NFL betting news, trends, odds and predictions for Tuesday, January 9, 2018 from various handicappers and websites
Wild-card weekend featured an against-the-spread sweep by the four underdogs, a result partly attributable to inflated lines. While both 'dogs won Saturday’s games outright, the Bills covered as 8.5-point dogs in a 10-3 loss at Jacksonville on Sunday, and the Panthers cashed while catching 6.5 at New Orleans later that afternoon.
The underdogs may offer value in the divisional round as well.
“As a bookmaker, you want to open these things higher than you even think they are. Even if you write a bet or two on the dog it’s no big deal, because with all the teasers and money lines, straight bets and parlays, you’ll still need that side,” Ed Salmons, oddsmaker at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, said Sunday night. “That’s reflected in this week’s (divisional round) lines, too. You can see how these things are all really juiced up.”
With that, here are the early betting numbers for this week’s quartet of playoff games. Point spreads and totals listed are the Vegas consensus as of Monday morning, and differences among sports books and early moves are also noted.
Saturday, January 13, 2018
Atlanta Falcons (-2.5, 41.5) at Philadelphia Eagles - (NBC, 4:35 p.m. ET)
For the first time since the expansion of the NFL playoff field to 12 teams in 1990, bookmakers have installed a No. 1 seed as an underdog in the divisional round. The betting line for Saturday afternoon’s affair is an obvious reflection of the quarterback situation: It’s Matt Ryan, last season’s MVP and near-Super Bowl hero, vs. Nick Foles, who has not impressed in Carson Wentz’s stead.
“It’s based on perception, that’s how this game is made,” Salmons said of opening Atlanta -2.5. “The perception is the Eagles are no good with Nick Foles and Atlanta is the team that should have won the Super Bowl and just won their hardest game (of the season) against the Rams, and they’ll go in and roll the Eagles. I don’t think that’s going to happen, but I think that’s what (the public is) going to bet, and that’s why the line is where it is."
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“We’ll need the Eagles, and there’s no reason to need the Eagles at pick ‘em because if people want to lay 2.5 or 3, let ‘em,” he added.
South Point sports book director Chris Andrews was surprised to see the Falcons as the team laying the points.
“I don’t agree with the number at all. I think it’s a huge overreaction,” Andrews said.
With a healthy Wentz, Philly would be about a 7.5-point favorite, Andrews estimated, “so you’re talking about a 10-point difference with Foles. Foles isn’t great, but he isn’t terrible.”
Foles’ performance over the last few games notwithstanding, bettors shouldn’t forget how good the Eagles have been this season.
“Philly is solid up and down that whole lineup, it’s not just at quarterback,” Andrews said. “I know Foles has not looked great, but he’s had a couple weeks now at starter, and I really like the coaching staff for Philly and I think Foles will play well. I was thinking pick ‘em, and that, ‘Boy, I would still play Philly at pick ‘em.’ And here we are at 2.5.”
The Wynn’s John Avello, though, believes the Falcons deserve to be favored in this spot.
“They’re certainly not the same team without their starting quarterback,” Avello said of the Eagles.
Early bettors agree.
“I opened at 2. I thought that was plenty high, but we went to 2.5, and they’re laying me the 2.5,” Andrews said. “I don’t know if I’m going to go to 3 or not, but right now it’s been all Atlanta money at my store.”
The line did bump to Atlanta -3 (even) during early wagering on some boards, and that’s getting real close to a number that will pique wiseguys’ interest in the dog.
“I think wiseguys will take Philadelphia +3 flat at any time, and I wouldn’t be surprised if at some point, they drive this line back toward Atlanta -1 or even a pick,” Salmons said.
The public laying the points and the sharps taking them is a good situation for books.
“As a bookmaker, you never want the public and the wiseguys to be on the same side,” Salmons said. “That’s your worst nightmare because you have a huge decision, and that’s the last thing you want.”
Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots (-13.5, 47) - (CBS, 8:15 p.m. ET)
The Westgate’s in-house numbers had the Patriots as a 13.5-point favorite for Saturday’s primetime offering, but the bookmakers decided to post New England -14 to test the market. The opening line drew close to $10,000 in bets on the Titans +14, prompting an adjustment to 13.5. Those wagers on the 'dog were likely from bettors grabbing the biggest number they could find.
On the other hand, public bettors aren’t scared off by large spreads when it comes to the Patriots. And laying big numbers at home in the divisional round is a familiar role for New England. Last season, also on a Saturday night, the Pats were 16-point favorites vs. Houston .
“They didn’t care, they laid it to death,” Salmons said of casual bettors.
They also cashed, as New England won the game, 34-16.
Avello gives the Titans a puncher’s chance in Foxboro next weekend, a better chance, in fact, than Jacksonville has at Pittsburgh on Sunday despite the shorter point spread.
“Their defense seems to play better when it gets to the postseason, but you can run the ball the on ‘em, you can throw the ball on ‘em,” Avello said of the Patriots, “I mean, they bend. That’s the only reason I give the Tennessee team a shot.”
Sunday, January 14, 2018
Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7.5, 41) - (CBS, 1:05 p.m. ET)
The spread of Sunday’s AFC divisional game is identical to the line when these teams met at Pittsburgh in Week 5 of this year's regular season. The Jags, as 7.5-point dogs, rolled to a 30-9 win, thanks largely to one of the worst games of Ben Roethlisberger’s career (five INTs).
But isn’t Jacksonville perceived as a better team now than it was then?
Maybe not after an inept offensive showing at home Sunday vs. the Bills.
“I don’t think they’re any good now. Their offense today was terrible,” Avello said Sunday.
The true line of this game is Pitt -6.5, Salmons estimated, but again, the Westgate wanted to go higher and posted -7.5 as the opener. Seeing Pitt -6 offshore, bettors wagered about $10,000 on Jacksonville +7.5 at the Westgate, prompting a move 7.
The line is since back to 7.5, and it may not be done running.
“This game’s going off no less than 7.5, this thing may go to 9,”Avello said. “This thing’s going up. There is nobody interested in betting Jacksonville after they saw them play (Sunday). They were home against a Buffalo Bills team that is in pro football’s middle of the pack and they had a rough time with them.”
Wiseguys, however, may be interested in the dog – if they have the stomach to watch their money ride on Blake Bortles.
“It feels like above 7 is a Jacksonville take in this game, but you get Blake Bortles,” Salmons said.
New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings (-4, 44.5) - (FOX, 4:40 p.m. ET)
The weekend’s best game on paper opened Minnesota -3.5 at the Westgate, but it didn’t take long for the line to settle at -4 market-wide. It may go higher before game time.
“The Vikings are very public. The Vikings have treated the bettors very well this year (11-5 ATS), and I don’t think they’ve forgotten that,” Salmons said. “I think the public will push this. I wouldn’t be surprised if this game closes 4.5 or even 5.”
And since this is the last game of the weekend, books will likely be facing plenty of teaser and money-line parlay risk tied to the favorite.
“The last game of a four-game NFL weekend, you’re always rooting for the underdog, so we definitely want to stay on the high side of this game,” Salmons said.
NFL
Long Sheet
Divisional Round
Saturday, December 13
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ATLANTA (11 - 6) at PHILADELPHIA (13 - 3) - 1/13/2018, 4:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 1-1 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 1-1 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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TENNESSEE (10 - 7) at NEW ENGLAND (13 - 3) - 1/13/2018, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 12-23 ATS (-13.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) as a favorite of 10 or more points over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 27-8 ATS (+18.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 27-8 ATS (+18.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 26-8 ATS (+17.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 20-6 ATS (+13.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games off a win against a division rival over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 18-4 ATS (+13.6 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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NFL
Long Sheet
Divisional Round
Sunday, December 14
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JACKSONVILLE (11 - 6) at PITTSBURGH (13 - 3) - 1/14/2018, 1:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 105-76 ATS (+21.4 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 1-0 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
JACKSONVILLE is 1-0 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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NEW ORLEANS (12 - 5) at MINNESOTA (13 - 3) - 1/14/2018, 4:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) in all games this season.
