NFL Betting News and Notes Week 4

NFL Betting Preview: Carolina at Atlanta
By Erin Rynning
Sportsmemo.com

Carolina at Atlanta

Carolina (1-2) will have extra time to get ready for this matchup after losing in ugly fashion to the New York Giants, 36-7, last Thursday. Keep in mind; the Panthers were open for a letdown after beating nemesis New Orleans just four days earlier. Carolina’s defense has been especially troubling. The unit was expected to show vast improvement after massive injuries in 2011. This hasn’t been the case as they’ve struggled at times against all three opponents thus far. The offense is facing similar questions, while teammates openly called out quarterback Cam Newton for his sulking ways after the Giants game. It’s only Week 4, but this is a pivotal game for Carolina’s season.

Meanwhile, the Falcons are flying high at 3-0 after a convincing 27-3 victory over the Chargers last week. The 2012 edition has looked as strong as any team in the NFC in the early going. Newbie coordinators Dirk Koetter and Mike Nolan look to be making a very positive impact. In this particular matchup, all signs and momentum clearly point in the direction of the home favorite. However, this is the NFL where parity reigns. Remember, in the Panthers’ last game they were bet up to a three-point favorite against the defending Super Bowl champions, and are now garnering a full seven points. I look for a close, hard fought divisional affair which puts us on the underdog.

NFL Betting News and Notes Week 3
By Ian Cameron
Sportsmemo.com

In this week's article, I examine the group of undefeated and winless teams heading into Week 4.

The 3-0 Club

Houston is the most complete of the remaining undefeated 3-0 squads. Quarterback Matt Schaub went on the road to Denver and outplayed Peyton Manning at his own game as he completed a pair of deep ball touchdown passes in the win. Their running game is strong with the Arian Foster and Ben Tate combo. The defense is good at all levels – DL, LB and in the secondary. J.J. Watt is making a strong case for being the best defensive player in the league. The Texans are simply getting things done on both sides of the football. They are a legitimate 3-0 team and a legitimate Super Bowl contender especially when they play at the level we saw from them on Sunday in Denver.

I do have some questions about the Arizona Cardinals and their 3-0 start but one thing can't be denied – their defense is flying around and making plays all over the field. We saw their ferocious pass rush make life miserable for Philadelphia quarterback Mike Vick. It's a defensive line with tons of playmakers including Calais Campbell, Darnell Dockett and Daryl Washington. Their secondary, led by impressive CB Patrick Peterson, has locked down every passing attack they've faced including Tom Brady and the Patriots in Week 2. The jury is still out if they can continue to thrive with Kevin Kolb or John Skelton under center but teams that play this stout of defense can retain their pointspread value for long periods of time.

The third and final 3-0 team is the Atlanta Falcons. I think it's safe to say they've embraced new coordinator Dirk Koetter’s up-tempo offense. Quarterback Matt Ryan is running this offense like a well-oiled machine. He's already shown great success with big play receivers Julio Jones and Roddy White along with future Hall of Fame tight end Tony Gonzalez. Running back Michael Turner is still a solid and capable weapon in the backfield. Their defense has transformed into a very tough and much improved unit under Mike Nolan's tutelage. On a short week traveling to the West Coast, the defense held Philip Rivers and the Chargers to a minuscule 280 total yards. This is a confident team with a major chip on their shoulder after multiple one-and-done playoff defeats. That's a dangerous combo for any team facing them down the road.

The 0-3 Club

The Cleveland Browns are devoid of talent in all areas. They are breaking in a rookie starting quarterback in Brandon Weeden and a new offensive coordinator in Brad Childress and the transition has been rough. There is a dearth of proven weapons at wide receiver especially now with Mohamed Massaquoi injured. The DL is very weak by NFL standards and was hurt by tackle Phil Taylor’s offseason injury which will keep him out of any action this season. The secondary does boast top-tier cornerback Joe Haden but there’s not much depth behind him. They play in far too tough of a division for this to be anything more than another losing season. This is a Browns team that won’t attract any of my $ anytime soon.

Perhaps the most surprising start by any team this season is New Orleans at 3-0. But maybe it shouldn’t come as that big of a shock. This team is clearly experiencing the lingering effects of the Bounty Scandal with Sean Payton suspended for the year and interim coach Joe Vitt suspended for the first half of the season. Payton’s absence is being felt. The Saints offense, especially quarterback Drew Brees, looks completely out of sync and lacking any sort of rhythm without Payton on the sidelines calling the plays. The defense has failed to grasp new coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s system; gashed through the air and on the ground. The Saints rank dead last in the NFL in total yards and rushing yards allowed. They suffered a brutal loss against Kansas City at home last week, letting a 24-6 lead slip away en route to a 27-24 OT loss. New Orleans is not only 0-3 SU but also 0-3 ATS as the betting markets haven’t yet realized the depths of the struggles. I’m not willing to write off this team quite yet but their prospects of making the playoffs aren’t very good in a competitive AFC South. The Saints badly need a win this week against a Packers team coming off their own demoralizing loss in the much talked about fiasco in Seattle last night.

NFL Betting Preview: San Francisco at New York
By Alf Musketa
Sportsmemo.com

San Francisco at New York Jets

The 49ers did not travel back to San Francisco after their Week 3 Sunday game at Minnesota. Instead they went to Youngstown, Ohio to practice at Stambaugh Stadium near Youngstown State University. 49ers head coach Jim Harbaugh used this tactic last year between Week 3 and 4 after they played at Cincinnati. In that back-to-back spot, the 49ers earned a 24-23 win as 10-point underdogs in Philadelphia. He said the bonding time away from home brought the team closer together, especially for a young team, and he was right as the 49ers went on to notch to a 13-3 regular season.

The Jets will be without Pro Bowl CB Darrelle Revis. "ESPN Stats posted a few stats showing the impact of New York cornerback Darrell Revis (knee, out for the year). Since the start of last season, the Jets have yet to record an interception without Revis on the field (126 plays). With Revis on the field, opposing quarterbacks had a 15-23 TD-to-INT ratio." Kyle Wilson is Revis' replacement and if the 49ers are behind, we expect Wilson to get plenty of throws his way.

