NFL Betting Recap - Week 1
VegasInsider.com
Biggest Favorite to Cash
Philadelphia (-10) defeated Jacksonville, 34-17
Biggest Underdog to Cash
Buffalo (+7, +250 ML) defeated Chicago, 23-20 (OT)
Blowing in the Wind
Three public favorites were on their way to cashing easily, but the Steelers, Saints, and Patriots failed to cover. Pittsburgh managed a last-second field goal to edge Cleveland as six-point home favorites, 30-27, as the Steelers squandered a 27-3 lead before the Browns rallied to tie the game at 27-27.
New Orleans and New England weren't as lucky in the road 'chalk' role. The Saints blew a 13-0 advantage in a 37-34 setback to the Falcons in overtime, as Atlanta tied the game with a last-second field at the end of regulation. Atlanta cashed as three-point home favorites, while avenging a pair of losses to New Orleans last season.
The Patriots threw away a 17-7 edge at Miami, as the Dolphins outscored New England, 26-3 in the final 32 minutes of a 33-20 loss at Sun Life Stadium. New England closed as 3½-point road favorites, as Bill Belichick's team lost its season opener for the first time since 2003.
Back (and front) door left open
The Raiders were totally outclassed by the Jets in Week 1, getting outgained 402-158. However, Oakland managed to cash as six-point road underdogs in a 19-14 defeat at New York thanks to a Derek Carr touchdown pass in the final two minutes.
So you think you were sharp by taking the Jaguars and 10 points. Things looked good for Jacksonville backers with a 17-0 halftime advantage, but Philadelphia scored the final 34 points of the game, capped off by a fumble return for a touchdown with 1:23 left to cover the double-digit line. Fair to say (after the fact) that taking the Eagles -7 ½ in the second half was probably the easiest second half bet of the week.
Bark like a dog
Nine underdogs cashed on Sunday afternoon, including four road teams that won outright. Cincinnati and Minnesota weren't that shocking, but how many people had Buffalo winning at Chicago? The Bills built a 17-7 halftime lead at Soldier Field as seven-point underdogs, but Chicago rallied to tie the game and force overtime. Following a Chicago punt on its first possession of overtime, Buffalo drove for the game-winning field goal to shock the Bears, 23-20.
The Titans opened as six-point underdogs at Kansas City, but that line moved all the way down to three at kickoff. Tennessee rolled at Arrowhead Stadium, 26-10, knocking off the defending AFC West champions by limiting Kansas City to 245 yards of offense. For the second straight season, the Titans won their season opener on the road in the underdog role, as Tennessee stunned Pittsburgh last season in Week 1.
Chase is on
For the bettors that lost with favorites in the 1:00 kickoffs, have no fear because the 49ers took care of the business in the dreaded "chase" game with a 28-17 victory at Dallas as 3½-point road favorites. The same can't be said for those who wanted to fade Carolina after news broke that Cam Newton was inactive. The Panthers played very well without their starting quarterback as Derek Anderson led Carolina to a 20-14 triumph at Tampa Bay as four-point 'dogs, while the two touchdowns by the Bucs came in the fourth quarter.
Week 1 Review
By Dave Cokin
Quick takes from Sunday’s Week One NFL results:
There were some awful beats on the Sunday slate, and the Jaguars failing to stay inside the doubles against the Eagles is certainly on that not so short list. Jacksonville won the first half 17-0, and then remarkably lost the second by a whopping 34-0 count. The Philly cover came on a Chad Henne fumble that got returned for a TD with just more than one minute remaining. Undrafted rookie WR Allen Hurns was the surprise star for the Jaguars, while QB Nick Foles recovered from a terrible start to lead the Eagles rally.
The day’s best game was the rivalry shootout between the Saints and Falcons. New Orleans looked as though they might dominate early, but as is so often the case in this league, leaving points off the board ultimately kills. 13-0 instead of 21-0 kept the Falcons in the game, and Matt Ryan then proceeded to put together what might well have been the best game of his career as the Falcons rallied. Ryan flashed more mobility than I’ve seen from him in the past and his ability to avoid getting sacked turned out to be huge.
