NFL Betting News and Notes Week 3

NFL Gambling Preview: Philadelphia at Arizona
By Marty Otto
Sportsmemo.com

Philadelphia at Arizona

The Arizona Cardinals shocked the world with their win over Tom Brady and the Patriots last week. But they didn’t just win; frankly I thought their defense dominated the game and I for one saw nothing fluky about the victory. Now there are plenty of interesting stats that have been pointed out in this space before and some of them suggest the Cards have been lucky in their success. I can’t deny the stats but I can say having watched them last week that they at least looked the part of a solid team.

They were consistently getting Brady off his spot, they were forcing bad throws and getting sacks, they stuffed the run and their corners were in tight coverage all day. Special teams chipped in nicely with a blocked punt and Patrick Peterson is a deadly return man. While the offense is mediocre I’m not sure they need to be much better to have a shot at success if they can continue to outperform opponents in the other two facets of the game. So, can they score another upset here at home against the Eagles?

There are a few factors that might help them get another big “W” this week. First and foremost the opposition from Philly looks like it could be without one of its top playmakers as wide receiver Jeremy Maclin is dealing with a hip injury and is questionable to play. Maclin provides the Eagles with a bigger target than speedy (and diminutive) Desean Jackson. His absence would allow the Cards to roll coverage toward Jackson, eliminating big play potential over the top. It also allows the Cards to focus a little more attention on tight end Brent Celek as those are basically the only two options Michael Vick looks comfortable with outside of running back LeSean McCoy.

The second factor is the Eagles offensive line. Last week Philadelphia lost its starting center for the remainder of the season as Jason Kelce tore knee ligaments. They also lost starting tackle King Dunlap to a hamstring injury. If you watched any of the game last week you saw Vick under constant pressure. He was battered and bruised and planted into the ground and that leads to turnovers, which we should point out that Philly has nine of in the first two games!

With a patchwork offensive line and a diminished arsenal of skill players it might be time for Philly to muddy it up and stick to a more conservative offensive approach this week. And that would play right into Arizona’s hands as the Cardinals seem to thrive in these close, ugly, contests.

As long as Arizona’s QB (whether it’s Skelton or Kolb) can take care of the football and as long as they can get at least a little help from the running game I think the Cards defense and special teams can put them in position to keep this game close, if not pull another SU win out of their collective hat.

Turnover Tendencies
By ASAWins.com

We're just two weeks into the NFL season but wanted to point out a significant statistic relevant to the point spread. It's an 'after the fact' stat but the results are truly remarkable. If you take the time to look you'll find that teams that win the turnover battle are a ridiculous 23-2 (92%) against the spread this season.

This is something we've followed for years and the point-spread numbers for teams that win the turnover battle are staggering. It goes to show the fine line between winning and losing in the NFL and because of that, how important it is to protect the football.

Through two full weeks of the season there are six teams in the NFL that are +1.5 or better in turnover margin per game.

Those teams are Atlanta, Washington, Houston, Baltimore, New England and Tampa Bay who have a combined spread record of 10-2 ATS.

Teams that have a negative or -1.5 average turnover margin per game this season are just 3-11 ATS which includes Kansas City, New Orleans, Denver, Miami, Indianapolis, Detroit and Philadelphia.

Teams to keep an eye on as potential 'play against' are the Eagles (0-2 ATS) and Saints (0-2 ATS) who were 31st (Eagles) and 24th (Saints) in turnover margin a season ago.

Conversely, teams such as Atlanta, Baltimore and Houston (all 2-0 ATS this year) were all top 8 in TO margin last year and currently trend as 'play on' teams.

Again, hindsight is 20-20 when it comes to analyzing turnovers and ATS records. It’s obviously very tough if not impossible to handicap turnovers. The best way we can try and forecast turnovers is by analyzing matchups and team’s tendencies when it comes to protecting the ball.

For example a few potential favorable matchups in regards to turnovers this week are…

Houston (-2) at Denver

Houston is +5 in TO margin so far in 2012 & it finished 7th in the NFL in 2011. Denver is -4 in TO margin so far this season and the Broncos finished 27th in TO margin last season.

San Francisco (-7.5) vs. Minnesota

San Fran is just +1 so far this season. But that could be attributed to the fact that they played two strong offenses in Green Bay and Detroit. The 49ers led the NFL in 2011 with a +28 margin. Minnesota is -16 the last three years combined (finished in the bottom half of the NFL in 2010 and 2011).

Tampa Bay (+7.5) vs. Dallas

The Buccaneers have been more aggressive on defense and smarter with the ball on offense this season and that’s led to a +3 turnover margin (finished dead last in the NFL last year with a -16 margin). The Cowboys are -2 so far this season after last week’s debacle at Seattle.

Washington (-3.5) vs. Cincinnati

The Redskins are +5 in TO margin this season as new QB RG3 is a huge upgrade over turnover machines Rex Grossman and John Beck from a year ago (Washington finished -14 in TO margin). Cincinnati finished even in TO margin in 2011 but is already -2. And the defense has looked shaky here in 2012.

Continue to keep an eye on TO margin and certain matchups in the upcoming weeks and you may be able to get an inside edge on ATS winners in the NFL.

