Week 5 Openers
By Kevin Rogers
Heading into the second week of October, very few lines released by the M Resort in July are significantly different than the ones put on the board on Sunday night by oddsmakers. Week 5 currently has four games in which the spread differential is three points or more from the original openers put out in the summer. Three of these contests are upper-tier matchups, including the two primetime games. We'll start with the Texans, who go for their third home win in three tries with Oakland coming to town.
Raiders at Texans
July opener: Houston -3
Sunday opener: Houston -7
The Texans received a scare in Sunday's 17-10 victory over the Steelers when star wideout Andre Johnson suffered a hamstring injury in the first half. Johnson is questionable for Sunday's matchup against the Raiders, as Houston looks to improve to 4-1 on the season. Oakland pulled off a nice upset over the Jets in Week 3, but was humbled by the Patriots in a Week 4 loss to drop to 2-2.
The expectations for the Texans with this early number is they would probably be 2-2 with losses to the Saints and Steelers, but Houston's offense churned the clock and kept Pittsburgh's offense on the sidelines for the most part on Sunday. The Raiders' first two opponents weren't expected to do much this season (Denver and Buffalo), as the 2-2 record is pretty much on line. Oakland and Houston have each been strong ATS teams with 3-1 ATS marks through four weeks.
Jets at Patriots
July opener: New England -5½
Sunday opener: New England -9
These two AFC East rivals meet up for the first time since the Jets knocked the Patriots out of the playoffs in a divisional round victory. New York received a reality check in Sunday night's blowout loss at Baltimore, its second consecutive setback. The Jets couldn't win in Oakland in Week 3, but the Patriots were able to conquer the Black Hole with a 31-19 triumph over the Raiders on Sunday.
New England split a pair of regular season meetings with New York each of the last two years, while the Patriots' defense looks to duplicate a terrific effort in a 45-3 pounding of the Jets in Foxboro last November. The two regular season contests the previous two years at Gillette Stadium have been decided by 17 and 42 points, but the playoff win in January by the Jets came as a nine-point 'dog, 28-21.
Packers at Falcons
July opener: Green Bay -1
Sunday opener: Green Bay -4
The team to beat through the first month of the season is the defending Super Bowl champion Packers, who have rolled to a 4-0 start. Green Bay's offense dominated Denver in a 49-23 rout as 12-point favorites, the 12th win in the last 13 games at Lambeau Field. The Pack hits the road for a rematch of the NFC Divisional Playoff rout of Atlanta this past January, 48-21. The Falcons return to the Georgia Dome after sneaking by the Seahawks in a 30-28 victory, but Atlanta failed to cover as six-point 'chalk.'
Mike Smith's team has endured a tough road, literally, in the first four weeks with three away contests already. The Falcons outlasted the Eagles in their only home game this season to improve to 21-5 SU in Smith's tenure at the Georgia Dome. However, this is the third meeting between these two clubs in Atlanta since last November with the Falcons knocking off the Packers, 20-17 as two-point favorites in the regular season.
Bears at Lions
July opener: Detroit -1
Sunday opener: Detroit -6
The Lions are turning heads week in and week out after another impressive comeback win on the road. Detroit overcame a 27-3 deficit at Dallas, thanks to a pair of interception returns for touchdowns to spark the rally. The Lions improved to 4-0 for the first time since 1980, as Detroit welcomes in rival Chicago to Ford Field to close out Week 5.
The Bears failed to cover in a five-point home victory over the Panthers, but Chicago managed to sneak back to the .500 mark to remain two games behind Green Bay and Detroit in the NFC North. Chicago has beaten Detroit six straight times, while taking five of the previous six meetings at Ford Field. Those numbers don't seem as important with Detroit's rapid improvement on both sides of the ball, while the Lions are now 4-0 SU/ATS the last four times as a home favorite.
NFL Notebook - Week 5
By Stephen Nover
Just Green Bay and Detroit remain unbeaten through four games.
The defending Super Bowl champion Packers' offense is even better than last season with Aaron Rodgers still improving, Jermichael Finley and Ryan Grant healthy and Randall Cobb boosting the return game.
The Packers are on pace to score 592 points and Rodgers is on track to throw for 5,300 yards. Both marks would be single-season NFL records.
Certainly the Packers are for real. But what about the Lions? Just how good are they?
The Lions pulled off an overtime road victory against Minnesota two weeks ago after trailing by 20 points and then came from a staggering 24 points down in the third quarter to beat the Cowboys in Dallas. Minus those two improbable comebacks, Detroit would be an improved 2-2, but not worth being mentioned in the same breath as the mighty Packers.
Note, the Lions and Packers don't tangle until Thanksgiving Day on Nov. 24. They've never met that late in the season during a non-strike year.
It's the Lions who are the hottest team with eight straight victories. If you count preseason, the Lions have won 12 in a row. Are the Lions really this good?
Yes and no.
Yes in the sense that wide receiver Calvin Johnson is the best in the game. Even Dallas defensive coordinator Rob Ryan should admit that now. Before Johnson burned the Cowboys for two touchdowns, Ryan ridiculously stated that Johnson wasn't as good as Dallas' two top wideouts, Dez Bryant and Miles Austin.
Yes in that Matthew Stafford is a major talent capable of making all the throws. When healthy he rates among the top seven quarterbacks and he's healthy now.
Yes, in that the Lions' defensive line could be the best in the league sparked by dominant tackle Ndamukong Suh.
Detroit last went 4-0 in 1980. The Lions didn't make the playoffs that year.
The Lions aren't a fluke this year. Matt Millen is far in the rear view mirror. Improvement has occurred each of the last two years as Jim Schwartz has upgraded the talent while providing solid coaching and leadership, something the Lions have consistently lacked since the 1950s.
But let's not get carried away. The Lions aren't nearly a complete enough team to be considered among the elite teams yet. Stafford has never lasted an entire season and Jahvid Best, by far the Lions' top runner, also has proven injury prone.
The Lions' offensive line is average-to-below average. The linebacking isn't anything special although Stephen Tulloch is a tackles machine and their secondary has gone from terrible to semi-respectable. Depth is a problem at linebacker.
It's easy to overlook these mediocre areas right now in the glow of the Lions' 4-0 mark and upcoming Monday night home game against the Bears. The spotlight and center stage clearly is on the Lions now. They are favored against the Bears for the first time since 2005.
This is the Lions' time now. Keep in mind, though, that they have tough matchups in five of their final six games hosting Green Bay on Thanksgiving followed by a road game against New Orleans, a home game versus Minnesota then at Oakland followed by a home matchup against San Diego and then a regular-season finale at Green Bay.
So don't anoint a playoff spot yet for the Lions.