MINNESOTA is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) in all lined games this season.
MINNESOTA is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 24-8 ATS (+15.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in dome games this season.
MINNESOTA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in games played on turf this season.
MINNESOTA is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) off a win against a division rival over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) revenging a loss against opponent over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 1-0 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 1-0 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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NFL
Divisional Round
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Trend Report
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Saturday, December 13
ATLANTA @ PHILADELPHIA
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games on the road
Philadelphia is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home
Philadelphia is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Atlanta
TENNESSEE @ NEW ENGLAND
Tennessee is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tennessee's last 7 games when playing on the road against New England
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tennessee
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Tennessee
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NFL
Divisional Round
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Trend Report
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Sunday, December 14
JACKSONVILLE @ PITTSBURGH
Jacksonville is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Jacksonville is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games
Pittsburgh is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
NEW ORLEANS @ MINNESOTA
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New Orleans's last 7 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
New Orleans is 12-3 SU in its last 15 games
Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Minnesota is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games
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NFL Divisional Round biggest betting mismatches
Monty Andrews
In two games since taking over the lead role from injured DeMarco Murray, Titans RB Derrick Henry has racked up 308 rushing and receiving yards and a pair of scores on a whopping 54 touches.
Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles (+3, 41.5)
Falcons' turnover troubles vs. Eagles' ball-hawking defense
The Atlanta Falcons are two wins away from a Super Bowl return - and the quest for a second consecutive appearance in the NFL title game continues Saturday against a host Philadelphia Eagles team playing without its biggest weapon. Quarterback Carson Wentz is out for the season with a knee injury, leaving the fate of the Eagles’ season in the hands of backup Nick Foles. But it isn't all doom and gloom for Philadelphia, which has a significant advantage in the turnover department.
Atlanta did a lot of things right this season, and carried them over into last weekend's 26-13 triumph over the Los Angeles Rams in its wild-card encounter. But forcing turnovers has been an area of weakness for the Falcons, who were one of only four NFL teams to record single-digit fumble recoveries (eight) and interceptions (eight). Atlanta did well to take care of the ball during the regular season - losing just 18 turnovers for a minus-2 differential - but will need to be better if it hopes to get back to the Super Bowl.
Perhaps the Falcons will learn a thing or two from the Eagles, who received plenty of attention for their terrific offense but were also a force on the defensive end of the football, ranking fourth in the league in total turnovers forced with 31 (19 interceptions, 12 recovered fumbles). They also ranked fourth in the NFL in turnover differential at plus-11 - and in a game that's expected to be a close one, winning the turnover battle could be enough for the Eagles to end Atlanta's shot at an NFC title repeat.
Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots (-13.5, 47)
Dynamic Derrick Henry vs. Patriots' putrid run defense
Between a spread of nearly two touchdowns and news of internal strife involving owner, head coach and franchise player, the New England Patriots might have to work a little harder to gain bettors' confidence ahead of this Saturday's divisional round encounter with the Tennessee Titans. And that isn't all the Patriots need to be concerned about, as they look to contain a Titans running game that could make this one a little too close for comfort despite the lofty spread.
People are still talking about Marcus Mariota's three-touchdown performance in last week's stunning 22-21 comeback victory over Kansas City, but it wouldn't have been possible without Henry, who carved through the Chiefs' defense for 156 rushing yards and a touchdown in the win.
In two games since taking over the lead role from injured DeMarco Murray, Henry has racked up 308 rushing and receiving yards and a pair of scores on a whopping 54 touches.
It's easy to ignore how poor the Patriots' run defense was, considering how well Tom Brady and Co. performed on offense. But bettors can't ignore the fact that New England surrendered a stunning 4.7 yards-per-carry average in the regular season; only the Los Angeles Chargers had a higher YPC mark against.
