Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Monday 11/5/18
Tennessee Titans vs. Dallas Cowboys Preview and Predictions 11-05-2018
NFL Predictions 2nd November 2018 by Gracenote
by Gracenote on 11/02/2018
The Dallas Cowboys and Tennessee Titans each have the luxury of playing in mediocre divisions, but both teams are in danger of falling too far back in their respective conference playoff pictures with another loss. The Titans and Cowboys also share the similarities of owning identical 3-4 records while coming off a loss and a bye heading into Monday night's clash in Dallas.
The game will mark the Cowboys debut of wide receiver Amari Cooper, who was acquired from Oakland for a first-round draft pick to put some juice in Dallas' struggling offense. "He's electrifying. He's one of those guys you hold your breath every time he catches the ball," running back Ezekiel Elliott told reporters regarding Cooper. "He's a great addition to this offense and I'm excited." The bye week couldn't come soon enough for Tennessee, which followed a three-game winning streak by scoring a total of 31 points during a three-game slide that includes a pair of one-point defeats. "It's our fault, you know what I'm saying?" Titans Pro Bowl safety Kevin Byard told reporters. "We're not doing the right things to win these games, and we have to find ways to turn that around."
TV: 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: Cowboys -5.5. O/U: 40.5
ABOUT THE TITANS (3-4): Marcus Mariota injured his elbow in the season opener and has been dealing with numbness in his throwing hand, but he finally was able to discard the glove he's been wearing since getting hurt. That, and the loss the of tight end Delanie Walker to a season-ending injury in Week 1, has contributed to Mariota's woes - he has thrown three touchdown passes and five interceptions while being held to 129 yards or fewer in four of his six games. The running back tandem of Dion Lewis and Derrick Henry also has struggled, although Lewis gained 155 yards from scrimmage in Tennessee's last contest. The Titans rank 19th in the league against the run, permitting 112.3 yards per game.
ABOUT THE COWBOYS (3-4): The offseason departures of Dez Bryant and Jason Witten has grounded Dallas' aerial attack, prompting the move to bring in Cooper to jump-start a passing offense ranked 29th in the NFL (183.1 yards). Whether Cooper is the answer for Dak Prescott remains to be seen - the former No. 4 overall pick had 48 receptions and seven touchdowns last season while recording 22 catches and one score for the Raiders this year before the trade. The Cowboys have the league's fourth-ranked ground game thanks to Elliott, who is second in the NFL in rushing with 619 yards and has three 100-yard performances. Dallas ranks third overall in total defense (313.7) and against the pass (217.4).
EXTRA POINTS
1. Dallas (17.6) and Tennessee (18.1) rank second and third, respectively, in the NFL in points allowed.
2. Mariota has thrown 24 TD passes and seven interceptions in his last 12 games versus NFC opponents.
3. Cowboys DE Demarcus Lawrence has registered seven sacks in his last five home contests.
PREDICTION: Cowboys 23, Titans 20
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MNF - Titans at Cowboys
November 4, 2018
By Kevin Rogers
Both these teams are off the bye last week as each squad looks to climb back to the .500 mark. The Titans (3-4 SU, 4-3 ATS) were once 3-1 after three consecutive three-point wins. However, the offense has scored a total of 31 points in the past three losses, while coming off a 20-19 defeat to the Chargers in London back in Week 7. Tennessee cashed as 6 ½-point underdogs to improve to 4-1 ATS when receiving points, but there were many questions on why the Titans didn’t win.
The Titans erased a 17-6 deficit to creep within one point in the final minute on a Marcus Mariota touchdown pass to Luke Stocker on fourth down. However, instead of opting for the tie and overtime, Titans’ head coach Mike Vrabel put his offense on the field for the game-winning two-point conversion. Tennessee didn’t convert as that call was questioned by the pundits, even though the Titans’ defense limited Los Angeles to one touchdown in the final three quarters and the Titans had momentum late.
The Cowboys (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS) have not owned a winning record this season, while alternating wins and losses through the first seven games. Prior to the bye, Dallas fell short at Washington, 20-17 as kicker Brett Maher hit the post on a game-tying field goal in the final seconds. Running back Ezekiel Elliott ranked second in the NFL in rushing yards heading into Week 9, as the former Ohio State standout was limited to a season-low 33 yards against Washington.
Off a win this season, the Cowboys have scored 13, 16, and 17 points. However, Dallas has put up 20, 26, and 40 off a loss, which is the situation the Cowboys are in this week. The Cowboys and Titans are part of a three-team group that has not allowed more than 27 points in a game this season, while the Eagles are the other.
DIAL UP ANOTHER WIN?
The Cowboys have yet to lose a game at AT&T Stadium this season by beating the Giants, Lions, and Jaguars. Yes, it has worked out that Dallas faced all those off road losses, where they are 0-4 this season. Dallas has split its first against the spread in the home favorite role by cashing against New York, but needing a late field goal to edge Detroit. Since 2016, the Cowboys have covered in four of five opportunities as a home favorite of six points or more, while being listed in that range for the first time this season.
