Week 6 Openers
By Kevin Rogers
Five weeks into the NFL season the Eagles and Falcons are a combined 3-7, while the Bengals have as many wins as the two reigning division champions. The shortness of training camp may have something to do with the rise of underrated teams like Detroit, San Francisco, and Washington, but the mindset on these clubs has changed in the public's perception. Let's take a look at the M Resort's opening numbers in July compared to the numbers released this past Sunday for Week 6 in the NFL.
Panthers at Falcons
July opener: Atlanta -12½
Sunday opener: Atlanta -5
The Falcons have turned into pointspread poison at 1-4 ATS, while the defending NFC South champs are 2-3 out of the gate. Atlanta is only 0-1 inside the division thanks to a Week 3 loss at Tampa Bay, as the Falcons welcome in the 1-4 Panthers. Carolina is one of the best ATS plays this season at 4-1, including a cover in Sunday's three-point loss as 6 ½-point home 'dogs to New Orleans.
This is the biggest pointspread movement of any game this week not involving the Peyton Manning-less Colts. Obviously, no one believed that Cam Newton would keep Carolina as competitive as it is right now, but the Panthers' rookie still needs to rack up some victories. The Panthers have lost each of the last three meetings at the Georgia Dome, while the Falcons are 9-2 ATS the previous 11 games off a defeat.
Colts at Bengals
July opener: Indianapolis -2½
Sunday opener: Cincinnati -7
The Colts will not be favored for a very long time after blowing a 24-7 lead in a 28-24 setback to the struggling Chiefs, falling to 0-5. Indianapolis makes the short trip to Cincinnati, as the Bengals have turned into one of the league's biggest surprises following a 30-20 win at Jacksonville to improve to 3-2. Now, the expectations rise on Marvin Lewis' team as a healthy touchdown favorites over an Indianapolis club that has let the last three games slip away.
However, the Bengals have been an awful home favorite since 2009 with a 1-10 ATS mark, including a Week 3 loss to San Francisco. Even though the Colts haven't been listed as a road underdog much, Indianapolis is 6-3 ATS in that role the last four seasons. The Bengals are 5-3 ATS before the bye week under Lewis, as Cincinnati has an excellent chance to be 5-2 by Halloween with a trip to Seattle after the open date next week.
Eagles at Redskins
July opener: Eagles -3½
Sunday opener: Pick-em
This has to be the week Philadelphia turns it around at 1-4, right? That's what Eagles' backers continue to believe after falling for a fourth straight week at Buffalo, 31-24 as short road 'chalk.' Andy Reid's squad hits the road again to battle Washington, as the Redskins are off the bye week with a 3-1 record.
The Eagles have had very little go right for them over the last four weeks, but can salvage their season with the inconsistent play of the Cowboys and Giants ahead of them in the NFC East. Philadelphia owns a 9-2 ATS record the last 11 road games against division foes, including a 59-28 beatdown of the Redskins last season in D.C. Since 2009, the Redskins are 2-6 ATS as a favorite, as Washington is listed as a one-point favorite as of Monday afternoon.
Rams at Packers
July opener: Green Bay -9½
Sunday opener: Green Bay -14½
Both teams were expected to win their respective divisions this season, but only one of them is on that track. Green Bay continues to impress with a 5-0 record, while covering four times through the first five weeks. The Rams can't get into the end zone on a consistent basis by scoring just four touchdowns in the team's four losses. St. Louis is fresh off the bye week, but now the Rams need to slow down the league's highest scoring offense.
Green Bay owns a 10-3-1 ATS record the last 14 games at Lambeau Field, including a pair of wins over the Saints and Broncos this season. Double-digit favorites have not been successful through five weeks with a measly 2-5 ATS record, including Green Bay's ATS loss at Carolina in Week 2.
NFL Week 6
Rams (0-4) @ Packers (5-0) - Not only is St Louis off to horrific 0-4 start, its fifth year in row starting 0-2, their top seven CBs are all out hurt, so good luck stopping prolific Packer passing attack that saw 12 different guys catch passes in comeback win at Atlanta Sunday nite. Green Bay scored 42-49 points in its two home games so far- they're 4-1 vs spread and converted 18 of last 28 third down plays. Rams covered last four post-bye games but have been useless so far this season, with three losses by 12+ points- they've scored one TD in each game this year. NFC West non-divisional underdogs are 5-8-1 against spread. In their last four games, Pack outscored opponents 73-23 in second half.
