NFL Betting News and Notes Week 9

Betting Recap - Week 8
By Daniel Dobish
VegasInsider.com

National Football League Week 8 Results

Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 9-2-1
Against the Spread 8-4
Home-Away
Straight Up 7-4-1
Against the Spread 6-6
Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 9-3

The largest underdogs to win straight up

Raiders (+1) at Buccaneers, 30-24 (OT)
Saints (+1) vs. Seahawks, 25-20

The largest favorite to cover

Patriots (-5.5) at Bills, 41-25
Cowboys (-5) vs. Eagles, 29-23 (OT)
Broncos (-3.5) vs. Chargers, 27-19

Falcon Favorites?

The Atlanta Falcons rallied in the closing seconds to top the visiting Green Bay Packers 33-32 in a battle of gunslingers. The win ended a crazy streak, as the Falcons entered 0-7 SU in their past seven games as a favorite. They're still just 8-22-1 ATS in their past 31 as favorites, and an amazing 0-11 ATS over the past 11. They opened as a three-point favorite for their road game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Thursday night in Week 9.

Browns Frowns

The Cleveland Browns fell for the eighth time in eight games this season, dropping a 31-28 decision to the New York Jets. In the stadium affectionately known as the 'Factory of Sadness', but Browns fell to 0-3 SU/ATS at home this season, and they opened as touchdown underdogs to the visiting Dallas Cowboys for Week 9. Overall the Browns are 2-6 ATS, and 1-4 ATS as an underdog in the single digits. Thanks to an alarmingly bad defense, betting the total is the way to go in Cleveland games. The 'over' is 6-1 over the past seven.

Total Recall

The 'over' was back in the majority in Week 8. And how! After the 'under' finally won out in Week 7, it was back to high-scoring football in Week 9 with 'over' results in nine of the first 12 games heading into Monday night. In five games between AFC squads the 'over' went 4-1. In the NFC, the 'over' was 3-1 in four games and another result to come with the Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears still yet to battle. In AFC vs. NFC games, the 'over' ended up 2-1. Through the first seven weeks of NFL action the 'over' is 66-53 (55.5%).

In the five games with the lowest total lines, all five hit the 'over' in Week 8. San Diego-Denver (43), Jacksonville-Tennessee (43.5), Philadelphia-Dallas (44), N.Y. Jets-Cleveland (45.5) and Arizona-Cardinal (45.5) went 'over' the total. For Week 9 there will be a handful of totals in the neighborhood of 43 and 44, and lately that has been a good way to make money on the 'over'.

Two of three games on the schedule with lines over 50 points actually hit the 'under'. The Green Bay-Atlanta (51) game lived up to expectations of a shootout, but Seattle-New Orleans (50) and Kansas City-Indianapolis (50.5) were each about a couple of field goals short of the mark. There will be at least three games with totals of the 50-point threshhold in Week 9, including the Thursday nighter in Tampa.

The 'over' finished 2-0 in two primetime games in Week 8, with the Monday nighter yet to come. Officially, the 'over' is 11-13 (45.8%) through 24 games under the lights. In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games. In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56%) in 2013.

Injury Report

Buccaneers RB Jacquizz Rodgers (foot) was in a walking boot due to a sprained foot after Sunday's overtime loss against the Raiders, and the media in Tampa is reporting it is a good bet Rodgers will be sidelined Thursday. That might be why the team re-signed former back Mike James Monday.

Chiefs QB Alex Smith (head) suffered what was believed to be a concussion in Indianapolis, leaving the field awfully wobbly. He was able to return, but then checked back out again later. While the word from the team is that Smith did not suffer concussion officially, he looked awfully shaky.

Falcons TE Jacob Tamme (shoulder) was knocked out of the shootout against the Packers Sunday, but his injury not believed to be serious. However, he is in jeopardy of missing the Tampa game due to the short week.

Titans RB DeMarco Murray (toe) battled through a toe injury in Thursday's game against Jacksonville, and was sent for an MRI. It appears he'll be able to continue to play, but the situation is worth monitoring.

Looking Ahead

The Falcons head down Interstate 75 to battle the Buccaneers Thursday night. (OK, they're flying.) The Bucs are 3-2 SU at home in the past five meetings against the Falcons, going 3-1-1 ATS. The teams met in Week 1, and Tampa Bay came away with a 31-24 win despite being 2 1/2-point underdogs. QB Jameis Winston is 3-0 SU/ATS as a starter against the Falcons, and the last time the Falcons were victorious in this series was Nov. 9, 2014.

The Steelers and Ravens hook up in Charm City, and usually the visits by Pittsburgh do not end very well. The Steelers have come up empty in their past three trips to Baltimore, last winning in M&T Bank Stadium Nov. 8, 2012. Baltimore swept last season's meetings, and they're 4-1 SU/3-1-1 ATS over the past five overall in this series, while going 8-3 SU/5-4-2 ATS during the span.

The Vikings and Lions renew acquaintances in the Twin Cities Sunday. Overall they're 7-2 ATS in the past nine in this series. The 'under' is 4-1 in the past five meetings overall.

The Jets invade Hard Rock Stadium in South Florida, and lately it has been a home away from home for Gang Green. The Jets have won four straight at Miami dating back to Jan. 1, 2012, and they're 5-1 ATS in their past six visits. The Jets have covered five consecutive meetings in this series.

The Raiders have looked much improved this season, and we'll find out if they're completely back when the Broncos come calling next Sunday night. The Silver and Black have dropped five straight home games against the Broncos dating back to Dec. 19, 2010, and they're 0-5 ATS during the span. Over the past nine in this series the Broncos are 8-1 SU and 7-1-1 ATS, but the Raiders are a much different team than past seasons. Or are they?

Opening Line Report - Week 9
By Marcus DiNitto
VegasInsider.com

Here’s a game-by-game look the early point spreads for the NFL’s Week 9 betting card, with insight from two Las Vegas oddsmakers – CG Technology vice president of risk Jason Simbal and Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook manager Ed Salmons.

The numbers listed are the Las Vegas consensus as of about 11:30 p.m. ET on Sunday, with early line moves and differences among sports books noted.

Thursday , Nov. 3

Atlanta Falcons (-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bucs have won the last three meetings in this series, including at Atlanta in Week 1 this season. That didn’t stop oddsmakers from posting the Falcons as the road favorites and early bettors from laying the points. CG Technology opened Atlanta -2, moved on air from -2.5 minutes later, and then to -3 after taking a bet on the chalk.

“We have a few guys each week who try to hit the early numbers if they think they’re off, and this was one of those guys,” Simbal said of the wager.

Sunday, Nov. 6

Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5)

The Chiefs opened -7.5 at the Westgate and -8 at CG.

While Salmons doesn’t see a big difference between Alex Smith and Nick Foles – the Chiefs “just do what they do,” he said, “it’s not like it’s a complicated offense” – some books will hold off hanging a number on this game until they learn more about Smith’s status. He took a couple shots to the head in Sunday’s game against the Colts.

“The reason we (posted the game) is because we’re in so many Strip properties and there’s a lot of fans that want to bet games like this,” said Simbal. ”So we try to put up our best estimate of a number and let the bets decide if they think he’s going to play or not. We went with 8, which is closer to him playing but not as high as it could be.”

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-6.5)

This line ranged from Minnesota -6 at William Hill U.S. to -7 at CG Technology on Sunday night.

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (-3)

Before Philly took the field in Dallas on Sunday night, CG was dealing the Giants -2.5 for next week’s NFC East showdown, while the Westgate hung -3.

Dallas Cowboys (-7) at Cleveland Browns

The Browns were offered at +6.5 at the Westgate and +7 on Sunday as they look for their first win of the season at home next week against the Cowboys.

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-3.5)

The Westgate and CG both opened Miami -3 (-120) with quick moves to -3.5. Bettors faded the Jets against the Browns last week, moving the line in Las Vegas from New York -4.5 to -2.5, an indication of the market’s lack of confidence in Todd Bowles’ men.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5)

Despite Ben Roethlisberger’s likely absence, public bettors were on the Steelers at CG on Sunday for next week’s AFC North clash in Baltimore. The line stayed put at 2.5, though, since public money early in the week doesn’t influence books to move their numbers. Still, the early action told Simbal something.

“We took a bunch of public money on the Steelers pretty quickly,” he said. “That means, to me, that number is probably about right because if the public is taking the Steelers +2.5, this might be a situation where we actually need a favorite.”

Salmons, meanwhile, is waiting to post a number on this game until he’s sure Roethlisberger will not play. If he starts, the Steelers will be at least 3- or 3.5-point favorites next week, he said.

