patriot Way" really means.

But while I’ll happily Spygate the hell out of this series, it does seem a little un-Belichick, doesn’t it?

Former Patriots linebacker and current ESPN analyst Teddy Bruschi ripped Ochocinco earlier this week for tweeting his awe of the team’s offensive explosion on the Dolphins earlier this week. While some are saying Bruschi needs to chill out, I agree with him.

Ochocinco’s a clown show. He’s a pile of wasted talent for this team until he pulls himself together and becomes the potent offensive weapon that he’s capable of.

The thing is, Belichick’s supposed to be the guy who doesn’t tolerate any junk, the guy who forces his players to put the team before themselves.

I’m just not sure how this new documentary fits into that mold.

I’m staying away from the skyscraper 54-point total set for this weekend’s Chargers-Pats game, but keep in mind the over was 13-3 in Week 1. Books may have to boost their totals for a while to keep up with all this offense and balance their action.

Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans (5.5, 37.5)

I’ll be whistling Dixie on this Ravens over train until the last stop. If you needed any more evidence that Baltimore’s attack is legit after last week’s dismantling of the Steelers, Joe Flacco, Ray Rice and the boys will be happy to put on another show Sunday.

This team has such a good mix of veteran sensibility and youthful energy right now. You have Flacco and Rice ready to take the league by storm and Ray Lewis, Ed Reed and Terrell Suggs there to keep everybody’s head on straight.

"I just hope people ain't jumping the gun too fast," Suggs told reporters this week. "It's a long season. We won our first game. So did half the other teams that played last week.”

The Titans weren’t one of those teams and they may be waiting a while before they get in the win column. That said, Chris Johnson will look to bounce back after a rotten showing in Week 1 and I do like Kenny Britt a ton. They should get enough done to help push this one over the total.

Pick: Over

Philadelphia Eagles at Atlanta Falcons (1, 49.5)

I’ll get on a full-out rant about the Eagles one of these weeks. But for now, all I’ll say is that I’m looking at this team as a work in progress. While all the pieces appear to be there, it can take a long time to put a puzzle together.

Vick’s in a tough spot here, coming back to the Georgia Dome for the first time as a starter. Atlanta was smacked around by the Bears last week and needs to make a big impression at home this week. I’m concerned the Falcons have a tough time doing much through the air against Philly’s secondary and you know the Falcons will do everything they can to stop the run and contain Vick early on.

This smells like a real battle in the trenches to me and I think the public forced books to make this total a little higher than it should be.

Pick: Under

Oakland Raiders at Buffalo Bills (-3, 43)

Hey Buffalo, welcome to the party. You’re only about a decade late, but no matter now that your Bills seem to have figured out that you can win games with offense.

It’s a novel concept and one that I’m not sure the Bills will be able to keep up, so let’s soak it up while it lasts. If they can produce half the offense they did in destroying the Chiefs at Arrowhead last week, I feel great about an over wager.

That Darren McFadden is some sort of animal in Oakland’s backfield and should carry the Raiders’ offense again this weekend.

Pick: Over

NFL Week 2 Preview

Bears (1-0) @ Saints (0-1) - Last three years, Payton’s team is 10-3 vs spread in game following loss; Saints had three extra days to ****** loss in Lambeau opener. NO is 9-3-1 vs spread in last 13 games as non-divisional home favorite- would expect them to run it more here, after only 21 runs, 53 dropbacks in opener. Since 2007, Bears are 12-18 vs spread in game following a loss- they’re 5-9-1 as road dog since ‘08. Chicago won last three series games, with average total in last three, 54, but Bears lost last three visits to Bourbon Street by 22-3-7 points (beat Saints @ LSU in ’05). 10 of Saints’ last 14 home openers, six of Bears’ last seven road openers stayed under total.

Chiefs (0-1) @ Lions (1-0) - Detroit now on 5-game win streak after 27-20 win in Tampa where they put up 431 yards despite covering just 2-11 on third down; Lions is 6-2-1 in last nine games as home favorite- they’re 12-8 vs spread/AFC teams, 10-6 vs spread at home under Schwartz. Detroit was 5-0 vs spread in game following a win LY, after being 7-21-2 in such role from ‘01-‘09. Chiefs were awful in losing home opener 41-7 last week, passing for just 105 yards, converting 3-13 on third down. Have to wonder how much Cassel is affected by sore ribs. Since ’07, Chiefs are 19-13 vs spread on road. Since 2005, they’re 14-24-1 as single digit underdogs. Home side won four of last five series games.

Jaguars (1-0) @ Jets (1-0) - Since 2007, Gang Green is 8-16-1 as home fave, but they’re 12-10 vs spread as favorite under Ryan. Since ’08, Jets are 16-11 vs spread in game following a win- they need to avoid letdown after emotional comeback win in season opener against Cowboys. Jags won five of last six series games, with three of last four decided by 3 or less points, or in OT; Jax outrushed Titans 163-43 last week, converted 9-18 on third down- this is only second time in last 11+ years they’re double digit dog (lost 27-7 (+10.5) at Baltimore in ’07 finale). Jaguars lost five of last six road openers, scoring 10-12-13 points last three years. Five of their last seven road openers stayed under total.

Raiders (1-0) @ Bills (1-0) - Very tough scheduling spot for Oakland, which won in Denver late Monday night (game ended after 1:30 am ET), now has cross-country road trip on short rest, vs hopped-up Buffalo squad that had 23-yard edge in field position in last week’s stunning 41-7 win at Arrowhead, starting five drives in KC territory. Since 2007, Buffalo is 12-7 as a favorite; since ’04, they’re 18-11-1 as a home favorite. Last eight years, Raiders are 25-42-1 as single digit dog. Oakland won four of last five series games, with home side winning last three; Raiders are 3-3 in last six visits here. Under is 8-4 in Buffalo’s last dozen home openers. Bills had excellent balance in opener; 163 rushing yards, 201 passing.

Cardinals (1-0) @ Redskins (1-0) - Have to be concerned about Arizona pass defense after rookie Newton lit them up for 422 yards, most ever by player in his NFL debut. Over last nine years, Cardinals are just 19-32-2 coming off a win, 26-43-3 vs spread on road, but Arizona has won its first road game the last three years, allowing 14.3 ppg-- they’ve lost last seven games vs Washington, losing last six visits here, with four of six losses by 7+ points. Since 2008, Arizona is 5-10-2 as road dog. Since ’05, Washington is 13-19 as a favorite; 9-3 vs spread when laying 3 or less points, 4-16 if laying more than 3. Skins are 5-13-1 in their last 19 games as a home favorite. Skins had three TD’s in four visits to red zone and the defense scored go-ahead TD, a huge plus. Four of Arizona’s last five road openers stayed under total.

