Tip Sheet - Week 9
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
Following a week in which only one game involved both teams above .500, the Week 9 card showcases six games with clubs owning better than .500 marks. We'll take a look at the five games during the day, leading up to the Steelers/Ravens showdown on Sunday night. The AFC East can have a three-way tie by days' end if the Jets win and Patriots lose, but New York will be tested when it heads to Buffalo for an important division battle.
Jets at Bills (-1½, 44)
Buffalo is not letting up after a quick start as the Bills go for their sixth win of the season on Sunday. Chan Gailey's squad took care of the Redskins in Toronto last week, 23-0 as four-point favorites, bouncing back from a three-point loss to the Giants prior to the bye week. Now, Buffalo gets a shot at the other New York team, as the Jets own a surprising 0-3 SU/ATS mark on the highway.
The Jets' defense has been exploited in road losses at Oakland, Baltimore, and New England by allowing 32.7 ppg in those three games. Buffalo's offense has shined at home with three efforts of at least 30 points, while the 23 points put up against Washington was played on a neutral field. Both these teams are great 'over' plays this season with a combined 11-3 mark, as each meeting last season sailed 'over' the total. The Bills are playing with revenge this week after getting swept by the Jets in 2010, including a humiliating 38-14 home defeat as 6½-point underdogs.
Buccaneers at Saints (-8½, 50)
These two teams met up three weeks ago in Tampa, as the Bucs held off the Saints, 26-20 as six-point home 'dogs. New Orleans' roller-coaster ride since that loss has seen its thrills and spills, including a 62-7 pounding of the hapless Colts in front of a nationally-televised audience. A week later, the Saints couldn't get out of their own way in an ugly 31-21 setback at previously winless St. Louis, as New Orleans closed as a 13½-point road favorite.
The Bucs have been up and down all season, including a 48-3 blowout loss at San Francisco, while owning a 2-0 record inside the NFC South. Tampa Bay returns to the field after falling to Chicago in London, 24-18, two weeks ago to drop to 4-3. The Saints enter this contest with an amazing 0-6 ATS mark the last six games as a home favorite against division foes, including two non-covers against the Bucs in this span. In spite of Tampa Bay's defeat at San Francisco, the Bucs still own a solid 8-1 ATS record the last nine contests as a road underdog.
Bengals at Titans (-3, 41½)
Cincinnati continues to take care of business, coming off a wire-to-wire victory at struggling Seattle as short road favorites. The Bengals look for their sixth victory on the season as Marvin Lewis' team heads to Tennessee. The Titans bounced back from an embarrassing home loss to Houston with a rout of the winless Colts last week. Tennessee is still within striking distance inside the watered-down AFC South, but three of its four wins have come against also-rans (Denver, Cleveland, and Indianapolis).
The Bengals weren't great pointspread plays the last few seasons with Carson Palmer at quarterback, but rookie Andy Dalton has led Cincinnati to an impressive 6-1 ATS mark. All four teams in the AFC North rank in the top-five in the league in total defense, as the Bengals sit in fourth allowing 297 yards a game. However, that great defense isn't resulting in many 'under' plays, as the 'over' is 6-1 in Cincinnati's seven games this season. These two old AFC Central rivals are meeting for the first time since 2008, when the Titans cruised past the Bengals, 24-7 as one -point road 'dogs.
Giants at Patriots (-9, 51)
A rematch of one of the greatest finishes in Super Bowl history takes place in Foxboro on Sunday afternoon as New England attempts to rebound against New York. The Patriots lost for the second time this season after getting tripped up at Pittsburgh, 25-17 as short road 'chalk.' The Giants head to Gillette Stadium following a close-shave victory over the winless Dolphins last Sunday, but failed to cover as double-digit favorites.
Tom Coughlin's club is starting a brutal stretch that includes games against the 49ers, Eagles, Saints, Packers, and Cowboys over the next two months. The Giants will have to work on improving their ATS mark against AFC opponents as Big Blue is 1-5-1 ATS the previous seven interconference games. Meanwhile, the Patriots are just 2-4 ATS the last six contests following a loss, including a win at Oakland in Week 4 after getting tripped up at Buffalo.
Packers (-5½, 51) at Chargers
The last unbeaten team in the NFL travels out west seeking an 8-0 start as Green Bay heads to San Diego. The Packers are fresh off the bye week as Mike McCarthy's squad has won 14 straight games dating back to last December. The Chargers come into this matchup off the disappointing overtime setback at Kansas City as three-point road favorites, while Philip Rivers tries to put his late fumble in regulation in the rear-view mirror.
