Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Saturday 1/4/20
AFC Wild Card Notes
Buffalo at Houston
Saturday, Jan. 4 (ESPN-ABC, 4:35 p.m. ET)
Bills Road Record: 6-2 SU, 6-0-2 ATS
Texans Home Record: 5-3 SU, 2-6 ATS
Opening Odds
The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened Houston -3 with a total of 39 ½. The overnight line has held steady while the total was pushed up to 41 ½.
Head-to-Head
Buffalo and Houston did not meet this season, as the Texans defeated the Bills, 20-13 at NRG Stadium in 2018, but failed to cash as 10-point favorites. Buffalo has dropped four of the past five meetings with Houston dating back to 2009, with three of those losses coming in the Lone Star State. These teams are hooking up in the playoffs for the first time as the last time Buffalo faced a Houston franchise in the postseason, it was the Oilers who blew a 35-3 advantage in a stunning 41-38 overtime defeat to the Bills in 1992. But the Oilers are now the Titans, so that doesn’t apply for this matchup.
Playoff Notes
Houston has claimed the AFC South title six times in the last nine seasons, as the Texans are 3-2 all-time in the Wild Card round. All five of those games have been played at home, but the Texans lost to the Colts last season in the opening round, 21-7. Houston has never reached an AFC Championship in its short history, but have scored 7 points total in its two losses in the Wild Card round in 2015 and 2018.
The Bills last won a playoff game in 1995 against the Dolphins in the Wild Card round, while their previous postseason appearance came in a 10-3 setback at Jacksonville in 2017. Buffalo captured four straight AFC titles from 1990-1993, but are 1-5 in the playoffs in the last 25 seasons.
Total Notes
The Bills were one of the top ‘under’ teams in the league this season by cashing the ‘under’ in 12 of 16 games. Buffalo yielded 17 points or fewer 10 times, including five times on the road. In all five opportunities as an away underdog, the Bills tallied 17 points or fewer, with its highest output in this role coming against the Cowboys on Thanksgiving in a 26-15 triumph.
The Texans were a streaky team in the totals department this season. After eclipsing the ‘over’ in the season opener at New Orleans, Houston hit three consecutive ‘unders,’ followed by three straight ‘overs’, then four ‘unders’ in a row. The ‘over’ went 4-4 at NRG Stadium, although they finished the season with three consecutive ‘overs’ at home. Houston topped the 30-point mark only twice this season and not since a Week 5 victory at Kansas City, 31-24.
Tennessee at New England
Saturday, Jan. 4 (CBS, 8:15 p.m. ET)
Titans Road Record: 5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS
Patriots Home Record: 6-2 SU, 3-4-1 ATS
Opening Odds
The SuperBook sent out New England -5 ½ and that opener has held overnight but the total has gone from 41 ½ to 43 ½.
Head-to-Head
The two teams did not meet this season as the Titans rolled the Patriots in Nashville, 34-10 as 6 ½-point home underdogs in 2018. That loss snapped a seven-game winning streak by New England over Tennessee dating back to 2003. The Titans have never won in Foxborough since relocating to Tennessee in 1997, with each of the past three losses coming by double-digits.
Playoff Notes
The Titans are back in the postseason for the first time since 2017 when they rallied to stun the Chiefs in the Wild Card round, 22-21. Tennessee was knocked out by New England in the divisional playoffs, 35-14 at Gillette Stadium, but the Titans own a 3-1 record in the Wild Card round since moving to Nashville from Houston.
For the first time since 2009, the Patriots are playing the first weekend of the playoffs after owning the bye for nine straight years. New England has won its first playoff game in each of the last eight seasons, while representing the AFC in the Super Bowl in four of the last five seasons. The Patriots are 9-0 in their last nine home playoff contests with the last loss coming to the Ravens in the 2012 AFC Championship.
Total Notes
The Titans started the season on a 5-1 run to the ‘under’ with Marcus Mariota as its starting quarterback. However, since Ryan Tannehill has taken control of this offense, the ‘over’ has cashed in nine of 10 games, including all four games played away from Nissan Stadium. In seven of Tannehill’s 10 starts, the Titans have scored 27 points or more, while allowing 21 points or fewer in three straight road contests.
