Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Monday 12/24/18
Denver Broncos vs Oakland Raiders Preview and Predictions Picks
The "Black Hole" could live up to its name in every way for the final Monday Night Football game of the season as the Oakland Raiders host the Denver Broncos in a matchup of AFC West rivals. With neither team in contention for a postseason spot, the main storyline is whether or not it will mark the final game for the Raiders at the Oakland Coliseum.
Oakland, which is in the running for the league's worst record in Jon Gruden's first season back as coach, may need to find a temporary home while a new stadium is being built in Las Vegas in time for the 2020 season. "Hopefully, we get it all resolved to where we can continue to play here (next season)," Gruden told reporters. "It's going to be a great atmosphere, Monday night, Christmas Eve, Denver coming to town. I get excited thinking about it." Denver's excitement has been tempered by back-to-back losses to Cleveland and San Francisco that extinguished its postseason chances, but it still expects a rude welcome from the Raiders faithful. "Anytime you play on the road, it's a hostile environment,'' Broncos linebacker Von Miller told reporters. "But that's very hostile. It's one of the most hostile I've been around. It's fun, you want people that care."
TV: 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: Broncos -3. O/U: 43
ABOUT THE BRONCOS (6-8): Denver won three in a row to jump into the thick of the AFC playoff race but scored a total of 30 points in the losses to the 49ers and Browns - a pair of sub-.500 teams. Case Keenum, working with a patchwork receiving corps that has three rookies playing prominent roles, has thrown one touchdown pass and two interceptions in his last two games despite going to the air 90 times. Rookie running back Phillip Lindsay has been one of the bright spots in the season and needs just nine yards to reach 1,000, but he was held to 24 on 14 carries by Cleveland. Denver ranks sixth in the league with 42 sacks, getting a total of 26.5 from the linebacking tandem of Miller and rookie Bradley Chubb.
ABOUT THE RAIDERS (3-11): One week after throwing for 322 yards and two touchdowns in a 24-21 upset win over Pittsburgh, Derek Carr was sacked five times as Oakland dropped a 30-16 decision to a Cincinnati squad that had lost five in a row. Carr, who has not thrown an interception and absorbed 36 sacks in his last nine games, completed 90.6 percent (29-of-32) of his passes for 288 yards and was taken down only once in a 20-19 loss at Denver in Week 2. Tight end Jared Cook is Carr's top target with 63 receptions and six touchdowns, but leading rusher Doug Martin has failed to gain 40 yards in each of his last two contests. Oakland's pass rush has been non-existent with a league-low 12 sacks - a dozen fewer than any other team.
EXTRA POINTS
1. Miller, who has registered 14.5 sacks on the season, needs two to reach 100 for his career.
2. Carr has a 122.8 passer rating with four TDs and zero interceptions in his last three meetings with the Broncos.
3. One of Lindsay's three 100-yard performances was a 107-yard effort against Oakland in Week 2.
PREDICTION: Raiders 23, Broncos 20
NFL
Long Sheet
Week 16
Monday, December 24
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DENVER (6 - 8) at OAKLAND (3 - 11) - 12/24/2018, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 62-87 ATS (-33.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
OAKLAND is 51-85 ATS (-42.5 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 10-23 ATS (-15.3 Units) as a home underdog of 3 points or less since 1992.
OAKLAND is 79-108 ATS (-39.8 Units) in home games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 79-108 ATS (-39.8 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 28-50 ATS (-27.0 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.
OAKLAND is 145-182 ATS (-55.2 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
OAKLAND is 36-62 ATS (-32.2 Units) in December games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 39-82 ATS (-51.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
OAKLAND is 22-44 ATS (-26.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
OAKLAND is 34-59 ATS (-30.9 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 3-2 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 3-2 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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NFL
Week 16
Trend Report
Monday, December 24
Denver Broncos
Denver is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games
Denver is 8-16-1 ATS in its last 25 games
Denver is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games
Denver is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Denver is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games on the road
Denver is 4-13 SU in its last 17 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games on the road
Denver is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Oakland
Denver is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Denver's last 7 games when playing Oakland
Denver is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Oakland
Denver is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games when playing on the road against Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 6 games when playing on the road against Oakland
Oakland Raiders
Oakland is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games
Oakland is 3-15 SU in its last 18 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Oakland's last 21 games
Oakland is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Denver
Oakland is 3-11 SU in its last 14 games when playing Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Oakland's last 7 games when playing Denver
Oakland is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Denver
Oakland is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games when playing at home against Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 6 games when playing at home against Denver
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NFL
Week 16
Monday
Broncos (6-8) @ Raiders (3-11)— This is likely the Raiders’ last-ever game in the Coliseum, with city of Oakland suing the ballclub. Denver scored 14-16 points in losing its last two games; they are 3-4 on road this year, 2-1 as AF- they’re 21-13-1 in last 35 games as road favorites. Oakland lost eight of its last ten games; they’re 2-4 SU at home this year- they’re 2-7 vs spread as a single digit underdog this season. Raiders have gone over their team total four of their last five games. Raiders (+6) lost 20-19 in Denver in Week 2, blowing 12-0 halftime lead. Broncos ran for 168 yards that day. Teams split last six series games after Denver had won eight in row; Broncos lost 30-20/21-14 in last two visits to the Coliseum.