San Diego starts Week 9 in a three-way tie for first place in the AFC West with Kansas City and Oakland, while looking to bounce back from a pair of squandered leads in road losses to the Chiefs and Jets. The Bolts have beaten one team (Chiefs last season) that owned a .500 record or better at the time they played since last December, a span of 12 games. Green Bay owns a strong 6-2 ATS record in the previous eight games away from Lambeau Field, while the two ATS losses came as heavy favorites at Carolina and Minnesota this season.
NFL Week 9
Falcons (4-3) @ Colts (0-8) - Winless Indy failed to cover its last four games, but they've been competitive at home, losing by 8-3-4 points; Colts are 2-5 vs spread as an underdog, 1-1 at home. Indy is 13-1 in this series, with only loss in '98; Falcons are 0-3 in Indy, but haven't been here since '03. Atlanta won last two games (31-17/23-16) after shaky 2-3 start- they allowed 13 sacks in first three games, only five since. AFC South teams are 5-9 vs spread as an underdog in non-divisional games. Atlanta won five of last seven post-bye games, with two wins by more than 7 points- they're 3-2 vs spread in last five games as a post-bye favorite. Four of last five Atlanta games stayed under the total; five of last seven Indianapolis games went over.
Buccaneers (4-3) @ Saints (5-3) - Bucs (+4.5) won first series matchup 26-20 at home three weeks ago, with +4 turnover ratio (4-0), but that was third week in row on road for New Orleans, which had hideous loss last week in St Louis. Bucs won three of last four visits here; only once in their last six visits here has game been decided by more than 4 points. Saints are 3-0 as home favorites this year, winning by 17-7-55 points; home side covered seven of their eight games. Home teams are 4-0 vs spread in NFC South games this year. Bucs covered last five post-bye games, winning last four- they've covered last six games as post-bye dog. Four of last five Buc games stayed under total. Under is 8-2 this year in games involving road teams coming off a bye.
Browns (3-4) @ Texans (5-3) - Wade Phillips' defense is improving; in last two games, Texans allowed 2.9/2.7 yards per pass- they've taken ball away twice in each of last three games. Cleveland lost three of last four games-- win was 6-3 over Seattle; teams split six meetings- average total in Cleveland's three wins was 43.7, in Houston's three 25.7. Browns scored 16 or less points in all three series losses. Texans are 3-1 as home favorites, winning home games by 27-7-10 points, with loss to Oakland. Browns' losses are by 10-18-7-10- they are 0-2 as an underdog this year. AFC South home favorites are 1-4 vs spread in non-divisional games; AFC North underdogs are 5-3. Under is 6-2 in Texan games, 4-1 in last five Cleveland games.
Jets (4-3) @ Bills (5-2) - Jets are 4-0 at home, 0-3 on road, losing by 10-17-9 points, allowing 34-34-30 points, but they've won five of last six series games, winning 38-14/38-7 in LY's matchups- they won 26-17/38-14 in last two trips here. Bills are 3-0 in Orchard Park, winning by 3-3-7, scoring 38-34-31 points against good teams- their only losses are by 3 points each. Road teams coming off bye (2-1 this year) have historically been a good play. Jets are 0-2 in post-bye games under Ryan, after covering seven in row before Rex became coach. Teams are 1-3 the week after playing the Redskins, despite being favored in all four games. Home underdogs are 8-4 vs spread in divisional games this season. Over is 5-2 in Buffalo games, 4-1 in last five Jet games.
Dolphins (0-7) @ Chiefs (4-3) - Three of winless Miami's last five losses are by three points each; they're 2-2 as road underdog this year, 16-7 since 2008. Chiefs won last four games after 0-3 start; they're on short week after Monday night upset of divisional rival San Diego, with another rival (Denver) coming in next. This is first time KC has been favored since season opener; since '07, they are 3-7-1 as home favorites. This is Miami's 5th road game in last seven weeks; they scored 17 or less points in last six games. Last six Dolphin games, four of last five KC games stayed under the total. Teams are 0-4 vs spread week after playing the Giants. AFC East road dogs are 4-2 vs spread in its non-divisional games; AFC West home favorites are 2-3.
