NFL Betting News And NotesFor Sunday December 24, 2017

NFL

Week 16

Sunday's games
Lions (8-6) @ Bengals (5-9)— Detroit needs two wins and two Falcon losses to make playoffs. Lions won five of last seven games, are 5-2 on road, 2-0-1 as road faves, winning by 14-7-13-3-3 points- they were -5 in turnovers in their two road losses, at Saints/Ravens. Cincy lost last three games, outscored 67-14 last two weeks; looks like Marvin Lewis is a lame-duck coach. Bengals are 3-4 at home this season, 1-0 as a home underdog. Bengals won last five series games, four of which were in Detroit; Lions’ last series win was in 1992. AFC North home underdogs are 1-3 vs spread outside the division; NFC North favorites are 10-4, 3-1 on road. Over is 7-3 in Lions’ last ten games, 3-0-1 in Bengals’ last four home games. In their last nine games, Bengals have run 19.6 fewer plays per game than their opponent.

Chargers (7-7) @ Jets (5-9)— Chargers are still alive for playoffs, but they need two wins and help; Bolts won four of last five games, are 3-4 on road, 1-1 as road favorites- they beat Giants 27-22 on this field in Week 6. Jets lost seven of last nine games; they’re 4-3 at home, 5-2 as home underdogs, with home losses by 7-5-8 points. Petty is now 1-4 as an NFL starter, scoring 12.8 pts/game. Jets converted 8-28 on 3rd down in last two gamesChargers won four of last six series games, three of last four played here. AFC West non-divisional road favorites are 3-5-1 vs spread; AFC East home underdogs are 4-3-1. Eight of last nine Charger games stayed under total; over is 3-1 in Jets’ last four games. Chargers are 2-7 if they allow 19+ points, 5-0 when they allow less than 19. Jets scored 19+ in six of their last eight games.

Rams (10-4) @ Titans (8-6)— Tennessee is in 3-way tie for AFC West Cards; they won last five home games, are 0-3 vs spread as an underdog this year, all on road. Six of their last eight games were decided by 5 or less points. Titans have only two takeaways (-8) in their last five games. Rams won seven of last nine games, can clinch NFC West with a win here; LA is 6-1 in true road games, 2-1 as road favorites- they scored nine TD’s on 25 drives in last two games, but are just 17 of last 59 on 3rd down in their last five games. Rams are 7-5 in this series, beating Titans 23-16 in Super Bowl XXXIV; they’re 1-2 vs Titans since then, are 0-2 in Nashville. Last three Ram games went over the total; under is 3-1 in last four Tennessee tilts.

Browns (0-14) @ Bears (4-10)— Cleveland is 1-29 the last two years; they could win a game and still get the #1 pick in April’s draft. Browns are 3-11 vs spread this year, 1-4 as road underdogs, with road losses by 14-3-16-14-14-9 points. Cleveland is -12 in turnovers the last five games, turning ball over 13 times. That said, you want to lay a TD with the Bears? Chicago lost six of last seven games; they’re 0-2 as favorites this year, 2-5 at home, beating Steelers by 6 in OT, Carolina by 14, when defense scored both TD’s. Chicago is 3-1 against the Browns, winning 27-21/30-6 in two games played here. AFC North non-divisional road underdogs are 6-5-1 vs spread; NFC North home favorites are 7-3. Four of Browns’ last five road games went over total.

Buccaneers (4-9) @ Panthers (10-4)— Carolina won six of its last seven games; they’re 5-2 at home, 3-3 as home favorites; they’re +8 in turnovers the last five games. Short week for Bucs after Monday night’s loss to Atlanta. Tampa Bay lost nine of its last ten games; they’re 1-6 on road, 1-3-1 as road underdogs, with losses by 17-5-3-20-14-6 points. This series has been swept the last eight years; Carolina (+1.5) won first meeting 17-3 in Tampa in Week 8, they were 8-17 on 3rd down, had 3 takeaways (+2). Bucs lost three of their last four visits here, losing by 21-2-28 points. Home teams are 6-2 vs spread in AFC South divisional games. Six of Bucs’ seven road games went over the total, as did the last five Carolina games.

