Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Monday 10/1/18
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos Preview and Predictions 10-01-2018 in NFL
NFL Previews 28th September 2018 by Gracenote
Chiefs vs. Broncos Preview and Predictions
by Gracenote on 09/28/2018
Three games into his first full season as a starter and second-year quarterback Patrick Mahomes already has bumped Peyton Manning from the NFL record books. Mahomes looks to continue his blistering start to the campaign and keep his team perfect when the Kansas City Chiefs host the Denver Broncos on Monday night in a matchup of longtime AFC West rivals.
The Chiefs are the league's highest-scoring team behind Mahomes, who became the first quarterback in league history to throw 13 touchdown passes in the first three games of the season. "He's a great quarterback, he can make all the throws, quick, athletic, young," Broncos linebacker Von Miller told reporters. "He's got everything you want." Mahomes also has yet to throw an interception and already was named AFC Offensive Player of the Week on two occasions for Kansas City, which has won five consecutive matchups against Denver. The Broncos, who won their first two games by a total of four points, will try to bounce back from a 27-14 loss at Baltimore last week in which they surrendered 20 unanswered points.
TV: 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: Chiefs -4.5. O/U: 54.5
ABOUT THE CHIEFS (3-0): Mahomes threw for 314 yards and three touchdowns - all in the second quarter - in last week's 38-27 home win over San Francisco, the third time in as many weeks Kansas City has scored at least 38 points. Explosive wide receiver Tyreek Hill finally was held in check and kept out of the end zone, but tight end Travis Kelce picked up the slack with eight catches for 114 yards. Kareem Hunt, who led the league in rushing as a rookie in 2017, is averaging 3.2 yards per carry but did record a pair of 1-yard TD runs. The Chiefs have struggled on the other side of the ball, ranking last in yards allowed (474) and 30th in points surrendered (30.7).
ABOUT THE BRONCOS (2-1): Case Keenum signed a two-year deal with Denver after a breakout season in which he led Minnesota to the NFC Championship Game, but he already has been intercepted five times - just two fewer than his total for the entire 2017 campaign. Emmanuel Sanders is the team's leading receiver with 19 receptions and Demaryius Thomas has 16, but Denver's best hope may be leaning on the rookie tandem of running backs Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman, who have accumulated 350 yards for the league's fourth-ranked rushing attack. Denver will need to generate pressure against Mahomes with a group led by former Super Bowl MVP Miller, who is tied for the NFL lead with four sacks.
EXTRA POINTS
1. Miller has registered eight sacks and 11 tackles for loss in his last eight contests against the Chiefs.
2. Hill has scored four touchdowns (two rushing, one receiving and one kick return) in three games versus Denver.
3. The Broncos lost TE Jake Butt to a torn ACL suffered in Thursday's practice.
PREDICTION: Chiefs 30, Broncos 23
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Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs Preview and Predictions 10-01-2018 in MLB
MLB Previews 30th September 2018 by Gracenote
Brewers vs. Cubs Preview and Predictions
by Gracenote on 09/30/2018
After meeting 19 times during the 162-game season, the Chicago Cubs and the visiting Milwaukee Brewers will clash one more time Monday at Wrigley Field to decide the National League Central championship. The winner will claim the division title and the top seed in the NL playoffs, while the loser will host the Colorado Rockies or Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL Wild Card Game Tuesday.
The Cubs took over sole possession of first place on Aug. 1 and led the Brewers by as many as five games in early September, but Milwaukee closed the regular season on a tear. The Brewers went 19-7 in September and won their final seven games, putting up double-digit run totals three times during the streak. Neither team will be surprised in game 163 - the Cubs lead the season series 11-8, but the Brewers won four of six meetings in September. "It's good to know what you'll be facing," Cubs outfielder Kyle Schwarber told reporters. "You've seen these guys multiple times. It's up to us to be able to execute. I think the common theme in playoff games is execution. That makes the little things matter. I'm sure that's what it's going to be (Monday) - little things will matter, and it'll be a fun game."
TV: 1:05 p.m. ET, ESPN
PITCHING MATCHUP: Brewers TBD vs. Cubs LH Jose Quintana (13-11, 4.09 ERA)
Brewers manager Craig Counsell didn't immediately announce a starter Sunday. Right-hander Jhoulys Chacin (15-8, 3.56 ERA) is up next in the rotation, but the Brewers could opt to save him for the Wild Card Game or the NL Division Series opener. Counsell opted for a bullpen game in a critical contest at St. Louis last week and could do the same Monday.
Despite an uneven campaign, Quintana has matched a career-high for wins. The 29-year-old Colombian's last win came against the Brewers on Sept. 11, but he has allowed two or fewer runs in seven of his last eight outings. Quintana is 4-1 with a 2.17 ERA in six starts against Milwaukee this season.
