Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Thursday 10/4/18
Patriots back in betting form as double-digit faves in NFL Week 5 odds
Patrick Everson
Tom Brady had plenty to pump his fist about Sunday, when New England hammered Miami 38-7. That led to the Patriots opening as 10.5-point Week 5 home favorites against the Colts.
Week 5 of the NFL season puts the Thursday night prime-time spotlight on the defending AFC champion. We check in on the opening lines and early action for a quartet of contests, with insights from John Murray, sportsbook manager at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook.
Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (-10.5)
New England dropped two in a row and didn’t look good in doing so, at Jacksonville and at Detroit. But the Patriots (2-2 SU and ATS) looked like their old elite selves in Week 4, hammering previously unbeaten Miami 38-7 as a 6.5-point home favorite.
Indianapolis has quarterback Andrew Luck back this season, but his presence isn’t showing up much in the win column through the first month. The Colts (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS) staged a big comeback to force overtime against Houston on Sunday, but ultimately lost 37-34 as a 1-point home underdog.
“We opened this one Patriots -10.5, which is up 3 points from our lookahead number (last week) of Patriots -7.5,” Murray said. “New England looked like the defending AFC champion, and the Colts are coming off an overtime loss and have to go on the road in a short week. Tough spot for Indianapolis here.”
That said, the line ticked down a half-point to 10 on Sunday night.
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NFL
Long Sheet
Week 5
Thursday. October 4
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INDIANAPOLIS (1 - 3) at NEW ENGLAND (2 - 2) - 10/4/2018, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 30-12 ATS (+16.8 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 30-12 ATS (+16.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 29-12 ATS (+15.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 21-7 ATS (+13.3 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 23-8 ATS (+14.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 20-5 ATS (+14.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in home games against AFC South division opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 67-45 ATS (+17.5 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
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NFL
Week 5
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Trend Report
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Thursday. October 4
Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Indianapolis is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Indianapolis's last 12 games
Indianapolis is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Indianapolis is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 5 games on the road
Indianapolis is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New England
Indianapolis is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing New England
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Indianapolis's last 8 games when playing New England
Indianapolis is 4-7-1 ATS in its last 12 games when playing on the road against New England
Indianapolis is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against New England
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing on the road against New England
New England Patriots
New England is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 games
New England is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
New England is 15-4 SU in its last 19 games
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of New England's last 19 games
New England is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games at home
New England is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 6 games at home
New England is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
The total has gone OVER in 7 of New England's last 8 games when playing Indianapolis
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England's last 5 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
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GRONK LISTED AS DNP
Tight end Rob Gronkowski was listed as “did not practice” on New England’s injury report on Monday ahead of its Thursday night matchup where it hosts Indianapolis. Gronk pulled himself from Sunday’s game against Miami with an ankle injury and it remains to be seen whether he’ll be able to recover on a short week. Gronk’s absence would obviously be a blow to the Patriots offense but one-way Brady and co. will help deal with the possible loss is with the return of Julian Edelman.
Brady, for one, is very excited, saying this about Edelman on Monday: “He gets open so quick, I think that's the thing about Julian, his explosiveness in the routes, in and out of breaks. It's very comforting for a quarterback to see a guy get open really early in a route.”
The Pats looked great offensively in Week 4, but Brady still hasn’t found a receiver he can consistently trust. That will change on Thursday. Expect Brady to look Edelman’s way early and often in a game with a total set at 51.5 and jump on the Over for Edelman’s receptions total when the market opens later in the week.
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Preview: Colts at Patriots
New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady will see a familiar face re-enter the huddle as trusted wideout Julian Edelman returns from a four-game suspension for Thursday's game against the visiting Indianapolis Colts. Edelman, who was banned for violating the NFL's performance-enhancing substances policy, rolled up a career-best 1,106 receiving yards in 2016 before a preseason knee injury caused him to miss the 2017 campaign.
"I know he was itching to go and he wants to get down there and show everyone that he's ready to go," said Brady, who struggled to find chemistry with his wide receivers in the first three contests before former Colt Phillip Dorsett and Cordarrelle Patterson each reeled in a touchdown reception in a 38-7 romp over Miami on Sunday. A three-time NFL Most Valuable Player, Brady ranks outside the top 20 in completion percentage (64.4 percent; 21st among QBs), passing yards per game (230; 24th) and yards per attempt (6.8; tied for 27th). Colts quarterback Andrew Luck rebounded from a pair of subpar performances to complete 40 of 62 passes for 464 yards and four touchdowns in Sunday's 37-34 overtime setback to Houston. Luck, however, owns an 0-5 career mark versus New England and has completed just 48 percent of his pass attempts and thrown nine interceptions in three games at Foxborough, Mass.
TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, FOX, NFL Network. LINE: Patriots -10. O/U: 51.5
ABOUT THE COLTS (1-3): Luck likely is to be without star wideout T.Y. Hilton (chest, hamstring) on Thursday and will look to distribute the ball to a wide receiver corps considering of Ryan Grant, Chester Rogers and Zach Pascal. The former top overall pick has found a convenient outlet in running back Nyhiem Hines (team-leading 22 catches), who led the club with nine receptions for 63 yards and two touchdowns last week. Eric Ebron has made the most of fellow tight end Jack Doyle's absence due to injury by reeling in a team-leading three touchdown receptions in his last four games. Indianapolis has gotten next-to-nil from its 29th-ranked ground game, however, with Jordan Wilkins leading the club with just 136 rushing yards.
ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (2-2): While Edelman is guaranteed to be in the huddle, Rob Gronkowski isn't a slam dunk to be by his side as the mammoth tight end deals with an ankle injury. The 29-year-old Gronkowski, who reportedly was absent from Tuesday's walk-through, leads the Patriots with 233 receiving yards in four games and his 17 catches are second on the team to versatile running back James White. Speaking of running backs, Sony Michel answered a pair of lackluster performances with a stellar one on Sunday, as he rushed 25 times for 112 yards and a touchdown. Michel became the second Patriots running back to eclipse 100 yards rushing in a game since 2016 -- joining Dion Lewis, who did it twice in 2017.
EXTRA POINTS
1. Indianapolis K Adam Vinatieri, a former Patriots legend, is nursing a sore groin and did not practice on Tuesday.
2. New England CB Stephon Gilmore shares the team lead with four passes defensed, although he doesn't have one in ether of his last two games.
3. Colts rookie LB Darius Leonard has an NFL-best 54 tackles while LB Kyle Van Noy leads the Patriots with just 20.
PREDICTION: Patriots 34, Colts 14
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ATS Trends
Indianapolis
Colts are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 Thursday games.
Colts are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games in Week 5.
Colts are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games.
Colts are 35-16 ATS in their last 51 games following a straight up loss.
Colts are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Colts are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 vs. AFC.
Colts are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
New England
Patriots are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Patriots are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games in Week 5.
Patriots are 8-2 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Patriots are 20-5-1 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Patriots are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
Patriots are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Patriots are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 vs. AFC.
Patriots are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
Patriots are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games following a ATS win.
Patriots are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games on fieldturf.
Patriots are 18-7 ATS in their last 25 games following a straight up win.
Patriots are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Patriots are 35-14-2 ATS in their last 51 games in October.
Patriots are 30-12 ATS in their last 42 games overall.
Patriots are 34-15-2 ATS in their last 51 home games.
Patriots are 35-16 ATS in their last 51 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
Patriots are 19-9 ATS in their last 28 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Patriots are 35-17 ATS in their last 52 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
OU Trends
Indianapolis
Under is 6-0 in Colts last 6 road games.
Under is 5-0 in Colts last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 8-1 in Colts last 9 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 8-1 in Colts last 9 games following a straight up loss.
Over is 6-1 in Colts last 7 games in Week 5.
Under is 11-2 in Colts last 13 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 10-2 in Colts last 12 games overall.
Under is 5-1 in Colts last 6 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
Over is 8-2 in Colts last 10 games in October.
Under is 8-2 in Colts last 10 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Colts last 5 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 8-2 in Colts last 10 vs. AFC.
Under is 8-2 in Colts last 10 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 6-2 in Colts last 8 games on fieldturf.
New England
Under is 4-0 in Patriots last 4 games in October.
Under is 7-0 in Patriots last 7 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
Under is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 Thursday games.
Under is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
Under is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 games on fieldturf.
Under is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 games in Week 5.
Over is 25-8 in Patriots last 33 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Over is 11-4 in Patriots last 15 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 8-3 in Patriots last 11 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 7-3 in Patriots last 10 vs. AFC.
Over is 7-3 in Patriots last 10 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 13-6 in Patriots last 19 games overall.
Over is 48-23 in Patriots last 71 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Head to Head
Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in New England.
Over is 8-0 in the last 8 meetings.
Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Underdog is 15-6-2 ATS in their last 23 meetings.
Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
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October 4, 2018
By Tony Mejia
Indianapolis at New England (-10, 51), 8:20 pm ET, FOX/NFLN
The Patriots bounced back from a loss in Jacksonville where they looked inferior on both sides of the ball by stomping out Miami’s illusions on Sunday.
For the second straight season, the Patriots have started 2-2, which has welcomed in the naysayers and attracts those eager to sprinkle dirt prematurely on Bill Belichick, Tom Brady and the most successful football franchise we’ve seen this century.