NFL: Streaks, Trends, Notes
Sportspic.com

Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals

The surprising Arizona Cardinals off a 20-18 win in New England as double-digit dogs have now won nine-of-eleven (8-3 ATS) regular season games dating back to last season including a win/cover over this Sunday's foe, the Philadelphia Eagles. The betting market still not convinced Kevin Kolb and/or John Skelton can keep the squad rolling have opened the 'Desert Birds' 4 point underdogs vs 'Dirty Birds' off a pair of one-point wins (0-2 ATS) bringing it's mark to 6-0 (4-2 ATS) going back to Wk-14 of the 2011 season. Both teams are in unchartered territory as each finds itself 2-0 for only the second time since 2000 with Cardinals 0-1 SU/ATS going for a 3-0 mark, Eagles 1-0 SU/ATS after opening undefeated the first two games. Ample reason to bet against Eagles with the squad turning the ball over nine times and Vick chucking six interceptions in two games. However, when all was said and done the pivot did rally his team for two come-from behind victories. Eagle backers looking to recoup cash will be feeling good about their chances in Arizona as Eagles enter a smart 8-2 ATS as road favorites vs NFC West opponents while Cardinals head into the 'Battle of the Birds' an ugly 1-8 ATS at home off B-2-B SU/ATS wins.

Kansas City Chiefs at New Orleans Saints

To say things have not gone well for the New Orleans Saints is an understatement. Saints in a 0-2 hole for the first time since 2007 after getting pounded 35-27 by Panthers on Sunday have no reason to panic, 'JUST YET'. Saints return to the Superdome to host inept Kansas City Chiefs also in a 0-2 hole. Saints on a 9-1 SU/ATS stretch at home outscoring visitors by 21.1 points/game should have little trouble vs a Chief squad giving up 37.5 PPG over their first two on 377.5 total yards/game split between 235.0 passing, 142.5 rushing yards/game. Consider laying the points, Saints are 6-2 ATS last eight at home off a road loss as a favorite, K.C. is ridding a 5-15-1 skid off a loss by 17 or more points and on a 0-5 ATS road slide vs an NFC South opponent.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys

How in the world do Cowboys open the campaign spanking the defending Super Bowl champs 24-17 on the road as 3 1/2-point dogs, then get outplayed at Seattle in every aspect of the game losing 27-7 as 3-point road favorite. Which group of up-and-down 'Pokes' shows up in the home opener vs Buccaneers is anyone's guess. One thing for sure, Dallas backers' will be mighty anxious as Cowboys look to buck a trend that has seen the team post a 4-15-1 record against-the-oddsmaker laying points including a cash draining 3-11 ATS mark in Big 'D'. However, if there was a spot for Romo and company to earn respect from backers it's Sunday's home opener vs a Buccaneer squad that can't seem to steer it's ship straight going 2-12 (4-10 ATS) including 0-8 (2-6 ATS) away from Tampa losing by an average 19.8 PPG. Cowboys sinking Tampa's ship in week-15 last season (31-15) marking a fourth straight win/cover in the series get the job done. Lay the points, Romo has had Tampa's number in his three career matchups averaging 300+ yards per game tossing 11 TD's no interceptions.

NFL's Biggest Betting Mismatches: Week 3
By Jason Logan
Covers.com

Each week, we break down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches from Week 3:

New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens (-3, 49.5)

Patriots’ focused defense vs. Ravens’ confused offense

New England pumped up its defense this offseason and so far it’s shown. The Patriots are ranked second in yards allowed and will be extra motivated following the loss to Arizona – which wasn’t the defense's fault. New England is 34-16-1 ATS in its last 51 games coming off a loss.

Baltimore’s no-huddle offense was the talk of the offseason but when the going got tough, the Ravens would still lean on RB Ray Rice. That wasn’t the case versus the Eagles last week. Baltimore passed on six third-and-short and fourth-and-short situations, failing to pick up the first down every time. It finished 4 for 14 on third-down conversions.

Houston Texans at Denver Broncos (+1, 46.5)

Texans’ anti-Peyton defense vs. Rusty Peyton Manning

Want to know why Houston is the solid defensive unit it is today? The Texans were custom made to stop Peyton Manning, who used to be the biggest thorn in their side when he was under center for the division rival Colts. The Texans are tops in defense through two weeks, collecting six sacks and three interceptions.

Manning’s disastrous first quarter versus the Falcons Monday night was the difference. Many believe the former MVP has lost a step following multiple neck surgeries, while Manning himself chalks up those three interceptions to poor decision making. Now, Manning stares down the one defense that knows him better than any in the league.

Detroit Lions at Tennessee Titans (+3.5, 47)

Jim Schwartz’s ego vs. Titans’ front office

The term “No hard feelings” doesn’t really apply to Lions head coach Jim Schwartz. The emotional sideline leader was once the Titans defensive coordinator under Jeff Fisher, but only after Fisher went to bat against some front office types that weren’t all that crazy about Schwartz. While he’ll never admit it, Schwartz is too big of an ego to let stuff like that slide.

Enter the Titans, who could be the worst team in the NFL right now. Tennessee’s defense is in shambles, its QB is hurting and its franchise player is putting the blame for his poor start on everyone but himself. If there ever was a chance to kick a team when they’re down, Week 3 is it.

San Francisco 49ers at Minnesota Vikings (+7, 43)

Niners’ revamped passing game vs. Vikings’ terrible Tampa-2

The Niners are the clear favorites to win the Super Bowl, thanks in part to their new-look down-field attack featuring weapons like Michael Crabtree, Vernon Davis, Randy Moss and Mario Manningham. San Francisco has been relatively conservative given the potency in the pass game, sitting 25th in yards through the air, but Week 3’s matchup may be the best opportunity to kick the tires on that side of the playbook.

Minnesota’s Tampa-2 defense is ranked 12th against the pass, allowing an average of only 221.5 yards through the first two games. Those stats, however, we compiled against second-year QB Blaine Gabbert and rookie Andrew Luck, who exposed the Tampa-2 for big strikes last weekend. The Vikings secondary buckled with the clock ticking down, giving up a 30-yard TD to end the half and allowing Luck to move the chains for a game-winning field goal in the final 23 seconds.