Of a loss we expect a supreme effort and a cleaner game from San Francisco after committing three turnovers in Minnesota – two more than their season total. They will have a healthy linebacker in Patrick Willis for this game. A big scare came when Willis left the Vikings game in the fourth quarter with what looked like a serious ankle sprain. Also note that there is a 50% chance of rain at Giants Stadium on Sunday which should favor San Francisco’s stronger run game. Lay the points.

Week 4 NFL Tips
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

A handful of teams that made the playoffs last season have struggled out of the gate, as five postseason squads from 2011 have won just one game or less. The Packers and Saints meet up at Lambeau Field, while the Broncos try to get on track against the Raiders. We’ll start in Buffalo as the Patriots attempt to close out a victory for the first time in three weeks.

Patriots (-4, 52) at Bills

New England has thrown away two games in the last two weeks in losses to Arizona and Baltimore, as the Patriots look to get back to the .500 mark. The Bills are going the other direction by beating the Chiefs and Browns by double-digits each, while seeking their second victory over the Patriots since 2003, as Buffalo beat New England as seven-point home underdogs last season, 34-31.

The Patriots own a 13-6 ATS record since 2006 off a loss, as four of the losses came as a favorite of 9½ points or more. However, New England has owned Buffalo over the last decade with an 18-2 SU and 14-6 ATS record the previous 20 meetings, while the 'over' has cashed in seven of the last 10 matchups. Bill Belichick's defense needs to sure up after allowing 503 yards in last Sunday's loss at Baltimore, but the Pats managed to cover as 2½-point 'dogs in a 31-30 defeat.

The Bills will be without running back C.J. Spiller, who suffered a shoulder injury in last week's 24-14 victory at Cleveland as 2 ½-point favorites. In Chan Gailey's tenure as head coach, Buffalo has put together a dreadful 2-11 SU and 4-9 ATS record against division opponents, including a 1-5 SU/ATS home mark.

Vikings at Lions

Minnesota pulled off one of the biggest upsets of the young season by knocking off San Francisco as seven-point home 'dogs in a dominating 24-13 triumph. The Vikings play their first divisional game of the season against a Lions' squad that couldn't stop the big play in a 44-41 overtime setback at Tennessee, but Detroit did receive good news late in the week.

Matthew Stafford had to exit the game against the Titans with a leg injury, as backup Shaun Hill had to engineer two touchdown drives in the final minute to force overtime. Stafford will return on Sunday at quarterback for a Lions' club that has failed to cover a game in three tries, while posting a 1-5 ATS record against divisional foes last season. This is an important contest for Detroit heading into the bye week, as the Lions head to Philadelphia and Chicago the following two weeks for games that can have important tiebreaking implications for the playoffs.

The Vikings split a pair of games decided by three points each against the Jaguars and Colts in the first two weeks prior to the rout of San Francisco. Now, Minnesota tries to improve on a horrible 1-11 SU and 4-8 ATS record inside the NFC North, as the lone victory came against Detroit in Week 3 of 2010. The Vikings managed a pair of covers against the Lions last season in losses, including a 26-23 overtime setback at Mall of America Field as a 3½-point underdog.

Raiders at Broncos (-6½, 48½)

Denver has gone backwards quickly following an opening week win over Pittsburgh, as the Broncos try to snap a two-game skid against the Raiders. The Broncos' defense has allowed 58 points in losses to the Falcons and Texans (combined 6-0), while Peyton Manning completed half of his passes in a 31-25 defeat to Houston as short home 'dogs. Now, both these AFC West rivals look to stay out of the cellar with a victory at Sports Authority Field.

The Raiders finally found the win column with a late rally against the Steelers as 3½-point home 'dogs thanks to Sebastian Janikowski's field goal in the final minute of a 34-31 victory. Oakland is listed as an underdog once again after losing in the favorite role to San Diego and Miami the first two weeks, while the Silver and Black cashed in six of eight opportunities as a road 'dog last season. The Raiders have won four consecutive games in Denver, as head coach Dennis Allen spent last season as the Broncos' defensive coordinator.

The Broncos are just 3-15-1 ATS as a home favorite since 2008, but that also spans three head coaches (Mike Shanahan, Josh McDaniels, and John Fox). One of those covers came against Pittsburgh in Week 1, improving Fox to 2-6-1 ATS in his last nine games as home 'chalk' since his days in Carolina dating back to 2010. Denver needs to sure up its secondary, which has allowed eight passing touchdowns to Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan, and Matt Schaub through three games.

Saints at Packers (- 7½, 54)

Following Monday's ridiculous outcome in Seattle, the Packers head back to Lambeau Field looking for their second victory of the season against the winless Saints. The Seahawks stole a win after the disputed Hail Mary from Russell Wilson to Golden Tate gave Seattle a disputed 14-12 triumph as three-point home 'dogs, sending Green Bay into this critical contest at below .500. Lost in all the controversy from Monday is the disappointing start from the Saints, just two years removed from winning the Super Bowl.

New Orleans allowed over 500 yards of offense in last Sunday's 27-24 overtime loss to Kansas City, as the Saints squandered a 24-6 lead to the previously winless Chiefs. Not only did the Saints fail to cover as a favorite for the third time this season, but New Orleans heads to Green Bay trying to avenge an opening week setback from last season, a 42-34 defeat as 4½-point 'dogs. The Saints own a 6-6-1 ATS record the last four seasons as a road underdog, as this is the second-highest number New Orleans has received in this span (10-point 'dogs at Carolina in the 2009 season finale).

Green Bay's offensive line allowed eight sacks to Seattle in the first half of Monday's defeat, but the Packers' defense has given up just 24 points the last two weeks. The Packers are 12-6 ATS since 2010 as a home favorite, while putting together an 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS record at Lambeau Field off a loss since 2008. Mike McCarthy's offense is lighting it up at home dating back to 2011 with a 9-2 mark to the 'over.'

