NFL Betting News, Match-Ups and Trends For Sunday 11/17/19

Cowboys (5-4) @ Lions (3-5-1)— Stafford (back) missed his first start since 2010 LW; check status- he was raised in Dallas, by the way. Detroit lost five of its last six games; they’re 2-2 SU at home- underdogs covered all four of their home games. Lions allowed 31+ points in 3 of 9 games; under Patricia, they’re 4-4 as a home underdog. Five of Detroit’s last seven games went over. Cowboys are 5-0 when they score 31+ points, 0-4 when they don’t; they’re 2-2 SU on road, 7-4-1 ATS in last 12 games as road favorites, 2-2 TY. Dallas won last three series games, by 11-21-2 points; they split last four visits to Detroit- last one was in 2013. NFC East non-divisional faves are 3-9 ATS this year, 0-5 on road; NFC North underdogs are 5-3, 2-0 at home.

Saints (7-2) @ Buccaneers (3-6)— New Orleans (-3) beat Tampa Bay 31-24 in Week 5, with Bridgewater at QB; Saints converted 8-15 on 3rd down, outgained Bucs 457-252- they gained 9.6 yards/pass attempt. Saints are 5-4 in last nine series games, splitting last four visits here. NO won six of its last seven games; they’re 8-3 ATS in last dozen games as a road favorite (0-0 TY). Three of Saints’ last four games went under. Bucs lost four of their last five games overall, two of three at home; they’re 2-4 in games decided by 7 or fewer points. Tampa Bay covered seven of last eight games as a home underdog; Arians was 7-4-1 as a home dog when he was Arizona’s coach. Six of Tampa’s last seven games went over the total.

Falcons (2-7) @ Panthers (5-4)— November 17, and this is Falcons’ 1st game outdoors this year. Atlanta came off its bye and shocked the Saints in Superdome; was it a fluke? Falcons are 1-4 on road; they’re 2-9 ATS in last 11 games as a road underdog, 1-3 TY- they’re 2-10 ATS in last dozen games on natural grass. Last three Atlanta games stayed under the total. Carolina lost two of last three games after a 4-2 start; they converted only 12 of last 52 third down plays. Panthers split four home games, are 5-3 ATS in last eight games as a home favorite, 2-1 TY- four of their last five games went over. Falcons won six of last seven series games, winning last three by 12-7-14 points; they won three of last five visits to Charlotte.

Jaguars (4-5) @ Colts (5-4)— Brissett is a ?; check status. Foles (injured in Week 1) is back at QB for Jaguars, who covered three of four road games with Minshew at QB. Jags are 3-5-1 ATS in last nine games as a road underdog, 2-1 TY. In their wins, Jaguars are +8 in turnovers; in losses, minus-10. Jax covered seven of last nine post-bye games. Indy lost its last two games by total of six points; they’re 3-2 at home- under Reich, Colts are 5-6-1 ATS as home favorites, 2-3 TY. 6 of their 9 games were decided by 3 or fewer points, or in OT. Over is 3-2 in Indy home games. Home side won seven of last eight series games, with Jaguars winning five of last seven, but they’ve lost five of last six visits to Indy..

Broncos (3-6) @ Vikings (7-3)— Minnesota won five of last six games; under Zimmer, they’re 25-8-1 ATS as a home favorite, 3-1 TY. In their last four games, Vikings converted 27-54 on 3rd down. Four of their last five games went over. Broncos covered four of last six games as a road underdog (2-1 TY). Four of their last five games went under. Denver won last three series games, all by 3 points; six of last seven series games were decided by 4 or fewer points. Broncos won three of last four visits to Minnesota. NFC North non-divisional home favorites are 6-5 ATS; AFC West underdogs are 8-4 ATS, 4-3 on road. Denver is 22-7 ATS in last 29 post-bye games, 7-2 in last nine. Vikings covered their last ten pre-bye games.

Jets (2-7) @ Redskins (1-8)— Rookie QB Haskins makes 2nd career start here; Redskins lost last three games, outscored 52-18- they didn’t score any offensive TD’s on their last 23 drives. Jets are 0-4 on road TY, with all four losses by 14+ points; they’re 7-14-2 ATS in last 23 games as road underdogs, 1-2 TY. Jets converted only 18 of last 97 3rd down plays; four of their last five games went over. Jets won last two series games, 34-19/34-20, after losing eight of previous nine meetings; Gang Green lost four of six visits here, with last one in ’11. Redskins are 2-9 ATS in last 11 post-bye games. NFC East non-divisional favorites are 3-9 ATS this year, 3-4 at home; AFC East underdogs are 6-6-1, 3-3-1 on road.