Granted, teams only ran the ball 38.2 percent of the time against the Pats, but if the Titans keep things close enough for Henry to remain a factor, the Titan's unlikely Super Bowl run might continue.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7.5, 40.5)
Jaguars' red-zone prowess vs. Steelers' downfield struggles
There was nothing pretty about Jacksonville's first postseason win in more than a decade, but the Jaguars will gladly accept last weekend's 10-3 wild-card triumph over the visiting Buffalo Bills. The Jaguars' trademark defense won the day, limiting Buffalo to 263 total yards while forcing a pair of turnovers. Jacksonville is a healthy underdog for this weekend's encounter at Heinz Field - but if red-zone play is any indication, the Jaguars should be able to keep pace with the host Steelers.
Most people suspected the Jaguars would boast an impressive defense - and those people certainly weren't disappointed. But getting this far requires a more than passable offense - and Jacksonville overcame some early-season inconsistency to boast the league's second-best red-zone touchdown rate at 64.7 percent. Couple that with the Jaguars limiting opponents to a 37.9-percent success rate inside their 20-yard line - second-best in the league - and no team dominates the red zone like Jacksonville.
The Steelers have home-field advantage and a pair of dangerous offensive weapons in Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown - but none of that will matter if Pittsburgh can't make inroads in either red zone. The Steelers converted just 50.8 percent of their visits to the opponents' 20-yard line into six points - the 22nd-best rate in the league - and were even worse at defending the red zone, allowing touchdowns on 61.5 percent of opponent opportunities (28th). Big Ben has a big job ahead of him.
New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings (-4, 45)
Saints' third-down woes vs. Vikings' very good 3D showing
Quarterback playoff experience - or a lack thereof - is the focal point of Sunday's NFC divisional encounter between Drew Brees' New Orleans Saints and Case Keenum's Minnesota Vikings.
Brees, a former Super Bowl champion, will be making the 12th career post-season appearance in his 17th NFL season; Keenum will be making his first-ever playoff start. But third-down play is a major equalizer here, with the host Vikings owning a significant edge on both sides of the ball.
New Orleans rode a sensational running game to the fourth-highest scoring average in the league (28 ppg) - but when Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara weren't getting enough yardage on first and second down, the Saints struggled to score or extend drives.
New Orleans converted just 37.1 percent of its third-down opportunities, good for 20th overall. Things were even worse on the defensive end, with the Saints allowing teams to make good on 41.5 percent of third-down chances (27th overall).
That doesn't bode well at all for the visitors, as they face a Vikings unit that dominated third-down scenarios for nearly the entire season. It won't surprise anyone that Minnesota held foes to an absurd 25.2-percent success rate on third downs during the regular season - the best mark in the NFL.
But despite playing without their No. 1 quarterback and running back to start the season, the Vikings made good on better than 43.5 percent of third-down situations - and repeating the feat Sunday will likely mean a win.
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Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots (-13.5, 48)
Amid the background of a reported rift between the owner, coach and star quarterback, the reigning Super Bowl champion New England Patriots host the Tennessee Titans on Saturday night. The Patriots have hoisted the Lombardi Trophy in two of the past three seasons and look to become the first team to win back-to-back titles since they accomplished it in 2003-04.
New England, the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC, dealt with a rare off-the-field distraction when ESPN detailed a power struggle between coach Bill Belichick, quarterback Tom Brady and owner Robert Kraft -- a report the team disputed. "The reputation that Coach tries to get us to have is just ignore the noise -- ignore the noise from the outside and I feel like that's what myself and a lot of other players have been doing," Patriots star tight end Rob Gronkowski said. While Brady has 25 playoff wins under his belt, the upstart Titans will arrive in Foxborough fresh off their first postseason win since 2003 -- stunning the Kansas City Chiefs 22-21 after trailing by 18 points at halftime. Tennessee, which lost three straight before beating Jacksonville in Week 17 to clinch a playoff slot, has not won at New England since 2003, when the franchise was still located in Houston.
TV: 8:15 p.m. ET, CBS.
LINE HISTORY: The Patriots opened as massive 13.5-point home favorites and that number has yet to move. The total hit betting boards at 47 and has been bet up slightly to 48. Check out the complete line history here.