49ers (6-1) @ Redskins (3-4) - Niners won/covered last five games; they were +2 or better in turnovers in five of seven games this year. Redskins lost three in row since their bye, outscored 76-33; last week was first time a Shanahan team was shut out. Washington has started nine drives in enemy territory this year, but has only a TD, two FGs to show for it. Teams are 0-6 (2-4 vs spread, 0-1 as favorites) week after playing Cleveland; teams are 4-1 SU (three of five were underdogs) week after playing Buffalo. In last three games, 49ers allowed only three TDs on 35 drives; Redskins scored three TDs on last 32 drives. Five of last six SF games stayed under the total. Winning a game like this, that they're expected to win on road, is a good yardstick of how good 49ers really are.
Seahawks (2-5) @ Cowboys (3-4) - Dallas won last two series games, 34-9/38-17, but they're 4-9 vs spread in last 13 tilts as home favorite, 4-8 in last dozen as double digit favorite. Seattle failed to cover its last six games as a double digit dog. Dallas lost three of last four games, getting whacked by Eagles last week; Favorites are 2-0 vs spread week after playing Philly. Dogs are 4-1 week after playing Cincinnati. Seattle has seven takeaways (+3) in its two wins, three (-6) in its five losses. Four of last five Dallas games stayed under total; three of last four Seattle games went over. NFC East home favorites are 2-6 vs spread as a non-divisional favorite. Seattle covered twice in its last eleven games as double digit dog- they're 1-2-1 as a road dog this year, losing by 16-24-3 points.
Broncos (2-5) @ Raiders (4-3) - Oakland won last four series games, including 23-20 (+3) win in season opener in Mile High City, when they outrushed the Broncos 190-38. Denver has QB no one thinks is good, while Raiders are trying to force feed newly-acquired vet QB Palmer offense so they can win enough to make playoffs. Oakland is 0-9 vs spread in last nine post-bye games. Last four Raider games stayed under total. Broncos have 183-195 rushing yards in two Tebow starts, but averaged only 3.7/2.5 ypa- they have three TDs on 30 drives in his two starts. Underdogs are 4-1 vs spread in AFC West divisional games so far this season. Oakland is 4-3, with only one win by more than 7 points; they are 3-11 vs spread in their last 14 games as a home favorite.
Bengals (5-2) @ Tennessee (4-3) - Cincy won/covered last four games; they've also covered five in row on road- they averaged 39 yards/punt return in 34-12 win at Seattle last week (was 17-12 before late TDs on defense/special teams). Bengals scored a defensive TD in each of last three games; they also have TD drives of 23-26 and two of 52 yards in last three games. Defense is putting the offense in good position to score- they're only NFL team to win battle for field position in every game this season. Over is 3-1 in Titans' last four games, 3-0 in Bengals' last three. Cincy lost six of last seven visits here, with five of last six losses by 7+ points. Tennessee won 10 of last 13 series games, they're 3-2 since they became divisional rivals.
Rams (1-6) @ Cardinals (1-6) - Unsure what to make of Rams' upset win last week, but WR Lloyd has made big difference in passing game since coming over from Denver. Kolb (turf toe) unlikely to start at QB for Arizona; Bradford has bad ankle, but his backup Feeley is a much better option than Redbird backup QB Skelton (played for Fordham Rams in college). Rams got drilled in last three visits here, 48-19/34-10/31-10; they've lost eight of last nine series games, with five of eight losses by 14+ points. St Louis is 13-20 in last 33 tries as road dog, 0-3 this year, losing 28-16/24-3/34-7 on foreign soil. Arizona lost six games in row since winning opener; they're 2-6 as home fave. Rams scored three TDs on 12 drives last week, after scoring five on 67 drives in first six games.
Giants (5-2) @ Patriots (5-2) - Teams' first meeting since Giants' ruined New England's perfect season in Super Bowl four years ago; Big Blue lost two of its three visits here (16-14/17-6) with average total in three games, 25.3. Pats are 20-6 vs spread in game following their last 26 losses- they're 11-7-1 in last 19 games as home favorites. Giants are 4-5 in last nine games as road dogs. Pats are 3-0 at home, winning by 14-9-4 points. Favorites are 0-2 the week after playing the Steelers; dogs are 0-2 the week after playing Miami. First road game in five weeks for Giants, who are 1-2 this season when they don't win turnover battle. AFC East home favorites are 4-2-1 vs spread in non-divisional games. Giants gave up 28-36 points in their two losses; Pats scored 30+ in 4 of 7 games.
