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NFL Wild Card opening line report: Sharp action moves lines early
"We know that the Panthers are one of the most enigmatic teams in the league, and we know that the Saints may not be the team they are perceived to be."
A wild ending to Week 17 of the NFL season led to a late change in the roster of 12 playoff teams, eight of which will be on the field next weekend for the wild card playoff round. Patrick Everson checks in on the opening lines and early action, with insights from Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.
Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars (-7.5)
Buffalo got a late Christmas gift from the Cincinnati Bengals, who scored a last-minute touchdown to knock Baltimore out of the playoffs and put the Bills (9-7 SU, 9-6-1 ATS) into the postseason. Buffalo did its part Sunday by beating Miami 22-16 as a 2.5-point road favorite, then waited out the Bengals-Ravens game, with Baltimore’s loss sending the Bills to the playoffs for the first time since 1999.
Jacksonville already had the AFC’s No. 3 seed locked up prior to Sunday, and though the squad had plenty of betting support in Vegas, it didn’t translate to the field. The Jaguars (10-6 SU, 9-7 ATS) lost a 15-10 slog at Tennessee as a 2.5-point underdog.
Cooley said early sharp money came in on No. 6 seed Buffalo, dropping the line to Jags -7.
“This feels like a high number, and some on the team wanted to see a much lower spread,” Cooley said. “We’ll see what Blake Bortles and that Jags offense is really made of here. Smart money feels like an under play on the total, and the betting public won’t be terribly interested in this one overall. The Bills are a value play that will garner pro money.”
To Cooley’s point on the under, Bookmaker.eu opened the total at 41, and it was quickly bet down to 40 for this 1 p.m. ET Sunday kickoff.
Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5)
Tennessee needed a Week 17 win to reach the playoffs, and ugly as it may have been, Mike Mularkey’s troops got the job done. The Titans (9-7 SU, 8-7-1 ATS) snapped a nearly season-killing three-game SU skid by beating Jacksonville 15-10 as a 2.5-point chalk to nab the No. 5 seed.
AFC West champ Kansas City couldn’t move up from the No. 4 seed, but that didn’t prevent Andy Reid’s squad from beating a hapless Denver unit. The Chiefs (10-6 SU and ATS) notched a 27-24 victory as a 3-point road ‘dog, despite resting quarterback Alex Smith and several other starters.
Cooley was nonplused by Tennessee, but the Titans did see early sharp action, taking the line from K.C. -7.5 to -7 for this 4:30 p.m. ET Saturday meeting.
“Our ratings have the Titans as the worst team in the playoffs,” Cooley said. “The Chiefs have certainly been uninspiring during the second half of the season, but we’re going to have trouble attracting Tennessee money here. Like the other AFC matchup, it’s definitely not the sexiest, and we’ll have ample teaser and parlay liability with both of the favorites.”
Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Rams (-6)
Defending NFC champion Atlanta had to win in Week 17 to ensure the No. 6 seed in the NFC. The Falcons (10-6 SU, 7-9 ATS) put the clamps on Carolina in a 22-10 victory laying 5 points at home.
Third-seeded Los Angeles (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS) already had the NFC West locked up heading into Week 17 and rested quarterback Jared Goff and running back Todd Gurley, among others. So it wasn’t a huge surprise that the Rams lost to Jimmy Garoppolo and late-surging San Francisco, 34-13 as a 6-point home pup.
“We know that we’ll see solid Atlanta money from the public, given the star power on the team, but this isn’t your older brother’s Rams bunch,” Cooley said. “We do expect this to be bet down, but at the end of the day, L.A. is multiple pegs higher in the power ratings. We should get solid two-way action from the sharps and squares at this number.”
Indeed, the number was bet down quickly for this 8:15 p.m. ET Saturday contest, with early sharp action on the visiting Falcons taking the line from L.A. -6 to -4.5.
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-5.5)
New Orleans ended up as the NFC South champion, but didn’t exactly end on the strongest note while falling from the No. 3 seed to No. 4 in Week 17. The Saints (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS) went to Tampa Bay as a 6-point fave and lost on a last-minute TD pass 31-24.
Carolina could have taken advantage of that and claimed the division title and a home wild card game, but couldn’t get enough offense in its finale. The Panthers (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS) fell to Atlanta 22-10 catching 5 points on the road.
“Given how this series played out during the regular season, the average bettor might expect a number closer to a touchdown,” Cooley said, alluding to New Orleans’s 34-13 road win over Carolina on Sept. 24 and the Saints’ 31-21 home repeat performance a month ago. “But we know that the Panthers are one of the most enigmatic teams in the league, and we know that the Saints may not be the team they are perceived to be.”
Still, the Saints got a little early shove from bettors, taking them from -5.5 to -6 for Sunday’s 4:30 p.m. ET clash.
NFL
Long Sheet
Week 17
Saturday, December 6
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TENNESSEE (9 - 7) at KANSAS CITY (10 - 6) - 1/6/2018, 4:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 11-23 ATS (-14.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 13-26 ATS (-15.6 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.
