Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Sunday 1/5/20
NFC Wild Card Notes
Minnesota at New Orleans
Sunday Jan. 5 (FOX, 1:05 p.m. ET)
Vikings Road Record: 4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS
Saints Home Record: 6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS
Opening Odds
The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook sent out New Orleans as an eight-point home favorite with a total of 46. The opening number has held steady overnight but the total has been pushed up to 47.
Head-to-Head
These teams have met three times over the last three seasons and all of those encounters took place at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minnesota. The Vikings own a 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS mark in those games but the numbers could be in bettor favor for the Saints if it wasn’t for the “Minneapolis Miracle” in the 2018 Divisional Playoffs. Minnesota would eventually get humbled a week later at Philadelphia while New Orleans was sent packing.
Playoff Notes
Despite the win over the Saints in the 2018 Divisional Playoffs, the Vikings haven’t had much success in the playoffs especially on the road. Minnesota is 3-7 SU and 4-6 ATS in its last 10 playoff games and that includes a 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS mark on the road.
Minnesota quarterback Kirk Cousins has only appeared in two playoff games and he’s produced a 0-2 record both SU and ATS. He only started once for Washington and it was blasted 35-18 at home to Green Bay in the 2016 Wild Card Round.
The playoff pedigree for New Orleans was once considered a no-brainer bet but recent trends have made bettors hesitant. Since QB Drew Brees started in “The Big Easy” in 2007, the Saints have gone 8-6 SU and 6-8 ATS. Recently, the club is 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS over the past two seasons and all three non-covers came at the Superdome. They could’ve easily covered a few of those game but the days of watching New Orleans ‘boat-race’ opponents at home hasn’t happened since 2012 when they routed the Lions 45-28 as 10 ½-point home favorite.
These teams met in the 2010 NFC Championship and New Orleans nipped Minnesota 31-28 in overtime. Brees and the Saints outlasted QB Brett Favre, who made a key interception late in the fourth quarter for the Vikings that cost them a chance to win the game in regulation. Two weeks later, New Orleans defeated Indianapolis 31-17 in the Super Bowl.
Total Notes
The ‘over’ went 9-7 for both the Vikings and Saints in the regular season. Normally a good ‘over’ bet at home, New Orleans saw a stalemate (4-4) at the Superdome despite the offense scoring 30-plus in six home games.
Minnesota watched the ‘over’ go 6-2 in its final eight games of the season and the ‘over’ was 5-3 on the road, which includes a run of five straight to the high side in their last five away games. During this span, the Vikings offense averaged 32.4 points per game.
New Orleans saw the ‘under’ cash in both home playoff affairs last season but that was preceded with a 5-0 ‘over’ run. Minnesota is on a 2-0 ‘over’ run in the playoffs, both results coming during its 2018 campaign. Prior to those games, the Vikings saw seven of their previous eight playoff games go ‘under’ the total.
Seattle at Philadelphia
Sunday, Jan. 5 (NBC, 4:40 p.m. ET)
Seahawks Road Record: 7-1 SU, 5-2-1 ATS
Eagles Home Record: 5-3 SU, 3-5 ATS
Opening Odds
The SuperBook opened the Eagles -1 but the number quickly flipped to the Seahawks -1. The total was sent out at 45 ½ and that number has held steady.
Head-to-Head
These teams met in Week 12 and Seattle captured a 17-9 win over Philadelphia a two-point road favorite. Including that win, the Seahawks have won and covered five straight games against the Eagles dating back to 2011. Seattle QB Russell Wilson is 4-0 all-time versus the Eagles and all four wins came by double digits and two of them occurred in the “City of Brotherly Love.” The ‘under’ has connected in all four of those games.
Playoff Notes
Seattle has gone 8-5 all-time in the postseason with Wilson at QB and that includes a 1-5 mark on the road. The ‘Hawks have dropped three straight playoff games on the road and the defense has surrendered 24, 36 and 31 points in those losses. The lone away win came in the 2016 Divisional Playoffs as Seattle nipped Minnesota 10-9 and the Vikings missed a late field goal in that decision.