NFL Poolies' Cheat Sheet: Week 5 Betting Notes
By Colin Kelly
Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans (-6)
Why Raiders cover: They can run ball, which keeps Texans QB Matt Schaub off field. Even in a 31-19 home loss to Patriots, Oakland gained 160 yards on ground. Raiders lead league at 178.8 rushing ypg. Oakland has cashed five straight following a SU loss.
Why Texans cover: Well, it appears Arian Foster can once again run ball, after blowing up for 155 yards in win vs. Pittsburgh. Houston 5-1 ATS last six vs. Men in Black.
Total (48.5): Raiders like to play to over, with streaks of 6-2 overall and 12-4 inside AFC. But Texans on under run of 5-1 last six as a chalk.
Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings (-1.5)
Why Cardinals cover: They cashed last year in 27-24 loss at Minnesota, with Derek Anderson at QB. Kevin Kolb a big upgrade, going against aging Donovan McNabb. Underdog the play in last five Cards-Vikes matchups.
Why Vikings cover: 8-3-1 ATS last dozen as home favorite. Cards 6-13 ATS last 19 overall.
Total (45.5): Over looks like right move, as it’s on stretches of 43-18 with Arizona as a road pup, 4-0 with Minny as home chalk and 4-1 in this NFC rivalry.
Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5)
Why Titans cover: Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger (foot) at less than full strength, and Pittsburgh looking old and slow, despite status as defending AFC champs. Tennessee QB Matt Hasselbeck seems revived. Underdog 7-1 ATS in last eight Titans-Steelers tilts.
Why Steelers cover: Have covered spread in last four at Heinz Field and are good bounce-back bet, with runs of 5-0 ATS after SU loss and 5-1 ATS following pointspread setback.
Total (39): Over 6-1 in Steelers’ last seven AFC contests and 7-2 last nine Pittsburgh meetings in this rivalry.
Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts (-1.5)
Why Chiefs cover: Coming off victory over winless Minnesota. Todd Haley’s troops 9-4 ATS last 13 getting points. And winless Colts don’t have Peyton Manning, a gift that keeps on giving to opponents. Indy 2-6 ATS last eight at home.
Why Colts cover: Tyler Painter actually made some huge plays in Monday loss at Tampa Bay, with Indy cashing as double-digit dog for second straight week. Colts 8-2 ATS last 10 vs. K.C.
Total (39): Under 5-1 K.C.’s last six as pup and 11-1-1 Chiefs’ last 13 roadies as dog of three or less. Last four Chiefs-Colts contests in Indy went under.
Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars (-1.5)
Why Bengals cover: Because Jags are favored despite averaging league-worst 9.8 ppg, combining for meager 23 points in last three outings (7.7 ppg). Cincy 6-1 ATS last seven overall and 5-0 ATS last five catching points. Jacksonville 1-6 ATS last seven overall.
Why Jaguars cover: Have hit five of last six ATS laying points at home.
Total (37): With two under-developed rookie QBs, game has all makings of an under. All four Jacksonville games this year have gone low.
Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants (-9.5)
Why Seahawks cover: The G-Men are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 laying points at home.
Why Giants cover: Seattle still starting Tarvaris Jackson at QB. And Seahawks rarely good making three time-zone trip to East Coast. Most recent case in point: 24-0 loss at Pittsburgh three weeks ago.
Total (43.5): Seahawks have paid over bettors 12 of last 15 overall and six of last seven on highway.
Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5) at Buffalo Bills
Why Eagles cover: They are flat-out desperate. Sexy Super Bowl pick sitting at 1-3 SU and ATS, and could be three games out in NFC East if they stumble in this spot. Bills 3-10-1 ATS last 15 as home pup.
Why Bills cover: Previously unbeaten, but got dose of reality at Cincinnati and should be ready this week. In last home game, Ryan Fitzpatrick & Co. rallied from 21-0 deficit to shock Patriots. Philly on slew of negative pointspread streaks, including 1-6 overall and 1-7 giving points.
Total (49.5): Total has gone high every game this year for Buffalo and five straight overall. Over a scorching 10-1 in Philly’s last 11 roadies.
New Orleans Saints (-6.5) at Carolina Panthers
Why Saints cover: Big advantage at QB, with veteran and former Super Bowl winner Drew Brees vs. Panthers rookie and top draft pick Cam Newton. In this rivalry, Saints 7-2 ATS last nine in Carolina and road team 20-8 ATS last 28.
Why Panthers cover: Newton coming along far better than expected, helping Carolina cover three of four so far. In fact, he’s passing for 374 ypg, third in league, one spot ahead of Brees (351 ypg). New Orleans 4-9 ATS last 13 NFC South games.
Total (51.5): With all the yards these two QBs rack up, over could come in, even as high as it is. But in this division rivalry, under has hit four straight overall and eight straight at Carolina. Under also 10-1 in Saints’ last 11 division tilts.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers (-2.5)
Why Buccaneers cover: At betting window, Bucs dig underdog role (6-1 ATS last seven) and road trips (15-5-1 ATS last 21).
Why 49ers cover: Confident coming off big, come-from-behind upset at Philly. Perhaps new coach Jim Harbaugh figured out how to unlock talent in QB Alex Smith. Niners 4-0-1 ATS last five.
Total (41): Over 3-1 for both teams this year and 4-0 in San Fran’s last four at Candlestick. But under 4-1 Bucs’ last five on highway.
San Diego Chargers (-4) at Denver Broncos
Why Chargers cover: Because that’s what they generally do in this AFC West rivalry, going 7-1-2 ATS last 10. Philip Rivers is a very good QB for San Diego. Kyle Orton is not – after winning his first six starts for Broncos, he’s gone 6-20. Denver 11-27-2 ATS last 40 at Mile High.
Why Broncos cover: This is like a traffic cop at an accident, telling bystanders, “Nothing to see here.” But if we must: Chargers on ATS skids of 1-4-1 overall and 2-6-1 on the road.
Total (46): With Denver involved, over constantly in play, like in last week’s 49-23 loss at Green Bay. Over on runs for Broncos of 7-1 overall, 10-1 against winning teams and 4-1 in Denver vs. Chargers.
New York Jets at New England Patriots (-9.5)
Why Jets cover: That’s a lot of points for a team that reached past two AFC title games. And road team 18-7-1 ATS last 26 in this rivalry.
Why Patriots cover: Jets are a mess. Mark Sanchez not a franchise quarterback, playing behind sieve-like offensive line.
Total (49.5): Both teams play to over a lot. For Jets, over on surges of 9-1 in underdog role and 17-4-1 on road. QB Tom Brady and prolific Pats offense putting up 33.8 ppg this year, and over has gone 16-5-1 last 22 in Foxborough.