Ravens (1-0) @ Titans (0-1) - Tennessee star RB Johnson had nine carries, 24 yards in opener, now Raven defense comes to town after forcing seven turnovers in rivalry win last week. New Titan coach Munchak great lineman; he needs to find way to get Johnson more holes to run thru. Baltimore is 19-11 vs spread in last 30 games as favorite, 5-3 in last eight as road fave, 14-8-2 in last 24 road games overall- they covered four of last five road openers. Tennessee covered its last six games as an underdog in home openers; since 2007, they’re 22-14-1 as a dog, 18-14 coming off a loss. Home team lost last three series games; Ravens won five of last six visits here. Average total in last seven series games is 31.7. Over is 10-6 in Tennessee’s last six home openers.

Seahawks (0-1) @ Steelers (0-1) - Both teams got hammered last week; since 2003, Steelers are 25-18 vs spread in game following a loss; they’ve won last eight home openers, covering five of last six, allowing just 10.5 ppg in those games. Steelers are just 5-13 in last 18 games when laying double digits; since ’08, they’re 16-21-1 as a favorite, but they did cover 15 of last 24 vs NFC teams. Over last decade, Seattle is 1-9 vs spread as double digit underdogs; since 2005, they’re 11-26-1 on foreign soil, 3-14 last two years. Hawks covered six of last 25 tries as a road dog, but since ’05, they’re 23-19-2 coming off a loss. Seahawks lost field position by 16 yards last week, starting 8 of 13 drives 80+ yards from goal line- they had only 64 rushing yards. Home teams won six of last seven series games; Seahawks are 2-6 in Steel City, with last win in ’99.

Packers (1-0) @ Panthers (0-1) - Defending champs were sharp in opening win, with four TD drives of 76+ yards vs Saints- overall they had five TDs on nine drives. Packers won last five road openers, all by 7+ points; they’re 26-12-1 vs spread in last 39 road games, 10-6 as road favorite last four years. Since 2002, GB is 6-3 when laying double digits. Carolina lost six of last seven home openers (0-8 vs spread in last eight); they’ve covered only 11 of last 30 as an underdog. Since ’06, Panthers are 5-9 as a home dog, but they also covered 10 of last 15 as double digit dog. Green Bay is 7-4 in series, 4-2 in last six visits here, but this is their first here in six years; average total in last three series games is 58.3. Four of Pack’s last five road openers went over; under is 11-3-1 in Carolina’s last 15 home openers.

Bucs (0-1) @ Vikings (0-1) - McNabb had 28 net yards passing in sunny San Diego last week, threw horrible pick on screen pass; Minnesota’s only offensive TD came on 51-yard drive. Not good. Tampa Bay is 12-3-1 vs spread on road under Morris- road teams are 25-6-2 in Tampa games so far in his tenure. Home side won 10 of last 11 Buc-Viking games, but teams haven’t met since ’08; Tampa Bay lost four of last five visits here. Minnesota is 3-7 vs spread in last 10 games as a favorite in its home opener- only once in their last six home openers have Vikings won by more than three points. Bucs lost four of last five road openers; they’re 5-9 vs spread in last 14 games as a dog in a road opener. Under is 14-4 in Bucs’ last 18 road openers, 5-1 in Vikings’ last six home openers.

Browns (0-1) @ Colts (0-1) - This is first time Browns are favored on road in four years, since Week 16 loss at Cincy in 2007. With Manning out, no Indy trends matter, since they're totally different (much worse) without him. Colts trailed 34-0 at half in Houston last week; Texans had no points, 7 first downs in second half. Colts had only 64 rushing yards, were 1-9 on 3rd down. Cleveland gave up couple of TDs in last 5:00 of home loss to Bengals- they had 11 penalties and were just 19-40 passing. Browns covered two of last eight games as a favorite, but over last decade, they're 5-1 as a road favorite. For what its worth, Colts are 5-0 vs new Browns, with last three wins 9-6/13-6/10-6. Cleveland lost its last five road openers, going 1-3-1 vs spread, with three of the five losses by 17+ points. Over is 7-3 in Cleveland's last ten road openers.

Cowboys (0-1) @ 49ers (1-0) - Dallas led by 14 in 4th quarter at Swamp last week, but blew lead, first time in franchise history (241-1-1) they lost a game when leading by 14+ in 4th quarter. Since 1988, Dallas is 8-3 as a favorite in its road opener; they've won three of last four overall. 49ers' 33 points vs Seattle last week are little misleading, as Ginn returned PR/KR for TDs within 0:59 in last 4:00 of what was 19-17 game. 49ers are 11-4-1 vs spread at home the last two years; they were 0-5 vs spread after a win LY. Dallas won three of last four series games, with average total in last five, 58.6- they were 0-3 as a road favorite LY,and seem to find ways to lose (like the blocked punt last week) so they need this win to erase last week's debacle. Over is 11-3 in Cowboys' last 14 road openers. You have to give 49ers a big edge in special teams.

Texans (1-0) @ Dolphins (0-1) - Miami had 390 passing yards vs Patriots in opener, but 213 of its 488 total yards came on last three drives, after Pats had blown game open. Houston won all five games vs Miami, with four wins by 3 or less points; their wins here were 21-20/27-20, with last one in 2009. Since 2004, Dolphins are 11-15 as a home dog; they've lost last five games at home. Fish gave up 519 yards passing last week (10.5 ypa). Texans had 34-0 lead at halftime last week, coasted rest of game; they won three of their last four road openers, with seven of last eight going over total. Texans play Saints/Steelers in next two weeks, they better not look past this hungry opponent. Since 2005, Dolphins are 19-31-1 vs spread in game following a loss; Houston is 17-31-2 in its history coming off a win.

Chargers (1-0) @ Patriots (1-0) - Brady implored fans to get drunk and make lot of noise for this 4:15 kickoff, so expect raucous crowd; New England won its last nine home openers (5-3-1 vs spread), with seven of nine going over the total. Chargers are 1-3-1 vs spread in last five games as underdog in their road opener, but since 2004, San Diego is 19-5-3 overall as an underdog, 6-2-1 as a road dog the last three years. Bolts brought in Bob Sanders to improve its pass defense- Vikings got only 28 net passing yards last week, but McNabb is no Brady, this we know. Pats are 9-6-1 as home favorite last two years. Patriots won four of last five series games; Chargers lost nine of last ten visits here, with only win in 2005- their last visit here was in '07. Chargers are 22-14-1 coming off a win, New England is 34-23-2. Winner is early favorite in AFC.