NFL Week 4

Patriots (1-2) Bills (2-1) — Since 2004, New England is 30-16-1 vs spread as road favorites- they’re 22-7 vs spread in game following their last 29 losses. Buffalo’s 34-31 upset win here LY was their only win in last 17 series games; New England won 10 of last 12 visits to western NY, with seven of last eight wins by 13+ points, but Pats are under .500 (1-2) for first time in decade after giving up 508 yards in last-second loss at Baltimore. Red flag is NE is 1-2 start, despite being plus in turnovers all three games. Bills have run ball for 195-201-138 yards, so offense has decent balance (178 ypg rushing, 193 passing)- they’re 15-32 on third down and Fitzpatrick has only been sacked once. Favorites are 6-1 vs spread in AFC divisional games so far this season. Since ’05, Bills are 3-8-1 vs spread as a divisional home dog. Average total in last four series games, 60.0.

Vikings (2-1) @ Lions (1-2) — You screw up a game the way Lions did last week (allowed two special teams TD’s, a defensive score, then butchered end-game when center didn’t know he wasn’t supposed to snap ball on 4th down in OT), it tends to have lingering effects. Only Detroit win so far was in last 0:10 vs Rams- they’ve allowed four odd TDs, and half of six TDs the defense gave up came on drives shorter than 60 yards, so they’ve been shooting themselves in foot. Health of Lions’ QB Stafford (hamstring) in question here, although backup Hill is one of league’s better #2 QB’s. Detroit won last three series games by 7-3-6 points, after losing 20 of previous 22 vs Minnesota; Vikings lost last two visits here, 20-13/34-28. Lions are 7-4 vs spread in last 11 games as home favorites. Minnesota is 2-6 in last eight games as divisional road dogs, but they’ve outgained all three opponents this year, as OC Musgrave has worked wonders with young QB Ponder.

Panthers (1-2) @ Falcons (3-0) — Carolina had three extra days to prepare after hideous home loss to Giants; they’ve lost four in row and six of last seven to Atlanta, giving up 31 points in each of last four series games. Panthers lost last four visits here by average score of 29-19, with three of four losses by 14+ points. Carolina scored 10-7 points in two losses, running ball 33 times for 70 yards; they scored 35 in only win, running ball 41 times for 219 yards. Atlanta allowed 152-118-116 rushing yards in its three wins, all vs AFC West opponents. Falcons are 11-2-1 vs spread in last 14 games as divisional home favorite; they’re 25-10-1 as single digit favorites under Smith. Atlanta is already +8 in turnovers this year; they’ve had 20 points at halftime in all three games. Carolina is 3-7 vs spread in last 10 games as divisional road underdog- they’ve allowed 11 plays of 20+ yards in their last two games.

49ers (2-1) @ Jets (2-1) — Niners lost turnover battle in only 4 of Harbaugh’s 21 games as HC, but they’re 1-3 in those games (15-2 in others); loss of defensive ace Revis leaves Gang Green crippled, since four of six TDs offense has scored came on drives of less than 55 yards. Jets rely on defense to set up the offense; they’ve completed just 31-72 (43.1%) of passes last two games, and were lucky to escape Miami (Bush got hurt, Fish led by 10 at one point) with win. NFC West teams are 7-2 vs spread in non-divisional games, 1-1 when favored. AFC East teams are 6-3 vs spread, 2-2 as dogs. Since ’09, Niners are 15-4-2 in game following a loss, 3-0 under Harbaugh. Since ’05, Jets are 9-6 as home dogs, 2-0 under Ryan; they’re 20-15 vs spread in game following their last 35 wins. 49ers won nine of 11 series games, winning five of six played here, with only loss 22-14 in last visit here, back in ’04.

Chargers (2-1) @ Chiefs (1-2) — KC was 0-2 and down 24-6 in Superdome when Charles ran 91 yards for TD and turned their season around; home side won last five games in this series, with Chargers losing 21-14/23-20ot in last two visits here. Chiefs ran ball for 152-160-273 yards in three games (195 ypg) but don’t have TD drive of less than 73 yards, thanks to minus-6 TO ratio (lost four fumbles last two games). Turner is 7-5-1 vs spread in last 13 games where spread was 3 or less points; he’s 11-6-1 vs spread in last 18 AFC West road games. Chiefs allowed 40-35-24 points this season (avg 33 ppg), giving up 11 TDs on 33 drives, despite outgaining all three foes. Last two games, KC has one TD, five FGs on seven drives in red zone, that’s a red flag. Chiefs covered twice in last nine AFC West home games. All three San Diego games this year stayed under total.

Titans (1-2) @ Texans (3-0) — Tennessee won one of wildest games in NFL history last week, scoring TDs on PR-KR-FR, but still needed OT to win, after failing to cover onside kick and allowing two TDs in last 0:18 of regulation. Titans, who used to be Houston Oilers, won five of last seven visits here, but lost first meeting with Texans last three years (20-0/41-7 last two years)- they’ve run ball for just 39 ypg so far, a red flag against terrific Houston offense that is scoring 32.7 ppg. You could make case for Texans as NFL’s #1 team right now; they’ve scored 10 TDs on 36 drives, with only two turnovers. Since ’07, they’re 16-11-1 as home favorites, 6-2 in AFC South games. Titans are 5-9 vs spread in game after their last 14 wins; Locker has been shaky in red zone (one TD, five FGs in six trips). Sometimes tough to pay double digits with team making rare showing on Monday Night Football next year, but locals’ dislike of Titan owner Bud Adams should keep Texans engaged here.

