NFL Week 7
Bears (3-3) vs Buccaneers (4-2) (London) - Bears scored 30-34-39 points in their three wins, with a TD on defense or special teams in all three games- they scored 13-17-13 in losses. Bucs were outscored 41-3 in first half of their two road games this season- five of their six games were decided by 7 or less points. Chicago is 10-4-1 vs number in last 15 games where spread was 3 or less points; Tampa Bay is 3-7-2 in its last 12. Teams used to be division rivals; Bucs are 3-2 in series since then, with last three meetings all decided by 3 points, the last two going OT. Bucs are 19-13 vs spread in game following their last 32 wins; Bears are 7-6 after their last 13 wins, but 0-2 this year. NFC North teams are 10-6 vs spread in non-divisional games; NFC South teams are 8-8. Bears are 3-6 in last nine pre-bye games (2-4 last six as pre-bye favorite); Bucs lost 35-7/38-13 in last two pre-bye games (2-7 last nine as pre-bye dog).
Redskins (3-2) @ Panthers (1-5) – Who gets starting nod at QB for Washington after Grossman’s 9-22, 4-INT nightmare Sunday? Carolina allowed 28+ points in all five losses; their only win came on rainy day here, only game they’ve been favored to win this year. Panthers are 7-3-1 vs spread last 11 times they were favored by 3 or less points; their defense is having trouble getting off field- opponents converted 19 of last 28 3rd down plays. Home side won last six series games, with Redskins losing 20-17/20-17 in last two visits here, their only losses in nine series games (eight of nine decided by 4 or less points). Carolina lost 21-7/23-6 in last two pre-bye games- they’re 0-5-1 as a pre-bye favorite. NFC East road teams are 5-2-1 vs spread in non-divisional games; NFC South home teams are 5-3, home favorites 3-2. Last four Washington games stayed under total, with totals of 34-27 in two road games; four of six Panther games went over.
Seahawks (2-3) @ Browns (2-3) - Mike Holmgren runs the Browns now; he ran Seahawk franchise for long time before that, so this game probably has little extra in it for Cleveland. Seattle is 7-20 vs spread in its last 27 games as road dog (3-7 if road dog of 3 or less points), 5-17 in its last 22 post-bye games- they covered last three games as an underdog, after losing first two games by combined score of 57-17. Hawks came east and upset the Giants before the bye- they have seven takeaways in their two wins (+3), none in three losses (-5). Browns scored 17-13-17 points in last three games, needing last-minute TD to beat the dreadful Dolphins; they’re 7-12-1 vs spread in last 20 games where spread was 3 or less points. Cleveland has been outrushed in every game, by average of 50.2 yards- they’re 2-9 in last 11 games as home favorite, 0-3 this season. 6.0/5.4/5.1/4.3. Seattle won two of three series games, but teams last met in ’07.
Chargers (4-1) @ Jets (3-3) - Jets are 0-3 vs teams with winning records, giving up 30+ points in all three games, but all three were on road; offense has total of 405 yards last two weeks, converting just 7 of 26 on third down, so huge edge at QB for San Diego, which has held four of five opponents to 275 or less total yards (Patriots gained 504 against Bolts). Lot of subplots here, with Tomlinson going against old team and Schottenheimer coaching against team his dad used to coach—Chargers fired Marty despite his almost taking them to Super Bowl. San Diego won six of last eight post-bye games, covering three of last four as post-bye dog. Gang Green won last meeting 17-14 at San Diego in ’09 playoffs; they’ve won four of last six series meetings, with two of four wins in playoff games. Jets are 4-8-1 in last 13 games as favorite of 3 or less points, San Diego allowed 17 or less points in all three home games, but allowed 35-24 in two games on foreign soil.
Texans (3-3) @ Titans (3-2) - Big game for sliding Houston club that lost three of last four games and has been outscored in second half of every game this year (total of 72-37 in last four games); loss of stars on both sides of ball (WR Johnson/DE Williams) proved critical in winnable game at Baltimore last week. Favorite covered all three Houston road games; Texans are 0-2 as road dog, losing 40-33 at Saints (+4), 29-14 (+7) at Baltimore. Tennessee gave up 14 or less points in each of its three wins, 16-38 in its losses- they’ve already beaten Ravens/Broncos at home, allowing 13-14 points. Houston is 3-2 in last five series games, after having been 2-11 in first 13 meetings; Texans lost seven of nine visits here, with five of seven losses by 7+ points. Houston has been lost three of last four games, Tennessee is 6-3 in last nine games as divisional home favorite- they won four of last five post-bye games. Five of six Houston games stayed under the total.
Broncos (1-4) @ Dolphins (0-5) - Miami is incredible 6-29 vs spread in last 35 games as home favorite; they’re honoring 2008 Florida Gators here, team whose starting QB was Tebow, who gets his 4th career NFL start here for struggling Denver, which is 0-7 in Miami, with five of seven losses by 10+ points. Fish are 0-2 at home, losing by 14-10 points; 0-5 teams don’t have much of home field edge, especially when opposing QB is college hero from that area. Broncos allowed 22-17 points in its wins, 23-49-29 in losses- Miami hasn’t scored more than 16 points in any of its last four games. Broncos are 3-6 in last nine games as home favorite, 1-1 this year (14-17 at Tennessee, 49-23 at Green Bay). Dolphins are favored for first time this season. Denver is 16-5 in its last 21 post-bye games; Fox was 5-1 in his last six post-bye games with Carolina. Four of five Denver games went over; last four Miami games stayed under.