Philadelphia has covered in each of its last five playoff appearances and it’s gone 4-1 SU in those games. The loss came in last year’s Divisional Playoff round at New Orleans, a 20-14 setback as an 8 ½-point road underdog. Fast Fact – The Eagles have closed as underdogs in each of those playoff matchups. The last time Philadelphia was favored in the playoffs came in 2014 when it lost 26-24 to New Orleans as a three-point home favorite in the Wild Card round.
Total Notes
As mentioned above, the ‘under’ has cashed in four straight encounters between the pair as Philadelphia was held to 12 PPG in those games.
Seattle watched the ‘over’ go 8-7-1 this season and that includes a 4-4 mark on the road. Scoring on the East Coast hasn’t been an issue for the club and we saw that this season as they averaged 26.8 PPG. Philadelphia produced an 8-8 total mark for bettors but the ‘under’ was 6-2 at Lincoln Financial Field. After allowing the Redskins and Lions to each put up 27 in Week 1 and 3 at home, the Eagles only allowed 13.3 PPG in their final six at home.
The Seahawks have watched the ‘over’ go 8-2 in their last 10 road playoff games. They’ve allowed 30.3 PPG in their last three postseason trips. The Eagles saw the ‘under’ go 2-0 in their two postseason affairs last season, and the offense scored 16 and 14 against the Bears and Saints respectively. Philadelphia watched the ‘over’ go 2-1 during its Super Bowl winning season in 2018. All five of those results came with QB Nick Foles, who was backing up Carson Wentz. This will be the first playoff appearance for Wentz.
NFL
Long Sheet
Sunday, January 5
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MINNESOTA (10 - 6) at NEW ORLEANS (13 - 3) - 1/5/2020, 1:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in dome games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 51-31 ATS (+16.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home games off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 2-1 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 2-1 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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SEATTLE (11 - 5) at PHILADELPHIA (9 - 7) - 1/5/2020, 4:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 71-48 ATS (+18.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 13-27 ATS (-16.7 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 2-0 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 2-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
145MINNESOTA -146 NEW ORLEANS
NEW ORLEANS are 10-2 ATS (7.8 Units) with <=6 days rest in the current season.
147SEATTLE -148 PHILADELPHIA
SEATTLE is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) in road games vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing <= 7.5 yards per return in the last 3 seasons.
NFL
Dunkel
Sunday, January 5
Minnesota @ New Orleans
Game 145-146
January 5, 2020 @ 1:05 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
131.480
New Orleans
143.309
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
by 12
57
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 7 1/2
49 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New Orleans
(-7 1/2); Over
Seattle @ Philadelphia
Game 147-148
January 5, 2020 @ 4:40 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Seattle
134.306
Philadelphia
129.239
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 5
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 1 1/2
45
Dunkel Pick:
Seattle
(-1 1/2); Over
Sunday
Vikings (10-6) @ Saints (5-10)— Saints won five of last seven series games; home team won both their playoff meetings, with Minnesota scoring GW TD on a 61-yard TD pass as time expired in their 29-24 win two years ago. NO beat Vikings 30-20 on road LY- this is Vikings’ first visit here in five years. Minnesota split its eight road games SU; they’re 1-2 ATS as a road underdog TY. Vikings are 7-1 TY when they allow 20 or fewer points, 3-5 when they allow more. Over is 8-3 in their last 11 games. New Orleans lost NFC title game at home LY; they’re in playoffs for third year in row. Saints scored 38 ppg in winning last three games overall. Minnesota is in playoffs for 3rd time in five years; they lost 38-7 at Philly in NFC title game two years ago.
Seahawks (11-5) @ Eagles (9-7)— Seattle (-1.5) won 17-9 here in Week 12, coming off their bye; Eagles didn’t score TD until last 0:20 of game- they turned ball over five times (-3). Seahawks won their last five games with Philly, also winning their last five visits here- their last loss in Philly was in 1989. Seahawks lost three of last four games overall to fall to #5 seed; they’re 7-1 SU on road TY, with only loss 28-12 to the Rams in Week 14. Seattle is in playoffs of 7th time in eight years; they won their first playoff game nine of last ten times they were in playoffs. Eagles won their last four games to win NFC East; they’re 5-3 SU at home TY. Philly is in playoffs for 3rd in row, winning this round 16-15 in Chicago LY. Under is 5-3 in their last eight games overall.