DOGGY DOES IT
Tennessee has thrived in the underdog role this season by covering in four of five opportunities. Prior to the one-point loss (and cover) against the Chargers in London, the Titans had won outright when receiving points in their first three chances against the Texans, Jaguars, and Eagles. The 4-1 ATS mark under Vrabel is a significant change from the 4-6 ATS record last season as an underdog, while the Titans posted a horrific 9-18 ATS ledger from 2014 through 2017.
SERIES HISTORY
Before the Texans were even a thought, the Cowboys and the then-Oilers were the two main attractions in the Lone Star State. Since the Titans moved to Nashville in 1998, Tennessee and Dallas have hooked up five times in the regular season with the Cowboys coming out victorious three times. The Cowboys knocked off the Titans in their last meeting at Tennessee in 2014 as three-point underdogs, 26-10. Every main offensive weapon on both sides is no longer on the active roster as tight end Delanie Walker is the lone contributor still on one of these teams, but he is sidelined with a season-ending ankle injury.
MONDAY NIGHT LIGHTS
The Cowboys have won in each of their last three opportunities on Monday night football since 2015. In the past two seasons, Dallas has cruised in the favorite role on Mondays by pounding Detroit, 42-21 in 2016 and taking care of Arizona last season, 28-17 as three-point chalk. The Titans have covered six consecutive Monday night games dating back to 2008, while winning five times straight-up. Last season, Tennessee pulled away from Indianapolis, 36-22 after rallying from a 10-point deficit in the first half.
HANDICAPPER’S CORNER
VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson checks in on this interconference matchup by noting how competitive Tennessee has been this season, “Six of the seven games for the Titans have been decided by a single-score, making this underdog spread of nearly a full touchdown appealing. However, Tennessee is on a 12-25 ATS run in road games since 2014. The Titans have the third-best scoring defense in the NFL allowing 18.1 points per game but only Arizona and Buffalo have been worse scoring teams with Tennessee averaging 15.1 points per game.”
Two seasons ago, Dak Prescott and the Cowboys owned the best record in the NFC. Things have changed quickly for the former Mississippi State standout, according to Nelson, “Prescott has been a top 4 QBR quarterback each of the past two seasons for the Cowboys, but with some changes on the offensive line, he has struggled this season. He and Mariota are both outside of the league’s top 20 in QBR at this point in the season. The numbers are even worse in traditional QB Rating with Prescott 24th and Mariota 30th as the star quarterbacks trail players like Derek Carr, Brock Osweiler, and Eli Manning in that metric.”
Nelson also notes that Dallas needs to end their inconsistent ways if it wants to make a playoff push in the NFC, “For Dallas, road games at Philadelphia and at Atlanta follow this game as the season is certainly at a critical juncture. All four losses have come by 11 or fewer points vs. winning teams while the wins for Dallas have all come at home vs. losing teams. Dallas made a bye week deal for Amari Cooper looking to boost the offensive potential of the team though he remains questionable with a concussion. Cooper was one of the best receivers in the league in 2015 and 2016, but has just 70 catches for 960 yards over his past 20 games.”
LINE MOVEMENT
The Westgate Superbook opened the Cowboys as 6 ½-point favorites last Monday. However, that line has dropped to Dallas laying four at the Westgate, while other books are showing Dallas -4 ½. There hasn’t been much movement on the total, which opened at 41, as this number has dipped to 40 ½ at most outfits.
NFL
Long Sheet
Week 9
Monday. November 5
Tennessee Titans
Tennessee is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tennessee's last 6 games
Tennessee is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tennessee's last 6 games on the road
Tennessee is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Dallas
Dallas Cowboys
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Dallas's last 11 games
Dallas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Dallas is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Tennessee
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ATS Trends
Tennessee
Titans are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 Monday games.
Titans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Titans are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up loss.
Titans are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Titans are 11-23 ATS in their last 34 road games.
Titans are 12-25-3 ATS in their last 40 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Titans are 17-37-1 ATS in their last 55 games following a ATS win.
Titans are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a bye week.
Titans are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Titans are 9-27-3 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Titans are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Titans are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games in November.
Titans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf.
Dallas
Cowboys are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Cowboys are 9-4-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Cowboys are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games following a bye week.
Cowboys are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 Monday games.
Cowboys are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 9.
OU Trends
Tennessee
Over is 5-0 in Titans last 5 games in Week 9.
Under is 5-1 in Titans last 6 games overall.
Under is 5-1 in Titans last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
Over is 4-1 in Titans last 5 games in November.
Under is 4-1 in Titans last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Titans last 5 games following a straight up loss.
Under is 4-1 in Titans last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Under is 7-3 in Titans last 10 games following a ATS win.
Dallas
Over is 7-0 in Cowboys last 7 games following a bye week.
Over is 8-1 in Cowboys last 9 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Under is 5-1 in Cowboys last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
Under is 13-3 in Cowboys last 16 games overall.
Under is 4-1 in Cowboys last 5 games in November.
Under is 4-1 in Cowboys last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 15-4-2 in Cowboys last 21 games in Week 9.
Under is 6-2 in Cowboys last 8 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 8-3 in Cowboys last 11 games on fieldturf.
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