Simbal and Salmons agree that it’s hard to evaluate Roethlisberger’s replacement, Landry Jones, from the Patriots game two weeks ago – Jones’ lone start of the season – because of the sizable gap between the Pats and the rest of the league.

Simbal recalled the betting pattern of that game, “Most people had Pittsburgh -2 and it closed New England -7, but Roethlisberger’s not really worth 9 points; he’s just worth 9 points against New England. Against a team like Baltimore, he’s worth a lot less.”

New Orleans Saints (-3) at San Francisco 49ers

While laying this short number will entice plenty of public players, they should be aware that the road favorite role has been particularly brutal for the Saints. Since 2013, New Orleans is a bankroll-busting 2-9 ATS when laying points away from home.

Carolina Panthers (-2.5) at Los Angeles Rams

Carolina was bet from -2.5 to -3 at multiple shops on Sunday, but the +3s didn’t last long for Rams bettors, as the line settled back at 2.5.

Indianapolis Colts at Green Bay Packers (-7)

Despite a multitude of injuries for the Packers, CG took a few early Green Bay bets on Sunday. Not enough, though, for the book to move off -6.5.

“You don’t really want to go to 7 because of (the injuries) and give sharp guys the +7,” Simbal said. “If there are so many injuries, the public may not want to lay the 7, so it can put you in a bad spot. We’ll probably have to sit tight here and see what happens.”

Most shops were dealing 7, however.

Salmons said he can see this line going as low as Green Bay -4.5, depending on how many significant players can’t go, but he believes the Packers have bigger problems than the immediate health of their roster.

“It looks like a team that got old really fast,” Salmons said. “You can see it. They just have zero team speed, bottom line.”

The good news is they’re playing the Colts next week.

“The Colts are just so wretched,” Salmons said. “(The Colts and Packers are) two teams going in a downhill direction. Green Bay at least has a pulse. You watch this (Colts) team every week and you say to yourself, ‘how can this guy (Chuck Pagano) still be coaching this team?’”

Tennessee Titans at San Diego Chargers (-5)

Speaking of wretched, San Diego is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 opportunities as a favorite. That didn’t stop bettors from laying the Chargers from -4.5 up to -5 at some spots in Vegas. As of this writing, the line ranged from 4.5 to 5.5.

Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders (pick ‘em)

While most books have this game a pick ‘em, the Westgate was dealing Denver -1 on Sunday. Salmons isn’t all that high on the 5-2 Raiders.

“They keep getting miracle wins against these really bad teams,” he said. “… I expect them to lose to Denver next week.”

Monday, Nov. 6

Buffalo Bills at Seattle Seahawks (-7)

CG opened Seattle -6 and was bet to -6.5 by wiseguys who may have been trying to get ahead of the public money that’s sure to come.

“I don’t know how much of (the early wagering on Seattle) is realizing how horrible Buffalo looked and that on a Monday night all the fans will bet the Seahawks.”

Simbal seemed to welcome the action on the favorite.

“This is the type of game where the Bills should be able to hang,” he said. “You saw it (Sunday vs. the Patriots). Their offense is actually decent. They just had stupid penalties, which Seattle tends to have as well. They just couldn’t stop Brady. But Seattle’s offense is very uninspiring.”

Salmons added of the Seahawks, “Their offense is playing so bad. I don’t know what their answer is on offense. You keep saying to yourself, one of these weeks they’re going to wake up and be Seattle, but I’m not so sure Seattle’s not heading in the same direction as Green Bay.”

NFL Week 9

Jaguars (2-5) @ Chiefs (5-2) — Jax coach Bradley still has job, despite being outscored 47-6 in first half of last two games. QB coach Hackett was promoted to OC this week; old OC was canned in large part due to QB’s poor play. Go figure. Jags are 1-2 in true road games, losing 38-14 in San Diego, 36-22 in Nashville- they won in Chicago, rallying from down 13-0 in 4th quarter. Chiefs are 3-0 since their bye, winning by 16-6-16 points; they’re 1-2 as home favorite, winning at home by 6-21-6 points. QB Foles gets first start for Chiefs here. KC won last two series games, by 22-26 points, but last meeting was in 2013. Teams split four meetings here. AFC West non-divisional favorites are 6-4 vs spread, 4-4 at home. AFC South underdogs are 4-7, 3-4 on road. Five of Chiefs’ last six games stayed under the total.

Lions (4-4) @ Vikings (5-2) — Nikes’ OC Norv Turner quit Wednesday morning; former Browns’ HC Shurmur takes over. Minnesota was +11 in turnovers during its 5-0 start, but they’ve lost last two games, scoring only two TDs on 20 drives (even in TOs). Bradford was sacked 11 times in last two games (only 5 times in first five), Vikings are 3-0 at home, winning by 3-14-18 points (3-0 as home favorite). Detroit is 1-3 on road this year, losing last three away games by 7-3-7 points; they’re 2-1 as road underdogs this year; since 2010, Lions are 9-15 as road dogs. All eight Detroit games have been decided by 7 or less points. Minnesota is 5-3 in last eight series games, winning both meetings by 10 points LY. Lions are 2-15 in last 17 visits here, 2-3 in last five after an 0-12 drought. Home teams are 3-1 in NFC North games this year (HF 1-1). Under is 5-1 in Minnesota games this season.

Eagles (4-3) @ Giants (4-3) — Philly scored 10 TDs on 33 drives during their 3-0 start; they’ve scored 5 TDs on 40 drives in 1-3 skid since, losing last three road games by 1-7-6ot points. Giants are 2-1 at home, with three games decided by total of 9 nine points- they’ve run ball for only 39 yds/game in last three games, but outscored last three opponents 37-19 in second half. Iggles are 13-3 in last 16 series games, winning last four, three by 8+ points. Eagles won last three visits here, by 15-8-5 points, scoring 35 pts/game. NFL-wide, home favorites are 9-12-1 vs spread in divisional games; they’re 1-3 in NFC East games. Giants are 5-3 vs spread as favorites in post-bye games- they lost 40-24/20-14 in last two. Three of last four Philly games went over total; three of Giants’ last four stayed under.

Cowboys (6-1) @ Browns (0-8 ) — Trap game for Dallas after OT win over rival Eagles last week; Cowboys are 3-0 on road this year, winning by 4-7-14 points. Pokes ran ball for 180+ yards in each of last five games, but are 7-25 on 3rd down in last two. Browns allowed 193 rushing yds/game the last three weeks; they are 1-1-1 as home underdogs, losing home games by 5-20-3 points- they led Ravens/Jets at halftime at home. Addition of former Pats’ LB Collins raises Cleveland talent level; they need more players like him. Dallas won last three series games, by 7-18-3 points; they won 28-10 in last visits here, in ’08. Since 2014, Cowboys are 6-1 as road favorites (1-0 this year). NFL-wide, non-divisional home dogs are 11-11 vs spread. Over is 6-1 in Browns’ last seven games, 1-3 in last four Dallas games.

Jets (3-5) @ Dolphins (3-4) — Miami showed life before its bye with home upsets of Steelers, Bills; Dolphins are 3-1 at home, with loss to Titans- dogs covered all four of their home games. Over last 9 years, Fish are woeful 11-28 vs spread as home favorites. Jets are 2-3 on road, 1-2-1 as road dogs, with losses by 21-18-25 on foreign soil. Gang Green is 9-13-3 in last 25 games as a road dog. Home side lost six of last seven series games; Jets won four of last five, with all four wins by 13+ points- they won last three visits to Miami by 3-13-13 points. This is only 2nd time Miami is favored in its last 12 post-bye games- they’re 6-12 in last 18 SU. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 9-11-1 vs spread. Under is 3-1 in Jets’ last four games, 2-4 in Miami’s last six games.

Steelers (4-3) @ Ravens (3-4) — Both teams are coming off a bye; Steelers lost 35-32/39-30 in last two post-bye games, Baltimore is 11-3 in its last 14 post-bye games. Seven of last ten series games were decided by 3 or less points. This is actually a battle for first place in AFC North. Big Ben is expected back at QB for Steelers; hard to believe he would be 100% already. Pitt lost last two games before its bye, scoring 15-16 points, with Jones playing QB last game. Baltimore lost its last four games after a 3-0 start; they have 3 offensive TDs on 35 drives in last three games- changing OC’s has not helped. Ravens won five of last six series games; Pitt lost last three visits here, by 2-20-3 points. Five of last six Steeler games stayed under; under is 4-3 in Raven games.