Seahawks (2-1) @ Rams (1-2) — Humungous trap game for Seattle, after beating Cowboys/Packers at home, travelling 2,126 miles on short week to face lowly division rival they’ve beaten 13 of last 14 times, including six of last seven visits here. Seahawks won last three series games by average score of 23-9, but these Rams aren’t those Rams under Fisher- they’re more competitive, more pugnacious (trailed Chicago 13-6 with 9:00 left before fatal pick-6 ended game). Biggest “IF” for Rams is can they block aggressive Seattle front-7 that sacked Rodgers eight times in first half Monday (none in second half). St Louis gained 451 yards in only home game this year, coming back from down 21-6 to beat Redskins. Seattle didn’t turn ball over in either win, and they got gift from referees to win Monday’s game. If Rams’ front can keep Bradford upright, he’ll hit enough plays to spring minor upset here, as two of three Seattle games have come down to last play.

Dolphins (1-2) @ Cardinals (3-0) — Redbirds are 3-0 for first time since ’74, when Ford was President/Coryell was coach; this is first time Arizona is favored this season; since 2009, Cardinals are 4-8-2 vs spread as home favorites- they’re 7-10 vs spread in last 17 games vs AFC squads. Cardinals won last two series games after losing previous eight; seven of 10 games were decided by 13+ points. Miami split its previous two visits to desert. Dolphins have committed to running ball (263-185 rushing yards last two games), to protect rookie QB Taneyhill (just 34-66 passing last two games), but Bush got hurt last week, which cost them against Jets. Fish are 19-36 on 3rd down last two games. Former Indy GM Bill Polian praised their coaching staff, that’s good enough for us. Underdogs are 7-1-1 vs spread in Arizona’s last nine games. All three Cardinal games stayed under the total.

Raiders (1-2) @ Broncos (1-2) — Since 2006, Denver is unspeakably bad 6-24-1 vs spread as home favorites, 1-11-1 in AFC West games, so this is big game for Fox/Manning regime, vs Oakland coach Allen, who was Denver’s DC LY. Huge upgrade at QB for Broncos since then; Denver has six TDs, three FGs in nine red zone trips, and figure to improve as schedule softens (opened with Pitt-Atl-Hst) and Manning gets better chemistry with WRs. Oakland allowed 27-31 points last two games, and has yet to hold opponent under 6.1 yards/pass attempt; they’re 19-13 vs spread as road dog last 4+ years. Raiders won four of last five series games, winning last four visits to Mile High City; seven of last nine series games were decided by 14+ points, with average total in last four, 60.0. Denver outscored opponents 52-26 in second half of games, but they trailed all three at halftime. Oakland is 16-27 vs spread in game after its last 43 losses.

Bengals (2-1) @ Jaguars (1-2) — Cincy OC Gruden threw WR pass for 71-yard score on first play of game last week; aggressive Bengal approach posted 34-38 points last two games, with minimal help (one takeaway in each game) from defense. Cincy had four plays of 20+ yards on first down last week, after not having one in first two games. Jaguars pulled first win out of hat last week, scoring on 80-yard pass one play after Colts had taken lead with last-minute FG. Jax is 11-7 vs one-time division rivals, but lost last two meetings, 21-19/ 30-20; home team won 12 of 18 series games, with Bengals losing seven of nine visits here. Four of last seven series games were decided by 7 or less points. AFC North teams are 3-5 vs spread outside the division (1-3 as favorites); AFC South teams are 5-3, 3-3 as underdogs. Bengals are now 17-10 vs spread in game following their last 27 wins; am thinking we’ve underestimated the coaching job Lewis has done working for cheapskate Mike Brown.

Saints (0-3) @ Packers (1-2) — Green Bay on short week after chaotic last-minute loss in Seattle, game where Rodgers got sacked eight times in first half; Pack covered 14 of last 19 tries as home favorite- they’re 10-3 vs spread in game following last 13 losses. Rudderless Saints allowed 3rd-most yards in history of NFL in first three games- they’ve allowed 34 ppg in 0-3 start, blowing 24-6 lead at home to 0-2 Chiefs last week, giving up 273 rushing yards- they’ve giving up average of 215 rushing yards/game. NO is underdog for first time this year; since ’07, they’re 5-8-1 vs spread as road dogs. Teams split four meetings (average total, 64) over last seven years; Saints lost three of four visits here (before that, all their visits to Wisconsin were played in Milwaukee). Guessing its been while since team (Saints) scored 83 points in first three games, but didn’t cover any of them. Safe to say Roger Goodell won’t be attending this game.

Redskins (1-2) @ Buccaneers (1-2) — Not sure Washington is better with RGIII but they sure as hell are more exciting, scoring 45-28-31 points in its 1-2 start; problem is, defense has had attrition, allowing 8.1/12.8 yards/pass attempt to Rams/Bengals last two games. Redskins have run ball for 153-176-213 yards, but are just 11-40 on 3rd down, part of why they’ve lost field position by 12-8 yards last two games. All three Buc games were decided by 7 or less points; of their four TDs in last two games, only one came on drive longer than 29 yards. Bucs have 8 takeaways already (+4) but only one win, not a good sign. Tampa won three of last four series games, all decided by 6 or less points; since 1994, Redskins lost seven of eight visits here. Average total in last five series games is 29.6. Underdogs are 6-0 vs spread in NFC East teams’ non-divisional road games (2-0 as road dogs). NFC South home favorites are 1-3 outside their division. Former Buc coach Morris is Skins' secondary coach.

Giants (2-1) @ Eagles (2-1) — You can’t turn ball over three times a game and win for any length of time; Eagles are 2-1 despite 12 giveaways (6 INT, 6 fumbles) already, include horrific mishap before half in desert last week, when time/score blunder turned what should’ve been 17-3 deficit into 24-0 debacle. Giants had three extra days to prepare after crushing Panthers last week; they’ve scored 61 points in last five quarters, averaging 10.0/7.2 yards/pass attempt in last two games. Both Eagle wins this year are by single point, when Vick led winning drive in last 2:00; they’re 6-10 in last 16 tries as home favorite, 15-13 in last 28 games where spread was 3 or less points. Giants covered five of last seven as road dogs; they’re 4-1-1 in last six where spread was 3 or less points. Philly won seven of last eight series games, with visitor winning four of last five; Giants are 3-2 in last five visits here- they’ve won first meeting with Iggles in five of last seven years.

