NFL Betting News and Trends For Thursday 9/20/18

New York Jets vs. Cleveland Browns Preview and Predictions 09-20-2018 in NFL

NFL Previews 18th September 2018 by Gracenote
Jets vs. Browns Preview and Predictions

by Gracenote on 09/18/2018

The Cleveland Browns find themselves in an unfamiliar place after continually discovering painful - and often creative - ways to escape without a victory dating to the 2016 season. The beleaguered Browns, who are winless in their last 19 games (0-18-1), find themselves as the favored team at home for the first time since 2015 heading into Thursday's game against the New York Jets.

"Our players are not going to quit. ... Our guys have the grit and toughness. What we have to do is find a way to win," Cleveland coach Hue Jackson said on the heels of Zane Gonzalez misfiring on his second field-goal attempt and fourth overall in the waning seconds of Sunday's 21-18 setback at New Orleans. Gonzalez was given the boot in favor of former Miami castoff Greg Joseph on Monday before the Browns traded troubled wide receiver Josh Gordon to New England for a fifth-round pick in the 2019 NFL Draft. While top overall selection Baker Mayfield remains on the bench in Cleveland, No. 3 pick Sam Darnold became the youngest NFL player to eclipse 300 yards in a game in Sunday's 20-12 loss to the Dolphins. Coach Todd Bowles believes his team is in for a stern test with the Browns, saying that: "They're definitely not an easy out. The two last games they lost went down to a nail-biter at the end."

TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, NFL Network. LINE: Browns -3. O/U: 39.5

ABOUT THE JETS (1-1): Quincy Enunwa has proven to be Darnold's most trusted target with 13 receptions for 155 yards and a touchdown. Former Browns wideout/quarterback Terrelle Pryor had four catches for 84 yards versus Lions, matching the total number of receptions of Robby Anderson over the first two games. As for the favorite/underdog status, Pryor downplayed any notion that the players are buying into it. "It means nothing to me," Pryor said. "It means nothing to Cleveland; it means nothing to the Jets. Paper is paper. There are so many teams that are underdogs and they're coming out and beating guys. It really doesn't matter."

ABOUT THE BROWNS (0-1-1): Tyrod Taylor nearly ended Cleveland's long and winding road of failure by connecting with rookie Antonio Callaway on a game-tying 47-yard touchdown with 1:16 remaining the fourth quarter before the Saints booted the go-ahead field goal under one minute later. "It's big-boy football, and that's what we expect out of (Callaway) to do. You're going to hear a lot more out of him this year," said fellow wideout Jarvis Landry, who has at least five receptions in 19 consecutive contests. The 25-year-old Landry has recorded 90-plus yards and a touchdown in three of his last five encounters with the Jets, including his last such meeting while playing for Miami on Oct. 22.

EXTRA POINTS

1. New York RB Isaiah Crowell, who spent four seasons in Cleveland, answered a 102-yard, two-touchdown performance in his team's 48-17 rout of Detroit on Sept. 10 by being held to just 35 yards on Sunday.

2. Browns RB Carlos Hyde, who has scored a touchdown in four straight games dating to last season, rushed for career-high 193 yards while reeling in a scoring strike in his only career meeting versus the Jets.

3. New York S Marcus Maye, who is not expected to play as he nurses a foot injury, recorded his first career interception in his team's 17-14 win over Cleveland last season.

PREDICTION: Jets 20, Browns 16
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TNF - Jets at Browns
September 20, 2018
By Tony Mejia

N.Y. Jets at Cleveland (-3., 40), 8:20 pm ET, NFLN

How can a team that hasn't won a game since Christmas eve of 2016 be favored over a Jets (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) team that looks much improved?

The rationale is that these are fairly evenly matched sides squaring off with a short week of preparation that typically favors the home team. There's also the fact that if kicker Zane Gonzalez had done his job and made a few field goals, the Browns would be 2-0, owning wins over the Steelers and Saints. Instead, their not-so-lovely parting gifts are a tie and a demoralizing setback at the Superdome just four days ago.

Gonzalez has been waived, sabotaged by a groin pull Hue Jackson says he had no clue about before all the mishaps in New Orelans. There's a new kicker in town, not to mention a new belief that this team can actually win some games. Oddsmakers believe, placing the Browns (0-1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS) in a favorite's role for the first time since last Sept. 24, when they were a one-point 'chalk' at the Andrew Luck-less Colts.

