NFL betting news, trends, odds and predictions for Sunday, December 31, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
NFL opening line report: Setting lines for Week 17 is always a challenge for oddsmakers
Patrick Everson
“Early sharp money is on Atlanta, but it’s doubtful this will get too out of hand, considering the Panthers still have something to play for.”
Sportsbooks would love to have all the lines up already for the final week of the NFL’s regular season, but enough uncertainties exist in pivotal games that some numbers will have to wait until Tuesday. Still, Patrick Everson has some insights on where the lines will land in Week 17, thanks to Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (no line)
The line for this NFC East clash is on hold since Philadelphia played in the Week 16 Monday nighter against Oakland. The Eagles (13-2 SU, 10-5 ATS) were awful on their home field, but connected on a last-minute field goal, then picked up a Raiders fumble on one of those last-second lateral plays and scored a touchdown to secure a 19-10 victory as a 10-point favorite.
With that win, Philly clinched home-field advantage for as long as it stays in the NFC playoffs.
Dallas (8-7 SU, 7-7-1 ATS) was eliminated from postseason contention on Sunday, despite being on its home field and with Ezekiel Elliott back in the lineup. The Cowboys dominated the yardage stats against Seattle, but had three turnovers while forcing none, and that was a huge key in a 21-12 loss as a 4.5-point home chalk.
“This one won’t be as glamorous as it would’ve been had Dallas won in Week 16, but it will still deliver decent action given the teams,” Cooley said. “We have to expect Nick Foles will still be playing considering his limited time in the system, and the Eagles are deep, so them limiting starters doesn’t hurt them too much. Philadelphia deserves to be favored here, as it is just a much better team all around.”
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-3)
Atlanta is clinging to the sixth and final NFC playoff spot, with its Week 16 result putting the defending NFC champion in the likely position of having to win this week to stay in that spot. The Falcons went to New Orleans as a 5.5-point underdog Sunday and couldn’t get the offense going in a 23-13 setback.
Carolina is currently in the wild-card spot of No. 5 in the NFC, but could still win the South Division and, though unlikely, get as high as the No. 2 seed. The Panthers (11-4 SU, 9-6 ATS) barely escaped as a 10-point home fave against Tampa Bay on Sunday, with a last-minute Cam Newton touchdown securing a 22-19 victory.
“Obviously, the Falcons have everything on the line in this one,” Cooley said. “Early sharp money is on Atlanta, but it’s doubtful this will get too out of hand, considering the Panthers still have something to play for.”
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (no line)
Jacksonville is stuck at the No. 3 slot in the AFC, regardless of what happens in Week 17. The Jaguars (10-5 SU, 9-6 ATS) had won seven of eight heading into San Francisco on Sunday, but lost a shootout 44-33 laying 4 points.
However, thanks to Tennessee also losing in Week 16, the Jags clinched the South Division. The Titans (8-7 SU, 7-7-1 ATS) fell to the Los Angeles Rams 27-23 as a 5.5-point home pup, their third straight defeat, yet still managed to hang on to the AFC’s No. 6 seed. The Chargers and Bills remain in contention to swipe that spot from the Titans.
Cooley said Bookmaker.eu was waiting until Tuesday to post this line, recognizing Jacksonville might not field all its best players.
“It doesn’t feel like the Jags are really in a position to sit players, considering the youth on that team, but you never know,” Cooley said. “Tennessee’s season is on the line. The Titans should be favorites given the situation.”
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (no line)
Los Angeles continues to be a major surprise this season and currently occupies the No. 3 seed in the NFC race, already owning the West Division title. The Rams (11-4 SU, 9-6 ATS) held off Tennessee 27-23 Sunday, failing to cash as 5.5-point road favorites.
The Jimmy Garoppolo era is off to a strong start in San Francisco, with the team 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS since he took over as signal-caller. In Week 16, the 49ers (5-10 SU, 8-7 ATS) had their biggest scoring output of the season, beating Jacksonville 44-33 as a 4-point home ‘dog.
“I definitely don’t expect L.A. to rest any of its young guns, as the Rams need experience and rhythm,” Cooley said. “That said, the public loves Jimmy G and the Niners right now, so we have to be wary of that and the fact that the Rams are in limbo of sorts.”
Cooley said the Rams will certainly be favored, but the number could be a little tighter if it looks like any key players are resting this week.
NFL
Long Sheet
Week 17
Sunday, December 31
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CINCINNATI (6 - 9) at BALTIMORE (9 - 6) - 12/31/2017, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 3-2 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 3-2 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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GREEN BAY (7 - 8) at DETROIT (8 - 7) - 12/31/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 67-40 ATS (+23.0 Units) in December games since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 72-44 ATS (+23.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 62-38 ATS (+20.2 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
DETROIT is 30-51 ATS (-26.1 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
DETROIT is 134-173 ATS (-56.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 3-2 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 3-2 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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BUFFALO (8 - 7) at MIAMI (6 - 9) - 12/31/2017, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 71-99 ATS (-37.9 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
MIAMI is 45-66 ATS (-27.6 Units) in December games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 3-2 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 3-2 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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CAROLINA (11 - 4) at ATLANTA (9 - 6) - 12/31/2017, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 113-83 ATS (+21.7 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
CAROLINA is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
CAROLINA is 58-36 ATS (+18.4 Units) in December games since 1992.
CAROLINA is 54-34 ATS (+16.6 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 3-2 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 3-2 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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NEW ORLEANS (11 - 4) at TAMPA BAY (4 - 11) - 12/31/2017, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) as a favorite this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 3-2 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 3-2 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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JACKSONVILLE (10 - 5) at TENNESSEE (8 - 7) - 12/31/2017, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 30-52 ATS (-27.2 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 15-33 ATS (-21.3 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 10-23 ATS (-15.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
TENNESSEE is 2-2 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
TENNESSEE is 3-2 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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NY JETS (5 - 10) at NEW ENGLAND (12 - 3) - 12/31/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) as a favorite of 10 or more points over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 26-8 ATS (+17.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 26-8 ATS (+17.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 25-8 ATS (+16.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 19-6 ATS (+12.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 64-40 ATS (+20.0 Units) in December games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 17-4 ATS (+12.6 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 62-37 ATS (+21.3 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
NY JETS are 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 3-1 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 4-1 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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HOUSTON (4 - 11) at INDIANAPOLIS (3 - 12) - 12/31/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 2-2 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 3-2 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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CLEVELAND (0 - 15) at PITTSBURGH (12 - 3) - 12/31/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in all games this season.
CLEVELAND is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in all lined games this season.
CLEVELAND is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) as an underdog this season.
CLEVELAND is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points this season.
CLEVELAND is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
CLEVELAND is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 6-19 ATS (-14.9 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) revenging a loss against opponent over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses this season.
CLEVELAND is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 91-65 ATS (+19.5 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 12-27 ATS (-17.7 Units) as a favorite of 10 or more points since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 3-1 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 5-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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WASHINGTON (7 - 8) at NY GIANTS (2 - 13) - 12/31/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 62-94 ATS (-41.4 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 3-2 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 3-2 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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CHICAGO (5 - 10) at MINNESOTA (12 - 3) - 12/31/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 14-34 ATS (-23.4 Units) in road games in December games since 1992.
CHICAGO is 17-33 ATS (-19.3 Units) in road games in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
MINNESOTA is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) in all games this season.
MINNESOTA is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) in all lined games this season.
MINNESOTA is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in dome games this season.
MINNESOTA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in games played on turf this season.
MINNESOTA is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) off a win against a division rival over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 3-2 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 4-1 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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DALLAS (8 - 7) at PHILADELPHIA (13 - 2) - 12/31/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 38-61 ATS (-29.1 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 3-2 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 3-2 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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OAKLAND (6 - 9) at LA CHARGERS (8 - 7) - 12/31/2017, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 34-60 ATS (-32.0 Units) in December games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 33-57 ATS (-29.7 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
LA CHARGERS is 3-2 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
OAKLAND is 4-1 straight up against LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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ARIZONA (7 - 8) at SEATTLE (9 - 6) - 12/31/2017, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 68-39 ATS (+25.1 Units) in December games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 2-2 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 2-2 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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KANSAS CITY (9 - 6) at DENVER (5 - 10) - 12/31/2017, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 4-1 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 4-1 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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SAN FRANCISCO (5 - 10) at LA RAMS (11 - 4) - 12/31/2017, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS is 184-230 ATS (-69.0 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 184-230 ATS (-69.0 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 84-119 ATS (-46.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
LA RAMS is 132-181 ATS (-67.1 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS is 143-182 ATS (-57.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
LA RAMS is 31-50 ATS (-24.0 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS is 62-95 ATS (-42.5 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 4-1 against the spread versus LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-2 straight up against LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
NFL
Week 17
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Trend Report
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Sunday, December 31
CHICAGO @ MINNESOTA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Chicago's last 8 games when playing Minnesota
Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Chicago
Minnesota is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games
GREEN BAY @ DETROIT
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Green Bay's last 11 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay's last 6 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 6 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Detroit's last 8 games at home
HOUSTON @ INDIANAPOLIS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Houston's last 14 games when playing Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing at home against Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 5 games
NY JETS @ NEW ENGLAND
NY Jets is 7-1-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing New England
The total has gone OVER in 6 of NY Jets's last 8 games when playing on the road against New England
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against NY Jets
New England is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games
WASHINGTON @ NY GIANTS
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Washington's last 14 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Giants's last 6 games
NY Giants is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Washington
DALLAS @ PHILADELPHIA
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Dallas's last 8 games
Dallas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Philadelphia is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games
CLEVELAND @ PITTSBURGH
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Cleveland's last 14 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cleveland
JACKSONVILLE @ TENNESSEE
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 6 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games
Tennessee is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Jacksonville
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tennessee's last 6 games when playing at home against Jacksonville
CAROLINA @ ATLANTA
Carolina is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games
CINCINNATI @ BALTIMORE
Cincinnati is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Baltimore
Cincinnati is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Baltimore is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games at home
Baltimore is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
BUFFALO @ MIAMI
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing Miami
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Buffalo's last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Miami's last 10 games
NEW ORLEANS @ TAMPA BAY
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of New Orleans's last 9 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
New Orleans is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Tampa Bay's last 9 games when playing at home against New Orleans
OAKLAND @ LA CHARGERS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 5 games
Oakland is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 5 games
LA Chargers is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
SAN FRANCISCO @ LA RAMS
San Francisco is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
San Francisco is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Rams
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Rams's last 5 games at home
LA Rams is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
ARIZONA @ SEATTLE
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Arizona's last 14 games
Seattle is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games at home
Seattle is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games
KANSAS CITY @ DENVER
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Kansas City's last 7 games
Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games
NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 17
As Armadillo adds matchups to this report, I'll add them to this reply.
Week 17 games
Bengals (6-9) @ Ravens (9-6)— Ravens win and they’re in; Baltimore won five of last six games, is 3-2-1 as a home favorite this year- they’re 5-2 SU at home, losing to Steelers/Bears. In their last eight games, Ravens outscored opponents 125-61 in 2nd half. Bengals lost three of last four games, are 3-3 as road underdogs, losing away games by 3-15-16-4-27 points. Baltimore (+3) blanked Bengals 20-0 to open season, using five takeaways (+4) and a 154-77 rushing edge, but Ravens are just 2-6 in last eight series games- Bengals won two of last three visits here. Favorites are 6-4 vs spread in AFC North games this year. Over is 8-3 in last 11 Raven games, under is 4-2 in Cincy’s last six road games.
Packers (7-8) @ Lions (8-7)— Detroit is 2-3 in its last five games, 3-1 as home favorite, winning by 12-14-10 points, but they’re only 3-4 SU at home, which is why they’ll miss playoffs. Packers are 3-7 since Rodgers first got hurt; they’re 3-4 on road, 3-2 as road underdogs. Green Bay is -6 in turnovers in its last two games, with no takeaways. Detroit (-2.5) won first meeting 30-17 at Lambeau in Week 9; they threw for 353 yards (10.4 ypa). Teams split last eight series games; Packers won last two visits here, 27-23/31-24. Favorites are 5-4-1 vs spread in NFC North games this season. Last three Lion games stayed under the total; four of last five Green Bay games went over total.
Bills (8-7) @ Dolphins (6-9)— Buffalo (-3) held on to beat Miami 24-16 at home two weeks ago; Bills were +3 in turnovers, converted 7-15 on 3rd down. Buffalo needs win here and lot of help to make playoffs for first time since ’99. Bills are 3-2 in last five games, 2-5 on road, 0-1 as road favorites- their road wins were at Falcons/Chiefs. Miami lost seven of its last nine games; but they’re 4-2 SU at home, 2-0-1 as home underdogs, losing to Bucs/Raiders. Buffalo is 6-3 in last nine series games; teams split last four games played here. Home teams are 8-1-1 vs spread in AFC East games this season. Over is 7-1-1 in Dolphins’ last nine games, 7-3 in Buffalo’s last ten games.
Panthers (11-4) @ Falcons (9-6)— Atlanta clinches playoff berth with win; Carolina clinches NFC South with win and Saints loss. Panthers won their last three games, scoring 27 ppg; they are 5-2 on road, 3-1 as road underdogs, with losses at Bears/Saints. Falcons won five of last seven games, are 4-3 at home SU/ATS- they scored only 10 points on four red zone drives in Superdome Sunday. Panthers (-1) won first meeting 20-17 in Week 9, outrushing Falcons 201-53 wth a 16-yard edge in field position. Falcons won three of last four series games; Panthers lost 20-13/48-33 in last two visits here. Home favorites are 6-3 vs spread in NFC South games this year. Five of last six Carolina games went over total; last four Atlanta games stayed under.
Saints (11-4) @ Buccaneers (4-11)— New Orleans clinches NFC South and home game next week with win here. Saints are 11-2 since an 0-2 start, but losses came in last two road games; they’re already in playoffs. In its last three games, NO is just 9-33 on 3rd down. Saints are 3-3 on road, 2-0 as road favorites. Buccaneers lost five in row, 10 of their last 11 games; they’re 3-4 at home, 2-2 as home underdogs. Saints (-7) drilled Tampa Bay 30-10 in Week 9, blocking punt for TD, outgaining Bucs 407-200. NO won 10 of last 12 series games; they’re won four of last five visits here, losing 16-11 here LY. Home teams are 7-3 vs spread in NFC South games this year, 1-0 as underdogs. Under is 6-2 in Bucs’ last eight games, 5-1 in Saints true road games.
Jaguars (10-5) @ Titans (8-7)— Titans need win to make playoffs; they waxed Jacksonville 37-16 (-1.5) in Week 2, running ball for 179 yards with +2 turnover ratio- Titans had 17-yard edge in field position. Jaguars/Tennessee split season series the last eight years;. Jaguars lost last three visits here, by 2-3-14 points. Jaguars won seven of last nine games; they’re 4-3 on road, 2-3 as road favorites- they scored TDs on 12 of last 13 red zone drives. Tennessee lost last three games; they’re 5-2 at home, losing to Raiders, Rams. Seven of their last nine games were decided by 5 or less points. Favorites are 7-3 vs spread in AFC South games this year. Four of last five Jaguar games went over the total.
Jets (5-10) @ Patriots (12-3)— New England needs win to lock up #1 seed in AFC. Patriots won, covered last four home games. Under is 7-3-1 in their last eleven games. In their last six games. NE outscored opponents 88-35 in second half. Jets lost three in row, eight of last 10 games- they are 2-2-1 as road underdogs, losing away games by 9-25-3-5-23-12 points, beating Cleveland for only road win. Pats (-9.5) won first meeting 24-17 in Week 6; both teams had 23 first downs and converted over 50% on 3rd down. Patriots won three in row, 11 of last 13 series games; Jets are 0-6 in Foxboro since winning a 2010 playoff game here. Home teams are 8-1-1 vs spread in AFC East games this season.
Texans (4-11) @ Colts (3-12)— Short week for Houston after Christmas loss vs Steelers; they’ve now lost five games in row, are 0-3-1 vs spread in last four road games, losing away games by 3-3-26-7-11-38 points. Indy lost its last six games, is 1-4 vs spread in last five; Colts are 1-3 vs spread in last four games as home underdogs. Colts (+7) won 20-14 in Houston in Week 9, first game after Texans QB Watson went down for year. Houston was scoreless in two trips to red zone. Texans won three of last four series games; they won last two visits here, 16-10/22-17. Favorites are 7-3 vs spread in AFC South games this year. Over is 8-4 in last dozen Houston games; last seven Colt games stayed under the total.
Browns (0-15) @ Steelers (11-3)— Cleveland is 1-30 last two years, 3-12 vs spread this season, 1-6 as road underdogs- in their last four games, Browns were outscored 54-10 in second half. Steelers can get #1 seed in AFC with win and Jets’ win in NE (yeah, sure). Pittsburgh won nine of last ten games, is 3-3 as home favorites- their last three home games were decided by total of seven points. Pitt blocked punt for TD in 21-18 (-8.5) Week 1 win over the Browns; total yardage was just 290-237- Steelers ran ball for only 35 yards, had 144 penalty yards. Steelers won five in row, 13 of last 15 series games; Browns lost their last 13 games here. Favorites are 6-4 vs spread in AFC North games this year. Over is 4-1 in Pittsburgh’s last five home games.
Redskins (7-8) @ Giants (2-13)— Washington is 3-2 in its last five games; they’re 2-5 on road, 0-1 as road favorite- they lost last three road games, by 3-24-17 points. Redskins are 8 of last 34 on 3rd down. Giants lost last five games, are 1-6 at home, 2-4 as home underdogs- their one home win was over Kansas City in OT. Washington (-7) beat the Giants 20-10 in first meeting on a Thursday, holding NJ to 86 passing yards- Giants were 2-14 on 3rd down, averaged 2.8 ypa. Washington won three of last four series games, but they’ve lost four of last five visits here. Favorites are 7-3 vs spread in NFC East games this season. Four of last five Redskin games stayed under total, as have five of Giants’ last six games.
Bears (5-10) @ Vikings (12-3)— Vikings can get #1 seed in NFC with win here and Eagle loss to Dallas. Minnesota won 10 of last 11 games; they’re 5-1 as home favorites this year- their one home loss was 14-7 to Detroit. In last six games, Viking foes are 17-75 on 3rd down. Chicago won two of last three games, outscoring opponents 42-7 in 2nd half; Bears are 3-4 as road underdogs. Minnesota (-3.5) won first meeting 20-17, despite averaging only 3.9 ypa; Vikings were +2 in turnovers- they’re 5-1 in last six series games. Bears lost last five visits to Twin Cities, by 7-3-4-21-28 points. Favorites are 5-4-1 in NFC North games this season. Three of last four Viking games stayed under total; four of last five Chicago games stayed under.
Cowboys (8-7) @ Eagles (13-2)— Dallas won three of last four games, but laid egg at home vs Seattle LW and is out of playoffs. Cowboys are 5-2 on road, 1-3 vs spread as underdogs so far this season. Eagles are 5-2 as home favorites this year they’re 12-1 in last 13 games, winning last three, by 8-5-3 points. Philly (-4) outscored Dallas 30-0 in 2nd half, beat Cowboys 37-9 in Week 11, running ball for 215 yards, holding Cowboys without a TD, with a +4 turnover ratio. Road team won six of last nine series games; Dallas won four of last five visits here. Favorites are 7-3 vs spread in NFC East games this season. Seven of last eight Cowboy games stayed under total; four of last six Philly games stayed under.
Raiders (6-9) @ Chargers (8-7)— Will be weird atmosphere; not sure which team will have more fans. Bolts can still get in playoffs with win here and some help; they beat Oakland 17-16 (+3.5) in Week 6, with +2 turnover ratio- Raiders didn’t score on their only red zone trip. Oakland won four of last five series games; they won 37-29/19-16 in last two visits to San Diego. Raiders lost their 3rd straight game 13-10 in frigid Philly Monday night, so short week here; they’re 2-3 as road underdogs this season. Chargers won won five of last six games, are 2-2 as home favorites- they won last four games in Carson. Home teams are 6-2-1 vs spread in AFC West games this year. Nine of last ten Charger games stayed under total.
Cardinals (7-8) @ Seahawks (9-6)— Seattle gained TOTAL of 285 yards on 108 plays in their last two games, but they still get in playoffs with win and an Atlanta loss; Hawks lost three of last four home games, are 1-5 as home favorites this year. Seahawks beat Arizona 22-16 (-6) in first meeting, despite converting only 3-13 on 3rd down, 108 penalty yards. Road team is 5-1-1 in last seven series games; Cardinals won three of last four visits here. Arizona is 3-2 in its last five games, but is 0-4 vs spread as road underdogs, losing away games by 12-27-10-5 points, with wins at Colts/49ers. Home teams are 1-7-1 vs spread in NFC West games this season. Under is 7-4 in last 11 Seahawk games, 3-0 in Arizona’s last three games.
Chiefs (9-6) @ Broncos (5-10)— Denver is 2-9 in its last 11 games after starting year 3-1, with wins over Colts/Jets; they’re 4-3 at home, 1-3 as home favorites. Broncos did run ball for 372 yards in last two games. Lynch is expected to start at QB for Denver, which insists on running QB tryouts during season. Chiefs won last three games after a 1-6 skid; they lost last four road games. KC already clinched AFC West; they’ve got playoff game next week. Chiefs (-7) beat Denver 29-19 in first meeting, with five takeaways (+3) and 16-yard edge in field position- they started five drives in Denver territory. Chiefs won last four series games; they won 29-13/30-27 in last two visits here. Home teams are 6-2-1 vs spread in AFC West games this year. Six of Chiefs’ last seven games stayed under total, as have five of last six Bronco games.
49ers (5-10) @ Rams (11-4)— Rams won NFC West, have home playoff game next week, would expect some key guys to get time off here. 49ers won five of last six games after 0-9 start with Garoppolo now 6-0 as an NFL starter; Niners are 5-2 as road underdogs- they averaged 7+ ypa in each of last four games. LA won huge road game in Seattle/Nashville last two weeks to reach playoff for first time in 13 years. Rams (-2.5) won first meeting 41-39 in Week 3, averaging 10.4 ypa- they had eight plays of 20+ yards. Teams split last six meetings; three of last four were decided by 3 or less points. Home teams are 1-7-1 vs spread in NFC West games this season. Under is 5-2 in 49ers’ road games; Rams’ last four games went over total.