Bengals (1-0) @ Broncos (0-1) - Denver is 11-2 in last 13 series games, winning last meeting 12-7 on bizarre tipped pass in last minute of '09 opener. Bengals lost last eight visits here; their last Mile High win was 1975, but Cincy won its opener, scoring two TDs in last 5:00 behind journeyman backup Gradkowski. Last 5+ years, Cincy is 16-13 as a road dog. Broncos are now 6-20 SU in last 26 games, since starting out 6-0 in '09- since 2006 they're 5-22-1 as a favorite at home. Some fickle Denver fans were chanting for a QB change to Tebow late in Monday night's loss, so pressure on Orton to play better here, but they also need better balance, after 51 dropbacks, only 13 running plays in opener. Cincy is 10-6 vs spread in game following its last 16 wins. Denver is 15-25 vs spread in game after its last 40 losses.

Eagles (1-0) @ Falcons (0-1) - Over last three years, Atlanta is 13-1-1 against spread in games coming off a loss. Michael Vick returns to Georgia Dome here for first time as an Eagle, so very emotional game for him, after his workmanlike destruction of Rams (237 RY, 8-12 on 3rd down) last week. Atlanta won six of last seven home openers; since 1988, they're 5-3 as underdog in home opener. Eagles scored 37-38-35 points in last three road openers; they're 7-4 as faves in their road opener. Falcons were only NFL team not to score offensive TD last week; they had 52 dropbacks, 14 runs, so expect more balance here. Over last decade, Philly is 27-20 as road favorite, Falcons 7-17 as home underdog; since '07 Eagles are 19-16 coming off a win. Will be curious to see how much of the Georgia Dome crowd is going to be pulling for #7.

Rams (0-1) @ Giants (0-1) - Rams' coach Spagnuolo is former Giant aide who helped them win Super Bowl, but players win games, and both sides have key injuries. St Louis lost offensive stars Jackson/Amendola in home opener loss, but QB Bradford (bruised finger on passing hand) will play here, much to relief of ESPN. Giants won last four series games, last three by an average score of 36-17, but Big Blue is hurting on defense, losing to Grossman (21-34/258) in opener. Manning converted only 1-10 on 3rd down, as Redskins outscored the Jersey offense 7-0 in second half. Giants are 10-5 as a favorite in home opener; they won last three, by 9-6-13 points. This is Rams' first MNF appearance in five years; they lost their last nine road openers, going 1-10 vs spread in last 11, with last five staying under total.

Week 2 Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers

Week 1 of the NFL gave us few surprises as only three teams receiving three points or more won outright to start the season. Heading into Week 2, a handful of clubs are laying heavy lumber with five teams listed as touchdown or more favorites in the early games. Two of those squads, New Orleans and Pittsburgh, are looking for their first wins of the season as each returns home. We'll start at Heinz Field with a rematch of Super Bowl XL with Seattle making the cross-country trip.

Seahawks at Steelers (-14, 40½)

Pittsburgh turned the ball over seven times in a disappointing 35-7 defeat at rival Baltimore last Sunday, as the Steelers head back home as two-touchdown favorites over the Seahawks. Seattle hung around at San Francisco as the Seahawks trailed the Niners, 19-17 with less than five minutes remaining. However, a pair of Ted Ginn, Jr. special teams' touchdowns gave San Francisco the cover and dropped Seattle to 5-21 SU the last 26 games on the road.

If you're afraid to lay this number with the Steelers, take credence in the following trend. Seattle has failed to cover each of its last eight games as a road underdog of at least nine points, while allowing at least 31 points in each of those losses. The Steelers were 4-0 SU/ATS last season off a loss, as Mike Tomlin's club held three of those opponents to 10 points or less.

Bears at Saints (-7, 47½)

The Falcons closed at short favorites in Week 1 for the second straight season, but Chicago made sure to let the football world know that last year's run to the NFC Title game was no fluke. The Bears dominated Atlanta with a 30-12 blowout at Soldier Field, while keeping the Falcons' offense out of the end zone. Chicago heads to the Big Easy where it will be anything but against a New Orleans' team trying to get its defense on track after allowing 42 points in a season-opening loss at Green Bay.

The Saints are very pedestrian as a home favorite in the Sean Payton era with a 16-16 ATS record when laying points at the Superdome. New Orleans' powerful offense will be without wide receiver Marques Colston, who broke his collarbone in last week's loss at Green Bay. The Bears likely will have veteran linebacker Brian Urlacher in the lineup following the death of his mother earlier in the week. Lovie Smith's club owned a 4-1 ATS mark as a road underdog last season, even though two of those covers came in outright wins over Carolina and Miami.

Chiefs at Lions (-8, 45)

The last time Detroit was listed as a six-point favorite or more came back in 2006 as the Niners marched into Ford Field and beat the Lions, 19-13. We know the struggles of this franchise over the years, but some people believe this is finally the season where Detroit turns things around. The Lions led off 2011 with an impressive 27-20 victory at Tampa Bay, the third straight road win for Jim Schwartz's team since dropping 26 in a row away from the Motor City. The Chiefs invade Detroit this Sunday after getting embarrassed at home by the Bills, while losing standout safety Eric Berry for the season with a torn ACL.

Kansas City covered five of eight games as an underdog last season, while the embattled Todd Haley is 6-1 ATS his last seven off a loss against a non-division opponent. Meanwhile, the Lions are 5-2 ATS the previous seven home games off a road contest, including a 3-0 SU/ATS ledger as a favorite since December 2009.

Jaguars at Jets (-9, 39)

Both these teams are coming off close-shave victories at home last week, even though Jacksonville led from start to finish in its win over Tennessee. The Jets needed a late rally to stun the Cowboys, even though New York failed to cover as six-point home favorites. Under Rex Ryan, the Jets are below average when laying points at home with a 6-9 ATS record, including a 2-5 ATS mark as six-point 'chalk' or more.

With David Garrard released days before the season opener, Luke McCown threw for an economical 175 yards, while Maurice Jones-Drew scored the lone Jacksonville touchdown. The Jags are 0-4 ATS the last four Week 2 contests, while scoring 17 points or less in each of those games. On the Jets side, the 'over' is riding a 19-6 run since December 2009, even though a majority of those 'overs' came on the road.

Packers (-10, 47) at Panthers

Green Bay's offense is on fire after torching New Orleans for 42 points in the Week 1 opener (granted the Packers scored on a 108-yard kickoff return as well). The Pack hits the highway for a trip to Charlotte against top pick Cam Newton and the Panthers, who came up short in a 28-21 loss at Arizona. Newton threw for 422 yards in the defeat, while Carolina's offense showed signs of life after breaking the 20-point barrier only twice last season.

