NFL Betting News and Notes Week 5

Betting Recap - Week 4
By Daniel Dobish
VegasInsider.com

National Football League Week 4 Results

Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 8-6
Against the Spread 8-6
Home-Away
Straight Up 7-7
Against the Spread 7-7
Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 8-6

The largest underdogs to win straight up

Rams (+9.5, +350) at Cardinals, 17-13
Saints (+4, +165) at Chargers, 35-34
Bills (+3.5, +165) at Patriots, 16-0
Bears (+3.5, +160) vs. Lions, 17-14
Raiders (+3.5, +155) at Ravens, 28-27

The largest favorite to cover

Bengals (-7.5) vs. Dolphins, 22-7
Redskins (-7.5) vs. Browns, 31-20
Texans (-4) vs. Titans, 27-20

Chief Concerns

The Kansas City Chiefs were manhandled in the visit to the Steel City Sunday night, as the Pittsburgh Steelers won and covered easily, 43-14. The Chiefs slipped to 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS, including 0-2 SU/ATS on the road. Kansas City is averaging just 13.0 points per game (PPG) in two road outings while allowing 31.0 PPG. Kansas City has a much-needed bye in Week 5 before try head out on the road in Week 6 to meet the Oakland Raiders.

Hot in Hotlanta

The Atlanta Falcons added to the woes of the Carolina Panthers, embarrassing their defense and knocking 2015 NFL MVP QB Cam Newton (concussion) out of the game with a concussion. Falcons QB Matt Ryan and WR Julio Jones became the only pass-catch combo in NFL history to throw for 500 or more yards and rack up 300 or more yards receiving in the same game. The defending NFC Champion Panthers slipped to 1-3 SU/ATS, including 0-2 SU/ATS on the road. The Falcons grabbed a two-game lead in the NFC South, winning and covering for the third consecutive weekend. The 'over' is also a perfect 4-0 for the red-hot Falcs. eight times while picking him off twice to help the Vikes improve to 3-0 SU/ATS. Minnesota looks to keep it rolling with the New York Giants paying a visit to their new palace in downtown Minneapolis next Monday night.

Total Recall

The 'over' is 8-6 heading into Monday's battle between the New York Giants and Minnesota Vikings. In six games between AFC combatants the 'under' finished 4-2. In four games featuring two NFC squads the 'under' ended up 1-3 with the one remaining game. In four games pitting AFC and NFC teams together, the 'over' ended up 3-1. The 'over' is 35-27 through the first four weekends, and each week has featured a majority of the games going 'over'.

There were six games in Week 4 with a total of 48 or more points and the 'over' ended up cashing in five of the outings. Vegas expected a high-scoring battle in the Detroit Lions-Chicago Bears (48) outing, but that never came into fruition and was the outlier. The highest scoring game of the weekend for the second straight weekend featured Atlanta, who throttled Carolina 48-33. Their game finished with 22.5 more points than the total, and their game in Week 3 went 23 points over the total of 54.

Two games featured totals of just 40 points, and each of those games went 'over', too. One of those games was the battle between the Tennessee Titans-Houston Texans. While their game featured just 10 total points in the second half, and none in the final quarter, the game still went over by a touchdown. It was the first 'over' result in four games for Houston this season.

The 'over/under' went 1-1 in two primetime games in Week 4 with one pending. Officially, the 'over/under' is 7-5 (58.3%) through 12 games under the lights. In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games. In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56%) in 2013.

Injury Report

Broncos QB Trevor Siemian (shoulder) was forced out of the Week 4 game at Tampa Bay due to a shoulder injury, and the latest reports are that he suffered a sprained AC joint.

Cardinals QB Carson Palmer (concussion) left Sunday's game against Los Angeles in the second half after having his bell rung, and he was unable to return to the game. QB Drew Stanton finished up and might be counted on to start Thursday's game in San Francisco with a short week and not much time for Palmer to be cleared. RB Chris Johnson (groin) also left early due to a groin injury.

Panthers QB Cam Newton (concussion) was injured on helmet-to-helmet contact while attempting to get in on a two-point conversion and he has entered the league's mandated concussion protocol. He has an extra day to be cleared by an independent neurologist with the team not scheduled to play until next Monday against the Bucs.

Steelers WR Darrius Heyward-Bey (shouder) scored a touchdown Sunday night vs. Kansas City, but was forced out with a shoulder ailment.

Looking Ahead

The 49ers host the Cardinals on Thursday night in Week 5, and Arizona might be without their starting signal caller. Since the start of the 2009 season San Francisco is 10-4 SU and 9-5 ATS in their past 14 games against Arizona, including 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in seven matchups at home.

The Raiders host the division rival Chargers Sunday as they look to move to 4-1 SU/ATS on the season. Oakland swept the season series with the Bolts last year for the first time since the 2010 season. That's the last time the Raiders won three in a row in the season (2010-11). The Raiders are 3-3 SU over their past six meetings with the Bolts in the Black Hole, and 4-3 ATS over the past seven home meetings. Oakland is 5-2 ATS in the past seven meetings overall, and 10-4 ATS over the past 14 in this series.

In the third and final divisional game of Week 5, the Buccaneers travel to Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte to battl the Panthers Monday night. The Panthers have won six straight in this series, going 5-1 ATS during the span. They have won four of the past five meetings in Charlotte, and they're 5-3 ATS in their past eight at home against the Bucs. Carolina is 11-4 SU and 10-5 ATS in the past 15 meetings overall against Tampa Bay.

Opening Line Report - Week 5
By Marcus DiNitto
VegasInsider.com

Another week of football, another rash of injuries.

Starting quarterbacks Cam Newton, Carson Palmer and Trever Siemian all went down Sunday, prompting bookmakers to adjust their Week 5 numbers. Not all quarterback changes are created equal, of course, so we asked Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook oddsmaker Ed Salmons for his take on what this week’s injuries mean to next week’s lines.

Here’s a look at all the early point spreads for Week 5 of the NFL season. Lines are the Las Vegas consensus as of about 11 p.m. ET, with changes and differences among sports books also noted.

Thursday, Oct. 6

Arizona Cardinals (-1.5) at San Francisco 49ers

Palmer is in concussion protocol, and Arizona coach Bruce Arians said the team will be "very, very careful" with the quarterback and that it will be difficult for Palmer to be ready on a short week. CG Technology was the only sports book in Las Vegas with a number on this game Sunday night, dealing the Cardinals as 1.5-point favorites.

Should Palmer get the green light, expect the line to be in the 4 to 4.5 range, Salmons said.

