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NFL Betting News, Match-Ups and Trends For Sunday 10/22/23

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(@shazman)
Posts: 60755
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Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites.

 
Posted : October 21, 2023 6:57 pm
(@shazman)
Posts: 60755
Member Moderator
Topic starter
 

Falcons (3-3) @ Buccaneers (3-2)
— Falcons scored 24-25-21 points in their wins, 6-7-16 in losses.
— Atlanta lost only true road game, 20-6 (+3) at Detroit.
— Falcons are 3-3, but haven’t led (0-5-1) at halftime yet.
— Atlanta has been outscored 73-36 in first half of games.
— Under Smith, Falcons are 9-11-1 ATS in games coming off a loss.
— Ridder is 5-5 as an NFL starting QB, 0-4 on the road.
— Atlanta is 13-22-2 ATS in last 37 games with spread of 3 or less.
— Falcons are 8-4 ATS in last 12 NFC South road games.
— Falcons allowed three TD’s last week, on drives of 11-47-24 yards.
— Under is 12-2 in their last 13 games overall, 5-1 TY.
— Team total: under 4-2. Opponents’ team total: under 2-2-2

— Tampa Bay scored 20-27-26 points in wins, 11-6 in losses.
— Bucs have 10 takeaways in five games (+6 turnovers)
— Bucs ran ball for 102.3 yards/game in wins, 41-46 in losses.
— Tampa Bay has allowed 8 TD’s on 50 drives.
— Buccaneers are 2-5-1 ATS in last eight games as home favorites.
— Bucs are 7-5-1 in last 13 games with spread of 3 or less.
— Under is 4-1 in Tampa Bay’s games this season.
— Buccaneers are 5-6 ATS in last 11 NFC South home games.
— Mayfield is 35-41 as an NFL starter (1-1 in playoffs)
— Team total: over 2-2-1. Opponents’ team total: under 4-0-1

— Buccaneers won six of last seven series games.
— Falcons are 3-5 ATS in last eight visits to Tampa.
— Over is 6-2 in last eight meetings.

Raiders (3-3) @ Bears (1-5)
— QB Garoppolo (back) didn’t play 2nd half LW (check status).
— Hoyer was 6-10/102 in 2nd half LW; he is 16-24 as a starter.
— Hoyer’s last win as a starter was back in 2016, playing for Chicago.
— Rookie QB O’Connell was 24-39/238 in Week 4 loss at Chargers.
— Raiders scored 17-10-18-17-17-21 points in first six games. 
— Under is 5-1 in Raider games this season.
— Last two years, Las Vegas was 0-6 ATS as a road favorite.
— Raiders are 14-9-1 ATS last 24 games with spread of 3 or less.
— Raiders are 4-5 ATS in last nine games coming off a win.
— Las Vegas converted 13 of last 29 third down plays.
— AFC West teams are 6-11 ATS outside the division.
— Garoppolo is 43-19 as an NFL starting QB. 
— Team total: under 6-0. Opponents’ team total: under 4-2

— QB Fields dislocated his thumb LW; rookie Bagent is back-up.
— Bagent was 10-14/83 passing LW; this would be his first NFL start.
— Chicago lost five of first six games, giving up 31 ppg.
— Last three games, Bears outscored opponents, 54-22 in first half.
— For season, Bears have been outscored 107-58 in second half.
— Bears are 10-30 SU/14-24-2 ATS the last 2+ years.
— Chicago is minus-4 in turnovers this season.
— Chicago is 5-8 ATS in last 13 games as home underdogs.
— Fields is 6-25 SU as an NFL starter; Bagent is 0-0.
— Chicago is 14-24-3 ATS in last 41 games coming off a loss.
— Five of their six games went over the total.
— NFC North teams are 6-10-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 4-2. Opponents’ team total: over 5-1

— Bears won four of last six series games.
— Raiders are 1-2 SU/ATS in last three visits to Chicago; all three games were decided by 3 or less points.

Browns (3-2) @ Colts (3-3)
— QB Watson has bruised shoulder (check status)
— Backup QB Walker was 18-34/192 with 2 INT’s in LW’s upset of 49ers. 
— Browns scored 34-22-27 points in games when Watson played.
— Browns gave up 3-3-17 points in their wins, 26-28 in losses. 
— Cleveland lost only road game, 26-22 (-2.5) at Pittsburgh.
— Last four games, Cleveland is minus-6 in turnovers (4-10).
— Browns have 95 first downs, their opponents only 52.
— since 2013, Cleveland is 4-11 ATS as a road favorite (0-1 TY).
— Cleveland is 11-18-2 ATS in last 31 games with spread of 3 or less.
— Opponents have converted only 15-65 third down plays.
— Under is 4-1 in Cleveland games the season.
— AFC North teams are 8-5-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: over 4-1. Opponents’ team total: under 3-2