Carolina was not only awful from the straight-up perspective in 2010, but cashed just four times last season. The Panthers owned a 3-10 ATS mark as an underdog, while going 1-4 ATS when receiving points at Bank of America Stadium. The Packers have been solid on the road under Mike McCarthy with a 12-7 ATS mark as away favorites since 2007, including a 34-12 victory at Detroit as 11½-point 'chalk' on Thanksgiving in 2009.

NFL Poolies' Cheat Sheet: Week 2
By Colin Kelly

Kansas City Chiefs at Detroit Lions (-9)

Why Chiefs cover: Last weekend’s debacle at home against Buffalo hard to overlook, but K.C. has been good lately as underdog and on road, going 7-3 ATS in last 10 catching points and 8-3 ATS in last 11 as road pup.

Why Lions cover: QB Matthew Stafford (3 TDs, 1 INT) is healthy and looked solid Week 1 on road vs. TB team that won 10 games last year. Detroit is on bundle of ATS streaks, including 6-0 overall, 7-1 at Ford Field, 7-0 after a SU win and 5-0 after a spread-cover.

Total (45): Detroit is on over runs of 10-3-1 overall and 8-2 at home.

Cleveland Browns (-1.5) at Indianapolis Colts

Why Browns cover: Cleveland normally couldn’t dream of being road favorite vs. Indy, but with Colts minus Peyton Manning, this could be the new normal. Browns 5-1 ATS in last six as road chalk. Colts in ATS slides of 2-6 overall and 1-5 in home dome.

Why Colts cover: Can’t be much worse than last week, when they got shelled 34-7 at Houston, and Cleveland lost 27-17 at home to a very suspect Cincinnati team.

Total (38): Under is 11-4 in Browns’ last 15 against losing teams, and under on stretches for Indy of 5-2-1 at home and 4-0 with Colts as ‘dogs.

Green Bay Packers (-9.5) at Carolina Panthers

Why Packers cover: Defending Super Bowl champions with arguably best QB in league in Aaron Rodgers. Panthers were worst team in league last year and have rookie QB in Cam Newton.

Why Panthers cover: Almost no positive ATS trends to speak of, but underdog 4-1 ATS in last five Panthers-Packers clashes. Also, Newton was impressive at Arizona, racking up 422 yards and two TDs in a 24-for-37 effort passing, with one interception.

Total (46.5): The under has hit in nine of Pack’s last 11 roadies and is 35-15-2 in Panthers’ last 52 at home.

Chicago Bears at New Orleans Saints (-6.5)

Why Bears cover: Drubbed solid Atlanta squad 30-12 in season opener as 1-point home pup. Chicago on ATS upswings of 5-1 overall, 5-1 in September and 8-3 catching points.

Why Saints cover: Didn’t get it done in season opener at Green Bay, but still piled up plenty of points behind QB Drew Brees (419 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs). Good bounceback team, with 14-5 ATS mark in last 19 following SU loss.

Total (47): Under 5-2 in Chicago’s last seven on road and 33-16-2 in Bears’ last 51 as road pup.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Minnesota Vikings (-3)

Why Buccaneers cover: Because Donovan McNabb might be the worst starting quarterback in the NFL.

Why Vikings cover: In favorite’s role, Minnesota on upticks of 4-1 overall and 8-2-1 at home dome. Home team also 13-3-1 ATS in last 17 Vikings-Bucs contests.

Total (40.5): Under 4-1 in last five of this rivalry in Minnesota. Total has also gone low in Bucs’ last four roadies, eight of last 11 with Tampa a road ‘dog.

Oakland Raiders at Buffalo Bills (-3.5)

Why Raiders cover: Running back Darren McFadden led the league in Week 1, racking up 150 rushing yards in a 23-20 win at Denver. Raiders 6-2 ATS last eight on highway – all as underdog – and 9-4 ATS in last 13 overall.

Why Bills cover: QB Ryan Fitzpatrick looks pretty good, with four TD passes and no turnovers in road rout of Kansas City. Buffalo on ATS runs of 8-3-1 overall, 4-1 laying points and 7-2 vs. AFC foes.

Total (42.5): Over on stretches for Oakland of 4-1 overall, 11-4-1 in September and 9-4 with Raiders as ‘dogs.

Arizona Cardinals at Washington Redskins (-4)

Why Cardinals cover: Kevin Kolb (309 passing yards, 2 TDs, no INTs in Week 1) appears much more suitable replacement for retired Kurt Warner. As favorite, Redskins on ATS skids of 1-7-1 overall and 0-6 at FedEx Field.

Why Redskins cover: On 4-0-1 ATS run, including outright home win vs. Giants in Week 1, and Washington also 6-2-2 ATS in last 10 vs. winning teams.

Total (44): Washington sports under streaks of 6-2 overall, 10-2-1 laying points and 7-0 as home chalk.

Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets (-9)

Why Jaguars cover: That’s a lot of points for a defensive team like Gang Green to cover. It’s not like Mark Sanchez lit the world on fire against Dallas.

Why Jets cover: Rex Ryan’s troops have cashed seven of last 10 following pointspread loss, and are on further ATS runs of 4-1 vs. AFC foes and 6-2 in September. Jacksonville on 2-8 ATS slide vs. winning teams.

Total (38.5): Over on a batch of upswings, including 8-3 overall for Jacksonville, 8-1 for Jags on road, 19-7 overall for New York and 8-3 with Jets a chalk.

Baltimore Ravens (-5.5) at Tennessee Titans

Why Ravens cover: Tennessee (3-7 ATS last 10) lost 16-14 on road vs. Jacksonville team that cut starting QB days before game. Ravens on boatload of ATS tears, including 5-2 overall, 5-1 giving points, 4-1 on road, 4-1 as road chalk and 8-2 in September.

Why Titans cover: Have covered eight of last 10 in home underdog role and 11 of last 15 in September. Titans also 4-1 ATS in last five of this rivalry, and underdog 16-5 ATS in last 21 Titans-Ravens clashes.

Total (37.5): Over 8-3 in Tennessee’s last 11 at home, though under on runs of 6-1-1 in this rivalry, 11-5-1 in Baltimore’s last 17 roadies and 7-2 with Baltimore a road favorite.

Seattle Seahawks at Pittsburgh Steelers (-14.5)

Why Seahawks cover: Okay, so Seattle might be the worst team in the league but Pittsburgh looked old and slow last week. And 14.5 is a lot of points.