Saints (3-4) @ 49ers (1-6) — New Orleans rallied to win three of last four games after 0-3 start; this is trap game coming off Seattle upset, vs 49er squad that lost its last six games but is off their bye week. NO is 1-2 on road, with three games decided by total of 10 points. Kelly was 1-2 in post-bye games with Eagles; 49ers scored 11.7 pts/game in losing last three post-bye games, by 1-3-16 points. Niners won three of last four series games; four of last five in series were decided by 4 or less points. Saints are 3-2 in last five visits here, but last one was in 2011. In last five games, Saints are 44-76 on 3rd down; in their last two games they’ve run 37 more plays than their opponents. Niners were outscored 81-20 in second half of their last four games. Five of 49ers’ last six games went over total.

Panthers (2-5) @ Rams (3-4) — Panthers beat Arizona 30-20 LW, ending 4-game skid; curious if Newton’s whining about late hits on him has any impact with refs here. Carolina is 0-3 on road, allowing 36.7 pts/game- they were favored in all three games, are 5-12 in last 17 games as a road favorite. Rams lost last three games before their bye, all games that were tied in second half. LA is 3-0 when it gets 2+ takeaways, 0-4 when it does not. Rams are 7-2 vs spread in last nine post-bye games, 3-1 under Fisher; unsure if rookie QB Goff will see time here- he is taking more reps in practice. Carolina won five of last six series games; they were 6-4 vs Rams in St Louis. Over is 5-2 in Carolina games this year. This is only 3rd home game for Rams, who scored one offensive TD on 20 drives in splitting their first two.

Colts (3-5) @ Packers (4-3) — Underdogs are 5-1-1 vs spread in Green Bay games this year; Packers are 3-1 SU at home, with home wins by 7-7-16 points- they’re 5-6-1 in last 12 games as a home favorite. Colts are 2-3 in their non-divisional games, losing by 4-14-16 points; they’re 7-4-1 in last 12 games as a road underdog. Indy has only three takeaways in its last five games (-1)- they’re 16-49 on 3rd down in last four games. Packers are 49-95 on 3rd down for season. Hard to stop Rodgers if you don’t turn him over (7 TO’s/3 losses)- they score 28.4 pts/game when they turn ball over less than 3 times (4-1). Home side won last six series games, with average total in last five series games, 62. Colts lost last three visits here by 4-2-20 points; their last win here was in 1988. Over is 6-2 in Indy games this year, 1-3 in last four Packer games.

Titans (4-4) @ Chargers (3-5) — Titans fired Ken Whisenhunt (3-20) as their coach before halfway point of LY; he is now San Diego’s OC. If he is human, this game means little more to him than it usually would. San Diego won nine of last ten series games, last of which was in 2013. Tennessee lost last six visits here, with five of six by 8+ points- their last win here was in 1990. Titans had three extra days to prep after Thursday night win LW; they’re 2-1 as road dog this year, 11-18 in last 29 such games. San Diego is 11-16 in last 27 games as a home favorite, 1-1 this year; Bolts are 10-7 vs spread in last 17 non-divisional home games. AFC South non-divisional underdogs are 4-7 vs spread, 3-4 on road. AFC West favorites are 6-4, 4-4 at home. Over is 6-2 in Charger games, 5-0 in last five Titan tilts.

Broncos (6-2) @ Raiders (6-2) — Denver defense continues to be dominant; in last two games, they allowed only two TDs on 25 drives, while scoring one of their own- they had 11 takeaways in last five games (+5). Raiders scored 28+ points in six of eight games; they allowed 11.1/9.3 yds/pass attempt in their two losses. Not sure Denver QB Siemian is up achieving to those numbers. Broncos are 7-1-2 under Kubiak in games with spread of 3 or less points; Raiders are 4-1 in those games this year, after being 4-15 in previous 19. Oakland is 5-0 at home, 1-2 at home; this game is for top spot in AFC West. Denver won eight of last nine series games; Raiders won 15-12 in Denver LY. Broncos won last five visits here, with four wins by 13+ points. NFL-wide, home teams are 19-14-1 vs spread in divisional games this season.

Bills (4-4) @ Seahawks (4-2-1) — Bills are 2-14 in game before their last 16 byes (5-4 vs spread as an underdog); they’re 4-1 this year when allowing less than 20 points, 0-3 when giving up 20+- they allowed 28-41 points in losses to Dolphins/Patriots last two weeks. Seahawks’ offense is struggling, with one offensive TD on 20 drives in last two games. Wilson is a great QB when he is mobile; he is playing hurt now, had 3 rushes for 11 yards in Superdome LW. Seattle is 23-13 in last 36 games as a home favorite, 1-2 this year; they’re 7-5 in this series, hammering Bills 50-17 in last meeting, which was in Toronto four years ago. AFC East non-divisional road underdogs are 2-5 vs spread. NFC West favorites are 3-5, 2-3 at home. Six of last seven Bills games went over total; under is 4-3 in Seattle games.

Armadillosports.com

Vegas Money Moves - Week 9
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

The Las Vegas sports books don't have to worry about the public cash cow this week with the Patriots having a bye. However, large amounts of small money has turned its attention to a few other teams beginning with the Cowboys (-7) at winless Cleveland as Dallas rides a six-game win and cover streak. Fortunately for the books, they've gotten some help to help balance things out.

"We've got three games where we have a sharp and square divide," said South Point sports book director Chris Andrews. "Sharps like the Jaguars, Browns and 49ers while the masses are on the Chiefs, Cowboys and Saints."

The line movement on the Saints might not suggest sharp play, but Andrews has been working that game hard since the beginning of the week.

"I opened the Saints -3.5 early in the week when most books were at -3 and we took a big bet on the 49ers, and since then its been all Saints money that's forced us to move higher, but when I got to -4.5 we immediately saw more 49ers action. We're in real good shape in the game, I like where we're sitting. I wish all the games looked like that."

Kansas City is without starting QB Alex Smith and back-up Nick Foles takes over. The Chiefs opened as 9-point home favorites against Jacksonville but it's down to -7 as of Friday afternoon. Cleveland getting +7.5 at home was the attractive number against sharps took against Dallas.

"We got another one of those games with sharps liking the Bills (Monday night) at Seattle where we've seen sharp Bills play, but I think by game time that the public money is going to overpower what we have early on the Bills."

Translation: If you like Buffalo getting maximum points possible, wait closer to kickoff on Monday. Most books are currently showing Seattle -7 (EV) with the South Point showing -6.5 because they're the only book in town that uses exclusively flat numbers.

"Two of the games the public are real strong on are the Panthers and Packers and there's been no resistance from the wise-guys," Andrews said.

The Packers are 7-point home favorites against the Colts at the South Point with most other book either showing -7.5 (EV) or -7 (-120).

The Panthers have the same type of deal at Los Angeles laying 3 (-120) or -3.5 (EV). Carolina ended a four game losing streak last week against Arizona while the Rams come off a bye riding a three game losing streak. "The Rams are one of those teams that look real good at times, but in other spots they look awful," said Andrews.

"Then we have a couple games where the public is split on with good way action, but the sharps like one side -- the Raiders and Eagles."

Denver has gone 8-1-1 ATS against the Raiders over the past five seasons, but Oakland won the last meeting and both are tied atop the AFC West. Oakland is as high as -1.5 at a few books. Sharps liked the +3 with the Eagles at the Giants and it's a steady -2.5 everywhere.

Another big concern Andrews and the other books have to deal with this week that wasn't prominent last week because of low point spreads is teaser risk where he's already heavy on the Chiefs, Cowboys, Packers and Seahawks combination.

Pick Six - Week 9
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

Week 8 Record: 3-3 SU, 4-2 ATS
Overall Record: 24-24 SU, 21-26-1 ATS

Review: The Patriots and Panthers cruised to victories as a favorite, while the Packers cashed as a road underdog in Atlanta. Both Seattle and San Diego fell apart in road losses.

Lions at Vikings (-6, 41)

Detroit
Record: 4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS, 4-4 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 160/1

The Lions saw their three-game winning streak disappear in last Sunday’s 20-13 setback at Houston as Detroit was held to its lowest point total of the season. Detroit’s defense did its job by allowing 270 yards to Houston, but a pair of second quarter touchdowns by the Texans were enough to send the Lions back to .500. The Lions fell to 1-3 away from Ford Field, as Detroit has lost eight of the last 10 meetings in Minnesota, including a 26-16 setback last September.

Minnesota
Record: 5-2 SU, 5-2 ATS, 5-2 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 15/1

It’s been a tumultuous run for the Vikings since a 5-0 start as Minnesota’s offense has posted 20 points in two road losses at Philadelphia and Chicago. Norv Turner is out as offensive coordinator as the Vikings try to get back in the win column at U.S. Bank Stadium, where they haven’t lost in three contests this season. Minnesota’s defense continues to step up by allowing 21 points or less in all seven games this season, while finishing UNDER the total in five of the past six. Points come at a premium between these teams as the UNDER has hit in four of the previous five meetings.

