NFL Betting News and Notes Week 6

Betting Recap - Week 5
By Daniel Dobish
VegasInsider.com

National Football League Week 5 Results

Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 8-5
Against the Spread 6-6-1
Home-Away
Straight Up 7-6
Against the Spread 5-7-1
Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 7-6

The largest underdogs to win straight up

Falcons (+4, ML +170) at Broncos, 23-16
Redskins (+4, ML +170) at Ravens, 16-10
Lions (+3.5, ML +160) vs. Eagles, 24-23

The largest favorite to cover

Patriots (-10) at Browns, 33-13
Steelers (-10) vs. Jets, 31-13
Vikings (-6) vs. Texans, 33-13

Cover Stars

The Dallas Cowboys ran out to a 28-0 lead against the visiting Cincinnati Bengals, and ended up finishing their opponent 28-14. The Cowboys have won and covered four straight games since their opening night setback against the New York Giants.The Cowboys defense has been just as bad a reason for their success as their offense, allowing just 16.0 PPG over their past three outings. They will travel to Lambeau Field to meet the Green Bay Packers, a team which is 2-0 SU/1-0-1 ATS in two home games so far.

Steel Resolve

The Pittsburgh Steelers routed the banged up New York Jets, 31-13. Pittsburgh improved to 4-1 SU/ATS, and they're 3-0 SU/ATS in Steelers Country, a.k.a. Heinz Field. The Steelers have scored 31 or more points in three of their five games, and they're averaging 32.7 points per game (PPG) in three home games. The Steelers have also allowed 16 or fewer points in four of their five outings. Next up is a trip to Hard Rock Stadium in Week 6 to visit the sinking Miami Dolphins.

Total Recall

The 'over' is 7-6 heading into Monday's NFC South rivalry between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers. In four games between AFC combatants the 'over/under' split at 2-2. In four games featuring two NFC squads the 'over' edged the 'under' 2-1. In six games featuring AFC and NFC combatants, the 'over/under' finished 3-3. The 'over' is 42-34 through the first five weekends (with one game remaining), and each week has featured a majority of the games going 'over' so far.

The four games with the highest lines failed to produce shootouts in three of the outings. New England-Cleveland (48) just missed the 'over', as the Patriots won 33-13 in Tom Brady's return to the lineup. N.Y. Jets-Pittsburgh (50) was a one-sided affair, with the Steelers shutting down visiting Gang Green by a 31-13 margin. N.Y. Giants-Green Bay (50) was a game of missed opportunities, featuring a total of six field goals and just three touchdowns, which 'over' bettors are never a fan to see. The only game which turned into a track meet was San Diego-Oakland (51), the highest total on the board, which easily hit the 'over' in a 34-31 Raiders win.

Three games had totals close at 42 1/2 or lower, and all three games ending up cashing the 'over'. Arizona-San Francisco (42.5) wwas a surprisingly offensive affair despite the fact the Cardinals were using backup QB Drew Stanton for the injured QB Carson Palmer (concussion). Buffalo-Los Angeles (41.5) inched 'over' with a 30-19 Bills win, and the lowest total on the board, Houston-Minnesota (38.5) easily cashed, as the Vikings put up 31 in their victory to nearly cover the 'over' themselves.

The 'over/under' split 1-1 in two primetime games in Week 5 heading into the Bucs-Panthers tilt. Officially, the 'over/under' is 8-7 (53.3%) through 15 games under the lights. In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games. In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56%) in 2013.

Injury Report

Browns QB Cody Kessler (chest, ribs) was knocked out of the game against the Patriots, the fourth Cleveland signal caller injured in five games. He is scheduled to have a CT scan Monday.

Packers RB Eddie Lacy (ankle) rolled his ankle in the Sunday night battle against the Giants, and he was done for the evening after trying to return and failing.

Looking Ahead

The Chargers welcome the Broncos to town Thursday night, and usually that doesn't end well for San Diego. The Bolts are 0-5 SU/ATS in their past five meetings with the Broncos, last winning at home against Denver back on Nov. 22, 2010. In the past 10 meetings in this series the Broncos are 1-9 SU/4-6 ATS.

The Panthers head down to the Bayou for a visit with the Saints. Carolina has dominated this series, going 6-2 SU and 4-4 ATS over the past eight meetings, including 3-1 SU/2-2 ATS in their past four visits to the Crescent City. The Saints are 0-2 SU/ATS in two home games this season, and they're 1-5 SU/2-4 ATS over their past six games at home dating back to last season.

The Redskins welcome the Eagles to the nation's capital for the first of two battles with Philadelphia. Washington might petition the NFL to allow them to play each other more, as the Redskins have won three straight meetings while covering four in a row in the series. They opened as a two-point underdog at home.

The Raiders look to turn things around in their AFC West Divisional rivalry against the visiting Chiefs. Kansas City has won five of the past six in the series, going 4-2 ATS during the span.

The Colts and Texans will do battle next Sunday night, and Indianapolis looks to stay hot against their AFC South Division rivals. Indy is 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS in the past seven in this series, winning and covering three straight at NRG Stadium in Houston.

Opening Line Report - Week 6
By Marcus DiNitto
VegasInsider.com

Here are the opening Las Vegas betting lines for Week 6 of the 2016 NFL season, with early moves and differences among books noted. Numbers listed are the Vegas consensus as of about 11 p.m. ET on Sunday night.

Thursday, Oct. 13

Denver Broncos (-2.5) at San Diego Chargers

The opening number of this Thursday nighter was hung with the assumption that Trevor Siemian will not be back, according to Ed Salmons, oddsmaker at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook. Should Siemian be ready to go on Thursday, the line would be in the 3, 3 (-120) range.

“He wasn’t even dressed as the backup (Sunday). I’d be shocked if he can play in four days,” Salmons said.

With rookie Paxton Lynch in for Siemian, Denver lost on Sunday for the first time this season, 23-16 to Atlanta.

“The quarterback meant more than we all thought,” Salmons added. “I didn’t think there’d be that much of a dropoff, but there was today.”

Sunday, Oct. 16

Cincinnati Bengals and New England Patriots (-8 )

When the Westgate released its look-ahead lines for Week 6 last Tuesday, sharp bettors took Cincinnati +7, pushing the number to 6.5. Then, the Bengals had their clocks cleaned in Dallas, and next week’s game at New England was reposted New England -7.5, a number early bettors laid and pushed to -8.

Salmons said of Cincy’s showing against the Cowboys, “That seemed like a good spot for them. They had the Thursday night game (last week) and the extra time, and Dallas a little bit banged up – no Dez Bryant today. Cincinnati didn’t even show up.”

Baltimore Ravens at New York Giants (-3)

CG Technology was dealing the Giants a tick higher than the Westgate was on Sunday night, at -3 (-120).

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-3)

While most books wait to learn more about Cam Newton’s status before opening wagering on this game, CG Technology hung Carolina -2 on Sunday night before a move to -3. Salmons said where his shop opens the game depends not only on whether Newton can go, but also on how the Panthers and backup QB Derek Anderson look Monday night against the Bucs. Should it be Anderson and not Newton again next week, the Saints would be about field-goal favorites, Salmons said.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-7) at Miami Dolphins

The Westgate bounced between 7 and 7.5 in Sunday night wagering on this AFC contest, while the Wynn opened Pitt -8 and was bet down to -7. Other shops sat at 7.5.

The Steelers were laying -7 or -7.5 for most of the week for their at home vs. the Jets, so it’s a bit strange to see next week’s road game against Miami posted at the same number.

“It’s an inflated line, and it’s just measuring what’s expected from the market place,” said Salmons.”… 7.5 seems crazy to me right now if both teams are healthy.”

Salmons added of the Dolphins after their poor showing in a home loss to Tennessee on Sunday, “There was so much fanfare about their Adam Gase hire, and I all hear is hear they can’t simplify their offense enough for (Ryan) Tannehill because he doesn’t understand it. It looks like the same Miami to me.”

Jacksonville Jaguars at Chicago Bears (-2)

Several books opened Chicago -1.5 but moved swiftly to -2 during Sunday night betting action.

San Francisco 49ers at Buffalo Bills (-7.5)

CG Technology opened the suddenly-hot Bills -7, the Wynn went -8, and the two books met in the middle.

Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions (-3.5)

Books were split between 3 and 3.5 on this NFC contest, as Detroit regained a modicum of respect by beating the Eagles outright as home underdogs Sunday.

Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans (-6.5)

Cody Kessler went injured during the Browns’ loss to New England, and the Browns were down to their fourth quarterback, Charlie Whitehurst. Don’t expect much difference in this line whether it’s Kessler of Whitehurst under center next week in Tennessee.

Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5) at Washington Redskins

Washington opened as the 1- to 2-point favorite for next week’s game against its NFC East rival, but the Eagles were bet to chalk status within minutes, despite losing at Detroit on Sunday.

Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders (-1.5)

The 4-1 Raiders were being dealt as 1- and 2-point favorites around Las Vegas on Sunday night, and if the spread holds, this will be the first time since 2012 that Oakland lays points to the Chiefs.

Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5)

Early bettors snapped up the +7 that was offered as the opening number at several shops Sunday night. The Falcons were fantastic in their win in Denver, their fourth straight, but this game at Seattle looks like a very difficult spot. Back-to-back road trips west against the likes of Denver and Seattle, plus the fact the Seahawks are coming off a bye.

“We keep talking that they’re last year’s Carolina. They just keep impressing,” Salmons said of the Falcons. “You look at their schedule and they have this two-game stretch where they play at Denver and at Seattle, and I guarantee if you said ‘we’ll give you one win’, they would have taken that and run. They not only won, they won easily (Sunday). That score’s misleading. That was a great win for Atlanta today.”

But next week could be a letdown spot for the Falcons, Salmons believes. “They’ve just had too many good things happen to them, and Seattle has the bye week, plus the travel.”

Sharps laid -7 with Seattle on the Westgate’s look-ahead lines, and despite Sunday’s move in the other direction, Salmons said, “I’m pretty sure the line will go higher as we get closer to game day.”

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers (-4.5)

Dog bettors grabbed the Dallas +5.5 hung at the Wynn. They like what they are seeing with the Cowboys, who rolled over Cincinnati for their fourth straight win and cover.

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (-3.5)

This line danced between 3 and 3.5 at various books around Las Vegas on Sunday night. Houston gets back into its comfort zone next week – at home against middling competition. The Texans are 3-0 at home this season, with wins over Kansas City, Chicago and Tennessee, while their two losses have come in blowout fashion on the road against contenders Minnesota and New England.

Monday, Oct. 10

New York Jets at Arizona Cardinals (-6.5)

CG was the only book in Vegas to post a number on this game Sunday night, as others hold off because of Carson Palmer’s concussion. Salmons sees the game in the 7.5, 8 range with a healthy Palmer and 4.5 to 5.5 with Drew Stanton.