Bills (6-3) @ Dolphins (2-7)— Buffalo (-17) beat Miami 31-21 in Week 7, but were outgained by 76 yards in game Dolphins led 14-9 at the half. Bills ran an onside kick back for a TD for the final margin. Buffalo is 9-4 in last 13 tries games, splitting last six visits here. Miami won its last two games, after an 0-7 start; they led their last four games at halftime. Dolphins were outscored 145-31 in 2nd half of games; they’re 9-6-1 ATS in last 16 games as a home underdog, 2-3 TY. Six of their last eight games went under total. Buffalo lost two of last three games after a 5-1 start; Bills won three of their four road games, with average total of 32.8 (under 4-0)- under McDermott, they’re 2-1 ATS as a road favorite. Six of their eight games stayed under.

Texans (6-3) @ Ravens (7-2)— Houston won four of its last five games; they’re 2-2 SU in true road games TY, with losses by 2-7 points. Texans are 6-2 ATS in last eight games as road dogs, 3-1 TY. Baltimore won its last five games, covered last three, scoring nine TD’s on 15 drives in their last two games; Ravens are 3-8 ATS in last 11 games as home favorite, 0-3 TY. Underdogs covered all four of their home games TY. Six of their last eight games stayed under. Teams split last four meetings, after Ravens won previous six; Texans are 0-5 in Baltimore, losing last one 23-16 in ’17. AFC North non-divisional home favorites are 0-8-1 ATS this year; AFC South road underdogs are 8-3. Texans covered six of last eight post-bye games.

Cardinals (3-6-1) @ 49ers (8-1)— Short week for 49ers after physical OT loss to Seattle Monday nite; under Shanahan, 49ers are 4-5 ATS as a home favorite, 2-2 TY- their last two games were both decided by a FG. SF’s last three games went over total. Arizona lost its last three games, last two by a FG each; they converted only five of last 30 third down plays. Redbirds covered four of five games as a road underdog TY. Four of their last six games went over. 49ers (-10) won 28-25 in Arizona two weeks ago, converting 11-17 on 3rd down in game they led 21-7 at the half. Arizona had won 8 in row over SF before that game; they’ve won last four visits to Santa Clara, last three by 10+ points.

Patriots (8-1) @ Eagles (5-4)— Rematch of Eagles’ 41-33 win in SB 52 but Foles is a Jaguar now; Patriots won last two visits here- average total in last four series games, 63.5. Patriots are 4-1 SU on road, with three wins by 26+ points; they’re 17-11 ATS in last 28 games as a road favorite, 3-2 TY. Six of their nine games stayed under. Philly won three of its four home games; they’re 2-4 when they allow 24+ points, 3-0 when they don’t. Eagles ran ball for 364 yards in their last two games, after running ball for 111.7 ypg in first seven games. Under Pederson, Eagles are 4-2 as home dogs, 0-0 TY. AFC East non-divisional favorites are 6-3 ATS, 2-0 on road; NFC East non-divisional home underdogs are 1-4 ATS.

Bengals (0-9) @ Raiders (5-4)— Winless Bengals covered only one of last six games, but they’re 9-3 ATS in last dozen games as a road underdog, 3-1 TY. First road start for rookie QB Finley, who was 16-30/167 in his first NFL start, an awful 49-13 home loss to Ravens. In their last three games, Cincy is minus-6 in turnovers. Oakland won its last two games; none of their five wins are by more than eight points. Raiders are 2-1 SU at home; since 2018, they’re 2-0 ATS as home favorites. Under is 4-2-1 in their last seven games. Cincy won last three series games by average score of 32-13, but they lost three of last four visits to Oakland. AFC North non-divisional road underdogs are 5-3 ATS; AFC West favorites are 6-9 ATS, 4-6 at home.