Falcons (9-5) @ Saints (10-4)— Falcons (-2.5) beat Saints 20-17 at home two weeks ago, despite going -2 in turnovers; they’re 5-2 in last seven games vs New Orleans, winning 2 of last 3 games in Superdome. Series has been swept the last four years. Atlanta has short week after Monday’s win; they won five of last six games, are 4-2 on road, 1-2 as road underdogs. 10 of their 14 games were decided by 7 or less points. Saints won their last six home games, are 3-3 as home faves; they scored 30+ points in five of last seven games. NO won field position battle in 10 of their last 12 games. Home teams are 6-2 vs spread in AFC South divisional games. Nine of last 12 Atlanta games stayed under total; four of last six Saint games went over.

Broncos (5-9) @ Redskins (6-8)— Denver won its last two games after an 0-8 skid; Broncos are 1-6 on road, 0-3 as road dogs, with road losses by 10-21-10-28-7-26 points- they’re minus-15 in turnovers. Denver allowed one TD on 19 drives in their last two games. Washington lost six of last nine games; they’re 4-3 at home, 2-1 as home favorites. Redskins lost field position battle in nine of last ten games. Washington is 3 of its last 21 on 3rd down; they gained total of 419 yards in their last two games. Denver won four of last six series games; they’re 2-3 in five visits here. NFC East non-divisional home favorites are 6-5 vs spread; AFC West road underdogs are 4-4. Four of last five Denver games stayed under total, as did three of last four Redskin games.

Dolphins (6-8) @ Chiefs (8-6)— Chiefs lead AFC West by a game; they won last two games after a 1-6 skid. KC scored nine TD’s on 29 drives in their last three games, since OC Nagy took over play-calling duties. Chiefs are 5-2 at home, 4-2 as home favorites- they’re +6 in turnovers in last two games. Dolphins lost five of last seven games; they’re 2-5 in true road games, losing last four by combined score of 144-54. In their last three games, Fish are 6-40 on 3rd down. Miami won three of last four series games, winning 38-31/31-3 in last two visits here. AFC West non-divisional home favorites are 5-9 vs spread; AFC East road underdogs are 7-5. Five of last six KC games stayed under the total; over is 7-0-1 in Miami’s last eight games.

Bills (8-6) @ Patriots (11-3)— Patriots won 23-3 (-9) in Buffalo three weeks ago, outgaining Bills 435-268; they’re 30-4 in last 34 series games, but Buffalo won two of last three visits here. Bills are in 3-way tie for the two AFC Wild Cards; they’re 2-4 on road, 3-2 as road underdogs, losing away games by 6-4-13-30 points, with wins in Atlanta/KC. Patriots can clinch #1 seed in AFC with win here; they won last three home games by average score of 26-12. NE covered seven of its last eight games; they’re +8 in turnovers in its last six games. Home teams are 7-1-1 vs spread in AFC East divisional games this season. Three of last four Buffalo games stayed under total; under is 3-1-1 in last five New England games. Patriots had 3 or fewer penalties in four of their last six games.

Jaguars (10-4) @ 49ers (4-10)— Jaguars clinch division and home game in playoffs with a win here; they’ve won seven of last eight games, covering last three. Jags are 4-2 on road, 2-2 as road favorites; they’re +8 in turnovers in last five games. 49ers are 4-1 since an 0-9 start; Garoppolo is first QB since Roethlisberger to win his first five NFL starts. In their last three games, 49ers scored three TD’s, tried 15 FG’s; they need to improve in red zone. Teams split four meetings; Jaguars lost 20-3 here in ’09, then again in London four years ago. NFC West non-divisional home favorites are 5-3 vs spread; AFC South road underdogs are 4-5-1. Three of Jaguars’ last four games went over the total; under is 5-2 in 49ers’ last seven games.

Giants (2-12) @ Cardinals (6-8)— Arizona didn’t score a TD on 24 drives in its last two games, they switch to Stanton (9-6 as NFL starter) at QB here. Cardinals lost four of last six games, are 4-3 at home despite being underdog in six of seven games. Giants had ball in red zone to beat Eagles LW, were tied in 4th quarter with Dallas week before, so they’re still competing. Big Blue is 1-6 on road, 4-2 vs spread as road underdogs. Teams split their last eight meetings; Giants won 37-29/31-27 in last two visits here, with last one in 2011. NFC West non-divisional home favorites are 5-3 vs spread; NFC East road underdogs are 9-4. Four of last five Giant games stayed under total; under is 9-4 in Arizona’s last thirteen games.