Opening Lines/Observations
By Dave Essler

Bengals/Patriots: Not at all surprised this line opened more than a TD and climbing, since the Brady effect in conjunction with the Bengals being dominated in a game most people watched is worth a couple of points. If Eifert isn't back there is little chance of me taking Cincinnati, since not only does their Red Zone offense suck, but they are one of the worst teams in the NFL at third down conversions, a huge reason why we took Dallas yesterday. The Bengals played in Foxboro two years ago and were destroyed, and that may happen again.The value here may lie in the total - it's climbing a bit since it opened and just like the Cleveland game, it might end up being a tad high. New England has nothing to prove against the Bengals, so they may (assuming they're ahead enough) simply rest Brady again. However, the defense has everything to prove, and the Patriots have allowed the least amount of points in the AFC - something many might overlook.

Baltimore/Giants: So the Ravens have fired Marc Trestman, but the rub here with me is that they still have the same players and I said weeks ago that Baltimore simply doesn't have go-to players on offense, so IMO nothing is going to change. Yes, Smith and Wallace CAN be good, but they cannot run the ball and their o-line just isn't that good and with two rookies on the left side of the center they're going to struggle for a while. The Giants continue to beat themselves in many ways, but the early bettors like them a bit. If you want the Ravens, sooner is probably better than later since I do think it closes at less than the +3 that is out there now. Right now, there are too many variables for me to look at side - the total of 44.5 seems about right.

Carolina/New Orleans: No line as the Panthers still have the Monday night game to play, and we can only assume Newton will back. Obviously the betting markets like the Saints and dislike the Panthers a lot more a month into the season than they did - so the "value" might be on the Panthers, if one were so inclined. The "markets" and the bye week for New Orleans will also inflate this line a bit, and with all the points New Orleans has been giving up (to everyone BUT the Giants) it'll be a big total, perhaps too big. New Orleans played them tough both games last season, losing 27-22 at Carolina and 41-38 at home (another reason for a big total that won't dissuade many bettors, so early is better than late IMO if you like the over). There are a couple of books with lines out - probably with limits, but the Saints +3 is a gift.

Pittsburgh/Miami: I told people yesterday that the Dolphins were not bettable, almost falling into the category I put the Giants in of a team that finds new ways to lose. That didn't change Sunday, and with the Steelers putting away the lowly Jets - this line will (should) stay over the +7 mark for the week. I do think that total of 48 might be too high. One thing Miami CAN do on occasion is play defense. It opened at 48 and is starting to creep down, a trend I think continues. A total, that early in the betting cycle, that's being bet DOWN is hardly going to be the bettors at the end of the bar moving it, and IMO not likely to be an early setup.

Jacksonville/Chicago: The Jags played well in London, and had the bye week, they may well be the betting darling among touts this week. I'd have a hard time swallowing either team at this point, but Hoyer looked great Sunday, but let's not forget it was against a Colts defense that has serious issues, especially in the back end. But, Hoyer has now thrown for 300+yards in three straight games, Howard ran for over 100 the last two games, and in the last two games they've had two separate receivers have 100+ yards. That would make me take a hard look at the over here, and at 47 it's not likely to come down. The Jags haven't had a receiver go for 100 yards this season, and have had three different leading receivers in four games, none of them over 75 yards. There are likely better games - but the Bears' stock relative to this line might be as good as it gets since they seem to be on a bigger (and quieter) uptick than the Jags.

San Francisco/Buffalo: The Bills's stock might not have been any higher since Thurman Thomas retired after beating New England and the Rams on the road. That Rams game was perhaps closer than the final score indicated as Rams simply dominated time of possession and first downs, but also turnovers, including a pick-six. Taylor only had to attempt 23 passes. The 49ers have the extra rest from playing the Cardinals last Thursday - but what probably precludes from taking SF even in the better spot is the fact that they've allowed 140 points this season, and without a defense it's hard to take a team on the road, even getting 7-8 points. The total has dropped a bit, and that's one I don't necessarily agree with and COULD be a setup move.

Rams/Lions: Another case where taking the Rams might not be an option, inasmuch as I am certainly not one to think the Lions are any better with Caldwell than they were with Schwartz. If the Rams can dominate that TOP again and eliminate the turnovers, then perhaps, but the same can be said about every team in the NFL - and at this point I am questioning whether Jeff Fisher really has the respect of this team and the backing of ownership. He's made some really questionable in-game decisions as well, so Lions or nothing here. The only team LA has been able to score on is the Bucs - who arguably have one of the worst defenses in the league. The Lions -3 is available right now, but I doubt it will be later (or sooner). Indeed the Lions played the Eagles tougher than most thought they would - but both teams were "due" to head in the opposite direction(s). I don't think the Rams defense is as solid as either it was or that the perception IS - so right now this game is a clear pass for me - but falling back on the "Lions or nothing" thought.

Cleveland/Tennessee: As bad as the Browns are, it might have been tough to think of the Titans as a 7 point favorite. Given the Browns QB situation I'm actually surprised there's a line, but then again how much worse could it get for them and how much lower could their stock be? I do know that sooner or later they might win a game, and/or cover a number - but at this point it won't be with my money on them. With DeMarco Murray running the ball well, Mariota hasn't had to do much, which is a good thing because the Titans haven't shown the ability to stretch the field and Mariota has already fumbled the ball three times this season - and thrown five picks. With all that in mind, I'd like to think this is a lower scoring game (which mathematically favors +7.5) and at 45.5 lean to the under a bit.

Eagles/Redskins: The bettors, at least early on, seem to remember the Eagles team from the first few weeks and not the one that lost at Detroit. Washington actually opened as slight favorite, now it's Eagles -2 most places. A quick take on that is that people will STILL bet the Eagles even if it goes higher, then the "wiseguys" will take the +2.5 and barring something unforeseen, it will never go (and stay) at +3. Either way, I do like the home dog here. The only hesitation is the the Redskins have beaten Philadelphia three straight times, all as an underdog. Four of their last five meetings have seen 51+points, twice over 60 points - so I'm a little surprised to see that total come out at 45, let alone come down early on. Yes, I know the Eagles have statistically got a great defense, but the first two games they played were against the Browns and the Bears, two teams that had struggled to score, and clearly they were motivated in the intrastate game against the Steelers. Lean Skins and over here regardless.

Raiders/Chiefs: I have to agree this afternoon that the Raiders might be the "don't overthink bet" of the week. I know their defense has had some issues - and I know that the Kansas City offense has been less than great - and I also know that the Chiefs had a bye and that Reid coming out of a bye is probably a solid bet. Especially against a division foe, albeit on the road. I guess the question is "when is the Raiders' good fortune going to end?" They beat the Saints in New Orleans on a a ballsy two point attempt, beat the Ravens in the waning seconds, and of course beat San Diego on a botched snap by the Chargers that would have a least pushed that game into OT. Early bettors might be thinking the very same things, since Oakland opened -1.5 here and it's a PK in many places. The total opened at 48 and is drifting down, perhaps a good sign for KC since they won't fare well in an old-fashioned AFL shootout. So, let's overthink the obvious and consider Kansas City.

Atlanta/Seattle: Perhaps one of the more anticipated games of the week. What has impressed me about Atlanta, and something I said would happen months ago, is that under Quinn their defense would improve. Let's not forget where Quinn came from (Seattle) and why he was hired by the Falcons. So the question is this - did Seattle right the ship after the close call with Miami and the loss to the Rams? Or is it a matter of the competition they faced, and is a bye week going to really benefit a team that might not have needed it? I tend to think that's too many points to give the Falcons, even in Seattle -

Dallas/Green Bay: I have loved Prescott and honestly think (and have thought) that Romo has thrown his last pass in a helmet with a star on it - all reasons we made Dallas our Max Bet last week and won handily. Green Bay is simply vulnerable, and although I think they (the Packers) might be able to score on Dallas, a mobile QB like Prescott will negate any sort of defensive improvement Green Bay might make. Although I am not one to keep going to a well that's eventually going to run out of water - I STILL think the markets think this game is Lynn Dickey against Quincy Carter - I like the over here as well and think it closes higher than 47.

Best Bets - Week 6
By Sportsbook.ag

Sill haven't been able to find that perfect 2-0 sweep in the NFL as Week 5's best bets split the board once again. It was nice to hit on the outright winner in Detroit, but the Browns felt more of Tom Brady's wrath then I expected in his return.

Brady makes his home debut against the Bengals this week, and while that game doesn't make it to this article, be cautious with a potentially overinflated line on Brady and the Pats there.

Best Bet #1: Miami Dolphins +8

Speaking of Tom Brady and the Pats, the Pittsburgh Steelers have New England on deck in Week 7 and have to believe that's a huge game for potential playoff home field tie-breaking scenarios should that come up.

Many believed coming into the year that Pittsburgh and New England would be two of the best teams in the AFC and through five weeks it's definitely looking that way.

But this week the Steelers are in Miami, fresh off two straight blowout victories and deal with a Dolphins squad that's trying to save their season. At 1-4 SU, Miami knows they've got to start reeling off wins in a hurry and with this being their second of four straight home games, there is no better time than the present to get on a roll and back into things.

I'm not fully believing that Miami will pull off the upset here, but it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest. Simply put, getting more than a touchdown in this spot is too many points to pass up on the Dolphins.

Miami is a team nobody wants a part of in this matchup as the perception of both sides couldn't be more different right now. Miami gave up a season high 398 yards to Tennessee last week and judging by the early betting percentages on Vegas Insider, the majority of early bettors believe the Steelers offense – which is much better than Tennessee's – will rip through them rather easily.

But Miami is 9-0 ATS as sizeable underdogs (+2 or more) the last nine times they've played a foe that's won and covered in each of their past two games like Pittsburgh has. The Dolphins also catch the Steelers in a negative 6-22-1 ATS spot when on the road and playing a team with a losing record at home.

Clearly that latter number as something to do with Pittsburgh either looking ahead to a big game elsewhere, or simply just figuring they can just show up to get the W, but either way, expect Miami to keep this one close.

Best Bet #2: New York Giants -3

The Giants need to lick their wounds from consecutive losses in primetime games to NFC North foes. If you had jumped on New York early last week you managed to get an ATS win by the hook at +7.5, but this will be the week they snap that losing streak and dispatch the Ravens.

While some may argue that the Giants still didn't look great vs. Green Bay a week ago, they did do some good things that showed improvement. Eli Manning didn't visibly wear his frustration all over his face for the bulk of the game and Odell Beckham got involved again in the attack with a TD. Furthermore,

New York finally got their first interception of the season (two in total) and the defense gave them plenty of chances to get back into the contest by holding the fort and forcing Green Bay into multiple FG tries. New York can ill-afford to fall to 2-4 SU with a loss this week and I don't believe that will be the case.

Baltimore is a reeling team as well having lost two straight, and while many will point to their 2-0 SU record on the road this year as a reason to grab the points, those wins came against Cleveland and Jacksonville.

The Giants are clearly a better opponent than both of those franchises and that presents problems for a Ravens team that has failed to score more than 19 points against anyone not named Cleveland or Oakland (two of the worst defenses in the league).