NFL
Trend Report
Sunday, January 5
New Orleans Saints
New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
New Orleans is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 7 games
New Orleans is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games at home
New Orleans is 20-5 SU in its last 25 games at home
New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
New Orleans is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 8 of New Orleans's last 11 games when playing Minnesota
New Orleans is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games when playing at home against Minnesota
Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Minnesota's last 8 games
Minnesota is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Minnesota is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 5 games on the road
Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New Orleans
Minnesota is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Minnesota's last 11 games when playing New Orleans
Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Philadelphia is 4-10-1 ATS in its last 15 games at home
Philadelphia is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games at home
Philadelphia is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Seattle
Philadelphia is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing Seattle
Philadelphia is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle
Philadelphia is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing at home against Seattle
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Seattle is 17-7 SU in its last 24 games
Seattle is 10-3-1 ATS in its last 14 games on the road
Seattle is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Seattle's last 12 games on the road
Seattle is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
Seattle is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Total Talk - WC Sunday
Chris David
Minnesota at New Orleans (FOX, 1:05 p.m. ET)
The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened this total at 46 and as of Wednesday morning, the number has been pushed up to 49 ½. This is the highest total of the Wild Card weekend and based on the public perception of shootouts in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, you can understand the uptick.
Even though quarterback Drew Brees and the Saints have the ability to light up the scoreboard, the ‘over’ was only 9-7 this season. More surprising, Minnesota owned a 9-7 ‘over’ record and that included a 5-3 mark to the high side on the road. Delving into that number further, the Vikings closed the season a 5-0 run as visitors and as much heat as QB Kirk Cousins takes, they averaged 32.4 points per game over that stretch. Minnesota went 3-2 in those games and the reason it didn’t do better was because the defense allowed 25.4 PPG. On the season, the Vikings were ranked sixth in scoring defense (18.9 PPG) but that number spiked against playoff teams (25.4 PPG). The Vikings went 1-4 in those games and that’s why Cousins gets criticized and why I often label Minnesota as a “bully” team.
The total results (4-4) at New Orleans for home produced a stalemate despite averaging 28.4 PPG. The attack did have two clunkers during this span, defeating Dallas 12-10 in Week 4 before getting humbled 26-9 by Atlanta in Week 10. New Orleans was ranked 13th in scoring defense (21.6 PPG) and while the unit has improved over the last few seasons, watching the 49ers captured a 48-46 road win over the Saints in Week 14 reminded us of those weaknesses. The loss to San Francisco was the only setback for New Orleans against a playoff team this season, who finished 4-1 overall. Make a note that all five of those games went ‘over’ the number and they were clear-cut shootouts with an average combined score of 64 PPG. If you take out the combined 94 points versus SF, the average is still strong at 56.5 PPG. These teams have met three times over the last three seasons and all of those encounters took place at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minnesota. The ‘over’ went 2-1 and that includes Minnesota’s improbable 29-24 win over New Orleans in the 2018 Divisional Playoffs.
Cousins has only started one playoff game in his career when he was with Washington and they were blasted 35-18 at home to Green Bay in the 2016 Wild Card Round. Meanwhile, the experience edge goes to Brees with an 8-6 record in the playoffs with New Orleans and the ‘over’ has gone 9-5 in those games.
Fearless Predictions
New Orleans saw the ‘under’ cash in both home playoff affairs last season as it rallied past Philadelphia 20-14 in the Divisional Playoffs before getting stunned 26-23 by the L.A. Rams in the NFC Championship. The totals on those games both closed in the fifties (52, 55) and I believe this one will too by kickoff. Prior to those results, the Saints were on a 5-0 ‘over’ run at home with Brees in the playoffs and the best production for the future Hall of Famer came in Wild Card game. New Orleans has averaged 40.3 PPG in its last three WC spots at home and I believe they put up another crooked number and cash its Win Total Over (28 ½). I do believe Minnesota will score as well and its Team Total (20) Over is tempting, but let’s keep it simple and drill the Over (49 ½) in the game only. I’ll call it New Orleans 42 Minnesota 27 in the Sunday’s opener.