WALK-OFFS
1. Chicago 2B Daniel Murphy is 16-for-42 during a 10-game hitting streak, his longest since joining the Cubs.
2. Brewers CF Lorenzo Cain is 10-for-31 during a seven-game hitting streak.
3. Cubs INF Javier Baez is the first player in club history with at least 40 doubles, 30 homers, and 20 stolen bases in a season.
PREDICTION: Cubs 5, Brewers 3
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Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Preview and Predictions 10-01-2018 in MLB
MLB Previews 30th September 2018 by Gracenote
Rockies vs. Dodgers Preview and Predictions
by Gracenote on 09/30/2018
Teams that look to carry over the offensive production from their final regular-season contests clash when the Colorado Rockies visit the Los Angeles Dodgers on Monday afternoon for a one-game playoff to decide the National League West title. The Dodgers swept three from San Francisco over the weekend while scoring 28 runs, including 15 on Sunday, and Colorado won nine of its last 10 contests after a 12-0 rout of Washington in Sunday's finale.
The winner advances to host the NL East champion Atlanta Braves in the opener of the best-of-five Division Series on Thursday and the loser settles for playing in the Wild Card Game on Tuesday at the Milwaukee Brewers or the Chicago Cubs. "Obviously it's not do or die," Los Angeles manager Dave Roberts told reporters, "but obviously it's a must-win game. To win the game and to get a couple days off, and to host a division series, is very important." Two young hard-throwing right-handed pitchers will take the mound Monday when Los Angeles hands the ball to Walker Buehler and the Rockies counter with German Marquez, who has two wins and a no-decision in three starts against the Dodgers this season. Colorado's Nolan Arenado went deep twice Sunday, giving him an NL-most 37, and Manny Machado takes a nine-game hitting streak (12-for-36) into the contest for Los Angeles, which has won 12 of 19 games in the season series.
TV: 4:09 p.m. ET, ESPN
PITCHING MATCHUP: Rockies RH German Marquez (14-10, 3.76 ERA) vs. Dodgers RH Walker Buehler (7-5, 2.76)
Marquez won his last two starts, including Wednesday when he permitted three hits and one walk over seven scoreless innings against Philadelphia. The 23-year-old Venezuelan has registered 11 or more strikeouts in five of his last six outings and boasts 221 over 191 1/3 frames this season. Joc Pederson is 3-for-10 with two homers versus Marquez, who is 2-0 with a 3.19 ERA in five career starts against the Dodgers.
Buehler recorded four quality starts in five opportunities during September, but managed only a 1-1 record in that stretch despite a sparkling 1.95 ERA. The 24-year-old Kentucky native, who owns 148 strikeouts over 130 2/3 innings, held Arizona to two runs over six innings in his last start and has lost only once since Aug. 1 -- at Colorado on Sept. 8. Arenado and Carlos Gonzalez are each 3-for-10 against Buehler, who is 0-1 with a 2.61 ERA in five starts versus Colorado in 2018.
WALK-OFFS
1. Los Angeles has won at least 90 games for the sixth straight season, matching the streak of the Brooklyn Dodgers (1951-56) for the franchise record.
2. Colorado CF Charlie Blackmon hit for the cycle Sunday, going 4-for-5 with three RBIs, and has a team-high five homers against the Dodgers this season. Arenado has gone deep four times versus Los Angeles in 2018.
3. Los Angeles OF Yasiel Puig is 21-for-48 with five homers versus the Rockies this year.
PREDICTION: Dodgers 5, Rockies 4
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September 30, 2018
By Kevin Rogers
LAST WEEK
The Chiefs (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS) have put together the most impressive start through three weeks of the season by beating the Chargers, Steelers, and 49ers. Kansas City’s offense continued to click in last Sunday’s 38-27 victory over San Francisco as the Chiefs topped the 38-point for the third time this season. Patrick Mahomes tossed three touchdown passes in the second quarter alone for Kansas City, while moving his season total to 13 touchdowns compared to zero interceptions.
Mahomes is leading this Kansas City squad to plenty of touchdowns (16), while the Chiefs have kicked only two field goals in their three wins. Last year’s rookie sensation Kareem Hunt has struggled to rack up yards through three games (173), but the running back found the end zone twice against San Francisco. Kansas City covered each of the first two weeks in the underdog role, while cashing as a 5 ½-point favorite against San Francisco for the club’s second consecutive season with a 3-0 start.