Eli and company will continue to move forward in the right direction this week and capitalize on their opportunities back at home. We could end up seeing a few points in this game as well as both QB's are known to take deep shots, but in the end it will be the Giants that get the job done, winning this game by 4+.

NFL Week 6

Bengals (2-3) @ Patriots (4-1) — Brady returned LW with 406 passing yards, three TDs in an easy win; 13-7-3 in last 23 games as a home favorite. Cincinnati got spanked in Dallas LW, giving up 180 rushing yards in game that was 28-0 in 4th quarter; Bengals are just 20-66 on 3rd down; they’re 13-6-3 in last 22 games as a road underdog, 0-1 this year. Patriots won five of last six series games, with last four wins by 14+ points; Bengals lost last six visits to Foxboro- their last win here was in 1980. AFC East teams are 7-7 vs spread outside their division, 0-2 as home favorites. NFC North teams are 7-9 vs spread in non-division tilts, 1-3 as an underdog. Under is 4-1 in New England games this season, 3-1 in Bengals’ last four games.

Ravens (3-2) @ Giants (2-3) — Both teams struggling; Baltimore fired OC Trestman Monday, after scoring 8 TDs with 8 turnovers in first five games, all of which were decided by 6 or less points- they’re 11-45 on 3rd down in last three games. Former Lions HC Mornhinweg takes over as OC. Ravens are 2-0 on road, winning by 5 at Cleveland, 2 at Jacksonville. Giants lost last three games, scoring two TDs on 22 drives in last two games; they’re 1-1 at home, with two games decided by total of 5 points. Ravens won four of last five series games, with three of four wins by 19+ points. Under is 4-1 in Giant games, 3-2 in Baltimore games. Ravens are 6-1 in last seven games as a road dog; they’re underdog for first time this year. Giants are 2-5 in last seven games as a home favorite.

Panthers (1-4) @ Saints (1-3) — Carolina traveling on short week after ugly loss Monday, where they were -4 in turnovers, still only lost on last play of game. Panthers allowed 34.5 pts/game in losing first two road games; they’re 5-11 in last 16 games as a road favorite, 0-2 this year. Saints lost six of last eight games with Carolina, who won three of last four visits here. Road underdogs are 4-0 vs spread in NO games this year; over last 7+ years, Saints are 3-1 as home underdogs. Favorites are 6-0-1 vs spread in Saints’ last eight post-bye games, with NO losing 24-23/24-6 in last two post-bye tilts, after winning five in row. New Orleans is 7-11-3 in last 21 games where spread was 3 or less points; Carolina is 6-2 in last eight such games.

Steelers (4-1) @ Dolphins (1-4) — Will probably be more Steeler fans than Miami fans here; in last two games, Dolphins have run only 84 plays for 422 yards, their opponents 139 plays for 761 yards. Miami is -9 in turnovers (2-11) in its last four games. All four Steeler wins are by 8+ points; Pitt has 10 TDs on 21 drives in last two games- over last 8+ years, they’re 12-21-1 as a road favorite. Home side lost last three series games; Steelers won last three visits here and five of last six overall in series- last tine they lost here was 1998. Three of last four Miami games went over total, under is 3-1 in last four Steeler games. NFL-wide, home underdogs are 7-9 vs spread in non-divisional games. Dolphins are 2-3 in last five games as a road underdog.

Jaguars (1-3) @ Bears (1-4) — Jaguars had rough bye week after hurricane pounded their town last week; they’ve covered five of last six post-bye games. Jax is 6-11-1 in last 18 games as a road underdog, 0-1 this year- they beat Colts in London in last game- three of their four games this year went over total. Jags are 9-17 in last 26 games where spread was 3 or less points. Chicago racked up 532 yards in 29-23 loss at Indy LW, but scored only one TD in three trips to red zone- they scored 17 or less points in four of five games. Hoyer threw for 397 yards LW, 9.2 yards/attempt; Bears are 8-22-3 in last 23 games where spread was 3 or less. NFC North teams are 7-6 vs spread outside the division, 2-2 as home favorite. AFC South teams are 7-8, 2-3 as road underdogs.

49ers (1-4) @ Bills (3-2) — Kaepernick gets first start of year at QB for 49ers after their 4th loss in row LW; he gives them more mobility, little more of a deep passing threat, but is less accurate on short passes. Niners allowed 83 points in losing both its road games- they’re 3-10 in last 13 games as a road underdog, 0-2 this year. Buffalo won its last three games after an 0-2 start; they’re +9 in turnovers for year, +8 in last three games. Bills scored 30+ points in three of last four games, running ball for 178.3 yds/game in three games since they changed OCs- they’ve scored a defensive TD in three of last four games. Buffalo is 3-2 as home favorite under Ryan, 0-1 this year. 49ers won last two series games 10-3/45-3; they’ve split four visits here.

Rams (3-2) @ Lions (2-3) — Underdogs are 5-0 vs spread this year in Detroit games, 4-1 in LA’s games. Lions are 4-3 in last seven series games, but lost 21-14 in St Louis LY, when they didn’t have a play in game longer than 18 yards. Rams lost five of last seven visits to Motor City; they won last two road games by total of 9 points- this is their first game on artificial turf this season. LA is 7-6-1 in last 14 games as a road underdog. Detroit’s five games have all been decided by 7 or less points, their two home games were both decided by a single point; Lions are 8-3-2 as home favorites under Caldwell, 0-1 this year. Injury to Rams’ best CB Johnson (ankle) could be a big problem for their defense, which has allowed 28+ points in three of five games.

Browns (0-5) @ Titans (2-3) — Cleveland is 0-5 with three losses by 11+ points (2-3 vs spread). Browns are 4-7 in last 11 games as a road underdog. Kessler figures to start again here, with McCown as backup. Tennessee allowed only six offensive TDs in five games, but they’ve given up a punt return TD in each of last two games and offense has also allowed two. Titans are 2-7-2 in last 11 games as a home favorite, 0-1 this year; they’ve run ball for 180 yards/game last three weeks. Browns are 5-2 in last seven games with Titans; they beat Tennessee 28-14 LY, with punt return TD and +3 turnover margin- they won field position by 14 yards. AFC North teams are 7-9 vs spread in non-division games, 1-3 as an underdog. AFC South home favorites are 4-2 in non-divisional games. Three of last four Cleveland games went over total.

Eagles (3-1) @ Redskins (3-2) — Philly allowed three TDs on eight drives in its post-bye loss LW. after allowing two TDs on 30 drives during its 3-0 start. Washington won/covered last three games after an 0-2 start, outscoring foes 37-9 in second half; Redskins are 3-8 vs spread in last 11 games as a home favorite. Skins won last three series games; Eagles lost three of last four visits here. Three of last four series games were decided by exactly three points. Philly lost 24-23 in Detroit LW after an early bye; they’re 18-10 in last 28 games as a road underdog, 1-0 this year. Eagles outscored their opponents 70-13 in second half of games. Washington is 10-13 in last 23 games where spread was 3 or less points; Eagles are 2-6 in last eight such games. NFL-wide, home underdogs are 6-1 vs spread in divisional games.

Chiefs (2-2) @ Raiders (4-1) — Reid is 11-4 vs spread in last 15 post-bye games, 2-1 with KC. Chiefs won five of last six games with Oakland, with 4 of 5 wins by 14+ points; they’re 3-2 in last five visits here, but Chiefs are already 0-2 on road this year, scoring two TDs on 25 drives in losses at Houston (19-12), Pittsburgh (43-14). KC has been outscored 66-23 in first half this season. Raiders are 4-1 with three wins by 3 or less points, which breeds confidence; Oakland also allowed 27+ points in four of five games (over 4-1). Oakland is 6-15 in last 21 games with spread of 3 or less points, but 2-0 this year; Chiefs are 13-7 under Reid in such games. An average of 34.6 points/game have been scored, just in second half of Raider games this year.

Falcons (4-1) @ Seahawks (3-1) — 70% chance of rain here, as red-hot Falcons play out west for second week in row. Atlanta won/covered its last four games, all as an underdog- they’ve scored 18 TDs on 60 drives this year, scoring 32.7 pts/game in its three road wins. Falcons covered seven of last eight tries as a road underdog (3-0 this year). Seattle is 4-2 vs spread in last six post-bye games; they’re 26-14 in last 40 games as a home favorite, 1-1 this year. Bye week gave Wilson extra week for his legs to heal; Seahawks have had soft schedule so far, allowing 13.5 pts/game. Rams are probably best team they’ve played, so Falcons are step up in competition. NFC South road underdogs are 4-1 vs spread this year in non-divisional games.

Cowboys (4-1) @ Packers (3-1) — Dallas won/covered its last four games, running ball for 157.7 yds/game the last three weeks- they’ve scored 25.5 pts/game in road wins at Washington/SF. Rookie QB Prescott is playing well beyond his years. Cowboys are 19-12 as road dogs under Garrett, 1-0 this year. Packers are 3-1 but have scored only one second half TD this season- unusual. Pack ran ball for 135 yds/game the last two games; they’re 10-6-2 in last 18 games as a home favorite, 0-1-1 this year- both their home wins this season are by two points. Green Bay won last five series games; three of five wins were by 10+ points. Cowboys lost last three visits here; their last win at Lambeau was in 2008. NFC East non-divisional underdogs are 4-2.

Colts (2-3) @ Texans (3-2) — Indy is 23-5 vs Houston, winning six of last seven meetings; Colts are 9-4 here, winning last three visits by 3-5-7 points. Texans out gained Indy by 121-115 yards in LY’s meetings, but lost field position by 11/6 yards. Home side won/covered all five Houston games this year; Texans won their home games by 9-7-7 points, allowing four TDs on 36 drives, but Houston has only six offensive TDs in five games. Indy allowed 30+ points in all three of its losses; they’ve scored 13+ points in second half of every game. Four of Colts’ five games went over the total. In their wins, Indy averaged 7.5, 8.1, 6.8 yds/pass attempt; in losses, 3.8/4.0. Houston held three of its five opponents under 6.0 ypa. Texans are -5 in turnovers last three weeks.

Jets (1-4) @ Cardinals (2-3) — Palmer (concussion) is expected back at QB here; Redbirds had three extra days to prep- they played on Thursday LW. Arizona scored 40-33 points in its two wins, 21 or less in its losses; they’re +7 in turnovers in wins, -8 in losses. Jets allowed 23+ points in all five games this year; they lost their last three games, outscored 37-7 in second half; they’ve allowed 7.8+ yds/pass attempt in four of five games, exception being game at Kansas City when Jets turned ball over eight times and KC didn’t have to try too hard on offense. Gang Green won last six series games; four of six were in New Jersey. Jets won last two visits here; their last loss at the Cardinals was in St Louis in 1971. NFC teams are 14-8 SU against AFC teams so far this season.

