Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Saturday 12/15/18
Saturday
Texans (9-4) @ Jets (4-9)— Houston had its 9-game win streak snapped at home by Indy LW; Texans won their last four road games, three by either 2-3 points- they’re 4-3 vs spread in last seven games as a road favorite (0-2 this year). Texans are +6 in turnovers their last three games, with no giveaways. Jets snapped a 6-game losing skid with win at Buffalo LW; they’re 2-4 at home, with all four losses by 8+ points. Under Bowles, Gang Green is 10-6-1 as home underdog, but 0-2 this year. Houston won last two series games, 23-17/24-17, after losing previous five meetings; Texans lost three of four series games played here. Three of last four Jet games went over the total; six of last nine Houston games stayed under.
Browns (5-7-1) @ Broncos (6-7)— Cleveland won three of last four games; Gregg Williams is making strong case to be Browns’ coach in ’19. Browns are 1-5 SU on road, 2-3-1 as AU; last four years, they’re 10-19-1 as road dogs. Broncos won three of last four games but lost at 49ers LW, a bad loss; they’re +9 in turnovers in those four games, with only one giveaway. Denver is 3-3 SU at home, 0-2-1 as home favorite- under Joseph, Broncos are 1-5-1 vs spread as AU. Denver won last seven series games, winning last meeting 26-23 in OT three years ago. Browns lost last four visits here, with three of four losses by 21+ points. Three of last four Cleveland games stayed under; last six Denver games also stayed under the total.
Saturday's Best Bets
December 12, 2018
Week 15 Saturday NFL Best Bets
The holiday season is always a great time for NFL fans craving more days of action, as Saturday games are always introduced at this time of year. Here in Week 15 we get a Saturday double-header to break down as four teams from the AFC do battle.
The Houston Texans are in New York early to take on the Jets, as Houston looks to rebound from having their nine-game winning streak snapped by the Colts a week ago. The Texans can now shift their attention to securing the AFC South title, but will they be focused enough on a short week against a bad team like the Jets?
Saturday's action concludes with Cleveland in Denver to face the Broncos. Both teams are still technically alive in the AFC playoff picture, but the loser of this game can get their vacation plans set in stone as they'll basically be out of it, barring a tremendous amount of help throughout the league.
So where should your money be going on Saturday? Let's get to plays for both contests:
Sportsbetting.ag Best Bet #1: New York Jets +6
Any NFL team that goes on an extended winning streak like the Texans did definitely deserves some praise, but the Texans run was still one that does deserve some skepticism. Hardly any of Houston's foes during that nine-game run currently have a winning record, and none of them at the time of playing Houston during that stretch either.
You can't blame the Texans for beating who's on their schedule, but it's easy to overstate how impressive a streak like theirs was when looking at the opponents they've faced. Granted, the Jets fall into the same category as many of those past Houston opponents as a sub-.500, struggling team, but the Jets do catch Houston in a spot where a few things aren't exactly in the Texans favor.
For one, this is Houston's first road game in nearly a month as they've spent the last three games at home. Four of Houston's nine wins have come away from home this year, but three of those four were decided by three points or less. Add in the fact that their is one less day for both sides in terms of it being a “normal” week with the Saturday game, and the team that's got to travel on top of all their preparation (Houston), does have to deal with that disadvantage as well.
Furthermore, there is the narrative working against the Texans having just had their long winning streak snapped. Teams that get their “bubble burst” so to speak, can take a game or two before that confidence and execution levels get back to optimal levels.
For a Houston team that's only had one of their six previous road games decided by more than six points in their favor, adding another negative scenario like a possible letdown spot for Houston this week does them no favors.
Finally, we can't forget about this Jets team here who has actually made a point of trying to be competitive the past three weeks. They were in the game for three full quarters against the Patriots before somehow failing to cover that number, and have responded with back-to-back ATS wins in two games that were decided by four points or less. These games are still plenty meaningful to New York in terms of QB Sam Darnold's progress, and he and the Jets have already had plenty of success offensively against AFC South teams this year.
New York has scored 26 or more points in their games against Tennessee and Indianapolis respectively, the two teams still with a shot at chasing Houston down in that division.
This Texans defense can be had – especially in the secondary – if the QB gets time in the pocket, and the Jets do rank 13th in the league in QB sack percentage (6.21%). With Darnold having already missed a few games because of injury, keeping him upright, healthy, and improving as a football player is New York's #1 goal in these final three weeks.
The Jets feisty play should continue into this week against a potentially flat Houston squad, and this is just too many points to pass up. The underdog is on a 4-0 ATS run when these two meet up, but more importantly, Houston's 1-7 ATS run off a SU loss suggests that this organization has a tough time picking up the pieces after a defeat, let alone their first one in more than two months.