Green Bay Packers (-5.5) at Atlanta Falcons
Why Packers cover: They play like Super Bowl champs that they are. Packers have won 10 in a row SU and gone 8-2 ATS in that stretch. One of those wins was 48-21 shellacking of Atlanta in playoffs at Georgia Dome last season.
Why Falcons cover: Revenge and desperation. Matt Ryan & Co. embarrassed in playoff beatdown, and Atlanta needs win to avoid falling below .500, especially with NFC South rivals New Orleans and Tampa playing well.
Total (53.5): Despite Packers’ penchant for scoring, under 10-3 in last 13 on highway and 7-1 in last eight as road chalk.
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-5.5)
Why Bears cover: They seem to shine under Monday night spotlight, at 5-1 ATS in last six appearances. And Detroit lacks that experience, playing first MNF game in 10 years.
Why Lions cover: If they were due for letdown, it was last week at Dallas. And they did let down for a half, before huge comeback win. Detroit favored for first time in years in this NFC North rivalry, and Jim Schwartz’s troops want whole nation to see they’re no fluke. Lions among best bets in league, with ATS streaks of 16-5-2 overall, 9-1-1 after SU win and 12-2-2 after spread-cover.
Total (47.5): Bears tend to play to under, while Lions play to over. But when these rivals meet, over 4-1 last five overall and 4-1 last five at Ford Field. Detroit’s QB-wideout connection of Matt Stafford-Calvin Johnson looks unstoppable.
NFL Week 5
Chiefs (1-3) @ Colts (0-4) - Banged-up Indy on short work week after strong effort came up short Monday night in Tampa; Painter played lot better than expected, but Colts still have only five TD’s on 44 drives, with 17 3/outs- they’re very weak favorite here, vs Chief club that got first win last week. KC turned ball over just once in last two games (+2) after turning it over nine times (-7) in first two games- they’ve scored only four TD’s on 42 drives, with 15 3/outs. Chiefs are 9-20 in last 29 games decided by 7 or less points- they’ve covered five of last seven as a pre-bye underdog. Colts are 10-1 in last 11 series games, winning last three by average score of 19-9; Chiefs lost last five visits here, scoring just 12.6 ppg.
Cardinals (1-3) @ Vikings (0-4) - Larry Fitzgerald comes home with Redbird club that lost last three games by total of 8 points, visiting 0-4 Viking squad that has three losses by 5 or less points, despite leading three of four games by 10+ points at half. Cardinals lost eight of last ten in series, dropping last six visits here, with last win in 1977- they lost 27-24 in OT here LY. Arizona is 3-7 in last 10 games decided by 7 or less points; they’re just 6-26 on 3rd down last two games- they need to develop an option other than Fitzgerald, since teams blanket him in key spots. Vikings don’t have a takeaway in last two games- they outscored foes 37-0 in first half of their two home games, but got outscored 50-6 after intermission.
Eagles (1-3) @ Bills (3-1) - Team that won last three Buffalo games trailed by 11+ points at half; Bills trailed 21-3/21-10 at half in two home games, but won both, outscoring opponents 59-24 in second half. Iggles might be glad to get away from restless home fans after three straight losses- they were outscored 36-6 in second half last two weeks, blowing 23-3 lead at home last Sunday. Eagles’ allowed eight TD’s, two FG’s on ten red zone drives, which is bad- they had only two TD’s on seven red zone drives last week, missing two chip shot FG’s. This is Philly’s first visit to Orchard Park since ’03- they lead series 6-5, with average total in last five meetings, 29.2. Bills (+7) won turnover battle in all four games, scoring defensive TD in each of last two games, but they’ve converted only 12 of 36 on 3rd down last three games.
Raiders (2-2) @ Texans (3-1) - Hamstring injury to Andre Johnson big blow to Texan offense. Houston won five of six series games, with all five wins by 7+ points; Oakland lost 30-17/29-6 in two visits here, last of which was in ’09. Texans are 5-2 in last seven games as home favorite, winning 34-7/17-10 at home this year, allowing two TD’s on 20 drives at Reliant- they’ve allowed total of 30 points in three points, gave up 40 in only loss, in Superdome. Raiders split pair of 3-point decisions on road this year- since ’07, they’re 19-15-1 as road dogs, but in last three games, they’ve allowed 38-24-31 points. Houston is 4-9-2 vs spread in game that followed their last 15 wins. Curious to see if Texans (180 rushing yards vs Steelers last week) can run ball vs Oakland defense (allowed 133.3 rushing yards/game over last three weeks).
Saints (3-1) @ Panthers (1-3) - New Orleans won/covered its last three games by 17-7-13 points; they’ve converted 32 of 58 (55.2%) on 3rd down this year, which is why they’ve run 34 more plays than their opponents- since 2006, they’re 13-9 as road favorite, and are 15-8-1 in last 24 games as single digit favorites. Carolina passed for 403-404-374 yards in three non-monsoon games, but the rainy game is only won they’ve won; panthers’ losses this year are by 7-7-5 points, as Newton grows into starting QB job. Saints won three of last four meetings, winning 16-14/34-3 LY, after losing six of previous seven series games- they’re 4-3 in last seven visits here. Underdogs are 10-6 vs spread in divisional games this season, home dogs 4-2. Saints scored 13 TD’s, tried 14 FG’s, have struggled little in red zone (4.50, 15th). Three of four Carolina games went over the total.
Bengals (2-2) @ Jaguars (1-3) - Jags are 9-2 in last 11 series games, with four of last six meetings decided by 4 or less points, but Jacksonville is struggling on offense with rookie Gabbert under center, scoring three TDs, trying six FGs on 45 drives, with 16 3/outs. In its last three games, Jax is just 10-41 on 3rd down. Underdogs are 4-0 vs spread in Bengal games this year, with last three decided by total of 10 points. Cincy lost nine of last 12 games decided by 7 or less points, but they’re 3-0 vs spread as dogs this year and 11-6 vs spread in game following their last 17 wins- they’re just 7 for last 33 on 3rd down, with rookie Dalton under center- teams with rookie QBs generally struggle (which makes Newton look that much better). AFC North teams are 4-1 vs spread as non-divisional underdogs. All four Jaguar games stayed under the total.
Titans (3-1) @ Steelers (2-2) - Roethlisberger left Reliant Stadium Sunday with a boot on his foot; he has deep bruise, probably a stress fracture too, but he’ll play. Problem is Steelers have been outrushed in three of four games, were outsacked 8-1 last two weeks, but they did win only home game 24-0- they’re 21-18-1 in last 40 games as home favorite. Titans allowed 16 or less points in all four games, giving up only five TDs on 42 drives- they’re given up only 62.7 rushing yards/game the last three weeks. Steelers won three of last four series games, winning 13-10ot/19-11 last two years; Titans lost three of last four visits here, losing by 27-27-3 points- they lost their pre-bye game 59-0/33-25 the last two years. AFC South teams are 4-2 as non-divisional underdogs; AFC North non-divisional favorites are 3-4. Hasselbeck averaged 7.8+ yards/pass attempt in each of last three games.