Packers (7-0) @ Chargers (4-3) - Green Bay won five in row, eight of nine vs Chargers, with only loss in 1984; they're 5-0 against the Bolts here. Chargers trying to bounce back from hideous OT loss in Knasas City Monday, when a botched center snap cost SD shot at easy win at end of regulation. Packers won 26-0/31-3 in last two post-bye games; they're 5-2 vs spread this year, winning road games by 7-10-11-6 points (2-2 as road fave this year, 12-8 since '07). San Diego is 1-3 this year when it allows 23+ points; Green Bay scored 3+ TDs in six of its seven games. Under is 2-0-1 in San Diego home games; this is the first home game in five weeks for Chargers, who lost last two games. NFC North favorites are 8-6 vs spread in its non-divisional games.
Ravens (6-2) @ Steelers (5-2) - Baltimore (-2.5) pounded rivals 35-7 way back in Week 1, avenging loss in LY's playoffs, but Ravens lost five of last six here and haven't swept Steelers since 2006. Ravens outrushed Pitt 170-66 in opener, but haven't run for more than 113 yards in last four games- they rallied back to nip 1-6 Arizona last week after trailing 24-6 at half, avoiding their second loss in row. Ravens are the dog for first time this year; they're 9-5-2 in last 16 games as road underdog, but they've struggled on road, losing at Titans/Jaguars, with only win at 1-6 St Louis. Steelers are 4-0 at home this year, 2-1 as home fave, winning by average score of 26-12. Underdogs are 4-1 vs spread the week after playing Arizona. Under is 6-0 in games involving teams who played Patriots in their last game.
Bears (4-3) @ Eagles (3-4) - Chicago won three of last four series games, with all four games decided by 5 or less points; seven of last nine in series were won by 6 or less. Bears won four of last six visits here, but last visit here was in '07. Both teams won last two games after shaky starts; Chicago is 0-2 in true road games, losing 30-13 (+7) in Superdome, 24-13 in Detroit. Philly beat couple of divisional rivals after a 1-4 start; they allowed 13 or less points in all three wins 24+ points in all four losses. Chicago scored 24+ points in its wins, 17 or less in its losses. Teams won/covered all five games week after playing Dallas, with four of those five staying under total. All three Chicago road games went under the total. Winner gets back to .500; loser is in deep trouble.
NFL Poolies' Cheat Sheet: Week 9
By Colin Kelly
Covers.com
After two weeks of rather weak matchups, the NFL finally presents several intriguing affairs in Week 9. So on to the poolies cheat sheet we go:
Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys (-11.5)
Why Seahawks cover: Despite 2-5 straight-up mark – which by the way is good for second in NFC Worst, er, West – they’ve gone 3-1-1 against the spread last five. And Dallas averse to favorite’s role, with ATS slides of 2-9-1 overall and 2-7 at home.
Why Cowboys cover: As I’ve noted before, Seattle starts Tarvaris Jackson at QB. If that’s not enough, Dallas 4-0-1 ATS last five off SU loss, and Seabirds paltry on road, with pointspread purges of 15-32-2 overall and 6-20-1 catching points. Pokes have also cashed last five vs. Seahawks.
Total (44): Several signs point to over, with Seattle surges of 14-4 overall and 7-2 on road, and total going high in 10 of Dallas’ last 12 on home turf.
San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) at Washington Redskins
Why 49ers cover: Well, that’s what they do, better than anybody in NFL this season at 6-0-1 ATS. And at 6-1 SU, new coach Jim Harbaugh must have the magic touch – or at least a magic handshake. Niners have covered six straight as chalk, and ‘Skins meager 7-16-2 ATS last 25 at FedEx Field.
Why Redskins cover: Shutouts don't sit well with offensive gurus like Mike Shanahan. Even with a banged up attacking unit, Washington should put up a better offensive performance than last week against Buffalo and that may be enough to cover against San Fran. Niners finished with fewer than 300 total offensive yards against the Browns.
Total (37.5): Over 8-1 49ers’ last nine vs. NFC, but Washington on boatload of under streaks, including 5-1 overall, 5-1 at home, 7-0 against winning squads and 9-3 getting points.
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-1)
Why Jets cover: With game ostensibly a pick ‘em, numbers in this rivalry favor Gang Green -- Jets have won and cashed last three overall and are 4-1 ATS last five trips to Buffalo. Road team 6-1 ATS last seven.