Where The Action Is: NFL Mid-Week Line Moves
By Jason Logan
Covers.com

Sportsbooks have been busy adjusting the odds for Week 3 of the NFL season.

There have been many line moves heading towards the weekend, and we spoke with veteran oddsmaker Jimmy Vaccaro, of William Hill sportsbooks in Nevada, about those changes, the reasons behind them and where he sees the odds landing before kickoff.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys – Open: Dallas -7, Move: Dallas -9

The Cowboys remain a double-faced team, following their big win over the Giants with a lackluster effort in Seattle last Sunday.

Bettors are sticking by Dallas, but Vaccaro says most of that has to do with Tampa Bay’s fourth-quarter collapse to New York in Week 2. He expects some buy-back by sharps on this line but the popularity of the Cowboys, especially on parlay cards, will keep this spread from coming down.

Detroit Lions at Tennessee Titans – Open: Tennessee +3, Move: Tennessee +4

It didn’t take long for this spread to move off the key number and go to Titans +4 with the majority of bets coming in on the Lions. Vaccaro says it wouldn’t have mattered where this line opened at – bettors would be playing against Tennessee following two losses, injuries and team turmoil.

“If it opened at +4 it would have went to +5. If it goes to +6 by Sunday, people will still give the points,” Vaccaro told Covers. “I put Tennessee right up with Jacksonville and Cleveland. In fact, I think Cleveland is a much better team than them.”

Cincinnati Bengals at Washington Redskins – Open: -4, Move: -3

Another line move involving a key number, early bettors have faith in the Bengals versus Robert Griffin III and the Redskins. Vaccaro says the Bengals are underrated and believed the opening spread was too large to begin with.

“I can understand the move,” he says. “This one won’t go back to four, even though about 60 percent of the bets are going to be on the Redskins come Sunday.”

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins – Open: Miami +3, Move: Miami +1

These AFC East rivals have looked very different in their first two games of the season. Miami is coming off a one-sided win over Oakland and early bets have grabbed the Dolphins as field-goal dogs at home. Vaccaro says this could be one of the biggest decisions on Sunday’s schedule.

“I’ll be rooting my little Italian butt off for the Dolphins come Sunday morning,” he laughs. “Seven out of every 10 bets are going to be on the Jets. It’s a perfect scenario to bet New York for those public players.”

Houston Texans at Denver Broncos – Open: Pick, Move: Denver +2.5

Denver didn’t look very sharp to start Monday Night Football, especially Peyton Manning. There are plenty of questions surrounding his arm strength but Vaccaro says it is a growing confidence in Houston that has this line swinging the other way.

“There was a lot of money in Weeks 1 and 2 on Houston to win the Super Bowl. This is a tell that maybe this team is finally at a spot where so many people thought they would be or could be the past few years.”

Week 3 NFL Tips
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

Heading into Week 3 of the NFL, a handful of teams are listed as road favorites, even though these chalky squads haven't been successful this season. Through two weeks, teams laying points on the highway own a 3-7 ATS record, as the Texans were the lone team to win and cover last week at Jacksonville. In this week's early games, four clubs are laying the wood, even though only one of them is undefeated.

49ers (-7, 43½) at Vikings

San Francisco enters the Twin Cities at 2-0 for just the third time since 2000, as the 49ers look to keep backers happy with another win. Jim Harbaugh's club followed up an impressive road triumph at Green Bay in the season opener by slowing the Lions in a 27-19 victory as seven-point home favorites. This is the first of two games for San Francisco off the West Coast, as the Niners head to New Jersey to take on the Jets next week.

Since Harbaugh's arrival last season, San Francisco owns a 14-5-1 ATS record, but three of those losses have come in the role of a road favorite. The Vikings are listed as an underdog for the first time after failing to cover against the Jaguars and Colts as short 'chalk.' Minnesota's first two games have been decided by three points, including a 23-20 setback at Indianapolis, as the Vikings overcame a 20-6 deficit to tie the game before allowing a 53-yard field goal to Adam Vinatieri in the final seconds.

The Vikings have put together a solid 6-3-1 ATS record since 2011 as an underdog, but Minnesota is 0-5 ATS in its last five games at Mall of America Field. The Niners have failed to cover in each of their last three away games off a home win, but all three ATS losses came to division opponents. Minnesota rallied past San Francisco the last time these met in 2009, but the Niners cashed as seven-point road 'dogs in a 27-24 defeat.

Lions (-3½, 47) at Titans

Tennessee has compiled a pair of mediocre efforts in its first two losses to New England and San Diego, as the Titans return home to battle the Lions. Three years removed from capturing the league's rushing title, Titans' running back Chris Johnson has stumbled out of the gate with 21 yards on 19 carries in two defeats. Now, Tennessee has to slow down Detroit's explosive offense, which was silenced at San Francisco.

The Lions kicked four field goals before a late touchdown pass by Matthew Stafford gave a Detroit a more respectable result in an eight-point defeat. Jim Schwartz's team has failed to cover in two games after needing a rally in the final seconds to stun the Rams in the season opener, 27-23 as nine-point favorites. Detroit is just 3-7 ATS the last 10 games away from Ford Field, including a 1-3 ATS mark last season as road 'chalk.'

Despite Kenny Britt's return to the lineup at San Diego, Tennessee mustered 212 yards of offense in a 38-10 loss as 6 ½-point 'dogs, while the defense allowed five offensive touchdowns to the Chargers. The Titans own a 3-6 ATS record at home under Mike Munchak, while splitting a pair of games as an underdog against the Saints and Ravens.