Why Steelers cover: You know coach Mike Tomlin made life miserable for Steelers this past week. Pittsburgh has been good bounce-back bet, with ATS upswings of 4-0 following a SU loss and 4-0 after a pointspread defeat.

Total (40.5): Seattle on over streaks of 15-5-1 overall, 19-7-1 as a pup, 8-1 after a non-cover and 15-5-2 after a SU loss.

Dallas Cowboys (-3) at San Francisco 49ers

Why Cowboys cover: Tony Romo & Co. should be fuming after giving away season opener vs. Jets, and Cowboys can ill afford 0-2 start. Niners 1-6 ATS last seven after SU win and 1-9-1 ATS in last 11 after spread-cover.

Why 49ers cover: 9-4-2 ATS mark last 15 as underdog, while Dallas 1-7 ATS last eight laying points. Home team 3-0-1 ATS in last four Niners-Cowboys contests.

Total (42.5): Dallas on torrid 14-2 over streak, with over hitting in six of last seven roadies. Over 5-1 in San Fran’s last six overall and 4-1 in 49ers’ last five at home.

San Diego Chargers at New England Patriots (-7)

Why Chargers cover: Norv Turner’s troops rock solid ATS in underdog role, at 22-6-3 in last 31 overall and 18-6-3 in last 27 on road. Plus, pup 6-2 ATS in last eight Chargers-Pats contests.

Why Patriots cover: Bill Belichick’s boys have beaten the number six of last eight games, all as a chalk.

Total (53.5): If Tom Brady is taking snaps, over is smart play. Pats on over streaks of 17-4 overall, 15-5-1 at home and 14-2 as chalk.

Houston Texans (-3) at Miami Dolphins

Why Texans cover: Confident squad coming off blowout home win over Colts. Fish are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games.

Why Dolphins cover: Chad Henne played well in defeat last week. Houston is in unfamiliar territory as road favorite.

Total (47.5): Higher scores the norm for Dolphins at home, with over 12-4-1 last 17 in South Beach.

Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos (-4.5)

Why Bengals cover: Expectations way low in season opener, yet won outright getting 6.5 points at Cleveland. In fact, Bengals have covered four in a row overall, five of last six September tilts and four of last five as pup.

Why Broncos cover: New coach John Fox should be steaming after team’s poor effort in season-opening home loss to Raiders.

Total (40): Broncos carry over streaks of 17-5 overall, 9-0 laying points and 6-1 in Mile High City.

Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5) at Atlanta Falcons

Why Eagles cover: Because Michael Vick is too versatile. Last week, he threw for 187 yards and two TDs, and he ran for another 97 yards in win/cover at St. Louis.

Why Falcons cover: Should be plenty focused after getting battered at Chicago in Week 1, and they’ve shown propensity for bounce back, at 16-5 ATS last 21 after either SU or pointspread loss.

Total (49.5): Scoring is order of day for both squads. Over 10-4 in Eagles’ last 14 outings and has hit in seven straight roadies for Philly. Over for Atlanta on surges of 9-2-2 overall.

St. Louis Rams at New York Giants (-5.5)

Why Rams cover: Giants are missing a good chunk of their starting defense due to injuries.

Why Giants cover: Rams likely without star RB Steven Jackson, and St. Louis QB Sam Bradford will play but nursing hand injury. Tom Coughlin’s squad 4-1 ATS last five under Monday night spotlight, Giants on 5-0 ATS tear in this rivalry, and chalk 5-2 ATS last seven meetings.

Total (43): Eli Manning & Co. mustered just 14 points last week, but stats say they’re due for much more, with Giants on over stretches of 15-7 overall, 4-1 at home, 7-2 in September and 15-5 within NFC.

Week 2 Line Moves
By Micah Roberts

The Las Vegas Hilton Super Book had an early line for Week 2 NFL games prior to the start of Week 1 with the Falcons a 1½-point favorite over the visiting Eagles. Once the games start, the Hilton takes the lines off the board and then readjusts later in the evening based on what happened to both teams in their games.

In each case of these two teams, what happened in their first game drastically changed perceptions of them and altered the line considerably. Following the Eagles 31-13 trouncing at St. Louis and the Falcons lackluster performance at Chicago, the Eagles became a 2½-point favorite.

The knee-jerk reaction on line movement isn’t just a matter each team rating be adjusted, but also a matter of how the public feels. The sports books know how the public plays and they react to a teams’ performance anticipating what their perception will be. Everyone loved the Eagles last week and they dominated which will carry momentum into the next week at the bet windows.

The massive adjustment wouldn’t have occurred had the Falcons gave any inkling that that they were the same team from last two years, but they didn’t. The public is down on the Falcons and high on the Eagles.

Based on the line movement from when the Hilton re-opened the game on Sunday night, it appears they were 100% correct. They’ve had two-way action on the game throughout the week and never had to go to Eagles -3. The larger bets are on the Falcons with all the small money siding with the Eagles. The line still sits with Eagles a -2½-point favorite.

The Saints opened a 7-point favorite in their home game against Chicago. The public loves the Saints, but respected money came in on the Bears dropping it to -6½. However, the public overwhelmed that money and it is now back up to -7.

The Lions-Chiefs game is in the same category as the Eagles game where both teams altered opinions of the public after one week of play. Everyone loves the Lions and hates the Chiefs. It’s a hard sell to take Kansas City after watching Buffalo thrash them on their home field. The Lions went from -7½-point favorites to -8½ and has since dropped back -7½ because of sharp money taking value on the Chiefs.

The Jets have dropped from 10½-point favorites to -9 against the Jaguars because of respected money. The small money all loves the Jets.

Following the Redskins impressive performance against the Giants last week, they opened as 4½-point favorites to the visiting Cardinals. The game has since fallen to -3½ with many not believing the Redskins and Rex Grossman can play the same way two straight weeks.

The Ravens had a massive adjustment in their game at Tennessee on the basis of their beat down on Pittsburgh. Before Sunday’s game they were 3½-point favorites and when the game re-opened after Sunday’s results, they were -5½. The line got as high as -6, but has settled on the dead number of -5½.

The Steelers were set to be 13-point favorites before their performance at Baltimore. Despite their poor play, they re-opened at -14.5 against Seattle. The readjustment is based on the Steelers expected to take out their frustration from last week on whoever they play as well as the Seahawks showing in week 1 that they might be the worst offensive team in football. The Steelers are currently -14.

The Chargers kind of showed the world that they are the same team as last season who are capable of losing to anyone on any given day. The Patriots were set to be 5½-point favorites for their home match against San Diego, but after the Chargers un-impressive win and Tom Brady throwing for 517 yards on Monday night, the game was adjusted to -6½ and then bet up to -7. Large Chargers money took the +7 and it now currently sits at 6½.