Seattle at Philadelphia (NBC, 4:40 p.m. ET)
Of the four Wild Card playoff matchups, this is the only total that has seen early ‘under’ money. The SuperBook sent out an opener of 45 ½ and the total sits at 45 as of Wednesday evening. This is also the game that features a rematch from this year’s regular season as Seattle captured a convincing 17-9 road win over Philadelphia in Week 12 as a two-point road favorite and the ‘under’ (45 ½) was never in doubt. Both clubs had to deal with windy conditions at Lincoln Financial Field and that likely helped make the game very sloppy. The pair combined for seven turnovers, with the Eagles coughing it up five times. Plus, Seattle has 12 penalties and key drops by their wide receivers.
Including that win, Seattle has now won five straight against the Philadelphia and QB Russell Wilson is now 4-0 in his career against the Eagles while the ‘under’ has cashed in all four of those games. While everybody knows Seattle is one of the toughest venues in the NFL, what we’ve seen from Wilson in his career (38-25-1) on the road is impressive and the 7-1 record this season was tied for the best mark in the league as a visitor.
What’s more eye-opening is that Seattle has been able to score while traveling great distances and that’s been a common theme. In their last seven games played in the Eastern Time Zone, the Seahawks are averaging 27.4 PPG and that includes the 17-spot versus the Birds. The ‘over’ has gone 4-3 in those games and the numbers would probably be better but Seattle’s defense has been better on the road (21.1 PPG) this season than at home (28.6 PPG), which is crazy when many of us still reminisce about the “Legion of Boom” unit.
Philadelphia has some crazy home-away numbers as well, especially for totals. The Eagles saw the ‘over’ go 6-2 on the road but the ‘under’ was 6-2 at the Linc. The difference has been the Philadelphia defense, which allowed 16.8 PPG compared to an eye-opening 27.5 PPG on the road. Another factor helping the ‘under’ at home has been the inept Philadelphia offense. The unit posted 21 PPG at home and 27.1 PPG as visitors and all those stats produce identical 6-2 marks.
What head coach Doug Pederson and the Eagles did this season was incredible, especially winning their final four games with a short-handed club. It should’ve been five straight but people forget the embarrassing 37-31 collapse at Miami in Week 13. The one thing those opponents had in common is that none are in the playoffs. Against postseason clubs, Philadelphia went 2-3 and that includes a 0-2 record at home against the Seahawks and Patriots (10-17), both ‘under’ winners. Seattle went 3-3 against playoff teams this season, two of the victories coming on the road and the total went 1-1 in those games.
Fearless Predictions
Seattle has watched the ‘over’ go 8-2 in their last 10 road playoff games and they’ve allowed 30.3 PPG in their last three postseason trips. Those trends combined with Seattle’s ability to score on the East Coast lately should have you supporting the ‘over’ with confidence but the injuries and depth concerns for Philadelphia are hard to overlook. QB Carson Wentz, who’s making his playoff debut, has been playing great lately but I expect the home squad to lean on their defense and the form at home in their last six games (13.3 PPG) has been lights out. I don’t see both teams getting to 20 points and I believe kicking will be a key factor. I’d lean to ‘over’ bets in total field goals made but my only lean for this contest is on the Under (45). I see a 19-16 outcome here, likely Seattle, but whoever wins this game will get lit up for 30-plus points at Green Bay or San Francisco in the Divisional Playoffs.
Sunday's Best Bets
Matt Blunt
Earlier in the week I touched on what to expect from the Saturday card opening up this year's NFL Playoffs, and hopefully those two games in the AFC play out as expected. Sunday's action is all about the NFC though, and in general, I do believe it's a harder card to break down overall.
The New Orleans Saints are laying over a TD against Minnesota in a rematch of the “Minneapolis Miracle” from a couple of years ago. And then after that, you've got a Seattle team that's outperformed their stat lines all year long, have got just a +7 point differential on the year – every other playoff team except for Houston (-7) is at least +31 in that category (Philadelphia) – as a small road favorite against the Eagles who didn't exactly light the world on fire either.
Home dogs in the playoffs should always at least get some consideration, and in this case, Seattle does fit the profile of a team that deserves to be faded in their current role. But that also means you've got to back Philly, a team that's been ravaged by injuries all year long. It really is a tough card through and through, however, after stepping back for a few days and really thinking about this board, one specific solution into how to wager on these two games did seem to always get circled back around too.