Bears (2-1) @ Cowboys (2-1) — Dallas struggling mightily on offense, scoring 23 points in last two games, with only one TD drive longer than 23 yards; they’ve run ball 39 times for 87 yards vs Seattle/Tampa, neither of which reminds us of ’85 Bears. Cowboys started 3 of 12 drives in Tampa territory, still scored only 16 points last week. Dallas has now covered only three of last 15 games as home favorite, though they’ve been better home favorite outside the division (13-10 since ’07, compared to 3-11 vs NFC East foes). Cutler is 28-58 passing last two games; he just looks bad when pressured, moreso than most QBs. Since ’07, Chicago is 6-10-2 vs spread as non-divisional road underdog- they’ve converted only 13 of 41 on 3rd down, but they do have 11 sacks in last two games. Underdogs are 10-0 vs spread in non-divisional games involving NFC East teams; NFC East squads are 0-7 as non-divisional favorites, 0-4 at home.

Armadillosports.com

Las Vegas Money Moves
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

It’s been a wild week in Las Vegas with all the hoopla surrounding the bad call in Monday night’s Packers-Seahawks game. Because the story was so big and the play of Golden Tate cleverly taking the ball away for the winning score was replayed by ESPN for almost 48 straight hours in Tim Tebow-like coverage from last season, one of the stories that found its way into the mainstream was the swing Las Vegas sports books took on the one play.

Reports came from all over the place with all kinds of misinformation being spread around due to writers misquoting sports book directors and also gathering their information from other unworthy sources such as Danny Sheridan, who was always one of my favorites growing up, but never realized how irrelevant he was to the betting world until I started working in a sports book.

Outlandish claims of a $1 billion swing on the game around the world was the headline that grabbed the most attention. It’s hard enough gathering quality factual information in Nevada where the betting is regulating and charted, let alone coming up with a figure for the entire world. But facts didn’t seem to matter in the story. The wow factor of $1 billion was enough to show the magnitude of the bad call on the most sensationalized level. Someone could have really got big headlines by saying they thought the swing was worth $2 billion, or why even stop there, $3 billion. Now that's a story.

The truth of the matter in Nevada was that there was anywhere from $10 to $15 million wagered on the game with about a $2 to $5 million swing on the game, not a $15 million swing as some were misquoted. People around the country wanted to make believe like this game was bet on Super Bowl proportions with a huge decision at stake, but there were several games that the books won more with on Sunday. Although the Seahawks winning was beneficial for most books, the deciding factor in the game was more about the game staying UNDER the total, as is the case for most high-profile isolated games.

The two-team parlay, with either side to the UNDER was what most books -- particularly the local books -- were sweating. I mention the local books because they are collectively the busiest in the state on a Monday night with volume, compared to the strip properties that have their occupancy fall by up to 50% with guest leaving on Sunday. Walk down the strip on a Monday through Thursday when a convention isn’t in town; it’s a ghost town compared to Friday through Sunday.

The spillover effect carried on all week as some sports books tried to make a marketing ploy out of the publicity, which I like. Why not make a splash and ride the wave of a story? Irish bookmaker Paddy Power immediately jumped into the fray with refunds on the Packers as part of their “Justice Payouts” their known for whenever an official or judge makes a bad call.

Here in Las Vegas, no one wanted to enter that territory. It’s a bad precedent to set -- refunding losing wagers. But one casino said the heck with it, and did it anyway despite the chain of sports books they’re affiliated with apparently not knowing anything about it. The D casino on Fremont, formerly the Fitzgerald, sent out a press release on Wednesday saying they would refund all wagers. William Hill runs their sports book, but couldn’t stop the casino promotion if they wanted to. If the boss wants to refund wagers by hand paying at the cage, that’s his choice.

The sports book at the D gets very limited action and it would be a fair estimation to say the wagers on the Packers totaled less than $10,000, and probably only half of that will be cashed in between tickets being ripped up, or others not knowing about the promotion. The likes of Floyd Mayweather do not make their bets at the D.

William Hill sports books didn’t follow suit with the payout at all their books, but they did offer a nice gesture to everyone betting the Packers this week. All wagers on the Packers will be offered at EVEN money with no juice attached. It’s not a refund, but it’s still a nice way to gain some publicity off a such a unique situation. And instead of losing $110 on the Packers this week, you might only lose $100.

Week 4 Line Moves

Either because bettors are busted from the past two weeks of getting mugged by the sports books, or they are skeptical of the lines and indecisive, the action has been light this week with not a lot of movement.

The Packers have held steady at -7½ for most of the week for their home game against the Saints. There was a bump up to -8 on Tuesday, but that number was gone by Wednesday. Both teams are combined 1-5 straight-up and against-the-spread this season.

The Patriots could lose their third straight game for the first time in 10 years, but bettors aren’t buying into it. The Pats opened -3 and have been bet up -4 for their game at Buffalo. The total in this game is the puzzling part, as it's gone down from 51 to 50. In last season;s game at Buffalo, the Bills won, 34-31.

Sports books didn’t have a line posted on the Lions all week because of Matthew Stafford’s questionable status (hip), but when he was upgraded to probable, the books posted a number of -4 at home against the Vikings as if Shaun hill was going to be starting. This game was set to be at least -7½ with Stafford playing. Expect a run on the game and if you like the Lions, get it now.

The Panthers found a little support this week in their road game at Atlanta. Despite the Falcons being perfect in virtually every category imaginable, and the Panthers looking awful last Thursday night, the Panthers went from +7½ to +7.

The 49ers are staying in the Eastern time zone this week -- no travel back to San Francisco following the Minnesota game, just as they did last season when they had back-to-back road games afar. The 49ers opened as three-point favorites against the Jets and have been bet up -4.