The Broncos were set as 6-point favorites for their home game against the Bengals, but after Denver couldn’t punch the ball in for scores in Week 1 and Cincinnati playing well against the Browns, the game went to -4 and has since been dropped to -3½.

The biggest total adjustment came with the Texans-Dolphins game following Monday night’s game. Who knew the Dolphins could be so prolific with their passing game? The game opened 43, but on Tuesday following the Dolphins performance against the Patriots, it had been adjusted to 46. Since then, it has been bet up as high as 48½ until finally getting someone to nibble on the 'under.' The total currently sits at 48.

NFL Week 2's Biggest Betting Mismatches
By Scott Cooley

Chicago Bears at New Orleans Saints (-6.5, 47)

Bears offense vs. Saints defensive line

It’s no secret that the Achilles’ heel of Chicago is the offensive line. But this week’s opponent may not have the personnel to exploit that weakness.

Shaun Rogers and Aubrayo Franklin were supposed to improve a Saints pass rush that ranked in the bottom half of the NFL last year in sacks. They were non-factors during the Week 1 loss to Green Bay. Overall, the pressure from a thin front four was weak and prevented them from getting off the field on third downs.

“As a defense…we just need to get better at some things,” defensive tackle Sedrick Ellis told reporters.

New Orleans’ best pass rusher, Will Smith, will be sidelined again this week while finishing a two-game suspension for the StarCaps incident. The Bears offensive line is certainly vulnerable, but the offense as a whole looks worlds improved in its second year under Mike Martz.

Cleveland Browns at Indianapolis Colts (+1.5, 40)

Browns rushing offense vs. Colts rushing defense

It wasn’t Arian Foster racking up 231 rushing yards this time, but it was the same old story for the Colts run defense.

Ben Tate, Derrick Ward and Steve Slaton combined for 167 yards and two scores against Indianapolis in Week 1. The run defense could be even worse this week with middle linebacker Gary Brackett and reserve linebacker Ernie Sims sidelined.

Cleveland’s mammoth offensive line that carries an average weight of 314 pounds will be able to push around the Colts defense. Petyon Hillis and Monterio Hardesty should have big outings Sunday.

Seattle Seahawks at Pittsburgh Steelers (-14, 40)

Steelers pass rush vs. Seahawks offensive line

Vic Fangio threw the kitchen sink at Seattle’s offensive line last week and Tarvaris Jackson danced around the field like Michael Jackson. The 49ers recorded five sacks, eight quarterback hits and nine tackles for loss against the young Seahawks line.

With Robert Gallery sidelined, rookies James Carpenter and John Moffitt started at the guard positions. Those two, a pair of second-year players and Breno Giacomini comprised the youngest offensive line fielded by a team in 16 years.

Pittsburgh led the league in sacks last season (48) but they only got one in Week 1, and weren’t happy about it. Gallery is expected to return Sunday but this line will struggle again as it learns new schemes under Tom Cable.

Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans (+5.5, 38)

Ray Rice vs. Titans rushing defense

It only took one week, but questions about Baltimore’s revamped offensive line have been put to rest.

Bryant McKinnie and Michael Oher will have little trouble sealing off holes for Ray Rice against a thin group of Tennessee defensive ends. Rice and Ricky Williams ran for 170 yards against arguably the league’s best run defense last week.

The Titans had issues defending the run in their opener, yielding 153 total yards on the ground, including 97 from Maurice Jones-Drew. Derrick Morgan and Jason Jones are expected to return for Tennessee but William Hayes has a shoulder injury. And the loss of Stephen Tulloch may have more of an impact on linebacker depth than originally envisioned.

Total Talk - Week 2
By Chris David

Week 1 Recap

One week of NFL action is in the books and total players watched the ‘over’ blaze to an 11-3-2 (78%) record. Anytime you have big plays, you’re going to get big scores and that’s what happened during the opening weekend. Eleven touchdowns were produced by special teams and defense, including five punt returns.

The sudden scoring surge was noticed at the betting counter as well and they made adjustments for the Week 2. In the first installment, six of the 16 games had totals of 39 points or less. This weekend, we only have two games that are sitting in the thirties and the Jaguars-Jets game (39) could hit 40 by kickoff.

Bad Beats

The NFC West affair between San Francisco and Seattle had a total of 38. The 49ers led 16-0 at half and 19-10 with four minutes to go in the game. Then, the two clubs combined for 21 points on three big plays, two coming on special teams from the 49ers’ Tedd Ginn. Make a note that both teams barely eclipsed 200 yards of total offense.

Even without Peyton Manning on the field, the total for the Colts and Texans 'over/under' closed at 44 points. Houston jumped out early and often, building a 34-0 lead at half. Houston had a chance to add at least an extra three points but Matt Schaub was picked off in the redzone. The Colts put a touchdown in the fourth, but they also missed a field goal and turned the ball over on downs after getting a first-and-goal from the Texans’ seven-yard line.

First-half ‘over’ bettors took one on the chin this past Monday. The Patriots built a 14-7 lead on the Dolphins with 14 minutes left in the first-half. The closing number at most books was sitting at 23½ points. Five punts and a field goal miss later, the score stayed 14-7 heading into the third quarter.

Non-Divisional Battles

A key part of handicapping football matchups is looking history between the two teams. Unfortunately, the sample size this week won’t offer much help since we have no divisional games on tap. Due to the lockout this year the NFL decided to tweak the schedule just in case weeks of the regular season were lost. Along with this weekend, Week 4 will have no divisional battles either. The clubs playing on the road this week will be at home two weeks from now and vice versa.

If you’re betting sides in Week 2, I would certainly lean towards the unexpected because non-divisional games don’t mean as much and I believe you’re going to see some teams in 0-2 holes that you wouldn’t have expected. However, starting out 0-2 with no divisional losses isn’t as bad as it looks.

What’s even tougher about this week’s slate is that we only have two matchups, San Diego-New England and Philadelphia-Atlanta, where the two teams met during the 2010 season.

Coincidentally, those two games have the highest totals on the board.

The total on the Chargers-Patriots has spiked up to 53½ at some shops and while both teams have the ability to get that number, the past history doesn’t bode well. The pair have met every season since 2007 and the ‘under’ is 3-1 in those four affairs and only one of those contests was played in poor weather (Jan. 2008). The highest total during this span was 48½.

Philadelphia has won and covered three straight against Atlanta, including a 31-17 victory last season at home. That outcome went ‘over’ the number but the two previous affairs stayed ‘under’ the number. This week’s number is high and definitely inflated. The Eagles put up 31 last week against St. Louis, seven coming from their defense. Meanwhile, Atlanta was ripped by the Bears (12-30) on the road and its only touchdown was from its defense.