Jets (-2½, 40) at Dolphins

These two old AFC East rivals enter Sunday's contest with a 1-1 record, as both have won at home and lost on the road through two weeks. New York's offense couldn't put together an encore performance after a 48-point effort in a Week 1 blowout of Buffalo (granted the Jets scored two non-offensive touchdowns), as the Jets were held to 10 points in a Week 2 loss at Pittsburgh. The Dolphins put together probably the biggest offensive turnaround from Week 1 to Week 2 after an impressive showing against the Raiders.

Reggie Bush rushed for 172 yards and two touchdowns, erasing a small halftime deficit en route to a 35-13 victory for the Dolphins as one-point underdogs. Miami improved to 5-1 the last six games at Sun Life Stadium, which includes a 19-17 win over the Jets to conclude last season. The Dolphins have done well against the Jets under Rex Ryan, as Miami is 4-2 SU/ATS in the series since 2009. Also, Miami is a solid 10-2 ATS the previous 12 games overall since last October.

Mark Sanchez completed just 10 passes against the Steelers, one week after tossing three touchdown passes in the season opener against the Bills. The Jets have failed to cover seven of their last nine road games, but New York is a profitable 7-4 ATS in Ryan's tenure. Following a road loss hasn't been a good spot to back New York under Ryan, as the Jets are 3-7 ATS, including a 1-4 ATS mark last season.

Bills (-3, 44) at Browns

Buffalo rebounded nicely from an opening week whipping at the Jets by doling out a 35-17 beatdown of the Chiefs last Sunday in their home opener. The Bills are listed as road favorites for just the second time in Chan Gailey's tenure, as Buffalo lost in this role at Cincinnati, 23-20, as three-point 'chalk.' The next test for the Bills is a winless Browns' team that has actually been a tremendous pointspread play since last season.

Cleveland may not win many games, but Pat Shurmur is keeping his team motivated, as the Browns are 7-1-1 ATS the last nine contests dating back to last November. The Browns cashed in the one-point opening week loss to the Eagles as nine-point home 'dogs, while pushing in last week's 27-20 setback at Cincinnati as seven-point underdogs. However, the Browns have had problems scoring at home since Shurmur took over as head coach last season by scoring 17 points or less in nine consecutive home contests ('under' is 6-3).

The Bills have cashed the 'over' in five straight regular season games since Week 15 of last season, but Buffalo is 0-8 SU the last eight road contests. This is a critical game for the Bills, who take on the Patriots at home next week, followed by a pair of trips to the West Coast to battle the 49ers and Cardinals.

NFL Gambling Preview: Atlanta at San Diego
By Teddy Covers
Sportsmemo.com

Atlanta at San Diego

It’s a tough spot for the road underdog as they travel West on a short week after hanging on to beat the Broncos on Monday Night Football. However, the spot is certainly factored into this pointspread. My power ratings show the Falcons as two points better than the Chargers right now, which should equate to a pointspread of San Diego -1 at Qualcomm Stadium – there’s line value with the road dog, if they can overcome the tough circumstances.

The Chargers haven’t opened a season with a 3-0 SU mark since Marty Schottenheimer’s first year as their head coach back in 2002. Under Norv Turner, this team has consistently underachieved coming out of the gate. Only once in his previous five years on the job have the Chargers gone better than 2-3 SU in their first five games.

Of course, the Chargers 2-0 start this year is largely schedule related. They’ve beaten the Raiders and Titans, two teams that rank in the bottom quartile of the league, regardless of whose power ratings you trust. In those two wins, San Diego has struggled to run the football and despite Philip Rivers impressive looking numbers, he’s been every bit as lucky as he’s been good, consistently throwing the ball up for grabs.

Atlanta hasn’t run the football well either, and leading rusher Michael Turner could face a pre-game suspension for his DUI arrest following their win over Denver on Monday. But this Falcons passing game is clicking on all cylinders in Dirk Koetter’s new offense. QB Matt Ryan leads the NFL with a 117.6 QB rating, creating explosive plays with his trio of WR weapons Roddy White, Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez. We’ll find out very quickly if the Chargers solid defensive numbers through their first two games are real or fraudulent thanks to weak opposition. Frankly, I expect the latter…

NFL Gambling Preview: Houston at Denver
By Erin Rynning
Sportsmemo.com

Houston at Denver

The exhibition season is officially over for the Texans after playing “warm-up” games against Miami and Jacksonville. You can only play who’s on your schedule, and the Texans are now 2-0, but the test is much tougher this week against Denver. The Texans pride themselves on their tremendous condition as a team, and with the Broncos off a Monday night affair, the Mile High conditions should be neutralized. While holding the Jaguars to a franchise best 117 total yards last week, the Texans will feature a similar game plan in trying to control the clock. The Texans ran the ball 48 times last week, which included over 43 minutes of possession time. They are as complete and well-rounded as any team in the NFL.

This will serve as a fascinating match-up with Denver quarterback Peyton Manning versus Texans defensive coordinator Wade Philips. Philips has featured success in the past against Manning, and he’ll certainly take a page from Falcons defensive coordinator Mike Nolan’s plan from Monday night. The Broncos and Manning played a horrible first quarter on Monday eventually falling behind 20-0. They made it a game losing 27-21 despite recording four turnovers. The Broncos should be able to get better on both sides of the ball as the season moves forward. From a side perspective this is a tough game to call with the Texans showing they’re as good as anybody, but the Broncos are historically “live” anytime they are inserted as a home underdog. We’ll lean UNDER the total as both teams try to play keep away in a tight football game.