More OT in Chicago as the Bills upset the Bears. The home team won the overall yardage battle, but Buffalo was the better football team. The Bills dominated on the ground, threw effectively when they needed to and were far more opportunistic. The Bears defense is going to be a problem again this season, and their safeties are just plain lousy.
The Titans have new schemes on both offense and defense, and the early returns are a rousing success. Tennessee basically beat the snot out of the Chiefs, which is no small feat at Arrowhead. This was a rout for all intents and purposes. The Titans now have a chance to get off to a great start with Dallas heading to Nashville next week. The Chiefs are going to be in for along season if QB Alex Smith continues his less than stellar play.
The Vikings obliterated the Rams, so it’s fair to say that some really shaky decision making by St. Louis coach Jeff Fisher didn’t matter. In this game, that’s a fact. But Fisher made some poor risk vs. reward maneuvers while this was still a game, and eliminated any shot hit team had in the process. On the flip side, high praise to the Vikings staff. They figured out early that the Rams were keying everything on Adrian Peterson, so Minnesota instead featured electrifying Cordarelle Patterson. Life in the rugged NFC West is looking to be very tough for what could be a really punchless Rams squad.
Bill Belichick has some work to do with the Patriots. The OL didn’t give Tom Brady any protection and the decision not to run much, even when ahead, tells me Belichick is worried about that unit. Big win for the Dolphins, rallying smartly from a 20-10 halftime deficit and dominating the rest of the way.
402-158 in yards, including 212-25 on the ground. When you see lopsided stats like that, it’s generally a blowout. Leave it to the Jets to find a way not to cover in their win against Oakland. The Raiders got a short field TD off a turnover and a garbage time drive for their points and looked seriously overmatched throughout. This was a game the Jets should have won in a romp. Their lack of efficiency will undoubtedly get them beat against more talented opposition.
The Steelers beat up the Browns for 30 minutes and then apparently forgot that the game lasts 60 minutes. I thought this was absolutely an ease up job by the Steelers, and that almost got them beat. Credit to Pittsburgh for finding a way to put together a drive for the late win, but Mike Tomlin needs to convince his guys that games are not clinched with one good half of football. Tough spread beat for Steelers backer.
I really thought the Bengals were going to absorb another defeat at Baltimore when they settled for five FG’s and no TD’s and then eventually lost the lead to the Ravens. AJ Green saved the day with a long catch and run for the winning TD, and Cincy gets a big mental boost with the win against a rival that has owned them at this site. I’m not very high on the Ravens this season. While they made a nice comeback following some good red zone stops that limited the Bengals to threes rather then sevens, my take on the Ravens definitely didn’t get altered.
Not a whole lot of offense between the Redskins and Texans. A blocked punt TD by Houston was the biggest play of the game. Not the desired debut for Jadeveon Clowney, who hurt his knee and will be out of action for an indeterminate amount of time. I thought the Redskins could have won this game, but they lost the third down conversion battle badly and had the huge special teams gaffe as well.
I’m not sure what to make of the 49ers win at Dallas. The Cowboys were beyond inept early and the 49ers were able to coast after amassing a 28-3 halftime lead. If I’m Jim Harbaugh, I’m not thrilled with the coast job past halftime. This team seemed to lack killer instinct last year and that issue is quite possibly yet to be resolved. Dallas is in dire straits and is clearly a bottom five team, at least as far as right now is concerned.
Derek Anderson stepped in for injured Cam Newton and played a terrific game as the Panthers ruined Lovie Smith’s debut with the Bucs. I thought Doug Martin was thoroughly awful for Tampa Bay. Nine carries for nine yards, and he sure didn’t make up for that with his pass blocking. Predictions of doom and gloom for Carolina appear to be premature. This team appeared to have chip on its shoulder and while the stats weren’t lopsided, the Panthers were the superior team for most of this game.
The Broncos looked like they might hang 50 on the Colts. Instead, Denver came perilously close to blowing a huge lead. Props to the Denver defense for what turned out to be two vital red zone stops. Indianapolis lost this game, but should return home with loads of confidence following their strong rally. The Broncos might have relaxed with the big lead, so this could also be a lesson learned for them.