Under the Lights

The parlay combination of Favorite-Over is dreaded behind the betting counter and most often played the betting public. When that outcome happens in a nationally televised game, it’s not good for the sportsbooks. Last week, three of the four primetime games went ‘over’ the number, with Oakland and Denver resulting in a push.

What’s ironic about those games is that three of the four were on an ‘under’ pace heading into the second-half. When that happens, a lot of the public gamblers like to chase their bets, especially ‘over’ tickets. Unfortunately for the books, all four primetime games watched the ‘over’ cash in the second-half, quite easily too.

Philadelphia-Atlanta (see above) and St. Louis-New York Giants will be this week’s primetime games and both have high numbers, the Rams and Giants in particular. St. Louis and New York both gave up 31 and 28 points respectively last week, but defensive touchdowns were included in those numbers. Plus, the Rams have some banged up players on offense in quarterback Sam Bradford (finger) and running back Steven Jackson (quad). And the Giants’ wide receiver Hakeem Nicks (knee) isn’t 100 percent, which is big considering he hauled in seven passed for 122 yards last week.

Fearless Predictions

We’re back for another year of free winners…we hope. Along with our Best Bet ‘over’ and ‘under’ winners, we’re giving out the weekly Three-Teamer and introducing a Team Total play this season as well.

Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Arizona-Washington 44

Best Under: Dallas-San Francisco 42.5

Best Team Total: Under Cincinnati 17.5

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Over Arizona-Washington 35
Under Dallas-San Francisco 51.5
Under Seattle-Pittsburgh 49

NFL Betting Weather Report: Week 2

Your Week 2 handicapping check list is complete – except for factoring in this Sunday’s forecast into your wagers. Check what the weather has in store this weekend:

Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans (+5.5, 38)

Thunderstorms are in the forecast for Nashville Sunday. There’s a 40 percent chance of rain, which could slow down dynamic running backs Ray Rice and Chris Johnson. This total has climbed just half a point since opening at 37.5.

Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers (+3, 42.5)

The sun will be out in the Bay Area, but the winds at Candlestick could make passing and kicking the football tougher for the Niners and Cowboys. Winds, blowing west sideline to sideline, will reach speeds of 15 mph Sunday. This total has climbed a point after opening at 41.5.

Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins (+3, 47.5)

Thunderstorms are on their way to South Beach. There’s a 32 percent chance of rain in the forecast for Sun Life Stadium. Winds will also pick up, blowing ENE at speeds of up to 15 mph. Sunday’s total has climbed as high as 48 after opening at 46 points.

NFL Week 2 Gambling Previews
By Fairway Jay

We enter Week 2 off a 3-1 Sunday and look to duplicate or even improve on our results with the experience and stats of Week 1 games to analyze and review. Many bettors and especially the public overreact to Week 1 results with the influence of a good or bad performance from just one week of action impacting their decisions. With so much excitement and anticipation for the season, you’re wise to temper your enthusiasm and understand both the good and bad breaks that can happen in the NFL. After all, we suffered the toughest total loss in Week 1 action when incredibly the 49ers and Seahawks went over the total after two horrible offensive performances. They combined for just 26 points and less than 370 yards through 54 minutes of action before the meltdown.

On to Week 2 and here are some thoughts and analysis, along with ATS situations that may help you to play on, against or perhaps pass on a game based on information you may not have known.

Chicago at New Orleans -6.5 O/U 47 – The Bears were impressive in their dismantling of the Falcons last week at Soldier Field and now must take on another NFC South opponent with a high-powered offense. The Saints racked up 477 yards offense and 6.5 yards per play (ypp) in their 42-34 loss to Green Bay last Thursday (an over winner for us), and New Orleans continues to get much love in the betting markets for its potent offense. But the Saints are just 6-11 ATS since the start of last season. Not enough believers in the Bears I guess, despite an 11-5 record last year, division crown and dominating opening week win as a home underdog over Atlanta. Cutler and Brees could air it out often and despite the extra rest and prep for the Saints, know that Week 2 favorites off the season opening Thursday night game are just 3-10 ATS including 1-6 ATS at home.

Kansas City at Detroit -7.5 O/U 45 – What’s going on here? A 6-10 team from last year over a TD favorite against a 10-6 team that won their division? Safe to say there is some (over) reaction to Week 1's results, as the Chiefs were embarrassed at home by the Bills 41-7 with just 218 yards offense while Lions growled on the 27-20 over Tampa Bay. But to show you the value in the number, this line suggests that Detroit would have been favored at Kansas City in Week 1 (without knowing the results). The reality is that would not have been the case. So is it bounce back for KC or continued momentum and Detroit? The Lions have now won and covered nine-straight games since the start of the preseason and going back the final four games of last year. No doubt the Motor City kitties are getting their claws back and beginning to make their mark. The Chiefs looked awful in preseason and it carried over badly in Week 1. The Lions were 7-1 ATS on this field last year and the fans and team should be primed to carry the momentum with this being Detroit’s only home game in the first four weeks. So despite a negative 1-5-1 ATS situation (Detroit off its Week 1 upset facing an opponent off a loss as favorite) I’m still struggling to support the Chiefs even with some perceived value in the line. Expect Detroit to win this game (with limited turnovers), but know that betting the Lions is a bigger risk this week. This is Detroit’s biggest favorite role in over a decade, and even the kitties have to prove they can claw, fight and win big battles convincingly before they become kings of the jungle.

Oakland at Buffalo -4 O/U 42 – Few teams were more impressive than the Bills in Week 1 with their 41-7 crushing of the Chiefs. I expect their offensive production to continue against the Raiders, who upset division rival Denver on the road. The West to East travel is just one negative for the Raiders, as teams off an upset win over a division opponent tend to have a little letdown the following week. Add in a short week off a Monday night game and cross-country travel and the Raiders find themselves in a tough sport. Raiders’ running back McFadden should have another good day after 150 yards rushing last week and now facing the league’s worst run defense from last year. The Bills are improved on that side of the ball, but with one of the best kickers in Janikowski, the Raiders will get their chances to score. Normally I'd make a play on Oakland with the better defense and running game as an underdog, but the schedule situation and travel doesn’t get much worse, and Campbell still has to show more production at quarterback.