Bears (4-5) @ Rams (5-4)— Chicago lost four of last five games; they’re 4-1 when they allow 15 or fewer points, 0-4 when they allow more. Bears converted only 11 of last 48 third down plays- their last three games went under total. Rams on 3rd down: in their wins, 35-73 (47.9%), losses 8-45 (17.8%); LA’s offensive line has injury issues, with rookies starting at guard now. Rams lost their last two home games; under McVay, they’re 7-10 ATS as home favorites.LA’s last four games stayed under the total. Chicago won six of last seven series games, beating LA 15-6 at home LY on a cold December nite. NFC North non-divisional road underdogs are 5-3 ATS, 3-3 on road; NFC West home favorites are 3-6.

Chiefs (6-4) vs Chargers (4-6) (@ Mexico City)— Mahomes threw for 446 yards LW in his return from injury, but Chiefs lost 35-32, their 4th loss in last six games. Under Reid, Chiefs are 13-9 ATS as a road favorite, 3-2 TY. KC lost its last three pre-bye games, allowing 41.7 ppg. Chargers lost four of last six games; they’re 2-6 SU this year in games decided by 7 or fewer points, LA is 2-3 away from home TY, with four of those games decided by 3 or fewer points. Underdogs are 8-1-1 ATS in Charger tilts TY; under Lynn, Bolts are 8-3-2 ATS as an underdog, 2-0-1 TY. Seven of their last nine games went under total. Chiefs’ last three games all went over. Chiefs won nine of last 10 series games, losing 29-28 at home to Bolts in last meeting LY.

Hot & Not Report - Week 11
Matt Blunt

Week of November 11th

Last week's piece proved to be right on the money for nearly everything, as post-London teams remained winless ATS this year with both the Bengals and Rams losing SU and ATS, as the two games split the over/under as well. That makes it 5-1 O/U this year for teams post-London trip, and 0-6 ATS for them in that same role, with the Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars being the last two teams to fill that particular role.

Week 11 sees Houston on the road to face the same scorching hot Baltimore team that did force Bengals fans to the hard liquor early as I expected, while Jacksonville's also out on the road in visiting a Colts team who can't be thrilled that they just lost to the Dolphins of all teams. Those same post-London numbers would suggest plays on Baltimore and 'over' and Indianapolis and 'over' so keep that in mind as you work through the Week 11 board.

With those potential 'play on' spots already in our back pocket for Week 11, there are a couple other specific scenarios applicable to Week 11's contests that should be brought to light.

Whether you want to fade them, follow them, or pass on the game all together is up to you, but hopefully these angles can be informative nonetheless.

Who's Hot

NFL Teams that score 9 points or less (since Week 6) are on a 7-2 ATS run the following week; 12-10 ATS on the year

Chalk up this run as a positive for those that are of the mindset that teams are able to bounce back after a bad performance. So often we talk about what a certain team did in their last game, that those results become way more influential the following week then they need to be by far. You see a team get smoked one week and it's just easy to assume that will continue, rather then stepping back and looking at the much larger picture.

And in today's edge of NFL being an “Any given Sunday” type league where anybody can win against anyone, it seems to be that teams that don't find a way to get it going offensively, have had minimal issues in bouncing back strong as of late.

A game of scoring 9 or fewer points almost always chalks up to a loss – unless you are San Francisco beating up on Washington in extreme bad weather – and nobody in the NFL likes to string losing weeks together. Losing a game when you get beat is one thing, but when teams beat themselves with poor execution and don't even give themselves a chance to win games is where the motivational angle the following week can hold more weight. And given the run for these teams that don't execute on offense – for whatever reason – the following week against the number, they are sides you should be seriously interested in.

For Week 11 we actually get three teams alive in this scenario (pending the MNF result), as both the Jacksonville Jaguars and Washington Redskins are live in this situation coming off a bye. Those two teams are added by New Orleans in this spot, after the Saints dismal showing as a heavy home favorite vs Atlanta yesterday.

Jacksonville's ATS situation becomes more convoluted with this being a 'play on' spot for them, while the post-London situation would suggest a fade. Again another reason to just use trends and runs like this as a mere part of the entire handicapping process, because the Colts – Jacksonville's Week 11 opponent – are in a nice potential bounce back spot themselves after losing to Miami. But Indy's QB situation is still a concern, and it never hurts to pass on a game if there are too many conflicts in the information you find that you believe is important to future success.