Best Bet: Minnesota -6

Eagles at Giants (-2½, 43)

Philadelphia
Record: 4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS, 4-3 OVER

Super Bowl Odds: 40/1

The Eagles flew out of the chute with a perfect 3-0 record, but Philadelphia has been grounded recently by losing three of its past four games. The most disappointing defeat of them all came last Sunday night in a 29-23 setback at Dallas in overtime as Philadelphia couldn’t hold onto a 10-point second half lead. The Eagles have dropped three straight games away from Lincoln Financial Field while rookie quarterback Carson Wentz has thrown for over 300 yards only once this season. The good news for Philadelphia is the Eagles have owned the Giants recently by winning four straight meetings since 2014.

New York
Record: 4-3 SU, 3-3-1 ATS, 5-2 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 38/1

The Giants have gone through an up and down first seven games, starting 2-0, then losing three, following by back-to-back wins over the Ravens and Rams. New York is fresh off the bye week following a 17-10 victory in London over Los Angeles as the Giants erased an early 10-0 deficit to cash as 2½-point favorites. In the last four losses to the Eagles, the Giants have allowed 35, 27, 34, and 27 points, while New York has lost four of the past five home matchups with Philadelphia.

Best Bet: New York -2½

Cowboys (-7, 48½) at Browns

Dallas
Record: 6-1 SU, 6-1 ATS, 4-3 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 10/1

The Cowboys started the season with a one-point loss to the Giants, but Dallas has rolled to six consecutive victories and covers. Rookie Dak Prescott posted his second-worst quarterback rating of the season in last Sunday’s 29-23 victory over the Eagles, but he connected on a game-winning touchdown pass to Jason Witten in overtime. Dallas is unbeaten in three road contests, while being listed at its highest favorite price of the season regardless of venue. The Cowboys have won five straight as a favorite against AFC opponents, while posting a 3-2 ATS record in this span.

Cleveland
Record: 0-8 SU, 2-6 ATS, 6-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 9999/1

There has been plenty of heartbreak recently with Cleveland’s sports teams after the Indians blew a 3-1 lead in their World Series defeat to the Cubs. The Browns haven’t had much luck either as they try to win their first game since Week 14 of last season as Cleveland is the only winless team in the league. Cody Kessler will start at quarterback for the Browns after missing last week’s loss to the Jets with a concussion. The former USC standout can only do so much as the Cleveland defense has been shredded this season by allowing an average of 421.5 yards per game and nearly 30 points per game.

Best Bet: Dallas -7

Saints (-4, 52½) at 49ers

New Orleans
Record: 3-4 SU, 5-2 ATS, 4-3 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 125/1

The Saints have come back to life following an 0-3 start by winning three of their last four games. New Orleans has taken advantage of playing in the underdog role recently by knocking off Carolina and Seattle at home, capped off by last week’s 25-20 victory over the Seahawks. Now, the Saints are listed in the favorite role for the third time this season as Sean Payton’s team hasn’t won when laying points this season by going 0-2 SU/ATS. Since 2014, New Orleans has covered just three times in 14 opportunities as a favorite, while going 1-2 SU/ATS in this span as a road favorite.

San Francisco
Record: 1-6 SU, 1-6 ATS, 5-2 OVER

Super Bowl Odds: 8500/1

The Browns own the worst record in the NFL, but the 49ers haven’t been competitive in most of their defeats during a six-game losing streak. San Francisco blanked Los Angeles in the season opener, but the Niners have slipped up recently by dropping five games by double-digits, while scoring 18 points or less five times during this cold streak. Chip Kelly’s squad hasn’t covered a game since Week 1, as the Niners are riding a two-game home OVER streak following a 9-1 stretch to the UNDER at Levi’s Stadium dating back to Week 1 of the 2015 season.

Best Bet: San Francisco +4

Panthers (-3, 44½) at Rams

Carolina
Record: 2-5 SU, 2-5 ATS, 5-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 50/1

The defending NFC champions have yet to win a game away from Bank of America Stadium this season, sitting at 0-3 SU/ATS on the road. Carolina snapped a four-game losing streak in last Sunday’s 30-20 home triumph over Arizona in an NFC title game rematch as Jonathan Stewart rushed for a pair of touchdowns. Two of Carolina’s three road defeats have come by three points or less, while the Panthers have failed to cover in each of their past six opportunities as an away favorite. The Panthers are playing their first ever game in Los Angeles as the Rams moved to St. Louis the same year (1995) Carolina entered the NFL.

Los Angeles
Record: 3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS, 4-3 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 150/1

The Rams were a September surprise by winning three of their first four games, but L.A. has spun out of control recently by losing three straight contests. Quarterback Case Keenum was intercepted four times in the Rams’ London loss to the Giants two weeks ago in spite of Los Angeles holding New York to 232 yards of offense. The Rams have split a pair of games at the L.A. Coliseum, both in the underdog role by beating the Seahawks and losing to the Bills. Running back Todd Gurley has yet to rush for 100 yards in a game this season, while scoring just one touchdown at home.

Best Bet: Los Angeles +3

Colts at Packers (-7, 54½)

Indianapolis
Record: 3-5 SU, 3-4-1 ATS, 6-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 80/1

The Colts have lost consecutive games only once this season, as Indianapolis has alternated wins and losses in each of their last seven contests. The offense produced only 14 points in last Sunday’s 30-14 home setback to the Chiefs as three-point underdogs, while Kansas City put up 334 yards through the air. The Colts have lost three of four games away from Lucas Oil Stadium this season, while all four road contests have sailed OVER the total. Indianapolis knocked off Green Bay in its last matchup back in 2012 with a 30-27 victory as 6 ½-point home underdogs.

Green Bay
Record: 4-3 SU, 4-2-1 ATS, 4-3 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 12/1

Thanks to Minnesota’s recent struggles, Green Bay is well within first place in the NFC North by sitting one game out heading into Week 9. The Packers didn’t help themselves last Sunday by dropping a 33-32 decision at Atlanta, but Green Bay cashed as three-point road underdogs. Green Bay’s biggest problem this season has been their offense drying up in the second half as the Pack mustered only eight points after halftime in Atlanta. The Packers have won three of four contests at Lambeau Field this season, while each of the last three home games have finished UNDER the total.

Best Bet: Indianapolis +7

Total Talk - Week 9
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com

You can’t spell overtime without ‘over’ – right? Three games saw an extra session last weekend and not surprisingly, all three went ‘over’ their totals and that helped the high side go 9-4 in Week 8. The scoreboard operator was consistently busy in Week 8 as every team posted at least 10 points and only four were held below 20. Through eight weeks of the regular season, the ‘over’ has gone 64-55-1 (54%).

Divisional Action

We’ve got five divisional games on Sunday and when you check out the latest standings you can see that all of these matchups have high stakes. Outside of the Vikings-Lions number, the point-spread on the other four games is less than a field goal and the totals are hovering between 41 and 44 points.

Detroit at Minnesota: From what we’ve seen in the first-half of the season, the NFC North has turned into a low-scoring division with the ‘under’ going 4-1 in the first five divisional games. The oddsmakers are expecting another ugly affair with a total of 41, the lowest on the board. Four of the last five in this series have gone ‘under’ but Minnesota scored 26 and 28 points in the two meetings last season. The Vikings remain a solid ‘under’ bet (5-2) and the Lions enter this contest with two straight ‘under’ tickets due to an offense that has scored 20 and 13 in their last games.

Philadelphia at N.Y. Giants: When Chip Kelly was coaching the Eagles, these teams had totals ranging from 49 to 54 and Philadelphia averaged 27.6 PPG in those games. Now that Kelly is gone, we’re staring at a total of 43 this Sunday. Why? The offense in Philadelphia has simmered but the bigger factor is the Eagles scoring defense (16.7), which has improved by more than 10 points. Meanwhile, the Giants offense (19 PPG) remains a complete mystery and their inconsistent production has led to a 5-2 ‘under’ record. Despite those statistics, Philadelphia has seen the ‘over’ go 3-1 on the road and it’s 2-0 to the ‘over’ in divisional games.