Jaguars (1-4) @ Steelers (3-2) - Pittsburgh is banged up, have turnover ratio of minus-11 (only two takeaways in five games), but they're still 3-2, with wins by 25-21 points in only home games- they're 6-3 vs spread in last nine games as home favorite. Jacksonville lost its last four games, scoring four TD's on 48 drives, with 20 3/outs- they lost road games 32-3 at the Jets and 16-10 on rainy day in Charlotte. Jags are actually 4-1 in last five series, 5-1 in last six visits here, with last visit a 31-27 win in '97 playoffs. Steelers are 6-13 vs spread last 19 games as double digit favorite. AFC South non-divisional underdogs are 4-6, 2-4 on foreign soil. Jaguars are 0-5 against the pointspread this season.
Eagles (1-4) @ Redskins (3-1) - Road team won seven of last nine series games; Iggles won four of last five visits here, including 59-28 Monday night thrashing LY when Vick ran amuck, but that seems like long time ago now. Philly is 3-7 in last ten pre-bye games; they're 3-8 as pre-bye favorite. Washington are off to good start thanks to solid defense; they've allowed only two TDs on foes' last eight red zone drives. Redskins lost their last three post-bye games by average score of 35-18. Struggling Philly allowed 29.8 ppg in losing last four ballgames (15 TDs on 45 drives) but part of that is failures by offense (11 turnovers last three games, minus-9 TO ratio). Over is 4-1 in Eagle games this season.
49ers (4-1) @ Lions (5-0) - Two Cinderellas bang heads here, with Lions off of first Monday night home game in 10 years. 49ers are +10 in turnovers, Lions +7, but Detroit's win Monday when they were -1 in turnovers is good sign for them. SF allowed only two TDs on 34 drives in last three games. Detroit won its two home games, 48-3/24-13, with nine TDs on 24 drives. NFC North clubs are 9-5 vs spread in non-division games, 4-2 as home favorites. NFC West dogs are 5-8-1. 49ers are 12-1 in last 13 series tilts, winning last seven, all by 6+ points. Niners are 1-6 in last seven pre-bye games, with five of six losses by 8+ points. Both teams are playing with supreme confidence-- interesting game.
Bills (4-1) @ Giants (3-2) - Huge red flag for Giants are 177-156-145 rushing yards they’ve allowed in last three games. In their three wins, Giants converted 16 of 40 (40%) on 3rd down- in their two losses, 2-22 (9.1%). Buffalo has won turnover battle in every game, and is +11 for season; none of their five games have been closer than 11 points at half, with trailing team winning three of last four. Giants are 7-10 vs spread in last 17 games vs AFC teams, 7-3 in last ten games as single digit favorite. Buffalo lost its last 11 pre-bye games (3-8 vs spread); Giants won six of last eight pre-spread tilts, but are just 1-4 in last five games as pre-bye favorite. Over is 4-1 in Buffalo games this season, 3-1-1 in Giant games.
Panthers (1-4) @ Falcons (2-3) - Disappointing Falcons are 1-4 vs spread, with only wins by 35-31/30-28 scores- they’re 15-6-1 vs spread in last 22 games as home favorite, 16-4-1 in last 22 as single digit faves. Atlanta won four of last five series games, with all wins by 8+ points; Carolina lost last three visits here, by 17-8-21 points, as Falcons won both series meetings 31-10 LY. Carolina covered three of its four losses, with no setbacks by more than 7 points; Panthers lost road games 28-21/34-29- this is their first game on artificial turf. Falcons were outscored 40-6 in second half the last two weeks; they’ve lost field position struggle four games in row. Average total in Panthers’ last four visits here, 52.3.
Colts (0-5) @ Bengals (3-2) - Since 2006, Bengals are 7-19-1 vs spread as single digit favorite. Cincy scored 22+ points in four of five games, winning field position battle in all five. Colts’ last four losses are all by 8 or less points- they led at half in last three games, but were outscored 44-14 in second half. Painter has played better than expected in his two starts, averaging 7.5/10.3 yards/pass attempt. Indy allowed 192-194 rushing yards last two games. Bengals are 3-6 SU in last nine pre-bye games; since 1990, they’re 3-5 as pre-bye favorite. Indy is 12-3 in last 15 series games, winning last seven, all by 6+ points- they’ve won eight of last visits here, a short 114-mile drive southeast on I-74.