Washington's been a regular in this scenario all year as they've scored 9 points or less four times now in 2019. The previous three times saw the Redskins go 1-2 ATS the next time out, so they've actually been a loser in a trend that's overall got a winning record this year. At home against the Jets, and off a bye week, the spots don't get much better then that for Washington.

And then you've got the Saints who go out to visit Tampa Bay next week in a game where the Saints offense should get “right” again against a Buccaneers defense that gives up points to everyone. That's another division game in this spot (Jax/Indy) being the other, and it's probably one that 'over' bettors should get on sooner rather then later.

I say that because, what's interesting about these teams coming off a lackluster offensive performance of 9 or fewer points, is that they have been bouncing back in big ways the following week; if they've got somewhat of a respectable offense.

During this 7-2 ATS run these teams are on, they've averaged putting up 23.22 points the following week. That number includes two Washington games of scoring 9 points on both occasions, and the Jets (15 points) and Broncos (13 points) not exactly pulling their weight either.

There aren't too many in the NFL market that would say those teams have 'respectable' offenses right now, but the Saints and arguably the Jaguars – now that QB Nick Foles is back – would be at worst in consideration for teams in that discussion. And it might be best to keep that Saints selection on your mind because...

Who's Not

Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, and the NY Jets are a perfect 0-6 ATS this year when coming off a SU win

By definition, bad teams become bad teams because they can't string together consecutive wins when you boil it right down. It doesn't matter if you lose every game by 30+ or by a game-winning FG missing/getting blocked every time, 10 weeks into the year, a team's win/loss record tends to tell most of the story. And those four teams listed in the title, are all what I would call “bad” teams this year, and wouldn't you know it, all four of them go into Week 11 off outright wins.

I'll start with Tampa Bay, as they are the ones hosting the aforementioned New Orleans Saints this week in a game that fits both of these scenarios. Tampa has been a money-burning team for over a month now, as a 0-5 ATS run the past five has been rough. The Bucs would take respected money for weeks only to come up short in one-possession games in a variety of ways. I got caught backing them this week in a game I expected them to win by more then they did vs Arizona, but it's going to be tough to get on board with them this week.

Not only are the Buccaneers 0-2 ATS off a SU win this year, they are already 0-1 ATS in that spot when it's the Saints sharing a field with them. New Orleans won the first meeting 31-24 after the Bucs upset the Rams out in LA a week earlier, and with the Saints looking for redemption after laying an egg vs Atlanta, it looks like this is a Saints ATS spot or nothing.

Fading the New York Jets this week would follow a similar thought process in that their opponent – Washington – found there way into the “Hot” part of this piece as well. That's two bad teams going up against one another though, and those games can bring a lot of extra headaches in general. But like the game above, it would be Washington or nothing for me there.

Cleveland is at home on TNF to face a suddenly surging Steelers team that believes they are still able to catch Baltimore in the AFC North, and I'm just not so sure it happens. The fact that Cleveland still shot themselves in the foot far too often in scratching out a win against the Bills – the Browns went into “force feed Odell Beckham mode” and it ruined the entire flow of the offense – is still highly concerning. If the Browns are going to try and continue to build towards living up to all the preseason hype that they themselves created, winning this game on TNF is a must, and it's a cause for pause on fading the Browns this week. They still are Cleveland though, and are still just 3-6 SU, and like I said, 10 weeks in, a team's record tells most of the story.

Finally we get a fade of the Atlanta Falcons in this spot, and this is one where it makes a lot of sense. Atlanta is coming off a convincing win as double digit underdogs, and back on the road for their second straight road division game. They are catching less than a TD against a Panthers team that struggled in the cold yesterday, but probably won't get caught overlooking the Falcons in a similar manner to what we saw from New Orleans on Sunday.

Atlanta's win over the Saints is likely going to push some towards taking the points there as a reactionary measure to last week's results. But the Panthers have won their last two games by at least 10 points when they are coming off a SU loss themselves this season, and after this Atlanta defense played well over their heads in holding the Saints down on Sunday, chances are that Falcons unit regresses hard to the defense that allows 28.8 points per game on the year still (28th in NFL).