The months after losing to Philadelphia in Super Bowl have been filled with drama, acrimony and speculation over trade talk and the potential retirement of Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski. There have been no answers over why Malcolm Butler was scratched against the Eagles or why other popular players weren’t brought back. After Matt Patricia’s Detroit defense dominated New England on Sunday night in Week 3, all the noise started up again.
The Patriots needed to handle business last week to throw on the noise-canceling headphones, officially putting the past in the rear-view mirror now that we’re a month in and games are the primary focus.
New England avoided hearing all about how the sky is falling by dominating the Dolphins at Gillette Stadium in a game they entered in danger of falling three games behind the pace in the AFC East had they lost. Instead, they scored the game’s first 38 points, breaking things open in the second quarter behind a pair of Tom Brady touchdown tosses and a James White TD run, one of two scores on the day. Rookie RB Sony Michel supplied the exclamation point with a 10-yard fourth-quarter TD run and wound up with 112 yards on 25 carries. He’s carved out a major role, which is fitting since September ended with the emergence of a new cast of characters.
Beyond Michel’s emergence, Cordarrelle Patterson rattled off the big catch-and-run that was representative of exactly what the Patriots hoped he’d bring to the table with his blazing speed. Josh Gordon debuted and contributed. Even though he’s still working his way back from a hamstring injury, the attention he commands makes him an effective decoy even when he’s not getting the ball. Former Colts first-round pick Phillip Dorsett scored for the second time this season, joining Chris Hogan and White with multiple receiving touchdowns. Gronk found the end zone first to open the season but hasn’t scored since and is dealing with an ankle issue but was cleared to play on Thursday morning.
With Julian Edelman also returning from suspension to make his season debut, there’s no longer a responsible way to say that Brady lacks weapons. There may be new faces in play, but the argument can be made that Gordon’s acquisition gives him his most talented receiver since Randy Moss, while Patterson gives him his fastest target.
It’s easy to write that we should all forget about “Deflategate” as a driving force here, but there may still be some residue in play.
Although this is only the second meeting between these teams since the accusation that New England’s quarterback conspired to doctor footballs in the 2014-15 AFC Championship Game was levied, that’s ancient history now.
Consider who is involved here. Bill Belichick is a known grudge-holder. Brady doesn’t need a reason to run up a score, but he’s long been among the NFL’s most competitive performers and had to serve a four-game suspension in ’16. He hasn’t seen the Colts since. This will also be the first time the Colts come into Foxborough since the scandal, so you’re likely to see a fan base that scans the internet for slights to pack a little extra for an old accuser.
Indianapolis is far removed from the days where it could be counted among New England’s threats. The Colts are still bringing Andrew Luck back after missing all of last season, but he looked more like his old self in Sunday’s OT loss despite losing T.Y. Hilton to an in-game injury. Luck rallied the Colts from a double-digit fourth-quarter deficit despite working with the likes of Ryan Grant, Chester Rogers and newcomers at tight end (Eric Ebron, Mo Alie-Cox) and running back (Nyheim Hines, Jordan Wilkins).
Before Luck was injured, he was handing off to the legendary Frank Gore. He’s now working with a pair of rookies, who despite their talent, haven’t made life any easier from a continuity standpoint. This will be a learning experience for many of the Colts, who will be going through a short week situation – on the road, no less – for the first time.
Indianapolis is expected to be missing as many as seven starters and will be entering a venue where sympathy will be hard to find. Check out the injury report below for details. There’s a chance that we could see showers throughout this game and the potential for wind gusts of over 20 miles per hour exist, which could work to the Colts’ benefit in slowing New England down. Luck is 0-5 against Brady.
Indianapolis Colts
Season win total: 7.5 (Over +110, Under -130)
Odds to win AFC South: 7/1 to 10/1
Odds to win AFC: 45/1 to 50/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 100/1 to 100/1
New England Patriots
Season win total: 11 (Over -120, Under +100)
Odds to win AFC East: 1/4 to 1/5
Odds to win AFC: 7/2 to 7/2
Odds to win Super Bowl: 8/1 to 8/1
LINE MOVEMENT
The Patriots opened the regular season a 1-to-8 favorite to win the AFC East, which suggests an 88.9 percent chance of continuing their dominant run of 14 division titles in 15 years. Although the Dolphins got off to a great start and went up two games, New England's odds never really wavered, moving to 1/4 (80%) before improving following the weekend's conquest of the Miami. The Colts were the AFC South's biggest longshot to open the season at 4/1 and has seen that number reach 10/1 after a slow start.
The Patriots also opened as the AFC favorite (3/1) and the Super Bowl favorite (6/1) for the entire league. Kansas City (5/2) has supplanted the Pats as the AFC's top dog, both in the standings and for futures purposes. Only the L.A. Rams (9/5) and Kansas City (6/1) have better odds than New England (8/1) to win the Super Bowl. Indianapoilis has the same odds as the Browns (50/1) to win the AFC, better than only the Raiders (100/1), Jets (150/1) and Bills (500/1).
As far as this matchup is concerned, the Patriots were installed as a 8-point favorite when the Westgate's early numbers were announced but opened this week laying 10. There are a few 10.5's out there and we may see this dip to 9.5 in the offshore market. The total opened at 55.5 an quickly was bet down to 53/53.5 before settling in at 51. Team totals have been set up with the Patriots number at 31 and Indy's at 20.5.
New England is a massive -500 favorite on the money line, while Indianapolis will get you +400/+425 on your investment.
INJURY CONCERNS
Hilton's absence for Indianapolis will make the most noise but isn't the only issue that the eam will have to overcome. Starting corner Kenny Moore and backup Quincy Wilson will miss this game with concussions, while Nate Hairston (ankle) should play, possibly doing so only because the team is so thin in the secondary. Safety Clayton Geathers, one of the top tacklers, is questionable with a knee injury, while linebacker Darius Leonard is dealing with a knee issue.
Up front, Indy is hoping to have left tackle Anthony Castonzo make his season debut despite no practice time at all this season, so his availability is something to montior. Versatile Denzelle Good is out, away from the team due to the death of his brother earlier this week in South Carolina. Center Ryan Kelly, whose botched snap helped contribute to Sunday's loss, is questionable. Tight end Jack Doyle (hip) and RB Marlon Mack (hamstring) also remain sidelined.
The Patriots are in much better shape entering a game on a short week, but did have to put RB Rex Burkhead and rookie LB Ja'Whaun Bentley went on injured reserve. Tackle LaAdrian Waddle (illness) and corner Eric Rowe (groin) join Gronkowski (ankle) as being questionable. Defensive linemen Danny Shelton (elbow), Geneo Grissom (ankle) and Adam Butler (leg) are also all dinged up.
RECENT MEETINGS (New England 8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS last eight; OVER 7-2-1)
10/18/15 New England 34-27 at Indianapolis (NE -9.5, 54.5)
1/18/15 New England 45-7 vs. Indianapolis (NE -7, 52)
11/16/14 New England 42-20 at Indianapolis (NE +3, 57)
1/11/14 New England 43-22 vs. Indianapolis (NE -7, 51)
11/18/12 New England 59-24 vs. Indianapolis (NE -10, 55)
12/4/11 New England 31-24 vs. Indianapolis (IND +20.5, 48.5)
11/21/10 New England 31-28 vs. Indianapolis (IND +4.5, 50)
11/15/09 Indianapolis 35-34 vs. New England (NE +1.5, 48.5)
11/2/08 Indianapolis 18-15 vs. New England (NE +6.5, 44)
11/4/07 New England 24-20 at Indianapolis (IND +5, 56.5)
PROPS
Of the props available below at BetOnline.ag I'd ride the first score being a touchdown and will trust Indy's Adam Vinatieri to best his successor in New England, Stephen Gostkowski, for the game's longest field goal.
Team to reach 10 points first: (Patriots -240, Colts +200)
Team to reach 20 points first: (Patriots -330, Colts +270)
Team to score first: (Patriots -175, Colts +155)
Team to score last: (Patriots -140, Colts +120)
First score: (Touchdown -175, FG/Safety +155)
First turnover: (None +900, Fumble +165, INT -210)
Highest scoring half: 1st -120, 2nd + OT +100)
Total FGs made by both teams: (3.5, Over -110, Under -110)
Team with longest TD scored: (Patriots -185, Colts +160)
Team with longest FG made: (Patriots -140, Colts +120)
2-point conversion action: (Successful +280, No conversion/No attempt -340)
4th down conversion action: (Successful -300, No conversion/No attempt +250)
Will there be a defensive or special teams TD?: (Yes +180, No -220)
Will there be a kickoff return touchdown?: (Yes +1400, No -2500)
Will there be a 0 or 1-yard TD?: (Yes -125, No +105)
Will there be overtime: (Yes +1000, No -1500)
Will there be 3 straight scores by either team: (Yes -250, No +210)
NEXT WEEK'S NUMBERS POSTED
Westgate Vegas opens its advance lines for the following week on Tuesdays and Week 6 currently has the Colts liisted as a 1-point road underdog at the Jets. The Patriots will be back in the national spotlight, hosting the Chiefs on Sunday night for a showdown that's going to be among the season's most hyped. New England has been made a 3-point favorite.