Texans (3-2) @ Ravens (3-1) - Since 2000, Baltimore is an amazing 33-9 vs spread as a non-divisional home favorite, which they are here. Houston allowed 7-13-10 points in its wins, 40-25 in losses- they’ve got tough task here vs Raven squad that scored 35-37-34 points in its three wins, although defense did score three TDs in last game, while QB Flacco floundered vs Jet defense. Baltimore won eight of last nine post-bye games, covering last six as a post-bye favorite; they’re 4-0 in this series, with three wins by 4 or less points, or in OT; they won 34-28 in OT at Reliant in LY’s meeting. Texans lost 16-15 in only visit here six years ago. All four Raven games went over total; four of five Houston games stayed under. Texans have only four TDs on last 14 red zone drives.
Browns (2-2) @ Raiders (3-2) - Oakland is favored for first time this season; Browns are underdog for first time this year- they’ve scored 17 or less points in three of four games this year- their two losses are by 10-18 points. Over last decade, favorite is 9-1 vs spread in Cleveland’s post-bye games, with Browns 1-5 as post-bye underdog. Over last 6+ years, Browns are 14-11-1 as non-divisional road dogs; over last 4+ years, they’re 14-9 as single digit underdogs. Over last 8+ years, Oakland is 23-42-1 vs spread at home, 6-17 when favored. Raiders are 3-10-1 vs spread in game following their last 14 wins. AFC North non-divisional underdogs are 4-1 vs spread; AFC West home favorites are 1-3. Three of four Cleveland games went over the total.
Cowboys (2-2) @ Patriots (4-1) - All four Dallas games were decided by 4 or less points, with Pokes splitting pair of 27-24 decisions on road. Cowboys are 5-3 in last eight games as road underdog. Patriots scored 30+ points in every game so far (20 TDs on 53 drives, no TDs on defense/special teams)- they’re 11-6-1 in last 18 games as home favorite, 16-9-1 in game following their last 26 wins. Cowboys are 15-4 in last 19 post-bye games, winning five of last six, covering three of last four as post-bye dog. New England is 8-3 as pre-bye favorite, winning 35-7/41-14 in game before last two byes. Patriots have four TD’s on five game-opening drives, Dallas has two TDs and FG on four opening drives. Overall, over is 4-1 in Patriot games, 3-1 with Dallas.
Saints (4-1) @ Buccaneers (3-2) - Third week in row on road for Saints, who are 6-3 in last nine visits here, winning 38-7/31-6 in last two. Road team won five of last seven series games. NO scored 30+ points in four of five games this year, and won the fifth game by 13 points, only time this year they lost field position. Bucs are 4-14-1 vs spread in last 19 home games; what do you make of a team that lost 48-3 last week? They’re 1-10 vs spread in last 11 games as home underdog. Home dogs are 5-3 vs spread in divisional games this season. Saints converted 44 of 75 (58.7%) on 3rd down this year, big reason why they score lot of points- they either scored TD or tried FG on 33 of 52 drives this season, Bucs only 18 of 51. New Orleans is 4-1 and they haven’t won turnover battle in any game yet this year.
Vikings (1-4) @ Bears (2-3) - Minnesota had double digit lead at half in four of five games, but only finished one of the four games out- they were outscored 87-22 in second half of games. Bears lost three of last four games, and needed TDs on special teams and defense to get the one win, 34-29. Chicago won last three series games, taking 27-13/40-14 decisions LY. Vikings lost nine of last ten visits to Windy City, losing last three by 7-6-14 points. Chicago is 3-9-1 vs spread in its last 13 games as home favorite; home side covered four of their five games this year. Minnesota big win last week needs context; the three first quarter TDs they scored came on drives of 18-24-25 yards, with two of three drives set up by takeaways. Three of Bears’ last four games stayed under total.
Dolphins (0-4) @ Jets (2-3) - Former Panther QB Moore gets first Miami start with Henne out. Gang Green is off 0-3 road trip; offense has bullseye on chest via fans after WRs complained about playcalling, then Mason was traded away. Visitor won six of last seven series games; Miami won four of last five in series, including last three here by 7-5-4 points. Dolphins are 18-8 vs spread in last 26 road games, 19-9-2 in last 30 games as road underdog. Jets are 9-16-1 in last 26 games as a home favorite. Miami is 4-9 in last 13 post-bye games, 4-3 in last seven as post-bye underdog. Average total in last four series games is 45.8. Dolphins’ losses this year are by 14-1-10 points; they have only three TDs on 30 drives in last three games.