I doubt these 'bad' teams stay winless ATS off a win the rest of the year, but fading all four of them this week should at worst prove to be a break-even proposition. Obviously some appear to be better fades then others (Tampa Bay, Atlanta), but too much information and reasoning behind a specific play isn't always the worst thing in the world.

by: Josh Inglis

BAND-AID ON THE RAMS O-LINE

Sometimes trying to find a play is like reverse engineering. Case in point: the Los Angeles Rams’ offensive line is in shambles. They lost their starting right tackle and center last week and have had to rearrange the entire unit. Both of those linemen were PFF’s fourth-worst players at their position which may indicate how bad the reserves will be. The line had been brutal before the injuries as well, allowing the league’s fifth-fewest yards per rush (3.2) over the last three weeks but still managing nearly 300 yards through the air.

So, we have determined that the Ram’s rushing game has been bad over the last month and will most likely get worse in Week 11 against the Chicago Bears (No.5 defense in total DVOA) due to the addition of two replacement players. The Rams have had more success passing the ball which hopefully leads to a pass-heavy game plan from Sean McVay, especially if rushing yardage is hard to come by early on. Now we have to figure out which Rams running back will be affected the most.

Todd Gurley received 74 percent of the offensive snaps last week but saw just 12 carries and none in the fourth quarter despite playing on 11 of the team’s 17 fourth-quarter snaps. He has also only topped 52 yards rushing once since Week 3 and faces a Bears’ defense that is allowing just 93 yards on 27 carries (3.44 yards per carry) over their last three games.

We are going to fade the Gurley-man and hope that McVay’s makeshift offensive line creates nothing for the running game. We are playing the Under 61.5 rushing yards and also the Under 15.5 carries on Gurley’s totals.

TWO TOP-5 DVOA DEFENSES

The variety of football prop bets makes wagering on games a unique experience. From quarterback rushing totals to longest field goals, bettors can tailor their interest level to which prop bets they prefer. One prop bet that is always plus money and can win on any single play throughout a game is the “special team or defensive touchdown scored” prop.

With this bet, we need bad quarterback play and athletic defenses. We are looking at you Jared Goff and Mitch Trubisky. Goff is tied for fourth with nine interceptions and fifth with nine fumbles as the QB has been anything but protective of the pigskin.

Trubisky is in a great spot to implode after playing his best game of the year last week. Although the Chicago QB doesn’t turn the ball over with the regularity that Goff does, Trubisky does take a lot of punishment as he has been sacked 12 times over the last three weeks. A Rams’ defense that has scored a defensive TD in two of their last three could certainly take advantage of Chicago’s sack problems.

Take the special team or defensive TD scored at +200 and cheer on the fourth- and fifth-ranked DVOA defenses.

TINKER BELL

Betting on the Jets is not recommended. Gang Green made backers sweat for their money but still pulled off the win as three-point dogs last week. One thing that stood out was how ineffective Le'Veon Bell was with his 18 touches. The RB’s longest run of the day was FOUR YARDS. That’s against a league-average run defense. Looking back over his last three games, Bell’s longest carry is 14 yards on a third and 22. Next to that, the longest is seven yards.

The Jets’ O-line will also be without their starting right guard and may be without center Ryan Kalil who is questionable versus Washington and their middle-of-the-pack rush defense. The Skins have allowed 140 yards rushing a game over their last three, but that may help us get a bigger number for Bell’s rushing total.

We are 0-2 on Bell prop bets this year so he owes us one. Take the Under 69.5 yards rushing which is a total that Bell is 1-8 O/U on the year.

BETTING ON BAKER BOMBING

Thursday’s matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Cleveland Browns gives us one of the lowest totals of the week at 40.5, after opening at 41. A quick look at the matchups shows us that these are two very poor offenses. Both teams are bottom-10 DVOA offenses, both are bottom-six in red zone offense, and both are bottom-ten at converting on third and short and third and medium.

Pittsburgh is a dominant top-3 total DVOA defense that has allowed the sixth-fewest yards over the last three weeks while the Browns’ offense has gone over 19 points just once in their last five games and that was against the Seahawks’ 27th-ranked defense.

Our Thursday night play is cheering against a losing franchise that hasn’t put two wins together all year. Take the Browns team total Under 21.5.

EARLY LINE FAVORITE

The Carolina Panthers played well in Lambeau last week. Yes, their defense can’t stop the run, but the offense moved the ball easily in cold and snowy conditions and their defensive front made timely stops but ultimately got hosed by the refs who bailed out Aaron Rodgers. This team can score as CMC could have a field day versus the Atlanta Falcons’ 30th-ranked DVOA defense.