Why Bills cover: QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has an Ivy League pedigree from Harvard, and he’s not nearly as hyped as Southern Cal product Mark Sanchez, but he’s better than the Sanchize. Fitzpatrick sixth in league with 97.8 rating; Sanchez 16th with 83.0 rating.
Total (44): Over has hit in seven of last eight for Bills and 23 of last 31 for Jets.
Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans (-10.5)
Why Browns cover: Not much positive to say on their end, but Houston has struggled coming off SU wins, with 1-6-1 ATS mark last eight in that spot.
Why Texans cover: Have won last two games by double digits, rounding into form as team that should run away with AFC South. And Cleveland on spate of ATS dives, including 1-8-2 overall and 0-6 as a pup.
Total (41): Matt Schaub & Co. on under stretches of 4-1 overall, 4-0 at home, 5-0 as favorite and 10-3 vs. losing teams. Total has gone low in five of Cleveland’s last six on highway.
Atlanta Falcons (-7) at Indianapolis Colts
Why Falcons cover: Coming off bye week after finding groove with back-to-back SU and ATS wins. Michael Turner has rushed for over 100 yards in back to back games and Atlanta’s offense could get a boost if rookie wideout Julio Jones returns from injury. Falcons 7-1 ATS last eight vs. losing squads.
Why Colts cover: Does the “Even a blind squirrel gets nut every now and then” theory come into play? Indy 12-4-2 ATS last 18 vs. winning teams, despite 2-6 overall ATS mark this year.
Total (44): Under the play in four of ATL’s last five, but Indy sports over streaks of 6-1 overall and 6-1 vs. winning units.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-9)
Why Buccaneers cover: Fired up over complete lack of respect as 9-point dog, just three weeks after dumping Saints 26-20 in Tampa getting 6 points. In fact, Bucs have won SU and ATS three of last four in this rivalry, including last two trips to Superdome, and are 7-1 ATS last seven at New Orleans.
Why Saints cover: Revenge factor for aforementioned upset loss last month. Plus, they should be seriously smarting after ringing up 62-7 beatdown against winless Colts two weeks ago, only to follow up with 31-21 loss to previously winless Rams as 13.5-point road chalk last week. Saints 6-1 ATS last seven at home dome.
Total (50): Despite Saints’ high-octane offense, last six in this NFC South rivalry have gone low, with 46 points reached in last month’s meeting the highest amount in that stretch. In NFC South play, under 10-3 Bucs’ last 13 and 6-1 Saints’ last seven.
Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs (-4)
Why Dolphins cover: They’re winless SU, but hey, they’re on one-game spread covering streak, after 0-8-1 ATS dive dating to last season. K.C. also averse to chalk, at 4-12-1 ATS last 17 in that spot.
Why Chiefs cover: They are legitimately hot, winning four in row SU and five consecutive ATS.
Total (40.5): Both teams have sea of under trends, including 6-0 overall for Miami, 16-5 with Fish a road ‘dog, 4-1 overall for Chiefs and 4-1 at home for K.C.
Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders (-9)
Why Broncos cover: They’re among worst in league ATS past few years, so best hope to cash rests with Oakland’s long-standing streak of being lousy after bye week, dropping eight in row ATS.
Why Raiders cover: What does Tim Tebow have in common with your weekly groceries? Both get sacked – and in Tebow’s case, a lot, at 13 times in just two starts. Oakland licking its chops for shot at Tebow. Raiders 8-1 ATS last nine division tilts; Broncos 8-22-2 ATS last 32 in AFC West.
Total (42.5): Denver on over runs of 21-7 overall and 20-7 in division play, while under has hit in four straight for Raiders. But total has gone high last four in this rivalry.
Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans (-3)
Why Bengals cover: Rookie QB Andy Dalton far better than expected this year, but real reason for success lies with stingy Cincy defense, fourth in NFL in allowing just 17.6 ppg. Bengals have cashed four in row overall, five in row on highway and eight straight inside AFC.
Why Titans cover: Not much that’s impressive about Tennessee, but you’ve got to figure that at some point, stud RB Chris Johnson will bust out with Chris Johnson-type game, after netting just 302 yards and 1 TD so far this season (43.1 ypg).
Total (41.5): Despite Bengals’ defense, over on upticks for Cincy of 4-0 overall and 4-0 in roadies.
