NFL Betting News and Notes Week 7

Betting Recap - Week 6
By Daniel Dobish
VegasInsider.com

National Football League Week 6 Results

Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 8-6
Against the Spread 4-8-2
Home-Away
Straight Up 11-3
Against the Spread 7-5-2
Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 9-5

The largest underdogs to win straight up

Dolphins (+7.5, ML +290) vs. Steelers, 30-15
Cowboys (+5, ML +200) at Packers, 30-16
Chargers (+3, ML +140) vs. Broncos, 21-13
Redskins (+3, ML +140) vs. Eagles, 27-20

The largest favorite to cover

Bills (-7.5) vs. 49ers, 45-16
Patriots (-7.5) vs. Bengals, 35-17
Giants (-3.5) vs. Ravens, 27-23

Paying the Bills

The Buffalo Bills routed the San Francisco 49ers 45-16 for their fourth straight win and cover. The Bills have suddenly become a favorite of bettors at the window, as not only as the Bills covering, but the 'over' has hit in four of their past five. Buffalo will look to keep up the good work on the road in Miami. The Bills have won five of the past six meetings against the Miami Dolphins, covering five meetings during the span, including two of the past three in South Florida.

Saints Marching In

The New Orleans Saints posted a 41-38 victory over the beleaguered Carolina Panthers, who slink into their bye week 1-5 SU/1-5 ATS. Bettors will glad to see the Saints back after the bye, as the 'over' has connected in four of their five games with New Orleans scoring 32 or more points in four of their five outings while they have allowed 34 or more in four of their five games. The outlier was a 16-13 loss on the road against the New York Giants back in Week 2.

Total Recall

Regardless of what happens in the Monday night intraconference battle between the New York Jets and Arizona Cardinals, the 'over' will be in the majority for the fifth time in six weeks, with one week splitting at 7-7. In six games between AFC squads the 'over/under' split 3-3. In five NFC battles the 'over' cashed in four of the five outings. In AFC vs. NFC games, the 'over' went 2-1 Sunday with one game pending Monday night. Through the first six weeks of NFL action the 'over' is 51-40.

In the six games with the lowest total lines, five cashed the 'over'. Baltimore-N.Y. Giants (42.5), Los Angeles-Detroit (44), San Francisco-Buffalo (44). Cleveland-Tennessee (45) and Atlanta-Seattle (45.5) each cashed 'over' tickets, with Denver-San Diego (44) as the lone exception 'under' result. After the L.A.-Detroit and San Fran-Buffalo results, the 'over' is now a perfect 7-0 with West Coast teams traveling to meet East Coast teams this season.

In the four games with the highest total lines, the 'over' ended up hitting in three of those games. Carolina-New Orleans (53.5), Cincinnati-New England (48) ended up hitting, while Indianapolis-Houston (48) needed a late flurry and overtime to get there. The lone 'under' result was the Pittsburgh-Miami (49.5), and perhaps this game would have also hit the 'over' if not for an injury to Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger (knee).

The 'over/under' finished 1-1 in two primetime games in Week 6, with one to go. Officially, the 'over/under' is 9-9 (50.0%) through 18 games under the lights. In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games. In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56%) in 2013.

Injury Report

Colts TE Dwayne Allen (ankle) left the Sunday Night game in Houston in the first quarter due to a right ankle injury and he was unable to return. WR Phillip Dorsett (hamstring) was also forced out due to a hamstring ailment.

Packers WR Davante Adams (head) was shaken up in the second half of the game against Dallas and he was unable to return after heading to the locker room.

Ravens LB Terrell Suggs (biceps) suffered a torn biceps tendon in the fourth quarter of Sunday's loss at N.Y. Giants.

Steelers RB Ben Roethlisberger (knee) suffered a torn meniscus in Sunday's loss in Miami, although he returned to the game and gritted through the pain. He is scheduled to have surgery Monday to clean up the injury, and with a bye in Week 8 it's possible he only misses one game. QB Landry Jones is expected to take the reins of the offense in Week 7 against New England.

Looking Ahead

The Bears and Packers meet Thursday night at Lambeau Field. The Packers have beaten their rivals from Chicago in 10 of the past 12 meetings, but oddly enough they have dropped two of their past three at home against the Bears. The Packers are 9-2 ATS in the past 11 meetings in this rivalry, including one postseason matchup.

The Bengals and Browns battle on the banks of the Ohio River Sunday. In the past seven meetings, the Bengals have edged the Browns 4-3 SU in a surprisingly tight rivalry given the difference in success between the two teams. Cincinnati has covered four of the past five in this series, and but they're just 2-5-1 ATS in their past eight home meetings against the Browns.

The Colts have to pick themselves up off the mat after their stunning OT loss in Houston, as they look to rebound in Nashville against the Titans. Indianapolis has rattled off nine consecutive wins in this AFC South Division series, covering eight of those outings. That includes a 3-1 ATS mark in their past four meetings in Nashville.

In a key NFC West battle, the Cardinals play host to the Seahawks, and lately that hasn't ended well for Arizona. The Cardinals have won just two of the past seven matchups in this series, and they have dropped three in a row at home against the Seahawks dating back to Sept. 9, 2012. The Seahawks are also an impressive 5-2 ATS in the past seven in this series, including a perfect 3-0 ATS in the past three visits to the desert.

Opening Line Report - Week 7
By Marcus DiNitto
VegasInsider.com

Patriots at Steelers and Seahawks at Cardinals are two clear highlights of the NFL Week 7 card. Here’s a look at the complete slate, with opening betting lines from Las Vegas and some thoughts from Westgate SuperBook oddsmaker Ed Salmons.

The numbers listed are the Vegas consensus as of about 10:30 p.m. ET on Sunday. Differences between books and early line moves are noted.

Thursday, Oct. 20

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-9)

The opening line on this NFC North clash ranged from Green Bay -8.5 at the Westgate to -10 at CG Technology. While the Bears, at 1-5 straight up, are who we thought they were, the 3-2 Packers may not be. On Sunday, Green Bay didn’t score a touchdown in a 30-16 home loss to Dallas until late in the fourth quarter when the game was pretty much out of reach.

“It’s coming on two years now that everyone’s waiting for Green Bay’s offense to be what it used to be,” Salmons said. “But it’s looking like the receivers aren’t what they used to be, (Aaron) Rodgers isn’t what he used to be. Each game you watch against better competition, you see that over and over again.”

Sunday, Oct. 23

New York Giants (-3) vs. Los Angeles Rams

We’re treated to breakfast-time football for the second time this season, as these 3-3 teams meet in Twickenham Stadium, the first time an NFL London game will be held somewhere other than Wembley.

Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) at Philadelphia Eagles

The Westgate was dealing Philly as the 1-point favorite on its look-ahead lines issued last Tuesday, but after the Eagles’ second straight loss, 27-20 at Washington, the book opened Minnesota as 2.5-point road chalk for next week.

Salmons saw a few troubling signs for the Eagles on Sunday: their defense and offensive line.

Since Philly’s 3-0 start and bye week, its defense “has really looked bad….It’s regressed big time,” said Salmons.

Salmons also pointed out that right tackle Lane Johnson being replaced by rookie Halapoulivaati Vaitai as his 10-game suspension started Sunday resulted in a rough day for Eagles QB Carson Wentz. Wentz was harassed from the jump, sacked five times and finished just 11-for-22 for 179 yards.

New Orleans Saints at Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5)

Multiple Vegas books opened Kansas City -7 on Sunday before a quick adjustment in New Orleans’ direction. Most shops moved to -6.5, while the Wynn went -7 (even).

Washington Redskins at Detroit Lions (-1.5)

The Westgate and Wynn both opened Detroit -2 and moved to -1.5 in Sunday night wagering.

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-10)

The Westgate bounced between 9.5 and 10 for this intra-state rivalry game, while Cincy opened -10.5 at the Wynn, where the number also dipped to as low as 9.5. The Bengals fell to 2-4 SU and ATS with a 35-17 loss at New England, but they take a big step down in class next week. Their two wins and covers have come against the Jets and Dolphins, so a home game against the Browns figures to be a good opportunity to get healthy.

Buffalo Bills (-3) at Miami Dolphins

Had a line on this game been posted two or three weeks ago, we’d be looking at Miami as the short favorite. Instead, Buffalo – winners of four straight – opened -2.5 at the Westgate and was bet to -3 (even).

How good are the Bills?

“A borderline playoff team, wild-card at best, lose in first-round,” Salmons forecasts.

As for the Dolphins – who, as 7.5-point home dogs, beat Pittsburgh outright on Sunday, 30-15 – Salmons said, “Miami is such a strange team. They’ll play a game like they did today, but whenever you start to say ‘this team’s not bad,’ they throw in those hideous games – you never know when they come.”

