Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Monday 12/10/18
Monday
Vikings (6-5-1) @ Seahawks (7-5)— Pivotal game in NFC playoff race. Right now, these teams would be two NFC Wild Card teams, so loser will get passed/tied for last playoff slot. Minnesota is 2-3 in its last five games; they’re 2-3-1 SU on road, 3-7 vs spread in last 10 games as road underdogs, 1-3 this year. In last three games, Vikings ran ball for 22-91-95 yards; fans are unhappy with the OC. Seahawks won their last three games, scoring 27-30-43 points; they’re 3-2 SU at home. Seattle is 3-7-1 vs spread in last 11 games as home favorite, 2-1-1 this year. Seattle won last four series games, winning last meeting 10-9 in 2015 playoff game; Vikings lost their last two visits here, 30-20/41-20. Last four Seattle games went over total.
MNF - Vikings at Seahawks
December 9, 2018
By Kevin Rogers
One season after sitting one victory away from the Super Bowl, the Vikings (6-5-1 SU, 6-5-1 ATS) are in danger of missing the playoffs. It’s been an up and down season in Minnesota as the Vikings are coming off a 24-10 setback at New England as six-point underdogs. The Vikings trailed 10-0 early before Kirk Cousins hit Adam Thielen on a five-yard touchdown in the final minute before halftime to cut the deficit to 10-7.
Minnesota tied the game at 10-10 in the third quarter on a Dan Bailey field goal, but the Patriots struck for two touchdowns to pull away for the victory and cover. Cousins finished with 201 passing yards in spite of 32 completions, while getting intercepted twice. The Patriots picked up 27 first downs compared to 16 by the Vikings, as Minnesota has lost its past two road games and failed to cover each time as an underdog.
The Seahawks (7-5 SU, 7-3-2 ATS) have come back to life in the NFC Wild Card race by pulling out three consecutive victories. The latest triumph came in a 43-16 rout of the 49ers last Sunday as 10-point favorites to move above .500 at home with a 3-2 mark. Russell Wilson completed only 11 passes, but four of those went for touchdowns, including two scoring strikes to Jaron Brown.
Seattle’s rushing attack continued to punish the opposition by gaining 168 yards, while Bobby Wagner finished off the blowout with a 98-yard interception return for a touchdown in the fourth quarter. Although Seattle allowed 49ers’ quarterback Nick Mullens to throw for 414 yards and two touchdowns, the Seahawks allowed 17 points or less for the fifth time this season.
TOTAL RECALL
The Seahawks began the season cashing the UNDER in six of eight games. However, Seattle has turned up the offense by hitting the OVER in each of the past four contests. The offense has provided 27 points or more in each of the last four games, while eclipsing that total in seven of the past eight contests. Seattle has drilled the OVER in three of the previous four games at CenturyLink Field, while allowing 24 points or more three times in this span.
The Vikings hit the OVER in four of their first seven contests, but have finished UNDER the total in four of the last five games. The Minnesota offense has been inconsistent during this stretch by failing to score 21 points or more in consecutive games, while allowing 24 points or more in losses to New England, Chicago, and New Orleans, all division leaders.
ROAD WOES
Last season, Minnesota won six of eight games away from U.S. Bank Stadium, but has stumbled to a 2-3-1 road mark this season. The only victory for the Vikings in the road underdog role came at Philadelphia in a Week 5 triumph, 23-21 as 3 ½-point ‘dogs. Minnesota has compiled a 2-2 ATS record when receiving points on the highway, while going 4-6 ATS in this role since 2016.
SERIES HISTORY
The Seahawks and Vikings haven’t hooked up since facing each other twice in 2015. Seattle destroyed Minnesota, 38-7 in Week 13 of that season, while the Seahawks edged the Vikings, 10-9 in the Wild Card round. The playoff win for Seattle came in the bitter cold as Vikings’ kicker Blair Walsh missed a chip-shot field goal that would have given Minnesota the victory. In the two losses, the Vikings reached the end zone only once, which came on a 101-yard kickoff return in the December defeat when Minnesota trailed, 35-0.
Seattle has captured each of the past four matchups in the series, including a pair of wins at CenturyLink Field by double-digits in 2012 and 2013. Minnesota’s last win over Seattle came in 2009, back when Brett Favre was still the quarterback of the Vikings in a 35-9 blowout at the Metrodome.
MONDAY NIGHT LIGHTS
The Vikings are making their first appearance on Monday night football this season, as Minnesota won in each of their Monday matchups in 2017. Last season, the Vikings defeated the Saints in the season opener at home, while edging the Bears at Soldier Field, 20-17 as 3 ½-point favorites. Minnesota is listed as an underdog on Monday night for the first time since 2013, when the Vikings fell to the Giants, 23-7 as four-point ‘dogs.
Seattle last appeared under the Monday night lights in Week 2 at Chicago in a 24-17 setback as 4 ½-point underdogs. Since Wilson was drafted by the Seahawks in 2012, Seattle has won six of eight times in Monday action, but the two losses have come in each of the past two seasons, including a home defeat to Atlanta in 2017.