Seahawks (1-3) @ Giants (3-1) - Home side won nine of last ten series games; Seahawks lost last five visits here, got beat 44-6/41-7 in last two games with Giants. Seattle lost its pre-bye game 27-3/20-3 last two years; they’re 3-15 vs spread in last 18 road games, losing 33-17/24-0 in first two road games this year. Giants scored 28-29-31 points in winning last three games; they’re just 6-11 vs spread in last 17 home games, but did win/cover home opener (28-16 over Rams) this year. Big Blue is 21-13 in last 34 games decided by more than 7 points- they’re 26-15 vs spread in game following their last 41 wins. Seattle is 12-27 in last 39 games decided by more than 7 points- their last two games, both at home, were decided by total of five points. NFC West teams are 4-7-1 vs spread as non-divisional underdogs.
Buccaneers (3-1) @ 49ers (3-1) - Niners were down 23-3 in 3rd quarter at Philly last week, rallied to win, as Harbaugh has instilled mental toughness needed to win close games- they outscored last two opponents 34-8 in second half. Long road trip for Tampa Bay club on short work week after escaping Monday night with win over Colts; Bucs beat Minnesota 24-20 in only previous road game, after being down 17-0 at half- they’ve trailed at half in three of four games. Home side won seven of last eight Buc-49er games; Tampa Bay lost 11 of 13 visits here, winning 21-0 LY. 49ers’ last three games were decided by total of nine points- they’re already +8 in turnovers, with 3-2-3-3 takeaways and only three giveaways. Don’t forget that in only loss, 49ers led Dallas 14-0 just before half. Three of Niners’ four games went over total.
Jets (2-2) @ Patriots (3-1) - Ryan is 3-2 vs Belichick, beating him here 28-21 in LY’s playoffs, but banged-up Jets are playing on road for third week in row, following losses at Oakland/Baltimore, when they allowed 34 points both games (gave up 346 rushing yards last two games). In 56 plays on field last week, Jet offense was outscored 21-3 by Raven defense. 48 of Patriots’ last 66 wins are by more than seven points- they’ve already scored 17 TD’s (on 42 drives) but have also given up 1,910 yards, as all four foes gained 448+ total yards. Welker already has 40 catches for 610 yards, outrageous numbers; Jets did hold last three foes to 3.4/5.3/4.7 ypa; we’ll see what happens here. Over is 3-1 in both team’s games this season. Average total in Jets’ last four visits here is surprisingly high 51.8. Divisional home favorites are just 4-6 vs spread this season.
Chargers (3-1) @ Broncos (1-3) - Denver’s pass defense allowed 7.2/7.8/9.7 yards/pass attempt last three weeks to Dalton/Hasselbeck/Rodgers, could be major problem vs Rivers here. San Diego is 8-2 in last ten series games, with average total in last six 58.7- seven of last nine series games were decided by 11+ points. Bolts won four of last five visits here- they’ve scored 32+ points in five of last six series games, but lost in Foxboro in only road game so far this year. Chargers are 5-10 in last 15 games as road favorite, but their defense appears to be improved, holding last three opponents under 100 yards on ground. Over last decade, Broncos are 8-6 as home underdog; they have only one FG to show for five drives this year that started in enemy territory; before getting crushed in Lambeau last week, all three Denver games had been decided by 3 or less points.
Packers (4-0) @ Falcons (2-2) - Pack pounded Atlanta 48-21 in playoffs here LY, on way to Super Bowl title; teams split last 12 meetings, with four of last seven decided by exactly 3 points. Green Bay is on serious roll, winning all four games this year by 7+ points- they’re 11-7 in last 18 games as road favorite, 24-14-1 in game following their last 39 wins, but this is their first game this year on artificial turf. Falcons not yet firing on all cylinders; they don’t have a sack in last three games. Even in last week’s win, they let 27-7 lead turn into 30-28 nailbiter at end in Seattle, but they’ve covered four of last five as home underdog. Green Bay already has 10 TD drives of 80+ yards- that’s a lot. Over is 3-1 in both team’s games so far this season. NFC non-divisional underdogs are 4-2 vs spread this year. NFC North non-divisional favorites are 3-4.
Bears (2-2) @ Lions (4-0) - First Monday Night Football home game in decade for Motor City, which is fired up over Lions’ 4-0 start. Upstart Detroit won last eight games that counted, despite trailing 20-0/20-3 at half of last two games; they’ve outscored last three opponents 85-13 in second half, with defense sparking rally with two TDs of its own in Dallas last week, but they’ve lost six in row, 10 of last 12 to Bears, with three of last five setbacks by 5 or less points. Chicago won five of last six visits here; their shaky OL (allowed 15 sacks) could have trouble with crowd noise in dome. Bears ran ball 31 times for 224 yards last week, after running it total of 51 times for 161 yards in first three games. Detroit allowed average of 132 rushing yards in last three games. Average total in last five series games is 43.2- all four Detroit games this season went over total.
NFL Week 5 Lines Moves
The lines are on the move for Week 5 of the NFL schedule. We talked to some Las Vegas sportsbook managers to get the inside scoop behind these adjustments:
Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers - Open: -5 Move: -3
A few offshore shops had this game with the Steelers favored by 5 but most sportsbooks opened at 3.5.
With Ben Roethlisberger taking snaps on a bum ankle, money is coming in on the Titans, moving this number down to a field goal. However, not everyone is betting against the Steelers. They’re also wagering on an improved Titans team with a tough defense and a reborn Chris Johnson.
“The Titans defense is improved, but it’s not striking fear into anyone,” says Jay Rood, sportsbook manager at the MGM Mirage.
Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota – Open: 42.5 Move: 45.5
The total is climbing for this West vs. North NFC matchup. Arizona scored 27 points in a loss to the Giants, getting a big day from RB Beanie Wells, who is expected to be back on the field despite a lingering hamstring injury.
“Sometimes, you can’t really explain the moves,” says Jay Kornegay, executive director of race and sportsbook for the Las Vegas Hilton.” I don’t think the total move has that much to do with Wells. He’s a good back but not three points good.”
Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans – Open: -7 Move: -5
Losing Andre Johnson is a big hit for the Texans to take after such a physical game against the Steelers last week. Books factored the loss of the stud WR into the line, but bettors have still jumped all over the Raiders. Oakland will be playing with a lot of emotion following the passing of owner Al Davis Saturday.