WHAT SHARPS SAY: "The Titans journey to Foxborough following last week’s stunning comeback win at Kansas City hoping they can reverse an ugly playoff trend that has found the last four teams to knock off the Chiefs in the postseason only to 0-4 SUATS the following games. The good news is Tennessee QB Marcus Mariota is 3-2 Su and 4-1 ATS adjacent .666 or greater foes in games i which the Titans sports a .500 or greater record. Meanwhile, New England is 18-0 SU and 12-6 ATS against AFC South opponents since 2010, but QB Tom Brady is only 2-3 ATS in his NFL career as double-digit chalk in the playoffs." - Covers Experts' Marc Lawrence.
WEATHER REPORT: Clear skies and cool temperatures are in the forecast for Foxboro on Saturday evening. The temps will dip down to the low 20's with cross-winds between 8 and 10 miles per hour.
INJURY REPORT:
Titans - G Quinton Spain (Probable, Back), CB Logan Ryan (Probable, Ankle), RB DeMarco Murray (Out, Knee), LB Aaron Wallace (I-R, Back), CB LeShaun Sims (I-R, Hamstring), DL DaQuan Jones (I-R, Bicep), QB Alex Tanney (I-R, Foot), WR Tajae' Sharpe (I-R, Foot), LB Victor Ochi (I-R, Knee).
Patriots - DL Alan Branch (Probable, Knee), WR Chris Hogan (Probable, Shoulder), RB James White (Probable, Ankle), RB Rex Burkhead (Probable, Knee), LB Marquis Flowers (Questionable, Illness), LB Kyle Van Noy (Questionable, Calf), DL Eric Lee (Questionable, Ankle), RB Mike Gillislee (Doubful, Knee), DT Vincent Valentine (Questionable, Knee), WR Malcolm Mitchell (Questionable, Knee), OL Marcus Cannon (I-R, Ankle), OL Tony Garcia (I-R, Illness), OL Andrew Jelks (I-R, Knee), DB Nate Ebner (I-R, Knee), TE Martellus Bennett (I-R, Shoulder), LB Dont'a Hightower (I-R, Pectoral), LB Shea McClellin (I-R, Concussion), LB Harvey Langi (I-R, Back), DL Keionta Davis (I-R, Neck), CB Cyrus Jones (I-R, Knee), WR Julian Edelman (I-R, Knee), DE Derek Rivers (I-R, Knee).
ABOUT THE TITANS (10-7 SU, 9-7-1 ATS, 9-8 O/U): Quarterback Marcus Mariota threw for more interceptions (15) than scoring passes (13) this season, but he guided Tennessee to three long touchdown drives in the second half, including a TD pass to himself at Kansas City. Mariota also rushed eight times for 46 yards but the Titans' best hopes are to feed backup running back Derrick Henry, who punished the Chiefs for 156 yards and a score on 23 carries. Tight end Delanie Walker had a team-high 74 catches while Rishard Matthews and Eric Decker added 53 and 54, respectively. Tennessee is 25th against the pass (239.3 yards) but tied for fifth in the league with 43 sacks.
ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (13-3 SU, 11-5 ATS, 7-9 O/U): Brady put up his usual flashy numbers, leading the league with 4,577 yards and tossing 32 touchdowns versus eight interceptions, but he had just six scoring passes and five picks over the past five games. Dion Lewis has rushed for at least 92 yards in four of his past six games and scored five times in the past three, and should get some help with the expected returns of Rex Burkhead and James White from injury. Gronkowski and speedster Brandin Cooks each went over 1,000 yards and combined for 15 touchdowns for New England's top-ranking offense (394.2 yards). The Patriots limited 10 of their last 12 opponents to 17 points or fewer.
TRENDS:
* Titans are 7-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Patriots are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 playoff games.
* Under is 9-2-1 in Titans last 12 Saturday games.
* Over is 7-0-1 in Patriots last 8 Divisional Playoffs games.
* Titans are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
COVERS CONSENSUS: The Covers public is siding with the home favorite New England Patriots at a rate of 54 percent and the Over is getting 55 percent of the totals action on Covers.
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