NFL Betting Preview: New England at Baltimore
By Alf Musketa
Sportsmemo.com

New England at Baltimore

First of all do not buy into the scuttlebutt that wide reciever Wes Welker is going to be traded, that he is not targeted or getting snaps because the Patriots do not want to give him a long term contract, or that Bill Belichick is making him pay for his holdout. He is simply not in football shape due to the holdout and he will progress with better conditioning. Next, the Patriots came out flat versus Arizona. They were overconfident and the play calling was brutal. Belichick off a loss has been tough to beat. Belichick and Tom Brady are a dangerous combination 11-1 SU and ATS off a loss and getting points. A huge injury is tight end Aaron Hernandez who is out 3-6 weeks with ankle damage and now we can expect to see Rob Gronkowski getting double coverage.

I'm a big believer in playoff revenge and Baltimore certainly has something to avenge here after losing the AFC Championship via a missed field goal by kicker Billy Cundiff with time running out. Another reason I think the Ravens may get the win on Sunday night is that the Patriots cannot use old film of Baltimore to game plan against their offense. As you know they are running a new no-huddle spread offense this season something they should have been implementing a couple of years ago with the type of quarterback that they drafted in Joe Flacco.

Both teams do one thing very well and that is stop the run on defense. With replacement refs calling plenty of pass interference penalties, it's difficult for any handicapper to have faith in betting totals under, thus we find the over as the only possible play. If the total comes down to 48 or less we'll have a wager on the over.

NFL Week 3 Preview

Rams (1-1) @ Bears (1-1) — Once upon a time, Jeff Fisher wore #48 as a DB for Chicago, playing under DC Buddy Ryan; now his Rams come to Chicago after splitting pair of nail-biters. NFC West teams are 6-0 vs spread in non-divisional games, 5-0 as underdogs; two St Louis games this year were decided by total of 7 points. Bears had three extra days to prepare since losing 23-13 at Lambeau, when Cutler was sacked seven times. Chicago is 10-15-1 vs spread in last 26 games as a home favorite. Since ’06, formerly downtrodden Rams are actually 13-8-1 vs spread in game following a win. Chicago won last three series games by average score of 29-13, but last meeting was in ’09. NFC North teams are 1-5 vs spread in non-divisional games.

Buccaneers (1-1) @ Cowboys (1-1) — Dallas won 12 of 15 series games, taking last four by average score of 29-14; Bucs lost nine of ten visits here, with only win in ’01. Cowboys are 2-5 vs spread last seven home openers, with four of last five going over. Dallas is 1-3 vs spread when home opener is after Week 2, with three of those four games decided by 1 or 2 points- they're 3-11 vs spread as home favorite last two years. Tampa Bay outscored first two foes 37-13 in first half, were outscored 41-13 in second; they gave up 604 total yards in Swamp last week, including 234 passing yards in 4th quarter alone. Bucs have picked off five passes already (+3 turnover margin), but they're just 7-24 on third down converions. Since ’09, Tampa Bay is 14-9-1 as road underdogs, but they’re also 12-21-2 vs spread in game following their last 35 losses. NFC East non-divisional favorites are 0-5 vs spread this season.

49ers (2-0) @ Vikings (1-1) — League-wide, non-divisional home underdogs are 5-2 vs spread to start this season. 49ers have been impressive early on, spanking Pack in Lambeau, beating Lions 27-19; now they go for third straight NFC North scalp, but they’ve lost last four visits to Twin Cities, in series where home side won eight of last nine games. Niners are 10-2 vs spread as favorites under Harbaugh; they’ve had a TD drive of less than 30 yards in both games this season. Since ’06, Minnesota is 3-10-1 vs spread as home underdogs. Hard to tell about Vikings, who rallied from behind in last 2:00 to tie first two games, but trailing Jags/Colts in last 2:00 is also red flag, especially considering 49ers are now among NFL’s elite, having won 15 of 18 in regular season under Harbaugh.

Lions (1-1) @ Titans (0-2) — Tennessee coach Munchak was HOF offensive lineman, but his Titans have run ball 26 times for only 58 yards in first two games, as defenses aren‘t respecting young QB Locker. Detroit coach Schwartz was Titan assistant under Jeff Fisher for xx years; he returns here with Lion squad that over last decade is 1-4-2 vs spread as road favorite (only cover at Denver LY); they’re 12-14-2 vs spread under Schwartz, in game following a loss. Tennessee lost first two games 34-13/38-10, getting outgained by 150+ yards/game. Since ’06, Titans are 22-17 vs spread in game following a loss, 9-5 as home underdogs- they’re 1-2 as home dogs under Munchak. Tennessee won last three series games by average score of 33-18, winning 24-19 in Lions’ only visit here (’04).

Bengals (1-1) @ Redskins (1-1) — Home debut for young QB Griffin after pair of impressive displays on road; Washington has run ball for 153-176 yards, created six turnovers (+5 TO margin) and scored seven TDs on 23 drives, scoring 20+ points in three of four halves, but since 2006, Redskins are 5-15-1 vs spread as home favorite, failing to cover last eight tries (last cover as HF was Week 3 of ’08 vs Arizona). Since ’07, Skins are 5-12-3 vs spread when facing an AFC squad. Since 2008, Bengals are 10-5-1 vs spread when facing an NFC team. Cincy allowed 120+ rushing yards, 300+ passing yards in each of first two games—not good. Home side won side of last eight series games, with Bengals losing three of last four visits here. This is just third series meeting in last 21 years. Redskins had punt blocked in each of first two games, which doesn’t happen much.

Jets (1-1) @ Dolphins (1-1) — Vast improvement between Games 1-2 for Fish, but they were also playing Oakland squad making cross country flight after playing Monday night home game. Big question is whether Dolphin OL can open more holes for Bush, who shredded Raider defense for 179 yards last week. Miami won five of last seven series games, with road team winning six of last nine; average total in last three series games is 27.3. Jets had three TD drives of less than 55 yards in opening win, then completed just 10-27 passes in loss at Pittsburgh; they’re 7-4 as road favorites under Ryan, 11-7 in games where spread is 3 or less points, but 8-11 vs spread off a loss. Home teams won seven of first 10 divisional games this season (home dogs 3-2). Since 2007, Miami still just 7-12 as a home underdog.