NFL Poolies' Cheat Sheet: Week 6
By Colin Kelly
Six weeks ago, the Eagles were being heralded as Super Bowl contenders. Now, not so much. No one roars quite like the Lions at this point – except perhaps the unbeaten and reigning Super Bowl champion Packers. On to Week 6 of the NFL poolies’ cheat sheet:
Buffalo Bills at New York Giants (-3)
Why Bills cover: Ryan Fitzpatrick & Co. the Lions of the AFC – except for that one loss, of course – and they just dumped Eagles. New York, meanwhile, just lost at home as a double-digit favorite to meager Seahawks. Buffalo 8-3-1 ATS last dozen as road underdog; Giants 4-10 ATS last 14 as home chalk.
Why Giants cover: Eager to make amends to home fans who witnessed embarrassing loss to Seattle. New York rises up at betting window in October, with 22-8-1 ATS mark last 30 in month of Halloween.
Total (50): Loads of over trends for both teams, including 6-0 overall for Bills, 5-1 on highway for Buffalo and 5-1-1 for the G-Men at home.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers (-12.5)
Why Jaguars cover: They’ve had the best of this AFC rivalry, going 10-4 ATS last 14 overall, and underdog has cashed last seven clashes. Pittsburgh in 0-4 ATS rut coming off SU win.
Why Steelers cover: Jags possess one of most pathetic offenses in league, averaging paltry 11.8 ppg. Jacksonville rookie QB Blaine Gabbert vs. Pittsburgh veteran and proven star Ben Roethlisberger is no contest. Steelers have beaten oddsmakers last five at home.
Total (40.5): Under 4-1 this year for Jags, but Pittsburgh on over stretches of 7-2 overall, 7-0 after spread-cover and 7-1 after SU win.
St. Louis Rams at Green Bay Packers (-14.5)
Why Rams cover: Not much to state in their favor, but Green Bay 6-16-2 ATS in last 24 starts as chalk of more than 10 points.
Why Packers cover: St. Louis scores even less than the Jaguars, at league-worst 11.5 ppg, while the Pack racks up a league-leading 34.6 ppg. Aaron Rodgers & Co. 7-1 ATS last eight at Lambeau.
Total (47.5): Over 5-1 last six Rams-Packers affairs, and total has gone high in seven of Green Bay’s last eight at home. Still, under 7-1 in St. Louis’ last eight vs. winning teams.
Philadelphia Eagles (-1) at Washington Redskins
Why Eagles cover: Absolutely desperate for win after four consecutive SU and ATS losses, dropping to 1-4 in both categories this season. If Super Bowl pick of many expects to make run, it needs to start here. Road team has cashed four straight in this rivalry.
Why Redskins cover: Well-rested coming off bye week and have gone 6-1-1 ATS in last eight starts overall. Philly has already committed league-worst 15 turnovers and has minus-10 turnover differential.
Total (47.5): Over 16-5 in Eagles’ last 21 on highway, but under has been play in five of last six for Redskins.
Indianapolis Colts at Cincinnati Bengals (-7)
Why Colts cover: QB Curtis Painter has proven he can lead team to points the past couple weeks. And Bengals don’t handle favorite’s role well, with 6-21 ATS mark last 27 as chalk.
Why Bengals cover: Absence of Colts superstar QB Peyton Manning magnified more and more each week, with Indy still winless. Cincy on ATS upswings of 7-1 overall and 7-0 inside AFC.
Total (40.5): Both these teams have played to over lately, with total going high in four straight overall for Indy, seven of eight on highway for Colts and four of five overall for Cincy.
San Francisco 49ers at Detroit Lions (-4)
Why 49ers cover: They haven’t done bettors wrong yet, going 4-0-1 ATS this season. And QB Alex Smith looks like he might finally be getting it, six years into his career. He’s got a 7-1 TD-to-INT differential so far this season.
Why Lions cover: Alex Smith won’t be as effective when he’s getting tossed around by dominant Detroit defensive line all afternoon. Lions on fire, with nine consecutive SU wins and 9-0-1 ATS streak.
Total (46.5): These two teams are among league’s best in scoring, with Detroit fourth at 31.8 ppg and San Fran seventh at 28.4. Total went high in nine of Lions’ last 12 at home, and over 6-1 in Niners’ last seven overall.
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-4)
Why Panthers cover: Cam Newton & Co. not winning games (1-4 SU), but they are paying off at betting window (4-1 ATS).
Why Falcons cover: Can’t afford to dump two in row at home, coming off SU and ATS setback to Super Bowl champion Packers. And numbers in this rivalry point to Atlanta, which is 10-3-2 ATS in last 15 home tilts with Carolina.
Total (50.5): Over on runs of 11-4-2 overall for Atlanta and 8-1-2 with Carolina a road pup.
Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens (-8)
Why Texans cover: That’s a lot of points to be getting for offense featuring QB Matt Schaub and RB Arian Foster – even if stud wideout Andre Johnson isn’t available.
Why Ravens cover: When they win, they win big. In their four victories this year, average margin a whopping 22.3 points. And Texans without star LB Mario Williams for rest of year. Houston 1-5 ATS last six as road ‘dog.
Total (45): Total has gone high five straight for Baltimore and five straight with Houston as a road pup.
Cleveland Browns at Oakland Raiders (-6.5)
Why Browns cover: Oakland not comfortable as home chalk, going 2-12 ATS last 14 in that role.
Why Raiders cover: Riding emotion for first home game since death of owner Al Davis, and coming off road upset of Texans just a day after Davis’ passing. Oakland 5-1 ATS last six; Cleveland 1-6-1 ATS last eight.
Total (44.5): Raiders cleared total in five of last six at home.
Dallas Cowboys at New England Patriots (-7)
Why Cowboys cover: Coming off bye week, so should be rested and focused for one of Week 6’s marquee games. Dallas thriving as underdog, cashing six straight times in that spot.
Why Patriots cover: At 4-1 SU and ATS this season, all four wins have come by minimum of nine points, with three double-digit victories. And Bill Belichick’s troops have faced four straight stout foes – Chargers, Bills, Raiders and Jets – so they are battle-tested.
Total (55): That’s a big number, but high-octane Pats offense always seems up to scoring boatload of points. Over 20-6 in New England’s last 26 overall and 17-4 in Patriots’ last 21 laying points. Over has also been play in seven of Pokes’ last eight roadies.
New Orleans Saints (-4.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Why Saints cover: Drew Brees-led offense has no trouble scoring, racking up 31.4 ppg (fifth). On flip side, Bucs netting just 17.4 ppg (27th). Plus, road team in this NFC South rivalry has beaten number in 13 of last 16 clashes.
Why Buccaneers cover: New Orleans not at its best within division (4-10 ATS last 14) nor on road (2-6 ATS last eight).
Total (49.5): Under has hit five straight times in this rivalry.
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (-3)
Why Vikings cover: Got their first win last week, finally realizing that RB Adrian Peterson (122 yards, 3 TDs) is a horse, and they need to ride him. In fact, Peterson has averaged 112 yards (5.0 ypc) in seven contests vs. Chicago. Bears have dropped four straight ATS.
Why Bears cover: Vikings are on many ATS streaks, and none of them good, including 4-10 in roadies, 2-9-1 catching points and 1-7 in Chicago.
Total (41.5): Under has cashed in Vikes’ last six road contests.
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (-7)
Why Dolphins cover: Miami has pulled off SU and ATS victories in last three road games against Jets, all from underdog role. Coming off bye week and 0-4 start, Fish should be hungry for win, or short of that, a spread-cover. Over-hyped New York just 1-5 ATS last six games.
Why Jets cover: Rex Ryan’s troops have lost three straight by average of 12 ppg. That should have them desperate to stop looking like awful team and more like one that reached last two AFC title games. Miami hasn’t covered since last season, going 0-6-1 ATS in past seven starts.
Total (43.5): Miami on 8-2 under run on road, but over for Jets on surges of 22-7 overall and 7-1 inside AFC East.
Tip Sheet - Week 6
By Kevin Rogers
The late games in the NFL have always been known as "chasers" for bettors who may have lost in the early contests. Playing the favorites in the 4:00 games have turned profitable this season with a 19-3 SU and 14-7-1 ATS mark, including a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS record in Week 5. Three of the four favorites playing in the late afternoon games are amongst the league's elite (Ravens, Patriots, and Saints), who are a combined 11-3. We'll start with a team who returns home to honor its late owner, while looking for their fourth win on the season.
Browns at Raiders (-6½, 44½)
One day after longtime owner Al Davis passed away, the Raiders rallied past the Texans as road underdogs to improve to 3-2 on the season. Now, Oakland returns to the Black Hole this Sunday to host the 2-2 Browns, who are fresh off the bye week. Interestingly enough, the Browns are listed as a 'dog for the first time this season, while the Raiders are laying points for the first time in five games.
Cleveland's offense hasn't made many strides this season for the exception of the 27-point outburst at Indianapolis in Week 2 by scoring 17 points or less in the three other games. Somehow, the Browns have cashed the 'over' three times despite the lack of scoring, while looking for their sixth straight cover against the Raiders dating back to 2003. Oakland has turned in a pair of 'unders' since a run of three straight 'overs,' while the Raiders try to improve on a 2-12 ATS mark the previous 14 opportunities as home 'chalk.'
