Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Thursday 8/23/18
Thursday Night Football Preview (FOX, 8:00 p.m. ET)
Philadelphia Eagles vs Cleveland Browns
Week 3 of the preseason gets going with the defending champs visiting the lone winless team from a year ago as this will likely be the last time fans get to see many of their team's starters until the games start to count for real. That's probably a good thing for Philadelphia fans as they've had plenty of injury scares this entire preseason, and a lot of their projected starters will be held out for this contest too.
How that affects what we see from the Eagles on TNF remains to be seen, but I doubt we see the Eagles coaching staff push things too much for fear of another key body going down.
BetDSI.eu Odds: Cleveland (-3); Total set at 41.5
After making a run to the top overall seed in the NFC and parlaying that into a Super Bowl victory a year ago, the Philadelphia Eagles aren't about to rush things in the preseason just for the sake of getting better. The Eagles coaching staff has a great idea of what they've got in their roster and all the injuries they've suffered this summer are at least not long term in most cases and said players should be ready for September.
However, that same Eagles coaching staff would like to see a bit more effort and progress from the guys that are out there in the preseason as Philly has been blown out in both preseason games so far (albeit by some very good teams in Pittsburgh and New England) as they allowed 30+ points in both defeats. That's a bit of an indictment on this Eagles defensive unit, one that has suffered the fewest injuries on the team and one that came into the year with plenty of question marks as well. So with HC Doug Pederson already stating that he'd like to see his (healthy) starters play at least a half, I do believe we see the Eagles defense look much better than they have all preseason. Yet, the question is whether or not improved play by the Eagles defense will be enough for them to cover this spread.
Personally, I don't believe it will be as the Eagles offense is about as banged up as a unit can be. They are sending backup Nick Foles out there as a “starter” for the majority of the first half – a week after he narrowly missed a scary upper body injury himself – and they are only going to come into the game with two healthy RB's on the roster (Wendell Smallwood and Matt Jones). Neither of those guys are expected to get significant playing time once the games count for real, but they both could end up being the workhorses here.
The Eagles WR depth is still quite thin at this moment and after Foles nearly was lost for awhile last week, I expect plenty of hand offs and running plays from this Eagles team that's just looking to get through this 60 minutes as healthy as can be. Compare all that with a Cleveland team that's basically got ongoing competitions for starting roles at nearly every position and you've got to lay the -3 with the Browns or pass all together on the side.
The total is the wager I'm more interested in making though as with starters on both defensive units likely on the field for at least 30 minutes, points may turn out to be at a premium here. I've already touched on Philly's need to see some significant improvement on the defensive side of the ball which should show up here, but Cleveland's defense has been solid through two weeks as well and I don't see that changing either – especially with Philly's run-heavy, vanilla attack.
Cleveland is already 0-2 O/U in the preseason this year, yet, because of Philly allowing 30+ in both games, the majority of early action on this total (75%) has come in on the high side of this number. But this total has actually dropped a full point since opening at 42.5 despite all that action, and that's a reverse line move I simply can't ignore.
After last week's 19-17 loss at home to Buffalo cashed another 'under' ticket for the Browns, Cleveland is now on a 0-7 O/U run in home games during the preseason the past few years, and regardless of venue the last seven years during “dress rehearsal” Week 3 preseason games, the Browns as an organization are on a 1-4-2 O/U run with final scores averaging 36.8 points.
Seeing this game finish with about 37 points is where I've got this one pegged finishing, and all things considered (situation, trends, reverse line move) it's the best way to attack this game.
Odds per - BetDSI.eu
Best Bet: Under 41.5 points
Philadelphia Eagles vs Cleveland Browns Preview and Predictions
The Philadelphia Eagles are the defending Super Bowl champs, and obviously got off to a great start last season, but they have to be careful to get to the starting gate in one piece as regards the quarterback position. All signs right now are pointing to Carson Wentz being able to make the start, but he has only recently been cleared to practice, and not for contact, and won’t play in the pre-season. Coach Doug Pederson has to be very careful with Nick Foles, who got banged up a little against New England.