After a loss at home to the Rams, the Cardinals are 1-3 on the season.

“They’re having such a hard time scoring this year. Last year they didn’t have that problem,” said Salmons. “I’m not sure what it is, but Palmer’s definitely getting older. Toward the end of last year, he really struggled. In the playoffs, he was awful against Green Bay and terrible against Carolina, and that’s continued into this year.”

Sunday, Oct. 9

Houston Texans at Minnesota Vikings (-5.5)

Houston’s only loss this season came at New England, yet the Westgate’s opening number of Minnesota -5 wasn’t big enough for the betting market’s tastes, and it was adjusted to -5.5. CG Technology, in fact, opened the game Minny -6.

Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins (-3.5)

There was a fairly even mix of 3.5s and 4s being dealt on this matchup of AFC also-rans.

New England Patriots (-10) at Cleveland Browns

Double-digit spreads are not common in the NFL. Double-digit spreads with the road team favored are downright rare. But ratings disparities don’t get any bigger than the Patriots with Tom Brady compared to the Browns with Cody Kessler.

CG on Sunday night hung 7.5 as its first number on this game, but that moved up the ladder to 9 within an hour.

New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5)

The Westgate opened Pitt -7, but action on the underdog Jets prompted a move to 6.5. CG Technology went the other way, opening 6 and moving to 6.5.

Washington Redskins at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5)

While 3.5 was the most popular number on this matchup of regional interest, Baltimore bounced between -4 and -4.5 at CG.

Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5) at Detroit Lions

This game opened a pick ‘em at the Westgate, but shot up to Philly -2.5 in under an hour. A few shops – the Wynn and CG – were dealing 1.5 as of this writing.

As short favorites in Chicago, the Lions lost their third straight game, giving the Bears their first win of the season. The undefeated Eagles will be fresh off a bye.

Said Salmons, “After the way Detroit looked today, the public will definitely be on Philadelphia, so Philadelphia had to be favorite in that game.”

Chicago Bears at Indianapolis Colts (-4.5)

The Westgate opened Indy -5, William Hill went -4, and the two shops met in the middle at 4.5. There were still plenty of +5s available for dog bettors Sunday night.

Atlanta Falcons at Denver Broncos (-5.5)

Atlanta has won three straight and has looked good doing it, but before we get too excited about the Falcons, let’s remember they started the season 5-0 last season before a hard crash back to reality. A win at Denver, though, would go a long way to legitimize Dan Quinn’s club.

“This will be a good test,” said Salmons. “If any team can go to Denver and play with Denver, that can kind of prove what you’re about …. You would think if anyone can score against Denver, it would be Atlanta, but no one seems to score against these guys.”

As for the Broncos’ quarterback situation, there’s a difference of “maybe a point, at most” between Siemian and Paxton Lynch, according to Salmons. In contrast to the Cardinals and Panthers games, bookmakers were not reluctant to post a number of this game, and lines ranged from 5 to 6.5.

Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams (-3 even)

The Bills have won two straight (vs. Arizona, at New England), and the Rams have won three in a row (vs. Seattle, at Tampa, at Arizona). CG opened this game -1.5 but moved to -2.5 after a few hours of Sunday night wagering. The Westgate offered the Rams -2.5 on its week-in-advance lines, but was quickly bet to -3 even, Salmons said.

San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders (-4.5)

With a 3-1 start, Oakland has earned the respect of bettors, who pushed the Raiders from -3.5 to -4.5 in early wagering at the Westgate. Plenty of 4s remained on betting boards Sunday night in Vegas.

Cincinnati Bengals at Dallas Cowboys (pick ‘em)

This line varied from either side being a 1-point favorite as Week 5 wagering began. The game presents Dallas an opportunity to earn a quality win. The Cowboys are putting up points and winning on the road, but their resume so far includes wins over Washington, Chicago and San Francisco – not exactly a murderers’ row.

“Their defense doesn’t look like playoff-type defense,” said Salmons. “It looks like you can score points against them.”

The Bengals, meanwhile, pulled themselves to 2-2 with an easy win at home Thursday over Miami.

“Cincinnati still gets a lot of respect from the oddsmakers,” Salmons added. ”(Next Sunday’s line) is saying that Cincinnati is the better team.”

New York Giants at Green Bay Packers (-7)

Quite a tough spot the NFL schedule makers put the Giants in next week. New York, off a short week since they play at Minnesota on Monday night, has to travel to Green Bay, which had a bye in Week 4. Plus, it’s the second leg of a back-to-back road situation for the Giants.

To that add this: The Packers are 8-2 SU and 8-1-1 ATS after a bye under Mike McCarthy.

Monday, Oct. 10

Tampa Bay Bucs at Carolina Panthers (-6)

CG opened Carolina -6, but the book was alone in accepting wagers on this game Sunday night. Most shops are waiting to hear more about Newton, who was concussed by a big hit as he lollygagged into the end zone on a two-point conversion late in the Panthers’ loss to Atlanta.

Should Derek Anderson start in place of Newton, Carolina will probably lay less than a field goal next Monday night, according to Salmons.

Salmons said of the Panthers, who are off to a disappointing 1-3 start, “They’re the opposite of the Cardinals – they can’t stop anyone.”

He added, “There’s a lot history that shows the team that lost the Super Bowl that hadn’t done something in years has a drop off, and they’re definitely going through it right now. But it’s early in the year, I wouldn’t write any of these teams off.”

NFL Week 5

Titans (1-3) @ Dolphins (1-3) — Tennessee fired its special teams coach Monday after LW’s debacle in Houston. Titans are 10-18 as road underdogs last 4+ years, 1-1 this year- they have not allowed an offensive TD in second half of last three games, outscoring foes 23-10- they lost 38-10 at home to Miami LY, are 2-4 in last six series games, 1-3 here, with last visit in 2012. Over last decade, Dolphins are dismal 11-27 as home favorite, 0-1 this year- this is first of four strait home games for Fish (next road game, Nov 13). Miami is -7 in turnovers in its last three games. AFC East teams are 5-5 vs spread in non-divisional games, 0-1 as a favorite. AFC South teams are 5-7, 2-4 as underdogs.

Patriots (3-1) @ Browns (0-4) — Brady is back at QB here after his suspension; Patriots are 6-2 vs team Belichick used to coach (36-44 in five years, 1991-95), 2-2 here, with last visit in ’10. New England is 4-12 as road favorites last 3+ years; they nipped Arizona 23-21 (+6) in only road game so far this year, with Garoppolo at QB. Browns are 0-4 this year, starting three QBs; they’re 2-2 vs spread, with last three games going over total. Cleveland lost 25-20 (+6.5, led 20-0) in only home game so far, vs Ravens- they trailed only one of four games at halftime, but have been outscored 73-17 in second half of games. Patriots are 1-1 as a favorite this year. AFC North teams are 6-6 vs spread, 1-2 as underdogs.