Oakland Raiders at Jacksonville Jaguars (-2)

This AFC contest opened pick ‘em at the Westgate, but Jacksonville was bet to a 2-point favorite within an hour. The Jags were available at -1 at other Vegas shops.

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (-2.5)

If this line holds, it will mark the first time the Colts are underdogs against the Titans since 2012. Indy has beaten Tennessee in 14 of their last 15 meetings and is 8-1 ATS in the last nine games in the series. Laying points against those trends takes some gumption.

Baltimore Ravens and New York Jets (pick ‘em)

The Ravens travel to MetLife Stadium for the second straight week, after losing to the Giants on Sunday. Next week’s game ranged from either team being a 1-point favorite when early lines were posted Sunday night.

San Diego Chargers at Atlanta Falcons (-6)

Atlanta faced as stiff a back-to-back as you’ll see in the NFL, with road games at Denver and Seattle in consecutive weeks. They came up just short in Sunday’s 26-24 loss to the Seahawks but rewarded their bettors as 6.5-point dogs.

“They showed a lot today,” Salmons said of the Falcons. “It’s a shame because they really deserved to win. The referees really screwed them at the end” by not calling a pass interference penalty on a pass attempt from Matt Ryan to Julio Jones.

The Westgate opened Atlanta -5.5 vs. San Diego and moved to -6, while the Wynn opened -6 and went to -6.5.

Tampa Bay Bucs (-2) at San Francisco 49ers

Tampa opened -1 at the Westgate, with an early move to -1.5, and were hung as high as -2.5 at William Hill and the Wynn.

New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers (OFF)

CG Technology made the Pats -2.5 for this huge AFC tilt but took the game of its board when reports broke that Ben Roethlisberger will have surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his knee. Should Big Ben not be able to go and be replaced by Landry Jones, Salmons believes New England will be bigger than a touchdown favorite.

The Westgate had been dealing this game a pick ‘em on its games of the year lines, and in week-ahead wagering, sharp bettors took Pitt at that price and bet them up to -1.

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (-1)

Seattle is 4-1 SU but hasn’t been particularly impressive, getting the money in just two of those five games. The Seahawks, though, are notoriously slow starters, beginning last season 2-4 SU and 3-3 SU the year before that. Salmons says next Sunday night’s visit to Arizona will tell us a lot about Seattle, as it faces its first true road test of the season.

Monday, Oct. 24

Houston Texans at Denver Broncos (-6.5)

The Broncos, losers of two straight, look to get on track coming off a bye to face their former quarterback Brock Osweiler. When the Texans have hit the road to face quality competition this season, it hasn’t gone well, as they were shutout in New England and boat-raced in Minnesota.

NFL Week 7

Giants (3-3) vs Rams (3-3) (London) — Injuries to Rams’ DB’s (especially Johnson), leave them vulnerable here against WR Beckham, who caught 8 balls for 222 yards, two TDs in comeback win over Ravens last week. Detroit averaged 8.3 yards/pass attempt, scored four TDs on seven drives vs Rams LW. Keenum was 27-32/321 in Detroit, but on last two drives, was 1-4 with an INT that ended game, much like Buffalo game when he threw pick-6 in tie game late in third quarter. Gurley carried 14 times for 58 yards, but had 14 on first carry of game- they have to get him more involved. Giants won last six games against the Rams, five by 10+ points; Rams’ last series win was in 2001. NFC West teams are 4-8 vs spread in non-divisional games; NFC East teams are 10-4.

Vikings (5-0) @ Eagles (3-2) — Sam Bradford returns to Philly here; Eagles traded him this summer after Bridgewater’s knee injury in August. Minnesota is on 18-2 spread run, 5-0 this year, but they’re 1-5 in last six post-bye games. Vikings won 25-16/22-10 in road games this year; they’re 3-1 as road favorites under Zimmer. Eagles lost post-bye games to Lions/Redskins after 3-0 start; they’re 2-0 at home this year, beating Browns/Steelers by 14-31 points. Philly is 1-8 in its last nine games as a home underdog, 1-0 this year. Vikings’ 24-14 win here in 2010 (their last visit) snapped a 6-game skid in Philly. NFC North non-divisional favorites are 3-6 vs spread; NFC East non-divisional underdogs are 5-2. How often does a team face a QB who was in their training camp all summer?

Saints (2-3) @ Chiefs (3-2) — New Orleans won its last two games but allowed 72 points in doing so; Chiefs are 3-0 this season scoring 24+ points. Four of five Saint games this year were decided by 3 or less points; they’re 7-3-1 in last 11 games as road underdog, 2-0 this season. Since 2008, KC is 14-24 as a home favorite, 1-1 this year. Seven of Chiefs’ 10 TDs this year came on drives of 62 or less yards- they’ve got only two TD drives of 75+ yards, and 25 is usual starting point for most drives, with new kickoff rules. Home side lost five of last seven series games; Saints won three of last four visits here. NFC South non-divisional road underdogs are 5-1 vs spread this season; AFC West teams are 9-6 outside the division. Reid is 12-4 vs spread in last 16 post-bye games, but is 5-10 vs spread in second week off those byes.

Redskins (4-2) @ Lions (3-3) — Washington won its last four games, Detroit its last two; Lions’ three home games were decided by total of five points. Redskins are 2-0 on road this year, with SU wins at Giants (29-27, +4), Ravens (16-10, +4). Underdogs are 6-0 vs spread in Detroit games this year; Lions are 8-4-2 as home favorites under Caldwell, 0-2 this year. Detroit won last three series games; Redskins lost 19-14/37-25 in last two visits here. Washington is 7-8 under Gruden in games with spread of 3 or less points (1-2 this year); favorites are 13-5-2 in Lions’ last 20 games where spread was 3 or less. NFC North teams are 7-9 vs spread outside their division; NFC East road teams are 4-2 outside the division. Over is 5-1 in Washington games 4-2 in Detroit games this year.

Browns (0-6) @ Bengals (2-4) — Cincy lost four of last five games, giving up 63 points in last two games, losses at Dallas (28-14), Foxboro (35-17), but those are two of best teams in NFL so far. Bengals are 0-4 if they allow more than six yards/pass attempt, 2-0 if they allow less. Browns have been over 6.0 in spa in four of last five games. Cincy is 11-4 in last 15 games in this in-state rivalry; they outscored Cleveland 68-13 in two meetings LY, outscoring them 34-0 in second half. Browns lost six of last seven visits here. 0-6 Cleveland is 2-2 as a road dog, losing on foreign soil by 19-6-11-2 points- this is their fifth road game in seven weeks- they’re 10-8-1 in last 19 games as a road dog. Bengals are 13-7-1 in their last 21 games as a home favorite, 1-1 this season.

Bills (4-2) @ Dolphins (2-4) — Buffalo is 4-0 since switching OCs and running ball more; they ran for 312 yards in win over 49ers LW, are averaging 211.8 RY/game since the change in OC. Bills are 7-5-1 in last 13 games as a road favorite, 1-0 this year- they outscored last three foes 45-9 in second half. Dolphins ran ball for 222 yards LW, after averaging 72.4 in first five games; since 2012, they’re 8-4-1 as home dogs. Bills won five of last six games with Miami, with four of five wins by 16+ points- they ran ball for 417 yards in 41-14/33-17 wins over Dolphins LY. NFL-wide, home underdogs are 9-2 vs spread in divisional games. Miami is 4-10 in last 14 games where spread was 3 or less points (0-0 this year); Buffalo is 15-12-1 in last 28 games with spread of 3 or less points. Bills’ best RB McCoy (hamstring) is out for this game.

Raiders (4-2) @ Jaguars (2-3) — Jax came back from dead in Chicago LW; they trailed 13-0 in 4th quarter, rallied for 17-16 win, their second win in row after an 0-3 start. Jaguars are 0-2 at home this year, with two losses by total of six points; they’re 6-10 under Bradley in games with spread of 3 or less points- they’re 9-4 in last 13 games as a home favorite, but that goes back six years. Underdogs are 5-1 vs spread in Oakland’s first six games; they’re 3-0 SU on road, all as an underdog- they’re 8-1 as road underdogs under Del Rio. Raiders are 4-6 under Del Rio in games with spread of 3 or less. Home side won last four series games; Raiders lost 49-11/38-31 in last two visits here. AFC South teams are 9-8 vs spread outside the division; AFC West teams are 9-6.