Chiefs (0-2) @ Saints (0-2) — NFC teams won seven of first eight games with AFC. Both teams desperate for W after horrific starts (both allowed 40-35 points in first two games); two worst pass defenses in league, with KC allowing 9.1/9.4 per pass attempt in first two games, Saints 11.5/11.6 in Spagnuolo’s first two games as DC. Chiefs covered nine of last ten games vs NFC teams; since ’07, they’re 21-15-1 as road underdogs. NO also allowed 153-219 rushing yards in first two games, allowing eight TD’s, four FG tries on 22 drives; they’ve allowed seven TD’s, two FGs on 10 red zone drives, and they lost field position by 7-9 yards. Chiefs are 4-2 in Crescent City, with Super Bowl IV win over Vikings (@ Tulane Stadium) franchise’s greatest moment, but they’re 4-5 overall vs Saints, losing last two meetings.

Bills (1-1) @ Browns (0-2) — Hard to gauge Bills after splitting pair of one-sided games; since 2004, Buffalo is 7-4 vs spread as a road favorite- they’re 3-6-1 as a favorite under Gailey. Bills ran ball for 195-201 yards in first two games, and scored eight TDs without trying FG, positive signs, but they’ve lost field position battle by 11-6 yards, and are 4-10-3 vs spread in last 17 games where spread was 3 or less points. Cleveland led Eagles in last 2:00 of home opener but allowed late TD and lost by point; rookie QB Weeden improved last week in his second start- they’re 3-9-3 vs spread in last dozen games where spread was 3 or less. Browns are 3-2 in last five series games; Buffalo lost 8-0 in last visit here, five years ago. Bills have a TD drive of less than 50 yards in both games, a sign defense/special teams are helping.

Jaguars (0-2) @ Colts (1-1) — Jags lost 10 of last 11 road games; they led late at Minnesota in opener, but 55-yard FG sent them to OT, where they lost. Jax is 15-22 vs spread in game following their last 37 losses. Indy got first win of Luck era last week, scoring late to beat same Viking squad that had beaten Jags in opener; they’ve been outscored 31-13 in second half of their two games. Colts are 3-6-1 in last ten games where spread was 3 or less points; they’re 3-6 SU at home in post-Manning era. Home teams are 7-3 vs spread in divisional games so far this season, home favorites 4-1. Jax won three of last four series games, splitting last four visits here; QB Gabbert (hamstring) was replaced by former Dolphin Henne last week, not sure who gets nod here. I wouldn’t consider this game a great investment opportunity.

Eagles (2-0) @ Cardinals (2-0) — Arizona won its last nine games that were decided by less than 7 points; they’ve allowed only two TDs, three FGs on opponents’ seven red zone drives this year. Philly gained 942 yards in two games, outgaining foes by 246-162, but turned ball over nine times and had to score in last 2:00 to win both games by a point; now they visit old friend Kevin Kolb, who has Redbirds at 2-0 after defense stopped opponents in red zone in last 2:00 of both games; they’ve got seven sacks in two games, holding Brady to 5.9 yards/pass attempt last week, but harder to sack mobile Vick, who converted 15 of 34 3rd down plays this year. Arizona won three of last four series games; Eagles lost last two visits here, by 6-7 points. NFC West teams are 6-0 vs spread in non-divisional games, NFC East squads are 1-5.

Falcons (2-0) @ Chargers (2-0) — Short week and cross country trip for Atlanta after hanging on to beat Denver Monday night, for 16th cover in last 22 tries vs AFC squads; this is their third straight AFC West foe to start season. Falcons won five in row and seven of eight vs Chargers, with only loss in ’88- they’ve won all five of their visits to Qualcomm, but San Diego defense appears improved, allowing only 83 rushing yards on 30 carries in first two games- they haven’t allowed first half TD yet. Atlanta has six takeaways (+5) in two games, but Bolts have only one turnover (+1) so far this year. Over last four years, Chargers are 6-9-1 vs spread in NFC games. Under Mike Smith, Falcons are 17-8-1 vs spread in games where spread is 3 or less points. NFC teams won seven of first eight games vs AFC opponents.

Texans (2-0) @ Broncos (1-1) — Short week for Denver after late comeback in Atlanta ended in 27-21 loss; they trailed both games at half, but outscored opponents 38-16 in second half. Homecoming of sorts for Kubiak, who backed up Elway here and was assistant for Shanahan; DC Phillips is also a former Denver coach. Houston appeared dominant in first two games, but they beat two of worst teams in Miami/Jax, while Denver was splitting with Steelers/ Falcons, two of better teams. Big jump in class for Texan defense, facing Manning after stopping Taneyhill/Gabbert in first two games. Fox is 7-10-1 in last 18 games where spread was 3 or less points; Houston won all five of their games like that LY. Home side won all three series games, with Texans losing 24-23 (’10)/31-13 (’04) in two visits here.

Steelers (1-1) @ Raiders (0-2) — Oakland got ball run down their throats in Miami last week, giving up 263 yards on ground (6.2 yards/carry), but to be fair, that was tough scheduling spot, with cross country trip after Monday night game. Raiders have 37 rushes for 68 yards in first two games, with 649 passing yards; they’ve got to have better balance than that. Steelers were supposed to run ball more/better with Haley as new OC, but in their first two games, they’ve run ball 54 times for 141 yards (2.6 ypc) albeit against Denver/ Jets, two playoff-type teams. Since ’04, Raiders are just 13-22-1 as home underdog; Steelers are 10-16-1 as road favorites under Tomlin. Home side won four of last five series games; Pitt lost six of last nine visits here, but this is their first visit in six years.