Jets (1-3) @ Steelers (3-1) — New York turned ball over 11 times (-9) in last two games; they’ve been outscored 51-30 in second half of games, with one TD on 21 drives since 37-31 win at Buffalo. Jets are 15-19-3 in last 37 games as a road underdog, 1-1 this year. Steelers won 24-16/43-14 in home games this year; they’re 14-6 vs spread in last 20 games as home favorite, 2-0 this year. Pitt hasn’t played game this year decided by less than 8 points; they’re 19-5 in last 24 games vs Jets; nine of last 11 series totals were 37 or less. Jets lost last nine visits to Steel City, losing last one 27-10 in ’12. AFC East teams are 5-5 vs spread in non-divisional games, 4-5 as an underdog.

Texans (3-1) @ Vikings (4-0) — Minnesota is on 17-2 spread run, 4-0 this year, after Monday’s win over Giants; Vikings won 17-14/24-10 in two home games this year- they’re 10-2 as a home favorite under Zimmer, 7-0 in last seven tries. Texans’ offense was rolling early LW, with O’Brien calling plays, until TE Fiedorowicz (knee) was injured. Houston lost 27-0 in Foxboro in its only road game; they’re 5-6-1 as road dogs under O’Brien. Minnesota won all three series games, by 6-7-17 points, in three series games; Texans lost 28-21 in their only visit here, 8 years ago. AFC South teams are 5-7 vs spread outside its division, 2-4 as underdogs, 1-3 on road. NFC North teams are 5-5 its spread n non-divisional games, 1-2 as home favorites.

Redskins (2-2) @ Ravens (3-1) — Short road trip for Washington squad that scored 60 points in winning last two games after 0-2 start; they’ve got six takeaways (+4) in last two games, winning despite being outgunned by 54-79 yards. Redskins are 3-2 vs Ravens, winning last meeting 31-28 in OT four years ago; Skins lost 24-10 in last visit here, in ’08. Washington won only road game 29-27 (+4.5) at Giants two weeks ago. Four Raven games this year were decided by total of 14 points; last two were decided by total of 3 points. Baltimore NFC East teams are 6-3 vs spread in non-division games, 2-2 as underdogs, 2-1 on road. AFC North teams are 6-6 vs spread outside its division, 3-2 as home favorites.

Eagles (3-0) @ Lions (1-3) — Philly sprinted out to 3-0 start behind rookie QB Wentz, but then had bye; will it kill their momentum? Eagles have yet to turn ball over (+6), winning 29-14 in only road game, at Chicago. Philly is 15-2 in last 17 post-bye games (2-2 in last four); going back to 1990, they’re 13-3 vs spread as favorite in post-bye games (most of that was under Reid). Eagles are 7-2 in last nine games vs Detroit, but lost 45-14 to Lions LY (TY was 430-227, Lions). Iggles are 2-1-1 in last four visits here. Detroit lost its last three games, by 1-7-3 points; underdogs are 4-0 vs spread in their games this year- they lost 16-15 to Titans in only home game. Since 2011, Lions are 1-7-1 vs spread as a home underdog.

Bears (1-3) @ Colts (1-3) — Both teams are struggling badly; Indy is first team not to have bye after London game- they requested it that way. Colts have 12 TDs on 41 drives, but needed 63-yards in last 1:20 to nip San Diego for its only win- three of their four games went over. Indy had three takeaways in their win, a total of one in their three losses- they’re 3-5 in last eight games as home favorites. Bears got first win LW, at home over Lions, holding Detroit without offensive TD. Chicago won six of last eight series games, winning last three visits here, by 4-14-16 points; Bears lost 23-14/31-17 on road this year; they’re 6-4-1 in last 11 games as a road dog. NFC North teams are 5-5 vs spread outside its division, 3-2 as road dogs. AFC South teams are 5-7 vs spread, 3-2 as home favorites.

Falcons (3-1) @ Broncos (4-0) — Atlanta has NFL’s top offense, gaining over 7 yards/play, scoring 38 pts/game- they scored 93 points in last two games, but also allow 31 pts/game. Falcons are 6-1 in last seven games as a road underdog. Broncos won/covered all four games, winning last three by 12+ points; they’re 2-4-1 as home favorites under Kubiak, 1-0 this year. Bengals are only one of four Denver foes to average 5+ yards/pass vs Denver- they threw for 5.4 yds/pass. Atlanta has thrown for 7+ yards/pass in every game. Denver won seven of last nine series games, winning three of last four here; Falcons’ last visit here was in 2004. AFC West teams are 9-5 vs spread outside the division, 3-2 as home favorites. NFC South teams are 4-6, but 3-1 as road underdogs. Over is 4-0 in Atlanta games, 3-1 in Denver games this season.

Bills (2-2) @ Rams (3-1) — Buffalo won its last two games; they’ve turned ball over only twice this year (+6), but scored only two offensive TDs on 18 drives in splitting two road games. Bills are 8-5-1 in last 14 games as a road dog- they caught break LW, playing Patriots when NE’s only QB was playing with injured thumb. Rams won last three games (two on road) with +6 turnover ratio; they’ve only led one game at half this year and that was 6-3 over Seattle. Underdogs covered all four LA games this season. Bills won five of last seven series games; they were 2-0 in St Louis, lost last two games here vs Rams. NFC West teams are 3-5 vs spread outside the division, 1-2 as home favorites. AFC East teams are 5-5, 2-3 as road underdogs.

Chargers (1-3) @ Raiders (3-1) — San Diego led all four of its games in 4th quarter, led all four games by double digits, but lost three of the four. Chargers allowed 14 TDs on 45 drives, are allowing 19.5 second half points/game. Average total in San Diego games this year: 57.3. Underdogs are 4-0 vs spread in Raider games this year; all four Oakland games were decided by 7 or less points- they lost 35-28 at Atlanta in only home game. Oakland swept Chargers 37-29/23-20 LY, after losing five of previous six series games; San Diego is 3-2 in its last five visits here. NFL-wide, home favorites are 4-9 vs spread this year in divisional games. Over is 3-1 in both teams’ games this year. San Diego 19-9-1 in last 30 games as a road dog (1-1 this year). Since 2008, Oakland is 6-14 as a home favorite.