Colts (2-4) @ Titans (3-3 )— Indy led 23-9 with 4:00 left at Houston LW, lost in OT, tough game to bounce back from; they’re 0-2 on road this year, losing 34-20 (+6) at Denver, 26-23 in OT at Houston (+3). Colts are 8-7-1 in last 16 games as a road underdog; they won last nine games with Tennessee, winning last four visits here, by 6-3-17-2 points- six of last eight series games were won by 8 or less points. Titans ran ball for 372 yards in winning last two games to even its record; Tennessee is 1-2 SU at home, with only win over 0-6 Browns- they’re 2-8-1 in last 11 games as a home favorite. Tennessee is 5-14-3 in last 22 games with spread of 3 or less points. Indy is 10-11 in last 21 games with spread of 3 or less. NFL-wide, home favorites are 4-11 vs spread in divisional games this season.

Ravens (3-3) @ Jets (1-5) — Ravens lost last three games after an 0-3 start; all six of their games were decided by six or less points. Baltimore is in Swamp Stadium for second week in row after losing to Giants 27-23 in last 2:00 LW- they had scored with 2:04 left to take lead. Jets were inept Monday night; Fitzpatrick has now thrown 10 INTs, no TDs in second half of games this year- will they switch to Smith at QB? Home crowd won’t be much help for Jets unless they get off to fast start. Baltimore won last eight series games, winning last three here by 1-3-14 points- last visit against Jets here was in 2010. NFC North non-divisional road teams are 4-8 vs spread. AFC East home teams are 6-3. Jets have been outscored 51-7 in second half of their last four games. Flacco didn’t practice Wed/Thurs (check status). His backup is former Pats/Texans QB Ryan Mallett.

Buccaneers (2-3) @ 49ers (1-5) — Tampa Bay averaged just 86.6 rushing yards/game in their 2-3 start, but both wins came on road, in Atlanta/Carolina. Bucs are road favorite for first time since 2013; since ’07 they’re 3-5-1 as road faves. Tampa is 3-8 in last 11 games where spread was 3 or less points. 49ers lost last five games, giving up 312 rushing yards in 45-16 loss at Buffalo LW. Niners are 13-8-3 in last 24 games with spread of 3 or less- they’re 17-5 in series, winning four of last five. Buccaneers are 2-12 here, losing last visit 48-3 five years ago. Tampa Bay lost four of last five post-bye games; NFC South non-divisional favorites are 1-4 vs spread; NFC West home teams are 1-5. Three of Bucs’ last four games stayed under total; four of 49ers’ last five games went over.

Chargers (2-4) @ Falcons (4-2) — San Diego had three extra days to rest/prep after beating the Broncos last Thursday. Chargers have frittered away games at the end; all four of their losses are by 4 or less points, or in OT- they’re 20-9-1 vs spread in last 30 games as a road underdog, and have yet to trail (5-0-1) at half this season. Atlanta gained 269 yards just in the third quarter in Seattle LW, losing 26-24 in last 2:00. Falcons won eight of nine meetings with Bolts, who are 1-2 in Atlanta but haven’t been here since ’04. Six of last seven series totals were 38 or less. San Diego allowed 26+ points in four losses, 14-13 in wins; Atlanta is scoring 33.2 pts/game- they were held to 24 in both losses. Over is 4-2 in Charger games, 5-1 in Falcon games. NFC South favorites are 1-4 vs spread in non-divisional games. AFC West underdogs are 5-3.

Patriots (5-1) @ Steelers (4-2) — Roethlisberger (knee) is out here; Landry Jones (1-1 as starter), gets nod here— he didn’t last too long (4 passes) in the one win (vs Browns). New England won 33-13/35-17 in Brady’s first two games this year; NE is 5-12 in last 17 games as a road favorite, 1-0 this year. Patriots won six of last eight games vs Steelers, winning three of last four visits here. Average total in last ten series games is 50.7. Pittsburgh is 7-22 on third down in their two losses, 27-52 in their wins; their defense has zero takeaways in last two games (-3). AFC North non-divisional underdogs are 2-5 vs spread. Since ’04, Steelers are 12-5 vs spread in game following a game when Pitt lost as a favorite. Four of last five Patriot games stayed under total; four of six Steeler games also stayed under.

Seahawks (4-1) @ Cardinals (3-3) — Seattle won its last three games since 9-3 loss in LA;, scoring 10 TDs on 32 drives after scoring one TD in 22 drives in first two games- they rallied back for 26-24 win over Falcons LW, after giving up 269 yards in third quarter alone to Atlanta. Short week for Redbirds after they waxed Jets 28-3 Monday; Arizona is +9 in turnovers in its three wins, -6 in its three losses (they were +2 in loss to NE). Cards are 15-3-1 under Arians in games where spread was 3 or less points; Seattle is 7-3-2 in last 12 such games. Cardinals are 5-4 in last nine series games, 3-2 in last five played here; Cardinals swept Seattle 39-32/36-6 LY, their first series sweep of Seahawks since 2009. Under is 4-2 in Arizona games; last three Seattle games went over the total.

Texans (4-2) @ Broncos (4-2) — Osweiler returns to Mile High City after bolting for Houston in free agency last winter; he rallied his new team back from down 23-9 with 4:00 left for dramatic win Sunday night, but Houston is 0-2 on road, losing 27-0 in Foxboro, 31-13 in Minnesota (Texans have one TD on 21 drives on road). Kubiak returns to sideline for Denver to face his former team; Broncos are 3-2 in last five series games, with average total of 48.2. Broncos lost last two games after 4-0 start, scoring two TDs on 24 drives after scoring 11 TDs on 41 drives in first four games. Home side won/covered all five Houston games this year; they lost 27-0/31-13 in ugly losses at Foxboro/Minnesota, but those might be two best teams in NFL. Last three Denver games stayed under the total; last three Houston games went over.

Armadillosports.com

NFL Week 7 Best Bets
By Sportsbook.ag

Last week's NFL Best Bets turned out to be good ones as that 2-0 sweep of the card finally arrived six weeks into the season. Miami definitely played like their season was on the line in beating Pittsburgh outright, while the Giants overcame a few mistakes and got a big play from Odell Beckham in the final minutes to come away with the W.

This week we've got a bunch of games with very tight spreads and it's two of those games that make this week's card.

Best Bet #1: Minnesota Vikings -3

The 5-0 SU and ATS Minnesota Vikings are back after a week off and they head to Philadelphia to take on the Eagles. Minnesota has covered 10 straight games against the number dating back to their Wildcard defeat vs. Seattle last year (includes the preseason), and look like a legitimate contender to make a deep run in this year's playoffs with the defense they've got.

No Minnesota opponent has scored more than 16 points against this team in their five victories and that unit should be able to frustrate and harass rookie QB Carson Wentz.

Wentz was a media darling after he got the Eagles off to a 3-0 start, but the Eagles have lost their last two games. Both of those came on the road so being back at home is a positive for the Eagles, but Wentz and company have yet to face a top tier defense like the Vikings have and this one could get ugly in a hurry. Philadelphia is just 9-19-1 ATS in their last 29 games against a team with a winning record and have a 2-8-1 ATS mark at home against a team with a winning road record. Chances are the Eagles won't be the first team to put up 17+ points on Minnesota this week and if that's the case, they aren't going to have much of a shot at covering.

Finally, we can't forget that Minnesota has been a great bet away from home during the Mike Zimmer era as they are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 away from home. They are also 6-0 ATS in their last six against a winning team, 22-4 ATS after covering the number in their last contest, and have had two weeks to prepare how to attack Philadelphia on both sides of the ball. Teams off a bye haven't been great ATS so far this year, but Minnesota will buck that trend this week.

Best Bet #2: Indianapolis Colts +3

I don't need to spend much time talking about the brutal collapse the Colts went through last week in Houston as a 14-point lead with seven minutes left should be safe for any NFL team. But now the OT defeat puts the Colts at 2-4 SU and in last place in the AFC South. Like the Dolphins last week, this is one of those games where the season is basically on the line for Indy and they'll find a way to get the job done this time around.

The Colts have not lost to Tennessee since Andrew Luck came to town in 2012, and with an 0-2 SU record within the division right now, Indy's got to have this game. Offensively, they showed some good things a week ago in Houston with the O-Line looking much better than they have in the first few weeks of the year and even RB Frank Gore and the running game had a solid effort.

Obviously the offense would have preferred to close out the game themselves with a first down or two in the final minutes, but if the Colts want any hope of being a playoff team in 2016, they've got to put that loss behind them and move on. Even at 2-4 SU they are only two games out of first place in the division right now and do still have three division home games remaining after this week where they can make up more ground.

Tennessee has looked good during this two-game winning streak they are currently on, but this is still a team that's 1-for-3 in getting home wins this year and that first victory came last week against the hapless Browns. I'm not so sure the Titans will be completely ready to deal with a desperate Colts bunch this week, especially when recent history suggests that this is one team the Titans just haven't been able to beat.