We know the Dirty Birds pulled off a big win on the road last week versus their divisional rivals, but make no mistake, this is still a bad team that is without their No.1 running back and their tight end who is second in the league in receiving yards.

The Falcons’ defense is also in the bottom-five in points allowed per game, are allowing third downs to be converted at 50 percent, and have let opposing QBs put up 260 yards passing a game. Having five members of their secondary out or questionable will not their cause come Sunday.

We like Kyle Allen at home. Take the Panthers -5.5.

NFL's Top Over Teams:

1. Bucs 6-2 O/U
2. Chiefs 6-3 O/U
t3. Ravens 6-3 O/U
t3. Panthers 6-3 O/U
t3. Cowboys 6-3 O/U
t3. Lions 6-3 O/U
t3. Raiders 6-3 O/U
t8. Cards, Giants, Seahawks 6-4 O/U

NFL's Top Under Teams:

1. Bills 7-2 U/O
2. Chargers 7-3 U/O
t3. Falcons 6-3 U/O
t3. Bears100 6-3
t3. Bengals 6-3
t3. Broncos 6-3
t3. Rams 6-3
t3. Dolphins 6-3
t3. Patriots 6-3
t3. Steelers 6-3
t3. Redskins 6-3

by: Josh Inglis

JONESING FOR THE BALL

Tampa Bay Buccaneers RB Ronald Jones has been getting some praise from his head coach, Bruce Arians — especially about the back’s route running. Jones blew up for eight catches on eight targets last week for 77 yards. Arians’ support in the passing game will help Jones receive more snaps over third-down back Dare Ogunbowale as RJ2 saw nearly twice as many snaps as both Peyton Barber and Ogunbowale last week. Since Tampa Bay’s bye in Week 7, Jones is averaging 73 total yards, a trend he will look to continue against the New Orleans Saints.

The Saints are allowing the seventh-fewest passing yards to running backs at 35.2 yards per game but gave up 143 yards rushing last week and have given up 18 catches to RBs over the last three weeks.

We are taking the Over on Jones’ 63.5 total yards and looking to cash on back-to-back weeks with the Bucs’ lead back.

YES TO GOFF, NO TO TRUBISKY

Yesterday, we wrote about the possibility of a defensive TD when the Chicago Bears travel to the Los Angeles Rams for Sunday Night Football. Today, we are going to pick on both QBs again.

Last year, Mitch Trubisky and Jared Goff faced off in what was a Bears’ 15-6 win. In that snooze fest, Trubisky went 16 of 30 for 110 yards, one score and three interceptions while Goff didn't fare any better, completing 20 of 44 passes for 180 yards and four interceptions. Their combined QB rating was just 52.4.

Goff’s completion total sits at 23.5 his total yards at 269.5 this week. The Rams QB has not completed more than 22 passes since Week 5 and has eclipsed 269 yards passing just once over the last month. Goff will also be without WR Brandin Cooks, possibly both his TEs and two-fifths of his starting offensive line. We endorse the Under on both 23.5 completions and 269.5 yards.

Trubisky’s completion total sits at 21.5 and his total yards at 230.5 for Sunday's match. Three of the last four quarterbacks to face the Rams have hit the Over on both these totals: Andy Dalton, Jimmy Garropolo and Mason Rudolph. Trubisky is a terrible QB, but the fact that Rudolph completed 22 passes for 242 yards makes us feel like the Bears QB could push these numbers. We are going to pass on Trusbisky’s totals.

CALLAHAN’S SIDESHOW

With running back Derrius Guice expected to carve out a role in the league’s worst-scoring offense this week againstt the New York Jets, it could really cut into Adrian Peterson’s touches. The ageless RB had been running great before the team’s bye last week, rushing for 118, 81, 76 and 108 yards since Week 6 and averaging nearly 18 touches.

With the Washington offense running just 43.7 plays a game over their last three games, there are only so many touches to go around. Bill Callahan is running a sideshow of an offense as the team has scored 17, 0, 9 and 9 points since he has taken over and now the coach is going to take touches away from his RB who is top-10 in rushing yards over the last four weeks. Hit Washington's team total Under 19.5 points.