The Patriots hit the ‘under in eight of the first 11 games of the season, but the ‘over’ has come through in four of the final five contests. The ‘over’ went 4-4 in eight games at Gillette Stadium, while giving up 17 points or less in six home contests before yielding 27 points to the Dolphins in the season finale. The offense posted 30 points or more in each of their first three home wins, but failed to put up more than 27 points in any of their last five contests at Foxborough.
141BUFFALO -142 HOUSTON
BUFFALO is 6-0 ATS (6 Units) in road games in the current season.
143TENNESSEE -144 NEW ENGLAND
NEW ENGLAND is 17-5 ATS (11.5 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game in the last 3 seasons.
145MINNESOTA -146 NEW ORLEANS
NEW ORLEANS are 10-2 ATS (7.8 Units) with <=6 days rest in the current season.
147SEATTLE -148 PHILADELPHIA
SEATTLE is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) in road games vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing <= 7.5 yards per return in the last 3 seasons.
NFL
Long Sheet
Wild Card Round
Saturday, January 4
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BUFFALO (10 - 6) at HOUSTON (10 - 6) - 1/4/2020, 4:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games this season.
BUFFALO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road lined games this season.
BUFFALO is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 1-0 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 1-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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TENNESSEE (9 - 7) at NEW ENGLAND (12 - 4) - 1/4/2020, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 123-158 ATS (-50.8 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 270-207 ATS (+42.3 Units) in all games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 270-207 ATS (+42.3 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 207-152 ATS (+39.8 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 199-152 ATS (+31.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) in home games against AFC South division opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 106-73 ATS (+25.7 Units) off a division game since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 130-89 ATS (+32.1 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 129-92 ATS (+27.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 91-59 ATS (+26.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 1-1 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 1-1 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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Sunday, January 5
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MINNESOTA (10 - 6) at NEW ORLEANS (13 - 3) - 1/5/2020, 1:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in dome games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 51-31 ATS (+16.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home games off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 2-1 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 2-1 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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SEATTLE (11 - 5) at PHILADELPHIA (9 - 7) - 1/5/2020, 4:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 71-48 ATS (+18.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 13-27 ATS (-16.7 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 2-0 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 2-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
NFL
Dunkel
Wild Card Round
Saturday, January 4
Buffalo @ Houston
Game 141-142
January 4, 2020 @ 4:35 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Buffalo
132.066
Houston
131.142
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Buffalo
by 1
30
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 3
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Buffalo
(+3); Under
Tennessee @ New England
Game 143-144
January 4, 2020 @ 8:15 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Tennessee
139.201
New England
134.604
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tennessee
by 4 1/2
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 5 1/2
44
Dunkel Pick:
Tennessee
(+5 1/2); Under
Sunday, January 5
Minnesota @ New Orleans
Game 145-146
January 5, 2020 @ 1:05 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
131.480
New Orleans
143.309
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
by 12
57
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 7 1/2
49 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New Orleans
(-7 1/2); Over
Seattle @ Philadelphia
Game 147-148
January 5, 2020 @ 4:40 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Seattle
134.306
Philadelphia
129.239
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 5
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 1 1/2
45
Dunkel Pick:
Seattle
(-1 1/2); Over
NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up
Wild Card Round
Last two seasons, underdogs are 7-0-1 ATS in this round of playoffs.
Saturday
Bills (10-6) @ Texans (10-6)—Buffalo is in playoffs for 2nd time in three years, but they lost last five playoff games- their last playoff win was in 1995. Texans are in playoffs for 4th time in five years; they won a Wild Card game three years ago. Bills lost three of last four games overall, scoring 14.3 ppg, completing less than half their passes; they’re 5-3 SU on road TY, 4-1-1 ATS as a road underdog- they’re 7-0 SU scoring more than 17 points. Seven of their last nine games went under the total. Texans are 6-2 TY in games decided by 6 or fewer points; they’re 1-5 ATS as a home favorite. Six of their last nine games stayed under. Houston won four of last five series games; Buffalo lost its last three visits here, by 12-6-7 points.