Armadillosports.com

NFL Week 6 Essentials
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com

Now that most teams are going to be over one-third of the way through their schedules, it’s acceptable to write a few off if they lose this week. San Diego was headed for obscurity, but salvaged its wasteful season with an upset of Denver thanks to its best defensive performance yet. It’s been a fairly strange season thus far, the quality of play has often been grisly and early injuries have definitely played a factor. Don’t expect much to change this weekend. Here’s what you need to know before wagering on Week 6:

Cincinnati at New England: Tom Brady returned and struck up an instant chemistry with Martellus Bennett, finding him for three touchdowns while playing with other new toys like Chris Hogan in a comfortable win over the Browns. Covering a double-digit spread, it felt like Brady got the benefit of an exhibition game in Cleveland, but there’s no question the level of competition increases as he makes his first home start against the Bengals. Despite a 2-3 record, Cincinnati’s defense is capable of getting after Brady and features hard-hitting LB Vontaze Burfict to clash with the Patriots tight ends. Even though TE Tyler Eifert remains out, the Bengals should have Jeremy Hill (shoulder) back in there in an enhanced role after he carried just four times in last week’s loss at Dallas. Cincinnati was uncharacteristically pushed around by the Cowboys, so expecting it to physically answer the bell here is a given. Bill Belichick has owned Marvin Lewis in head-to-head meetings in this series, winning five of six, which includes a 3-0 mark at Foxboro. The ‘over’ is 4-2 in those games.

Baltimore at N.Y. Giants: This is one of those games that could swing a season. After opening with three straight victories, the Ravens have dropped two in a row and come into this one frustrated. Already having fired offensive coordinator Marc Trestman, Baltimore clearly doesn’t want the losing to linger. New York is bringing up the rear in the NFC East, sputtering offensively despite an arsenal of weapons. Eli Manning has replaced Odell Beckham Jr. in taking the majority of the blame for the Giants struggles, but getting into the head of ODB remains a focal point for opponents and has already been accomplished this week with Ravens veteran corner promising to fight if he’s hit after the whistle. Consider that an open invitation for Beckham to become bigger than the game, which Baltimore badly wants to bait him into. Mind games may be its best bet considering its health issues, since LB Elvis Dumervil (foot), LB CJ Mosley (thigh), S Kendrick Lewis (thigh), WRs Steve Smith Jr. (ankle) and Mike Wallace (ribs), G Marshal Yanda and T Rick Wagner are all facing injury concerns and may not be available. The Giants have issues in their secondary since Eli Apple and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie both left the Packers loss with groin injuries. Jason Pierre-Paul is suffering through the same ailment but is expected to play, while tight end Larry Donnell still has to get through concussion protocol. The Ravens are 4-1 all-time against the Giants.

Carolina at New Orleans: Consider this an NFC South elimination game. The Saints come off a bye and are at home, but beating the defending conference champs still feels like it would be an upset. Oddsmakers think so too, installing the Panthers as a road favorite despite their struggles. Cam Newton will return from a concussion suffered against Atlanta to help his team avoid what would be a disastrous 1-5 start, but a defense that was once considered one of the NFL’s best has looked ordinary at best. Drew Brees hasn’t had a problem moving a Saints offense that averages 28.5 points, the third-largest output in the league. Carolina has won the last three contests to improve to 6-4 since Newton came on board. In those last 10 meetings, these teams have scored 27 or more points on 13 occasions. The Panthers will have RB Jonathan Stewart (hamstring) back in the mix too, while New Orleans is hoping to have LBs Dannell Ellerbe and James Laurinaitis back from quad injuries that have impacted their mobility.

Pittsburgh at Miami: They’re ready to quit on Ryan Tannehill in South Florida. The fan base, that is. The team itself is a different story, since first-year Dolphins head coach Adam Gase has provided assurances that Tannehill is his guy the rest of the season as the organization is best-served giving him a full season to put his ups and downs on display. So far, Tannehill’s body of work has been mostly terrible, but his protection has often fallen apart and a lack of a running game hasn’t helped matters. Arian Foster (hamstring) should play for the first time since going out in Week 2, so Miami figure to get a boost on the ground. Tackle Branden Albert and rookie guard Laremy Tunsil also expect to return from ankle injuries, so we’ll see if the Dolphins can avoid hearing boos at home this time around. The Steelers are definitely going to be without DE Cameron Hayward (hamstring) and are likely to again be missing top LB Ryan Shazier (knee), so the defense could be vulnerable. Miami won the last meeting between these two in 2013, but hasn’t beaten Pittsburgh at home since 1998. Amusingly, the Steelers are hoping to add Hard Rock Stadium to the list since they’ve beaten the Dolphins in the same building this century no matter who held the naming rights (Sun Life, Land Shark, Pro Player).

Jacksonville at Chicago: The loser here gets stuck holding a single win, which means there’s some desperation in play. Brian Hoyer has three 300-yard passing games with multiple touchdowns each time out, so missing Jay Cutler (thumb) for another Sunday really isn’t a big deal. He led the Bears to a win over Detroit in his last home start and has benefited from a strong connection with TE Zach Miller and top wideout Alshon Jeffrey getting healthier. Rookie Jordan Howard has done a nice job replacing the injured Jeremy Langford (ankle), who also may be absent again. The Jaguars are coming off a bye week after beating Indianapolis in London and are as healthy as they’ve been all season. Rest has allowed TEs Julius Thomas and Marcedes Lewis time to heal up, so the offense will be at full strength as QB Blake Bortles looks to avoid another slow start to try and help his team escape the AFC South basement. Chicago won the last game between these teams 41-3 in Jacksonville back in 2012. The Jags are 1-2 lifetime at Soldier Field.

San Francisco at Buffalo: Colin Kaepernick will make his first start for the 49ers, adding to the drama in upstate New York. Don’t expect a friendly welcome for anyone but the Bills, who are back in town after playing conquering heroes in New England and Los Angeles to climb above .500 after an 0-2 start. Rex Ryan has gotten great play from Tyrod Taylor of late and has seen his defense overcome the extended absence of Marcell Dareus to get their act together. San Francisco’s offense has run a lot of plays under Chip Kelly, but limited success with the downfield passing game has made them predictable. The hope is that Kaepernick’s speed and ability to throw the deep ball will open things up, but he hasn’t played since the preseason finale and hasn’t appeared in a regular-season game since last November, wrapping up a truly awful run before being benched and ultimately undergoing shoulder surgery.

Los Angeles at Detroit: After pulling off consecutive upsets of the Seahawks, Bucs and Cardinals, the Rams were tamed at home by Buffalo to fall out of first in the NFC West. With Case Keenum under center, the defense is going to have to be the driving force for L.A. week in and week out and couldn’t get stops against a Bills offense thrived running the ball. After losing Ameer Abdullah, the Lions aren’t equipped to thrive similarly, although they have creatively gotten Theo Riddick the ball out of the backfield. He’s been out of practice all week with an ankle injury and could be a game-time call, so Detroit signed Justin Forsett in an effort to get someone who can run between the tackles. TE Eric Ebron (knee, ankle) has been out as well, which made the Lions’ upset of Philadelphia even more surprising. Ezekiel Ansah (ankle) could finally make it back, but the defense will be missing top LB Deandre Levy (quad) and DT Haloti Ngata. Guards Laken Tomlinson (neck) and Larry Warford (hip) are also harboring injury issues as they prepare to go up against the league’s top interior lineman, Rams DT Aaron Donald. He was missing a few friends against Buffalo since starters Michael Brockers, Robert Quinn and William Hayes were all too injured to play, and it remains to be seen who lines up alongside him in Detroit. L.A. will certainly be missing top corner Trumaine Johnson (ankle).

Cleveland at Tennessee: The Titans can reach .500 this late in a season for the first time in ’13. In fact, they can match last year’s win total if they can keep the Browns winless. Last week’s victory in South Florida saw Marcus Mariota and DeMarco Murray control the game from the backfield, putting the Dolphins in a hole that allowed the Tennessee pass rush to flex its muscle. The Browns will have Cody Kessler back under center after a chest injury knocked him out against New England, but if Josh McCown (clavicle) is still a week away, fellow rookie Kevin Hogan would be the backup. Despite forearm and hip injuries, tight end Gary Barnidge should be available for the Browns, who are already an afterthought in their own city with the Cavs starting back up and the Tribe reaching the ALCS.

Philadelphia at Washington: Rookie Carson Wentz comes off his first loss, but seems to have the right temperament to bounce back quickly. The schedule made it easy to turn the page, since this will be his first divisional game, on the road no less, against a rival. The ‘Skins have won three straight, stealing a game from the Giants to avoid an 0-3 start before handling the Browns and Ravens. There’s concern they may not have TE Jordan Reed (concussion), a key red zone target, cleared in time to participate. Washington’s secondary should be intact with Josh Norman (wrist) good to go and Bashaud Breeland (knee) returning, so Wentz has his work cut out for him as he looks to snap Philly’s three-game losing streak in this series. Lane Johnson begins serving his 10-game suspension, so the offensive line isn’t likely to be as effective as it has been.

Kansas City at Oakland: This rivalry used to be among the best in football until the Raiders hit the skids again, but it could be coming back in style. The Raiders enter this game in possession of first place in the AFC West following Denver’s Thursday night loss, so this home game provides a great opportunity to create separation within the division. Derek Carr has excelled in utilizing his many weapons, displaying tremendous improvement, and he’ll look to avoid turnovers against Marcus Peters and an aggressive Chiefs defense. Running backs are in the spotlight injury-wise, as Latavius Murray (turf toe) is still ailing and may miss a second straight. Meanwhile, Jamaal Charles is itching to play and eager to get the “training wheels” off – his words – so with Charcandrick West hurt, he may get his chance to carry the load. The Chiefs have won five of the last six over the Raiders.

Atlanta at Seattle: For my money, this is Week 6’s top matchup. The Seahawks are much healthier than they were in the season’s early stages, so this would be a perfect opportunity to prove to themselves that they’ve still got it. Conditions certainly favor Seattle given its coming off a bye while the Falcons were in Denver last Sunday and stayed out west for an extended road trip. Russell Wilson reportedly had a great week of practice and has his offensive weapons healthier than they’ve been all season as guys like Doug Baldwin and Tyler Lockett have looked tuned up. The Falcons will try and continue their eye-opening start by riding Devonte Freeman and Tevin Coleman, who combined for 286 yards in the upset of the Broncos and create huge mismatches against defense. Matt Ryan has taken advantage and proved last week that he doesn’t necessarily need Julio Jones to have a big day in order to points on the board. There are some great individual matchups here, and although they haven’t faced off since 2013, they played a memorable NFC Divisional playoff in January of ’13 that was won on a last-second Atlanta field goal at the Georgia Dome. Wilson threw for 385 yards and ran for another 60 in the loss that ended his rookie season. Atlanta has won four of five in the series, but lost 33-10 at home in the last meeting.