Seahawks (8-6) @ Cowboys (8-6)— Elimination game in NFC playoff chase; Cowboys get Elliott back from suspension here. Dallas won its last three games, allowing 13.7 ppg; they’re 3-4 at home, 2-2 as home favorites. Cowboys ran ball for 143.3 ypg the last three weeks. Seahawks got crushed 42-7 at home LW; they’re 3-4 in last seven games, 4-3 on road, 1-3 as road underdogs- they didn’t score a first half point in last two games. Dallas won four of last six series games; Seattle won last meeting 13-12 here two years ago. Seahawks are 3-6 overall in Dallas. NFC East non-divisional home favorites are 6-5 vs spread; NFC West road underdogs are 5-9. Six of last seven Dallas games stayed under total; under is 5-2 in Seattle road games.

Essential Week 16 betting tidbits and odds for NFL on Sunday

Detroit Lions at Cincinnati Bengals (+3.5, 44)

Weird stories have been coming out of the Bengals’ camp all season. A report surfaced before Cincy’s game last Sunday against the Vikings that head coach Marvin Lewis would step aside at the end of the year to pursue other interests.

Lewis, who’s been the HC for 15 years and never led the Bengals to a playoff win, is on the last year of his deal – so the announcement would really just be a face-saving move for his side.

With or without Lewis – the Bengals have to fix their offense. They scored in the last six minutes of the fourth quarter to avoid being shut out by the Vikings last weekend. QB Andy Dalton has completed 25 of his 51 pass attempts for 254 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions over his last two games.

LINE HISTORY: The spread opened at Bengals +4, went to +5 and is now down as low as +3.5. There are still a number of sportsbooks dealing Lions -4.

TRENDS:

*The Lions are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games against teams with losing records.
*The under is 15-7 in the Bengals’ last 22 games.

Cleveland Browns at Chicago Bears (-6.5, 38)

Betting against the Browns is good business for bettors. Cleveland is 4-42 straight up and 12-33-1 against the spread over the last three seasons. An astute gambler would be up $2100 if he/she had faded the Browns and bet $100 on their opponents to cover in each game.

LINE HISTORY: Most shops opened with the Bears as 6.5-ponit faves but there were a few that went with a touchdown spread. Every location is now dealing Browns +6.5. The total is hanging around 38.

TRENDS:

*The Bears are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games.
*The under is 4-0 in the Bears last four games.

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-6, 52.5)

The Falcons held the Saints to just 50 yards rushing on 15 carries when the two NFC South foes met earlier this month. That was quite a feat considering the Saints own the fifth ranked rushing attack at 135.1 yards per game.

New Orleans dynamic running back Alvin Kamara will be fully fit in this contest – and that could make a big difference. The Saints are No. 1 in yards gained after the catch (2178) in large part because of damage Kamara does in the open field. He’s second on the team in receptions at 68.

LINE HISTORY: The Saints opened as 5.5-point favorites and the line has crept up to 6. The total is staying put around 52.5.

TRENDS:

*The Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last five games.
*The over is 15-5-1 in the Saints’ last 21 home games.

Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5, 43.5)

The flu bug is running through the Chiefs. TE Travis Kelce, OL Justin Houston and LT Eric Fisher all missed days of practice this week because they were filling ill.

LINE HISTORY: The books opened with the Phins getting 10 points and the spread is now up to 11 points. The total has dropped from the opening number of 45 to 43.5 at some shops.

TRENDS:

*The over is 8-1 in the Dolphins’ last nine games.
*The Chiefs are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games.

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-11.5, 47.5)

The Bills would like nothing more than to keep their hopes alive by beating the Patriots at New England. Buffalo is playing off like the game doesn’t have anything extra but Rob Gronkowski’s hit on Bills CB Tre’Davious White angered a lot people.

Gronk was suspended one game – which might have been on the light side. Buffalo fans probably wished the All-Pro tight end was suspended for this game. Gronk has made a meal out of his matchups against the Bills over the years. He’s collected 11 touchdown grabs in 12 career games with 61 catches for 960 yards.

LINE HISTORY: The Pats opened as 12.5-point faves and while there are some books still dealing at that number – a few others have dropped it down to 11.5.

TRENDS:

*The road team is 19-7-1 ATS in the last 27 matchups between these two teams.
*The under is 8-2 in the Bills’ last 10 games.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (-10, 46.5)

There haven’t been a lot of points put up on the board in recent history with these two teams. The Panthers won 17-3 against TB earlier this season and the average total points scored in the last eight meetings is just 36.9. That’s almost 10 points below the total listed in this game.