VIKINGS’ PASS RUSH TO PUT DOWN BRONCOS

No team in the league is surrendering more sacks of late than the Denver Broncos. Over their past three games, the Ponies have given up 15 sacks. New quarterback Brandon Allen got taken down three times in just 20 drop backs in Week 9.

Their defense has returned the favor though, sacking Baker Mayfield twice and Jacoby Brissett four times in their last two games. They will take on a Minnesota Vikings offensive line that has kept Kirk Cousins relatively clean at 1.7 sacks per game.

If the Broncos can get to Cousins once or twice it will help our cause as we think that the Vikings pass rush will have no problem getting to Allen. The Vikes are averaging four sacks a game when facing sub-500 teams and have sacked rookies this year at a rate of once per seven drop backs. Take the Over 5.5 sacks.

By: Josh Inglis

GOING DEEP

The Oakland Raiders lost free safety Karl Joseph last week and are now without both their starting safeties for Sunday’s game against the Cincinnati Bengals. Replacing Joseph will be D.J. Swearinger who was released by the Cardinals earlier this year and has a pathetic PFF rating of 45. Swearinger’s addition won't help a Raiders’ secondary that is allowing the second-most yards per completion at 12.3.

The only team allowing more yards per completion is the Bengals. For the year, Cincy is getting torched for 13.3 yards per completion, but things have been even worse of late as they are giving up 17.2 yards per completion over their last three games.

All of this adds up to long touchdowns, something both teams are familiar with in their last four games. The Raiders have scored three TDs of 42 yards or longer and have given up two since Week 7. The Bengals have found many ways to have long touchdowns in their recent matches, including a 56-yard pick-six, a 65-yard passing TD against, a 47-yard TD run against and a 92-yard kickoff return.

We are banging the Over on the longest touchdown scored at 41.5 yards.

HAPPY FEET

Matthew Stafford will miss another game while backup Jeff Driskel takes over for a second week as the Lions host the Cowboys. Driskel threw 46 passes for 269 yards against the Chicago Bears' defense last week in a 20-13 loss. One thing that stood out was Driskel’s athleticism as he also rushed for 37 yards on six carries with a long of 11.

Last year in five starts with the Bengals, the former 2016 sixth-round pick averaged nearly four rushes a game at over four yards per attempt. The Lions QB will take on a Dallas defense that has allowed 71 rushing yards on 11 attempts to opposing QBs over the last three weeks.

This may be a hard prop bet to find but could be more available closer to kick off. Take Driskel’s Over rushing total on any number less than 20 yards.

SWEET SPOT FOR SANDERS

The Philadelphia Eagles just signed Jay Ajayi off the street which shows how depleted their running back depth is of late. Jordan Howard has not been cleared for contact with a stinger and Darren Sproles is done for the season with a hip injury. This leaves Miles Sanders as the top back in an offense that is leading the league in rushing attempts over the last three weeks.

Ove the last two weeks, Howard had out-snapped Sanders 96 to 49 and outgained the rookie 178 on 4.2 ypc to 116 on 8.92 ypc. Likely with the keys to the offense in week 11 and with the Eagles facing the Patriots’ 12th-ranked DVOA rush defense, Sanders could be the focal point of an offense who will also be without receiver Alshon Jeffery.

Considering Sanders has also averaged three catches for 43 yards since Week 7, we're going to look at Sanders’ total yards and hit the Over on any total below 98 yards. This is another prop that will be more available closer to kick off once Howard's availibility is known.

SHOOTOUT DOWN SOUTH

News that Panthers cornerback Ross Cockrell is out for Week 11 while CBs James Bradberry and Donte Jackson are nicked up as well, has us thinking that Sunday's game between Carolina and Atlanta has shootout potential. The Panthers’ pass defense (3rd DVOA) has been rock solid but they have been getting mugged by the run (32nd DVOA). These injuries in the secondary do not come at an ideal time as they will face a heavy dose of Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley with RB Devonte Freeman missing the tilt.

Kyle Allen and the offense have had to push the ball in their possessions lately as their defense has been getting beat up, allowing over 400 yards since Week 8. They put up over 400 yards of offense themselves last week versus Green Bay's 19th ranked DVOA defense. This week they get to light up Atlanta’s 30th-ranked DVOA defense at home where Carolina is averaging 26.2 ppg.

With the Falcons forced to pass against a great passing defense that will be missing some key pieces, we love the Over 49.