N.Y. Jets at Miami: The ‘under’ has cashed in seven of the last 10 encounters in this series but the ‘over’ is 2-1 in the last three and those results were helped by the Jets, who posted 38, 27 and 37 points. New York has posted 55 points in its last two games but only managed 36 in their four previous outings. Coincidentally, Miami has looked sharp offensively in its last two games (58 points) as well but are those numbers misleading? The Dolphins are ranked 18th in total offense, 17th in scoring and most importantly, second to last in third-down conversions. The Jets defense isn’t as good as previous seasons and the Dolphins have a mediocre unit as well. Miami has watched the ‘over’ go 3-1 at home this season while New York has leaned ‘under’ (3-2) on the road.

Pittsburgh at Baltimore: Tough total to handicap due to the injury situation for Pittsburgh, in particular the status of QB Ben Roethlisberger (questionable). The Steelers scored 15 points when he first got hurt at Miami in Week 6 and just 16 in his absence at home versus New England two weeks ago. Both teams enter this game with rest and for what it’s worth, Pittsburgh has allowed 39 and 35 the last two seasons off the bye and Baltimore has averaged 31 PPG in its last eight games after a bye. The ‘under’ went 2-0 in last year’s regular season meetings.

Fifty Something

Based on our closing consensus numbers, we’ve seen 15 games this season close with a total listed at 50 or higher and the ‘under’ owns a slight 8-7 edge. There are two matchups in Week 9 that have numbers in this neighborhood and they both take place in the late session on Sunday.

New Orleans at San Francisco (52½): All of the totals for the Saints have closed in the fifties this season and the ‘over’ has gone 4-3 in those games but two of the ‘under’ tickets took place on the road. San Francisco’s scoring defense is horrendous (31.3 PPG) and this unit actually posted a shutout in Week 1.

Indianapolis at Green Bay (54½): This number clearly based on the weak Colts defense (402.5 YPG, 28.8 PPG) because Green Bay’s offense has been very sluggish this season. However, the unit has averaged 30 PPG after its two setbacks this season and they just lost at Atlanta last Sunday. Indy has gone 6-2 to the ‘over’ this season but the ‘under’ tickets came when they total was listed above 50.

Coast-to-Coast

The purpose of this piece and other columns on VI is to inform, entertain and hopefully point you in the right direction to win your wager/s. For those following and playing the “West Coast” total angle this season, congrats! After watching Arizona-Carolina and Oakland-Tampa Bay go ‘over’ their numbers last week, the high side is now 10-0 when a West Coast team plays in the Eastern Time Zone. If you include the records from last season, the ‘over’ is 21-5 (81%) in this situation.

There aren’t any pending matchups in Week 9 but we do have two East Coast clubs playing in the Pacific Time Zone.

Carolina at Los Angeles
Buffalo at Seattle

As noted last week, the ‘over’ has gone 4-3 in these situations with all three ‘under’ tickets taking place in Arizona.

Under the Lights

Atlanta and Tampa Bay combined for 71 points this past Thursday and the ‘over’ (49½), which was steamed down from 51½, easily connected. That’s two straight Favorite-Over tickets on the midweek game and something to keep an eye on. Including that result, the ‘under’ has gone 14-10-1 (58%) in primetime games.

Denver at Oakland: First place in the AFC West will be on the line Sunday as the Broncos and Raiders enter with identical 6-2 records. If you believe Oakland’s offense vs. Denver’s defense is a wash, then handicapping this total comes down to the other two units. While Denver isn’t a juggernaut (24.2 PPG) offensively, Oakland’s defense (410 YPG, 25.4 PPG) can’t stop anybody consistently. Based on what we’ve seen from the Raiders, their offense has struggled against quality defensive units in the Titans and (17) and Chiefs (10). Denver is still a little banged up but the total (44) makes you believe that a shootout doesn’t seem likely on Sunday night. The ‘under’ went 2-0 last season and Oakland hasn’t scored more than 17 points in its last six meetings against Denver.

Buffalo at Seattle: The Bills have seen the ‘over’ cash in four straight and six of their eight games this season, which is a little surprising considering Buffalo coach Rex Ryan would likely to prefer mucking it up. Seattle’s offense is struggling this season and it’s been settling for field goals (14) instead of touchdowns (12). QB Russell Wilson said he’s finally healthy and it should be noted that Seattle has gone 9-0 at home versus AFC foes since he arrived while posting 28.2 PPG. The ‘under’ has gone 6-2-1 on MNF this season and that includes five straight tickets to the low side.

Fearless Predictions

After managing to stay in the black for seven weeks, the pendulum finally swung the other way in Week 8 and we posted the bagel ($430). I could provide reasons for the losses but those are often looked at as excuses in the betting world. We’re down 20 cents ($20) on the season as we approach the midway point. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Dallas-Cleveland 49

Best Under: N.Y. Jets-Miami 44

Best Team Total: Under 26½ Kansas City

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Dallas-Cleveland Over 40
Detroit-Minnesota Under 48½
New Orleans-San Francisco Under 61½

NFL: Streak, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

Indianapolis Colts at Green Bay Packers

The Indianapolis Colts may be headed for the glue factory. They're in third place in the AFC South at 3-5 SU and 3-4-1 ATS, saddled with one of the worst defenses in football – and a former Pro Bowl quarterback who's performing like a league-average quarterback. Andrew Luck and the Colts are 7-point road dogs at press time for Sunday's game against Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers (4-3 SU, 4-2-1 ATS), kicking off at 4:25 PM ET on CBS.

There's been a lot of talk this year on how Rodgers hasn't been playing like his usual Pro-Bowl self, but Luck largely managed to avoid criticism, up until last week's 30-14 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs (–3 away). Luck was 19-of-35 for 210 yards, connecting on just one of seven deep throws, and he got sacked six times behind an offensive line that's been much better at run blocking than pass protection.

The Packers’ defensive line, meanwhile, has been tremendous at stuffing both the run and the pass. As for Rodgers, he's only been sacked 14 times through Week 8, and the Colts’ front seven might not add to that total on Sunday.

Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders

The eyes of most NFL fans as well as those with a penchant for sports gaming with be on the prime-time AFC West Sunday night showdown between Oakland Raiders (6-2, 5-3 ATS) and defending Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos (6-2 SU/ATS). According to opening odds at Sports Interaction the Raiders were -1.5 point home favorite but the number has inched up to -2.0. after Aqib Talib was announced OUT for the Broncos.

Raiders guided by QB Derek Carr tossing 2321 yards, 17 TD, 3 Int and RB Latavious Murray grinding out 279 rushing yards, 5 TD sport the leagues 6th best scoring offense (26.9) but their 22nd-ranked defense (25.4) is a work in progess. The Broncos behind QB Trevor Siemian chucking 8 TD, 4 Int on 1487 yards are racking up 24.2 points/game but unlike Raiders the Broncos have a top notch 5th-ranked scoring defense allowing a lowly 17.0 points/game.

Raiders with their frenzied home crowd behind them along with top spot in the AFC West up for grabs will certainly be out to prove they belong in the AFC West race. However, trusting this undicipllined Raider squad (86 penalties, 728 YDS) can be costly. Raiders have yet to cover this season in front of the home audience (0-3 ATS), have failed to cash in seven consecutive (0-7 ATS) at the Coliseum. Even more eye-opening, Raiders, haven't been a peg to hang your hopes as faves. The last nine times laying points, the result has been 2 cashed tickets, 7 tossed in the trash can.

Add the fact Raiders have struggled at home against the betting facing Broncos going 0-5 ATS recently, 1-7 ATS last eight the numbers point towards Broncos who enter a sparkling 10-1 ATS on the road vs a division opponent.

Week 9 Betting Preview
By Covers.com

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-1, 44)

Landry Jones struggled in a 27-16 loss to the Patriots, finishing 29 of 47 for 281 yards with one touchdown and one interception. Roethlisberger threw for at least three scoring passes in four of his first five starts and had nine TDs and zero picks in back-to-back wins over Kansas City and the New York Jets before he was hurt in a loss at Miami. Whoever starts at quarterback has the luxury of throwing to elite wideout Antonio Brown, who has 48 catches for 592 yards and five scores. Running back Le'Veon Bell has been outstanding since returning from his three-game suspension, leading the league with 147.2 yards from scrimmage per game.

Quarterback Joe Flacco has struggled during the four-game skid with two touchdowns and a pair of interceptions, and has only five scoring passes versus six picks on the season. "He’s still a guy that’s capable of hurting you in a lot of ways," Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin said. "His deep ball is exceptional. His short game, he’s getting it out as quick as he ever has. His pinpoint accuracy in small spaces in the short game is exceptional.” Wideout Steve Smith returned to practice on a limited basis Thursday for the first time since injuring his ankle on Oct. 9. Baltimore managed 11 yards rushing in a Week 7 loss at the Jets.