Falcons (3-3) @ Lions (5-1) - Falcons have gone LWLWLW so far this year; they scored 30+ points in their wins, 12-13-14 in losses. Since 2008, they’re 6-7 as road underdogs. Detroit allowed 23+ points in three of last four games, and trailed all four at halftime. Atlanta is 1-2 on road, winning at Seattle, losing at Chicago/Tampa. Third straight home game for Lions, who were outrushed 203-66 last week and converted only 2 of 15 third down plays- they’re 26-31-2 in game following their last 59 losses. Falcons are 28-31-1 vs spread in game following their last 60 wins. Detroit is 6-4-1 in last 11 games as single digit favorite. Atlanta is 4-3 in last seven series games, after being 6-20 at one point; they’re 4-15 in Motor City, but this is their first visit since ’06. Three of Falcons’ last four games stayed under total. NFC South road teams are 3-5 vs spread in non-divisional games. N FC North home favorites are 5-3.
Chiefs (2-3) @ Raiders (4-2) - Oakland lost QB Campbell (collarbone) for season last week, traded for Carson Palmer Wednesday, which leaves Boller as starter for this game; he’s not good. Raiders are 5-2 in last seven series games, with three of five wins by 3 points- their OT win here LY was first time KC lost in last eight visits, and first time Oakland swept season series since ‘01. KC won last two games after 0-3 start, scoring 22-28 points vs Vikings/Colts (combined record, 1-11). Silver/Black allowed 38-31 points in only two losses (Bills/Patriots, combined record, 9-3); they’re just 3-10 in last 13 games as home favorite, 1-0 this year. Chiefs lost last four post-bye games, with three losses by 11+ points. Raiders are 7-4 in last 11 pre-bye games- this is first time since ’05 they’re favored in pre-bye game (2-3 last five). Last three Oakland games stayed under the total; average total in last ten series games, 31.5.
Steelers (4-2) @ Cardinals (1-4) - When Pittsburgh hired Tomlin as coach, they passed over Steeler assistants Whisenhunt/Grimm, who went on to desert, where they won NFC in ’08 but lost Super Bowl in last minute to Steelers; this is their first meeting since. Cardinals lost last four games, three by four or less points- favorites covered Arizona’s last six post-bye games; Redbirds lost four of last five (0-4 as post-bye dog). Steelers are 1-2 on road, scoring 7-10 points in losses at Ravens/Texans, and slogging thru 23-20 win at Manning-less indy (trailed 13-10 at half). Pitt has only two takeaways this season, with an amazing (for a 4-2 team) minus-11 turnover ratio. Steelers are 11-17 in last 28 games as road favorites; Arizona is 9-4 in last 13 games as a home underdog. Redbirds are 1-1 at home, getting hosed by terrible non-fumble call at end of 31-27 loss to Giants. Three of last four Cardinal games stayed under total. NFC West underdogs are 6-9-1 vs spread in non-division games, 1-4-1 at home.
Rams (0-5) @ Cowboys (2-3) - Sad-sack St Louis been outscored 86-9 in first half of last four games; they’ve got guys coming in off street and starting at CB. Only one of their five losses was by less than 12 points- they’re 6-7 vs spread in last 13 games as double digit dog. Last 11 Dallas games were decided by 4 or less points- Pokes’ only wins this year were by 3-2 points; they’re 1-9-1 vs spread in last 11 games as a favorite, 4-8 in last dozen games as double digit fave. Addition of WR Lloyd should help St Louis offense right away, since he played for McDaniels last two years in Denver. NFC East home favorites are 1-5 vs spread in non-division games; NFC West underdogs are 6-9-1, 5-5 on foreign soil. Home team lost six of last eight series games, with Rams winning four of last five visits here, but impossible to endorse visitors until they at least compete for an entire 60-minute game.
Packers (6-0) @ Vikings (1-5) - Green Bay is 7-3 in last ten series games, winning 28-24/31-3 in LY’s series; average total in last five series games is 51.6, but just 44.3 in last five in Metrodome (Pack 5-3 in last eight visits). Rookie QB Ponder gets start for Vikings after dreadful 39-10 loss last week in Chicago; McNabb looks washed-up, so might as well find out if the kid can play. Minnesota is 1-5, but with only one loss by more than seven points; they’re 3-9 vs spread in last 12 games as home underdog. Packers coasted last week, are 5-1 vs spread this year, 8-5 in last 13 games as road favorite- their only non-cover this year was at Carolina, when Panthers covered thru back door late. League-wide, home underdogs are 6-4 vs spread in divisional games this season, but Vikings have been outscored in second half of every game this year (outscored by total of 100-29). Packers are 4-0-1 vs spread in last five games as pre-bye favorite.