The Cardinals have been the underdog in each of their first three games, and won them all. This week they opened as a seven-point home favorites against the Dolphins. Money came in on the Dolphins immediately, dropping the game to -6.5. And then on Thursday, after Reggie Bush was announced to be playing, the game dropped to -5.5.

The Broncos have lost four straight home games to the Raiders, and haven’t covered their past six, but they still opened as 6½-point favorites and have been bet up to -7. Peyton Manning has gotten off to slow starts in each of his three starts this season, leading to a disappointing 1-2 record, a start that some believe Tebow could have matched.

It’s apparent that the Redskins are going to score a lot of points this season, but also give up a ton too, which makes the total dropping in their game at Tampa Bay a little perplexing. The total opened at 48½ and has been bet down to 47½, likely because of the Bucs defense looking to be their strength. The money has been on the Redskins side as bettors took +3, dropping the line to +2½.

The Eagles opened as three-point favorites for their Sunday night home game against the Giants, but G-Men money dropped the game to -1. When it was announced that Hakeem Nicks would not play, the game moved back up to -2½. The Nicks angle didn’t work out too well for bettors who jumped on the Panthers under the same circumstances last Thursday.

NFL Poolies Betting Cheat Sheet: Week 4
By Covers.com

Want to handicap Sunday's NFL action but don't have time to research every game? Check out our NFL poolies cheat sheet for all your football wagering needs. We give you quick-hitting notes on all of Week 4's action.

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (4, 51)

Patriots QB Tom Brady has an 18-2 career mark against the Bills with 46 touchdowns and 17 interceptions. In last's season’s game at Buffalo, WR Wes Welker had career highs in catches (16) and receiving yards (217) and tied a career best with two TD receptions. New England is 7-1 ATS in its last eight contests in Buffalo.

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (-12, 45)

Texans RB Arian Foster leads the NFL in carries and a rushing attack that has averaged 150 yards per game over the first three games. The Titans have surrendered a league-high 37.7 points per game, but QB Jake Locker had the best game of his pro career with 378 yards passing in last week’s overtime victory over the Lions. The over is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings.

San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (1, 44.5)

Jamaal Charles put any concerns about the condition of his surgically-repaired knee to rest, rushing for 233 yards and a TD to rally the Chiefs past the New Orleans Saints last week. Chargers QB Philip Rivers was intercepted twice by the Falcons and threw for only 173 yards last week, his lowest output since the final game of the 2009 season. The under is 4-0 in the last four meetings.

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-4.5, 47)

Second-year QB Christian Ponder is off to a fast start, completing 70.1 percent of his passes with four TDs and a 104.9 rating. He'll have another weapon to throw to as speedster Jerome Simpson (suspension) makes his season and Vikings' debut Sunday. Lions QB Matthew Stafford practiced this week and appears healthy enough to play Sunday after exiting last week’s loss to the Titans because of a strained leg muscle. Detroit is 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall.

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-7, 48)

Carolina's 27th-ranked rush defense will need to contend with Michael Turner, who has gouged the Panthers for an average of 104 yards and scored 11 TDs during a seven-game span. The Falcons defense has produced 11 takeaways - including a league-best plus-10 ratio so far this campaign. The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.

Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams (2.5, 39)

The Seahawks look to open a season at 3-1 for the first time since 2007 as they try for their fourth consecutive win over the Rams and 14th in 15 meetings. The health of RB Steven Jackson (groin) remains a concern for the Rams after he gained only 29 yards on 11 carries against the Bears last week. Jackson did not practice on Wednesday. The Seahawks are 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.

San Francisco 49ers at N.Y. Jets (4, 41.5)

The New York Jets suffered a crushing blow when it was revealed that star defensive back Darrelle Revis would miss the rest of the season with a torn ACL. Jets signal-caller Mark Sanchez will also be without one of his weapons on Sunday, with rookie receiver Stephen Hill (hamstring) expected to sit out. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.

Miami Dolphins at Arizona Cardinals (-5.5, 39)

Dolphins RB Reggie Bush is questionable after suffering a sprained ligament in his left knee against the Jets last week. Bush, who underwent an MRI that revealed no structural damage, is averaging six yards per carry. Arizona may have some reinforcements for Sunday as S Adrian Wilson (ankle) and TE Todd Heap (knee) could return from injuries. The Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-6.5, 48.5)

The Raiders, who have won four straight at Denver, got their running game pumping with Darren McFadden leading the way with 113 yards and a TD in last week's win over Pittsburgh. Broncos RB Willis McGahee suffered a rib injury against Houston last week and was a limited participant in practice Wednesday, but is expected to play. The road team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.

Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars (1, 43.5)

The Bengals' passing game has been clicking, as QB Andy Dalton looks for his third consecutive 300-yard game. Dalton has a rising star on the receiving end of many of his passes in A.J. Green, who racked up a career-high 183 receiving yards last week. Jacksonville RB Maurice Jones-Drew's holdout has had little effect on his ability, as he ranks second in the NFL with 314 rushing yards. The Jaguars have won seven of the last nine meetings in Jacksonville.

New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers (-9, 53)

The Saints defense has been atrocious (league-worst 477.3 ypg) and is a major reason why the team is 0-3 for the first time since 2007. Quarterback Drew Brees broke his own completion percentage record last season (71.6), but is connecting on just 54.7 percent of his attempts, the lowest rate since he became a full-time starter. Packers QB Aaron Rodgers has been sacked a league-high 16 times so far this season. The poor protection has led to Green Bay's 24th ranking in scoring (19.0 ppg). The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.

Washington Redskins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1.5, 47)

Washington, surprisingly, is the league's highest-scoring team thanks to rookie QB Robert Griffin III, but it has also allowed the second-most points in the NFC. Tampa Bay has the league's top rushing defense, but suffered a big blow when DE Adrian Clayborn, the team's sack leader in 2011, suffered a season-ending knee injury last week. The Bucs have won six straight home games against the Redskins.