Dallas at Green Bay: Despite their nasty habit of squandering covers, the Packers have had a strong season. Their lone loss came in Minnesota and both sides of the ball appear to be improved, even with Aaron Rodgers not razor sharp yet. This will be a great test for their defensive line. Dallas has been able to impose its will up front and move people, doing a number on Cincinnati at home last Sunday. LT Tyron Smith is expected to make a more complete return from a back injury that limited him last week, so the Cowboys will be deeper up front. Rookie QB Dak Prescott has won two straight without Dez Bryant (knee), who looks like he may miss a third consecutive game, relying on the horses up front and fellow rookie Ezekiel Elliott, the NFL’s rushing leader. The Packers saw Eddie Lacy and James Starks suffer ankle injuries in Sunday night’s win over New York, but are hoping to have both play despite not practicing. Randall Cobb (head) should also play after sustaining a nasty helmet-to-helmet blow, suffering only a stiff neck. Green Bay has won the last five in this series.

Indianapolis at Houston: The AFC South came down to these two last season and could again, so this should be a salty, physical Sunday night game. Although they’ve lost J.J. Watt for the season, the Texans lead the division as the only team entering the week over .500. They’ve won all three of their home games, so the fact they’ve been no-shows on the road in embarrassing losses matters little here. What is of consequence is that the NFL’s leader in pass defense will have to deal with Houston native Andrew Luck, who wasn’t available either time these teams got together last season but has a five-game winning streak in the series, losing only the first time he played in his hometown. Texans corners Johnathan Joseph (concussion) and Kareem Jackson (hamstring) joined safety Quintin Demps (calf) in getting hurt at Minnesota. He’s walked out of NRG Stadium a winner in two straight and comes into this one completing 64 percent of his passes with 10 touchdowns and three picks. Counterpart Brock Osweiler has thrown more picks (7) than touchdowns (6) and comes off his worst start of the season against a Vikings defense that brings out the worst in quarterbacks. The Colts often bring out the best in them, surrendering 301 yards per game thus far. Their secondary isn’t as banged-up as it has been in recent weeks, but remains a problem area. The same can be said for Indy’s offensive line, which could have issues on the road protecting Luck.

N.Y. Jets at Arizona: The Cardinals rose from the ashes last Thursday night by winning in San Francisco and can now move back to .500 if they hold serve at home. Of course, the Jets are clinging to their own realistic postseason aspirations here, having started 1-4. It doesn’t help their cause that QB Carson Palmer has made it through concussion protocol and G Mike Iupati looks to be coming around after having his walking boot removed. New York hasn’t been as fortunate this week. Eric Decker (rotator cuff) officially went on IR, center Nick Mangold (knee), LB David Harris and DB Darrelle Revis (hamstrings) haven’t inspired confidence that they’ll be in the mix and the defense appeared rattled by another game where they were dominated. About the only thing that does favor the visitors on Monday night is history, since the Jets haven’t lost to the Cardinals since 1975. They’ve never lost in Arizona, although this will be their first trip into Glendale. New York has won six straight in the series.

Total Talk - Week 6
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com

The back-and-forth total results in the 2016 season continued last week as bettors saw the totals go 7-7 and a lot of those ‘over’ winners were helped with early points as seven games saw 27 or more points scored in the first-half. Through five weeks, the ‘over’ holds a slight edge at 40-36-1.

Tendencies to Watch

With the first quarter of the season in the books, we’re starting to see a handful of clubs define themselves as either an ‘over’ or ‘under’ team. When it comes to betting sides, many handicappers and bettors put a major emphasis on the Yards per Play for each team. For totals, I prefer to use total yards per game for both the offensive and defensive units.

Looking below, we can see that the majority of the six best ‘over’ clubs this season have moved the ball offensively and they’ve also allowed a ton of yards. The one outlier is Jacksonville, who has solid defensive numbers but the offense has created short tracks for opponents with turnovers.

2016 Total Tendencies - Over
Team OFF YPG (Rank) DEF YPG (Rank) Total Record (O/U)
Atlanta 457.4 (1) 388.8 (26) 4-1
Indianapolis 358.6 (13) 410.6 (30) 4-1
Oakland 391.6 (4) 452.6 (32) 4-1
Washington 366.0 (10) 392.0 (27) 4-1
Jacksonville 320.8 (26) 304.5 (7) 3-1
New Orleans 386.0 (6) 422.8 (31) 3-1

The Patriots and Giants are the only teams that have seen the ‘under’ connect at an 80 percent (4-1) clip this season. With Tom Brady back at quarterback, New England’s going to see its share ‘over’ winners start to cash.

2016 Total Tendencies - Under
Team OFF YPG (Rank) DEF YPG (Rank) Total Record (O/U)
New England 377.2 (7) 345.0 (13) 1-4
N.Y. Giants 350.0 (18) 358.2 (17) 1-4

I’ve included four teams below that have had mixed total results through the first month and I believe we’ll start to see the pendulum swing the other way for a couple of them. Pittsburgh’s combination of great offense and average defense usually translates into ‘over’ tickets but the Steelers have leaned ‘under’ so far due to high numbers and four games being decided by double digits.

Tennessee is 3-2 to the ‘over’ but that could easily be a 5-0 ‘under’ mark if the scoreboard didn’t count defensive and special team scores. It does, but be aware the that Titans defense is legit and the team has only allowed 38 points in the second-half this season (21 points D/ST).

2016 Total Tendencies - Teams to Watch
Team OFF YPG (Rank) DEF YPG (Rank) Total Record (O/U)
Pittsburgh 386.8 (5) 379.0 (25) 2-3
Tennessee 358.0 (14) 320.6 (10) 3-2
Green Bay 321.8 (25) 317.8 (9) 2-2
Seattle 357.5 (15) 264.0 (1) 2-2

Off the Bye

Four teams will be playing with rest this week and below are recent total notes for each club after the bye week.

Jacksonville at Chicago: The Jaguars have seen the ‘over’ go 3-1 their last four after the bye and the defense has allowed 26 PPG during this span.

New Orleans vs. Carolina: Last season, the Saints were drilled 24-6 at Houston after the bye and that result might be an anomaly. Prior to that outcome, New Orleans saw the ‘over’ go 8-1 in its previous nine with rest.

Kansas City at Oakland: Lots of folks aware of Andy Reid’s strong bye numbers (19-3 SU, 16-6 ATS. For total purposes, the Chiefs have seen the ‘under’ go 4-0 with two pushes in its last six games off the bye.

Seattle vs. Atlanta: The Seahawks have seen their totals go 3-3 after the bye since Pete Carroll took over and surprisingly their straight up record is 3-3 as well.

Divisional Battles

For the second straight week, the highest total on the board takes place in a divisional matchup.

Carolina at New Orleans: The ‘over’ has gone 7-3 in the last 10 meetings and if the high number (53½) has you a tad hesitant, make a note that the ‘over’ has gone 6-0 when these teams have seen a total in the fifties. As mentioned above, New Orleans is your perfect ‘over’ team due to a great offense and poor offense. You might be surprised to know that Carolina’s offense is ranked third in total yards (392 YPG) but it’s failed to register as much on the scoreboard (24.6 PPG).

Kansas City at Oakland: This AFC West matchup is receiving plenty of attention this week at the betting counter and the Andy Reid “bye trend” is being fully supported. As far as the total (46½) goes, these teams haven’t seen a number this high since 2005 when the Chiefs were a high-flying attack with Priest Holmes, Larry Johnson and Trent Green running the show. This Kansas City team is far removed from that juggernaut but they could improve this week against an Oakland defense (452.6 YPG) that is ranked last in yards and 25th in points (27.4). The ‘over’ has gone 4-1 in the last five encounters between the pair and the Chiefs have put up some crooked numbers during this span, averaging 32.8 PPG.

Non-Conference Action

The AFC-NFC matchups saw their totals go 3-3 last week and the ‘over’ is now 14-10 (58%) this season.

Baltimore at N.Y. Giants: If you took away the names of the QBs (Flacco, Manning) involved in this game and purely looked at this year’s numbers, then I believe we would be looking at a much lower total than 44½ posted. The Ravens (18.8 PPG) and Giants (17.8 PPG) have been a mess offensively this season while their defensive units have both improved. Until either of the QBs can find their past form, I’d be hesitant to go high here.

Jacksonville at Chicago: This game opened 47 and has been knocked down to 45½ as of Saturday morning. Neither the Jaguars (21 PPG) or Bears (17 PPG) have shown the ability to put up points consistently and both defensive units are underrated.

San Francisco at Buffalo: In my third installment of “Total Talk” this season, I touched on an angle of West Coast teams traveling to the East Coast. The ‘over’ has now gone 5-0 in those games and this situation fits. I’m not high on Buffalo’s offense at all, but San Francisco has surrendered 140 points in its last four games since opening the season with a shutout.

Under the Lights

We’ve watched 17 primetime games this season and the ‘under’ has gone 9-7-1, which includes the result from the past Thursday between Denver and San Diego.

Indianapolis at Houston: The ‘under’ has gone 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in this series but make a note that the last three encounters at NRG Stadium have all gone ‘over’ the number. The Texans defense has been incredible at home this season (15.3 PPG) but Colts QB Andrew Luck has gone 5-1 versus Houston in his career while tossing 14 TDs to 3 INTs. Houston’s offense isn’t a juggernaut and it’s hard to imagine the unit being stopped by a Colts defense (29.6 PPG, 410 YPG) that hasn’t been able to slow anybody down.

N.Y. Jets at Arizona: This total seems a tad high (47) considering the offensive form for both clubs yet the oddsmakers respect Arizona’s offense at home, especially with QB Carson Palmer back under center. The question ‘over’ bettors need to ask is if they believe Jets QB Ryan Fitzpatrick can generate any offense. The Jets are averaging 11 PPG the last three weeks and Arizona’s defense (15.7 PPG) has been much better at home. These teams haven’t met since 2012 when the Jets beat the Cardinals 7-6 at home.

Fearless Predictions

We had some close calls last week but fortunately on the right side with three of the wagers and that kept us positive ($190). Five weeks in the books and the bankroll ($450) is nearing five digits of profit. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Pittsburgh-Miami Over 48½

Best Under: Cleveland-Tennessee Under 43½

Best Team Total: Carolina Over 28

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Pittsburgh-Miami Over 39½
San Francisco-Buffalo Over 35
Dallas-Green Bay Under 56½

Pick Six - Week 6
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

Following a 1-5 Week 4, things improved a little bit, but still an underachieving 2-4 mark with the Bills and Redskins the only winners.

Bengals at Patriots (-9, 47½)

Cincinnati
Record: 2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS, 3-2 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 50/1

The Bengals were wiped out early at Dallas last Sunday in a 28-14 defeat as 2 ½-point road favorites. Cincinnati fell behind, 28-0 before scoring a pair of late touchdowns, as the two victories by the Bengals have come against the Jets and Dolphins, who are a combined 2-8. The offense has been disappointing in Cincinnati, as the Bengals have been held to 17 points or less in their three losses, while scoring just one touchdown against Miami. The Bengals are playing with major revenge after getting blasted at Gillette Stadium as 2 ½-point road favorites in 2014 by a 43-17 count.

New England
Record: 4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS, 4-1 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 7/2

The Patriots were blanked by the Bills in the final game of Tom Brady’s suspension in Week 4. New England rebounded in a huge way in Brady’s debut last Sunday at Cleveland as the three-time Super Bowl champion threw for 406 yards and three touchdowns in a 33-13 rout as 10-point favorites. The Patriots’ defense has been terrific the last three weeks by allowing a total of 29 points and cashing three straight UNDERS. New England has won 26 of its past 28 home games with Brady under center since 2013, as the Patriots own an 18-8-2 ATS mark in this span.