Minnesota at New Orleans (1:00 p.m. ET)
Seattle at Philadelphia (4:40 p.m. ET)
Best Bet: 6-point Teaser: New Orleans -1.5 to Philadelphia +7.5
The fact that there are quite a lot of bettors out there in the market that have already seemingly given this game as a win to New Orleans is a little concerning. The Kirk Cousins futility in big games continually gets brought up as reasoning, and given that the weekend's action is likely going to have the Saints tied up in a lot of teasers and/or ML parlays, oddsmakers would love to see Cousins shed that 'choker' label and win this game outright. That is definitely a bit of concern in making this play, but you can count me among the masses who does believe that New Orleans will win this game outright.
The Saints at home are borderline unstoppable, at least on offense, and I'm not sure the Vikings have what it takes to put up the likely 30+ they'll need to threaten the Saints. New Orleans offense finished the year by putting up 34+ in each of their last four games, and 30 or more in eight of their last 10. Yes, their defense might have some cracks, but those types of cracks usually don't start showing up for division winners until later rounds of the playoffs. At home, with one of the best home field advantages in the league, the Saints should find a way to come out victorious. The point spread of -8 does seem a tad inflated and it's why I'm not interested in screwing around with a game that could easily land a point or two on either side of that spread.
Landing on the Eagles as the second leg of this teaser, as those of you who have read my NFL previews regarding Eagles games this year know I'm not the biggest believer in this team and especially their QB. But Wentz did step up when he needed to in the final month of the season, although let's pump the breaks on talks of him regaining his potential MVP form of 2017; Wentz absolutely needed to play hero against the Giants, Redskins and Cowboys of all teams in that final stretch.
But teasing the Eagles up is much more about fading a Seattle team who is still overvalued despite a recent decline back to Earth. The Seahawks lost their final two games, and three of their final four to slip into this #5 seed and will probably end up getting burned in the playoffs because of it. The only reason Seattle comes into this game laying chalk is based on record discrepancy, as a 7-1 SU record on the road probably doesn't hurt as well.
Yes, it's been a long time since the Eagles faced a quality foe, as their last game against a currently playoff team was actually hosting Seattle in late November, a game that finished 17-9 in Seattle's favor. That lack of competition (and overall healthy talent) the Eagles have recently dealt with is what has me shying away from backing them on the outright point spread, or even outright to win the game in general, but teasing them up through those key numbers of +3 and +7 makes a heck of a lot more sense.
This game could end up coming down to a single score one way or the other – Seattle played in single-score games (8 points or less) 12 different times this year, and did fairly well in those games. That seems to be their level of comfort late in games, and it's the most likely outcome for this one as well.
Eventually, the winner of this game probably gets their ass handed to them next week against the 49ers or Packers, but for this week, I'll take as many points as I can with the underdog and hope it's a close game throughout.
NFL Wild Card Weekend betting cheat sheet: Impact injuries, weather, Pros vs Joes and more
Patrick Everson
Dalvin Cook took a breather in Week 17 to rest his shoulder, but he'll be good to go for Minnesota on Sunday at New Orleans. The Vikings opened +8, and sharp play moved the number to +7.5.
NFL Wild Card Weekend has arrived, and with it a little primer on the four games – two Saturday, two Sunday. Covers checks in on everything from injury updates to weather to Pros vs. Joes clashes and more, with insights from Eric Osterman, manager at The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.
Injury Impact
MINNESOTA VIKINGS: The biggest news is that running back Dalvin Cook (shoulder), who sat out last week probably as more a precaution than anything, will play Sunday at New Orleans. “Cook is worth a half-point,” Osterman said. “He was one of the top backs in the league this year when he was healthy.” The Vikings opened +8 and moved to +7.5 Tuesday.
HOUSTON TEXANS: Wideout Will Fuller (groin) is questionable Saturday against Buffalo, but Osterman said if he sits, it would probably only be reflected in the juice. “He is a big part of the Texans’ offense. It wouldn’t affect the spread too much, most likely a move from Texans -2.5 (-120) to -2.5 (-110).”