Before that, you have to go back to Nov. 30 of '15 for the last time Cleveland was favored, laying six points against Baltimore. The Browns lost both those games and haven't won and covered a game where they entered as the favorite since Oct. 26, 2014.

Despite that little nugget, the betting public believes in the Browns too, according to the early betting action. Although No. 3 pick Sam Darnold's Monday night debut in a win over Detroit gained universal acclaim despite his first pass resulting in a pick-six, the rookie's Week 2 showing in a loss to Miami wasn't as impressive. Making his third pro start on just a few days rest may allow him to focus on keeping things simple or may ultimately prove too much to overcome.

New York was favored at home against Miami by its largest closing number (-3) since the 2015 regular-season finale and had covered four of five as a favorite before stumbling against the Dolphins. Miami led 20-0 at the break, Darnold was intercepted twice and the Jets fumbled four times, losing only one. Darnold will make mistakes since he's learning on the job, but being smarter with the football is definitely a priority as he heads the road again for his Thurday night debut and third game in 11 days.

The Dolphins loss was disappointing for New York for many reasons, starting with the fact that optimism was sky high for the home opener with a new franchise QB in place and the Jets came out flat. Darnold's first pick led to a score. A Robbie Anderson fumbled led to the next Dolphins touchdown.

As they tried getting back in the game, scoring to open the second half and then immediately getting the ball back on a sack and fumble recovery from Jordan Jenkins, Darnold threw his second pick in the end zone on the very next play.

Same old Jets?

Darnold did manage to throw for an NYJ rookie-record 334 yards, getting the ball out quickly and decisively. Miami was able to run out the final six minutes, converting on multiple third downs to keep its defense from having to even take the field again, so it will be interesting to see how the first few drives in this one go. Although everyone remembers that the Lions game became a blowout thanks to a 31-point third quarter, another slow start could be the continuation of a troubling trend.

The Browns may be in the same boat since they're still looking for their first first-half touchdown of the season. Fortunately, the defense has been on point as neither the Steelers nor Saints managed to do much early against Gregg Williams' blitz-heavy approach. The unit has forced five fumbles, picked off three passes and registered seven sacks, ranking first in the NFL in turnover margin (+6).

Since Myles Garrett has been getting pressure on his own, elite quarterbacks Ben Roethlisberger and Drew Brees, lock future Hall of Famers, have been sped up. Combined, those two have 33 years of professional experience. Darnold is playing his third game.

The Jets have plenty of experience game-planning for Tyrod Taylor given his time in the AFC East running the Bills offense and have had major issues containing his arm and his legs, losing three of five meetings. We'll see how the dual-threat fares against an old nemesis in his second outing as Browns starter.

Barring injury, don't expect to see No. 1 pick Baker Mayfield get out there since Taylor has done his best work late in games and proven that he gives the Browns their best chance to win, leading the team in rushing in addition to his 443 passing yards.

Although Cleveland was hoping that Josh Gordon would return to prominence as the team's top receiver, it traded him to New England on Monday after he injured his hamstring in an event that wasn't sanctioned, finally cutting ties with him and getting a conditional fifth-round pick in return. Jarvis Landy, rookie Antonio Callaway, slot receiver Rashard Higgins and tight end David Njoku are left as Taylor's main receiving weapons while vets Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson join rookie Nick Chubb in a talented backfield.

On paper, there's more talent on the Cleveland roster than on New York's 53, but that only goes so far when you haven't tasted victory in nearly 21 months. The Jets are looking for their first 2-1 start since 2015. They've beaten the Browns in five straight, covering each time. We should see a little wind and a few gusts, but for the most part, expect a clear night on the southern shore of Lake Erie.

New York Jets
Season win total: 6 (Over +110, Under -130)
Odds to win AFC East: 10/1 to 15/1
Odds to win AFC: 50/1 to 100/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 100/1 to 200/1

Cleveland Browns
Season win total: 6 (Over +100, Under -120)
Odds to win AFC North: 10/1 to 12/1
Odds to win AFC: 40/1 to 50/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 80/1 to 100/1

LINE MOVEMENT

Although Pittsburgh enters the week tied with Cleveland and Le'Veon Bell is set to miss another week, so the Westgate LV Superbook still has Pittsburgh (3/2) is still favored to win the AFC North with the Ravens right behind them at 11/5, up from the 4/1 they opened at. Cincinnati is the current leader at 2-0 and has moved from an opening number of 10/1 to win the AFC North to 2/1. The Browns are at 12/1, which is certainly good value since this division suddenly looks wide open and they're favored to move to 1-1-1 here.