— Last three weeks, Colts were outscored 47-16 in first half.
— Backup QB Minshew is 9-17 as an NFL starter, 1-1 TY.
— Colts gave up 31-29-37 points in losses; 20-19-16 in wins.
— Indy lost two of its three home games TY.  
— Indy has scored 20+ points in all six games.
— since 2020, Colts are 4-4 ATS as a home underdog.
— since 2013, Colts are 41-29-2 ATS in games coming off a loss.
— Colts are 6-11 ATS in last 17 games with spread of 3 or less.
— Over is 4-2 in Indy’s six games this season. 
— AFC South teams are 9-6 ATS outside the division. 
— This is 7th year in row Colts have a different #1 QB
— Team total: over 4-1-1. Opponents’ team total: under 3-3

— Colts won seven of last nine series games.
— Browns lost 31-28/17-13 in last two visits to Indianapolis.
— Under is 5-3 in last eight meetings.

Lions (5-1) @ Ravens (4-2)
— Detroit won/covered its last four games. 
— Lions are 3-0 on road: 21-20 at KC, 34-20 at GB, 20-6 at Tampa.
— Lions outscored last three opponents 92-26 in first half.
— Under Campbell, Detroit is 11-6 ATS as a road underdog.
— Under Campbell, Lions are 28-11-1 ATS overall.
— Detroit converted 20 of last 43 third down plays.
— Last three games, Lions are +5 in turnovers (6-1).
— Goff is 61-49-1 as an NFL starter, 17-19-1 with the Lions.
— Under Campbell, Lions are 11-3 ATS in games coming off a win.
— NFC North teams are 6-10-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: over 3-3. Opponents’ team total: under 4-2

— Ravens scored 24+ points in its wins, 19-10 in losses.
— Baltimore defense has allowed only five TD’s on 69 drives.
— Baltimore is 14-2 ATS in last 16 games with spread of 3 or less.
— Ravens are 5-11 ATS in last 16 games as a home favorite.
— Ravens are 8-13 ATS in last 21 games coming off a win.
— Baltimore is minus-5 in TO’s in its losses, +2 in wins.
— Lamar Jackson is 50-21 as an NFL starter (1-3 in playoff games)
— Under is 5-1 in Baltimore games this season.
— AFC North teams are 8-5-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 3-3. Opponents’ team total: under 4-1-1

— Ravens won last four series games (3-1 ATS)
— Lions lost 44-20/48-3 in last two visits to Baltimore.
— Over is 3-2 in last five meetings.

Bills (4-2) @ Patriots (1-5)
— Last two games, Buffalo scored one first half TD on 11 drives. 
— Bills allowed 10-3-20-9 points in wins, 22-25 in losses. 
— Bills have converted 37-76 third down plays this year. 
— Bills are 26-20-1 ATS in last 47 games as a favorite.
— Buffalo is 14-10 ATS in last 24 games as a road favorite.
— Bills outscored last five foes 82-26 in second half.
— Bills are 9-6-1 ATS in last 16 AFC East road games.
— Josh Allen is 51-30 as an NFL starter.
— Bills are 21-14-1 ATS in last 36 games coming off a win.
— Three of their last four games stayed under the total.
— Team total: over 3-3. Opponents’ team total: under 4-1-1

— Patriots lost their last three games by a combined 93-20.
— Patriots were outscored 62-6 in first half of those games.
— New England is minus-8 in turnovers this year.
— Last four games, Patriots have 3 offensive TD’s on 46 drives. 
— Since Brady left, NE is 26-30 SU in regular season, 0-1 in playoffs.
— Patriots are 2-5 ATS in their last seven AFC East home games.
— Mac Jones is 17-21 as an NFL starting QB.
— Last two games, Patriots were outgained 1.029-668.
— Patriots are 17-19-1 ATS in last 37 games coming off a loss.
— Under is 5-0-1 in New England games this season.
— Team total: under 6-0. Opponents’ team total: 3-3 over

— Buffalo won six of last seven series games.
— Bills are 5-2 ATS in last seven visits to Foxboro.
— Over is 4-2 in last six meetings.