Star defensive end J.J. Watt is returning from a torn pectoral muscle suffered Oct. 27. “I would say Watt has a similar effect to Fuller at this point. If he goes out there and plays well, then it could be more of an adjustment if the Texans move on.”
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: Put on your Macaulay Culkin shocked face: Julian Edelman (knee/shoulder) is questionable for the umpteenth week in a row. Osterman said that had no impact, as The SuperBook fully expected him to play Saturday night at home against Tennessee. The Patriots are -5.5.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: Tight end Zach Ertz (ribs/back) sat out last week against the Giants and is questionable Sunday at home against Seattle. However, Ertz’s status was already factored into the number by The SuperBook’s oddsmaking team, as was wideout Nelson Agholor (knee) being ruled out for the fifth time in six weeks. The Eagles are 1.5-point underdogs.
Weather Watch
TENNESSEE AT NEW ENGLAND: There’s a 70 percent chance of rain Saturday in Foxborough, Mass., along with winds approaching 20 mph and temperatures in the mid- to high-30s. However: “No effect on the total in this game. It’s actually gone up.” Indeed, The SuperBook opened the total at 41.5 and reached 44.5 Thursday.
SEATTLE AT PHILADELPHIA: No precipitation is expected, but it could be a little windy, approaching 20 mph. “The total has come down a half-point” from the opener. After opening at 45.5 and ticking up to 46, it’s now at 45.
Pros vs. Joes
MINNESOTA AT NEW ORLEANS: “A lot of public money on the Saints, and we’ve seen some sharp bets come in on the Vikings. That’s why the line has come down from 8 to 7.5.”
SEATTLE AT PHILADELPHIA: “The Seahawks are the most-bet team so far of all four games. Public money on Seahawks spread and moneyline. Sharps on Eagles a little bit so far.” Seattle is laying 1.5 points.
Reverse Line Moves
MINNESOTA AT NEW ORLEANS: Picking up on the Pros vs. Joes action, the public cash on the Saints outweighs the sharp play on the Vikings, but the number tightened from New Orleans -8 to -7.5.
SEATTLE AT PHILADELPHIA: Same situation. This line quickly flipped Sunday night from Eagles -1 to Seahawks -1 and stretched to Seattle -2.5 Monday morning. But later Monday, it tightened to Seahawks -1.5 after sharp play on Philly +1.5, even though the public cash on Seattle is greater.
WC - Vikings at Saints
Kevin Rogers
The NFC Wild Card round kicks off at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans as the Saints (13-3 SU, 11-5 ATS) finished with the exact same record as last season when they held home-field advantage in the playoffs. However, since San Francisco and Green Bay owned tiebreakers with identical 13-3 marks, New Orleans was relegated to the Wild Card round for the fifth time since 2010.
The Saints cruised to their third consecutive NFC South title as their three division foes all finished below the .500 mark. New Orleans actually concluded the 2019 season with a better road record (7-1) than at home (6-2), as five playoff teams posted a 7-1 away mark (Chiefs, Ravens, 49ers, and Seahawks the others). The road ledger doesn’t mean much here as the Saints have compiled a 21-6 SU and 13-14 ATS mark in the last three seasons at the Superdome.
After losing the NFC Championship rematch with the Rams in Week 2 and quarterback Drew Brees to a thumb injury, the Saints banded together behind backup Teddy Bridgewater to win five consecutive games. During that unexpected hot stretch, New Orleans won at Seattle and knocked off Dallas in the underdog role, while four of the five wins came as a ‘dog. Brees returned in Week 8 against Arizona and continued the winning streak with a blowout of the Cardinals, 31-9 as 12 ½-point favorites.
New Orleans was tripped up by Atlanta following the bye week as 14-point home favorites, 26-9, but the Saints won the next three games to wrap up the NFC South championship on Thanksgiving night. The Saints fell short in the most exciting game of the season against the top-seeded 49ers in Week 14 in a 48-46 setback in spite of 349 yards and five touchdown passes from Brees. New Orleans closed out the regular season with three straight wins by double-digits each, but the scenarios didn’t work out for the Saints to grab a first-round bye.