Best Bet: New England -9

Ravens at Giants (-3½, 44½)

Baltimore
Record: 3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS, 3-2 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 50/1

The Ravens jumped out to a 3-0 record before stumbling at home the last two weeks with losses to the Raiders and Redskins by a combined seven points. Baltimore changed things up from an offensive perspective by firing coordinator Marc Trestman and replacing him with Marty Mornhinweg as the Ravens have scored 19 points or fewer in three games. In last week’s 16-10 setback to Washington, the Ravens found the end zone less than five minutes into the game, but managed only three points in the final 55 minutes. Baltimore is listed as an underdog for the first time this season, as it posted a 5-3 ATS mark when receiving points in 2015.

New York
Record: 2-3 SU, 1-3-1 ATS, 4-1 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 60/1

The Giants squeezed past the Cowboys and Saints in their first two games, but New York hasn’t found the win column recently by dropping three in a row. Granted, New York had to face Minnesota and Green Bay on the road in primetime in the last two weeks, but the Giants put up a combined 26 points in those defeats. The Giants have lost three straight home games to AFC opponents since 2014, including setbacks as an underdog to the Patriots and Jets last season. New York has lost two of the past three meetings with Baltimore since getting routed by the Ravens in Super Bowl XXXV in 2001.

Best Bet: Baltimore +3½

Eagles (-3, 44½) at Redskins

Philadelphia
Record: 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS, 2-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 30/1

Rookie Carson Wentz suffered his first NFL loss following a 3-0 start in Philadelphia’s 24-23 defeat at Detroit last Sunday as 3 ½-point favorites. The Eagles erased a 21-7 deficit to take a 23-21 lead in the fourth quarter, but Detroit took control in the final two minutes with the go-ahead field goal. Wentz was intercepted for the first time this season on a desperation toss on Philadelphia’s final possession, as the Eagles play their first divisional opponent on Sunday. Last season, the Eagles were swept by the Redskins, including a 23-20 defeat in D.C. as three-point favorites last October.

Washington
Record: 3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS, 4-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 40/1

The Redskins have rebounded from an 0-2 start to win three consecutive games, including road victories in this span over the Giants and Ravens. Washington has been outrushed in all five games this season, but put together its best defensive effort of 2016 by limiting Baltimore to 306 yards in a 16-10 triumph last Sunday. The Redskins have won seven of its last eight contests since last November when listed in the underdog role with the lone loss coming to Pittsburgh in Week 1 of this season.

Best Bet: Philadelphia -3

Chiefs (-1½, 46½) at Raiders

Kansas City
Record: 2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS, 2-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 30/1

The Chiefs are fresh off the bye week after getting pounded in Week 4 at Pittsburgh, 43-14 to drop to 0-2 away from Arrowhead Stadium. Each of the last two seasons, Kansas City has returned from the bye to face an AFC West rival on the road and the Chiefs came out victorious each time. In 2015, the Chiefs dominated the Broncos as 3 ½-point underdogs, 29-13, while picking off Denver five times in the rout. Kansas City has seen success recently against Oakland by winning five of the past six matchups, including three consecutive victories at the Coliseum.

Oakland
Record: 4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS, 4-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 16/1

The Raiders continue to roll atop the AFC West after picking up its third straight win last Sunday in a 34-31 triumph over the Chargers. Oakland failed to cover as 3 ½-point favorites, but Derek Carr put up over 300 yards passing for the second time (319), while improving his touchdown to interception ratio to 11/2 on the season. The Raiders dropped to 1-2 ATS as a favorite, but with the money flipping towards the Chiefs, Oakland is now a slight under. In Jack Del Rio’s tenure as head coach, the Raiders have compiled a solid 9-4 ATS mark in the underdog role, but all four losses have come at home.

Best Bet: Oakland +1½

Falcons at Seahawks (-6½, 44½)

Atlanta
Record: 4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS, 4-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 20/1

Past the undefeated Vikings, the Falcons are the hottest team in the NFC by winning four consecutive games since losing the opener to Tampa Bay. In the past four weeks, Atlanta has been listed as an underdog four times and has won each time, including three times away from the Georgia Dome. Last week, the Falcons dominated the defending Super Bowl champion Broncos, 23-16 as 3 ½-point ‘dogs as Atlanta built a 17-point lead in the fourth quarter. Since the start of last season, the Falcons have put together an incredible 9-2 SU/ATS record in the underdog role, including a 6-2 SU/ATS mark on the highway.

Seattle
Record: 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS, 2-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 7/1

The Seahawks are back from their bye week following back-to-back wins over the 49ers and Jets. Seattle’s three victories have come against teams that have combined for a 3-12 record, as the Seahawks own a 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS record at CenturyLink Field. The defense continues to excel in Seattle, allowing 18 points or less in all four games, but the Seahawks have hit the OVER in five of their previous eight home contests. Seattle has lost four of the past five meetings with Atlanta since 2007, as the Falcons are making their first trip to the Pacific Northwest since a 30-28 victory in 2011.

Best Bet: Seattle -6½

Cowboys at Packers (-4½, 47½)

Dallas
Record: 4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS, 3-2 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 18/1

Since dropping a one-point decision to the Giants in the season opener, the Cowboys have roared back to pull off four straight wins under rookie quarterback Dak Prescott. The fourth-round pick from Mississippi State has not thrown an interception in five games, while completing 69% of his passes in place of the injured Tony Romo. The Cowboys dominated the Bengals as a short home underdog last week, 28-14, led by another rookie, Ezekiel Elliott. The former Ohio State standout rushed for over 100 yards for the third consecutive game (134), while finding the end zone twice. The UNDER has hit in eight of the past 10 road games for Dallas since the start of last season, including in a 28-7 defeat at Lambeau Field last December.

Green Bay
Record: 3-1 SU, 2-1-1 ATS, 2-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 5/1

The Packers are in the midst of four consecutive games at Lambeau Field, as Green Bay is coming off home victories over Detroit and New York. In last Sunday night’s 23-16 win over the Giants, the Packers’ defense held New York out of the end zone for the first 57 minutes, while limiting New York to 221 yards. Green Bay has won 16 of its past 19 home games since 2014, as the Packers have covered 11 times in this span. The Packers have owned the Cowboys recently by winning five straight meetings since 2009, including four victories in a row at Lambeau Field.

Best Bet: Green Bay -4½

SNF - Colts at Texans
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

The Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans have both been major disappointments this season and we'll get to see what 2016 resume gets muddied more during Sunday Night Football where Houston is a three-point home favorite. Quarterback Andrew Luck has won his last six starts against the Texans, but he's been in a major funk the last two season regarding execution and also leads the NFL by being sacked 20 times this year while starting 2-3.

The Texans lead the AFC South a 3-2 record, but there are still grumblings about the performance of the team. There were high expectations placed on the Texans. Fans were talking Super Bowl, which is being played in Houston this season. New QB Brock Osweiler, who signed for $72 million in the off-season, has taken much of the ire from fans. He's won all three home games, but looked bad in road loses at New England and Minnesota -- who hasn't. He's completed 57 percent of his passes for six TDs and 7 interceptions.

Despite the Texans struggles offensively with just 310 yards per game, their defense has still been very good holding opponents to 300 YPG, despite superstar J.J. Watt being out for the year. The Colts defense gives up 29.6 points per game and 410 YPG.

WHAT THE LUCK IS GOING ON?

Before last season, the Colts were expected to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl and Andrew Luck was supposed to take a step forward in becoming an elite NFL QB on the A-list. But they sputtered out of the gate to a 1-5 start and then he was injured (kidney & abdominal) in a home win against Denver and it cut his season short. This season, they've improved to a 2-3 mark, but trailed in the fourth quarter of both wins, which were each at Indy. Their losses have been to Detroit (39-35), at Denver (34-20) and against the Jaguars (30-27) in London.

LINE MOVEMENT

CG Technology sports books in Las Vegas opened Houston -3.5 in its Sunday night openers and by Monday morning they were at - (-120). By Thursday, the line was down to 3-flat were its been since Friday evening. The total has been the real mover with sharp action involved.

"Our top two total plays have been the Jaguars-Bears 'under' (47) and the Colts-Texans 'over' (46.5); we're at 48 on that game now," CG risk management VP Jason Simbal said.

The money-line has been as high as Houston -165, but dog money at +145 has pushed it down to -150/+130.

When CG books opened lines on every game back in April, the Texans were -1.5 for this one.

PUBLIC OPINION

The best way to see what the public is feeling for a game is to understand what they're collectively jumping on with parlay wagers. William Hill's 108 sports books take one of the highest volume of parlay action in Nevada. On all wagers involving the Indy/Houston point-spread, the Texans have been wagered in 58 percent of all tickets printed and have 67 percent of all cash taken in.

PROPER NUMBER

In my personal ratings, I have the Texans a half-point better than the Colts on a neutral field and I'll give the Texans 3-points for a home field advantage on the basis of winning and covering all three home games thus far and the Colts failing to cover the number in four of their last five road games. Let's call the proper number Houston -3.5.

RECENT HISTORY

The Texans 16-10 win (Brandon Weeden at QB) at Indianapolis (Matt Hasselbeck at QB) in December ended a six-game win streak for the Colts. The Colts went 5-0-1 ATS in those games. Nine of the past 11 meetings in Houston have gone 'over' the total.

TRENDS

-- Indy is 17-6-1 ATS in its last 24 vs AFC South teams.
-- Indy is 1-4 ATS in its last five road games.

-- Houston 6-0 ATS in its last six against AFC South teams.
-- Houston has gone Over total in its last nine games played in October.

SNF PROPS FROM WESTGATE

-- First score of game will be: TD -165
-- Total passing yards by Andrew Luck: 279.5
-- Total recieving yards by T.Y. Hilton: 77.9
-- Total completions by Brock Osweiler: 21.5
-- Will DeAndre Hopkins score a TD: YES -120
-- Total sacks by both teams: 5

EARLY WEEK 7 SPREADS

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook posts early numbers for the next week every Tuesday and opened the Colts at Tennessee as a pick 'em. Let's give Tennessee a 2.5-point home edge, which is what the rating difference is between the two squads. Now let's take a look at recent spreads within the division. Houston was -4 at home (they get 3-points) against the Titans two weeks ago, the same week the Jaguars were getting +1 from the Colts on a neutral field. The Texans are +6.5 at Denver (MNF) next week -- the Colts were +6 there in Week 2.

ODDS TO WIN DIVISION

The Colts and Texans opened in May at the Westgate as 3/2 co-favorites (Bet $100 to win $150) to win the AFC South, but now Houston is alone at the top at 10/11 odds (Bet $100 to win $91). Indianapolis is now at 9/4 odds. The Titans have some respect at 5/1 and the Jaguars don't at 7/1. Jacksonville was considered 'the team to watch' as a riser from its awful class, and were given 7/2 odds to win at the beginning of the season.