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NFL's Top ATS Teams (based on cover %):
t1. Bears 10-4 ATS
t1. Saints 10-4 ATS
3. Seahawks 8-4-2 ATS
4. Browns 9-5 ATS
5. Chiefs 8-5-1 ATS
t6. 7 teams tied at 8-6 ATS (Chargers, Pats, Cowboys, Titans, Dolphins, Redskins, Lions)
NFL's Worst ATS Teams (based on cover %):
32. Falcons 4-10 ATS
31. Jaguars 4-8-2 ATS
t27. Raider 5-9 ATS
t27. 49ers 5-9 ATS
t27. Bills 5-9 ATS
t27. Eagles 5-9 ATS
t24. 3 teams tied at 5-8-1 ATS (Jets, Packers, Rams)
NFL's Top OVER Teams (based on Over %):
1. Chiefs 9-4-1
2. Jets 9-5
3. Bengals 8-5-1
t4. Falcons 8-6
t4. Bears 8-6
t4. Chargers 8-6
t4. 49ers 8-6
t4. Bucs 8-6
NFL's Top UNDER Teams (based on Under %):
1. Broncos 10-3-1
t2. Patriots 9-5
t2. Saints 9-5
t4. 13 teams tied at 8-6 (Cardinals, Ravens, Bills, Browns, Cowboys, Lions, Texans, Colts, Jags, Vikings, Eagles, Titans, Redskins)
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MNF - Broncos at Raiders
December 24, 2018
By Kevin Rogers
LAST WEEK
The Broncos (6-8 SU, 6-7-1 ATS) took a major hit to their slim playoff hopes by dropping their second straight game in a 17-16 home defeat to the surging Browns. Denver’s offense failed to come through once again after being held to 14 points in a road defeat at San Francisco the previous week. Since starting the season 2-0 at home, Denver fell to 1-4 in their last five games at Broncos Stadium at Mile High.
Denver actually led this game going into the fourth quarter at 13-10, but Cleveland took the lead early in the fourth on a Baker Mayfield touchdown pass. The Broncos made a crucial fourth down stop to take possession back late, but Denver could only reach midfield and turned the ball over on downs. Quarterback Case Keenum was intercepted twice and threw for 257 yards, as the former Vikings’ signal-caller was picked off for the first time since Week 8 at Kansas City. After posting back-to-back 100+ yard games against Pittsburgh and Cincinnati, rookie running back Phillip Lindsay was held to under 30 yards for the second straight week (24 yards on 13 carries).
The Raiders (3-11 SU, 5-9 ATS) picked up consecutive covers as a double-digit home underdog against Kansas City and Pittsburgh, including stunning the Steelers in Week 14 at the Black Hole, 24-21. However, the Silver and Black crashed back to Earth in a 30-16 defeat to the Bengals last Sunday as three-point underdogs. The loss was the sixth in seven tries away from the Oakland Coliseum, while the Raiders fell to 2-5 ATS on the highway.
The Bengals jumped out to a 17-0 second quarter lead and never looked back as the Raiders’ lone touchdown came on a Derek Carr one-yard connection to Lee Smith (no, not the Hall of Fame relief pitcher). Oakland rushed for only 68 yards against Cincinnati, one week after putting up 55 yards against Pittsburgh, which is huge drop-off following a 171-yard ground effort against Kansas City in Week 14.
BUMPY ROAD
Last season, the Broncos picked up only one road win in eight tries, which didn’t come until Week 15 at Indianapolis. This season, Denver started 0-2 away from Mile High following double-digit defeats to the Ravens and Jets, but put together its most complete effort of the season in a Week 7 blowout at Arizona. The Broncos continued to stay competitive on the highway by covering in a loss at Kansas City and rallying past the Chargers as 7 ½-point underdogs in Week 11.