Arizona at Washington -3.5 O/U 44 – We cashed with the Redskins (+3) in their win over the Giants last week 28-14. And this one looks easy, as another poor traveling team has to go across the country to the East Coast -- Arizona is just 3-9 ATS in this travel role. I expect the Redskins' running game to improve with Mike Shanahan’s zone blocking scheme and Tim Hightower to have success against his former team. Add in the stronger defense and it shapes up for a solid Redskins win. Ah, but Rex Grossman showed again last week that he’s capable of untimely mistakes, and there are a few ATS indicators working against Washington off their opening week division win. But consider that Arizona allowed over 400 passing yards to a rookie quarterback making his debut last week and 7.0 ypp to a below average Carolina offense and there has to be concerns about their defense as they were fortunate to win 28-21 in Week 1. There are some positive parameters pointing to a score less than Sunday’s total, including a very strong subset with both teams going over the total in Week 1. The final thing that points me to Washington is that despite bettors being concerned about laying the ‘hook’ at -3.5, the team that wins the game SU in a competitively lined contest (6-points or less), covered the spread 89% of the time last season (sample size over 160 games), and was 10-1 in ATS in Week 1. I believe Washington is your winner Sunday.

Seattle at Pittsburgh -14 O/U 40 – We also cashed with Baltimore last Sunday as they dismantled their division nemesis Pittsburgh 34-7. Many expect a big bounce back from the Steelers and Big Ben, but keep your money in your pocket if you’re thinking about betting the Steelers. Seven turnovers were not the only problem for Pittsburgh last week. The league’s #1 rushing defense from last season allowed 170 rushing yards! That angry and dominating defense is plenty capable of shutting down a sluggish Seahawks offense that is likely to struggle with quarterback Tarvaris Jackson. Seattle managed just 219 yards at San Fran last week and only 3.3 ypp. Three turnovers did them in along with poor special teams. But the Seahawks defense delivered holding the 49ers to just eight first downs and 209 yards (4.0 ypp). Anything close to that defensive effort keeps them in this game. How motivated will Pittsburgh be after getting blitzed by rival Baltimore? You’re on your own if you bet into these Week 2 situations, as home favorites at this price point have covered less than 20% of the time off a loss, including 0-10 ATS their last ten tries. In fact, Pittsburgh has been in this role twice the past four years, and won 3-0 and lost 27-24 as a huge betting favorites. Add in that road underdogs off a loss of 14 or more points are a profitable play near 60% long term, and you have your answer on what to do with Pittsburgh – pass. However, trusting Jackson with our money on the road against a Class-A defense has very little appeal, as I’m not sure he’ll lead them to double-digit points. Under is the more likely result as long as Pittsburgh doesn’t get carried away with no-huddle on offense, which is reportedly in their game plan this week.

Green Bay -10 at Carolina O/U 45.5 – What a sensational debut for Cam Newton in defeat. He passed for over 400 yards, and showed the ability to take off and run when pass protection broke down or receivers were covered. That will happen much more often Sunday against Green Bay, as their coverage and pass rush is much stronger. Still, not a favorable situation for Green Bay, and those opening week Thursday teams are just 3-10 ATS in Week 2. Note that the Packers have their biggest rival Bears on deck and the Newton/Smith pass/catch combo could at worst have a shot to slide through the backdoor late.

Dallas -3 at San Francisco O/U 42 – This could prove to be a tough spot for Dallas but I still prefer the more talented and capable Cowboys despite a less than favorable price. Dallas gave one away last week at New York with three turnovers including two costly ones in the fourth quarter. But both the offense (400 yards/6.1 ypp) and defense played well, unlike the 49ers in Jim Harbaugh’s debut. San Francisco managed just eight first downs, 209 yards offense at 4.0 yards per play while going just 1-for-13 on third down. Their 33-17 win was the most misleading score of the week. The 49ers defense played well, but against Tarvaris Jackson in his Seattle debut, I’m hardly impressed. Especially when that defense game up a 60-yard pass for a TD late. They screwed us on our under the total play with that late Seattle touchdown and then the 100-yard kickoff return by Ted Ginn. He’s dangerous, but Alex Smith is not. Full focus expected by the Big D, and despite some ATS systems and danger signs against them and knowing that the 49ers are 13-5 ATS at home the past three seasons including 3-0 ATS as home underdog, I prefer the match-ups in favor of the Cowboys.

San Diego at New England -7 O/U 53 – Marquee match-up of the day with two of the top quarterbacks in the game who are likely to put on another offensive show. Still, an inflated total after the whole world saw Tom Brady’s record setting night Monday as the Patriots rolled up a remarkable 622 yards led by Brady’s 500+ yards passing. San Diego was doing their deal again last week; dominating an opponent and burning their betting backers. With a 407-187 yard advantage and 30-10 first downs edge, the Chargers beat the Vikings 24-17 but failed to cover. They played the game without kicker Nate Kaeting, who was injured on the opening kickoff (returned by the Vikings Percy Harvin for a TD) and is now out for the year. San Diego signed kicker Nick Novak as a replacement. The Patriots were impressive in Week 1, but the Chargers have the offensive weapons and top quarterback to answer along with the league’s #1 defense from last season that showed very well in Week 1. Keep in mind that the Patriots allowed Chad Henne of all people to carve them up while allowing a total of 488 yards at 6.7 ypp to the Dolphins. Now consider that the Chargers fit a Game 2 situational system that is 11-1 ATS. Also note that San Diego has covered 22 of their last 27 games as an underdog, and we’ll gladly take a shot with this dangerous ‘Dog despite the West to East travel again.

Philadelphia -2.5 at Atlanta O/U 49.5 – Sunday night primetime game features Michael Vick’s return to Atlanta where he was the toast of the town for years. Then that dog thing. As much as I want to play Atlanta here, they are not the better team and the way they lost last week is a concern. The Falcons are a bit overrated. So too may be the Eagles, but they are still the more talented team and have the shutdown secondary to slow Atlanta signal caller Matt Ryan. A close examination of the Falcons defense (who else would provide this for you) shows they perform poorly on defense against winning teams. In fact going back in their most recent seasons, Atlanta has allowed nearly 300 ypg on average to sub-par opponents and nearly 400 yards to winning teams. Vick is still an overrated quarterback IMO, and look no further than his 14-for-32 and 167 net yards passing yards last week. But he can still burn you on the ground if the defense doesn’t hold their lanes, and the Eagles rushed for a league-high 237 yards in Week 1. The skill position players and surrounding cast for Vick are fast and supremely talented. Well aware of Atlanta’s strength on this field including 14-2 SU vs. non-division opponents the past four seasons as well as head coach Mike Smith's 20-4 SU/ATS mark in the Georgia Dome during the regular season. But Philly is 25-0 SU when they score 24 or more points and they beat Atlanta 31-17 last season with Kevin Kolb under center. Not sure Atlanta will get its revenge.