Commanders (3-3) @ Giants (1-5)
— Washington is 1-3 giving up 33+ points, 2-0 if they allow less.
— Commanders’ TD drives last week: 11-47-24 yards. 
— Commanders are 3-0 ATS on road, scoring 35-31-24 points.
— since 2018, Washington is 5-2 ATS as a road favorite.
— Washington is 6-4 ATS in last ten NFC East road games. 
— Last four weeks, Commanders were outscored 63-37 in 1st half.
— Over is 3-2 in Washington’s last five games.
— 2nd-year QB Howell is 4-3 as NFL starter.
— Washington is 15-8-1 ATS in last 24 games coming off a win.
— Team total: 4-2 over. Opponents’ team total: over 5-1

— Backup QB Taylor was 24-36/200 passing in LW’s 14-9 loss. 
— Giants were 10-19 on 3rd down LW (26-73 first five games)
— Giants lost last four games, by 18-21-5-5 points.
— Giants were outscored 94-25 in first half of their games. 
— Giants are averaging only 265.5 yards/game this season.  
— Big Blue lost last last two games, despite being +5 in turnovers.
— Giants are 9-20 ATS in last 20 games as a home underdog.
— Last four games, Giants were outscored 51-15 in second half.
— Last four games, Giants have one TD, 12 3/outs on 39 drives.
— Giants are 2-5 ATS in last seven NFC East home games.
— Team total: under 4-2. Opponents’ team total: over 4-2

— Giants are 5-2-1 SU in last eight series games.
— Washington is 4-3 ATS in last seven visits to the Garden State.
— Under is 6-1 in last seven meetings.

Cardinals (1-5) @ Seahawks (3-2)
— Arizona is 0-3 SU/ATS last three games, losing by 19-14-17 points.
— Cardinals have been outscored 98-30 in 2nd half of games. 
— Last five games, Arizona gave up 28.4 ppg.
— Cardinals have lost 16 of last 19 games SU (7-9 ATS in last 16).
— Cardinals are 19-12-1 ATS in last 32 NFC West road games (0-2 TY)
— QB Dobbs is 1-7 as an NFL starter.
— Arizona is 10-7 ATS in last 17 games coming off a loss.
— Last four games, Cardinals allowed 15 TD’s on 44 drives.
— Four of last five Cardinal games went over the total.
— Team total: over 4-2. Opponents’ team total: over 3-3

— Seahawks scored 37-37-24 points in wins, 13-13 in losses.
— Seahawks were outscored 40-6 in second half of their losses.
— Seahawks won/covered three of last four games. 
— Seattle have converted only 18-55 third down plays.
— Seattle is 2-5 ATS in last seven NFC West home games. 
— Seattle is 4-8 ATS in last 12 games as a home favorite.
— Seahawks are 14-11 ATS in last 25 games after a loss.
— Geno Smith is 25-31 as an NFL starter, 13-13 with Seattle.
— Seattle is 19-21 SU last 2+ years, after going 34-18 from 2018-20.
— Team total: over 3-2. Opponents’ team total: over 3-2

— Seahawks won eight of last 11 series games.
— Cardinals are 6-2 ATS in last eight visits to Seattle.
— Under is 6-3 in last nine meetings.

Steelers (2-2) @ Rams (3-3)
— QB Pickett was banged up before bye (check status)
— Pickett is 10-7 as an NFL starter; backup Trubisky is 31-26.
— Steelers scored 26-23-17 points in wins, 7-6 in losses.
— Last two games, Pittsburgh was outscored 26-3 in first half.
— Steelers have been outgained by 121 yards/game this season.
— Pittsburgh is 7-1 SU in last eight games decided by 8 or less points.
— Four of five Steeler games stayed under the total.
— Steelers have 10 takeaways in last four games (+6)
— Pitt is 28-15-1 ATS in last 44 games when spread was 3 or fewer points.
— Steelers won their last six post-bye games (4-2 ATS)
— Team total: under 2-2-1. Opponents’ team total: over 3-2

— LA scored 30-29-26 points in its wins, 23-16-14 in their losses.
— Rams’ top two RB’s (Williams, Rivers) are expected to miss this game.
— Rams are 3-0 when they run ball for 90+ yards, 0-3 when they don’t.
— Rams are 21-44 on 3rd down in wins, 14-39 in losses. 
— Under McVay, Rams are 18-20 ATS as a home favorite.
— Stafford is 96-107-1 as an NFL starter, 22-14 with the Rams.
— Rams have led only once this year (1-4-1) at halftime.
— Rams are 6-11-1 ATS in last 18 games coming of a win.
— Under is 3-1 in Rams’ last four games.
— NFC West teams are 9-3-1 ATS outside their division.
— Team total: over 3-3. Opponents’ team total: under 4-1-1

— Steelers won/covered last four series games, by average of 24-11.
— Steelers haven’t played in LA/Anaheim since 1994.
— Last three meetings stayed under the total.