Green Bay Packers (-5.5) at San Diego Chargers
Why Packers cover: Reigning Super Bowl champs don’t lose at all SU (13-0 tear) and don’t lose much at betting window, cashing 10 of 13 in current streak. And BTW, Pack’s average margin of victory during 13-game streak? 13 points.
Why Chargers cover: If Philip Rivers and Co. have any pride at all, they should not only cash this week, but put first blemish on Green Bay’s SU record. Bolts should be fuming after two consecutive SU and ATS losses in games they gave away – at Jets and at Kansas City. As underdog, San Diego on ATS sprees of 22-7-3 overall and 5-0 at Qualcomm.
Total (51): With two big-armed QBs – Rivers and the Pack’s Aaron Rodgers – you’d think over might look good. But total has gone low 11 of Green Bay’s last 15 on road and seven straight at home for San Diego.
St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-3.5)
Why Rams cover: Have a burst of confidence after shocking Saints 31-21 last week as big 13.5-point home ‘dog, notching first win of year, either SU or ATS. And Steven Jackson got his mojo back in the upset, with 159 rushing yards and 2 TDs. St. Louis 4-1 ATS last five in NFC West; Cards have dropped six straight ATS in division play.
Why Cardinals cover: Nearly pulled off feat similar to Rams last week, falling just short 30-27 catching 12 points at Baltimore. Chalk 6-1 ATS last seven in this rivalry.
Total (41.5): When these two get together, under is order of day – six in a row overall, six of last seven in desert.
New York Giants at New England Patriots (-9)
Why Giants cover: For better or worse, Tom Coughlin’s troops often play to level of opponent – and New England very good opponent, so 9 points is quite a bit to get. New York also solid ATS on road, at 29-13 last 42.
Why Patriots cover: Got popped in mouth last week at Pittsburgh, and Bill Belichick not one to let his team get embarrassed two straight weeks. In fact, Pats a good bounceback bet, with ATS streaks of 6-1 after non-cover and 25-9-1 after SU setback.
Total (50.5): If New England’s playing, watch out for over. Total has cleared price 20 of Pats’ last 26 overall and eight of last nine in Foxborough.
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3)
Why Ravens cover: Already pasted Pittsburgh 35-7 in Week 1 as 1-point home favorite. Baltimore lucked out to get split past two weeks against lightweights Jacksonville and Arizona – losing both ATS. Pittsburgh should get Ravens’ full attention.
Why Steelers cover: Eager to avenge meltdown against archrival in season opener, and they’re coming off big confidence builder in 25-17 win over New England last week as 3-point home pups. Pittsburgh on pair of 6-1 ATS streaks, in AFC North play and in Steel City.
Total (41.5): Baltimore has No. 1 yardage defense (263.3 ypg) and No. 2 scoring defense (15.7 ppg). Pittsburgh has No. 2 yardage defense (270.8 ypg) and No. 3 scoring defense (17.4 ppg). So of course, in this rivalry, over has gone 8-3-1 last dozen overall and 6-1-1 last eight at Heinz Field.
Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles (-9)
Why Bears cover: Giving nine points to team that reached last year’s NFC title game seems a stretch, to be sure. Perhaps overlooked is that these two teams have met each of last four years, and Bears have gone 3-1 SU and ATS, all as a ‘dog. Philly in ATS ruts of 3-7 overall, 4-9 vs. winning teams and 1-5 at home (all as chalk).
Why Eagles cover: Michael Vick-led offense tears it up with league-best 449 ypg – 112 more than Bears’ average – and No. 1 rushing attack at whopping 179.9 ypg, which can chew up some serious clock and limit Bears opportunities. That’s what happened vs. Dallas last week in Philly’s 34-7 rout, with Eagles keeping ball 42 minutes. Andy Reid’s troops have cashed four straight on Monday night.
Total (47): Under 5-1 Eagles’ last six at home and 20-8 Bears’ last 28 on highway.
Total Talk - Week 9
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
Week 8 Recap
After watching the regular season start with a bunch of scoring fireworks, it appears the smoke has cleared and the ‘over’ express is officially, well ‘over.’ The ‘under’ went 9-4 last weekend and you could make a case that it should’ve been 11-2. New Orleans added a late touchdown in its road loss (21-31) to St. Louis to score one ‘over’ and then later in the day, Cincinnati put up 14 bonus points from its defense to during its romp (34-13) over Seattle. To be fair, the Panthers-Vikings could’ve gone ‘over’ if the game goes to overtime and the Titans’ 27-10 home win over the Colts should’ve been closer if Indianapolis managed to convert not one but two opportunities inside the five-yard line. After eight weeks, the ‘over’ still holds a slight edge with a 57-56-3 mark.