Colts (0-6) @ Saints (4-2) - First series meeting since New Orleans won improbable Super Bowl title two years ago; this game was put in primetime because Peyton Manning is from Crescent City, but he ain’t playing- winless Colts are 1-2 as road dogs, losing at Houston (7-34, +8.5), Tampa (17-24, +10), Cincinnati (17-27, +7). Indy has actually been very competitive in every game but the opener, but they’ve worn down in second half, outscored 71-34 in second half of last five games. Saints are 13-9-1 vs spread in last 23 games as home favorite, 2-0 this year, beating Texans (40-33)/Bears (30-13). Payton had broken leg/torn MCL operated on Monday, will call plays from press box, but he also missed two days of game-planning NFC south home teams are 5-3 vs spread in non-divisional games; AFC South underdogs are 5-8, 3-6 on road. Four of Colts’ last five games stayed under total. Red flag for Saints are four takeaways in six games- they haven’t had a game yet with 2+ takeaways.
Ravens (4-1) @ Jaguars (1-5) - Bully Ravens (four wins this year by 15+ points) against rookie QB playing on team that lost last five games, with three of five losses by 10+ points. Baltimore is 7-1 in last eight series games after losing first eight to expansion Jags- they’re still just 2-5 in last seven visits here, with last win 10 years ago, and over last decade are just 5-10 as non-divisional road favorite. Ravens have superior record in game after bye, but last four years, they lost second game after the bye. Jags scored 13 or less points in four of five losses (five TD’s, 26 3/outs on 58 drives); they’re 10-19 vs spread in game after their last 29 losses. Ravens are 23-17-2 vs spread in game after their last 42 wins. Baltimore is allowing 76.6 rushing yards/game, held last three foes to 3.6./3.0/4.9 yards/pass attempt. Jaguars have been held under 4.0 ypa in three of last five games. Five of six Jacksonville games stayed under total; four of five Raven games went over, with Baltimore scoring 35-37-34-29 in its wins.
NFL Poolies' Cheat Sheet: Week 7
Covers.com
The NFL likes to claim it’s all about parity. Well, in Week 7, here’s what we’ve got: Not a single contest featuring two winning teams. To the games we go:
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-3.5)
Why Texans cover: Squad desperate not just for cover, but SU win, having dropped three of last four straight up and against the spread. With Colts minus Peyton Manning, Houston should be running away with weak AFC South, but isn’t. Now a good time to get moving, against first-place Titans.
Why Titans cover: Good bounce-back bet, having won SU and ATS last four in that spot. More noteworthy, though, Houston’s ATS slides of 1-5 on road, 0-5 getting points and 1-4 coming off bye. Plus Pro Bowl WR Andre Johnson is still out for Texans.
Total (44.5): Under 9-2 in Tennessee’s last 11 AFC South contests, but in this rivalry, total has gone high five straight in Nashville and seven of 10 overall.
Denver Broncos at Miami Dolphins (-1)
Why Broncos cover: Coming off bye, and hoping for emotional boost of QB Tim Tebow making first NFL start. There will be a large contingent rooting for the former Heisman winner because the Dolphins decided to honor the 2009 BCS champion Gators at halftime, which means there’ll be more Tebow supports than Miami fans in the stands.
Why Dolphins cover: Dying for win, and defense licking chops to get shot at polarizing Tebow. Broncos in 16-33-3 ATS rut vs. losing teams, and have failed to cash last six in this rivalry. Denver also traded away its best receiver (Brandon Lloyd) this week.
Total (43): Broncos play to over 20 of last 26 overall, but Fish have gone under last four in row.
Chicago Bears (-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Why Bears cover: Jay Cutler and Matt Forte seem to have found a spark in rout of Minnesota, moving to 4-1 ATS last five as chalk. Bucs in ATS ruts of 6-17 on home turf and 3-13 as home underdog.
Why Buccaneers cover: Lots of confidence after outright home win as underdog vs. Saints. In fact, Raheem Morris’ troops 7-2 ATS last nine catching points.
Total (44): Under 7-2 in Bears’ last nine on highway.
Washington Redskins at Carolina Panthers (-3)
Why Redskins cover: Should be irritated at being ‘dog against team that’s just 1-5 SU. Washington cashed last four on road, 5-1-1 ATS last seven getting points and 8-2-1 ATS last 11 as road pup. Underdog has beaten oddsmakers in nine straight Redskins-Panthers affairs.
Why Panthers cover: Despite SU mark, playing reasonably well behind rookie QB Cam Newton, hence the favorite status vs. Washington team making QB change this week from Rex Grossman to John Beck. Carolina cashed last four at home.
Total (42.5): Carolina 16-5 to the under last 21 as favorite, and Washington on under surges of 4-0 overall, 5-1 on road and 8-2 getting points.
Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions (-3.5)
Why Falcons cover: Resurgence of RB Michael Turner, who torched Carolina for 139 yards and two TDs last week. Turner could help keep heat off QB Matt Ryan from Lions’ relentless defensive line. Word is Atlanta coach Mike Smith really likes dishing out hearty, shove-laden postgame handshakes.