N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-1, 47.5)

The Giants defense was stellar in Week 3, picking off Cam Newton three times in a 36-7 rout of the Carolina Panthers. On offense, RB Ahmad Bradshaw (neck) will return to the starting lineup this week and split carries with Andre Brown. Philadelphia leads the league with 12 turnovers thanks mostly to the sloppy play of QB Michael Vick, who has thrown six INTs and fumbled the ball away three times. The Giants are 1-7 ATS in the last eight meetings.

49ers at Jets: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com

San Francisco 49ers at New York Jets (+4, 40.5)

The New York Jets suffered a crushing blow when it was revealed that star defensive back Darrelle Revis would miss the rest of the season with a torn anterior cruciate ligament. If that news wasn’t bad enough, they are also going to have to find a way to get their offense going against the San Francisco 49ers this week. For the third time in the first four weeks, the 49ers will have to travel at least two time zones to play on the road.

The Minnesota Vikings used a mobile quarterback to get around San Francisco’s fearsome defense, which means Tim Tebow could see more touches this week for New York. Tebow has been most effective on special teams early in the season and has yet to assert himself as an offensive playmaker with the Jets. New York will be looking to drop San Francisco to .500 when the teams meet in New Jersey on Sunday afternoon.

LINE: Oddsmakers opened the 49ers as 3-point road favorites which was bet up to -4. The total dropped from 40.5 to 39.5 before being bet back to the original number.

WEATHER: The forecast for MetLife Stadium is calling for a 50 percent chance of rain with temperatures dipping into the mid-60s. Winds will blow NNE at 5 mph.

ABOUT THE 49ERS (2-1, 2-1 ATS): San Francisco was on the very short list of the best teams in the NFL after convincing wins over the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions, but slipped up last week in a 24-13 loss at Minnesota. The 49ers struggled to contain Christian Ponder in the pocket, and Alex Smith was uncharacteristically sloppy at quarterback. They just have to get through New York before enjoying a stretch of five of their next six games at home. San Francisco could try to exploit the Jets’ Revis-less secondary by featuring Randy Moss, who has been limited to eight catches in the first three weeks. Smith got a pair of new receivers in Randy Moss and Mario Manningham in the offseason but is still focusing on tight end Vernon Davis in the passing game.

ABOUT THE JETS (2-1, 2-1 ATS): There is plenty of doom and gloom surrounding New York after Revis’ diagnosis. The Pro Bowler served as the quarterback of the Jets defense, and his ability to lock down a receiver in single coverage made it easier for Rex Ryan to call multiple blitz packages. Now that Revis is done, Antonio Cromartie steps into the No. 1 cornerback slot and Kyle Wilson will replace Revis in the lineup. New York showed several areas of weakness in a sloppy 23-20 overtime win in Miami last weekend, including a running game that is averaging just 3.3 yards per attempt. Tebow lined up for 12 plays with the offense against Miami and accounted for zero yards. The Wildcat packages designed to get him onto the field have not worked and Tebow spent most of his time at H-back in Miami. Mark Sanchez has completed less than 50 percent of his passes in each of the last two weeks.

TRENDS:

* Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* 49ers are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games overall.
* Jets are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games vs. team with winning road record.
* Over is 26-11 in Jets' last 37 games overall.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Sanchez will be without one of his weapons on Sunday, with rookie receiver Stephen Hill (hamstring) expected to sit out.

2. The 49ers are 10-1 under coach Jim Harbaugh when winning the time of possession battle and 5-3 when coming out on the short end.

3. San Francisco KR Kyle Williams set a career high with 144 yards on returns last week, outgaining the offense by himself at one point.

Saints at Packers: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com

New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers (-9, 53)

Drew Brees recently said the replacement referees were “an embarrassment to the league.” Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers agreed. The good news is the regular referees will be back on the field - the NFLRA and the league reached an agreement late Wednesday - when the Packers try to rebound and send the the New Orleans Saints to just their second 0-4 start in 16 seasons Sunday at Lambeau Field. Brees’ Saints may be searching for answers after blowing an 18-point lead to fall to 0-3 last week, but the Packers are feeling the biggest losers heading into their Week 4 matchup after being robbed of a win Monday night.

Green Bay was leading Seattle 12-7 when the replacement referees ruled that Golden Tate hauled in a Hail Mary and upheld the call upon review, despite visual evidence that showed M.D. Jennings clearly had made a game-clinching interception. The backlash quickly forced a deal between the league and the officials. This is the first meeting since the memorable 2011 season-opening shootout that was won by the Packers 42-34 thanks to a last-second goal-line stand.

LINE: Packers -9, O/U 53

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-60s and sunny skies at Lambeau Field. Winds will be light out of east.

ABOUT THE SAINTS (0-3): Who ‘Dat? The answer, lately, is everyone. The Saints, who are still dealing with the fallout of Bountygate, are 0-3 for the first time since 2007 after losing to Kansas City 27-24 in overtime last week. Brees, who signed a five-year, $100 million contract this summer, hasn’t looked the same without suspended head coach Sean Payton calling the plays, and the defense has been atrocious (league-worst 477.3 ypg). Brees broke his own completion percentage record last season (71.6), but is connecting on just 54.7 percent of his attempts, the lowest rate since he became a full-time starter. He has a pedestrian touchdown-to-interception ratio (7 TDs, 5 INTs). Brees’ main target has been running back Darren Sproles, who leads the team with 18 catches. The speedy Sproles failed to record a reception for the first time since 2010 last week. Meanwhile, TE Jimmy Graham has a touchdown catch in six straight games.