LINE HISTORY: The Ravens opened his AFC North tilt as 2.5 favorites and that number has dropped to 1 with rumours Roethlisberger could return. The total opened at 43 and been driven up a full point to 44. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Steelers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a double-digit loss at home.
* Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.
* Ravens are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. AFC North.
* Under is 8-1-1 in Steelers last 10 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
* Under is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings.

Dallas Cowboys at Cleveland (7.5, 48.5)

Prescott is one victory shy from becoming the third rookie quarterback in the Super Bowl era to win seven straight starts (Ben Roethlisberger, 13 in a row in 2004; Kyle Orton, eight consecutive in 2005). A healthy dose of Dez Bryant helped Prescott's cause last week, as the explosive star had 113 receiving yards and a touchdown versus the Eagles in his first game since sustaining a tibial plateau fracture in his right leg on Sept. 25. Fellow wideout Cole Beasley was kept out of the end zone after scoring three touchdowns in his previous two contests.

Terrelle Pryor is expected to have some help on the outside in the form of fellow wide receiver Corey Coleman, who will be "full speed ahead" for Sunday's game after sustaining a broken bone in his left hand during practice on Sept. 21. "We all know he is very explosive from the line of scrimmage and also when he gets the ball in his hands," Pryor said of the rookie, who had 104 yards and two touchdowns in his last game in Week 2. Pryor (hamstring), who is expected to play versus Dallas despite being limited in Thursday's practice, had six catches for 101 yards in last Sunday's 31-28 loss to the New York Jets

LINE HISTORY: The Cowboys opened the week as 7.5-point road favorites and were faded down to +7.0 mid-week before rising back to 7.5 Saturday morning. The total opened 46.5 and has risen two full points resting at 48.5. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS

* Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
* Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
* Under is 8-1 in Cowboys last 9 games on grass.
* Under is 7-1 in Browns last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5, 44)

Jacksonville’s offense has yet to top 400 total yards in a game and ranks 23rd in scoring and 26th in total offense, in large part because of one of the league’s least-productive ground attacks. Third-year quarterback Blake Bortles has put up decent numbers but also has thrown nine interceptions and hopes to see improvement after spending time tweaking his mechanics with private coach Adam Dedeaux. The defense is a major concern for the Jaguars, who gave up 494 total yards – 214 on the ground – against the Titans and have not forced a turnover in their last three games.

Foles performed well when pressed into action last week, passing for 223 yards and two touchdowns in a 30-14 win at Indianapolis, but he could have a tougher time if the Chiefs can’t establish the run. With Jamaal Charles back on injured reserve following another knee surgery and Ware unlikely to play, Charcandrick West is set to carry the load. The offense might not need to do much if the defense performs the way it did last week, holding the Colts to 277 total yards – the second time in the last three games the Chiefs have held the opposition under 300 yards.

LINE HISTORY: The Chiefs opened the game as 7.5-point home favorites and has remained there all week. The total opened at 45 and dropped one point to 44. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS

* Jaguars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in November.
* Chiefs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in November.
* Over is 9-1-1 in Jaguars last 11 games in Week 9.
* Under is 4-0 in Chiefs last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

N.Y. Jets at Miami Dolphins (-3.5, 43.5)

Ryan Fitzpatrick tossed four touchdown passes in a 38-20 victory over Miami on Nov. 29, with former Dolphins wideout Brandon Marshall reeling in nine receptions for 131 yards and two scores. Fellow wide receiver Quincy Enunwa (team-leading 36 catches, three touchdowns) found the end zone for the second straight week at the Browns on Sunday and had a season-best 93 yards receiving - highlighted by a 57-yard catch. Defensive end Muhammad Wilkerson has four sacks in the past three meetings and defensive tackle Leonard Williams (team-high six sacks) had a sack and a forced fumble in the last encounter.

Cornerback Byron Maxwell dismissed allegations by Marshall that the veteran holds "every single play." "I might be doing something right now, huh?" Maxwell said of getting under the skin of the veteran receiver. "I'm going to play my game. ... I mean, it's fun, I guess. But I'm not worried about anything. I'm still focused on the game and what I gotta do to win. I'm cool." Quarterback Ryan Tannehill has been anything but cool this season, but the 28-year-old looks to distribute the ball to Jarvis Landry (NFL sixth-best 46 receptions), Kenny Stills and DeVante Parker in a bid to exploit a Jets' secondary that has yielded an NFL-worst 289.1 yards per contest.

LINE HISTORY: Miami opened the week as 3-point home favorites and was quickly bet up to 4 before settling at 3.5. The total opened at 44 and dropped half point to 43.5. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS

* Jets are 5-0-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
* Jets are 4-1-2 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
* Under is 7-1 in Jets last 8 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
* Under is 6-1-1 in Dolphins last 8 games in Week 9.

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-6, 42)

Detroit's defense absorbed a blow as pass-rushing outside linebacker Armonty Bryant received a three-game suspension for violating the league's substance abuse policy. Bryant sat out the first four games of the season for a similar violation and was subsequently waived by Cleveland before he was picked up by Detroit. Bryant was productive in his brief stint with the Lions, recording three sacks in four games after collecting 5.5 in 14 games with the Browns last season. Quarterback Matthew Stafford has nine touchdowns and zero interceptions over the past four games and owns a career-best 103.4 passer rating.

Bereft of a running game, quarterback Sam Bradford has been under siege in the losses at Philadelphia and Chicago, getting sacked a total of 11 times. There is the hope that things will change with the promotion of Shurmur, who was the offensive coordinator for both the Eagles and Rams when Bradford played for each team. "I think it helps," Shurmur said Thursday. "Anytime you have a relationship with someone, you can communicate smoother and quicker, so I think that certainly helps." Minnesota is ranked 31st in rushing at a paltry 71.9 yards per game, but its defense is permitting a league-low 14.9 points.

LINE HISTORY: The Vikings opened as 6-point home favorites and rose to 6.5 before dropping to 5.5 and settled back at 6. The total opened at 41 and was bet up a full point to 42. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS

* Lions are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
* Lions are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games on fieldturf.
* Vikings are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
* Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

Philadelphia Eagles at N.Y. Giants (-2.5, 43)

Veteran Darren Sproles amassed 103 yards from scrimmage (86 rushing, 17 receiving) last week with fellow running back Ryan Mathews seeing his carries dwindle after a costly fumble in the previous contest. The 33-year-old Sproles looks to ignite Philadelphia's mediocre rushing attack (17th) against New York, against which he has recorded four touchdowns (three rushing, one receiving) in his last five games. The Eagles significantly are better at rushing the passer, as defensive end Brandon Graham and defensive tackle Fletcher Cox each have four of the team's 22 sacks this season.

Victor Cruz doesn't have fond memories of the last time he faced Philadelphia, as the 29-year-old wideout tore his patellar tendon in his right knee in 2014. "Obviously, in the back of my mind, I think about it," Cruz told reporters this week about the injury. "It's different circumstances, different year (and different stadium), but I'd be lying if I didn't say it's on my mind at some point." The Giants' ground attack could use a jolt as Rashad Jennings has been limited to a total of 67 yards rushing in his last three games, although he erupted for 170 yards and a touchdown in his last encounter with the Eagles.

LINE HISTORY: The Giants opened this NFC East battle as 3-point home favourites and has dropped half point on Monday and has remained at 2.5 ever since. The total opened at 44 and has been bet down a point to the current number of 43. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS

* Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Over is 8-0 in Eagles last 8 road games.
* Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in New York.

Carolina Panthers at Los Angeles Rams (+3, 44)

Carolina has moved the ball with ease, especially when Cam Newton has been healthy, but has been set back by a league-worst 17 turnovers. The return of Jonathan Stewart has helped the offense, as the veteran has rushed for multiple touchdowns in consecutive games after going for 95 yards and two scores against Arizona. The Panthers have been stout against the run, but the revamped secondary has turned in a couple of dreadful performances, albeit against much stronger passing attacks than it will see Sunday.

Los Angeles possesses one of the most punchless offenses in the league, which has prompted questions about whether No. 1 draft pick Jared Goff soon will get a chance under center. Journeyman Case Keenum has thrown 10 interceptions and just eight touchdown passes, and the lack of a dangerous passing game has made things tough for running back Todd Gurley, who averages a paltry three yards per carry. The defense has kept the Rams in games and held the Giants to 232 total yards last time out but has forced just one turnover during the three-game skid after recording nine takeaways in the first four contests.