“A lot of sharps like Oakland this week,” says Kornegay. “To many people, this is a good spot to play the Raiders with Houston coming off the tough win over the Steelers. They’re playing the ‘Steelers Factor’, with teams struggling the week after playing Pittsburgh.”
New York Jets at New England Patriots – Open: -9.5 Move: -7.5
It’s do or die time for the Jets, which is why bettors are taking the points and hoping New York comes up big against its AFC East rival.
“This is a huge game for them,” Kornegay says about the Jets. “The whole rah-rah Ryan movement could come down to how well the Jets play against the Patriots. This is the turning point for New York’s season.”
San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos – Open: +6 Move +3.5
Are bettors smelling another San Diego swoon? The Chargers are winning ugly and now come to Denver to face an improving division rival. Kornegay points to the injuries to the Bolts passing game and the return to health for many of the Broncos’ key players.
“This is a much bigger game for the Broncos than it is for the Chargers,” he says.
NFL Week 5's Biggest Betting Mismatches
By Scott Cooley
Philadelphia Eagles at Buffalo Bills (+2.5, 50)
Eagles run defense vs. Fred Jackson/C.J. Spiller
Fred Jackson is coming off a bad week against a good run defense, but Chan Gailey knows that he should find plenty of success Sunday.
"We'd like to use Fred Jackson a little more," the head coach said.
The Bills are averaging 137.0 rushing yards per game and 5.3 yards per attempt. Jackson has posted a 5.8 yards-per-carry mark through four games.
Philly has been feeble against the run. The Eagles are allowing an average of 139.5 yards a game and 5.3 yards a carry. They gave up 164 to the Niners last Sunday and 177 to the Giants the week before.
After Week 2, the Eagles played musical chairs with their linebackers to see if that would help production. The following week they benched Casey Matthews and safety Kurt Coleman. Losing stud lineman Trent Cole only compounds the problem.
Juan Castillo has mostly failed in his new role as defensive coordinator. His job is safe for the time being but Andy Reid said Monday he was "wide open" for a change in scheme going forward.
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (+6.5, 51)
Cerberus vs. Panthers run defense
In case you aren't versed in Greek mythology the above name refers to a three-headed hound that guards the gates of the Underworld. Mark Ingram, Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles comprise the Saints monstrous three-man rushing attack.
Sean Payton has made a point to run more in 2011. Injuries decimated this phase of the offense last year but New Orleans ranks 10th in the league this season with 119.0 rushing yards per game. Last week against a decent Jags run defense, the Saints registered 177 on the ground.
Carolina’s offense has been shockingly good but the run defense needs help. Losing two starting linebackers, and having two rookies on the interior of the line, have left this defense extremely vulnerable against the run.
The Panthers rank 31st in the league against the run at 143.8 yards an outing. They also give up 5.2 yards per rush attempt. Matt Forte gashed that unit for 205 yards last Sunday on just 25 carries. Maurice Jones-Drew had 122 on 24 attempts the week before.
New York Jets at New England Patriots (-9, 49.5)
Jets situation vs. Patriots revenge
The Pats haven’t forgotten about losing to New York at home in the playoffs last year as 9.5-point chalk. They also haven’t forgotten the image of Jets players flying around the field afterward like a classless bunch of clowns.
Bill Belichick holds grudges. There’s no chance the Patriots will let off the gas Sunday. If they’re up three scores, they will go for it on fourth-and-goal. They did it last week, and they even like the Raiders (because Al Davis feeds them draft picks).
This is the third straight road game for the Jets. Nick Mangold is expected to return but Bryan Thomas will be missed immensely at outside linebacker.
Tom Brady didn’t ask fans to get “lubed up” for this game like he did San Diego but with another late start time at Foxboro, you know they will be.
An added incentive is that New England will be wearing its 1985 throwback uniforms with red jerseys and the “Pat Patriot” helmet logo. They wore them twice last season against the Vikings and Lions, both games were double-digit wins.
Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons (+6, 52.5)
Aaron Rodgers vs. Falcons pass defense
If Tarvaris Jackson can throw for 319 yards and three touchdowns against Atlanta, the numbers for Aaron Rodgers are going to be ridiculous Sunday night.
And Mr. Rodgers comes into this contest white hot. He threw for 401 yards and four scores last weekend. The offense came away with touchdowns on five of its six trips inside the red zone and converted 9 of 13 third downs. Green Bay is averaging 37.0 points per game in 2011.
The Falcons failed to record a single sack last week against a young Seattle line that has been beaten like a mule. If they couldn’t get to Jackson, they will be lucky to lay a hand on Rodgers.
The Packers couldn’t’ be stopped in the dome last postseason, rolling to a 48-21 victory as 1-point pups. Rodgers misfired on just five of his 36 attempts while throwing for 366 yards and three touchdowns.
Total Talk - Week 5
By Chris David
Week 4 Recap
Let’s call it a draw!
Sixteen games were played in Week 4 and the totals finished with an 8-8 mark. Slowly but surely, gamblers are starting to see the offensive fireworks temper and most would expect that trend to continue as the season progresses. After four weeks, the ‘over’ stands at 35-26-3 (57%).
Thirty-Something
Due to the large amount of high-scoring games through the first quarter of the season, it’s been very noticeable to see the sportsbooks adjust. Each week we’ve touched on the decreasing number of totals listed under 40 points and when you delve into these specific contests, you can see that the numbers still aren’t right. Through 64 games, gamblers have seen 13 games with a closing total of 39½ points or less. In those contests, the ‘over’ owns an eye opening 10-3 (77%) mark.
Kansas City at Indianapolis: This number is hovering around 38 points and when you look at the offensive units, it should probably be lower. The Chiefs (12.3 PPG) and Colts (15.8 PPG) have both been inconsistent this season. However, Kansas City (31.5 PPG) and Indianapolis (27 PPG) have major flaws with their defense. This pair met last year at the same venue, with Peyton Manning too, and the Colts won 19-9.
Cincinnati at Jacksonville: Even though this year has been dominated by ‘over’ tickets, the Jaguars are the only club to not see one. The ‘under’ has cashed in all of Jacksonville’s four games, specifically due to a horrendous offense, which is ranked last in points per game (9.3) and second to last in yards per game (264). The Bengals saw their first two games go ‘over’ but those could’ve easily been ‘under’ winners. Sure enough, Cincinnati has seen its last two go ‘under’ the number. Keep in mind that this game will pit two rookie quarterbacks against one another in Gabbert and Dalton. Barring defensive or special team scores, it’s tough to see this game going above the total of 36 ½-points. On a side note, don’t fall into the trap of telling yourself that if each team gets to 17, then you got a winner. I’m a victim of that rationalization, and I’m sure some of you are too.