Denver cruised past Cincinnati in Week 13 as a four-point favorite, but crashed and burned the following week at San Francisco in a 20-14 defeat as the Niners built a 20-0 halftime lead and the Broncos scored a pair of late touchdowns to make the final score look closer.
UNDER THUNDER
Sticking with the Broncos, Vance Joseph’s team is riding a six-game UNDER streak dating back to a 19-17 home loss to the Texans in Week 9. Denver has not scored more than 24 points since dropping 45 points at Arizona in mid-October, while limiting the last six opponents to 22 points or fewer. All six totals in this stretch have sat between 45 and 47 ½, as Monday’s will be the lowest total for Denver since Week 7. By the way, in all three games that Denver has seen a total of 43 or less, the OVER has hit all three times.
THE FINAL HOLE?
There is speculation that the Raiders may be done in Oakland following the season with its pending move to Las Vegas in 2020. So does that mean this is the final game at the Black Hole if the Raiders go elsewhere for 2019? Two of Oakland’s three wins have come at home this season, but the team has lost to the Rams, Colts, Chargers, and Chiefs as an underdog. Yes, the Raiders have covered in their last two games at home, but this is their lowest underdog number at the Coliseum since a Week 8 loss to Indianapolis, 42-28 as 3 ½-point ‘dogs.
SERIES HISTORY
The home team has dominated this series since 2016 by winning each of the last five meetings. Denver rallied to stun Oakland in Week 2 at Mile High Stadium, 20-19 as the Broncos scored the final 13 points of the game. Brandon McManus booted the game-winning field goal with 10 seconds remaining to cap off the comeback, but the Raiders still picked up the cover as 5 ½-point underdogs.
Carr finished with 288 yards passing for Oakland with 116 of those yards going to star wide receiver Amari Cooper. The Raiders won’t have the luxury of throwing to Cooper, as he putting up tremendous numbers with the Cowboys after getting traded midseason. Lindsay rushed for 107 yards in the win, as the game finished UNDER the total of 44. Each of the past four matchups have gone UNDER the total, while Denver’s last victory at Oakland came in 2015.
MONDAY NIGHT LIGHTS
Under Joseph, the Broncos have lost two of three Monday night contests, including the 27-23 defeat in the final minutes to Kansas City back in September. The last time Denver won on the road on a Monday night came in the incredible comeback at San Diego in 2012 as the Broncos erased a 24-0 halftime deficit to stun the Chargers, 35-24.
The Raiders have dropped four of their last five Monday night affairs dating back to 2012. The last time Oakland and Denver hooked up on Monday night came in 2013, as the Broncos drubbed the Raiders, 37-21 as 16-point home favorites. Favorites have won the last five weeks on Monday night football, as the last road favorite to cover was New England back in Week 8 at Buffalo.
HANDICAPPER’S CORNER
VegasInsider.com NFL expert Joe Nelson checks in for the Monday night season finale as he begins his breakdown with the offensive numbers for these AFC West rivals, “Both teams have fairly average offensive statistics with a slight passing edge for the Raiders and a slight ground edge for the Broncos. The per-game defensive yardage numbers are also nearly identical despite the contrasting reputations for these defenses though Denver has been significantly stronger in scoring defense and against the run.”
After the Broncos looked like they upgraded at quarterback in the offseason, Nelson notes that move has not paid dividends, “Keenum has ultimately been a huge disappointment after being the #2 QBR player last season while with Minnesota. He is currently 29th in that metric only ahead of Ryan Tannehill and rookies Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen among qualified players. Carr sits just two spots above Keenum as his star has certainly fallen from his great 2016 numbers.”
GAME PROPS – Courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas Superbook
Total Gross Passing Yards – Case Keenum
OVER 240 ½ (-110)
UNDER 240 ½ (-110)
Total Touchdown Passes – Case Keenum
OVER 1 ½ (+110)
UNDER 1 ½ (-130)
Total Rushing Yards – Phillip Lindsay
OVER 75 ½ (-110)
UNDER 75 ½ (-110)
Total Completions – Derek Carr
OVER 23 ½ (-110)
UNDER 23 ½ (-110)
Total Touchdown Passes – Derek Carr
OVER 1 ½ (+120)
UNDER 1 ½ (-140)
Total Receiving Yards – Jared Cook
OVER 52 ½ (-110)
UNDER 52 ½ (-110)
LINE MOVEMENT
The Broncos opened as 2 ½-point favorites at the Westgate last Sunday, as that number has moved up to 3 at most books. The Westgate released the total at 44 ½, but has gone to 43 ½ at many locations and even down to 43 at some books.