LINE HISTORY: The Rams opened up as 2.5-point home dogs, but has been bet up quickly to 3 and remained there all week. Since opening at 45.5, the total has been bet down a point to the current number of 44. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS

* Panthers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
* Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in November.
* Over is 7-1 in Panthers last 8 vs. a team with a losing record.
* Panthers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

New Orleans Saints at San Francisco 49ers (+3.5, 53)

Brees in on pace for his fifth 5,000-yard season and leads the NFL, averaging 338 yards passing per game while throwing 18 touchdowns against just five interceptions. His numbers, however, are vastly different on the road as the 16-year veteran out of Purdue has six touchdowns and three picks in three road games. Emerging wide receiver Michael Thomas has 16 receptions in the past two games and with 500 yards receiving is one of three wideouts on the team (Brandon Cooks 530 yards, Willie Snead 439 yards) on pace to reach 1,000 yards on the season.

Since replacing Blaine Gabbert under center, Colin Kaepernick has completed 46 percent of his passes (29-of-63) for 330 yards with two touchdown passes and one interception while rushing 17 times for 150 yards (8.8 yards per carry) but the Niners have scored just 33 points in his two starts. Hyde has been inconsistent on the season, averaging 3.9 yards a carry, but his presence takes some of the onus off a passing unit that is last in the league with an average of 161.4 yards a game. "I think Colin's ability in the run game has given us a little bit of an added bonus," coach Chip Kelly said. "It forces you to say, 'Hey, if I'm a defensive coordinator, do I want to play man and now not have our back turned to the offense and then have the quarterback be able to take off?'"

LINE HISTORY: The Saints opened this NFC matchup favoured by 3-points and were faded as high as 4.5, but have settled back down at 4. The total opened at 51 and has been bet up two full points to the current number of 53. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Saints are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
* Saints are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games.
* Over is 7-0 in Saints last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.
* Over is 7-0 in 49ers last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

Indianapolis Colts at Green Bay Packers (-7.5, 54.5)

Protection problems were an issue last season as well, as Luck was limited to seven games with a lacerated kidney, but he could be getting ready to play behind another patchwork offensive line with guard Joe Reitz in the concussion protocol. Indianapolis' issues extend to the other side of the ball as well, and the pass defense ranks 31st in the league with an average of 288 yards allowed. The secondary figures to be at less than full strength again on Sunday, with safety Mike Adams (groin) and cornerback Vontae Davis (concussion) sitting out Wednesday's practice.

Green Bay, which can match injury lists with any team in the league, was without three key members of the secondary (Sam Shields, Damarious Randall and Quinten Rollins) while getting burned by Matt Ryan and Atlanta's passing attack last week. The Packers expect to get healthier - at least on the outside - this week on offense, with wide receivers Randall Cobb (hamstring) and Ty Montgomery (illness) returning to practice this week after sitting out against the Falcons. Green Bay also is thin at running back as Rodgers (60 yards on six carries) led the team in rushing last week.

LINE HISTORY: The Packers opened the week favoured by 7-points at home and that number has risen to 7.5. The total started at 53 and has been bet up to the current number of 54.5. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Packers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss.
* Packers are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
* Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.
* Home team is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Tennessee Titans at San Diego Chargers (-4, 47)

Mariota's performance against the Jaguars earned him a spot in an exclusive group, as he joined Fran Tarkenton, Dan Marino and Drew Bledsoe as the only quarterbacks in league history to throw at least two TD passes in four straight games before the age of 23 - accomplishing the feat three days prior to his birthday. Murray also played his way into the NFL record book last week, becoming the sixth player ever - and first since Tampa Bay's Doug Martin in 2012 - to rush for at least 750 yards and record eight overall touchdowns in his first eight contests with a team. The 28-year-old, who was a full participant in practice on Thursday after being limited a day earlier due to an injured toe, is on pace to gain over 1,500 yards for the second time in his six-year career.

Antonio Gates, who ranks second on the all-time list among tight ends in touchdowns, raised his career total to 107 - four behind leader Tony Gonzalez - in last week's loss to Denver and has caught a scoring pass in five of his last six meetings with Tennessee. Melvin Gordon, who enters Week 9 with a league-leading 10 touchdowns (eight rushing), has gained 276 yards from scrimmage and recorded three scores over his last two contests. Bosa is second on the team in sacks to Melvin Ingram (five) while Casey Hayward leads the club with four interceptions - the most by a Charger in a season since 2011.

LINE HISTORY: The Chargers opened as 4-point home favorites and were faded all the way up to 5.5, but has returned back to 4. The total opened at 48 and has been bet down to 47 on Monday and remained there ever since. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS

* Chargers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
* Chargers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up loss.
* Over is 5-0 in Titans last 5 games overall.
* Favorite is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

NFL Week 9 Essentials
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com

We’re into the second half of the season, so some teams are going to start pulling no-shows as sure as a few people in your fantasy league have given up the ghost. We’ll start to see who has staying power, but often times, players and coaches who have held up well up to this point begin to fall back and start running out of gas. This always makes for interesting results as the holidays approach and letdowns occur due to checking out and lack of focus. Injuries, too. Here’s what you need to know about the potholes lie before wagering on Week 9:

Jacksonville at Kansas City: The Chiefs will have Nick Foles at the reins on their opening possession after he came in last week after Alex Smith suffered a head injury and threw for 223 yards and two touchdowns. Smith won’t dress, so this will be an opportunity to create a QB controversy for Foles, an Andy Reid favorite who struggled last year with the Rams and hadn’t looked as effective as he did last week since Chip Kelly’s first season with the Eagles. Although the Jaguars pass defense isn’t overwhelming, they are better than the woeful Colts, who rank among the league’s worst in most categories defending the aerial attack. The Jags come off consecutive losses and are playing back-to-back road games for the first time since Nov. 15 of last season, beating Baltimore in that situation. Jacksonville suffered a disappointing end to October with Blake Bortles pressing and the defense getting gashed, playing so poorly that ownership had to come out and say head coach Gus Bradley wouldn’t be fired. This will be a great test to see whether his team has responded to him over an extended period since they last played in Nashville on Oct. 27.

Detroit at Minnesota: After that 5-0 start, it feels like the sky is falling for the Vikings, who have managed just 10 points in each of the last two games as Sam Bradford keeps missing hot reads and getting hit. In his defense, offensive line play has been atrocious, which could be an issue since the Lions pressure the quarterback well and have a healthy Ziggy Ansah hunting for his first sack of the season. A breakthrough here has the potential to single-handedly swing this game, especially since getting loose would ease the burden on a secondary that has made some key interceptions to close games this season but has surrendered the NFL's highest opposing QB rating, completion percentage and second-most passing touchdowns. Getting RB Jerick McKinnon back to run the football and offer a different look via the wildcat should be invaluable for Minnesota since he was badly missed in Monday night’s loss to Chicago. With Ronnie Hillman also better acclimated, the Vikings are better equipped to run the football and improve on what is currently NFL’s second-worst rushing output, but the biggest boost should come from returning to their fancy new building since they’ve gone 3-0 there, outscoring opponents all currently sporting winning records by a combined margin of 72-37. A victory will ease the current tension after Pat Shurmur was elevated to offensive coordinator after Norv Turner “resigned” earlier this week. Minnesota swept last year’s meetings and is looking to maintain an NFC North lead it has held since Week 2.

Philadelphia at N.Y. Giants: The Eagles have owned divisional rival New York over the last eight years, winning 13 of the last 16 meetings. Three different head coaches, Reid, Chip Kelly and Shurmur (interim) have beaten the Giants, but a new chapter opens with first-year head coaches Doug Pederson and Ben McAdoo squaring off. Donovan McNabb, Michael Vick, Foles, Mark Sanchez and Bradford have all won duels against Eli Manning in that span, so Carson Wentz gets his initial crack at joining that club while looking to prevent Philadelphia from falling to .500 for the first time under his watch. The Giants are coming off their bye week while the Eagles are on the road for the second straight week, so NYG should ideally be fresher and better prepared. Odell Beckham had time to heal a hip injury and declared himself at 85-90 percent earlier this week, although the boost they expected in the secondary with safeties Darian Thompson (foot) and Nat Berhe (concussion) potentially returning now hinges solely on Berhe being cleared since Thompson was ruled out Friday. Philly’s major injury concerns lie up front, even with WR/KR Josh Huff getting himself cut. If you didn't get enough of Joe Buck during the World Series, you'll hear him here alongside Troy Aikman.