Why Lions cover: Last week’s letdown notwithstanding, Detroit among hottest teams in league SU and at betting window, with ATS runs of 9-1-1 overall, 13-3-1 inside NFC and 5-1 at home. Atlanta is 0-3 ATS on the road this season.
Total (47): Both teams trend high, with over 6-1-1 in Atlanta’s last eight roadies and 13-5-1 in Detroit’s last 19 overall.
Seattle Seahawks at Cleveland Browns (-3)
Why Seahawks cover: Seattle, coming off bye, rarely goes to Eastern Time Zone and comes back with win or cover, yet did just that against Giants in Week 5. Have cashed three straight. Browns just 1-7-1 ATS last nine and have gone nearly a season’s worth of home games without covering (0-6-1 ATS).
Why Browns cover: Seattle is still Seattle, with shaky QB situation at best; starter Tarvaris Jackson injured (plus, he’s Tarvaris Jackson), and backup Charlie Whitehurst doesn’t inspire. Seahawks on ATS slides of 6-18 after SU win and 5-11 after spread-cover.
Total (41): Both teams averaging less than 19 ppg. Still, over on 13-3 spree for Seattle.
San Diego Chargers (-1) at New York Jets
Why Chargers cover: Jets not striking fear in anyone right now, and San Diego’s long trip to East Coast not nearly as problematic coming off bye week.
Why Jets cover: Bolts just 2-6-1 ATS last seven as road chalk, and New York fares well as short underdog, at 6-1 ATS last seven catching three points or less. Jets solid in this rivalry, too, cashing five of last six vs. Chargers.
Total (43.5): Lots of reasons to look at over. Norv Turner’s troops on over stretches of 28-11-4 in roadies and 18-6-2 as road favorite, and total has gone high in 22 of Jets’ last 30 overall.
Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders (-4)
Why Chiefs cover: Raiders have to go with new QB this week, whether it’s Kyle Boller or newly acquired Carson Palmer. Chiefs, meanwhile, have cashed three straight and are 7-1 ATS last eight trips to Coliseum.
Why Raiders cover: Even with new QB, they can control game by running all day long behind Darren McFadden – team averaging 160 rushing ypg, second-best in NFL. Tied for second-best ATS mark in league this year, at 5-1, and have bagged cash last eight AFC West contests.
Total (41.5): Ten of last 12 Chiefs-Raiders tilts have gone low, including five of last six in Oakland.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5) at Arizona Cardinals
Why Steelers cover: Coach Mike Tomlin knows how to take advantage of bye week, with Pittsburgh cashing five straight in that spot, and Steelers 5-1 ATS last six coming off non-cover. Cards 6-14 ATS last 20 overall.
Why Cardinals cover: Steelers fell short against number last four on highway, and Arizona has covered 10 of last 14 as a home pup.
Total (42.5): Over 6-1 in Pittsburgh’s last seven as road chalk and 12-4 in Arizona’s last 16 as home ‘dog.
St. Louis Rams at Dallas Cowboys (-12.5)
Why Rams cover: Tough to say. Perhaps another instance of traffic officer at scene of wreck, saying, “Move along. Nothing to see here.” Still, St. Louis 6-2 ATS last eight vs. losing teams, and Dallas 1-9-1 ATS last 11 as chalk.
Why Cowboys cover: Talent far better than record, and at some point, that’s got to show up. Cowboys had host Patriots on ropes last week, barely losing SU while winning ATS. Should fare much better against most pathetic scoring team in league, with Rams netting just 9.8 ppg.
Total (43.5): If Rams’ scoring struggles continue, it’s all on Cowboys to get past this number – and they just might. Over a stout 10-1 in Dallas’ last 11 home games.
Green Bay Packers (-9) at Minnesota Vikings
Why Packers cover: Because that’s what they do – win and cover. At home, on road, in playoffs, you name it. Unbeaten SU and 5-1 ATS this season, after perfect 4-0 SU and ATS run through Super Bowl last year. QB Aaron Rodgers seemingly unstoppable. And Vikes plan to toss rookie QB Christian Ponder to wolves this week, yanking ineffective vet Donovan McNabb.
Why Vikings cover: Ponder can’t be worse than McNabb and could provide a spark. Adrian Peterson likely needs to have field day for floundering Vikes to hang around.
Total (46.5): Numbers bend all directions. Pack leads league at 32.8 ppg, but under 11-3 in Green Bay’s last 14 roadies. In this rivalry, over 5-1 last six overall and 8-2-1 last 11 in Minnesota.
Indianapolis Colts at New Orleans Saints (-14)
Why Colts cover: Boy, did this game look lots better a couple months ago. Winless Indy still minus superstar QB Peyton Manning, but playing a little better, and Colts 10-2 ATS last dozen getting more than 10 points. Saints 2-10 ATS last dozen vs. losing teams.
Why Saints cover: No denying Drew Brees and Co. can still score plenty (29.5 ppg, sixth). New Orleans has cashed five of last six at home (all as chalk, no surprise), and Sean Payton’s squad generally breaks a leg in bounceback spots – 15-5 ATS last 20 coming off SU loss.