Will the ‘under’ come in again? Despite the low-scoring tendencies the last few weeks, only one total is below 40 and yet again, we have three games listed near or in the fifties. Do yourself a favor and check the latest WEATHER REPORTS too.
Second-Half Surge
After losing on the Cincinnati-Seattle ‘under’ ticket last week, I almost kicked myself – again. The total (37.5) was low, justifiably and the score was 17-3 at half. The score was 20-12 with three minutes left and as I mentioned above, a punt return sealed the ‘over’ and the interception return for a touchdown made it look like an easy ticket. I did a little research and found that every Cincinnati game has gone ‘over’ in the second-half this season. In full games, the Bengals have seen the ‘over’ go 5-1-1. This week, the Bengals head to Tennessee and the total is hovering between 41 and 42 points.
Rust Affect
The last few weeks, we’ve been hitting on teams off the BYE and their total outcomes. Prior to Week 8, the ‘under’ went 9-3 in the 12 games with teams playing on rest and the trend happened once again. The ‘under’ went 5-1 last week, pushing the overall number to 14-4 (78%). We have six more teams playing with rest again this week.
Atlanta at Indianapolis: The Colts saw their six-game ‘over’ run come to an end last week, but they had plenty of opportunities. Indy’s defense (31.5 PPG) is ranked last in the league. Atlanta’s offense was starting to roll before its week off, putting up 31 and 25 in wins over the Panthers and Lions.
N.Y. Jets at Buffalo: The Jets have been diced up on the road this season, allowing 30-plus points in all three affairs. Buffalo has also put up 30-plus in its three games from Ralph Wilson Stadium. Last season, the ‘over’ cashed in both meetings but the totals were less 40. This week it’s 44.
Tampa Bay at New Orleans: The Saints and Bucs have watched their last six games go ‘under’ the number. Tampa Bay beat New Orleans 26-20 on Oct. 16 and those following know plenty of points were left off the board. The total on the first meeting was 49 ½ and now it’s a full point (50.5) higher. Saints should get more than 20 but Tampa’s offense is very shaky, especially on the road (13.5 PPG).
Green Bay at San Diego: It’s safe to say that the Packers should get four to six scores on the Chargers, it’s just a matter of you’re looking at touchdowns or field goals. San Diego is impossible to figure out and playing on the short week doesn’t help, but its defense has been better at home (16.7 PPG).
Oakland vs. Denver: This has been an ‘over’ series, including the first meeting in Week 1 when Oakland stopped Denver 23-20 on the road. QB Tim Tebow is expected to start for the Broncos, and Carson Palmer for the Raiders. Despite the pair, the total (42) is similar to the first encounter.
Chicago at Philadelphia: (See Below)
Under the Lights
The two primetime games last week both went ‘under’ the number. Including last week, the ‘under’ has now cashed in four straight on MNF and five of the last six. Through eight weeks, the ‘over’ is 10-7-1 (59%).
Baltimore at Pittsburgh: The Ravens ripped the Steelers 35-7 in Week 1 and the combined 42 points jumped ‘over’ the closing number of 37. Now the total on this week’s game is hovering around 42, which is high for this series. This will be just the second instance in the last 11 meetings where we see a total above 40. The Steelers have seen the ‘under’ go 3-1 at Heinz Field. On the road, Baltimore has seen combined point totals of 39, 44 and 19 this season.
Chicago at Philadelphia: This total (47) seems a little high, considering what the Bears have done on the road. All three of their games have gone ‘under’ due to an offense that is averaging 16.7 PPG outside of Soldier Field. Philadelphia has the weapons to explode on offense any week, evidenced by last week’s 34-spot against Dallas. However, the numbers are high and the Eagles have watched the ‘under’ go 4-3 this weekend. These teams have met every season for the last four years and the total stands at 2-2.
Fearless Predictions
Finally, out of the red and into the black. It took some luck, but going 3-1 got us back $190 and the profits stand at $110 on the season. Hopefully we can keep it going as the second-half of the season begins. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!
Best Over: Atlanta-Indianapolis 45
Best Under: Cincinnati-Tennessee 42
Best Team Total: Under Denver 17.5
Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Over 36 Atlanta-Indianapolis
Under 51 Baltimore-Pittsburgh
Under 46.5 San Francisco-Washington