Dallas at Cleveland: Tony Romo practiced 11-on-11 for the first time, so he’s getting closer to being ready, perhaps as early as next week. Rookie QB Dak Prescott further secured his hold on the position by leading a comeback overtime win over the Eagles last Sunday night and will look to improve to 4-0 on the road against a Browns defense that has allowed the most yards per game and surrenders 29.8 points, ranking 30th. In other words, he’s got a chance to really impress again, working with an offense that has helped produce over 28 points per game during Dallas’ current six-game winnings streak. Defensively, Dallas will be without CB Morris Claiborne and S Barry Church, who were both injured against Philly and face extended absences. Cleveland rookie QB Cody Kessler will look to take advantage as he returns to the lineup after overcoming a concussion. He’ll have speedy WR Corey Coleman (hand) back as the 15th pick in this past draft joins Terrelle Pryor in the lineup for the first time since Week 3, so Hue Jackson could have some tricks up his sleeve for this one. The Browns are 0-8 for the first time since 1975 season after blowing a 20-7 halftime lead against the Jets on Sunday. They’re 2-11 over their last 13 home games.

N.Y. Jets at Miami: New York had given up 51 of 58 second-half points entering Week 7, so it has been surprising to see them rally from halftime deficits in consecutive weeks, albeit against the banged-up Ravens and winless Browns. We’ll see if the unexpected rise from the dead continues on the road in South Florida, where the Jets have gone 4-1 since 2010. The Dolphins are on a three-game losing streak against their AFC East rival and in the midst of their own resurgence, riding RB Jay Ajayi’s rise to consecutive wins before enjoying a bye week entering this one. Ajayi, looking to become the first player in NFL history to run for 200 yards in three straight games, will encounter a Jets run defense that is among the league’s most formidable, allowing a single 100-yard rusher (David Johnson) this season in becoming the stingiest in yards per game (74.0). They’ve got injury-related issues at linebacker, but didn’t trade Sheldon Richardson and are therefore deep enough to effectively square off against a Miami offensive line that has impressed greatly since becoming whole. Speaking of which, the Jets are banged-up there too, listing All-Pro center Nick Mangold as doubtful after he missed action last week, while Breno Giacomini, Ryan Clady and Brent Qvale all harbor injury concerns. This will be New York’s final road game until Dec. 11.

Pittsburgh at Baltimore: Terrell Suggs wholeheartedly believes Ben Roethlisberger will play after undergoing knee surgery on a torn meniscus less than three weeks ago and it’s starting to look like he’ll be proven correct. Oddsmakers initially installed the Ravens as a 2.5-point favorite, but it’s been available as a pick’em for much of the week and several books now favor the Steelers on the road. Backup Landry Jones finished 29-for-47 in his lone start at New England, but should have a better shot at success if he is pressed into duty since Pittsburgh is coming off its bye week. Sammie Coates, who has struggled with a hand injury since racking up 139 receiving yards and two TDs in a win over the Jets, is expected back at full strength to serve as the deep threat for whoever is under center. Antonio Brown, who was battling a hip issue, also benefited greatly, which doesn’t bode well for the Ravens’ injury-riddled secondary. Although they’re 6-2 coming off a bye under John Harbaugh, they lost to the Jags at home last season in that situation. Baltimore has won five of six in this rivalry and hasn’t lost at home to the Steelers since 2010, but is currently experiencing its first four-game losing streak in eight years under Harbaugh.

New Orleans at San Francisco: These former NFC West rivals surrender the most points per game of anyone thus far, the only teams giving up over 30. That makes it a bit surprising to see that the total opened at a relatively modest 50.5 before being bet up a few points. Although Drew Brees matched a season-low with just one touchdown pass last week, he’s thrown eight touchdowns against just two interceptions against the Panthers, Chiefs and Saints, getting rid of the ball quickly and giving his team life after an 0-3 start. The 49ers are coming off their first bye week under Chip Kelly, so we’ll see what he’s comes up with in the lab. His record post-bye in Philadelphia was a solid 2-1, producing an OT win over Dallas and a split with Arizona, but he’s now working with Colin Kaepernick, who just celebrated his 29th birthday on Thursday and hopefully wished for his first productive game in over a year. The 49ers are 1-8 in his last nine starts and haven’t seen him complete over 60 percent of his passes twice in that span. He did run for 84 yards in the pre-bye loss to Tampa Bay and could be more dangerous in the read option game if he gets talented RB Carlos Hyde back from a shoulder sprain suffered Oct. 16. He’ll be a game-time decision.

Carolina at Los Angeles: The Panthers put together a great effort out of their bye week with a wire-to-wire win over Arizona, so they find themselves across the country looking to keep hope alive. It’s going to take a significant run for them to crawl out of the huge hole they’ve dug, but since Carolina’s next two games are at home, there’s room for optimism. Health will play a key role since center Matt Kalil and LB Luke Kuechly, two of the NFL’s best at their positions, are both listed as questionable. With LB Shaq Thompson and left tackle Michael Oher ruled out, Carolina could be at a huge disadvantage if either Kalil or Kuechly is unable to play. The Rams stumbled into their bye week on a three-game losing streak suffered in part due to their defense being besieged by injuries, so their pause came at a perfect time. Top corner Trumaine Johnson hopes to play after being sidelined by a high ankle sprain. Cam Newton failed to account for a touchdown last week for the first time since Oct. 2014, so he’ll be looking to rebound against a unit that is stingy when whole. The Panthers are 0-3 as a road favorite this season after going 6-1 in that role last season.

Indianapolis at Green Bay: Andrew Luck will make his Lambeau Field debut with his team’s season and head coach’s job potentially on the line, so there’s no pressure here at all. He won his first duel against Aaron Rodgers as a rookie back in ‘12, connecting with Reggie Wayne in the final minute to post a memorable fourth-quarter comeback as the Colts rallied from a 21-3 halftime deficit. The Colts will need that type of magic to overcome their massive defensive shortcomings, but since their offensive line play has been so awful, it will likely be left to Luck to continue his superb play despite the piano strapped to his back. He’ll have T.Y. Hilton in there despite a hamstring injury suffered in last week’s loss at Kansas City, but his already porous line will be without starters Joe Reitz and Jack Mewhort the defense could be forced to try and contain the Packers without top corner Vontae Davis if he can’t clear concussion protocol. Green Bay is 3-1 at Lambeau Field after uncharacteristically slumping at home down the stretch last season, so its hoping to bounce back there after blowing a late Week 8 lead at Atlanta. It should help to have LB Clay Matthews and CB Quinten Rollins back to aid the cause on defense since both expect to play. Versatile WRs Randall Cobb and Ty Montgomery also have a shot to be out there, though both will likely be game-time decisions..

Tennessee at San Diego: Over the past four games, the Chargers have played defending champ Denver twice in addition to road games at Oakland and Atlanta. The combined record of that group is a healthy 18-7 entering Sunday, so the Bolts have certainly been tested, faring extremely well in splitting that monster slate. Will they have enough in the tank to hold off a Titans team looking to get over .500 this late in a season for the first time since 2011? It doesn’t help matters that rookie playmakers Hunter Henry (TE) and Jatavis Brown (LB) have already been ruled out, as has second-year CB Craig Mager. Standout LB Denzel Perryman and key safety Jahleel Addae appear doubtful, so the Chargers could have a hard time stopping a Marcus Mariota-led Titans offense that has helped average 30 points over the last four games and will have NFL rushing leader RB DeMarco Murray in there after suffering a toe injury in their Oct. 26 win over the Jags. Standout TE Delanie Walker will be a game-time decision, but Tennessee’s defense should be healthy. Since relocating from Houston, the Titans are 1-8 against the Chargers and are 0-5 in San Diego.

Denver at Oakland: Sunday night matchups have actually been the NFL's go-to games thus far this season, with attractive matchups typically resulting in good games with a few exceptions. Hopefully this lives up to billing, because it's a beauty on paper. Whether great or a stinker, this showdown will produce a 7-2 team and AFC West leader upon completion. It offers great contrast, since Denver will be looking to ride its defense in stopping a potent Raiders attack that has scored 30 or more in three of the last four games, riding emerging star QB Derek Carr, who comes off his second four-touchdown game of the season, throwing for 513 yards in an OT win in Tampa. He's up to 17 TD passes while throwing just three picks. The Broncos will have to contain him without top corner Aqib Talib, who will miss his second straight due to back trouble. Reigning AFC Defensive Player of the Week Bradley Roby will start in his place. Broncos QB Trevor Siemian hasn’t looked sharp since returning from a shoulder injury, missing passes and looking more rattled behind shaky offensive line play than he did while looking like a natural in winning his first three starts. It will definitely help that C Matt Paradis and rookie RB Devontae Booker should be available. The Broncos had won eight straight in this series before Oakland pulled a 15-12 upset at Mile High last December. The Raiders are looking for their first home win in this series since 2010. These teams meet again in Denver on Jan. 1 in the regular-season finale.