The Jets came in ahead of only the Bills (20/1) when the season began as far as the AFC East is concerned, even with Miami at 10/1 while favored New England came in at 1/8. Despite losing to Jacksonville last week, the Pats haven't budged from 1/8 whle current leader Miami is up to 5/1. The Jets are now 15/1 and the hapless Bills are now 500-to-1, begging for some action.

In this Week 3 opener, the Browns were favored by 1.5 points last Wednesday when future lines went out via Westgate but the Browns moved to a 3-point chalk, which is where that number is curently most widely availableTere are a few shops where the Jets are getting 3.5 points. The total opened at 39 and has been bet up to 40.

If you're not looking to lay the field goal, Cleveland is around -160/-170 on the money line. New York is available at +140/+150. The team totals for Cleveland is in at 21, while the Jets are hovering around 18-19.

INJURY CONCERNS

That productive Browns defense again won't have talented LB Christian Kirksey (shoulder, ankle) unless the team reverses course and has ruled out DE Emmanuel Ogbah. Both missed the Saints game, so there's confidence that their production can be replaced..

It would be more difficult to replace athletic safety Damarious Randall, who already has a pick and a fumble recovery but is questionable with a heel issue. Rookie corner Denzel Ward had two interceptions in his debut and should overcome a hamstring injury to participate. Landry, Cleveland's top receiver, is questionable with knee pain but should also play.

The Jets are the healthier of these two teams and have definitely played the lighter schedue, so we'll see if that aids their chances of pulling out a road upset. Safety Marcus Maye (foot) and LB Josh Martin will miss another game and have been out of the lineup, but WR Quincy Enunwa Ithumb) and guard James Carpenter (foot) will play. Young receiver ArDarius Stewart has served out his suspension and is also available.

RECENT MEETINGS (N.Y. Jets 6-2 SU, 6-2 ATS last eight; UNDER 5-3)

10/8/17 N.Y. Jets 17-14 at Cleveland (NYJ -1.5, 41.5)
10/30/16 N.Y. Jets 31-28 at Cleveland (NYJ -2.5, 45.5)
9/13/15 N.Y. Jets 31-10 vs. Cleveland (NYJ -3.5, 39.5)
12/22/13 N.Y. Jets 24-13 vs. Cleveland (NYJ -1.5, 41.5)
11/14/10 N.Y. Jets 26-20 (OT) at Cleveland (NYJ -3.5, 37)
12/9/07 Cleveland 24-18 at N.Y. Jets (CLE -3.5, 47.5)
10/29/06 Cleveland 20-13 vs. N.Y. Jets (CLE -1.5, 37.5)
11/21/04 N.Y. Jets 10-7 at Cleveland (NYJ -1.5, 38)

ATS Trends
N.Y. Jets

Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.
Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games.
Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Jets are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Jets are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Jets are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. AFC.
Jets are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games on grass.
Jets are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

Cleveland

Browns are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Thursday games.
Browns are 17-36-1 ATS in their last 54 games following a straight up loss.
Browns are 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 games overall.
Browns are 9-21-1 ATS in their last 31 vs. AFC.
Browns are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS win.
Browns are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 home games.
Browns are 7-20-1 ATS in their last 28 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

OU Trends
N.Y. Jets

Under is 5-0 in Jets last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
Under is 4-0 in Jets last 4 vs. AFC.
Over is 4-0 in Jets last 4 games following a ATS loss.
Over is 5-0 in Jets last 5 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Jets last 5 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Jets last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Over is 7-2 in Jets last 9 games following a straight up loss.
Over is 16-5 in Jets last 21 games in Week 3.

Cleveland

Over is 5-0 in Browns last 5 games in Week 3.
Under is 6-1 in Browns last 7 Thursday games.
Under is 11-3 in Browns last 14 home games.
Under is 13-4 in Browns last 17 games on grass.
Over is 10-4 in Browns last 14 games in September.

Head to Head

Jets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Favorite is 8-0 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Cleveland.
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NFL
Long Sheet

Week 3

Thursday, September 20

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NY JETS (1 - 1) at CLEVELAND (0 - 1 - 1) - 9/20/2018, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 9-24 ATS (-17.4 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 9-24 ATS (-17.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 7-20 ATS (-15.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 2-0 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 2-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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