The Vikings (10-6 SU, 9-7 ATS) were on the doorstep of the Super Bowl two seasons ago after shocking the Saints in the NFC divisional round (more on that in a moment), but were flattened by the eventual Super Bowl champion Eagles in the conference title game. Minnesota fell flat in 2018 with a 8-7-1 record and missed the postseason, but the Vikings rebounded to make the playoffs for the third time in the last five seasons.
Following a 2-2 start, the Vikings won four consecutive games, although only one of those victories came against a playoff squad (Philadelphia in Week 6). Minnesota was in the driver’s seat for a Wild Card berth, but couldn’t catch Green Bay for the top spot in the NFC North as the Vikings lost their final two games of the season to settle for an opening weekend contest in the playoffs.
The Vikings split eight games away from U.S. Bank Stadium this season, as Minnesota eclipsed the 28-point mark in five of those contests. In the role of a road underdog, Mike Zimmer’s squad won at Dallas, but lost to a pair of playoff teams on the road in setbacks to Green Bay and Seattle, while also falling on the highway at Kansas City as a favorite. Dating back to last season, the Vikings have lost seven of eight games to playoff clubs, with the lone victory coming at Philadelphia in 2018.
In one of the most famous playoff finishes in recent memory, the Vikings stunned the Saints, 29-24 in the 2017 divisional round. The “Minneapolis Miracle” began as a Vikings’ blowout with them cruising past New Orleans to a 17-0 halftime lead before Brees rallied the Saints to a 24-23 advantage in the final minute. Case Keenum kept Minnesota’s season alive by hooking up with wide receiver Stefon Diggs on a 61-yard touchdown strike as time expired to give the Vikings the dramatic triumph. However, the Vikings failed to cash as 5 ½-point favorites as Keenum kneeled on a pointless two-point conversion, which ultimately led to a rule change eliminating extra point tries on a walk-off touchdown.
New Orleans and Minnesota didn’t meet this season, but the Saints picked up a modicum of revenge in 2018 with a 30-20 victory at U.S. Bank Stadium. The Saints fell behind in the first half again, trailing 13-7 before New Orleans scored 23 unanswered points, which included three Wil Lutz field goals, an Alvin Kamara touchdown run and an interception return for a touchdown. Brees only threw for 120 yards, compared to the 359 yards racked up Minnesota quarterback Kirk Cousins, but the former Michigan State standout owns a 2-10 record with the Vikings against teams with winning records.
The Saints have failed to cover in their last three home playoff games since 2017, including in the Wild Card round two seasons ago against Carolina. New Orleans jumped out to a 21-6 advantage as 6 ½-point favorites, while leading 31-19 with 5:08 remaining. However, Panthers’ star running back Christian McCaffrey broke away on a 56-yard touchdown pass from Cam Newton to help Carolina grab the road cover in spite of a 31-26 defeat.
Last season, the Saints erased a 14-0 deficit to the Eagles by outscoring Philadelphia, 20-0 over the final three quarters for a 20-14 win in the divisional round as 8 ½-point favorites. The NFC Championship at the Superdome wasn’t so super for the Saints, who squandered a 13-0 lead in a 26-23 overtime setback to the Rams, which was capped off by the pass interference not called in the final two minutes, which would have given New Orleans a first down and run the clock down for the game-winning field goal.
The Vikings last won a Wild Card game in 2004 at Green Bay, while dropping Wild Card contests in 2008, 2012, and 2015. The only good news for Minnesota is at least one road underdog has escaped Wild Card weekend in the NFC in three of the past four seasons, including Philadelphia’s 16-15 triumph of Chicago last season.
WC - Seahawks at Eagles
Kevin Rogers
The final Wild Card contest of the weekend takes place at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia showcasing the lone home underdog in this round. The Eagles (9-7 SU, 7-9 ATS) owned the worst record of any of the 12 playoff teams, but by virtue of winning the NFC East crown, they are able to remain at home in the opening round.
Philadelphia didn’t look like it would head to the playoffs after getting shocked at Miami as 10 ½-point road favorites, 37-31 in Week 13. The Eagles slipped to 5-7, but finished December strong by winning their final four games, including a crucial 17-9 home triumph over the Cowboys in Week 16. Philadelphia moved into the driver’s seat of capturing the division title as the Eagles grabbed the crown in the season finale against the Giants in a 34-17 rout to clinch their third straight playoff berth under head coach Doug Pederson.