Total (48.5): If Colts are playing, even without Manning, over still very much in play. Last five Indy games have gone high, and Colts sport additional over streaks of 13-3 on highway and 7-0-1 after SU loss (plenty of those lately).
Baltimore Ravens (-9) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Why Ravens cover: Defense already No. 1 in league, yielding just 14.2 ppg, and now faces one of most inept offenses, with Jags scoring just 12 ppg (31st) behind rookie QB Blaine Gabbert. And Monday night spotlight a dichotomy: Baltimore 5-1 ATS last six, Jacksonville 2-7 ATS last nine.
Why Jaguars cover: Best that can be said: Home team 4-0-1 ATS last five in this rivalry.
Total (39.5): Over 5-1 in Ravens’ last six, but low-scoring Jags on under streaks of 5-1 overall and 5-0 on Monday night.
Total Talk - Week 7
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
Week 6 Recap
Some gamblers may’ve felt the oddsmakers were making the right adjustments on totals this season due to the ‘over’ rush but others, including myself, believed the numbers were a tad inflated. I noted in last week’s Total Talk how the board didn’t feature an ‘over/under’ listed below 40 points. So what happens? The ‘under’ posts a 10-3 mark. Was it a coincidence or a sign of things to come? After six weeks, the ‘over’ stands at 47-40-3 (54%).
Good-BYE Offense
The rest vs. rust factor always seems to be debatable and the two are always associated with wins and losses. If a team comes out flat off the bye week and loses, you’ll say they’re rusty. Conversely, if they look sharp, then they’re rested or prepared. Last week, six teams played off the bye and those clubs went 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS, with only Baltimore notching a 29-14 win at home over Houston. More importantly, the Ravens were the only team to bust 20-plus points. The other five combined for an average of 11 points per game, with St. Louis (3), Washington (13), Cleveland (17), Dallas (16) and Miami (6) looking rusty. Bottom line, the ‘under’ went 6-0 in those games.
Week 7 features six more teams who will try to look rested rather than rusty.
San Diego at N.Y. Jets: The Chargers have allowed 35 and 24 points in their two road games, plus the Jets have scored 27, 32 and 24 in their three home games. New York has given up a combined nine points in last two home games albeit against Jacksonville (3) and Miami (6).
Houston at Tennessee: You think wide receiver Andre Johnson is a difference maker for Houston’s offense? Since he went down to the Steelers on Oct. 2, the offense has put up 17, 20 and 14 points. Prior to his injury, the attack put up 34, 23 and 33 points. The total is hovering around 44 for this week’s battle, despite Houston going ‘under’ in five of its six games. These teams have watched the ‘over/under’ split the last three seasons (3-3).
Denver at Miami: The Broncos have watched the ‘over’ go 4-1, while the Dolphins have seen the ‘under’ go 4-1. Denver head coach John Fox has watched the ‘under’ go 6-3 after the bye during his tenure in Carolina.
Kansas City at Oakland: This number is dropping and could get lower, especially with debut of QB Carson Palmer in Oakland. The Raiders and Chiefs have watched eight of their last 10 encounters go ‘under’ the number. And those who recall last year’s battle in Oakland (23-20) know that game should’ve stayed ‘under’ as well.
Seattle at Cleveland: After putting up a combined 30 points in the first three weeks, the ‘Hawks have posted 28 and 36 in their last two games. Cleveland’s offense (18.2 PPG) has been real shaky this season, especially at home (15.7 PPG). Make a note that whether it was Mike Holmgren, Jim Mora Jr. or Pete Carroll guiding Seattle, the ‘over’ has gone 10-0 in the last 10 games after a bye.
Pittsburgh at Arizona: The Cardinals have played two games at home and both went ‘over.’ Pittsburgh’s offense hasn’t been explosive this season due to injuries on the offensive line, but the Cards’ defense has allowed 20-plus in four of five games.
Lookin’ at London
The NFL International Series returns this week with Chicago (3-3) and Tampa Bay (4-2) going head-to-head at Wembley Stadium from London. This is the first time that gamblers will see two teams from the same conference squaring off. If you’re not familiar with the weather in England at this time of the year, then make a note that it isn’t pretty and usually overcast with wind and rain. Does it make a difference? Well, I like to believe that numbers don’t lie. With that being said, this will be the fifth installment from London and three of the first four encounters went ‘under’ the number.
2007 - New York Giants 13 Miami 10 (Under 48)
2008 - New Orleans 37 San Diego 32 (Over 45.5)
2009 - New England 35 Tampa Bay 7 (Under 45)
2010 – San Francisco 24 Denver 16 (Under 41.5)
When you look at this week’s matchup, it’s hard to argue an ‘over’ play when looking at what the Bears (13 PPG) and Bucs (13.5 PPG) have done offensively on the road this season. The total opened at 42 and has been spiked up to 43 ½ points, which makes you wonder if people even know the game is being played across the pond.
On a side note, Buffalo will continue its Toronto series next week against Washington. The two teams will play at Rogers Centre, marking the fourth regular season game for the Bills at this venue. We’ll touch on the trends in next week’s Total Talk.