KANSAS CITY is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in playoff games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
TENNESSEE is 1-0 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
TENNESSEE is 1-0 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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ATLANTA (10 - 6) at LA RAMS (11 - 5) - 1/6/2018, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 31-52 ATS (-26.2 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
ATLANTA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) against NFC West division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
LA RAMS is 184-231 ATS (-70.1 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 184-231 ATS (-70.1 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 84-120 ATS (-48.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
LA RAMS is 132-182 ATS (-68.2 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS is 143-183 ATS (-58.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
LA RAMS is 62-96 ATS (-43.6 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
LA RAMS is 68-98 ATS (-39.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 1-0 against the spread versus LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 1-0 straight up against LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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Sunday, December 7
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BUFFALO (9 - 7) at JACKSONVILLE (10 - 6) - 1/7/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 12-25 ATS (-15.5 Units) in road games off a win against a division rival since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 2-0 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
JACKSONVILLE is 1-1 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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CAROLINA (11 - 5) at NEW ORLEANS (11 - 5) - 1/7/2018, 4:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 113-84 ATS (+20.6 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
CAROLINA is 65-42 ATS (+18.8 Units) revenging a loss against opponent since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 3-3 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
NFL
Wildcard Round
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Trend Report
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Saturday, December 6
TENNESSEE @ KANSAS CITY
Tennessee is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Tennessee is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 6 games at home
Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
ATLANTA @ LA RAMS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing LA Rams
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Rams's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Rams's last 5 games when playing Atlanta
Sunday, December 7
BUFFALO @ JACKSONVILLE
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
Buffalo is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Jacksonville
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 5 games when playing Buffalo
Jacksonville is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
CAROLINA @ NEW ORLEANS
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Carolina's last 7 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Carolina's last 7 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New Orleans's last 7 games when playing at home against Carolina
NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Wild Card weekend
Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs (-9, 44.5)
Titans’ red zone defense vs. Chiefs’ red zone offense
KC head coach Andy Reid is known to fumble the timeout/challenge dynamic, but one of the Chiefs’ most glaring shortcomings is in the red zone. Kansas City ranks 29th in touchdown conversion once it gets inside the 20-yard line with just 42 percent of its chances ending in end zone celebrations.
Tennessee’s defense ranks inside the top 10 for lowest red zone TDs surrendered this season and the unit allowed the fewest rushing touchdowns (five) on the year.
Kansas City owns a league best 4.7 yards per carry average, but that’s based more of the first five weeks of the season when Kareem Hunt was taking the NFL by storm. The rookie running back averaged 6.3 yards in his first five games and 3.9 from Week 6 to Week 16.
Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Rams (-6.5, 48.5)
Rams’ second half defense vs. Falcons’ second half offense
Just like Tiger Woods from a decade ago, the Los Angeles Rams are used to playing in front on Sundays. The Rams lead the league in scoring at 29.9 points per game – more than double their average from last season – and most of that damage came in the first and third quarters.
Los Angeles’ defense is able to get after opposing quarterbacks once the score differential dictates a heavy percentage of pass plays. Aaron Donald and Co. held their foes to 8.8 second-half points per game which ranks as the fourth best second half scoring defense in the league.
The Falcons made a habit of scoring early but then struggling to put up points as the games progressed. About 56 percent of Atlanta’s season points were scored in the first 30 minutes of games and the squad averaged just 3.2 points per third quarter.
Anyone who watched the Falcons play this year knows their offensive execution hasn’t been at the same level since Steve Sarkisian took over as the OC – especially late in games.
Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars (-9, 39.5)
Jaguars’ passing defense vs. Bills’ passing offense
There was a reason the Bills coaching staff and management wanted to see what their offense would look like with Nathan Peterman running the show - and not just to bring back the J. Peterman references. His disastrous start – which included five first half interceptions – overshadows Tyrod Taylor’s ugly passing numbers. Taylor passed for 2799 yards and averaged just 6.66 yards per pass attempt.
Only the Chicago Bears averaged fewer passing yards per game than the Bills at 176.6 and Buffalo finished second last in pass completions per game. The Bills’ top target is a lumbering tight end (Charles Clay) which probably explains why they finished last in the league in yards after catch (1230).
Jacksonville flexes its defensive muscle most when opponents turn to the air. The Jags allowed league-low 169.9 passing yards per game, finished with the second most sacks and were No. 2 in team interceptions with 21.
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-6.5, 48.5)
Saints’ passing offense vs. Panthers’ passing defense
Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara caught all the headlines in the Big Easy this season after the Saints finished with a top five rushing attack for the first time under head coach Sean Payton. That’s not to say New Orleans can’t chuck the ball around the field with veteran quarterback Drew Brees.
The Saints finished fifth in passing yards gained per game at 261.8 and led the league in passer completion percentage with Brees connecting on 72 percent of his pass attempts.
Carolina’s defense excels against the run but struggles with the ball in the air. The Panthers allowed a league-worst 300.3 passing yards per contest in the last three weeks of the season.