Texans at Ravens (-7½, 44½)
Baltimore returns from the bye week as the Ravens welcome in the beat-up Texans. Houston will be without star receiver Andre Johnson and standout defensive end Mario Williams due to injuries, as Gary Kubiak's club is just 1-4 ATS the previous five games as a road 'dog since the start of last season. The Ravens are 2-0 SU/ATS at home with blowout wins over the two teams that played for the AFC Championship last season (Steelers and Jets).
In John Harbaugh's tenure as head coach, the Ravens own a 15-8 ATS record as a home favorite, including a 12-3 ATS mark the last 15 home games against non-division foes. Houston's issues as an underdog were documented above, but another scary number is the 1-5 ATS ledger since November 2009 off a home loss. The Texans are playing with revenge on Sunday after dropping a 34-28 home decision to the Ravens last season in a Monday night thriller, as Baltimore captured victory thanks to an interception return for a touchdown in overtime.
Cowboys at Patriots (-7, 55)
Dallas may sit at just 2-2 on the season, but all four games have been decided by four points or less as the Cowboys head to Foxboro to battle the Patriots. New England has topped the 30-point mark in all five games, including last Sunday's 30-21 home victory over the Jets, cashing as 7 ½-point 'chalk.' The Patriots begin a crucial stretch with games against the Steelers, Giants, and Jets following the bye week, so a letdown is out of the question for Bill Belichick's squad.
New England owns a solid 6-2-1 ATS record the previous nine games off a division win, including three victories by 27 points or more last season. The Cowboys have turned into a profitable play off the bye week over the years, going 5-1 ATS the last six seasons, including a 4-0 SU/ATS mark on the road. Dallas has compiled a 6-2 SU record since 2007 on the highway against AFC opponents, as the Cowboys beat the Texans and Colts as underdogs last season.
Saints (-4½, 49½) at Buccaneers
Tampa Bay stumbles back home after getting sliced up in San Francisco last week, 48-3, as the Bucs host the red-hot Saints. Since falling in the opener to undefeated Green Bay, Sean Payton's team is riding a four-game winning streak, including last week's shootout victory at Carolina. The Saints conclude a stretch of three consecutive road games, the first time playing three straight away from home since Hurricane Katrina knocked them out of the Superdome to start the 2005 season.
New Orleans isn't a great road favorite after failing to cash at Carolina, as the Saints have compiled a 3-8 ATS mark the last 11 when laying points away from Louisiana. The Saints have an excellent opportunity to open things up in the NFC South race with games against the Colts, Rams, and a second go-around with the Bucs over the next month. Tampa Bay has struggled under Raheem Morris as a home underdog with a 1-9 ATS record, while going 4-13 ATS at Raymond James Stadium since 2009.
NFL Betting Weather Report: Week 6
Indianapolis Colts at Cincinnati Bengals (-7, 40.5)
The forecast for Paul Brown Stadium is calling for winds, blowing SW from sideline to sideline, at speeds of up to 15 mph Sunday.
St. Louis Rams at Green Bay Packers (-14, 47)
Winds at Lambeau Field will reach speeds of up to 15 mph, blowing west from sideline to sideline. Game-time temperatures will dip into the high 40s with a 10 percent chance of showers.
Buffalo Bills at New York Giants (-3. 50)
The forecast for MetLife Stadium is calling for winds, blowing west, at speeds of up to 15 mph. Game-time temperatures will fall into the mid 60s with a 19 percent chance of rain.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers (-12.5, 40)
Things could be very sloppy at Heinz Field Sunday. Not only is rain in the forecast for Pittsburgh, but the Pitt Panthers played at Heinz Field Saturday, crewing up what is well known as the worst field in the NFL. Showers are expected to start in the second half along with winds of speeds up to 13 mph, blowing SW from corner to corner.
Dallas Cowboys at New England Patriots (-6, 55.5)
Winds are expected to blow WSW, from sideline to sideline, at speeds of up to 13 mph in the first half of this Sunday showdown. Temperatures at Gillette Stadium will dip into the high 50s.
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (-1, 41.5)
The Windy City will throw a medium breeze at Soldier Field Sunday, with winds of up to 11 mph expected to pick up in the second half. Temperatures will drop into the low 50s for this NFC North primetime matchup.
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (-7, 42.5)
There’s a 12 percent chance of showers for this Monday night matchup, with rain expected to start later on the in evening. The temperature will drop in the mid 50s by halftime.