Patriots (1-1) @ Ravens (1-1) — New England won seven of last eight series games, winning last two by 23-20 scores, including bitter loss in LY’s playoffs, when Ravens missed tying FG at end, after they dropped winning TD pass in end zone; Patriots won both visits here 46-38/27-24- remember Belichick grew up near hear here—his dad was assistant coach at Annapolis. Both sides lost last week; Ravens lost 24-23 in Philly despite four takeaways, three in their red zone, while Gostkowski missed 42-yard FG at gun in Patriots’ shocking 20-18 home loss to Arizona. Ankle injury to star TE Hernandez hurts NE offense; they re-signed Branch/Winslow during week. Curious to see if Welker is utilized more, or if he in on way out. Since 2008, Ravens are 18-10-1 as home favorites. Patriots covered 21 of last 28 games that followed a loss.

Packers (1-1) @ Seahawks (1-1) — Seattle gave Packers’ backup QB Flynn $13M last winter, but he is still #2 QB behind rookie Wilson; he’ll be valuable here, since he knows every aspect of Packer offense. Curious if Green Bay used their four extra days of prep time to change signals. Seahawks got huge jump in home opener with big special teams plays, recovering fumble on opening kickoff and blocking punt for TD, grabbing quick 10-0 lead, then running ball for 182 yards to wear Cowboys down. Green Bay averaged 5.9/5.7 yards/pass attempt in first two games; Seahawks held first two opponents under 300 total yards. Seattle is 8-5 as home underdog under Carroll; since ’03, they’re 12-8 as home dog. Green Bay won six of last seven series games, winning 48-10 in last meeting in ‘09; they’ve split four visits here.

Armadillosports.com

NFL Poolies Betting Cheat Sheet: Week 3
By Covers.com

Want to handicap Sunday's NFL action but don't have time to research every game? Check out our NFL poolies cheat sheet for all your football wagering needs. We give you quick-hitting notes on all of Week 3's action.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys (-9, 46.5)

Cowboys QB Tony Romo loves playing against the Bucs. Romo has passer ratings of 148.9, 140.6 and 133.9 in three career games against Tampa Bay with 11 TD passes. The Bucs defense was shredded by Eli Manning last week, giving up 512 yards through the air. The favorite is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.

St. Louis Rams at Chicago Bears (-9, 43.5)

Bears QB Jay Cutler was sacked seven times against Green Bay last week, causing him to lash out at left tackle J’Marcus Webb. To make matters worse, Cutler may not have RB Matt Forte (ankle) at his disposal on Sunday. Three-time Pro Bowl RB Steven Jackson (groin) is “day-to-day,” according to Rams coach Jeff Fisher and will be a game-time decision. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.

San Francisco 49ers at Minnesota Vikings (6.5, 43)

San Francisco effectively shut down 2011 NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers in Week 1, then Matthew Stafford and the high-powered Lions in Week 2. The Niners can go 3-0 to begin a season or the first time since 1998 if they can find a way to contain RB Adrian Peterson, who has failed to reach the 100-yard plateau in each of his last seven games, one shy of a career high. The Vikings are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.

Detroit Lions at Tennessee Titans (3.5, 47)

The Titans have been outscored 72-23 in dropping their first two games. RB Chris Johnson, who rushed for over 2,000 yards in 2009 has only 21 yards on 19 carries. The Lions could get a boost at RB on Sunday with the return of Mikel Leshoure. The 2011 second-round draft pick was suspended for the first two games of the season after violating the NFL’s substance-abuse policy. The over is 3-0-1 in Detroit’s last four games overall.

Cincinnati Bengals at Washington Redskins (-3, 48.5)

Washington QB Robert Griffin III has impressed in his two games, throwing for 526 yards and picking up five TDs. Washington dropped its final six home games last season, but has won five straight home openers. The Cincinnati defense has allowed an average of 434.5 yards to rank 30th in the league - a far cry from the 316.3 per game it surrendered last season. The Bengals are 0-3-2 ATS in their last five road games.

Kansas City Chiefs at New Orleans Saints (-9, 53)

The Saints' 75 points allowed are tied - with Kansas City - for the highest total through two weeks. New Orleans is last in the league in overall defense at 461.0 yards per game and rushing defense. The Saints have played over the total in seven games dating back to last season and now host the Chiefs, who boast the fifth best rushing attack in the league (151 yards per game).

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (1, 40)

Dolphins RB Reggie Bush has averaged 126.7 rushing yards in his last six games - the most of any player since Week 13 of 2011. Miami has won two straight and five of its last six home games heading into its contest Sunday against New York. Jets QB Mark Sanchez has averaged 219.5 passing yards with nine TDs and four interceptions while going 2-4 versus Miami in his career. The underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.

Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns (3, 44.5)

Bills RB C.J. Spiller leads the NFL with 292 rushing yards and 364 yards from scrimmage after running for 123 and two scores Sunday against the Chiefs. Buffalo has gone over the total in six straight September games and faces a Cleveland squad that’s 5-0-1 ATS in its last six games overall.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-3, 41.5)

Jaguars QB Blaine Gabbert just plain stunk last week against Houston, finishing with 53 yards passing - his fewest as a starter. Gabbert suffered a glute injury in the contest, but he’s expected to suit up in Week 3. That's good news for the Colts, who have played under the total in their last six home games.

Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals (3.5, 43)

The Cardinals defense is a major reason why they’re 2-0 and pulled off a major upset over the Patriots last week. The unit has only allowed two touchdowns and 3.4 yards per carry so far this season. The Eagles are the first team in NFL history to begin with a pair of one-point victories despite committing nine turnovers, which is three more than any other team. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.