Tennessee at Pittsburgh: This game opened at 41 and has dipped to 39 ½ points. It will be interesting to see if settles below the 40-point plateau. The Titans have been a nice surprise this season, especially the play of veteran quarterback Matt Hasselbeck. What’s the reason behind his surge in Nashville? Well, he’s standing up. I’ve always said that if you give any pro QB time, he’ll dice up any secondary and he’s only been sacked four times in four games. What may lead you to an ‘under’ bet here is Pitt’s offense, which has a total of 11 offensive scores (6 TDs) this season. That’s not good, but fortunately the Steelers’ defense has only surrendered 277 yards per game, which is ranked second. These two teams have met three seasons and a row, and the ‘under’ has gone 2-1, with scores of 13-10 and 19-11 in the most recent encounters.
System Plays
Readers following this column over the years on a regular basis are well aware of the “Total Tip – Three Straight on the Road” system. The angle calls for gamblers to play the ‘over’ for any team that is playing their third consecutive game on the road. The results went 4-3 last year, improving the overall record to 26-11-2 (70%) over the last seven seasons. We have seven instances set up for this year’s regular season, with the first one occurring on Sunday between the Patriots and Jets. The other six are listed below:
Week 6 - New Orleans at Tampa Bay
Week 9 – Indianapolis at Tennessee
Week 12 – Arizona at St. Louis, Buffalo at N.Y. Jets
Week 13 – Carolina at Tampa Bay
Week 16 – Cleveland at Baltimore
Under the Lights
After four weeks of primetime games, the ‘over’ owns an 8-1-1 record. We thought this trend would slow down in Week 5 considering the Ravens-Jets matchup on SNF had two great defensive units. What we didn’t know is that aforementioned units would put up a combined 35 points from defense and special team scores. You can’t handicap those particular plays but you can certainly remember them if they meet again in the playoffs. The MNF affair watched Tampa Bay outlast Indianapolis, 24-17. Most books closed the total at 40 and again, two long touchdowns from Colts wide receiver Pierre Garcon was the difference.
Two more games this week and if you’re riding the ‘over’ wave, you’re certainly going to earn it this week with some inflated numbers.
Green Bay at Atlanta: Big revenge game here as the Packers ripped the Falcons 48-21 at the Georgia Dome in the playoffs last season. If you’re going to play ‘under’ here, you need Green Bay to get FGs instead of TDs, which is asking a lot. The Packers have 19 touchdowns (17 offensive) this season and only five field goals. Gamblers have seen four totals listed above 50 points this season and the ‘over’ has gone 3-1, with last week’s matchup between the Patriots and Raiders (50 points, 55.5 O/U) going below the number.
Chicago at Detroit: The Lions have seen all four of their games go ‘over’ the total. Chicago could easily be 4-0 to the ‘over’ too but it stands at 2-2. Four of the last five in this series has gone ‘over’ but they haven’t seen a total higher than 45 ½, and this week’s number is hovering between 47 and 48 points. Make a note that Detroit has only played one home game (KC, 48-3), and Chicago has only played one road game (NO, 13-30). To put it simply, the Lions looked good defensively at home albeit versus the Chiefs and the Bears struggled at the Superdome against the Saints.
Fearless Predictions
Finally, we hit a team total (1-2), our first winner on the season and it was umm, err…very lucky. Thanks Buffalo for scoring just 3 points in the second-half. We got some luck in our ‘over’ bet too with the Giants and Cardinals putting up 42 points in the final 30 minutes. And our best ‘under’ bet was atrocious, as the Bears and Panthers combined for 63 points, 44 in the first half too. The Three-Team Teaser lost as well, so the deficit was $10. On the season, we’re down 50 cents.
As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!
Best Over: Arizona-Minnesota 45
Best Under: Cincinnati-Jacksonville 37
Best Team Total: Over Minnesota 23.5
Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Over 36 Arizona-Minnesota
Under 46 Cincinnati-Jacksonville
Under 53 Seattle-N.Y. Giants
Tip Sheet - Week 5
By Kevin Rogers
The byes are kicking in around the NFL with six teams off in Week 5, while a handful of clubs that have started slow out of the gate look to get back on track. A pair of winless squads is home favorites, while two 1-3 teams are laying points, including the disappointing Eagles. We'll start in western New York with the surprising Bills trying to keep the alleged "Dream Team" struggling.
Eagles (-2½, 49½) at Bills
Philadelphia destroyed St. Louis in the season opener and the Eagles looked like the team to beat in the NFC. However, three straight losses to the Falcons, Giants, and Niners have dropped the Eagles into last place in the NFC East as Andy Reid's club heads to Buffalo for an interconference battle with the Bills. Buffalo attempts to rebound after blowing a two-touchdown lead in a last-second setback at Cincinnati.
The Eagles are favored for the fifth straight week, as Philadelphia is just 4-7 ATS the last 11 games against AFC opponents. Philadelphia's defense has been lit up recently by allowing 29.3 ppg in its three losses, while Buffalo's offense scored 34 points or more in each of its three victories. The Bills haven't cashed at home off a loss lately with a 1-6 ATS mark in this spot since last season.
Chiefs at Colts (-2, 38½)
Both these teams lost in the Wild Card round at home in last season's playoffs, but it looks like Kansas City and Indianapolis will be sitting at home this January. The Chiefs and Colts have combined to win one game, with that victory coming by Kansas City last week against winless Minnesota as home underdogs. The Colts are riding a two-game ATS winning streak, including Monday night's cover at Tampa Bay as double-digit 'dogs in a seven-point loss.
Indianapolis is favored for the first time this season, as Curtis Painter makes his second start at quarterback for the Colts. The Chiefs have turned into a solid away underdog in Todd Haley's shaky tenure, cashing in nine of the last 13 opportunities. In each of the last three trips to Indianapolis, the game has finished 'under' the total, including a 19-9 victory by the Colts in 2010 as 7½-point favorites.
Cardinals at Vikings (-2½, 45½)
Minnesota jumps out to huge leads but can't hang on to them, especially in two home losses to Tampa Bay and Detroit. The Vikings squandered each of those games, followed up by a defeat at previously winless Kansas City as a road favorite. Minnesota welcomes in a 1-3 Arizona squad that hasn't tasted victory since an opening week win over Carolina.
The Cardinals are just 2-6 ATS the last eight games as a road underdog, but are 1-0 ATS in this spot with a Week 2 cover at Washington. Arizona has seen success against Minnesota with a 4-1 ATS mark the previous five meetings, including a cover as 7½-point 'dogs last season in a 27-24 defeat at the Metrodome. The Vikings are 9-5-1 ATS the last 15 games as home 'chalk,' as Minnesota desperately needs this game to get back into the division race with games against Chicago and Green Bay the next two weeks.