LINE HISTORY: The Panthers opened as 10-point chalk and there hasn’t been a lot of movement although a few books do have the line up to 10.5 now. The total is bouncing between 47 and 46.5.

TRENDS:

*The Panthers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games.
*The road team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings between these two teams.

Los Angeles Rams at Tennessee Titans (+6.5, 47)

Special teams don’t get a lot of attention on the ESPN talking heads shows because no one really wants to talk about kicking. But one of the many reasons the Los Angeles Rams are so damn good this season is because of special teams. The unit sits second in the league according to Football Outsiders special teams rankings.

LA will have trouble holding the ranking over of the last two weeks of the season after the club lost its Pro Bowl kicker, Greg Zuerlein, to a back injury. The Rams signed Sam Ficken – a guy who’s never attempted a kick in the pros and last hit one through the uprights when he was at Penn State in 2014 – to be Zuerlein’s replacement.

LINE HISTORY: The spread has jumped back and forth between 6.5 and 7 with juice on either side. The total opened at 48.5 and can be found as low as 46.5 now.

TRENDS:

*The Rams are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.
*The Titans are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 home games.

Los Angeles Chargers at New York Jets (+6.5, 42.5)

Bolts fans were given a scare at the tail end of last weekend’s loss to the Chiefs when Pro Bowl receiver Keenan Allen was carted off the field. Head coach Anthony Lynn said after the game it was only a precautionary measure and it looks to be true. Allen is not on the Chargers’ injury report this week.

Allen is the key to LA’s passing game. He leads the team in receptions and has 39 more grabs than the next closest teammate.

LINE HISTORY: This line has bounced between 6.5 and 7 all week although just about all locations are at 6.5 as we enter the weekend. The total opened at 42.5 and has been nudged up to 43.

TRENDS:

*The Jets are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games.
*The over is 4-0 in the Chargers’ last four games.

Denver Broncos at Washington Redskins (-3.5, 40.5)

The Broncos’ defense is back on track after strong showings in the last two weeks. Denver shutout the Jets and gave up only 13 points to the Colts. The Broncos’ are allowing an average of just 213.7 yards over their last three games. The Redskins are dead last in yards gained per game over their last three – with an average of just 233.

LINE HISTORY: There were a few books that opened with the ‘Skins favored by four points but there are only 3.5s on the board now.

TRENDS:

*The Broncos are 1-8 ATS in their last nine road games.
*The over is 20-7 in the Redskins’ last 27 games.

Jacksonville Jaguars at San Francisco 49ers (+4.5, 42)

The Jags will have starting running back Leonard Fournette back in the fold this weekend after he missed last weekend’s game against the Texans because of a quad injury. Fournette is having an explosive rookie season but the Jags are still 3-0 straight up and against the spread while outscoring 95-14 in games without Fournette this year.

Jacksonville is the league’s top rushing attack but the Niners are allowing just 80.7 yards per game on the ground over their last three contests.

LINE HISTORY: This game opened with the Jags favored by as much as 5.5 points but just about all shops are now at 4.5 for the spread. The total can be found at 42 and 42.5.

TRENDS:

*The under is 1-4 in the Niners’ last five home games.
*The Jags are 4-1 ATS in their last five games.

New York Giants at Arizona Cardinals (-3, 40)

The Cards are going back to Drew Stanton as their starting quarterback – a move that surprised everyone including Stanton himself.

“I think the biggest thing is we’re so close to winning that football game (last weekend against the Redskins), and maybe we’re not having this discussion at that point. But that’s not for me to say,” Stanton told reporters after head coach Bruce Arians announces the QB switch.

Most people assumed Stanton was done for the year after spraining his knee in Week 10. Arians admitted Stanton will probably be playing in a lot of pain this weekend.

LINE HISTORY: The Cards opened up as 4.5-point favorites but the spread has dropped to a field goal spread.

TRENDS:

*The Cards are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five home games.
*The under is 4-1 in the Giants’ last five games.

Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys (-4.5, 47)

The Seahawks have been abused the last two weeks by star running back and they’re going to see another one this weekend in Dallas. Seattle allowed 244 yards on the ground against the Rams last weekend and 156 the week prior against the Jaguars.

The Cowboys will welcome Ezekiel Elliott back this weekend after he missed the last six games due to a league suspension. Elliott rushed for 390 yards and five touchdowns in his last three games – all Dallas wins – before the suspension.

LINE HISTORY: Most books opened with the ‘Boys favored by 4 points and the number crept up to 5 and 5.5 at some shops late in the week.

