Early Line Moves - Week 2
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
Week 2 of the regular season starts early again with New England hosting the New York Jets on Thursday from Gillette Stadium. The first betting shop to open odds for the second week was CRIS, a major offshore outfit.
Below are the early line moves since the numbers were posted at 8:00 p.m. ET on Sunday.
Early Moves
New England vs. N.Y. Jets
Open: Patriots -10
Monday: Patriots -12.5
Betting Notes - The Patriots have won the last four encounters (3-1 ATS) against the Jets but the previous two games played in Foxboro were decided by nine (30-21) and three points (29-26). New England dropped its home opener last season, falling to Arizona 20-18 as a 13 1/2-point favorite.
Indianapolis vs. Miami
Open: Pick 'em
Monday: Colts -3
Betting Notes - The Colts beat the Dolphins 23-20 last season as 2 1/2-point home underdogs. Including 2012 and last week's win over Oakland, the Colts are 8-1 at Lucas Oil Stadium with Andrew Luck as their starting quarterback.
Arizona vs. Detroit
Open: Pick 'em
Monday: Lions -1.5
Betting Notes - The Lions went 2-6 both SU and ATS on the road last season, victories coming against the Eagles and Jaguars, who went a combined 6-26. One of the six losses in 2012 came to Arizona, who destroyed Detroit 38-10 in Week 15.
Oakland vs. Jacksonville
Open: Raiders -3.5
Monday: Raiders -5.5
Betting Notes - Oakland hasn't been a sound investment when listed as a favorite in recent seasons, producing a 4-15-1 record versus the number in its last 20 situations. In 2012, the Raiders were 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS when listed as favorites. Oakland defeated Jacksonville 26-23 last season at home, but failed to cover the point-spread (6.5). Blaine Gabbert (hand) has been ruled 'out' for Sunday by the Jaguars, which means Chad Henne will start at quarterback.
Total Adjustments
Cleveland vs. Baltimore
Open: 42
Monday: 43.5
Betting Notes - The Ravens gave up 49 points to Denver in Week 1, which helped the 'over' cash. If you include the preseason numbers, Baltimore is 5-0 to the 'over' this season. However, the Browns watched the 'under' cash in their opening week loss at home to Miami and the last four divisional battles between the pair has seen the 'under' cash.
Denver vs. N.Y. Giants
Open: 52.5
Monday: 54.5
Betting Notes - The Broncos scored 49 points in Week 1, 35 of them coming in the second-half. The Giants turned the ball over six times but still managed to put 30 points on the board in their 36-30 road loss to the Cowboys on Sunday. Including the outcome last Thursday, Denver has scored 30-plus points in nine of 10 home games with Peyton Manning under center. This will be the third battle between Peyton and Eli Manning. When he was the QB of the Colts, Peyton beat the Giants and Eli twice, 26-21 in 2006 and 38-14 in 2010.
Future Update
The LVH SuperBook in Las Vegas updated their NFL future odds. Even though three of the first five choices are from the NFC, the early line for Super Bowl XLVIII still has the AFC listed as a one-point favorite, which moved up from a pick 'em. The total also moved from 50 to 51 1/2 points.
Odds to win Super Bowl XLVIII
Denver Broncos 9/2
San Francisco 49ers 6/1
Seattle Seahawks 6/1
New England Patriots 8/1
Green Bay Packers 10/1
New Orleans Saints 12/1
Houston Texans 12/1
New York Giants 15/1
Dallas Cowboys 15/1
Atlanta Falcons 18/1
Chicago Bears 20/1
Cincinnati Bengals 25/1
Washington Redskins 30/1
Miami Dolphins 30/1
Indianapolis Colts 30/1
Carolina Panthers 40/1
Pittsburgh Steelers 40/1
Baltimore Ravens 40/1
Detroit Lions 40/1
Kansas City Chiefs 40/1
St Louis Rams 50/1
San Diego Chargers 60/1
New York Jets 60/1
Philadelphia Eagles 60/1
Tennessee Titans 75/1
Minnesota Vikings 100/1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 100/1
Cleveland Browns 100/1
Buffalo Bills 100/1
Arizona Cardinals 100/1
Oakland Raiders 300/1
Jacksonville Jaguars 1000/1
Super Bowl XLVIII Early Line
AFC -1, 51.5
NFL Betting Week 2 Preview: Hot Bets and Moving Odds
By Covers.com
Sports Interaction betting analyst Frank Doyle previews Week 2’s NFL action.
For veteran bettors, Week 1 probably went just as expected. There were some big lines on the board and the underdogs held their own. Four outright underdogs won straight up and dogs finished 8-7-1 overall. Week 2’s lines have come down a bit across the Sports Interaction board so let’s dig in.
All odds current as of noon ET, Sept. 12.