Quarterback Carson Wentz is making his playoff debut after injuries derailed the past two seasons for the second pick of the 2016 draft. Wentz is coming off a career-high 4,039 yards passing this season, which included not one wide receiver racking up more than 500 yards. Two tight ends posted above 500 yards receiving, including Zach Ertz, who put up 918 yards and six touchdowns as he looks to suit up after missing the Week 17 win at New York with a rib injury.
The Eagles are not only riding a four-game winning streak, but have covered each of their last three contests. Only two of Philadelphia’s nine victories came against playoff squads an each of those wins came on the road at Green Bay and Buffalo. In three opportunities as a home underdog, the Eagles scored a total of 36 points, while owning a 1-2 SU/ATS record with a win over Dallas and losses to New England and Seattle.
The Seahawks (11-5 SU, 7-8-1 ATS) squandered an excellent opportunity to take home the NFC West title for the first time since 2016, but couldn’t take care of its business at CenturyLink Field. Seattle headed into Week 16 tied with San Francisco at 11-3 atop the division with two home games remaining, but lost to Arizona in Week 16 as eight-point favorites, 27-13.
In spite of that unexpected defeat, Pete Carroll’s squad still had a chance to win the NFC West by virtue of a head-to-head tiebreaker against San Francisco, but the Seahawks didn’t pull off the season sweep of the 49ers. San Francisco jumped out to a 13-0 halftime lead, as Seattle rallied to creep within 26-21, while having an opportunity to win in the final minute. The Seahawks were within one yard of a division title, but were stuffed at the goal line on fourth down as Seattle has to travel cross-country for the playoff opener.
Quarterback Russell Wilson likely won’t win the league MVP due to the breakout season from Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson, but the Seattle signal-caller racked up the second-most passing yards in his career (4,110), while throwing 31 touchdowns and a career-low five interceptions. The battered Seahawks’ backfield received some help from a familiar face as Marshawn Lynch came out of retirement to sign with Seattle and scored a one-yard touchdown in the loss to San Francisco.
Seattle excelled away from the Pacific Northwest this season by compiling a 7-1 record on the highway. The Seahawks ventured to the Eastern Time Zone five times and won all five games at Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Atlanta, Philadelphia, and Carolina. Granted, Seattle faced three backup quarterbacks (Mason Rudolph, Matt Schaub, and Kyle Allen), but the Seahawks topped the 28-point mark in three of those contests. Seattle handed San Francisco its first loss of the season in Week 10 as an underdog, while putting together a 2-1-1 ATS mark as a road favorite.
The Eagles have covered all five playoff games under Pederson the last two seasons, although Nick Foles was the quarterback and not Wentz. Philadelphia knocked off Atlanta and Minnesota as an underdog on its run to the franchise’s first Super Bowl title in 2017, while cashing in the ‘dog role against Chicago and New Orleans last season. The last time a home team was listed as an underdog in the Wild Card round came in 2015 when a trio of clubs lost as the Bengals (+2) fell to the Steelers, 18-16, the Texans (+3) were blanked by the Chiefs, 30-0, and the Vikings (+4 ½) dropped a 10-9 decision to the Seahawks.
The Seahawks have won the past five meetings with the Eagles dating back to 2011, capped off by a 17-9 triumph at Lincoln Financial Field in Week 12 as one-point favorites. Seattle put together its best defensive effort of the season as Philadelphia was limited to a field goal until scoring its lone touchdown with 20 seconds remaining trailing, 17-3. The Eagles shot themselves in the foot multiple times by turning the ball over five times, including a pair of interceptions thrown by Wentz. In three career starts against Seattle, Wentz is 0-3, while the Eagles have scored 9, 10, and 15 points in those matchups.
Seattle thrived on the road this season, but that hasn’t been the same story in the playoffs of late. The Seahawks have lost three consecutive away contests in the postseason, including a 24-22 setback at Dallas last January. Seattle owns a 2-4 SU/ATS record as a road favorite in the playoffs with Wilson at quarterback, as the last postseason victory away from CenturyLink Field came in the 2015 Wild Card round at Minnesota.