Tennessee is 1-8 ATS in the last nine meetings with Indy, and are just 8-23-1 ATS after their last 32 outright victories. That last trend added another loss to the column after they failed to cover against Cleveland a week ago.

NFL's Biggest Betting Mismatches: Week 7
By Monty Andrews
Covers.com

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (+3, 44)

Bills' red-zone D vs. Dolphins' touchdown woes

The Buffalo Bills have been one of the more impressive teams over the last month, rattling off four consecutive victories while entering Week 7 action tied with the Pittsburgh Steelers for the best touchdown differential in the league (+12). But it's the Buffalo defense that has been the real strength of the team, making it a modest favorite entering a divisional showdown with a Miami Dolphins team coming off an impressive win over visiting Pittsburgh.

The Bills have been their stoutest deep in their own territory, allowing foes to convert red-zone visits into touchdowns just 33.3 percent of the time - the best rate in the NFL, and well ahead of the 60-percent rate opponents scored red-zone TDs a season ago. Buffalo has allowed red-zone TDs just 14.3 percent of the time over its last three games, a major reason why the Bills are in the hunt for the AFC East lead despite opening the season with two straight losses.

They shouldn't face much red-zone resistance Sunday against the Dolphins, who rank a distant 26th in turning red-zone visits into touchdowns (47.1 percent); that rate dips to 37.5 percent over the last three. Settling for field goals over touchdowns could ultimately leave the Dolphins short on the scoreboard against a Buffalo defense that has overcome injury and a slow start to become one of the top units in the league.

Daily fantasy fade: WR Jarvis Landry

Baltimore Ravens at New York Jets (-1, 41.5)

Ravens' ball hawks vs. Jets' turnover problems

The Baltimore Ravens' defense is no longer the feared unit it was when linebacker Ray Lewis was patrolling the field. But while the 2015 edition of the Ravens D left fans wanting, this year's incarnation appears to be much better - at least where turnovers are concerned. Baltimore has bruised the opposition into coughing up the ball, and is looking at a sensational matchup in that regard Sunday afternoon against the turnover-prone New York Jets.

The 3-3 Ravens are riding a three-game losing skid into this week's encounter, but they probably deserved a better fate last time out as they dropped a 27-23 decision to the New York Giants despite forcing three turnovers. Baltimore ranks tied for fifth in average takeaways per game (1.8), and they're at +3 in turnover differential for the season - a significant improvement from 2015, when their -14 differential for the season ranked second-last in the league.

The Jets know how that goes; they've forced just three turnovers in six games while coughing up the ball an unfathomable 15 times - good for a -12 turnover differential that is easily the worst in the league. Ryan Fitzpatrick's six interceptions in a Sept. 25 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs certainly didn't help, but it's hardly the only major transgression - and now they have Geno Smith as their starting pivot. Look for Baltimore to hound the Jets into multiple turnovers, and to turn those free possessions into points.

Daily fantasy watch: Ravens D/ST

Washington Redskins at Detroit Lions (-1, 48.5)

Redskins' pitiful punting vs. Lions' league-leading leg

Both the Washington Redskins and the Detroit Lions should put their passing prowesses on display in what is expected to be one of the highest-scoring games of the week. But should these offenses struggle and be forced to play the field-position game, the Lions should find themselves with a significant advantage - and that could mean the difference between climbing back above .500 and scrambling to remain in the playoff hunt.

Punter Sam Martin has been a revelation for the Lions so far this season, leading the league in net yards per attempt (47.0) by nearly 1.5 yards over runner-up Thomas Morestead. He has pinned opponents inside the 20-yard line on 10 occasions - just outside the top-10 at his position, despite having fewer punt attempts than everyone ahead of him on the list. Simply put, he has helped the Lions dominate field position even when the offense isn't clicking.

The Redskins haven't been nearly as fortunate, which could be their undoing this weekend. Washington ranks fifth from the bottom in net yards per punt (37.3), with Tress way averaging a mediocre 44.6 gross yards per attempt. At nearly 10 fewer yards per punt attempt than the Lions, the Redskins are clearly better off converting their chances rather than getting into a kicking game with one of the best in the business in Martin.

Daily fantasy watch: Lions D/ST

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (-2, 43.5)

Seahawks' stingy pass D vs. Cardinals' limp aerial assault

They may not be able to pull off the "Legion of Boom" monicker of years past, but the Seattle Seahawks still have a defense to be respected. Coming off a thrilling come-from-behind win over the visiting Atlanta Hawks, the Seahawks set their sights on Arizona in a divisional showdown with a Cardinals team that cruised past the New York Jets, but is still struggling to find consistency in the passing game - a weakness that could sink them on Sunday.

Despite getting torched by Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan in Week 6, the Seahawks come into this one having allowed the fifth-fewest passing yards per game (209.0) and only four passing touchdowns on the year - three of which came courtesy of Ryan. The opposing quarterback rating of 74.9 is the fourth-lowest in football, and is slightly better than the 79.6 rating opposing QBs posted against the Seahawks in 2015.

The Cardinals have been even stingier against opposing signal callers - allowing a minuscule 65.8 passer rating - but it's the Arizona offense that will be under the microscope this week. Arizona's 77.2 passer rating, compiled by Carson Palmer and Drew Stanton, ranks ahead of only four other teams - and it's miles below the 96.5 rating the Cardinals boasted last season. Look for Palmer to have difficulty moving the chains against a Seattle defensive unit that remains one of the most imposing in football.

Daily fantasy fade: WR Larry Fitzgerald

NFL Week 7 Essentials
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com

Another NFL Sunday will open in London’s Wembley Stadium, so strap in for a longer session of marathon viewing. The Giants are supplying plenty of story lines to draw local interest, while the on-field circumstances – falling below .500 through seven games – should get our attention early. From top-to-bottom, it looks like the most entertaining card we’ve had in a few weeks. Here’s what you need to know before wagering on Week 7:

N.Y. Giants vs. Los Angeles: Odell Beckham, Jr. comes off one of those games that single-handedly swing fantasy weeks, so it’s fitting his breakout won one for his actual squad, too. Not that he celebrated with them, but that’s another story. Beckham will look to shine overseas against a Rams secondary that is still without top corner Trumaine Johnson (ankle), who will miss another contest despite traveling and getting his walking boot off. The Rams defense has been a shell of itself due to injuries that have left Aaron Donald a little lonely, which is why they’ve surrendered 30.5 points over the past two games. Robert Quinn and William Hayes should be in the mix, while Michael Brockers (hip) will remain out. Beckham had a hip issue keep him out earlier in the week, but he’s fine and set to fuel an offense that got Rashad Jennings back and comes off matching its season-high with 27 points. Eli Manning is 4-0 in his career against the Rams, throwing 12 touchdowns and just one pick, while counterpart Case Keenum comes off a four-TD game where he set a franchise record with 19 straight completions. Robbie Gould will kick for New York instead of Josh Brown, who was left off the trip and placed on the commissioner's exempt list.

Minnesota at Philadelphia: Sam Bradford is back in Philly in all his undefeated glory, squaring off against rookie Carson Wentz, who still hasn’t lost at home and can therefore continue to walk on water. Carson City, Wentzylvania will continue to thrive if the No. 2 overall pick can excel against the NFL’s top defense, but he’s got his work cut out for him. Wentz was pressured into mistakes in losses at Detroit and Washington and no longer has Lane Johnson (suspension) protecting him up front, so this will be a telling test for his development. The Vikings have allowed a single offensive touchdown in each of their past two games, come off a bye and surrender a league-low 12.6 points per game. They’re 1-1 after bye weeks under Mike Zimmer, giving up 15.5 points. Stefon Diggs, the team’s top playmaker not on IR, is questionable with a groin injury that kept him out in Week 5 but has a legitimate shot to return. Philly’s top WR, Jordan Matthews, will play through a knee issue.

New Orleans at Kansas City: The Saints come off a huge win over Carolina to restore a little hope that this season won’t be a lost cause, but putting together a three-game winning streak is going to depend on them getting stops that have mostly eluded them thus far. Drew Brees hasn’t had a problem moving a Saints offense that averages 31.0 points, second-highest in the league, but the defense gives up an NFL-worst 33.6. Four of their five games have gone over the posted total, each reaching 69 or more points. New Orleans is hoping to have LB Dannell Ellerbe (quad) back, but has shaken up its linebacker corps in an effort to try and shake up a group without a number of guys it expected would be starters and key contributors. The Chiefs are far healthier and come off a statement road win in Oakland where the secondary shined again, Marcus Peters added another interception and an aggressive defense continued to thrive despite the continued absence of sack master Justin Houston (knee). He returned to practice on Wednesday, while LB Tamba Hali and CB Phillip Gaines got back from less significant knee ailments, so Kansas City should be able to overcome losing DE Allen Bailey (pectoral) for the season last week. The Saints lost the last meeting between these teams in 2012, but won in their last trip to Arrowhead in ’08.

Washington at Detroit: Both teams come in on winning streaks and would be part of the NFC playoff picture heading to the season’s halfway point with a win here. Detroit has had an edge in being able to play its last two games at Ford Field and finds itself there again, looking for dome-field advantage against a ‘Skins squad that is a perfect 2-0 on the road thus far and has won five straight dating back to last season. Winning without RBs Theo Riddick (ankle) and Ameer Abdullah will likely be the task for the Lions again this week with Riddick unlikely to get back. Newly-signed RB Justin Forsett should get carries alongside Zach Zenner, but most of the heavy lifting should again be done by Matthew Stafford. TE Eric Ebron (knee, ankle) has been out as well and will likely be a game-time decision, so Golden Tate could be in for another big day after coming up with a career-high 165 receiving yards against L.A. DE Ziggy Ansah (ankle) finally made it back last week, but Detroit’s defense could be missing top LB Deandre Levy (quad) and DT Haloti Ngata for a second straight game. Washington TE Jordan Reed and S Su’a Cravens remain in concussion protocol, but may be cleared in time to participate. WR DeSean Jackson is also optimistic he’ll return from a shoulder injury. Detroit has won three straight in the series, but the ‘Skins are looking for their first five-game winning streak since late 2012.

Cleveland at Cincinnati: The Bengals have defeated their AFC North rival Browns three straight times and won eight of 11, but this one could have a decidedly different feel. Cincinnati has won the last three meetings by a combined margin of 98-13, embarrassing Cleveland at every turn, but must now face the offensive coordinator at the helm for those wins, current Browns head coach Hue Jackson. Although he’s at the helm of the NFL’s only winless team, Cleveland has shown some improvement despite all its injuries and has covered two of its last three road games. Rookie QB Cody Kessler has had an impressive stint and will probably keep the job when Josh McCown (clavicle) returns, but pulling off an upset in the game oddsmakers see as Week 7’s most lopsided hinges on getting WR Terrelle Pryor and CB Joe Haden back from injuries. The Bengals may get TE Tyler Eifert back after an extended absence, so their offense could have more bite, a necessity since they’ve averaged 16.0 points over their four losses.

Buffalo at Miami: The Dolphins have won consecutive games only once over their last 30, so seeing them as a home underdog in this spot shouldn’t be a surprise. Miami did take apart Pittsburgh in Week 6’s biggest upset after injuring Ben Roethlisberger, so this is an opportunity to claw back into the AFC race. The Bills have won four straight since losing to the Jets at home, winning by double-digits and covering each time out. This week’s major question mark surrounds the availability of LeSean McCoy, who suffered a hamstring injury in practice and may sit this out. Marcell Dareus may finally return from a hammy ailment of his own, while rookie Shaq Lawson is certain to debut, so the Buffalo defensive line could be a force. Meanwhile, the Dolphins’ projected starting offensive line was finally intact with Branden Albert and rookie Laremy Tunsil returning and Mike Pouncey settling in, so they’re optimistic after springing Jay Ajayi for over 200 yards and not allowing a single Ryan Tannehill sack. Buffalo has won five of six in the series.

Oakland at Jacksonville: The Jaguars survived getting blanked through three quarters when Blake Bortles hit a fortunate late TD pass to Arrelious Benn for a 17-16 win at Chicago. They’re as healthy as any team in the league at the moment and looking for their first three-game since 2013, which would only be their third such run this decade. Jacksonville is also in search of its first home victory since last December. The Raiders are tied for first place in the AFC West with defending champ Denver despite a poor showing in a home loss to Kansas City where they produced a season-low 10 points, managing just a field goal over the last three quarters. Look for the start here to be critical since the Raiders haven’t trailed after a first quarter all season, while the Jaguars have only led after one once, coming up with just two offensive touchdowns, both on short fields. Jack Del Rio is returning to Jacksonville for the first time as head coach of another team after compiling a 68-71 record while serving there from 2003-11, reaching the playoffs only twice. The Raiders have won the last two meetings, both against their current coach’s successors.

Indianapolis at Tennessee: The Colts are looking for their 10th consecutive win in this series against their AFC South foe, having won 14 of 15. The last meeting featured Zach Mettenberger and Josh Freeman as starting QBs, but we did get one Andrew Luck/Marcus Mariota duel. The Colts won 35-33 when the Titans failed on a last-minute two-point conversion, so we could see another fun one. Indianapolis is desperate, looking to avoid a 2-5 start that would probably cost Chuck Pagano his job on top of last week’s collapse in Houston. The Titans are looking for their first three-game winning streak since early 2011 and are favored against the Colts for the first time since ’12, back in Luck’s first visit to Nashville. He won that 19-13 in OT and has never lost to Tennessee, but will have to survive this trip with a banged-up receiving corps working against a healthier Titans squad.

Baltimore at N.Y. Jets: New York turns to Geno Smith at QB in a move that seems to be coming from upstairs. Ryan Fitzpatrick rightfully lost the job, but it seemed like Todd Bowles wanted to give him one last chance in their most winnable game in weeks before being waved off. Smith was picked off in Arizona and has been intercepted in three of his last four appearances, making him 24-for-32 over his career. For once, the Jets will be facing a team that has had worse injury luck than they have, since it appears Baltimore will be without Steve Smith, Sr., and key offensive lineman Marshal Yanda in addition to having key defensive players Terrell Suggs, Elvis Dumervil, C.J. Mosely, Jimmy Smith all nursing injuries of varying degrees. QB Joe Flacco is nursing a shoulder issue and hasn’t practiced, so he looks like a game-time decision. Flacco has never lost against the Jets, who have dropped their last eight against the Ravens, winning only the inaugural meeting back in 1997 (20-17 OT).

San Diego at Atlanta: The Falcons managed to rally from an ugly start in Seattle and convinced any remaining doubters that they’re for real despite a 26-24 loss. They lead the NFL in scoring (33.2) and look far more proficient than last year, when they fell apart after a 5-0 start. We’ll see if they have staying power this season, but they’ve got an obscene array of weapons. Devonte Freeman and Tevin Coleman form the top RB combo in the league, Julio Jones is among the top receivers and Atlanta’s tight ends can all stretch the field. Mohamed Sanu (groin), who has also been a huge asset, is the only significant offensive player hurting. The Chargers are traveling cross-country on extra rest after an upset of the Broncos on Oct. 13 but have started 0-3 on the road. San Diego has never won at the Georgia Dome and hasn’t beaten Atlanta in six tries dating back to its last win back in 1988.

Tampa Bay at San Francisco: Colin Kaepernick will make his second start for the 49ers, coming off an erratic performance in a 45-15 loss at Buffalo where he wasn’t intercepted but created few big plays. San Francisco’s offense has run the NFL’s most plays under Chip Kelly, but that has put his injury-depleted defense in a tough spot since time of possession isn’t a priority and his offense hasn’t been productive. No team has given up more points than San Francisco, which hopes to turn things around by feasting on an opponent that also ranks among the league’s worst in point-differential. Coming off a bye week after an upset of Carolina, the Bucs are looking to get to .500 if they can overcome the continued absence of RB Doug Martin and WR Vincent Jackson, who was just put on IR. This will be the Bucs’ first trip to Santa Clara-based Levi’s Stadium and Jameis Winston’s first game against the Niners. Tampa Bay has lost four of the last five on this series.

New England at Pittsburgh: The Steelers hope their homefield advantage can keep this close to steal as they open up a stretch without starting QB Ben Roethlisberger against the mighty Patriots. After minor knee surgery earlier this week, Roethlisberger won’t be available for a few weeks, which leaves Landry Jones to man a potent offense. Keeping things simple and getting the ball to elite playmakers Antonio Brown and LeVeon Bell should be a formula for success, but Jones playing well enough to win is only half the battle. Pittsburgh remains without DE Cameron Hayward (hamstring) but are expected to get LB Ryan Shazier (knee) back in the mix. Tom Brady will have to be careful with the football against a defense that’s faster than most, so there’s a chance the Steelers can stay perfect at home. Dating back to last season, they’ve won seven straight at Heinz Field. New England has won six of eight in the series, including three of four in Pittsburgh.