The Broncos (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) suffered their first loss of the season at Baltimore after picking up consecutive home wins over Seattle and Oakland. Denver scored 14 quick points in the first quarter but was held scoreless in the final three quarters in a 27-14 setback in rainy Baltimore as a 5 ½-point underdog.
Quarterback Case Keenum put together an unimpressive effort in his third start with the Broncos by throwing for 192 yards, while getting intercepted once. Emmanuel Sanders rushed for a 35-yard touchdown to give the Broncos a 14-7 advantage, but couldn’t post another score for the final 53 minutes. The loss was the eighth in nine tries on the road since Vance Joseph took over as head coach in 2017.
MILE HIGH TIMES
If the Broncos are playing at home in the first four weeks of the season, you can pretty much mark down a “W.” Dating back to 2013, Denver has won 15 consecutive games at home in games during the first four weeks, including the early victories this season against Seattle and Oakland. The Broncos have covered 11 times in this stretch as several of the non-covers came as heavy favorites when Peyton Manning was the man under center. This is the third time the Broncos are listed as an underdog in this situation, winning outright against the Panthers in 2016 and over the Cowboys in 2017.
REID IT AND WEAP
Under head coach Andy Reid, the Chiefs have been a fantastic team to back on the road against AFC West foes. Since 2015, Kansas City owns a 9-1 record in this situation, including an opening week victory over Los Angeles. The only loss in this stretch came at Oakland last season on the final play of a 31-30 setback, but the Chiefs have compiled a 5-1 ATS mark as a favorite.
SERIES HISTORY
The Broncos won five consecutive meetings with the Chiefs from 2013 through 2015, capped off by the famous Thursday night comeback at Arrowhead Stadium in which Denver scored two late touchdowns to stun Kansas City. However, the Chiefs have turned the tide in the series by capturing five straight matchups, including sweeps the last two seasons.
The Chiefs cruised past the Broncos in a Monday night affair last October at Arrowhead, 29-19 to cash as seven-point favorites. Denver turned the ball over five times, while Chiefs’ kicker Harrison Butker booted five field goals in the victory. Kansas City held off Denver in Week 17 at Mile High, 27-24 in Mahomes’ first NFL start, playing in place of the resting Alex Smith. Although Mahomes didn’t throw a touchdown pass, the Chiefs posted 379 yards of offense, while grabbing their third straight victory in Denver.
TOTAL TALK
Heading into Week 3, only four teams cashed the OVER in each of the first three games. The Chiefs were among that group, while the Broncos have finished UNDER the total in back-to-back contests since their high-scoring affair against the Seahawks. Dating back to 2015, the OVER has hit in five of six meetings between Kansas City and Denver, but none of those games saw a total above 42.
LINE MOVEMENT
The Chiefs opened up as 4 ½-point favorites at the Westgate Superbook, but that number has dropped to four at several books and even down to 3 ½ at offshore outfit 5Dimes. The total sits at a whopping 54 ½, the highest total for Denver since finishing UNDER 50 at New Orleans in 2016.
GAME PROPS – Courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas Superbook
Total Gross Passing Yards - Patrick Mahomes
OVER 295 ½ (-110)
UNDER 295 ½ (-110)
Total Touchdown Passes – Patrick Mahomes
OVER 2 ½ (+115)
UNDER 2 ½ (-135)
Total Receiving Yards – Tyreek Hill
OVER 74 ½ (-110)
UNDER 74 ½ (-110)
Total Completions – Case Keenum
OVER 23 (-110)
UNDER 23 (-110)
Total Touchdown Passes – Case Keenum
OVER 1 ½ (-110)
UNDER 1 ½ (-110)
Will Royce Freeman score a touchdown?
YES (EVEN)
NO (-120)
HANDICAPPER’S CORNER
NFL expert Joe Nelson checks in on this AFC West matchup and says that the ground game will be critical for a win, “Despite playing with a lead nearly the entire season, the Chiefs have only 310 rushing yards on 3.9 yards per carry as Denver can expect an edge on the ground in this matchup. The Broncos are fifth in the NFL with 5.2 yards per carry and third in the NFL with 153 rushing yards per game. The Broncos also have allowed just 3.3 yards per rush on the season for the second best run defense in the NFL with Kansas City 30th in yards per rush allowed at 5.2.”
From the turnover perspective, Nelson points out that the Chiefs in spite of their undefeated mark are not forcing many takeaways, “The Chiefs had one of the best turnover margins in the NFL last season at +15, but are just +1 this season while the Broncos have managed to start 2-1 despite five turnovers this season with a -2 margin after being second worst in the NFL last season at -17. The Broncos have a suspect resume with -9 scoring differential on the season as they won a pair of very close games at home to start the season including a great comeback vs. Oakland.”