TREND WATCH
VegasInsider.com trends expert Vince Akins checks in with a pair of trends to keep
an eye on for Monday’s contest, both involving Minnesota. “The Vikings are 10-0-1 ATS (7.91 ppg) since Dec 21, 2006 as a dog coming off a loss where they allowed at least 300 passing yards,” Akins notes, which includes an underdog victory at Philadelphia in Week 5.
From a totals perspective, Akins provides an UNDER situation for Minnesota, “The Vikings are 0-12 OU (-9.00 ppg) since Oct 12, 2014 when they are coming off a road game where they were not more than TD-dogs and gained less than 310 total yards.” This situation occurred back in Week 12 against Green Bay, as the Vikings won, 24-17 and stayed UNDER the total of 48 ½.
LINE MOVEMENT
The Seahawks opened up as 3 ½-point favorites at the Westgate Superbook, while the total sat at 45 last Monday. Nearly seven days later and not much movement on the number as Seattle is laying three at most spots with the juice at -115 or -120. The total has taken a split uptick to 45 ½ as the Vikings are 3-0 to the OVER on road totals of 45 ½ or less this season.
NFL
Long Sheet
Week 14
MINNESOTA (6 - 5 - 1) at SEATTLE (7 - 5) - 12/10/2018, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 69-40 ATS (+25.0 Units) in December games since 1992.
MINNESOTA is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
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NFL
Week 14
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Trend Report
Monday. December 10
Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota is 5-8-2 ATS in its last 15 games
Minnesota is 17-7-1 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games
Minnesota is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Minnesota is 2-4-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 7 games on the road
Minnesota is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing Seattle
Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Seattle
Minnesota is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing on the road against Seattle
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle is 6-1-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Seattle is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games
Seattle is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 7 games at home
Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing Minnesota
Seattle is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Minnesota
Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing at home against Minnesota
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Minnesota Vikings vs. Seattle Seahawks Preview and Predictions 2018-12-10
The Seattle Seahawks saw any hopes of winning the NFC West evaporate when the division-rival Los Angeles Rams opened the season 8-0. The Seahawks' playoff chances also appeared to take a major hit after back-to-back losses to both Los Angeles teams, but they have bounced back and carry a three-game winning streak into Monday night's contest against the visiting Minnesota Vikings.
Seattle posted three-point victories over Green Bay and Carolina before routing San Francisco last week to vault into the fifth playoff spot in the NFC - one-half game ahead of Minnesota. "We need tough matchups with teams that really challenge us in many ways, and this is one of them, for sure," Seahawks coach Pete Carroll told reporters of facing the Vikings. "So we've got to get it cranked up, have a good week and get ready to go for a big opportunity on Monday night." Minnesota owns a one-half game lead over three teams for the last postseason berth after losing at New England 24-10 last weekend (as the Vikings were +5.5 point underdog at intertops) and now must fly to the opposite coast to face resurgent Seattle. "It comes down to other teams are in the hunt, other teams are fighting for their division title and whoever has the best four-game stretch," Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins told reporters. "It doesn't really matter what happened before."
TV: 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: Seahawks -3 O/U: 45.5
ABOUT THE VIKINGS (6-5-1): Minnesota has alternated losses and wins over its last five games, a stretch during which Cousins has thrown nine touchdown passes against six interceptions. Running back Dalvin Cook was effective against the Patriots, picking up 84 yards on nine carries, but he has not had more than 10 rushing attempts since the season opener as the Vikings continue to struggle to find balance in their offense. Wide receiver Adam Thielen has registered nine 100-yard performances and just as many touchdowns, but he was held under 30 yards for the second time in the last four games by New England. Defensive pressure is critical for Minnesota, which is 6-1-1 when it notches at least three sacks and 0-4 when it fails to record three.
ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (7-5): Unlike Minnesota, the running game is a point of emphasis for Seattle, which features the top-ranked attack with an average of 148.8 yards and at least 32 rushes in eight of its last 10 games. "Because it's the best way to not screw it up," Carroll said. "That's why the turnover issue is of paramount importance to us. It's the most important thing that we taught." Quarterback Russell Wilson is averaging only 226.4 yards passing but usually dials it up late in the season, and this year is no exception - he has 11 touchdown passes and zero interceptions over his last four contests. Linemen Frank Clark and Jarran Reed have combined for 16.5 sacks to lead a unit ranked ninth in scoring defense (21.6 points).
EXTRA POINTS
1. Seattle has won each of the last four matchups, including a 10-9 playoff victory in January 2016.
2. Thielen, who has made a league-high 98 catches, has recorded 48 receptions and five TDs in six road games.
3. Wilson has a 142.0 passer rating with eight TDs and zero interceptions in three career matchups versus Minnesota.
PREDICTION: Seahawks 26, Vikings 23
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