Chargers (2-3) @ Chiefs (5-1)
— Chargers are 2-3 SU; all five games were decided by 7 or less points. 
— Last four games, Chargers converted only 17-53 third down plays.
— Chargers are 5-2-1 ATS in last eight games as a road underdog.
— Bolts are 4-7-1 ATS in last 12 AFC West road games.
— Chargers have five takeaways (+3) in wins, one (minus-1) in losses.
— Herbert is 27-28 as an NFL starter.
— Chargers have scored 15 TD’s on 51 drives, allowed 14 TD’s on 51 drives.
— Opponents are 5-25 on 3rd down in LA wins, 15-35 in losses.
— Under Staley, Chargers are 8-7-1 ATS coming off a loss.
— Last three Charger games stayed under the total. 
— NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 7-9 ATS.

— Chiefs won last five games, by 8-31-3-7-11 points (4-1 ATS).
— Chiefs converted 30 of last 54 third down plays.
— KC has outscored opponents 101-28 in first half.
— KC has been outscored 50-46 in second half.
— KC is 12-14 ATS in last 26 games as a home favorite.
— Chiefs held last five opponents under 5.7 yards/pass attempt.
— Chiefs are 16-24-1 ATS in last 41 games coming off a win.
— Chiefs are 3-7 ATS in last ten AFC West home games.
— Mahomes is 80-20 SU as an NFL starter.
— Team total: under 5-1. Opponents’ team total: under 5-1

— Chiefs won 15 of last 18 series games SU.
— Chargers are 8-3 ATS in last 11 visits to Arrowhead.
— Over is 6-4 in last ten meetings.

Packers (2-3) @ Broncos (1-5)
— Last three weeks, Packers were outscored 54-6 in first half.
— Last three weeks, Packers outscored foes 45-14 in 2nd half.
— Green Bay converted 7 of last 23 third down plays.
— Last three games, Packers are minus-4 in turnovers.
— Packers are 13-12-2 ATS in last 27 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
— Green Bay has outscored opponents 38-0 on 1st drive of a half.
— Jordan Love is 2-4 as an NFL starter.
— Packers are 6-8-1 ATS in last 15 games vs AFC opponents.
— Over is 3-2 in their games this season.
— Green Bay is 3-5 SU/3-3-1 ATS in last seven post-bye games.
— Team total: under 3-2. Opponents’ team total: under 3-2

— Broncos are 1-5 SU/0-6 ATS so far this season.
— Broncos gave up 36.6 ppg in their last five games.
— Denver actually led three of its six games at halftime. 
— Denver has been outscored 99-62 in 2nd half of games.
— Last four weeks, Broncos were outgained by 204 yards/game.
— Broncos are 5-14-1 ATS last 20 games with spread of 3 or less points.
— Denver is 2-5 ATS in last seven games vs NFC opponents.
— Four of last four Bronco games went over the total.
— Russell Wilson is 118-76-1 as an NFL starter, 5-16 with Denver.
— Team total: under 4-2. Opponents’ team total: over 4-2

— Green Bay won/covered four of last five series games.
— Packers split last two visits to Denver (underdog won both).
— Under is 3-2 in last five meetings.

Dolphins (5-1) @ Eagles (5-1)
— Miami won/covered five of first six games, scoring 37.2 ppg.
— Last three games, Miami is minus-6 in turnovers (0-6).
— Overall, Dolphins have scored 30 TD’s on 65 drives.
— Under McDaniel, Miami is 3-3 ATS as a road underdog.
— Dolphins are 9-7 ATS in last 16 games vs NFC opponents.
— Dolphins are 23-12 ATS in last 35 games coming off a win.
— Four of their six games went over the total.
— Tagovailoa is 26-14 as an NFL starter.
— AFC East teams are 9-7 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: over 4-2. Opponents’ team total: under 3-3

— Eagles lost 20-14 to Jets last week, after a 5-0 start.
— Under Sirianni, Eagles are 4-5 ATS coming off a loss.
— Philly won first five games (3-1-1 ATS), scoring 25-34-25-34-23 points.
— Eagles ran ball for 80 yards LW (previous four weeks, 180.8 yards/game).
— Last two weeks, Eagles didn’t score TD in 2nd half (outscored 11-6).
— Under Sirianni, Eagles are 30-14 SU.
— Under Sirianni, Eagles are 9-4-1 ATS as home favorites (0-1-1 TY).
— Eagles are 11-14 ATS in last 25 games vs AFC opponents.
— Hurts is 30-14 as an NFL starter.
— Under is 3-1 in their last four games. 
— Team total: over 3-2-1. Opponents’ team total: under 3-3

— Miami won last two series games, 37-31/20-19.
— Dolphins split their last two visits to Philadelphia.
— Three of last four meetings stayed under the total.

 
Posted : October 21, 2023 6:59 pm
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