Sportsbetting.ag Best Bet #2: Cleveland/Denver Over 45.5
With the season essentially being on the line for both sides here, the only way I can look at this game is going 'over' the number. There will be no holding anything back offensively from either side with those stakes, and I'm not sure either side – especially Cleveland – wants to really trust their defense to get the critical stops late to preserve a victory.
Trusting their defense is something more up the Broncos alley, as they've been one of the league's better units in terms of points allowed. Only the Jets and Chiefs have managed to score 30 or more against the Broncos, and surprisingly enough it was New York that put the most points up on this Denver team with 34.
Aside from that, Denver has held down some very good offenses (Rams to 23, Houston to 19, Chargers to 22, Pittsburgh to 17) as they've climbed back into the Wild Card picture. Yet, none of those games had Denver's (or their opponent's) season on the line and you've got to account for that in terms of extra aggression in the play-calling.
This total has already been bumped up a full point thanks to some early action, and I would venture a guess it could go even higher up until kick-off. Cleveland QB Baker Mayfield isn't going to reign things in at all during this game, especially if the Browns are playing from behind most of the time, and over-aggression can lead to points going the other way.
And while both teams have some of the best 'under' bets in recent weeks – Cleveland is on a 1-3 O/U run while Denver is on a 0-5-1 O/U run – it's felt like only a matter of time for both organizations that we get an 'over' to come in rather easily. I believe this will be that game for both, as neither offense will want to leave anything in the tank with the fate of their season on the line.
Houston Texans vs. New York Jets Preview and Predictions 2018-12-15
A pair of lengthy losing streaks came to an end last week for both the Houston Texans and New York Jets, who have decidedly different goals heading into the final three games of the season. New York is trying to finish on a strong note after ending a six-game slide while Houston hopes to inch closer to a division title entering Saturday's matchup at the Jets.
The Texans are sitting atop the AFC South and are in the running for the No. 2 overall seed and a first-round bye in the playoffs despite having a nine-game winning streak halted by visiting Indianapolis last week. Houston follows up Saturday's matchup with a game at Philadelphia next weekend so its bracing to play in adverse conditions by practicing outdoors. "Our weather right now is not like it is in New York or Philly, but it's not great here right now," Texans coach Bill O'Brien said. "So, I think that's good. Then we'll just do things during practice to kind of help show him what the elements might be like to the best of our ability." Rookie Sam Darnold, the No. 3 overall pick in this year's draft, returned from a three-game absence to rally New York to a 27-23 victory at Buffalo last week.
TV: 4:30 p.m. ET, NFL Network. LINE: Texans -6. O/U: 41.5
ABOUT THE TEXANS (9-4): Houston's defense was burned for 399 yards by Indianapolis' Andrew Luck but it ranks fifth in scoring (19.9 points) and should have an easier time containing New York's pedestrian passing attack. The Texans also are fifth against the run (88.2 yards) and likely will try to apply pressure on Darnold with edge pass rushers J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney, who have combined for 19.5 sacks. Quarterback Deshaun Watson has been part of a ground game that averaged 146.1 yards during the winning streak, but running backs Lamar Miller and Alfred Blue were limited to 54 yards last week. Wideout DeAndre Hopkins had a season-low 36 yards last week but has 1,151 yards and nine TDs on the season.
ABOUT THE JETS (4-9): Darnold did not put up eye-popping numbers against the Bills, completing 16 of 24 passes for 170 yards with one touchdown and one interception, but he directed a winning scoring drive after Buffalo went ahead with 2 1/2 minutes to play. "As a kid, you dream of converting two-minute drives and going down there and scoring," said Darnold, who was intercepted seven times in his previous three games before he was hurt. With Isaiah Crowell ailing and sitting out practice Thursday, Elijah McGuire is expected to get the start after rushing for 60 yards and the game-winning TD on Sunday. New York's defense has struggled against the run, allowing an average of 132.0 yards rushing.
EXTRA POINTS
1. Watson has a 112.9 passer rating in his last seven games, throwing for 13 TDs against two interceptions.
2. McGuire had a season-high 83 yards from scrimmage last week.
3. Hopkins has a touchdown reception in his last five road games.
PREDICTION: Texans 23, Jets 20
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Cleveland Browns vs. Denver Broncos Preview and Predictions 2018-12-15
The Denver Broncos' disheartening setback in their last outing not only ended their promising three-game winning streak, it also positioned them one game behind four others in the mad dash for the sixth and final seed in the AFC playoffs. The Broncos bid to dust themselves off and post their 12th consecutive win over the Cleveland Browns on Saturday night when the clubs meet in Denver.
"Our record right now, we're still in it, and every game now is a must-win. We haven't talked about that, but we have to now: Every game that we play is a must-win," coach Vance Joseph said of his Denver team that dropped a 20-14 decision at San Francisco on Sunday to reside behind Baltimore (7-6), Miami (7-6), Indianapolis (7-6) and Tennessee (7-6). Joseph also took aim at offseason acquisition Case Keenum following his third straight sub-200-yard performance, saying that the quarterback "has to make more plays." Top overall pick Baker Mayfield, however, has found success since Cleveland fired former head coach Hue Jackson and named Freddie Kitchens as the offensive coordinator, throwing 11 touchdowns in his last five games while improving his quarterback rating to 114.4 in that stretch following Sunday's 26-20 win over Carolina. Mayfield will look to exploit a vulnerable Broncos secondary that is without Pro Bowler Chris Harris Jr. (fractured left fibula) and could be missing fellow cornerbacks Tramaine Brock (ribs) and Isaac Yiadom (separated right shoulder).
TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, NFL Network. LINE: Broncos -3. O/U: 45.5
ABOUT THE BROWNS (5-7-1): While Mayfield's bravado is readily available for the cameras, fellow rookie Nick Chubb has earned the nickname "Old School" for his quiet demeanor. Chubb's play on the field speaks volumes, however, as the 22-year-old recorded a rushing touchdown in his fifth straight game versus the Panthers and eighth overall (six rushing, two receiving) in seven contests since taking over the starter's role after Cleveland traded fellow running back Carlos Hyde to Jacksonville. Wideout Jarvis Landry found the end zone twice (one receiving, one rushing) last week and had two touchdown grabs among his seven receptions in his only career encounter at Denver in 2014 while playing with Miami. "You have to get him going early. You have to get that momentum," Mayfield said of Landry. "Then he is a guy who he feeds off that momentum, that energy and that confidence."
ABOUT THE BRONCOS (6-7): Linebacker Bradley Chubb told reporters that he won't ease up on Nick Chubb, who is his second cousin. "I know he's not going to hold back and he knows I'm not going to hold back," said Bradley Chubb, who has posted a franchise rookie-record 12 sacks this season. "It's just going to be a regular football game. You can't put too much weight on it because then if you start thinking, 'My cousin's on the other side,' you end up getting trucked or something." Fellow rookie Phillip Lindsay rushed for his sixth touchdown in four games last Sunday, although he was limited to just 30 yards on 14 totes to drop his NFL-best yards per carry average on the season to an impressive 5.8. Lindsay will face Cleveland's generous 28th-ranked rush defense needing just 33 yards to reach 1,000 on the season.
EXTRA POINTS
1. Cleveland DE Myles Garrett has collected 7.5 of his club-high 12.5 sacks in his past seven games.
2. Denver LB Von Miller has recorded 9.5 of his team-best 13.5 sacks in his last eight contests.
3. Browns CB Damarious Randall has two of his club-high four interceptions in the past three games.
PREDICTION: Browns 23, Broncos 16
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NFL
Long Sheet
Week 15
Saturday. December 15
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HOUSTON (9 - 4) at NY JETS (4 - 9) - 12/15/2018, 4:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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CLEVELAND (5 - 7 - 1) at DENVER (6 - 7) - 12/15/2018, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 15-29 ATS (-16.9 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 15-29 ATS (-16.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 14-27 ATS (-15.7 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 12-24 ATS (-14.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 26-45 ATS (-23.5 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
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NFL
Week 15
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Trend Report
Saturday. December 15
Houston Texans
Houston is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Houston is 6-12 ATS in its last 18 games
Houston is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 9 games
Houston is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Houston is 7-16 SU in its last 23 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 7 games on the road
Houston is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing NY Jets
Houston is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing NY Jets
New York Jets
NY Jets is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
NY Jets is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of NY Jets's last 10 games
NY Jets is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home
NY Jets is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Jets's last 5 games at home
NY Jets is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Houston
NY Jets is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Houston
Cleveland Browns
Cleveland is 5-19-1 SU in its last 25 games
Cleveland is 5-12-1 ATS in its last 18 games on the road
Cleveland is 1-24 SU in its last 25 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Cleveland's last 21 games on the road
Cleveland is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Denver
Cleveland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cleveland's last 7 games when playing Denver
Denver Broncos
Denver is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
Denver is 8-16-1 ATS in its last 25 games
Denver is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games
Denver is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games at home
Denver is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 7 games when playing Cleveland
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