Seattle at Arizona: There shouldn’t be many opportunities to nod off in this Sunday night game as the NFC West’s top two teams clash. The Cardinals can now move back above .500 if they hold serve at home in what will be their fifth outing in Glendale, which is another reason why they don’t want to let this one get away. Seattle can grab a 2.5-game lead in the division, not to mention a head-to-head edge with a home game remaining, if it can pull this upset. The Seahawks may be without safety Kam Chancellor (groin), which would be an even bigger loss given Richard Sherman’s sideline outburst last week shedding light on the disharmony among their elite secondary. DEs Michael Bennett and Frank Clark are likely to play, so Seattle should get after Carson Palmer, who has missed practices this week due to a hamstring issue. He’s not very mobile as it is, so Arizona may have to turn back to Drew Stanton as it looks for a third straight win. Seattle won in Arizona 36-6 in Week 17 last season and hasn’t lost there since 2012, taking the last three meetings by a combined margin of 105-34.

Houston at Denver: This one is the Brock Osweiler Bowl. Despite largely disappointing, the former Broncos backup has led the Texans to a 4-2 start, putting them atop the AFC South. If you checked out of the Sunday night game early, you were likely shocked when you awoke to news Houston came back to beat the Colts in OT. Osweiler led the comeback, saving his best throws for last, but mostly struggled until the final few drives. He can’t afford a sluggish start on the road against a defense that has made no secret that they would love to tear their former teammate apart. Texans CB Johnathan Joseph (forearm) will play, CB Kareem Jackson (hamstring) is likely but safety Quintin Demps (calf) probably won’t play, so their secondary remains injury-plagued. That’s good news for Trevor Siemian, who looked shaky in a Thursday night road loss at San Diego as the Broncos struggled with protection. Denver has won three of the five meetings since 2004, including a 37-13 rout in Houston in ’13.

Vegas Money Moves - Week 7
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

The public parlay bettors in Las Vegas are all in on the Patriots, Vikings, Raiders, Bills, Seahawks and Broncos, but the big concern for South Point sports book director Chris Andrews on Friday was the four games hovering around '3', the most key number in the NFL.

"We're a little different over here how we handle 3," said Andrews," so we've got big some exposure already."

What the South Point does different is being the only sports book to exclusively use flat numbers. You won't see -2.5 (-120), -3 (EV) or +3.5 (-120) on their boards on the south end of the strip.

While other books use it a way to deflect an onslaught of action by adding extra juice on a desired number, the South Point takes multiple limit bets at the flat key number before moving. Andrews says it usually takes three to four of those limit bets before moving up or down the ladder, but it's also dependent on what the market is showing.

So far through six weeks of action his book has been sided or middled just once with the favorite landing 3.

"The big one so far that has been one-sided is Tennessee (at home vs. Colts) who we opened -2.5, which they (sharps) laid, and then they laid -3 also, so we're real close to going to -3.5," said Andrews.

When they are eventually pushed to moved, they'll certainly get buy-back on the Colts at +3.5, a team whose last two losses were by three points each.

The Vikings opened -2.5 at Philadelphia on Monday and it didn't take long for the wagers to accumulate enough to move to -3. "We've bounced back and forth on that game," he said. "Each time at +3, we saw Philly action, but it's settled down a bit since Tuesday."

The Eagles were popular plays after they destroyed the Steelers 34-3 in Week 3, but after two straight losses, the public is off the wagon and sides with the Vikings coming off a bye who are the only team to win and cover all five of their games. A straight-up win by the Eagles is what the house wants here.

Just about every book in the city has the Giants -3 (EV) for their London game against the Rams -- MGM Resorts has -2.5 (-120). But Andrews is sitting -2.5-flat and he's ping ponged a couple times up to -3-flat. Large straight bet action accumulated enough taking +3 that he went back to -2.5 on Friday morning.

The Bills have been one or the more popular bets with small money this week in their game at Miami, but enough large wagers took the Dolphins +3 that Andrews dropped it down to -2.5 on Thursday. It's the only -2.5-flat on the Bills in town and while smaller wagers are adding up quickly on the Bills, he's sitting fine on the game, minus the huge Bills parlay risk.

The Bills have won and covered their last four coming in and have gone 5-1 SU and ATS in their last six meetings with Miami, but they'll be without its best player in RB LeSean McCoy (hamstring).

One of the more surprising bets of the week has been such early action on the Broncos for their Monday night home against the Texans. It's unusual to see the Monday night game get so much attention this early in the week, especially from the parlay players. When the South Point opened Denver -7 on Monday, they were bet up to -7.5 within two hours and then went to -8 on Thursday.

"I can see the logic behind the Denver wagers," said Andrews. "You've got Brock Osweiler making his return to Denver, and the Broncos last two losses had one without their starting quarterback and the other without their head coach. This kind of looks like a good spot for them to bounce back."

Gary Kubiak will be back coaching on the sidelines Monday and Trevor Siemian will be starting at QB,

Andrews said he also took big wagers on the Lions -1 at home against the Redskins and the Saints +7 at Kansas City. The Saints, typically not known for traveling well, have covered their last four road games.

The dreaded five-team parlay that could wipe the books out Sunday if all five cover are New England laying -7 at Pittsburgh (without Ben Roethlisberger), Minnesota (-3) at Philadelphia, Oakland (+1) at Jacksonville, Buffalo (-3) at Miami and Seattle (+2) at Arizona.

The sports books all across town will hope to avoid losing on a few of those consensus public plays on Sunday, but then they head into the Monday night game which is going to be a whopper of risk with everything piled into a game that has already been heavily bet early the week.

NFL: Streak, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles

The Minnesota Vikings arguably one of the best defensive teams in the league since coach Mike Zimmer's arrival in 2014 put a 5-0 SU/ATS streak on the line Sunday when they visit Eagles. Vikings with the leagues top scoring defense (12.6) not difficult making a case for the NFL's newest money-making-machine. Vikings enter this contest ridding a sparkling 9-0 ATS regular season streak, 18-2 ATS regular season stretch dating back to Week-2 last season. Vikings are also 15-3 ATS vs a team off a loss its previous game. A few additional betting nuggets in Vikings favor is that Eagles are 0-4 ATS off a loss vs a team off a win, 1-3 ATS off a loss as a favorite, 2-8-1 ATS hosting a team with a winning road record.

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals

The eyes of most football fans, as well as those focused on football betting, will be on the Sunday Night NFC West showdown between Seattle Seahawks (4-1, 2-3 ATS) and Arizona Cardinals (3-3 SU/ATS). The sports handicapping experts at Bovada.lv are giving Cardinals the nod in this game, making them -1.0 point home favorites while setting the total at 43.5.

Both teams are off victories. Cardinals crushed visiting Jets 28-3 Monday Night as -7.0 point home chalk while Seahawks edged Atlanta 26-24 Sunday as a -7.0 point home favorites.

When handicapping this contest a few betting nuggets to ponder. Cardinals have not responded at the betting window following a win of 20 or more points (1-5 ATS), have struggled cashing after B-2-B SU/ATS wins (1-5 ATS), have not been a peg to hang your hopes on at home vs a division rival (1-4 ATS). On the other side, we've learned one thing about Seahawks, they've had their way with Arizona recently winning 5 of 7 both SU/ATS including 3-0 SU/ATS in Cardinals back-yard. Also, Seahawks thrive in an underdog roll (15-4-1 ATS) and are 7-2-1 ATS as road dogs vs a team off a win.

Pick Six - Week 7
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

Week 6 Record: 1-5 SU, 1-5 ATS
Overall Record: 16-20 SU, 13-23 ATS

Review: It's been anything but Lock-tober this month, as the Patriots were the lone team to cover in Week 6.

Vikings (-3, 39½) at Eagles

Minnesota
Record: 5-0 SU, 5-0 ATS, UNDER 3-2
Super Bowl Odds: 6/1

The Vikings are fresh off the bye week as Minnesota is the lone unbeaten team in the NFL at 5-0. Sam Bradford began training camp with the Eagles, but was dealt to the Vikings following Teddy Bridgewater’s season-ending knee injury. Bradford makes his return to Philadelphia as the Heisman Trophy winner has thrown six touchdown passes and no interceptions in four starts for Minnesota. Since Week 2 of 2015, the Vikings have compiled an incredible 19-2 ATS record the past 21 games, including nine consecutive covers on the road.

Philadelphia
Record: 3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS, 3-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 50/1

The Eagles jumped out to a quick 3-0 start under rookie quarterback Carson Wentz. However, Philadelphia has been grounded the last two weeks after losing at Detroit and Washington as a short road favorite. Philadelphia’s offense failed to bust the end zone in last week’s 27-20 defeat at Washington as Carson Wentz was limited to 11 completions and 279 yards passing. The Eagles own a perfect 2-0 SU/ATS record at home this season, as Philadelphia is hosting Minnesota for the first time since 2010 when the Vikings upset the Eagles as 14-point underdogs, 24-14.