TRENDS:

*The under is 6-1 in the Cowboys’ last seven games overall.
*The Seahawks are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight games.
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NFL opening line report: Playoff chases front and center in Week 16
Patrick Everson

“Dallas will be a short favorite in this one when we open. Both teams are trying to hang around for a playoff spot, but neither are impressing too greatly.”

Week 16 of the NFL regular season has some key games on tap, but because of how Week 15 is playing out, many sportsbooks aren’t yet posting lines on those matchups. However, thanks to Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu, Everson still gets you a little insight on a quartet of contests with playoff implications.

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (no line)

New Orleans lost its first two games of the season, but has only lost twice since then to stand tied with Carolina atop the NFC South. The Saints (10-4 SU, 8-6 ATS) were massive 16.5-point home favorites against the New York Jets on Sunday and were never covering that number, but got a 31-19 victory.

Defending NFC champion Atlanta still has Week 15 work to do before Bookmaker.eu can set the line on Falcons-Saints. Atlanta (8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS), which travels to Tampa Bay for the Monday nighter, just hosted the Saints a week ago, notching a 20-17 home win as a 2.5-point chalk.

“If there are no major injuries Monday evening, and the Falcons win, we’ll look to make the Saints around 4-point chalk for this big divisional matchup,” Cooley said. “The public will continue to play New Orleans, and we know every Joe Bettor and his dog will be on the over.”

Los Angeles Rams at Tennessee Titans (+7)

Los Angeles is looking very much like the real postseason deal heading into the final two weeks of the regular season. The Rams (10-4 SU, 9-5 ATS) steamrolled Seattle 42-7 as a 1-point road fave in Week 15 and now have complete control of the NFC West.

Tennessee would be in the playoffs if the season ended today, but needs better results than it got in Week 15 to stay in that position. The Titans (8-6 SU, 6-7-1 ATS) lost to San Francisco 25-23 on a last-second field goal, though they cashed as a 2.5-point road pup.

“Marcus Mariota just isn’t playing at the same level he was before the injury earlier this season,” Cooley said. “He’s gutting it out weekly, but he’s a shell of his former shelf, which has caused a drastic downgrade for Tennessee in our ratings. Early action has come on the Titans, dropping the spread a half-point.”

That move put the line at Rams -6.5.

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (no line)

Green Bay got Aaron Rodgers back for Week 15, and while he led a valiant late rally at Carolina, he also threw three interceptions. That doomed the Packers (7-7 SU and ATS) to a 31-24 loss catching 3 points on the road, and likely ended their playoff hopes.

Meanwhile, Minnesota had no problem dispatching Cincinnati on Sunday. The Vikings (11-3 SU, 10-4 ATS) led 24-0 at halftime and cruised to 34-7 home win laying 12.5 points.

This is another line that Bookmaker.eu has put on hold.

“We really have to wait and see what the Packers decide to do with Rodgers,” Cooley said, pointing to the fact that if Atlanta beats Tampa on Monday night, Green Bay is eliminated from playoff contention. “The Packers might be home underdogs to this great Vikings squad either way, but are certainly a healthy ‘dog if Brett Hundley is back under center. If the Falcons win Monday, we don’t expect to see Rodgers the rest of the year.”

This NFC North clash is in prime time on Saturday, with an 8:30 p.m. ET kickoff.

Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys (no line)

Dallas is clinging to postseason life, but might get a little defibrillation this week, with star running back Ezekiel Elliott returning from his six-game suspension. The Cowboys (8-6 SU and ATS) went off as a 3-point chalk at Oakland on Sunday night and pushed with a 20-17 victory, sealed when Raiders QB Derek Carr fumbled inside the 2-yard line in the final minute.

Seattle is also on the outside looking in for the moment, thanks to that aforementioned beatdown suffered at the hands of the Rams. The Seahawks (8-6 SU, 5-8-1 ATS) could still reach the playoffs, but may need some help getting there after that dismal 42-7 loss to L.A. as a 1-point home ‘dog.

With the Cowboys playing Sunday night, Bookmaker.eu will wait to post this number until Monday.

“Dallas will be a short favorite in this one when we open. Both teams are trying to hang around for a playoff spot, but neither are impressing too greatly,” Cooley said. “The Seahawks were badly exposed Sunday, but we will certainly expect their best effort here. We’ll need some sharp action on the underdog to offset the square money that will come on the Cowboys.”