Bengals (2-2) @ Cowboys (3-1) — Dallas won/covered its last three games; they’ve only turned ball over twice in four games (+3) despite having a rookie QB. Cowboys ran ball for 393 yards in last two games- since 2010, they’re 9-28 as a home favorite. Bengals had three extra days to prep after beating Miami LW; they’ve run for less than 80 yards in three of four games this year. Dallas is 7-4 in series, winning 31-22/20-19 in last two meetings; Bengals are 1-5 in Dallas, with only win in ’88, last visit in ’08. AFC North teams are 6-6 vs spread in non-division games, 1-2 as road underdogs. NFC East teams are 6-3 vs spread, 3-1 as home favorites outside their division. Have to wonder if Bengals losing coordinators Gruden-Jackson-Zimmer over last few years has drained brain power in their coaching staff?

Giants (2-2) @ Packers (3-1) — Last 7+ years, Green Bay is 31-20-1 as a home favorite, 0-1 this year; Packers are 9-1 vs spread in last ten post-bye games, 7-2 in last nine when favored. Pack was held to 4.4 yards/pass in only loss, at Minnesota. Giants are on short week after loss in Minnesota Monday; NY has only one takeaway, is -8 in turnovers and was just 2-12 on third down vs Vikings. Giants are 5-7-1 in last 13 games as a road underdog. Big Blue smarting after consecutive losses; they’ve won last three games with Packers- they’re 3-1 in last four visits here, with last one 2011 playoff game. NFC East teams are 6-3 vs spread outside the division, 1-1 as road dogs. NFC North teams are 5-5 vs spread, 1-2 as home favorites. Last two weeks, Giants allowed 8.2/7.3 yards/pass attempt; they’ll need to do better than that here.

Buccaneers (1-3) @ Panthers (1-3) — Unclear yet if Newton will start here; if not, backup QB Anderson is 20-25 as an NFL starter, just 2-0 since 2010. Carolina turned ball over nine times (-5) in last three games; they’ve led three of four games at the half, but are 1-3. Tampa Bay allowed 34.7 pts/game in losing last three games; they’re -9 in turnovers, were outscored 46-19 in second half last three weeks. Carolina is 13-5-2 in last 20 games as a home favorite. Tampa Bay is 10-8 in last 18 games as road dog. Carolina won last six series games, four by 14+ points; Panthers swept Bucs 37-23/38-10 LY, with 8 takeaways (+5) in two games and two defensive TDs, with five scoring drives less than 50 yards. Bucs lost last three visits here by 21-2-28 points. Tampa Bay has lost field position in all four games, three by 7+ points; their special teams need improvement and they need to protect the ball better.

Armadillosports.com

NFL Week 5 Essentials
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com

We enter Week 5 with just three undefeated teams and a single winless one, so every team has to feel they’re close to clicking and really taking off since few have really gained separation. Although teams like the Raiders and Rams have a shot at a surprising 4-1 start, most eyes will be on high-profile expected playoff contenders like the Panthers, Colts and Jets all trying to emulate the Cardinals in avoiding opening 1-4. Seattle, Kansas City, Jacksonville and New Orleans are on bye. Here’s what else you need to know before wagering on Week 5:

Houston at Minnesota: The Texans prevailed in their first game since likely losing J.J. Watt for the season, scoring a season-high 27 points. Will Fuller played hero with a game-winning punt return, Brock Osweiler threw for two touchdowns for the first time since the season-opener and they came out of the win over Tennessee with a two-game edge on everyone in the AFC South. They’ll enter the new US Bank Stadium, where Minnesota’s defense has shined in high-profile night games against the Packers and Giants, looking to prove they can move the ball on the road since their only showing thus far was that 27-0 Thursday night debacle at New England. The Vikings have surrendered 50 points (12.5) over their four wins, ranking second in scoring defense while registering 15 sacks and 11 takeaways. Coming off a short week won’t affect much since they stayed home sleeping in their beds, so this will be a nice test in a potential letdown spot. The Texans have never beaten Minnesota, coming in 0-3, suffering the last loss in 2012.

Tennessee at Miami: All three of the Titans losses have been one-possession games where they felt they gave away chances and created opportunities for opponents. Special teams coordinator Bobby April paid with his job, but Tennessee’s struggles have been a combination of all units falling short. They’re a fairly young group still lacking true leaders, so it will be interesting to see whether they can rebound on the road in South Florida against another team out to avoid a 1-4 start. The Dolphins had a couple of extra days since they opened Week 4 with a Thursday night loss in Cincinnati where they showed little offensive chemistry. RB Arian Foster (groin) back at practice on Wednesday and hope he’ll suit up for his home debut. Since they’ve played three of the NFL’s better teams on the road at Seattle, New England and Cincy, Miami is likely right where it is supposed to be record-wise, but begins a stretch of four consecutive home games that it must make good use of to have any chance at a winning season. These teams are both in the bottom-five in turnover differential, so it would be fitting if that stat winds up determining a winner here. Miami won in Nashville last year 38-10, sacking Marcus Mariota six times and intercepting him twice. The Dolphins are hoping Hurricane Matthew cooperates enough that this game goes on as scheduled.

New England at Cleveland: Tom Brady’s suspension is over, so we’ll get to see him take a meaningful snap for the first time since the Broncos picked off his two-point conversion attempt in January’s AFC Championship game. That play followed Rob Gronkowski’s last touchdown in an NFL game, since the tight end missed the entire preseason and has just one reception so far, struggling with a hamstring issue. Coming off being shut out for the first time since 2006, the Patriots should rebound against a Browns defense that ranks next-to-last in the AFC in points allowed 28.8 . New England also gets DE Rob Ninkovich back from suspension to face a Cleveland offense that will again be led by rookie QB Cody Kessler, who will make his third straight start since Josh McCown (shoulder) remains sidelined. The Browns are 1-14 SU (3-11-1 ATS) in their last 15 games and lost their final contest of the 2015 regular season as a double-digit home underdog to Pittsburgh, failing to cover +13 in a 28-12 setback. New England has won five of the last six in this series.

N.Y. Jets at Pittsburgh: After throwing three more interceptions, Ryan Fitzpatrick has now thrown a league-high 10 and New York is at the bottom in giveaways (13) and turnover margin (-10). It’s not entirely Fitzpatrick’s fault, but most of it does fall on his shoulders, which means he could be on a short leash despite Todd Bowles’ continued confidence in his quarterback. Geno Smith hasn’t taken a snap in a regular-season game since his only appearance last year in a 34-20 loss at Oakland on Nov. 1. Pittsburgh has won its last six home games, suffering its last loss on that same Nov. 1 date, Week 8 of the 2015 season. Le’Veon Bell accounted for 178 yards in his return from a three-game suspension but will have to deal with a Jets run defense that ranks second in the NFL in yards allowed per game (70.3) and per carry (3.1). Antonio Brown comes off a two-touchdown night in Sunday’s 43-14 rout of Kansas City and is likely salivating at squaring off against Pittsburgh native Darrelle Revis, who has allowed 81 percent of passes in his direction to be completed and had been tormented by the deep ball even before his latest hamstring tweak, which has him questionable for this one. RB Matt Forte (leg) should play, but the prognosis isn’t as positive for WR Eric Decker (rotator cuff), who is listed as doubtful. The Jets are 1-9 in Pittsburgh and 5-19 all-time against the Steelers, but did win the most recent meeting (20-13, Nov. 2014).

Washington at Baltimore: These teams essentially share a market and have to compete for attention while also being forced to read about one another all the time, so this won’t be your typical interconference matchup. There have only been five meetings since the Ravens were established 20 years ago and all but one of the games have been decided by seven or fewer points. Washington won the 2012 meeting in OT to pull to within 3-2 in the series, but will be playing in Baltimore for just the second time. The Ravens come off their first loss of the season and have been involved in games solely decided by a single possession. The over has prevailed in all four ‘Skins games thus far and the team’s rush defense and points-per-game average ranks among the league’s bottom-five. Baltimore let go of veteran Justin Forsett this week, but look to have turned the page behind Terrance West and Buck Allen.

Philadelphia at Detroit: The Eagles come off a bye week, so all the good vibes and momentum they’ve acquired in becoming the league’s surprise team carried over into October. They’ll hit the road for just the second time this season, but come off dominating a Steelers squad that they just watched annihilate Andy Reid’s Chiefs last Sunday night, so doubt won’t be something they’re packing on this trip. Philly’s defense is strong enough to do the heavy lifting and Carson Wentz looks proficient enough as a rookie to keep the offense from being a liability. Eagles tackle Lane Johnson’s suspension has kicked in, so they’re catching a break with it looking likely that top pass-rusher Ezekiel Ansah (ankle) will miss another game. The Lions are hoping top LB Deandre Levy (quad) returns, but are preparing to be without TE Eric Ebron (ankle). Philadelphia is 7-2 in its last nine against Detroit, but has lost two of the last three meetings after a 45-14 setback at Ford Field last season.

Chicago at Indianapolis: The Bears have seen Brian Hoyer deliver a win and a pair of 300-yard passing games since taking over for the injured Jay Cutler, who is doubtful again here due to a thumb injury. They’re hopeful to hang around despite already suffering so many personnel losses on offense, having proven they can still move the ball enough to win with Alshon Jeffery, Eddie Royal and Zach Miller as primary targets against a defense that has surrendered 31.3 points per game. Indy will get DE Arthur Jones from suspension and has a healthier group in place, but it got no bye upon returning from its loss to the Jaguars in London, so we’ll see if the team’s legs will hold up all four quarters. Chicago has actually dominated the last two games in this series by a 70-34.

Atlanta at Denver: The Falcons take their three-game winning streak into Denver for a true test of where they are on both sides of the ball. Although they’ve got a two-game edge on the rest of the NFC South and averaging 38.0 points per game, they’ve played some of the worst defensive teams in the league thus far and are about to take aim at one of the best. The asterisk of course, is what they accomplished last week by pouring in 48 to rout Carolina, but the Panthers secondary has been a major disappointment. Matt Ryan has been tremendous and leads all quarterbacks in passing yards, touchdown passes, QB rating and yards per attempt. Aqib Talib has a long history against Julio Jones from his days with the Bucs, so that should be an tremendous matchup. The Broncos are still unsure whether Trevor Siemian will be able to make it back from a shoulder injury, increasing the likelihood that first-round pick Paxton Lynch will make his first career start. Demariyus Thomas, who caught Lynch’s first TD pass last week in Tampa, is still dealing with a hip issue, so Denver could have trouble keeping pace if its defense doesn’t rise to the challenge. The Broncos have won seven of nine over Atlanta dating back to 1985, but lost the last matchup in 2012 in addition to the last meeting at Mile High back in 2004.

Buffalo at Los Angeles: The Rams opened the season by getting blanked 28-0 by the 49ers, but have utilized a perfect run since and are actually now favored to take a lead in the NFC West over idle Seattle. To do so, they must handle business at home against Buffalo, who probably could’ve flown cross-country on the cloud they were on after blanking New England at Foxboro last week. The Bills will need their defense to rise up again since L.A. has scored fewer points than 29 of the other 31 teams but has persevered thanks to its defense’s ability to win up front and make plays in the back. It’s no surprise that this has surpassed Texans/Vikings the game with the lowest total since this will likely be a game dictated by the ground attack and won by whoever makes the fewest mistakes.

San Diego at Oakland: This AFC West clash joins the Monday-nighter as the only divisional games this week, and coming off a brutal letdown of a home loss, looms as a must-win for the visitors. The Chargers literally fumbled a game away against New Orleans and have suffered through more heartbreak due to season-ending injuries and grueling self-induced meltdowns than anyone. CB Jason Verrett was the latest key Charger lost for the season, which should help Derek Carr and the Raiders passing game identify mismatches given all their weapons. Oakland RB Latavius Murray may not be able to play after injuring his foot, which would give rookie Jalen Richard a chance to excel. The Raiders swept the season series from San Diego in 2015 for the first time since 2010.

Cincinnati at Dallas: All eyes here will be on the availability of star WR Dez Bryant (knee), who looks like he may miss his second straight game. My contention is that it will be far more vital to this game’s outcome if RB Jeremy Hill will play for the Bengals. Hill, who leads the team with three TDs and 221 rushing yards but was limited in practice Thursday, is struggling with a chest injury. This game should be decided in the trenches and on the ground, so not having a bruising back like Hill around to allow Giovani Bernard and Rex Burkhead to remain in their roles is going to be essential. Burkhead himself is dealing with a hamstring issue. The Cowboys will be down standout young guard La’el Collins, but should see LT Tyron Smith return from a back injury that kept him out last week. Rookie QB Dak Prescott proved he can win a game without Bryant on the road, although it helped the Cowboy cause that the 49ers lost multiple key defensive players in last week’s win. Dallas has won three of four against Cincy this century, including a 20-19 win in the last meeting in 2012 on a Dan Bailey last-second field goal. The Bengals are playing for the first time at Jerry World and haven’t won in the DFW area since 1988.

N.Y. Giants at Green Bay: Even though the offensive performance New York put on display Monday against mighty Minnesota was a dud, Odell Beckham, Jr.’s theatrics and the fallout from his latest meltdown won’t do anything to hurt ratings in this prime-time affair. Love him or hate him, he’s a magnet for controversy and is set to visit Lambeau Field, where Aaron Rodgers will undoubtedly put pressure on New York’s offense to match his production. If Beckham continues to feel slighted and the Giants struggle, the situation could become combustible. The Packers are looking to strike the match while coming off an early bye week, likely getting key defensive players Clay Matthews, Letroy Guion, Morgan Burnett and Datone Jones back after they missed the win over Detroit. The Giants are hopeful Rashad Jennings can return from a thumb injury after missing Monday’s loss as they attempt to win their fourth straight in this series. These teams have a rich history since New York ended the Brett Favre era with an OT win in the 2007 NFC Championship game. Rodgers beat Eli Manning in their first two head-to-head meetings, but hasn’t won since 2011 and was absent for the most recent encounter in ’13, which means the probable Hall-of-Fame QBs are 2-2 against one another.

Tampa Bay at Carolina: Although he has an extra day to make it through concussion protocol, Cam Newton hadn’t practiced through Thursday. Derek Anderson is preparing to make his first start since Dec. 14, 2014 after throwing a pair of TD passes and two picks last week in Atlanta. He last opened under center after Newton’s car accident scare, ironically, against Tampa Bay. Although he’s been on the roster since 2011 and would be playing his 19th game with the Panthers, this would only be his third start. He’s 2-0, beating the Bucs twice in ’14. Having veteran RB Jonathan Stewart back would aid matters for whoever the quarterback is, but he’s just working his way back from a hamstring injury and may still be a week away. Tampa Bay RB Doug Martin is also expected to miss his third straight game with a hammy, so the diminutive Jacquizz Rodgers will be the likely starter. Key defensive lineman Gerald McCoy (calf) and Noah Spence (shoulder) are doubtful for Tampa Bay, so the winner of this key Monday night game may wind up being the team that’s able to adapt best. Both NFC South squads are legitimately banged up, but since the NFL grind has no compassion, one will slip to 1-4 and take up residence in last place. Jameis Winston is 0-2 against Carolina, which has won eight of 10 in this series.

Pick Six - Week 5
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

U-G-L-Y. That’s what Week 4 turned out to be with the underdog Jets, 49ers, and Buccaneers all losing at home. Atlanta was the lone winner with its shootout victory over Carolina, as we turn the page to Week 5.

Texans at Vikings (-6½, 40)

Houston
Record: 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS, 3-1 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 20/1

Houston continues to win at home, improving to 3-0 at NRG Stadium after holding off Tennessee last week, 27-20 as four-point favorites. Rookie Will Fuller’s 67-yard punt return for a touchdown broke a 20-20 third quarter tie, while the Texans have yet to allow a touchdown in the second half at home this season. However, Houston has yet to win on the road as the Texans were blanked at New England in Week 3 by a 27-0 count. The Texans posted a 3-4 ATS mark as a road underdog last season, while grabbing an upset as 10-point underdogs at Cincinnati last November.

Minnesota
Record: 4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS, 3-1 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 10/1

In spite of losing their starting quarterback and running back, the Vikings keep clicking and remain one of the league’s two unbeaten teams. The Vikings tripped up the Giants on Monday night, 24-10 as 3½-point home favorites as Minnesota has allowed only 50 points in four games. Since losing at San Francisco in the 2015 season opener, the Vikings have compiled a remarkable 18-2 ATS record in the past 20 contests, including an 8-3 SU and 9-2 ATS mark at home.

Best Bet: Houston +6½

Patriots (-10½, 47) at Browns

New England
Record: 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS, 3-1 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 4/1

The Patriots survived the first four weeks without Tom Brady, as the star quarterback returns following his suspension for Deflategate. Brady and the offense try to get on track after suffering a 16-0 shutout to the Bills in Week 3 as a 3½-point favorite, as New England was limited to below 300 yards offensively. The defense lifted New England during Brady’s ban by allowing 21 points or less in three of those contests, resulting in a 3-1 mark to the UNDER. The Patriots have struggled the last two seasons as a road favorite, compiling a 3-10 ATS record, including a 1-6 ATS run the past seven in this situation.

Cleveland
Record: 0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS, 3-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 5000/1

The Browns haven’t received many breaks this season, but are creeping closer towards picking up that elusive first victory. One week after falling in overtime at Miami, Cleveland erased an early 14-0 deficit at Washington to take a 20-17 fourth quarter lead. However, the Redskins scored the final two touchdowns as the Browns failed to cash as 7½-point underdogs in a 31-20 defeat. Cleveland returns to FirstEnergy Stadium for its second home game this season after blowing a 20-0 advantage in a 25-20 defeat to Baltimore in Week 2 as four-point ‘dogs. Last season, the Browns posted a 1-3 ATS mark as a double-digit underdog, as Cleveland faces New England for the first time since a 27-26 loss at Gillette Stadium as 9½-point ‘dogs in 2013.

Best Bet: Cleveland +10½

Redskins at Ravens (-4, 45)

Washington
Record: 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS, 4-0 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 60/1

The battle of the Beltway takes place for the first time since 2012 when the Redskins knocked off the Ravens in overtime, 31-28. Washington has erased an 0-2 start by picking up consecutive victories over the Giants and Browns to reach the .500 mark. Quarterback Kirk Cousins topped the 300-yard mark in each of Washington’s two losses, but has thrown five touchdowns and been intercepted just once in the last two wins. Since the beginning of 2015, the Redskins have produced a solid 10-6 ATS record as an underdog, but Washington owns an 0-4 SU/ATS mark as a road ‘dog under Jay Gruden against AFC opponents.

Baltimore
Record: 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS, 2-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 40/1

The Ravens suffered their first loss of the season last Sunday in a 28-27 setback to the Raiders as 3½-point favorites. Baltimore overcame a 14-3 deficit to take a 27-21 lead in the final minutes, but the Raiders came out on top thanks to Michael Crabtree’s third touchdown catch of the day. The Ravens have not been a productive home favorite since 2015 by compiling a 2-7-1 ATS mark in the past 10 games at M&T Bank Stadium when laying points. Joe Flacco has won six of his last seven home games against NFC foes since 2012, but Baltimore is 2-2-1 ATS in this situation as a favorite.

Best Bet: Washington +4

Falcons at Broncos (-6, 47)

Atlanta
Record: 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS, 4-0 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 25/1

Following an opening week loss to Tampa Bay, the Falcons have roared back with three consecutive victories to take over first place in the NFC South. Atlanta won only one divisional game last season, but the Falcons have doubled that total in the last 13 days with victories over the Saints and Panthers. Atlanta dropped 45 points on New Orleans in Week 3, but put up 48 points in a 48-33 triumph over the defending NFC champions last week. Matt Ryan torched Carolina’s defense for 503 yards and four touchdowns, including 300 of those yards to wide receiver Julio Jones. The Falcons continue to cash as an underdog under Dan Quinn by owning a fantastic 8-2 SU/ATS record when receiving points since 2015.

Denver
Record: 4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS, 3-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 8/1

The defending Super Bowl champions haven’t skipped a beat this season by winning their first four games. Since rallying past Carolina in Week 1, the Broncos have won each of their past three contests by double-digits each, including a 27-7 blowout of Tampa Bay last Sunday. Quarterback Trevor Siemian left last week’s victory with a shoulder injury, but the former Northwestern standout is expected to start on Sunday. The Broncos have struggled as a home favorite since last October, posting a 1-5-1 ATS mark in the last seven in this role with the lone win coming against the Colts in Week 2.

Best Bet: Denver -6

Bills at Rams (-2, 39½)

Buffalo
Record: 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS, 2-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 60/1

The Bills have rebounded from an 0-2 start to pick up victories the last two weeks against the Cardinals and Patriots in the underdog role. Buffalo pitched a 16-0 shutout of New England in Week 4 as the Bills’ offense put up 378 yards, including 246 yards through the air from Tyrod Taylor. The defense has held three of its four opponents to 18 points or less, while both road games have finished UNDER the total. Buffalo has covered in three of five opportunities as a road underdog of three points or less since last season, but the Bills have lost each of their past two road games against NFC opponents.

Los Angeles
Record: 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS, 3-1 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 60/1

The biggest September turnaround took place in Southern California as the Rams rebounded from an ugly shutout loss at San Francisco to win three straight games. The Rams own an impressive 2-0 division record following victories over the Seahawks and Cardinals, two playoff teams from last season. Los Angeles has been outgained in all four games this season, but own a +8 turnover margin during its three-game winning streak. Under Jeff Fisher, the Rams have compiled an 8-11 ATS mark in the role of a favorite, while being favored at the Coliseum for the first time since their move to Los Angeles.

Best Bet: Buffalo +2

Bengals (-1, 45) at Cowboys

Cincinnati
Record: 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS, 2-2 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 30/1

The Bengals avoided a 1-3 start by beating the Dolphins last Thursday night, 22-7 to reach the .500 mark. Cincinnati scored six times, but found the end zone only once as A.J. Green hauled in 10 receptions for 173 yards and the Bengals’ only touchdown. The offense has been productive from a yardage standpoint, but in two games they have been limited to one touchdown. Since the start of last season, Cincinnati has been nearly automatic away from Paul Brown Stadium by cashing in nine of the past 10 road games.

Dallas
Record: 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS, 2-2 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 20/1

The Cowboys have rebounded nicely since a one-point loss in the season opener to the Giants by winning three consecutive games. Dallas hasn’t faced great quarterbacks in the last two weeks (Brian Hoyer and Blaine Gabbert), but the Cowboys managed to pull off victories in the favorite role against Chicago and San Francisco. The Cowboys hope to get wide receiver Dez Bryant back on the field after missing last week’s game with a knee injury. Dallas is facing its first AFC foe this season, as the Cowboys dropped three of four interconference games last season, but all three losses were without quarterback Tony Romo.

Best Bet: Cincinnati -1

NFL: Streak, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

Atlanta Falcons at Denver Broncos

The Denver Broncos defense has picked up where it left off after last season's run to the Super Bowl. They'll face a tough test on Sunday when they host the high-flying Atlanta Falcons, who lead the NFL in points per game (38).

The Falcons are now 3-1 after a 48-33 win over Carolina at home in which Falcons QB Matt Ryan threw for 503 yards and four touchdowns. WR Julio Jones caught 12 of those passes, including one for a touchdown; he racked up 300 yards on the day. The Falcons have now scored 93 points in their last two games.

After earning a 27-7 win in Tampa Bay, the Broncos are one of three undefeated teams left in the NFL (along with Philadelphia and Minnesota). Rookie Paxton Lynch filled in admirably for the injured starter Trevor Siemian, passing for 170 yards and a touchdown. The defense held the Buccaneers to 215 yards while forcing three turnovers.

Denver is a 6-point favourite for this contest. They’re 3-2 SU and ATS in their last five meetings with Atlanta, and the Falcons are 2-3 SU and 2-2 ATS in four trips to Denver since 1982.

New York Giants at Green Bay Packers

The Giants off their second consecutive loss this past Monday night are in a very tough spot. Giants are not only playing on short rest, caught in back-2-back road games but are visiting Lambeau Field to play a rested Packer squad off its BYE WEEK.

Lay the expected -7.5 points. Giants are a vig losing 3-3 ATS away on short rest, have struggled to cash in the second of back-2-back road games going 2-4-1 ATS, 0-3-1 ATS in an underdog roll. On the other side, Packers tend to keep backers happy facing a team off MNF (4-1 ATS) and during Pumpkin month at home (8-2 ATS). Additionally, Packers have been good bets as home chalk of 7.5 or less during regular season posting a 7-2 ATS record last eight, 11-4-1 mark the past sixteen handing visitors seven-half or less.

The most compelling numbers in favor of Green Bay are the figures compiled following a 'BYE Week'. The Packers are a sparkling 9-1 against the betting line. Evidence is the key in making any case, and the numbers illustrate Green Bay is the right choice.

Total Talk - Week 5
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com

Week 4 Recap

The ‘over’ went 8-7 last weekend with seven teams scoring 30-plus points. Atlanta and Pittsburgh once again showed their explosive ability as they posted 48 and 43 points respectively. Through four weeks, the ‘over’ holds a slight edge at 33-29-1.

Quick Observations

Tampa Bay scored 31 in Week 1 and followed that effort with seven points in Week 2. Coincidentally, the Buccaneers posted 32 in Week 3 and were held to seven again last Sunday to Denver.

The Bills shutout the Patriots 16-0 last Sunday, the third blanking of the season and that’s rare considering we only had two all of last season. In the first two bagels of 2016, it should be noted that the winning team lost its next game while the loser rebounded. Buffalo visits Los Angeles and New England travels to Cleveland in Week 5.