Bengals at Jaguars (-2, 37)
For the second time this season, Jacksonville will face a rookie quarterback, while throwing out a young gunslinger of their own with Blaine Gabbert making his third professional start. The Jaguars' offense ranks near last in the league in most offensive categories as Jack Del Rio's club has scored 23 combined points in the previous losses. Jacksonville hosts a Cincinnati team coming in with a surprising 2-2 record after rallying past Buffalo last week.
The Bengals are a perfect 3-0 ATS as an underdog this season, including covers at Cleveland and Denver. Cincinnati is actually in an advantageous spot over the next three games with contests against winless Indianapolis and struggling Seattle following Sunday's trip to North Florida. Extending back to 2009, the Bengals own a 15-7 ATS mark when receiving points, while the Jaguars are 3-11 ATS the last 14 games as a home favorite.
Las Vegas Money Moves
By Micah Roberts
One of the most curious lines of the week is the Steelers laying three points at home against the Titans. The Las Vegas Hilton had the Steelers as 8-point favorites for this game before the Week 4 games played. After the Titans rolled to an easy win at Cleveland and the Steelers sluggish loss at Houston, that number was sure to drop. Steelers' quarterback Ben Roethlisberger‘s status remained unclear keeping the game off most sports books' boards until Tuesday or Wednesday.
"We opened the game at minus-3 on Wednesday," said MGM Resorts sports book director Jay Rood. “We expect Big Ben to play, but not at his full capabilities because of his toe injury which takes a point or two away from where it might have been. Then you have to factor in the Steelers' poor offensive-line play and Rashard Mendenhall not practicing all week compounded with this team's overall struggles already this season; three is the right number.”
The number has to be correct because no one is jumping in on either side.
“So far we have had very little action on the game,” said Rood. “I think there’s Titans money to be had at either 4 of 3 ½ flat, but we‘ll see where the money takes us as we get closer to game day.”
While the Steelers (2-2) have looked very beatable on the road, they have had only one home game. In that game, they pounded the hapless Seahawks, 24-0.
The Steelers have traditionally been a very public team, but have let down their supporters against the spread in three of their four games thus far.
The regular cast of public favorites are being bet heavy already this week with small money.
"A popular combination this week is the Packers, Patriots and Saints," said Rood.
The three of those teams have combined to go 9-3 ATS, which obviously endears them to the public.
The Patriots were projected to be an 8½-point favorite before Week 4 games played out. Following their beatdown of the Raiders and the Jets horrendous Sunday night effort, they were opened up at -9½. Some Jets money was found and by Friday morning the game was back to -8½.
The Jets have won and covered three of their last five meetings, including a big one last year in the playoffs. However, this current Jets squad looks nothing like that playoff team, offensively or defensively. The hope for Jets bettors is that the true hatred in the rivalry brings out the best in them.
The Buccaneers have been an impressive road team over their last eight -- covering them all -- and the 49ers opened a short 1-point favorite. Sharp bettors have been much more impressed with the 49ers and have pushed the game to -3 (EV).
The Chargers opened as 5-point favorites for their road game at Denver and the line currently sits at -4. The total has also dropped in this game from 47 ½ to 46.
The Packers are 6-point road favorites at Atlanta this Sunday night. They were initially -3 before Sunday’s games and then re-opened Monday at -4 ½. It wasn’t too long before the sports books crossed the dead numbers and went to -6. So far, the public doesn’t care what the number is, it’s all Packers despite the Falcons being a completely different team at home than on the road.
The troubled Eagles opened as 2½-point favorites at Buffalo, were bet against to -2 and then bet on to where it now sits at -3 (EV). The public is mixed on this game giving the books great two-way action. It’s kind of a do-or-die situation for the Eagles and their season, one that had so many high hopes.
The Raiders have been a trendy choice among the Public for their game at Houston creating two-way action and keeping the home team as 6-point favorites. Both teams are 3-1 ATS. The Sharps haven’t shown their hand in this one, but the six points would seem attractive to take. Lucky’s sports books was the first to drop to -5½ Friday afternoon.
Despite Seattle’s 1-10 ATS road record on grass over their last 11, the Giants remain 9 ½-point favorites. The total has risen from 41½ to 43½.
NFL Betting Weather Report: Week 5
Weather could be the final piece of your handicapping puzzle. Find out which NFL games will be impacted by Mother Nature in Week 5:
Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars (-17, 37.5)
The forecast in Jacksonville is calling for thunderstorms and a 76 percent chance of rain. Winds will reach speeds of up to 20 mph, blowing ENE from sideline to sideline at EverBank Field. This total opened at 35.5 and has climbed two points as of Saturday afternoon.
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (+6.5, 51.5)
Winds will reach speed in the mid teens at Bank of America Stadium, blowing NE from corner to corner. The total has dropped from 52.5 to 51.5.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers (-2.5, 41.5)
Winds are expected to pick up in the second half at Candlestick Park. There will be a breeze, blowing West from sideline to sideline of speeds of up to 15 mph. The total has climbed from 40.5 to its current stand.
San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos (+3.5, 45.5)
There is a 10 percent chance of showers in the Mile High City Sunday. The forecast is calling for rain and game-time temperatures in the low 50s. The total has dropped from 47.5 to 45.5.
Sunday Night Football: Packers at Falcons
Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons (+5.5, 53)
THE STORY: Aaron Rodgers hasn’t stopped toying with defenses since he and the Green Bay Packers left the Georgia Dome with a stunningly one-sided win over the top-seeded Atlanta Falcons last January. The question is: Have the Falcons improved enough to slow him, or at least keep up offensively, this time around? The answer to both those questions will come Sunday night as Rodgers, off to a blistering start, returns to Atlanta looking to lead the defending Super Bowl champions to an 11th straight win against the Falcons.
LINE MOVES: Green Bay opened as a 3.5-point road favorite and has since been bet up to 5.5. The total opened at 54 and has dropped to 53 points.
ABOUT THE FALCONS (2-2): QB Matt Ryan’s new favorite target is first-round pick Julio Jones, who leads all rookies with 24 catches for 342 yards. Despite the addition of Jones, Atlanta is a middling 16th in scoring (22.5 ppg). The pass defense, which was the Achilles heel in the playoff loss to the Packers, also is still an issue (24th in the league, 275.5 ypg). Prized free agent DE Ray Edwards has yet to record a sack, and Atlanta hasn’t reached the quarterback in three games. Conversely, Atlanta's offensive line has struggled to protect Ryan, who has been sacked 13 times.
ABOUT THE PACKERS (4-0): The Packers, who lead in the NFL in scoring (37.0 ppg), have totaled a franchise-record 148 points over the first four games. Against Denver, Rodgers became the first player in NFL history to have 400 yards passing (408), four touchdown passes and two rushing touchdowns. He is first in the league in completion percentage (73.0) and second in touchdowns (12). WR Jordy Nelson, who signed a three-year contract extension this week, has three touchdowns in the first four games. The offense should be at full strength with both RB Ryan Grant (bruised kidney) and RT Bryan Bulaga (knee) expected to return. If there’s a fly in the ointment, it is Green Bay’s pass defense, which ranks next-to-last in the NFL (335.8 ypg).
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Packers CB Charles Woodson returned an interception for a touchdown last week. It was the 11th of his career – one shy of tying Hall of Famer Rod Woodson (no relation) for the most in NFL history.
2. Rodgers was 31 of 36 for 366 yards and three touchdowns in a 48-21 divisional-round win over Atlanta. He is 82 of 108 for 1,023 yards with seven touchdowns and one interception in three starts vs. the Falcons.
3. Ryan is 21-2 at home in three-plus years as a starter.
TRENDS:
* Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
* Packers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Underdog is 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Road team is 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.
PREDICTION: Packers 34, Falcons 24. Rodgers is absolutely on fire right now and the Falcons’ lack of a pass rush will be their downfall.
Green Bay at Atlanta
By Brian Edwards
The defending Super Bowl champs have picked up right where they left off last year, as they have raced out to a 4-0 record. The Packers went through Atlanta en route to the NFC title game in 2010, blasting the NFC’s No. 1 seed 48-21 as one-point road underdogs.
On that night, Aaron Rodgers tortured the Falcons secondary with 31 completions on 36 attempts for 366 yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions. He also rushed for a TD to cap a brilliant performance.
This time around, most betting shops have Green Bay (4-0 straight up, 3-1 against the spread) as a six-point road favorite with a total of 53. The Falcons are plus-220 on the money line (risk $100 to win $220).
Some offshore books are offering adjusted lines where you can back either Atlanta or Green Bay at varying numbers for different odds. For example, if you’re bullish on the Falcons tonight, you can them minus 3½ for a plus-350 return (risk $100 to win $350).
On the flip side, gamblers can back the Packers minus 8 ½ for a plus-130 payout or minus 10½ (+185) or minus 14½ (+300).
Mike McCarthy’s squad dealt out woodshed treatment last week, trouncing Denver by a 49-23 count as a 12-point home favorite. Rodgers threw for 408 yards and four touchdowns, as the Packers scored 42 points in the first three quarters. The Pro-Bowl QB also ran for a pair of scores, while Greg Jennings had seven receptions for 107 yards and one TD.
For the season, Rodgers is completing 73-percent of his throws for 1,325 yards with a 12/2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Jennings remains his favorite target, hauling in 25 catches for 366 yards and three TDs.
Atlanta (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS) is coming off a 30-28 non-covering win at Seattle as a six-point road ‘chalk.’ The Falcons raced out to a 24-7 halftime lead, only to allow the Seahawks to post the backdoor cover behind three TD passes from Tarvaris Jackson.
Matt Ryan connected on 28-of-42 passes for 291 yards and one TD without being intercepted. Rookie WR Julio Jones enjoyed a breakout performance with a career-high 11 receptions for 127 yards. Michael Turner rushed for 70 yards and a pair of scores.
Ryan, who threw a crucial pick-six when Atlanta was in field-goal range just before halftime of last year’s postseason loss to the Packers, is completing 62.2-percent of his throws this season for 1,135 yards and a 6/4 TD-INT ratio. In fairness, Ryan hasn’t been the recipient of the best pass protection and that could again be an issue tonight with veteran center Todd McClure ‘out’ again with a knee injury. McClure missed the first three games before returning last week and aggravating his surgically repaired knee.
Also on the injury front for Mike Smith’s team, pass-rushing specialist John Abraham is ‘questionable’ (hip) and DT Jonathan Babineaux is also a question mark (knee). On the bright side, LB Stephen Nicholas and RB Jason Snelling will play after sitting out at Seattle.
Green Bay has lost stud LB Nick Collins for the rest of the season, but RB Ryan Grant is back this week after missing the win over Denver.
Atlanta has played three of its first four games on the road, but it won its home game over Philadelphia in Week 2, 35-31. The Falcons rallied to beat the Eagles outright as 2 ½-point home underdogs.
During Mike Smith’s four-year tenure, Atlanta has compiled a 4-1 spread record in five games as a home underdog.
NBC will have television coverage from the Ga. Dome at 8:30 p.m. Eastern.
B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets
The Falcons own a 7-2 spread record in their last nine head-to-head meetings with the Packers.
I noted the adjusted lines for the side at offshores and there are also adjusted totals. For example, bettors can take ‘over’ 58 ½ for a plus-195 return or go with ‘under’ 46 ½ for a plus-210 payout.
The ‘over’ is 3-1 overall for both Atlanta and Green Bay this year. The ‘over’ is 5-2 in their last seven head-to-head confrontations.
Sportsbook.com has odds for the player who will score the first TD tonight. Green Bay WR Greg Jennings is the plus-500 favorite, while Atlanta RB Michael Turner is listed with plus-600 odds. More attractive odds of 12/1 (risk $100 to win $1,200) are available for Green Bay WRs Donald Driver and Jordy Nelson, in addition to Atlanta WR Julio Jones.
While many soured on him over the last few years (and for understandable reasons), I always maintained my admiration for Brett Favre, especially when it came to the way he so passionately played the game. But, as is often the case when sports icons get out of the spotlight, they can make themselves look extremely foolish with their words and actions, causing their admirers to lose much respect for the. Count me among those who were disgusted by Favre’s comments about Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay this past week. Favre told 790 The Zone in Atlanta, among other things, that “what surprised me was how long it took them [to win the Super Bowl with Rodgers under center].” Brett, my man, that’s such poor form. That’s such a statement of ignorance and jealousy. You’re better than that!
Props to Jets linebacker Bart Scott, who donated $36,000 to Eric LeGrand, the paralyzed former Rutgers player who is still in school at RU and whose mother recently lost her job. The 36K from Scott will help the LeGrand’s house become more wheel-chair friendly while he finishes his education in New Jersey.
If I had to pick a Super Bowl matchup right now, I’d go with the Ravens and the Packers.
Wondering when the NFL’s two unbeatens (Detroit and Green Bay) are going to square off? Round 1 will be on Thanksgiving Day at Ford Field and Round 2 will be at Lambeau Field in the cold on the final week of the regular season. Might that matchup be for the NFC North title and homefield advantage throughout the postseason?