Under the Lights
Slowly but surely, the ‘under’ tickets are starting to come around with the primetime games. Even though the Bears-Vikings went ‘over’ on SNF, the Jets-Dolphins matchup never threatened the closing total on MNF. Through six weeks, the ‘over’ is 9-4-1 (69%). This week’s matchups feature the highest total and lowest totals on the board.
Indianapolis at New Orleans: The total on this game has been hovering between 47 and 48 points at some books, and that makes me wonder what the number would be if the Colts has Peyton Manning behind center. Everybody knows that the Saints’ offense is a juggernaut, which has busted 30-plus four times and 20-plus in the other two. Can Indianapolis match points? The Colts are only averaging 13.7 PPG on the road. However, Jim Caldwell’s defense (27.2 PPG) has been horrible this season. And the Saints’ defense (25.2 PPG) isn’t great either. Line is definitely inflated and will probably go up with bettors chasing on Sunday.
Baltimore at Jacksonville: In terms of totals, you have two complete opposites here. Baltimore has watched the ‘over’ go 4-1, but Jacksonville is 5-1 to the ‘under.’ Next to St. Louis (9.8 PPG), the Jaguars are the second worst scoring offense (12 PPG) in the league. And now you put that attack up against the Ravens, who have the best scoring defense (14.2 PPG). Before you run and bet the ‘under’, you should make a note that the Jaguars have scored more at home this season (15.6 PPG) and the Ravens have put up 29 or more in four of their five games. The total opened at 39 and should close under 40 but you never know how the public will push the action on MNF.
Fearless Predictions
Woulda, Coulda, Shoulda! After getting 30 points in the first half of the Saints-Bucs game, we witnessed 16 in the second half, which made us lose our ‘over’ ticket. The ‘over’ was the right side, but it’s hard to cash when you get 10 scores and six of them are field goals. The Three-Team teaser, but our Team Total play on the Rams was poor. And with that being said, the deficit stands at $280. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!
Best Over: Pittsburgh-Arizona 42.5
Best Under: Chicago-Tampa Bay 43.5
Best Team Total: Over 23.5 Pittsburgh
Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Over Pittsburgh-Arizona 33.5
Under Houston-Tennessee 53.5
Over Seattle-Cleveland 32.5
Tip Sheet - Week 7
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
The Week 7 NFL card showcases many struggling teams looking to get on track. The late kickoffs involve four public favorites, including two clubs laying at least nine points. Last week, the four favorites in the 4:00 PM EST games compiled a 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS record, improving the mark to 22-4 SU and 16-9-1 ATS for the chalk-eaters in the late games. Will that trend keep up this week? We'll start in Arizona with a rematch of Super Bowl XLIII with plenty of familiar faces reuniting.
Steelers (-3½, 43) at Cardinals
One of the best finishes in Super Bowl history occurred the last time these two teams hooked up in February 2009 when Pittsburgh edged Arizona, 27-23 to win the franchise's sixth championship. The Steelers try to avoid a trap in the desert with home games against the Patriots and Ravens coming up in the next two weeks. Arizona hasn't won a game since the season opener against Carolina, as the Cardinals attempt to snap a four-game skid.
Both offenses are averaging nearly 19 ppg, but the big difference is Pittsburgh's defense, which is allowing 17 ppg. What makes that number so amazing is the Steelers gave up 35 points in the season opening loss at Baltimore, while yielding 17 points or less in four of the last five games. The Cardinals have been an 'over' play at home (2-0), as opposed to a strong 'under' play on the road (3-0). The Steelers are 3-6 ATS the last nine games off a home win, while the Cardinals own a 2-6 ATS record the previous eight contests off a road loss.
Chiefs at Raiders (-4½, 41½)
Oakland has made many headlines over the last two weeks for different reasons. Longtime owner Al Davis passed away the day before a huge road victory at Houston, while the franchise made the move for disgruntled quarterback Carson Palmer from Cincinnati for a pair of high draft picks. For all the news made off the field, the Raiders own a 4-2 record and have covered five of six games on the field. Oakland looks to continue its dominance within the AFC West as the reigning division champion Chiefs invade the Black Hole.
The Raiders are riding an eight-game SU/ATS winning streak against division foes, including an opening week victory at Denver. The Chiefs are 7-1 SU/ATS the previous eight trips to the East Bay, but fell in overtime last season, 23-20 as one-point favorites. The good news for Kansas City heading into this contest is this team has covered three straight games after getting blown out by Buffalo and Detroit to start the season. On the flip side, the Raiders are 2-6 ATS the previous eight games off a home win, while owning a 3-10 ATS mark since 2006 as a home favorite.
Rams at Cowboys (-13, 43½)
A big doubleheader of St. Louis/Texas showdowns begins with this matchup, followed by Game 4 of the World Series between the Cardinals and Rangers at night. Dallas has thrown away two games against the AFC East this season with come-from-ahead losses to the Jets and Patriots. In fact, the Cowboys have squandered late leads in three defeats as Dallas tries to get back to the .500 mark with a win over the 0-5 Rams. St. Louis' offense received a boost with the acquisition of Brandon Lloyd from Denver, but the Rams are averaging a league-worst 9.8 ppg and will likely be without quarterback Sam Bradford due to an ankle injury.