SUPER BOWL ODDS

The Colts were 20/1 when odds were first posted in February, but you can get 60/1 now at the Westgate. The Texans were 40/1, before signing Osweiler, and they're still at 40/1.

Here's how they stack up against the top AFC teams:
Patriots (7/2)
Steelers (6/1)
Broncos (12/1)
Raiders (16/1 - Lots of risk)
Chiefs (30/1)
Ravens (50/1)
Bengals (50/1)

Week 6 Betting Tidbits
By Covers.com

San Francisco 49ers at Buffalo Bills (-8, 44)

* Controversial quarterback Colin Kaepernick makes his first start in nearly a year as the San Francisco 49ers attempt to halt their string of four consecutive losses when they visit the streaking Buffalo Bills on Sunday. Kaepernick, who has become more notable for his protest of the national anthem than his ability on the field, will start for the first time since a setback against the then-St. Louis Rams on Nov. 1 as he replaces Blaine Gabbert under center.

* Buffalo is riding a three-game winning streak during which it has yielded fewer than 20 points in each contest. The Bills have scored 30 or more points twice on their run, which began after the firing of offensive coordinator Greg Roman. Buffalo is seeking its first string of four straight victories since opening the 2008 season at 4-0.

LINE HISTORY: The Bills opened as -7.5 home favorites but that line jumped to -9 when Kaepernick was announced as the starter for San Francisco. The spread sat at -9 for most of the week until coming down to -8 on Saturday morning. The total opened at 44 and hasn't moved all week. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* 49ers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss.
* Bills are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.
* Over is 5-1 in 49ers last 6 road games.
* Under is 5-1 in Bills last 6 games following a straight up win.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Chicago Bears (-1.5, 46)

* Jacksonville has been idle since holding off Indianapolis in a game at London two weeks ago. The victory was much needed for a team which hoped to earn a playoff berth for the first time since 2007, but opened the season with losses in three games that it felt it could win. Jacksonville changed its blocking scheme last game and it paid immediate dividends as the Jaguars ran for 136 yards against the Colts, which was nearly as much as it mustered in its first three games.

* Brian Hoyer will make his fourth straight start as the Chicago Bears host the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday with both teams searching for their second win of the season. Hoyer, who replaced Jay Cutler after the veteran signal-caller suffered a thumb injury, has been superb in notching three straight 300-yard passing games without an interception but the Bears are still off to their worst start since 2005.

LINE HISTORY: The Bears opened as 2-point home favorites and by Tuesday morning that line has jumped up to -2.5. On Friday morning that line dropped drastically to -1 and has since began to trickle back in the Bears' direction at -1.5. The total opened at 47 and has dropped a full point to sit at 46 heading into Sunday. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Jaguars are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 road games.
* Bears are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
* Over is 4-0 in Jaguars last 4 games in October.
* Over is 5-1 in Bears last 6 games following a straight up loss.
* Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions (-3, 43.5)

* The Rams experienced the opposite in Week 5, losing 30-19 to visiting Buffalo in spite of a season-high 345 total yards – in large part because of three turnovers, the last of which was an interception by Case Keenum that was returned for a touchdown. “We made some plays on third down, we had nine explosive plays against a really good defense, and we had 23 first downs,” Rams coach Jeff Fisher told reporters. “You can take the 32nd in the league and write all you want about it, but this offense is improving.” The Rams have won two of the last three meetings, including a 21-14 victory last season in St. Louis in which Todd Gurley rushed for 140 yards and two touchdowns.

* The Detroit Lions haven’t been able to maintain much success on offense, but they might not need too much production from that side of the ball to get back to .500. The Lions aim for a second consecutive victory when they host the offensively challenged Los Angeles Rams on Sunday. The Lions snapped a three-game skid with a 24-23 win over previously undefeated Philadelphia last week despite another uneven performance from the offense.

LINE HISTORY: The Detroit Lions opened the betting week as 3-point home favorites and the total hit the betting board at 44. Heading into Sunday morning, neither number has moved all week. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Rams are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a double-digit loss at home.
* Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in October.
* Under is 8-0 in Rams last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
* Over is 6-1 in Lions last 7 games on fieldturf.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Miami Dolphins (+7.5, 48 )

* While Antonio Brown (NFL-leading 37 receptions, league high-tying five TDs) is a constant, the Steelers are expected to usher slot receiver Eli Rogers into the lineup with Sammie Coates (hand laceration) in question after posting a career-high 139 yards and two touchdowns in a 31-13 win over the Jets. "I feel like I was on the verge of becoming a factor a team needed to account for," said Rogers, who has nine receptions for 100 yards and one touchdown in three contests. Mammoth tight end Jesse James had a season-high six receptions last week and has found the end zone in three of his last four games.

* Defensive coordinator Vance Joseph hasn't liked what he's seen from Pro Bowl defensive end Mario Williams and cornerback Byron Maxwell this season, saying the former "has got to play harder; he’s got to play better," while stating the latter "has not played overall well." Williams only has seven tackles and one sack this season, without registering one of either last week as Miami was gashed for 235 yards on the ground in a 30-17 loss to Tennessee. Maxwell was benched two games ago, but a knee injury to rookie Xavien Howard will send him back into the lineup with the enormous task of shadowing Brown rumored to be on his plate.

LINE HISTORY: The Pittsburgh Steelers opened the betting week as 7.5-point road favorite at Miami. The spread dropped to the key number of 7 briefly on Saturday morning but was quickly bet back up to 7.5 by Saturday afternoon. The total opened at 48, was reduced as low as 47 during the week, and settled back to the opening number of 48 heading into Sunday. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Steelers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games in October.
* Dolphins are 4-17 ATS in their last 21 vs. AFC.
* Under is 6-1 in Steelers last 7 vs. AFC.
* Over is 6-1 in Dolphins last 7 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.

Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots (-7.5, 47.5)

* Two of Cincinnati's losses came to division rival Pittsburgh and defending Super Bowl champion Denver, but last week's no-show was startling as it fell behind by 28 points in the third quarter at Dallas. Quarterback Andy Dalton tops the AFC with 1,503 yards and No. 1 target A.J. Green has a conference-leading 518 yards, but the absence of injured tight end Tyler Eifert and an inconsistent running game continues to plague the offense. Running back Jeremy Hill was limited to 12 yards on four carries after aggravating a shoulder injury, but is expected to play Sunday. Former Patriots wideout Brandon LaFell is coming off an eight-catch, two-touchdown effort in Dallas.

* Brady aired it out 40 times last week and immediately established a rapport with No. 2 tight end Martellus Bennett, who had six receptions for 67 yards and three touchdowns. Tight end Rob Gronkowski, who missed the first two games due to a hamstring injury and had one catch through the first four contests, broke out with five receptions for 109 yards at Cleveland. Offseason acquisition Chris Hogan also made an impact with the return of Brady, hauling in four passes for 114 yards. New England ranks 13th overall in total defense, two spots below Cincinnati, but the Patriots are fourth in the league with an average of 14.8 points allowed, more than seven fewer than the Bengals.

LINE HISTORY: The Patriots opened as 8-point home favorites and, other than a brief bump to -8.5, the spread was steady all week until Saturday when the Pats' line was reduced to -7.5. The total hit the board at 47 and rose slightly to 47.5 heading into Sunday. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Bengals are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games.
* Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
* Under is 7-1 in Bengals last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
* Under is 5-1 in Patriots last 6 games overall.

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (+2.5, 53)

* The Panther announced on Saturday that quarterback Cam Newton will return for Sunday's game against the Saints. Newton suffered a concussion during the Panthers’ 48-33 loss at Atlanta in Week 4 and missed Monday night’s 17-14 setback against Tampa Bay, which dropped Carolina to 1-4 a year after it won its first 14 games en route to a Super Bowl appearance. Along with Newton, the Panthers hope to get running back Jonathan Stewart (hamstring) back on Sunday, but they could be without receiver Kelvin Benjamin (knee).

* New Orleans ranks last in the league in total defense and 31st in scoring defense, but it held San Diego to 38 rushing yards and forced three turnovers. They’ve had an especially tough time stopping the pass, however, which could be a problem if Newton is able to go. Drew Brees and the offense have been boom-or-bust, putting up 507 and 474 total yards in two games but being held under 300 in the other two.

LINE HISTORY: The Panthers opened as 3-point road favorites and during the week that line was dropped to 2.5. The total hit the betting board at 53 and hasn't moved all week. Can Newton's participation was factored into the lines right from the beginning of the week. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Panthers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games.
* Saints are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a bye week.
* Over is 6-1 in Panthers last 7 games on fieldturf.
* Over is 7-0-1 in Saints last 8 home games.
* Panthers are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 meetings in New Orleans.

Baltimore Ravens at New York Giants (-3.5, 44.5)

* Mornhinweg is expected to put more emphasis on the running game in an effort to open up more play-action passes. Flacco enters Week 6 leading the NFL in passing attempts with 216 but is 31st among 32 qualifying quarterbacks with an average of 5.94 yards per attempt and has connected with receivers on only 12 passes of 20 or more yards. The defense remains solid but could be without a key contributor in linebacker C.J. Mosley, who leads the team with three interceptions and is second with 29 tackles but is dealing with a hamstring injury suffered last Sunday and has not practiced this week.

* Manning is having trouble developing a connection with mercurial receiver Odell Beckham Jr., who caught his first touchdown pass last week but has only 27 receptions despite 51 targets. Manning also could use some help from a running game that is missing Shane Vereen (triceps) and Rashad Jennings (thumb), who "has a better chance of playing this week than he had last week," coach Ben McAdoo told reporters after Wednesday's practice. The Giants have issues on the back end of the defense as well, with cornerbacks Eli Apple and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie both questionable due to groin injuries.

LINE HISTORY: The Giants opened as 3-point favorites and that point spread held steady on the key number all week until Saturday when the line was bumped up to -3.5. The total hit the board at 43.5 and heading into Sunday morning the current number is 44.5. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Ravens are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.
* Giants are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
* Under is 4-1 in Ravens last 5 games following a straight up loss.
* Under is 4-1 in Giants last 5 games overall.

Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans (-7.5, 43.5)

* Things are so bad for the Cleveland Browns that they've used five different quarterbacks and brought in embattled former Baylor coach Art Briles to help an offense clearly in disarray. The Browns, who have lost seven straight and 14 of their last 15 games, are the NFL's only winless team as they visit the Tennessee Titans on Sunday. Briles was fired by Baylor amid a sexual assault scandal involving several members of the school's football team and will serve as an offensive adviser for the Browns.

* For some reason Mariota has been a better quarterback on the road than he is at home (11 TDs, 12 interceptions, 76.7 passer rating at home; 15 TDs, 3 interceptions and a 100.6 rating on the road). DeMarco Murray, who leads the NFL with 31 rushing touchdowns and is second with 4,129 yards since 2013, has helped turn Tennessee into an efficient ball-control offense with 461 yards on the ground for the NFL's second-ranked rushing offense. Sunday begins the first of three straight home games for the Titans, who promise not to look past the Browns. "We're not looking at them as a bad opponent, or any of these teams coming up, but it's definitely an opportunity to get some wins," said Tennessee defensive tackle Karl Klug.