Best Bet: Philadelphia +3

Saints at Chiefs (-6, 50½)

New Orleans
Record: 2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS, 4-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 200/1

The Saints have erased an 0-3 hole by winning consecutive games against the Chargers and Panthers by a combined four points. New Orleans has topped the 32-point mark in four of five games, while holding off Carolina as a 2½-point home underdog last Sunday, 41-38. The OVER has cashed easily in the last three games, as the Saints’ defense has allowed an average of 39 points per game in this span. Since Week 3 of last season, New Orleans has compiled an amazing 9-2 ATS record in its past 11 opportunities in the role of an underdog.

Kansas City
Record: 3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS, 3-2 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 20/1

The Chiefs have gone through an uneven start through the first five games, alternating wins and losses during this stretch. Kansas City shoots for its first two-game winning streak of the season after dominating Oakland last Sunday, 26-10 as one-point road favorites. The Chiefs held the dynamic Raiders’ offense to three points in the final 57 minutes, while Kansas City rushed for 183 yards and three different players found the end zone on the ground. Kansas City has taken back home-field advantage by winning seven straight games at Arrowhead Stadium since last October, but the Chiefs have covered only three times in this span.

Best Bet: Kansas City -6

Redskins at Lions (-1½, 50)

Washington
Record: 4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS, 5-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 30/1

The Redskins have overcome an 0-2 start to run off four consecutive victories to sit one game behind the Cowboys in the NFC East. Washington improved to 2-1 inside the division after holding off Philadelphia, 27-20 as three-point home underdogs, while limiting the Eagles to 249 yards of offense. Quarterback Kirk Cousins topped the 300-yard mark in each of the first two games (both losses), but hasn’t reached 300 yards passing in the last four contests, all victories. Washington has been dominant in the role of an underdog since last season, putting together an 8-1 SU/ATS record in its last nine when receiving points.

Detroit
Record: 3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS, 4-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 100/1

The Lions have been several exciting games at Ford Field this season as all three home contests have been decided by a total of five points. After blowing a fourth quarter lead in a Week 2 loss to Tennessee, Detroit held off Philadelphia and Los Angeles in close victories. The Lions posted their second-highest point total of the season in last Sunday’s 31-28 triumph over the Rams, as quarterback Matthew Stafford has thrown seven touchdown passes and no interceptions in the last two weeks. Detroit is hosting Washington for the first time since 2010, while the Lions beat the Redskins in their previous matchup in 2013 in D.C. by a 27-20 count.

Best Bet: Washington +1½

Raiders at Jaguars (-1, 47½)

Oakland
Record: 4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS, 4-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 25/1

The Silver and Black put up a thud last Sunday in a 26-10 home defeat to the Chiefs, as Oakland has been outgained in all six games this season. With running back Latavius Murray sidelined, the Raiders’ rushing attack was grounded by picking up only 64 yards. Murray is expected back in the lineup on Sunday, but he has also struggled out of the gate by gaining 235 yards in four games following 1,066 yards in 2015. However, Oakland has thrived in the road underdog role since Jack Del Rio took over as head coach last season by posting a perfect 8-0 ATS mark, including outright wins this season at New Orleans and Baltimore.

Jacksonville
Record: 2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS, 3-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 100/1

The AFC South may be the worst division in football, but you can’t say it’s not competitive. Jacksonville is one way away from the .500 mark after starting 0-3 as the Jaguars held off the Bears last Sunday, 17-16. The Jags scored all 17 of their points in the fourth quarter in spite of putting up only 311 yards for the game. Jacksonville has yet to bust through the win column at home as its first victory over Indianapolis came in London, as the Jaguars have lost six of their past nine games at Everbank Field since the start of 2015.

Best Bet: Oakland +1

Chargers at Falcons (-6, 54½)

San Diego
Record: 2-4 SU, 4-2 ATS, 4-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 80/1

There probably isn’t a team in the NFL that has played to more exciting finishes than the Chargers. Five of San Diego’s six games have come down to the final minutes, including last Thursday’s 21-13 home victory over Denver as three-point underdogs. After building a 21-3 advantage, the Broncos rallied to score 10 points and had a chance to tie the game on the final play, but couldn’t convert a Hail Mary pass. The Chargers travel to the east coast for the first time this season as San Diego has yet to win away from Qualcomm Stadium, owning an 0-3 SU and 2-1 ATS road mark.

Atlanta
Record: 4-2 SU, 5-1 ATS, 5-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 20/1

The Falcons are back at home for the first time since outlasting the Panthers in Week 4, as Atlanta split a pair of road games in tough environments at Denver and Seattle the last two weeks. Atlanta lost a 26-24 heartbreaker in Seattle in Week 6, but the Falcons managed a cover as seven-point underdogs for their fifth consecutive cover. The Falcons are listed as a favorite for only the second time this season, as Atlanta has cashed just once in 10 chalk opportunities since 2015. Atlanta cashed seven UNDERS in eight games at the Georgia Dome last season, but has eclipsed the OVER in both home contests this season.

Best Bet: San Diego +6

Patriots (-7, 47½) at Steelers

New England
Record: 5-1 SU, 5-1 ATS, 4-2 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 5/2

What a difference one player makes. Or just Tom Brady coming back from his four-game suspension. Brady has totaled 782 passing yards in two blowout victories over the Browns and Bengals, while throwing three touchdown passes in each win. Not only are the Patriots sitting atop the AFC East at 5-1, but New England has covered in all five victories. New England held off Pittsburgh in the 2015 season opener, 28-21 as 7½-point home favorites, as Brady carved up the Steelers’ defense for four touchdown tosses. The Pats have captured six of the previous eight meetings since January 2005, but New England fell in its past visit to Pittsburgh in 2011 by a 25-17 count.

Pittsburgh
Record: 4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS, 4-2 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 12/1

The Steelers will look to recover from last Sunday’s surprising 30-15 road favorite loss at Miami, as Pittsburgh also suffered a huge loss with quarterback Ben Roethlisberger injuring his left knee. Big Ben will miss several weeks as backup Landry Jones is thrust into the starting role. Jones came in relief to beat the Cardinals as a home underdog last season, but lost in his only NFL start at Kansas City the following week. The Steelers own a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS record at Heinz Field this season, while posting a 4-0 ATS mark in its past four home underdog opportunities since 2013.

Best Bet: New England -7

Total Talk - Week 7
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com

Week 6 Recap

The ‘over’ went 9-6 last week but some of those decisions were very fortunate to cash and there were four games that had late touchdowns scored in the final minutes to crush ‘under’ bettors.

Cleveland scored 13 points in the final two minutes against a Tennessee defense that’s been incredible in the second-half this season. Along with the game going ‘over’ the number, the Browns also earned the backdoor cover too with the late TDs.

The Giants and Ravens went back-and-forth in the fourth quarter and two late touchdowns in the last three minutes gave ‘over’ winners an improbable victory.

The Sunday Night finale between the Texans and Colts was probably the toughest to stomach if you had Indy or the ‘under’ in that game. Houston forced overtime with two touchdowns late and earned the win with a field goal in the extra session.

And I’m guessing most bettors had New England and the ‘over’ on Sunday in Tom Brady’s home debut and a meaningless TD with 52 seconds hurt bettors taking the ‘under’ while the public drilled the exacta.

Through six weeks, the ‘over’ has gone 49-42-1.

Quick Notes

It’s still early in the season but NFL ratings are down this season and pundits are pointing to a variety of factors. My argument for the decline would lean to the actual product on the field and the numbers back it up. The top five scoring offensive units from last season have watched their production decrease while the bottom five have all improved.

The Redskins, Falcons and Colts have all seen the ‘over’ start 5-1 this season behind solid quarterback play and average defensive units.

The Eagles (3.8 PPG) and Vikings (5.4 PPG) are ranked first and third respectively in second-half points per game, which has produced identical 4-1 ‘under’ marks in the final 30 minutes of their games. The pair meet Sunday and not surprisingly it’s the lowest total (39½) on the board.

Dating back to last season, the Saints have seen the ‘under’ go 5-1 on the road when the total is listed in the fifties. This week’s number for their game at Arrowhead versus the Chiefs is in that neighborhood.

Rise and Shine

The NFL International Series heads back to London, England this week as the Giants and Rams square off from Twickenham Stadium. The ‘over’ has gone 8-7 in the first 15 games from the United Kingdom and that includes the ‘over’ between the Jaguars and Colts in Week 4.

New York and Los Angeles are looking at total hovering between 43 and 44 points. The Rams have seen the ‘under’ go 3-0 in their divisional matchups while the ‘over’ is 3-0 in other games and the defense has allowed 32, 30 and 31 points in those games. The Giants have seen the ‘under’ go 4-2 this season but the defense has surrendered 24.8 points per game in their last four games.