Atlanta Falcons at San Diego Chargers (-3, 47.5)

Falcons QB Matt Ryan is the league's top-rated passer with a rating of 117.6, and he's completed 70.1 percent of his passes for 518 yards and five touchdowns. San Diego’s offense is also rolling with 60 points scored and just one turnover after two games and the defense is allowing a league-low 41.5 rushing yards per game under new defensive coordinator John Pagano. The under is 10-1 in San Diego’s last 11 games as a home favorite.

Houston Texans at Denver Broncos (1, 44.5)

Broncos QB Peyton Manning tossed three interceptions in the first eight minutes of Denver’s Week 2 loss to the Falcons, but was 16-2 against Houston during his time in Indianapolis. His 110.6 QB rating against the Texans is his best against any team he's played more than four times. Houston is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five games overall.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Oakland Raiders (3.5, 44.5)

Steelers RB Rashard Mendenhall (ACL) is on the mend and back at practice. His return could boost a running game that ranks 30th in the league in yardage while averaging just 2.6 per carry. The Raiders are also having trouble on the ground. Oakland is gaining an NFL-worst 2.0 yards per carry and RB Darren McFadden had just 22 yards on 11 attempts in last Sunday's loss at Miami. The underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.

New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens (-3, 49.5)

New England lost tight end Aaron Hernandez to an ankle injury Sunday against the Cardinals. The Patriots signed former Cleveland and Tampa Bay tight end Kellen Winslow on Wednesday to fill in and complement Rob Gronkowski. QB Tom Brady has a 69.1 passer rating in six career games against Baltimore including the postseason - his worst against any opponent. New England is just 1-3-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Baltimore.

Las Vegas Money Moves
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

The biggest game of the week is the New England Patriots at the Baltimore Ravens, a rematch from last year's AFC Championship game the Patriots won, but didn't cover. It also should be the biggest betting game of the week for all the Las Vegas sports books, but if it isn't showing that way on their screens -- in particular, the large straight bet action -- they can thank South Point sports book director Bert Osborne for stealing most of the large money there was to be had on the game.

The ticket volume on the game is still through the roof everywhere in town. The small money, from locals and out-of-town visitors, don't care what the line is. While some of the novices may be confused a bit by all the +3 (-120) or -3 (EVEN) they have been seeing everywhere, the two sides are still generating tons of action, albeit small.

The South Point is the only sports book in Nevada that deals exclusively in flat numbers. You'll never see them ponder over moving off a key number, even if the money says "it's go time." Whenever dealing with the number "3", it can be tricky because 14.2 percent of all NFL games have landed on the number over the last five seasons. Including Thursday's outcome between the Giants and Panthers, only three out of 33 games (9%) have been decided by three points in 2012.

But for Osborne and the South Point, their rewards from the juice on the game -- by getting all the large bets -- far outweighs the negative of getting occasionally sided.

When a player looking for the best number sees money attached to a game, it's essentially telling them that the book is closed, and they move on. This week, all the large money has been waiting for the move at the South Point. The book has gone back and forth from their opening number of Ravens -2½ to Patriots +3 on four occasions this week, each time taking 2½ to 3 times the limit bet on the move. Meanwhile, everyone else in town has essentially been closed and won't see the type of money the South Point has.

Even if the other books join Osborne -- which they will -- at Ravens -2½-flat, the demand is gone because the supply is no longer limited due to Osborne already satisfying their needs early on.

If the game ends with the Ravens winning by "3', well, then I guess every other betting shop was smarter. But I love the gambling mentality of their unique process, because its old school bookmaking mixed in with some new statistical analytics and proven win over the long haul that prove their strategy right.

The last two meeting between these two teams have been identical 23-20 Patriots wins, which shouldn't help ease Osborne's Sunday as he hopes for any results but a Ravens win by three.

Here's a look at some of the other moves this week:

The Bears opened as early 9-point home favorites and Rams money quickly pushed the game to -7½ where most books sit now. The Mirage currently has the Bears -7 (-120).

The Cowboys opened as 7-point home favorites against the Bucs and have been bet up to -8.

The 49ers opened as 6½-point road favorites, the first of seven road favorites this week. The 49ers went up -7 and then Vikings money pushed it back down. I found it odd that large money, knowing the public will drive this game -- 10-to-1 ticket counts on 49ers, would take the +7 on a Tuesday knowing that if they wait until Sunday, they could get +7 ½ or maybe even +8. This leads me to suspect it was a smoke screen with the intention of setting the market at a price, with hopes of other books following on air, and then the 49ers -6 ½ becomes a play for a several times more than they seeded the scheme with. I've been wrong before, but it smells like a perfectly legal scheme sharp money occasionally plays to get their desired number.

The Lions opened early Sunday night as only 1-point road favorites at Tennessee and were quickly bet up -2½. The number now sits at -3½ against a team nobody in Vegas wants to touch.

The Bengals have found support in Robert Griffin III's home opener in Washington, taking +4 and +3½ to where it sits now at 3.

The Cardinals have been getting action as a home 'dog against the Eagles. The line went from +4 down to +3.

The Texans went from being an early line opener of +1 at Denver to being -2½ after the football nation witnessed Manning's lack of arm strength and three interceptions at Atlanta Monday night.

Despite the Raiders looking terrible the first two weeks, sharp money feels good about them this week as the Steelers visit. The Steelers were 6-point early favorites and the number has been pushed all the way down to -3½.

The Seahawks have been getting all kinds of love after their win over the Cowboys last week and ironically, the spread for the Monday night game against the Packers is about the same. The Packers were early 4-point favorites, but have now been bet against, down as low as -3 (-120).