Besides the fact the Rams can't score, this team has failed to cover a pointspread this season by racking up an 0-5 ATS mark. Since a 9-3 ATS start last season, St. Louis owns a dreadful 1-8 ATS ledger over the previous nine games. Meanwhile, the Cowboys aren't the most attractive home favorite with a 1-7 ATS mark since the beginning of 2010, including non-covers against the Redskins and Lions this season. The Rams are making their first trip to Dallas since 2007 when the Cowboys blew away St. Louis, 35-7 as 13-point favorites.
Packers (-9, 46½) at Vikings
This matchup over the last two seasons had plenty of meaning with Aaron Rodgers battling Brett Favre. With Favre out of the fold and the Vikings hitting the skids, Green Bay has an opportunity to improve to 6-0 heading to the bye next week. Minnesota has given up on the Donovan McNabb experiment after a 1-5 start, as the Vikings are turning to rookie Christian Ponder at quarterback.
The Vikings are 2-1 ATS this season as an underdog, with the lone loss coming in last week's 39-10 blowout at Chicago. However, Minnesota is just 2-6 ATS the previous eight contests against division foes, including a pair of losses to Green Bay last season. The Packers have taken care of business on the highway against NFC North rivals by putting together a 13-4 ATS record in Mike McCarthy's tenure as head coach.
Week 7 NFL Sunday Betting Update
By: Matty Simo
By Donbest.com
If you’re a bettor seeking out competitive action in Week 7 of the NFL season, look no further than the early part of Sunday’s slate. All seven games that kick off at 1:00 p.m. (ET) have lines of 3½ points or less, with six of them sitting within a field goal according to the Don Best odds screen.
This is the first time in 2011 that a group of games has been so evenly matched by the linemakers. The same can’t be said for the remaining six games that take place later in the day and on Monday, as four of them have lines of eight points or higher.
As many as six of the games could feature teams starting new quarterbacks. Five of the teams have already announced probable starters, and five of them opened as underdogs.
St. Louis Rams QB Sam Bradford was ruled out on Saturday as he continues to battle a high-ankle sprain he suffered in a 24-3 road loss to the Green Bay Packers last week. The Rams (0-5) are 13½-point road underdogs against the Dallas Cowboys and will replace Bradford with veteran A.J. Feeley, who has not started a game since 2007 when he was with the Philadelphia Eagles.
John Beck will take over for Rex Grossman as the starting QB for the Washington Redskins (3-2), and they are 2 ½-point road underdogs against the Carolina Panthers (1-5). Grossman threw four interceptions in a 20-13 home loss to the Eagles (2-4) last week, prompting the move due to his league-high 11 turnovers on the season.
Beck is 0-4 as a starter during his career, with all of the losses taking place when he was a rookie on a 1-15 Miami Dolphins team four years ago.
The Seattle Seahawks (2-3) will go with Charlie Whitehurst under center for the injured Tavaris Jackson, who is dealing with a strained pectoral muscle. Whitehurst relieved Jackson in a 36-25 road win against the New York Giants (4-2) two weeks ago, and the Seahawks are 3-point road dogs against the Cleveland Browns (2-3) as they try to win consecutive games away from home for the first time in almost four years.
The game with the biggest line movement so far this week involves the Denver Broncos (1-4) and second-year QB Tim Tebow, who earned the nod over Kyle Orton as they visit the winless Miami Dolphins (0-5). The Broncos opened as 3-point underdogs but are down to a pick ’em against the Dolphins, who are coming off a brutal performance in a 24-6 loss to the New York Jets on Monday Night Football. Miami also started Matt Moore at QB against the Jets for the first time off its bye week because Chad Henne is out for the season with a shoulder injury.
The only team favored that is making a change at QB is the Oakland Raiders (4-2), who completed a major trade earlier this week to land Carson Palmer from the Cincinnati Bengals (4-2). Palmer was holding out from the Bengals in hopes of getting dealt and got his wish. However, he is not expected to start when the Raiders host the Kansas City Chiefs (2-3) with Jason Campbell injured (broken collarbone).
Instead, Kyle Boller will likely replace Campbell in the starting lineup. Oakland is listed as a 3½-point favorite against Kansas City.
Finally, the Minnesota Vikings (1-5) have decided to start rookie Christian Ponder over Donovan McNabb at home against the unbeaten Green Bay Packers (6-0). Ponder played for the first time last week late in a 39-10 road loss to the Chicago Bears on Sunday and was Minnesota’s first-round draft pick this year. He will face a tough task against the defending Super Bowl champion Packers, who are 9½-point road favorites.
NFL Line Moves
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
We’ve got two great stories this week involving quarterbacks that have had an effect on the line movement. Carson Palmer going to the Oakland Raiders was big news earlier in the week and it was even bigger news when erroneous reports came out that he would be starting Sunday. We’ve also got the intriguing story of Mr. Florida, Tim Tebow, coming home to get honored in the Denver Broncos ‘road’ game at Miami.