The Giants played in the inaugural game from London in the 2007 season and they beat the Dolphins 13-10. The Rams made an overseas trip in 2012 when they were in St. Louis and they were hammered 45-7 by the Patriots.

Divisional Action

Cleveland at Cincinnati: The ‘under’ has cashed in four straight and five of the last six encounters between the pair. As stated above, the Bengals offense has taken a serious dip this season (18.8 PPG) compared to last year’s numbers (25.6 PPG). Coincidentally, they’ll face former offensive coordinator Hugh Green in this week’s matchup but the Browns defense (29.3 PPG, 403 YPG) remains suspect.

Buffalo at Miami: The Bills lit up the Dolphins last season for 41 and 33 points as the ‘over’ connected very easily in both contests. This year’s Buffalo team has won four straight after starting 0-2 and the success has been defense (17.2 PPG) and running the football (166.5 YPG). The issue for Buffalo is running back LeSean McCoy could miss Sunday’s game. The Dolphins are coming off a 30-point performance last week against a beat-up Pittsburgh club but that effort appears to be an anomaly. Miami’s offense is ranked last in first downs per games and 25th in total yards (332.2)

Indianapolis at Tennessee: The ‘over’ has gone 3-1 in the last four meetings and the Colts have averaged 33.3 PPG during this stretch. Colts QB Andrew Luck has never lost to the Titans but they’ve also picked him off (7 INTs) more than any other team in his career and that unit is much improved this season.

Coast-to-Coast

I believe that trends can help your handicapping and while it’s not the “be-all and end-all” for every matchup, some angles deserve extra attention when they’re producing great results. In my Week 4 edition of Total Talk, I touched on West Coast teams playing in the Eastern Time Zone and how the ‘over’ produced solid results in those games.

In 2015, those contests saw the ‘over’ go 11-5 (69%) and this year’s results have been perfect with a 6-0 record to the high side.

Week 2 - San Francisco 27 at Carolina 46 – Over 44½
Week 3 - Arizona 18 at Buffalo 33 – Over 48
Week 3 - Los Angeles 37 at Tampa Bay 32 – Over 40½
Week 4 - Oakland 28 at Baltimore 27 - Over 45
Week 4 - Seattle 27 at N.Y. Jets 17 - Over 40
Week 6 - San Francisco 16 at Buffalo 45 - Over 44

We have two games on tap for Week 7 where the above situation applies and both games have high numbers posted.

Oakland at Jacksonville (47½)
San Diego at Atlanta (54½)

Under the Lights

We’ve had 19 primetime games this season and the ‘under’ has gone 11-8-1, which includes the result from the past Thursday between Chicago and Green Bay.

Seattle at Arizona: This is a very tough total to handicap because neither team has been consistent this season. They’ve both looked sluggish at times and blowout victories came against weaker foes. Arizona’s offense is down this season (see above) and the club has actually been a great ‘under’ bet at home (8-1-1) dating back to last season. Plus, Seattle’s defense (8.6 PPG) has been ridiculous on the road in its last seven regular season games and that’s helped the ‘under’ go 5-2. What could have you leaning ‘over’ is the Russell Wilson factor. The QB is 5-3 overall and Seattle has averaged 30 PPG during this stretch, which includes 32 and 36-point efforts last season.

Houston at Denver: Low total (40½) for the MNF matchup and it’s a solid number just based on the defensive numbers for both the Broncos (18 PPG) and Texans (21.2 PPG). Plus, Houston has managed to scored 13 total points in two road games against quality completion (Patriots, Vikings) and hard to imagine a big spot here. The Broncos are playing with rest and the ‘under’ has gone 7-3 in their last 10 games following the bye week.

Fearless Predictions

Despite losing my two total plays, I was fortunate to hit the team total and teaser wager (luckily) which kept the weekly ($20) losses low and overall bankroll ($430) in the black. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: New England-Pittsburgh 47

Best Under: Buffalo-Miami 44½

Best Team Total: Over Cincinnati 28

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Minnesota-Philadelphia Under 48
Washington-Detroit Under 59
Houston-Denver Under 49½

SNF - Seahawks at Cardinals
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

The Cardinals come into Sunday Night Football as 1.5-point home favorites over the Seahawks in a critical NFC West battle where it's almost a 'do or die' situation for Arizona. The Cardinals have already played four games at home to a 2-2 record meaning after this week that they'll have only three home field edges in the final nine games of the season. There's urgency, for sure.

Seattle looked extremely sluggish in its first two games scoring a total of 15 points, including a 9-3 loss at Los Angeles, but they've been rather efficient in winning their last three averaging 30 points a game. They've won and covered their last three in the desert, but the Cards come in off their best game of the season in a 28-3 Monday night home win against the Jets to even their record at 3-3.

LINE MOVEMENT

The South Point opened the Cardinals -2 on Tuesday following the Monday night win and on Friday they took a Seattle wager to drop them down to -1.5. The total has been steady at 43.5 since opening. Before the Jets win the Westgate SuperBook opened Arizona -1 Sunday night and Seattle money pushed them to pick 'em an hour before Monday night kickoff. Way back in April, CG Technology made the Cards -1 when posting lines for every game of the first 16 weeks.

WHO DO THE BETTORS LIKE?

The Seahawks have been a popular wager at William Hill's 108 sports books across Nevada. They've taken in 91 percent of the point-spread action on Seattle and 71 percent of the tickets written on them. Guess the public doesn't think much of the Cardinals getting back to .500, or them being at home? Just for a reference, the public ganging up on team usually means the weight is too heavy and the other team wins. But isolated night games have been very good to the public's intuition this season.

ROBERTS' NUMBER

I have Seattle rated 1.5-point better than Arizona on a neutral field and I give the Cardinals +2.5 for home field, which makes my number Arizona -1. The only reason Arizona doesn't get the full 3-point advantage is because they're playing a better team. You could argue the Arizona home edge against Seattle is worth only 1-point and I wouldn't have many come back support for the Cards. Let's face it, the Cardinals are 3-3 now on a two-game win streak, but wins against the Jets, 49ers and Buccaneers, who are a combined 4-13 between them, don't lend many argument points. Will that 2015 teams show up soon? Let's see it first before believing it will happen. Last week was a decent start in believing the Cards may soon be back to themselves.

RECENT MEETINGS

Seattle has won and covered three of the past four meetings, including a 36-6 Week 17 win last season when Arizona was listed as a sxi-point home favorite. At the time, the Cardinals still had something to play for regrading the playoffs conditional upon what Carolina did, but the game was over quick as Seattle jumped out to a 30-6 lead. The total managed to still stay 'under' the number (46.5). At the time, many oddsmakers had the Cardinals power rated No. 1 in the NFL. When the two teams met in November at Seattle, Arizona won 39-32 as a three-point underdog.

TRENDS

Seattle is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games.
Seattle is 1-6 ATS in last seven games following a win.
Seattle has stayed 'under' in 13 of their last 19 games against NFC West teams.

Arziona is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games against losing teams.
Arizona has stayed 'under' total in last eight home games.
Arizona is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 home games.

KEY INJURIES

Seattle DB Kam Chancellor (groin) is expected to miss while Arizona G Mike Iupati (ankle) is probable. Cardinals WR Josh Brown (hamstring) is doubtful.

NEXT WEEK

Arizona gets a rematch at Carolina in Week 8, the team that ended the Cardinals 2015 season in the NFC Championship. The Westgate opened the 1-5 Panthers as 1-point favorites for their early lines, which come out each Tuesday. Seattle is 5.5-point favorites at New Orleans.

WEEK 10 BATTLE

We saw the matchup in the Super Bowl two years ago, and when they meet again in Week 10 the Westgate's updated Game of the Year numbers have New England listed as a six-point home favorite over the Seahawks. If we shoot ahead to Week 13. Seattle is seven-point home favorite against Carolina. The Panthers won at Seattle, 27-23, in Week 6 last season as seven-point 'dogs and beat them again, 31-24, at Carolina as 2.5-point favorites in the Divisional Playoff round.

NFC WEST ODDS

The Westgate opened Seattle as the 5/7 favorite to win the division and it's now 5/12. Arizona was 7/5 before the season, but their two-game win streak has them at 2/1 with respect given to them on the notion that the balance of the entire division swings with this Sunday night game.

SUPER BOWL ODDS

Seattle is a 6/1 co-favorite among NFC teams to win the Super Bowl along with the Minnesota Vikings. The Cardinals are getting tons of respect for what they're capable of with 12/1 odds. Dallas is 10/1 and Green Bay is 12/1. The hot team in the NFC right now, Atlanta, is 20/1 to win their first Super Bowl. New England is the 5/2 overall favorite.