The Cleveland Browns are committed to Tyrod Taylor at quarterback, but at the same time, they have to get Baker Mayfield involved more with the actual offense they are going to use in the regular season, in the event his career as a starter has to begin earlier than expected. And in this "dress rehearsal" game, there might be an opportunity to give him the opportunity to open things up a little.
Last week the Eagles lost 37-20 in a Super Bowl "rematch" of sorts with the New England Patriots. The Browns lost 19-17 at home to the Buffalo Bills. Now, these squads will meet at FirstEnergy Stadium in Cleveland, in the only Thursday night game on the NFL pre-season schedule.
TV: FOX, 8 PM ET. LINE: Browns -4. O/U: 42
ABOUT THE EAGLES: The quarterback situation is starting to get somewhat intriguing. Nate Sudfeld, who got to play extended time in one game last season for the Eagles, went most of the way against the Patriots, and did well, completing 22 of 39 for 312 yards and three touchdowns. This was facilitated by a shoulder injury suffered by Foles, the Super Bowl MVP who lost the ball on a sack where New England scored a touchdown. Foles had quarterbacked the team for three series, during which time Philadelphia had only one first down. The injury, which was described as a shoulder strain, is not expected to keep him out of action very long. Wentz, who was lost for the 2017 season with a knee injury in a game against the Los Angeles Rams, is practicing with the team but it is still unknown as to whether he will be ready for the season opener. That is what makes Foles' status important, and why it was equally important to get Sudfeld a lot of snaps. But they'll have to keep him healthy too. One of the other QB's in camp is Joe Callahan, a graduate of Division III Wesley College, who played sparingly with the Green Bay Packers last season. The Eagles had 43 yards on 16 carries against the Pats and would probably like to be able to run the ball a little better in order to protect their quarterbacks. There were 51 passing attempts last week. The problem is that the Eagles have been dealing with some depth issues at running back because of injuries. Wide receiver Shelton Gibson is penciling himself in for a much more important role in the offense. He caught a 63-yard TD pass in the opener, had 90 yards in receptions against New England, and also added a 46-yard kickoff return. The secondary got a real workout last week from Tom Brady, who completed 19 of 26 passes with a pair of touchdowns.
ABOUT THE BROWNS: The development of Mayfield continues. Although his numbers haven't been off the charts (7-13 for 75 yards last week), the first overall draft pick has been impressive in terms of his ability to handle the offense. But he has not spent time with the first-team starters in an actual game situation, and that would seem to be useful if he is going to inherit the starting quarterback job at some point, which might happen if the Browns are pushed out of contention early. There is also a bit of a safety issue involved here as well. Remember that as it is, the Browns have to replace an all-time great left tackle in Joe Thomas, who retired. Now you have Mayfield playing with reserve offensive linemen. That's not the ideal situation. Shon Coleman, who was supposed to be Thomas' replacement, lost his job in camp, and then missed a block that got Mayfield sacked last Thursday. Austin Corbett, the second-round pick out of Nevada, has taken control at left guard and that could make Coleman expendable. Wide receiver Josh Gordon has returned to the team and is at practice, after getting some treatment for emotional issues and substance abuse. I know I want to see him in meetings and see what kind of shape he is in before I ever make a decision about trotting him out there," says head coach Hue Jackson. It looks as if the running game is in the midst of a significant upgrade. Carlos Hyde and Nick Chubb had a combined 117 yards for two TD's on 20 carries against Buffalo, and neither of those players was with the team last season. Duke Johnson, who has an element of explosiveness about him, will likely be a third-down back.
EXTRA POINTS
1. Philadelphia's Donnel Pumphrey, who finished his career at San Diego State as the FBS career rushing record-holder, won't play in this game because of a leg injury.
2. E.J. Gaines, who played with the Buffalo Bills last season and signed as a free agent with Cleveland, has a knee sprain that could severely jeopardize his ability to be ready for the regular season opener. Gaines was a good "get" for the defense, as he was rated #13 by Pro Football Focus in an analytical ranking.
3. Eagles cornerback Malcolm Jenkins, who you have probably been hearing a lot about with regard to his position on the National Anthem, stayed in the tunnel while it was played last week, rather than hold up his fist in protest as he did the week before. He did wear a T-shirt during warmups that read, "You're Not Listening."
PREDICTION: Browns 24, Eagles 16