When the Palmer news broke, the first thing every sports book did was adjust their future odds on the Raiders. The Las Vegas Hilton Super Book immediately went from 40/1 down to 30/1 in their odds to win the Super Bowl while also dropping their AFC Championship odds from 20 to 15/1.
The Raiders have already looked impressive this season (4-2) with a strong running game and getting a veteran quarterback in the mix makes them even more dangerous for opposing teams. Because of their success on the field and covering the spread in five of six games, they’re also becoming a popular public team again.
When news broke about Palmer possibly starting this week against Kansas City, it immediately affected the point-spread.
“We started getting bets immediately on the Raiders moving from minus-4, up to 4½ where they bet some more and then again there and -5,” said MGM Resorts Vice President of Race and Sports Jay Rood who has since moved the line back to -4½ on news that Kyle Boller is now expected to start.
Some sports books in Las Vegas went as high as -6 with the Raiders opting not to mess around with the dead numbers of 5 or 5½. As of Friday afternoon, almost every book is now -4 with a few like the MGM Resort properties at -4½.
There’s no doubt that Carson Palmer was throwing and keeping in shape while waiting out the season, but no matter how strenuous his workouts were it would be impossible for him to be in NFL game shape. Let Palmer get more familiar with the system, have the bye week and then unleash him against the Broncos in Week 9.
By Week 9, the Broncos should be a little closer to knowing what they have with Tim Tebow. Most everyone else has the scouting report on him which says: He’s not very accurate, but he makes things happen on the fly and the team seems to play more inspired when he’s on the field.
Due to several reasons, like public outcry in Denver and Kyle Orton playing poorly, the new Broncos regime reluctantly named Tebow the starter during their bye week. The reluctant part is simply because Tebow is not ‘their guy.’ John Fox and John Elway didn’t draft him. He was Josh McDaniels dream project.
Right from the start, the regime made it difficult for Tebow. Rather than competing for the starting job after doing well in the final games last season, he came in competing for the back-up job with Brady Quinn.
“It looks like their setting him up to fail,” said Rood. “How else can you explain trading away his best receiver, a guy who led the league in yards last year, the week before he makes his first start of the season.”
Could there be a conspiracy in Denver, due to just how vocal the fans have been in support of Tebow, to let him play and get it over with? There doesn’t seem to be a lot of support for him from management and it’s almost like Tebow is getting the chance with the deck stacked against him.
It’s like the Broncos are saying, “If he fails, then we can get rid of him and be over with McDaniels project while also appeasing our fans by saying ‘see, we played him and look what happened.’ And if he succeeds, well, we’ll get to that road when or if it happens.”
The line movement on the Broncos-Dolphins game has been dropping since Monday. More than 10,000 tickets have been sold for Sunday’s game since Tebow was announced as the starter. For some reason, the Dolphins will be honoring the 2008 Florida Gators National Championship team on the field where the Miami Hurricanes play.
The Dolphins opened as 3-point favorites at the Hilton on Monday and are now currently pick’em with bettors almost feeling like this will be a neutral site field, not to mention the Dolphins are 0-5 this season. The MGM opened Miami -2 and are now at -1.
“We haven’t seen any large action on Denver,” said Rood. “It’s been all small money on the Broncos thus far; we’re heavily weighted with them on the parlays.”
Coast Resorts currently has Denver as a 1-point favorite.
Of the 13 games this week, nine of them are 3½-point favorites or lower making the game appear to be very competitive. However, it could be argued that this is the ugliest lineup of games in NFL history. All the popular teams are off this week. New England, Philadelphia, San Francisco and the New York Giants all have byes along with the improved and exciting Cincinnati and Buffalo squads.
With there being so many low point-spreads and the popular teams all having byes, you can virtually guarantee that the sports book have a winning week. The public will have a difficult time being on the same sides in six to seven games as they normally do with teams favored by 6-points or more.
The one team everyone is already on is the Packers who opened as 8-point favorites at the Hilton and are now -9½. Coast Resorts currently has the Packers -10 (EVEN) and by kickoff, you can expect every other sports book to be at -10 or higher. Get it now if jumping on the cheese wagon this week.
“The Packers are already our biggest decision of the week,” said Rood who currently has them -9. “This is a massive game from all angles: straight bets, parlays and teasers.”
Whatever risk is left over from the awful early games will almost all be tied in with the Packers against the Vikings in the later game. Even if the Packers cover, the sports books should still have a decent day. Should the Vikings cover, or even better, make the Packers not cover the teasers, the sports books will have a monster day.
Usually the Sunday and Monday games are supposed to be feature games we look forward to, but it’s much of the same blah-blah from the first 11 games with the Colts and Jaguars being participants.
The Saints have dropped from 14-point favorites to 13½ on news that six-time All-Pro Center Olin Kreutz called it quits, saying he left the team because it just wasn’t in his heart to play anymore.
“We didn’t get any Colts money, I just dropped it a half on news of their starting center walking away,“ said Rood.
Regardless of bad the schedule is this week, it’s still the NFL and we all love it. Have fun and good luck!