ABOUT THE PACKERS (1-2): Green Bay is seething after having a game literally ripped away from it on Monday night. Several Packers players took to Twitter, bashing the league and the outcome. But they have other issues to address, mainly the fact that Rodgers has been sacked more times (16) than any quarterback after being taken down eight times in the first half of Monday’s loss. The poor protection has led to the Packers being ranked 24th in scoring (19.0). Like Brees, something is amiss about Rodgers as well. After throwing 45 touchdowns last season, the reigning league MVP has just three thus far. Green Bay’s defense is markedly improved, perhaps in part to Charles Woodson’s move to safety, and is No. 1 in the league against the pass (125.3 ypg). Linebacker Clay Matthews is well on his way to a bounce-back season, leading the league with six sacks.

TRENDS:

* Over is 6-0 in the last six meetings.
* Favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Saints are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. “(The) 13th man beat us tonight.” – a tweet from Green Bay tight end Tom Crabtree in reference to Seattle’s famed 12th man – the 13th man being the officials.

2. The Saints are 2-9 on the road against the Packers.

3. New Orleans didn’t record a single first down in its final 12 offensive snaps last week. Brees was 0-for-6 in the fourth quarter and overtime.

Total Talk - Week 4
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com

Week 2 Recap

The 'under' produced a 10-6 record in Week 3 and almost all of the outcomes were on great paces at halftime. The Dolphins and Jets was one exception, as the two teams turned a 7-6 game at the break into a 23-20 final. Also, Arizona led Philadelphia 24-0 after two quarters but neither team could execute in the second-half and gamblers saw the 27-6 final score go 'under' the closing number of 42. On the year, the 'under' stands at 25-23 through 48 games.

Early Thoughts

I've often been asked by users how I handicap totals in the NFL. Everybody has their own unique style but I believe the starting point is the matchup between the offensive and defensive units for the teams involved. VegasInsider.com has plenty of power ratings available, where you can differentiate those units.

I personally put more stock into yards gained and yards allowed, rather than points scored and allowed. If you can move the chains consistently, you'll eventually score. And if you can force three-and-outs, teams won't score. The perfect combination for an 'over' team is a great offense and bad defense. Conversely, a great 'under' club has a sound defense and an inconsistent offense. It's pretty simple to grasp and you can see those facts have already played out.

Cincinnati and Washington are the only teams to see all three of their games go 'over' the number this season. Most would assume it's the offense that's the reason behind those results, but the lack of defense shouldn't go unnoticed. The Bengals (416) and Redskins (429) are ranked 29th and 30th in yards allowed.

Dallas (250) and Houston (255) own the two best defensive units in the NFL in terms of yards allowed and to no surprise, the Cowboys (3-0) and Texans (2-1) have combined for a 5-1 'under' mark. Similar to Dallas, the Cardinals and Seahawks both own 3-0 records to the 'under' and both have stout defensive units, plus the aforementioned inconsistent offense.

Head-to-Head Trends

New England at Buffalo: The Patriots have scored 49, 31, 34 and 38 in the last four encounters with the Bills, which has helped the 'over' go 3-1 during this span
Minnesota at Detroit: The 'over' went 2-0 last year but the 'under' was on a 6-0 prior to 2011
Carolina at Atlanta: Last year, the total went 1-1 but the combined points were 48 and 54
San Diego at Kansas City: The 'under' has cashed in four straight here and the total is hovering in the same neighborhood
Tennessee at Houston: Three straight 'over' tickets in this series
Seattle at St. Louis: The 'under' is on a 3-1 run in this series
Oakland at Denver: The 'over' has gone 5-0 in the last five encounters
N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia: Three of the last four have gone 'under'

Line Moves

Week 3 had eight games that saw the line move 1 ½ points or more at CRIS. Unlike Week 2 when the moves went 1-4 overall, the action came out on top in Week 3 with a 7-1 record. Here are the totals that have been adjusted by 1 ½ points or more at CRIS.

Minnesota at Detroit: Line opened 47 and jumped to 48 1/2
Carolina at Atlanta: Line opened 50 and dropped 48 1/2
San Diego at Kansas City: Line opened 46 and dropped 44 ½
Seattle at St. Louis: Line opened 40 ½ and dropped to 39
Miami at Arizona: Line opened 41 and dropped to 39
Cincinnati at Jacksonville: Line opened 41 ½ and jumped to 44 1/2
Washington at Tampa Bay: Line opened 49 and dropped to 47 1/2
Chicago at Dallas: Line opened 45 and dropped to 41 ½

50-Spots

Based on closing numbers, there have been six games this season with totals listed at 50 or higher. The 'under' has gone 4-2 in those contests and three of the six have had New Orleans involved. The Saints saw their first two games go 'over' as they gave up 40 and 35 points to the Redskins and Panthers respectively. Last week, New Orleans lost to the Chiefs 27-24 in overtime and despite the high output, the game closed at 51 ½ points and stayed 'under.'

This week, the Saints head to Green Bay and once again the total is in the fifties but the number might be too high here. The line opened 54 and has already dropped to 53 at most outfits. If you look at the matchup based on past history, you would lean to the 'over.'

However, Green Bay's offense is far behind its defense, which is real good. We understand the Saints' defense is awful (34 PPG, 477 YPG), but their offense isn't clicking and it looked horrible last week (288 yards) against the Chiefs, especially quarterback Drew Brees, who failed to complete a pass in the fourth quarter or overtime during last week's home setback.

Last year, this pair put up 76 points in the 2011 Week 1 opener at Lambeau Field and the 'over' ticket (47) was never in doubt. If you're smart, forget that outcome and expect a complete change on Sunday.

Under the Lights

Including Thursday's affair between the Browns and Ravens, the 'under' has now produced an 8-3 (73%) record in primetime games.

Fearless Predictions

Just like that, we're in the black! After losing $220 in Week 2, we swept all of the wagers for a profit of $400 based on one-unit plays. With season profits of $180, let's try to keep it rolling. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end - Good Luck!

Best Over: New England-Buffalo 50 1/2

Best Under: Chicago-Dallas 41 1/2

Best Team Total: Under St. Louis 18 1/2

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Over 42½ New England-Buffalo
Under 48 Seattle-St. Louis
Under 62 New Orleans-Green Bay