Titans (9-7) @ Patriots (12-4)— New England is in Wild Card game for first time in ten years; they won AFC the last three years, played in AFC title game the last eight years. Patriots split their last eight games overall after an 8-0 start; they’re 0-3 allowing more than 17 points. NE is 4-4 ATS as a home favorite- four of their last five games went over. Patriots are -3 in turnovers the lat two games, after being +24 up to that point. Tennessee is 7-3 TY with Tannehill at QB; they won their last three road games, scoring 36 ppg. Titans are 5-3 SU on road TY; they’re 2-2 ATS as a road underdog. Eight of their last nine games went over. Tennessee is in playoffs for only 2nd time in last 11 years; they upset the Chiefs in Arrowhead in this round two years ago, then lost 35-14 here. NE won seven of last eight series games, but lost 34-10 in Nashville LY.
Sunday
Vikings (10-6) @ Saints (5-10)— Saints won five of last seven series games; home team won both their playoff meetings, with Minnesota scoring GW TD on a 61-yard TD pass as time expired in their 29-24 win two years ago. NO beat Vikings 30-20 on road LY- this is Vikings’ first visit here in five years. Minnesota split its eight road games SU; they’re 1-2 ATS as a road underdog TY. Vikings are 7-1 TY when they allow 20 or fewer points, 3-5 when they allow more. Over is 8-3 in their last 11 games. New Orleans lost NFC title game at home LY; they’re in playoffs for third year in row. Saints scored 38 ppg in winning last three games overall. Minnesota is in playoffs for 3rd time in five years; they lost 38-7 at Philly in NFC title game two years ago.
Seahawks (11-5) @ Eagles (9-7)— Seattle (-1.5) won 17-9 here in Week 12, coming off their bye; Eagles didn’t score TD until last 0:20 of game- they turned ball over five times (-3). Seahawks won their last five games with Philly, also winning their last five visits here- their last loss in Philly was in 1989. Seahawks lost three of last four games overall to fall to #5 seed; they’re 7-1 SU on road TY, with only loss 28-12 to the Rams in Week 14. Seattle is in playoffs of 7th time in eight years; they won their first playoff game nine of last ten times they were in playoffs. Eagles won their last four games to win NFC East; they’re 5-3 SU at home TY. Philly is in playoffs for 3rd in row, winning this round 16-15 in Chicago LY. Under is 5-3 in their last eight games overall.
NFL
Wild Card Round
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Trend Report
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Saturday, January 4
Houston Texans
Houston is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Houston is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 9 games
Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Houston is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Houston's last 12 games at home
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing Buffalo
Buffalo Bills
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games
Buffalo is 7-1-1 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Buffalo is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Buffalo's last 10 games on the road
Buffalo is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing Houston
New England Patriots
New England is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
New England is 17-4 SU in its last 21 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England's last 5 games
New England is 17-8 ATS in its last 25 games at home
New England is 15-2 SU in its last 17 games at home
New England is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Tennessee
New England is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England's last 6 games when playing Tennessee
New England is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Tennessee
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 7 of New England's last 8 games when playing at home against Tennessee
Tennessee Titans
Tennessee is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Tennessee is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Tennessee's last 10 games
Tennessee is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Tennessee is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games on the road
Tennessee is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing New England
Tennessee is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing New England
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 6 games when playing New England
Tennessee is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against New England
Tennessee is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against New England
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Tennessee's last 8 games when playing on the road against New England
Sunday, January 5
New Orleans Saints
New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
New Orleans is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 7 games
New Orleans is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games at home
New Orleans is 20-5 SU in its last 25 games at home
New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
New Orleans is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 8 of New Orleans's last 11 games when playing Minnesota
New Orleans is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games when playing at home against Minnesota
Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Minnesota's last 8 games
Minnesota is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Minnesota is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 5 games on the road
Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New Orleans
Minnesota is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Minnesota's last 11 games when playing New Orleans
Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Philadelphia is 4-10-1 ATS in its last 15 games at home
Philadelphia is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games at home
Philadelphia is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Seattle
Philadelphia is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing Seattle
Philadelphia is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle
Philadelphia is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing at home against Seattle
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Seattle is 17-7 SU in its last 24 games
Seattle is 10-3-1 ATS in its last 14 games on the road
Seattle is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Seattle's last 12 games on the road
Seattle is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
Seattle is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia