Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Saturday 12/21/19
Saturday’s games
Texans (9-5) @ Buccaneers (7-7)— Houston beat Titans 24-21 LW to grab one-game lead in AFC South; they host Titans next week. Texans won three of last four games, with all three wins by 6 or less points- they converted 23 of last 46 on 3rd down. Houston is 3-3 SU in true road games; they are underdog in all six games. Last four years, Texans are 0-3-1 as road favorites. Five of heir last seven games went under. Tampa Bay won its last four games, scoring 34.8 ppg; they threw ball for 913 yards last two weeks. Bucs are 2-3 SU at home TY; they’re 7-2 ATS in last nine games as a home dog. Houston won last three series games, all by 10+ points. AFC South non-divisional faves are 6-8 ATS this year, 2-1 on road; NFC South dogs are 10-10 ATS, 4-2 at home.
Bills (10-4) @ Patriots (11-3)—First place in AFC East is on line here. NE picked off four passes, blocked punt for TD in 16-10 (-7) Week 4 win at Buffalo; Patriots only TD drive was 50 yards. Bills outgained Patriots by 151 yards (375-224) but four turnovers are usually fatal. NE won 28 of last 31 series games; Bills are 6-3-1 ATS in last ten visits to Foxboro. Buffalo beat Steelers for first time in 20 years LW; they’re 6-1 SU on road TY, 4-0-1 ATS as a road underdog. Six of their last seven games stayed under. New England split its last six games after an 8-0 start; they’re +17 in turnovers their last nine games. Patriots are 23-11-3 ATS in last 27 games as a home favorite, 3-3 TY. Under is 9-5 in their games this year, 4-2 at home.
Rams (8-6) @ 49ers (11-3)— Rams went 56 yards for TD on first drive, gained 101 yards rest of day in 20-7 home loss to SF in Week 6; Rams had scored 42.7 ppg in winning previous three series games. Underdogs covered four of last five series games played here. LA split its last four games overall, giving up 45-44 points in the losses- they need win to stay alive in playoff hunt. Rams are 4-3 SU in true road games TY- in McVay era, they’re 4-1 ATS as a road underdog, 1-0 TY; seven of their last nine games stayed under. 49ers are coming off last-second home loss to Atlanta; they split their last six games after an 8-0 start. Niners are 5-2 SU at home TY, 3-4 ATS as a home favorite. Six of their last eight games went over the total.
by: Josh Inglis
SHERMINATOR
The San Francisco 49ers will have PFF’s No. 1 cornerback Richard Sherman back for their Week 16 matchup versus the L.A. Rams on Saturday night. If the Niners can win out, they can clinch the No.1 seed in the NFC and getting Sherman back will only boost the No. 2 DVOA defense, which faces a Rams offense that is averaging the second-most passing yards a game since Week 13.
No team has held opponents to a lower passing-yard total at home than the Niners. Through seven home games, teams are only managing 134 yards passing per game versus San Francisco, no quarterback has topped 232 yards, and only two QBs have eclipsed 200 yards.
Jared Goff has passed for over 1,000 yards in the last three weeks, but those were against Bottom-15 DVOA defenses. Against Top-10 defenses, Goff has averaged 176 yards, including a 78-yard performance against the 49ers in Week 6.
We like San Francisco with a big bounce-back game this week and it starts with its defense. We’re taking the Under on Goff’s passing total on any number above 225 yards.
SATURDAY MATINEE
Already down WR Mike Evans, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will most likely be without standout receiver Chris Godwin for Saturday’s 1 p.m. ET game. Coach Bruce Arians told reporters on Tuesday that he will look to get his running backs involved in the passing game to compensate for the loss.
Ronald Jones could be the biggest beneficiary of this situation. RJ2 leads the Bucs’ backfield in targets since Week 10, turning eight targets into five grabs for 50 yards the last two weeks. Not great output, but considering the Texans are allowing the most receiving yards to opposing RBs on the year, there’s optimism that Jones could yield 25-plus yards Saturday.
We’re waiting for Jones’ prop market to open and will look to grab the Over on his receiving total on any number below 35 yards.
BEATING THE BILLS EARLY
Sticking with Saturday, we have our eye on a first-quarter play that will feature two elite defenses and one offense that’s struggling to put up points early in December.
The Buffalo Bills haven’t scored a first-quarter point in three games and are averaging just 1.9 points in the opening 15 minutes across seven road games this year. In their last three games, they are 0-2-1 ATS versus the first-quarter spread and will have to fend off a New England Patriots team that leads the league in first-quarter points scored at home. The Pats offensive struggles apparently don’t apply to the first quarter as the defending Super Bowl champs are putting up a robust 9.3 points in the opening frame at Gillette Stadium this year.
We expect this game to be a close battle, but just love the value of the Pats’ first-quarter spread of -0.5 for +115 with the Bills’ ineffective early offense.
Saturday's Tip Sheet
Kevin Rogers
Texans (-3, 49 ½) at Buccaneers – 1:00 PM EST
Unfortunately, it’s too little, too late for Tampa Bay (7-7 SU, 5-8-1 ATS), who is playing its best football towards the end of the season. The Buccaneers started 2-6, but have caught fire by winning five of their last six games, while riding a four-game hot streak to reach .500 for the first time since Week 4. The key behind this resurgence has been quarterback Jameis Winston, who is the current leader in passing yards in the NFL.
Winston is the first player in NFL history to throw for over 450 yards in consecutive games, as tossed 456 yards in a 38-35 home triumph over the Colts in Week 14, followed by a 458-yard effort in last Sunday’s 38-17 rout of the Lions. Winston passed Dallas’ Dak Prescott for the lead in the passing yardage category as the former top pick has eclipsed the 300-yard passing mark 10 times this season, although the Bucs are 5-5 in those games.
The Texans (9-5 SU, 7-7 ATS) are one step closer to back-to-back division titles as Houston held off Tennessee last Sunday in Nashville, 24-21. Houston rebounded from an ugly home loss to Denver the previous week as the Texans built a 14-0 halftime lead behind a pair of touchdown passes from Deshaun Watson to Kenny Stills. Watson was intercepted twice for the second straight game, but Houston improved to 6-2 ATS this season in the underdog role.
A victory by Houston on Saturday will clinch the AFC South championship, or the Texans can celebrate on Sunday if the Titans lose at home to the Saints. The Texans face the Titans once again at NRG Stadium in Week 17 in a potential winner-take-all contest, but it will only matter if Houston loses and Tennessee wins in Week 16.
Houston has not been a reliable favorite this season by posting a 1-5 ATS mark, with the lone cover in this situation coming in a 53-32 blowout of Atlanta in Week 5 as four-point chalk. However, the Texans have gone 4-2 SU in those games with three of those victories coming by three points or less.
Tampa Bay started the season with road underdog victories against Carolina and Los Angeles, but the Bucs slumped in the ‘dog role by failing to cover in five straight opportunities when receiving points. The Bucs ended that skid with a Week 12 blowout of the Falcons, as Tampa Bay is in the home underdog role for only the second time this season.
From a totals perspective, Tampa Bay is riding an incredible 11-1 OVER run, while topping the 30-point mark seven times in this stretch. The Texans have seen the UNDER cash in the last three road contests, while not eclipsing the 28-point mark in the past eight games overall.
Bills at Patriots (-6 ½, 36 ½) – 4:30 PM EST
The AFC East has been dominated by New England (11-3 SU, 8-6 ATS) over the last 16 seasons as the Patriots have captured 15 division titles. However, Bill Belichick’s team still hasn’t wrapped up the division yet heading into Week 16, as New England needs to fight off a feisty Buffalo squad, that clinched a playoff berth last week.
With a victory on Saturday, New England can celebrate its 11th consecutive AFC East title. The Patriots bounced back from a home loss to the Chiefs in Week 14 to rout the hapless Bengals, 34-13 last Sunday as 10 ½-point road favorites. Cincinnati actually led, 10-7 after the first quarter before New England scored 20 unanswered points to take control. Tom Brady threw for less than 200 yards for the third time in four games as the future Hall of Famer racked up a season-low 128 yards, although he connected on a pair of touchdown passes.
The Bills (10-4 SU, 9-4-1 ATS) improved to 6-1 on the road this season after holding off the Steelers last Sunday night, 17-10 as one-point underdogs. Buffalo’s defense intercepted Pittsburgh quarterback Devlin Hodges four times, while Josh Allen hit Tyler Kroft on a 14-yard touchdown for the go-ahead score in the fourth quarter. The Bills cashed the UNDER in six of seven road games this season, as Buffalo has allowed 20 points or less in each contest away from New Era Field.
In the first matchup this season in Buffalo back in Week 4, the Patriots edge the Bills, 16-10 for their eight consecutive road win in the series. The Bills covered as seven-point underdogs in spite of falling behind 13-0 after the first quarter. New England was limited to one field goal in the final three quarters, while its only touchdown came on a blocked punt return in the first quarter. Brady was limited to 150 yards, while the Patriots were picked up only 11 first downs compared to 23 first downs for Buffalo.
In the last five visits to Gillette Stadium, the Bills have not busted the 17-point mark, but are 2-3 in the past five trips to Foxborough. Granted, one of those victories came in 2016 when Brady was serving his four-game suspension for “Deflategate” in a 16-0 shutout by the Bills. The Patriots are 15-1 at home against the Bills with Brady starting at quarterback as the lone loss came in Week 17 in 2014 in a contest that he played only the first half.
The Bills are currently on a 4-0 run to the UNDER, while seeking their fifth cover in the road underdog role. The Patriots are 4-2 to the OVER at Gillette Stadium, as New England has scored just 29 points in its last two home contests against Kansas City and Dallas.
Rams at 49ers (-6 ½, 45) – 8:15 PM EST
The two-year run of NFC West championships for Los Angeles (8-6 SU, 9-5 ATS) will come to an end this season as either San Francisco or Seattle will be crowned the division title. The Rams need a miracle if they want an opportunity to defend their NFC championship as Los Angeles needs to win out and for Minnesota to lose to Green Bay and Chicago in order to clinch a Wild Card berth.
The Rams suffered a crucial blow to their playoff hopes in a 44-21 rout at the hands of the Cowboys last Sunday. Los Angeles knocked off Arizona and Seattle in consecutive weeks to reach 8-5, but Dallas ran off 30 unanswered points after Todd Gurley’s touchdown run to make it a 7-7 game early in the second quarter. Gurley was limited to 20 yards on 11 carries as the Rams have lost three road games in a season for the first time in Sean McVay’s three-year tenure as head coach.
The 49ers (11-3 SU, 8-5-1 ATS) are not in the clear for a first-round bye yet after getting stunned by the Falcons last Sunday, 29-22. Atlanta scored two touchdowns in the final two seconds, which sounds hard to believe, but Matt Ryan connected with Julio Jones on the go-ahead score, then the Falcons recovered a fumble in the end zone after several desperation laterals on the ensuing kickoff to give OVER backers a miracle win on the total of 50.
San Francisco began the season at 8-0, but the Niners are 3-3 the last six games and face Seattle on the road next Sunday for the NFC West title. Kyle Shanahan’s team owns a dreadful 0-5-1 ATS mark as a favorite of six points or more this season, which includes home defeats to the Seahawks and Falcons. Depending on how things break over the final two weeks, the Niners could sit with home-field advantage in the NFC, or be relegated to Wild Card weekend since four teams currently possess 11-3 marks (Seattle, New Orleans, San Francisco, and Green Bay).
The Rams swept the 49ers last season, but San Francisco captured the first meeting in 2019 at the L.A. Coliseum back in Week 6. Los Angeles entered on a two-game skid and couldn’t get any offense going in a 20-7 setback to San Francisco as three-point home favorites. Gurley sat out that loss for the Rams with an injury, while quarterback Jared Goff was limited to 78 yards passing as L.A. tries to avoid their first sweep to San Francisco since 2016.
NFL
Long Sheet
Week 16
Saturday, December 21
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LA RAMS (8 - 6) at SAN FRANCISCO (11 - 3) - 12/21/2019, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS are 54-77 ATS (-30.7 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
LA RAMS are 16-30 ATS (-17.0 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
LA RAMS are 94-125 ATS (-43.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
LA RAMS are 146-192 ATS (-65.2 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS are 74-107 ATS (-43.7 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
LA RAMS are 72-105 ATS (-43.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
LA RAMS are 44-65 ATS (-27.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
LA RAMS are 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-2 against the spread versus LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
LA RAMS is 3-2 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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BUFFALO (10 - 4) at NEW ENGLAND (11 - 3) - 12/21/2019, 4:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 270-206 ATS (+43.4 Units) in all games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 270-206 ATS (+43.4 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 95-68 ATS (+20.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 207-151 ATS (+40.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 199-152 ATS (+31.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 130-88 ATS (+33.2 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 68-45 ATS (+18.5 Units) in December games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 129-92 ATS (+27.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 91-59 ATS (+26.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 65-41 ATS (+19.9 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
BUFFALO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games this season.
BUFFALO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road lined games this season.
BUFFALO is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 3-2 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 5-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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HOUSTON (9 - 5) at TAMPA BAY (7 - 7) - 12/21/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
TAMPA BAY is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) against AFC South division opponents since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
NFL
Week 16
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Trend Report
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Saturday, December 21
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay is 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 games
Tampa Bay is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Tampa Bay's last 12 games
Tampa Bay is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Tampa Bay is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games at home
Houston Texans
Houston is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 7 games
Houston is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Houston is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games on the road
New England Patriots
New England is 12-6 ATS in its last 18 games
New England is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
New England is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games
The total has gone UNDER in 17 of New England's last 25 games
New England is 16-7 ATS in its last 23 games at home
New England is 14-1 SU in its last 15 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of New England's last 11 games at home
New England is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Buffalo
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 5 games when playing Buffalo
New England is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Buffalo
New England is 16-2 SU in its last 18 games when playing at home against Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 5 games when playing at home against Buffalo
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Buffalo is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Buffalo's last 7 games
Buffalo is 7-0-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Buffalo is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Buffalo's last 9 games on the road
Buffalo is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing New England
Buffalo is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing New England
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing New England
Buffalo is 2-16 SU in its last 18 games when playing on the road against New England
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing on the road against New England
San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Francisco's last 8 games
San Francisco is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games at home
San Francisco is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing LA Rams
San Francisco is 15-7-1 SU in its last 23 games when playing LA Rams
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing LA Rams
San Francisco is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against LA Rams
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing at home against LA Rams
Los Angeles Rams
LA Rams is 13-6 ATS in its last 19 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of LA Rams's last 9 games
LA Rams is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
LA Rams is 18-6 SU in its last 24 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of LA Rams's last 11 games on the road
LA Rams is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing San Francisco
LA Rams is 7-15-1 SU in its last 23 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Rams's last 6 games when playing San Francisco
LA Rams is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
LA Rams is 3-7-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Rams's last 6 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
NFL
Dunkel
Week 16
Saturday, December 21
Houston @ Tampa Bay
Game 455-456
December 21, 2019 @ 1:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Houston
137.963
Tampa Bay
132.366
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 5 1/2
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 3
51
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(-3); Under
Buffalo @ New England
Game 453-454
December 21, 2019 @ 4:30 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Buffalo
136.754
New England
138.257
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 1 1/2
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 6 1/2
38 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Buffalo
(+6 1/2); Over
LA Rams @ San Francisco
Game 451-452
December 21, 2019 @ 8:15 pm
Dunkel Rating:
LA Rams
134.177
San Francisco
136.555
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Francisco
by 2 1/2
59
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Francisco
by 6 1/2
45 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA Rams
(+6 1/2); Over