Late Line Moves - Week 6
By Micah Roberts
One of the biggest moves of the week was a surge of Philadelphia cash pushing the Eagles from a pick'em to minus-3. You've got a team in desperation like the Eagles who have to win against an upstart team like the Redskins, who believe they are a good team. It's hard to tell who has the edge here, the team that got 59 points put on them in a Monday night game last year or the team that put the 59 on the board.
Lucky's sports books in Las Vegas has posted a proposition this week that allow bettors to place their opinion with money on whether or not the Eagles will make the playoffs. The YES returns +325 while the NO requires you to lay -450.
"We got some early play on the Rams and Eagles, said Las Vegas Hilton Super Book assistant manger Jeff Sherman. "I think with the Rams having an extra week to prepare and the Packers offensive line being a major question mark this week that early money found the Rams very attractive at +15 and +14½. Not having a cohesive offensive line can be almost as damaging to a team as not having their starting running back, and with the Packers you're talking about the left tackle who protects the edge for Aaron Rodgers that could also have an effect on their passing game."
The Packers are currently -14.
The biggest game of the week from a fan appeal standpoint is the Cowboys visiting New England. A lot of Dallas money has been showing up taking this game from what appeared to be a strong -7 to -6.
Dallas has gone 10 straight games where the margin of victory has been four points or less.
Perhaps the biggest game of the week from just wins and losses is the 49ers taking on the Lions where 49ers' money came in early dropping the Lions from -5 to -4.
"We haven't had any large support on the 49ers here, but I've seen the game dropping everywhere else," said Cantor Gaming's sports book director Mike Colbert. "Personally, I'd lean to Detroit here. I can't see them losing their first game at home and I don't think the 49ers are as good as people are making them to be."
One of the games that has a huge disparity from Cantor Gaming's initial early line release of all 17 weeks is the Panthers-Falcons game.
"We opened the Falcons as 10½-point favorites with the thinking that Atlanta was one of the top two or three teams in the conference while Carolina was expected to be awful again," Colbert said. "Right now were currently at -4 and I would be surprised to see Cam Newton and the Panthers pull off the outright win. The Falcons defense is soft and Matt Ryan has been a huge disappointment."
The Falcons opened as 5-point favorites at most sports books on Monday and are now pretty universal at -4.
"I look at the Bengals laying seven and just keep thinking that they should be a touchdown over anyone," said Colbert referring to the Bengals standing still all week as 7-point favorites. "I like what Dalton has been doing there, but I think the Colts are going to give them a pretty good fight in this one."
The real puzzler this week is the Bears dropping from a 3-point home favorite to -2½ against the Vikings where simple ratings show the Bears being closer to a 4-point favorite.
"We were down on the Bears coming into the season, and it looks like we are pretty close to being right on them," said Sherman. "And if you look at what the Vikings have done this season, they have shown that they are capable of playing with anyone despite the their second half collapses."
Total Talk - Week 6
By Chris David
Week 5 Recap
After watching the ‘over’ cash in the first-half of all eight early games last Sunday, the sportsbooks knew they were going to be losing with total wagers in Week 5. Fortunately for them, two of them miraculously went ‘under’ the number but sure enough the three afternoon games all went ‘over.’ If there was any saving grace, the two primetime games on SNF and MNF both went ‘under’ the number. The finally tally watched the ‘over’ go 9-4. After five weeks, the ‘over’ stands at 44-30-3 (59%) on the season.
So Long 30
Last we talked about the lack of totals listed in the 30-something range and to no surprise, this week’s slate features no games listed under 40 points. The number of ‘over’ tickets has definitely helped the cause, plus the outcomes of those games have been insane. Gamblers have seen 16 games with a total of 39 ½ points or less. In those contests, the ‘over’ owns an eye opening 13-3 (81%) mark.
Is 50 the new 40?
It’s not surprising to see totals of 50 points or more in the NFL but the frequency this year has been out of control. Through five weeks of action, we’ve seen eight totals close at 50 or higher.
Totals above 50 Points
Buffalo 31 Philadelphia 24 Over 53
New Orleans 30 Carolina 27 Over 51
New England 30 N.Y. Jets 21 Over 50.5
Green Bay 25 Atlanta 14 Under 53
New England 31 Oakland 19 Under 55.5
Buffalo 34 New England 31 Over 54
New Orleans 40 Houston 33 Over 51.5
New England 35 San Diego 21 Over 53.5
To put things in perspective, the first 50-plus total that gamblers witnessed last season didn’t happen until Week 8 when Indianapolis and Houston squared off. While the Colts and Texans saw their game go ‘under’ in that particular matchup, you can see in the above table that the ‘over’ is hitting at a 75% rate so far. I personally believe that things even out in the long run and fortunately we have three more games that are sitting at 50-plus points for Week 6.