LINE HISTORY: The Titans opened as 7-point home favorites against the struggling Browns and by the end of the week that number was up to -7.5. The total hit the board at 44 and came down slightly to 43.5 heading into Sunday. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Browns are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
* Titans are 2-9-2 ATS in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
* Under is 5-0 in Browns last 5 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
* Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins (+3, 45)

* Running back Ryan Mathews looks to atone for his costly fumble in the fourth quarter against Detroit when he faces Washington, versus which he scored in his last encounter and looks to exploit a defense yielding an NFL third-worst 130 yards per game on the ground. Jordan Matthews has been held in check with just six catches over his last three games, but hauled in that many receptions for 104 yards and a touchdown in his last meeting with the Redskins. The 24-year-old didn't face Josh Norman in that contest, but was limited to just three catches for 14 yards by the stud cornerback in a 27-16 loss to the Carolina Panthers last season.

* DeSean Jackson has mustered just four catches in his last two games but could get untracked versus his former team, against which he has 13 receptions for 283 yards and a touchdown in three games since leaving the Eagles following the 2013 season. Jackson currently is in a contract year and revealed that his once ice-cold relationship with Philadelphia has thawed, most noticeably after Doug Pederson replaced Chip Kelly as the team's coach. Fellow wideout Pierre Garcon found the end zone last week and has scored in each of his last two encounters with the Eagles. Running back Matt Jones was limited to just 31 yards on 14 carries in Sunday's 16-10 win over Baltimore, and will face a third-ranked defense allowing just 73.3 yards per game on the ground.

LINE HISTORY: The Eagles opened the betting week as 2-point road faves and that line gradually crept up throughout the week to settle on the key number of 3 heading into Sunday. The total opened at 44.5 and was bumped up to 45 on Saturday morning. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
* Redskins are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
* Over is 8-0 in Eagles last 8 vs. NFC.
* Over is 7-0 in Redskins last 7 games on grass.
* Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders (+1.5, 46)

* The Chiefs are hoping their bye week has helped them recover from a 43-14 trouncing at the hands of Pittsburgh in Week 4. Kansas City has a winning streak on the line Sunday, as it has captured six consecutive meetings with AFC West rivals. Alex Smith has been a major factor in Kansas City's recent success against the Raiders, completing 61 percent of his passes with 13 touchdowns and only two interceptions en route to posting a 5-1 record. Smith has been even better in Oakland, recording nine TD passes without a pick while registering a 68-percent completion rate.

* The Oakland Raiders look to extend their winning streak to four games when they host a bitter rival in the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday. Oakland has been one of the biggest surprises in the NFL thus far, entering Week 6 tied with Denver atop the AFC West thanks to a perfect 3-0 road record and its ability to pull out close games. Each of the Raiders' five contests this year has been decided by seven points or fewer, with their four victories coming by a total of 12. Oakland has not had much success of late against division-rival Kansas City, which has won five of the last six meetings.

LINE HISTORY: The Raiders opened as 2-point home favorites which was quickly reduced to -1.5 on Monday morning. On Tuesday morning the line dropped all of the way down to a pick 'em and the spread fully jumped the fence to the Chiefs' side on Thursday to 1.5 - which is where it sits coming into Sunday. The total opened at 46.5 and is currently 46. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Chiefs are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
* Raiders are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games.
* Over is 5-1 in Chiefs last 6 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
* Under is 15-1 in Raiders last 16 games in Week 6.

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers (-4.5, 47.5)

* Ezekiel Elliott has run roughshod over the NFL to begin his rookie season, but the fourth overall pick of the 2016 draft will face his sternest test to date on Sunday as his Dallas Cowboys visit the Green Bay Packers and their top-ranked run defense. "Always excited for a challenge, that's what competitors love," said Elliott, who leads the league with 546 rushing yards after rolling up 134 on the ground with two touchdowns as Dallas won its fourth straight last Sunday. Dak Prescott had a pair of touchdowns (one rushing, one throwing) last week and has an NFL rookie-record 155 passing attempts without an interception, prompting many in the rabid fan base to question whether he should remain at the helm when veteran quarterback Tony Romo returns from his back injury.

* While Elliott is averaging a robust 5.01 yards per attempt, the stingy Packers are yielding just 2.0 per carry and 42.8 per game - although they have some questions within their own backfield. Eddie Lacy is uncertain if he'll play on Sunday after exiting last week's 23-16 win over the New York Giants with an ailing ankle and backup James Starks is nursing a knee issue and dealing with a death in the family. The only two running backs on the roster, Lacy and Starks combined for 195 rushing yards and two touchdowns in Green Bay's 28-7 rout of Dallas on Dec. 13. Aaron Rodgers hasn't looked as dominant as in prior years, as his 56.1 completion percentage in 2016 is a far cry from the 65.9 percent he averaged from 2008-2014. "I've got to be more accurate, and I will," Rodgers said of Green Bay's 27th-ranked passing offense.

LINE HISTORY: The Green Bay Packers opened the week at -4. The point spread wobbled throughout the week between -4 and -4.5 and sits at the latter heading into Sunday morning. The total opened at 46.5 and has gone up to 47.5. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Cowboys are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games on grass.
* Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.
* Under is 7-1 in Cowboys last 8 games on grass.
* Under is 10-1 in Packers last 11 games following a straight up win.

Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5, 44.5)

* Any questions of whether the Atlanta Falcons' fast start was somewhat of a fluke were put to rest last week following a convincing road victory over the reigning Super Bowl champions. Life won't get any easier for the Falcons, who put a four-game winning streak on the line when they head to the Pacific Northwest for a matching against the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday. Quarterback Matt Ryan leads the league's No. 1-ranked offense into Seattle, topping the NFL in passing yards (1,740) and passer rating (121.6) while ranking second with 12 touchdowns. Stud wide receiver Julio Jones had a quiet week against Denver after hauling in 12 receptions for 300 yards and a touchdown in the drubbing of Carolina.

* Seattle managed only one touchdown in splitting its first two games of the season but rebounded to put up 64 points in back-to-back victories over San Francisco and the New York Jets. Despite playing with a sprained knee against the Jets, Wilson threw for 309 yards and three touchdowns and says he feels great following the additional rest. While Christine Michael continues to carry the running game in place of an injured Thomas Rawls, the biggest surprise has been the return to health by tight end Jimmy Graham, who is coming off consecutive six-catch, 100-yard games. Seattle allows 13.5 points per game and owns the league's top-ranked defense (264 yards per game).

LINE HISTORY: The Seattle Seahawks opened as 6-point home favorites and waivered between -6 and -6.5 all week before taking a jump up to the key number of -7 on Saturday evening. The total opened at 45.5 and dropped a full point to 44.5 on Saturday morning. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
* Seahawks are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games in Week 6.
* Under is 6-0 in Falcons last 6 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
* Over is 8-2-1 in Seahawks last 11 games in Week 6.

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (-3, 48.5)

* Luck threw a 35-yard touchdown pass with just over 3 1/2 minutes to play in a 29-23 win over Chicago last week to prevent the Colts from dropping to 1-4. "We needed to get that taste out of our mouth. We needed a win," Luck said. Winning cures all in this league." Luck has thrown for 10 touchdowns against only three interceptions while tying for fourth in the league with 1,469 yards passing, but he also has been sacked an NFL-high 20 times behind Indianapolis' shaky offensive line.

* The Houston Texans have been dismal on the road but look to remain perfect at home when they host the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday night in an early-season showdown for first place in the AFC South. Houston has won all three contests at home to hold a one-game edge atop the division, but it has lost six of the last seven matchups against the Colts. The Texans will attempt to rebound from a 31-13 drubbing at Minnesota in which they were limited to 214 total yards and failed to score a touchdown until the final four minutes. Houston snapped a six-game losing streak in the series with a 16-10 home win on Dec. 20, but that was without quarterback Andrew Luck in Indianapolis' lineup.

LINE HISTORY: The Houston Texans opened as 3.5-point home favorites and that line was immediately reduced to -3 on Monday morning and hasn't moved for the rest of the week. The total hit the betting board at 46 and rose sharply to 48.5 entering Sunday morning. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
* Texans are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC South.
* Over is 7-1 in Colts last 8 games on grass.
* Over is 9-0 in Texans last 9 games in October.
* Over is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings in Houston.

NFL: Streak, Tips, Notes
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Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks

Falcons (4-1 SU/ATS) riding high behind the hot hand of Matt Ryan fly into Seattle on a four game win streak including a hard-fought 23-16 win at Denver last week covering as +3.5 point underdogs. Ryan and company are averaging a league-best 35.0 points/game on 457.1 total yards split between 333.4 passing, 124.0 rushing yards/game. Defensively, Falcons are a work in progress giving up 28.0 points/game on 388.8 total yards but did come up huge in Denver

Seahawks (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) well-rested after getting a bye in this past week following their 27-17 win at Jets in Week 4 bring to the table one of the leagues top scoring defenses (13.5) on a league best 264.0 yards/game allowed. Seahawks offense however, is averaging a modest 19.8 points on 357.5 total yards.

Current odds at Sports Interaction has Seahawks -6.5 point home favorite with the total set at 45.0.

Going into Seattle is never easy, but this Atlanta squad is certainly up for the challenge. Falcons getting +6.5 points of offense will have underdog gamblers taking a close look. That's because, Falcons have thrived as underdogs covering 6 straight and 13 of the past 16 in the roll including 8-2 in unfriendly territory. Those underdog gamblers will also be quick to point out Falcons are 7-2 against the betting line as underdogs following an upset win the previous effort. Additionally, Seattle has not been a peg to hang your hopes on in this situation. Seahawks are ridding a 3-6 ATS slide off a 'BYE Week', 0-3-1 ATS skid in front of the home audience hosting a team with a winning road record.

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers

The Dallas Cowboys and the Green Bay Packers will face off at Lambeau Field on Sunday at 4:25 PM EST. Both teams have played well up to this point, with just one loss each so far this season.

The Cowboys are 4-1 after a 28-14 win over the Cincinnati Bengals last week. Once again, they were led by rookies: quarterback Dak Prescott was 18-of-24 for 227 yards. He also scored a passing and rushing touchdown. Fellow rookie, Ezekiel Elliott, ran 15 times for 134 yards and scored two touchdowns.

The Packers are 3-1 after a 23-16 win over the New York Giants at home, but Aaron Rodgers was up and down. He was 23-of-45 for 259 yards and two touchdowns, but he also threw two picks. He hasn’t finished a season with a completion percentage below 60.7 in any of the last nine years, but he’s currently at just 56.1 so far this season.

The Packers are laying four points for Sunday’s game and are 7-3 SU (five wins in a row) and 6-4 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Cowboys, who are 3-7 SU (four straight losses) and 3-6 ATS in their last 10 in Green Bay.