Key numbers
Week 2’s board features a ton of field goal and touchdown lines. Unlike last week, where the lines were all over the place, this time we have four pointspreads of seven points and three pointspreads of three points. New England is the big favorite at -11 at home to the New York Jets Thursday and Arizona is the slightest favorite at -1.5 at home to the Detroit Lions.
Patriot games
Last week, the New England Patriots were big favorites but couldn’t cover in a tight win over Buffalo. They opened as 13-point favorites in Week 2 against the Jets, but that line is dropping steadily as the club works on a short week with injury concerns. Shane Vereen is out for a while and Danny Amendola and Rob Gronkowski are very, very doubtful. When the Pats were 12.5-point favorites, 70 percent of Sports Interaction’s tickets were coming in on New England, but that’s changed as the game nears. Now as New England sits as an 11-point favorite, just 56 percent of the action is coming in on the Pats.
More odds on the move
The Baltimore Ravens opened as 6.5-point favorites at home to Cleveland but it looks as though the betting public is a bit concerned after that spanking they took from Denver. The Ravens have moved from -6.5 to -6.
It’s hard to get a read on the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Oakland Raiders. Are the Jags really as bad as they showed in last week’s blowout loss? Are the Raiders better than expected? These are questions bettors are asking themselves as this line bounces between Oakland -6 and -5.5. Don’t be surprised if this line flutters right up until kickoff.
Talking totals
If you can’t guess the two 50-plus totals on the board this week, you haven’t done your homework. The Philadelphia Eagles blazed through their win over Washington last week only to hear coach Chip Kelly say their no-huddle wasn’t fast enough. Philly is a 9.5-point favorite hosting San Diego and oddsmakers have a 55-point total posted. If Kelly has it his way, over bettors might be cashing their tickets by halftime.
Meanwhile, after throwing seven touchdowns last week, Peyton Manning and his Broncos see another 55-point total when they visit Eli and the Giants. Denver is a 4.5-point favorite. Dating back to last year, the over has gone 4-0-1 in Denver’s last five games.
Who’s hot, who’s not
There is a lot of weird stuff going on with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Quarterback Josh Freeman was stripped of his captaincy before the season began and missed the team photo, leading to a players-only meeting in Week 1. This week the Bucs host the Saints as 3.5-point underdogs and 94 percent of the action is coming in on New Orleans.
Baltimore bettors expect the defending champs to bounce back in a big way. The Ravens are seeing 93 percent of the action as 6-point favorites against Cleveland.
After surviving a scare in Week 1, the public is all over the Colts to cover the field goal spread as they host the Miami Dolphins. Right now, just 11 percent of bettors are siding with Miami.
Week 2 Sharp Moves
By Mike Rose
VegasInsider.com
All public betting percentages courtesy of VegasInsider.com's databases as of Thursday afternoon.
Washington/Green Bay Under 49.5 - The Redskins and Packers both had lousy defensive weeks in Week 1, but that has really just pushed the number in the game between these two far too high.
Opening Line: 49
Current Line: 49.5
Public Betting Percentage: 97% on the over
St. Louis +6.5 - The Rams are the 1-0 team in this bunch against the Falcons, but these two teams might be a lot more similar than the oddsmakers are letting on to. Someone clearly knows something in this game. Don't believe me? Check out the trends and the public betting percentages.
Opening Line: St. Louis +7.5
Current Line: St. Louis +6.5
Public Betting Percentage: 76% on Atlanta
Miami +2.5 - The Colts looked horrid last week against the Raiders but still found a way to win the game. Miami wasn't exactly as awesome as could be against a bad Cleveland team, but wins on the road are hard to come by in this league, and it was a good result for the Fins. They could pull off the upset again this week, too.
Opening Line: Miami +3
Current Line: Miami +2.5
Public Betting Percentage: 75% on Indianapolis
Tampa Bay +3.5 - Home underdogs, particularly within this range tend to do really well in NFL betting action, and this could be no exception. It's a divisional game, and the Bucs and Saints know all about each other and what they are going to try to do in this one. There's no doubt that New Orleans is more talented, but is it by enough to win by more than a field goal on the road?
Opening Line: Tampa Bay +3.5
Current Line: Tampa Bay +3.5
Public Betting Percentage: 89% on New Orleans
New Orleans/Tampa Bay Under 47 - Same game. Over bettors are clearly looking at the fact that QB Drew Brees and company historically put up 30+ points in games like this one and perhaps not the fact that QB Josh Freeman still stinks. Oh yes, and New Orleans only put up 23 points last week against a suspect Atlanta defense at home.
Opening Line: 47
Current Line: 47
Public Betting Percentages: 93% on the over
Arizona +1.5 - The line move here is at least apparent, but anyone in Vegas will tell you that the move from pk to 1.5 isn't all that large. Arizona was a six-point dog last year when these two teams played, but the Lions got destroyed.
Opening Line: Pick 'Em
Current Line: Arizona +1.5
Public Betting Percentages: 80% on Detroit