Off the Bye

The NFL breaks started last week as the Packers and Eagles got an early rest and four teams will be off in Week 5. Handicapping off the bye is never easy but I tend to lean towards coaches that have a decent tenure with their current squads.

Green Bay – Sticking with the above, head coach Mike McCarthy has led Green Bay to an 8-2 record off the bye since he arrived in 2006. The Packers have seen the ‘under’ go 7-3 during this span and only three of those games were played at Lambeau Field. In those three wins and easy covers, the Pack only allowed 23 points.

Philadelphia – Similar to McCarthy, Andy Reid was a great coach after the bye but he’s long gone in Philly and so is Chip Kelly, who was let go last year. That leaves us with the rookie Doug Pederson and it will be interesting to see if the unbeaten Eagles lose any momentum this Sunday when they visit Detroit.

Halftime Tendencies

The Vikings, Broncos and Titans have all seen the ‘under’ go 3-1 in the second-half this season, which is attributed to great defensive efforts. The production from Denver and Minnesota isn’t surprising, but Tennessee has only surrendered 35 points in the final 30 minutes of its first four games and that number shrinks to just 14 if you take away three defensive and special team scores.

Knowing Atlanta has watched the ‘over’ start 4-0, it shouldn’t be surprising to know that it’s 7-1 to the ‘over’ in all of its halftime wagers.

The ‘over’ has gone 3-1 in the second-half for both the Raiders and Redskins. Those results have been attributed to poor defensive numbers, with Washington (413 YPG) and Oakland (460 YPG) ranked 29th and 32nd in total defense.

AFC meets NFC

The ‘under’ was a great investment last season in non-conference games as it went 41-21-2 (66%). The pendulum has slowly swung the other way in the 2016 campaign with the ‘over’ starting 11-7 (61%) in the first four weeks.

There are six non-conference games set for Sunday and these are tough handicaps because these clubs haven’t met since 2012 due to the alternating schedules in the NFL.

Houston at Minnesota: Hard to make an argument for the ‘over’ (40 ½) in this game. They both enter with identical 3-1 ‘under’ records and neither team likes to play fast. The Minnesota defense has been lights out against quality QBs and it’s hard to imagine Brock Osweiler doing much better on the road. First team to 20 might be the winner here.

Washington at Baltimore: This “Beltway Series” total could be argued either way because Washington’s defense isn’t very good (413 YPG 28 PPG) and Baltimore (256 YPG, 18 PPG) boasts one of the better groups in the league. The Redskins have seen the ‘over’ go 4-0 yet this is the lowest total (45) they’ve seen posted this season and that alone makes me hesitant to lean high.

Chicago at Indianapolis: Seems like a high total (48) knowing the Bears are the only team in the NFL to be held under 20 in each of their first four games. However, the Colts have allowed 30-plus points in three of their first four. Hoyer has actually played well (69%, 4 TDs, 0 INTs) for the Bears but John Fox has the team playing super slow to protect its beat-up defense.

Atlanta at Denver: When offense meets defense, the latter usually comes out on top. Will that be the case on Sunday? Atlanta’s numbers are off the charts offensively but its defense is very suspect and unfortunately for them, Denver’s defense is great. Dating back to 2015, the Broncos have allowed 13.4 PPG in seven matchups against NFC foes.

Buffalo at Los Angeles: This is the lowest total on the board (39) and hard to disagree with the number. Both clubs have each played in a couple shootouts, but I would consider those outcomes anomalies and still lean to the low side in this spot. We’ve had two totals close in the thirties this season and the ‘under’ cashed easily in both games.

Cincinnati at Dallas: Despite playing a rookie at QB, the Dallas offense (395 YPG) is ranked second on total yards and 10th in points (25.2 PPG). The Bengals defense is a major test and the return of linebacker Vontaze Burfict last week helped the team only allow one touchdown. Cincinnati’s offense has 18 scores, unfortunately 12 of them are field goals. Not having tight end Tyler Eifert healthy has certainly hurt the Bengals in the red zone.

Divisional Matchups

Arizona and San Francisco played Thursday and it looked like an ‘under’ winner with the scored knotted 7-7 at half but the pair combined for 40 in the second and the ‘over’ (42½) connected.

San Diego at Oakland: This will be the only divisional matchup on Sunday and it’s also happens to have the highest total for Week 5. The ‘under’ has gone 4-2 the last six encounters but that run could likely end at the Coliseum this Sunday. The Chargers (30.2 PPG) and Raiders (27 PPG) have both put up eye-opening offensive numbers this season and neither is stout defensively. The trend that makes me lean ‘over’ in this spot is Oakland’s defensive tendencies off a win. Dating back to last season, the team is allowing 30.5 PPG after a victory and they just beat Baltimore 28-27 last Sunday on the road.

Tampa Bay at Carolina:

Under the Lights

Including this past Thursday’s matchup between the Cardinals and 49ers, total bettors have seen the ‘over’ go 7-6-1 in primetime games this season.

N.Y. Giants at Green Bay: Tough scheduling spot for the Giants, who are playing consecutive road games in primetime spots. New York’s offense (18.2 PPG) hasn’t found any rhythm under new coach Ben McAdoo, which is surprising since they put up 26.2 PPG last season with him as the offensive coordinator. Even though QB Eli Manning hasn’t been sharp, the Giants have averaged 34.3 PPG in their last four versus G-Bay and he’s tossed 10 touchdowns during this span. Green Bay’s offense (25 PPG) hasn’t been exactly stellar this season either but they showed their muscle versus Detroit (34-27) in Week 3. Make a note of the strong bye trends (see above) for the Packers in this matchup.

Tampa Bay at Carolina: After QB Cam Newton was ruled ‘out on Saturday, oddsmakers sent out an opener of 44 ½. With a healthy Newton last season, the Panthers blasted the Buccaneers twice (37-23, 38-10) and the ‘over’ cashed in each game. Prior to those games, the ‘under’ was on a 3-0 run. Make a note that all three NFC South divisional matchups this season have gone ‘over’ the number, directly attributed to Atlanta’s total record.

Fearless Predictions

We had our first losing week of the season albeit 20 cents ($20). Through four weeks, the bankroll ($260) remains in the black and that’s the goal. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: New York-Green Bay 47½

Best Under: New England-Cleveland 47

Best Team Total: Over 26½ Indianapolis

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
New York-Green Bay Over 38½
Chicago-Indianapolis Over 39
Cincinnati-Dallas Under 54