We’re also fortunate to lean on handicapper Brian Edwards, who is 11-3 (79%) on totals this season and the top-ranked handicapper (75%) on VegasInsider.com. He explained his handicapping process with totals and talked about the expected shootouts this week.
“I've hit a lot of 'overs' this year but I think the oddsmakers have done a much better job with this week's tight numbers. All three of the totals in the 50s are no-plays for me. I made the Pats-Cowboys game 54 and as of late Saturday afternoon, that number was 55.5 at most spots. That's not quite high enough to prompt me to play the 'under.' As for Carolina at Atlanta, I made this number 50 last Sunday afternoon. Based on the injury that'll keep Atlanta WR Julio Jones in street clothes, I adjusted to 49. This total was in the 50-51 range Saturday afternoon. If the number moves to 52, I might consider an 'under' play but I doubt it. Carolina's offense has been explosive with Cam Newton at QB and the Panthers are also giving up plenty of points. And Newton still makes mistakes, as evidenced by his six interceptions, so he can also help an 'over' with turnovers that hook opponents up with good field position.”
“I made the Giants-Bills' total 51 and we're looking at 50 right now. Therefore, I don't see any line value and have to pass.”
“As for the propensity of 'overs' this year, there's a lot of chatter about how officiating is impacting this. I think it's a valid point with defenders often getting 15-yard penalties for making minor contact with QBs and DBs getting flagged a bunch for leading with the helmet. The league is stressing to officials to make these calls because of the valid concerns about concussions. The result is we're seeing more penalties, more yards, more touchdowns and more 'overs.' But have the oddsmakers now properly made adjustments? At least for this week, I think they have.”
System Plays
Not to be redundant, but we also touched on the “Total Tip – Three Straight on the Road” system last week. It’s been hitting 70 percent (26-11-2) over the last seven seasons and is now 1-0 this year after the Jets-Patriots snuck ‘over’ their number last weekend. Six more matchups left, including this week’s battle from Tampa Bay between the Buccaneers and Saints. The other five are listed below:
Week 9 – Indianapolis at Tennessee
Week 12 – Arizona at St. Louis, Buffalo at N.Y. Jets
Week 13 – Carolina at Tampa Bay
Week 16 – Cleveland at Baltimore
Under the Lights
Finally, the bookmakers were saved with the primetime games, at least from a totals perspective. Even though the Packers and Lions covered as favorites on Sunday and Monday respectively, both games went ‘under’ and neither came close to threatening the closing number. On the season, the ‘over’ still owns an 8-3-1 record. This weekend, we have two divisional battles on tap.
Minnesota at Chicago: The total for this affair is hovering around 41 points, which seems on par considering both clubs have watched the ‘under’ go 2-3 in their first five games. It’s been splitsville the last two seasons, with the ‘over/under’ going 2-2 in the four head-to-head encounters. Despite putting up 34 last week against Arizona, that number was skewed by short tracks. Make no mistake that Vikings are a run-first team and QB Donovan McNabb is still sporadic. The Bears have been better at home offensively (27 PPG), but the defense and special teams have helped that average.
Miami at N.Y. Jets: New York has been a strong ‘over’ team (4-1) this season, while Miami has watched the ‘under’ go 3-1. Outside of holding Jacksonville to three points at home in Week 2, the Jets have surrendered 24, 34, 34 and 30 points. It would be tough to see backup QB Matt Moore accomplish those numbers with the Dolphins under the lights. The last four in this series has seen the ‘over’ produce a 3-1 mark.
Fearless Predictions
Sometimes chicken, sometimes feathers! We got swept with our Best Bets last week and we’re not going to dwell on the Cardinals-Vikings ‘over’ ticket, even though we could. I did drill the team total on Minnesota, in the first quarter too. The Three-Team teaser got beat with some wild fourth quarter rallies, which makes me wonder why I continue to put in ‘under’ plays. It’s been a strange season and the deficit is $270. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!
Best Over: New Orleans-Tampa Bay 49
Best Under: Atlanta-Carolina 50.5
Best Team Total: Over Rams (17)
Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Over 40 New Orleans-Tampa Bay
Under 49.5 Indianapolis-Cincinnati
Under 51.5 Miami-N.Y. Jets