BEST VS. THE WORST

These are the No.1 matchups for receivers versus defenses per Football Outsiders.

WR Terry McLaurin vs New York Jets: The Jets secondary is giving up the most yards to opposing WR1s at 91.5 yards per game. They have also allowed five TDs over the last three games to team's top receivers.

Week 11 will really put fading the worst to the test as Redskins QB Dwayne Haskins is averaging 6.5 yards per pass attempt which would put him in 31st amongst quarterbacks. Tread carefully with McLaurin’s 59.5 receiving yard total, a number he hasn’t topped in three weeks

TE Jared Cook vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Fresh off a 10-target, six-catch 74-yard performance last week, Jared Cook faces the Bucs who are allowing 84 yards to opposing tight ends this year. Cook went 4-41-1 versus the Bucs in Week 5, playing in 60 percent of the snaps but saw his snap count increase to 71 percent last week. Look for the Saints TE to surpass his total of 40.5 receiving yards in a game that has the third-highest total of the week.

RB Ezekiel Elliott vs Detroit Lions: Zeke could have a big day through the air versus a Detroit Lions defense that is giving up 55.3 yards receiving to opposing RBs. The Dallas running back has only been targeted three times in the last two weeks but averaged nearly six targets a game from Week 4 through 7. Take the Over on any total below 20 yards.

FEAST AWAITS EVANS

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will face a very motivated New Orleans Saints team Sunday, but NOLA will be without their top cornerback in Marcus Lattimore. The third-year CB is week-to-week with a hamstring injury meaning Bucs WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin will face sub-par corners in P.J. Williams and Eli Apple.

As Brad Evans pointed out on twitter, this is especially great news for Mike Evans who has struggled over his career versus Lattimore. Evans put up a donut early this year in Week 5 at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome and averaged 9.5 targets for three catches and 34 yards in two games in 2017 (last year Lattimore struggled following up his 2017 DROY but has been much better this year).

Even with Jameis Winston getting sacked nearly four times a game, Evans is averaging 139 yards a game over his last four contests. Jump on Evans’ receiving yard total on any number below 85 and check in on his reception total, hitting the Over on any number below 7.

HEATING UP EARLY

The hottest team in the league right now is Lamar Jackson’s Baltimore Ravens. After knocking off the Patriots in Week 9, they turned their crosshairs on the winless Cincinnati Bengals in Week 10. The Ravens ran just 48 offensive plays but managed to put up 49 points. Lost in the 49-13 win was the fact that Baltimore moved to 8-1 against the first-quarter spread after winning the first 15 minutes 14-0.

This week, Baltimore is a 4-point home favorite versus a Houston team that is coming off their bye. If you don’t trust a team coming off a blowout win versus the worst team in the league and/or covering their last three games, take a look at the 1Q Ravens -0.5 (-105) as an alternative.

Baltimore is second in the league in first quarter points per game at 9.5 and third in the league in points against in the first quarter at 3.67 while the Texans are 0-3-1 on the road this year in the first quarter. Take the Ravens 1Q -0.5.

LOADING SCREEN

No team in the league relies on the screen game more than the Minnesota Vikings. Per ESPN, Minnesota is averaging 9.8 yards per screen attempt which is 3.5 yards more per attempt than the No.10 team.

The beneficiary of this is running back Dalvin Cook who gashed the Cowboys in primetime every time he got the ball with blockers ahead of him. Over the last three games, Cook has amassed 193 yards receiving and will face a Denver Broncos’ defense that is giving up 8.6 yards per pass to RBs since Week 8.

Grab the Over on Cook’s receiving yards on any total less than 40 yards.

LOADING SCREEN PT. 2

If you’re tailing the Cook receiving yards play and want some action on the other side of the ball, maybe look to fade the Broncos’ backfield in receiving yards. Denver is the worst team at generating yards on the screen game (3.7 yards per attempt) and neither Phillip Lindsay nor Royce Freeman has topped 17 yards receiving in the last two weeks. In the only game Brandon Allen has started at quarterback, Lindsay wasn’t targeted at all and Freeman saw one target which he lost a yard on.

Feel confident in taking Lindsay’s Under receiving yards on anything greater than 19 and Freeman’s Under on any number greater than 25.

AIN'T FADING THE FINS NOW

The best team ATS over the last five weeks has been the Miami Dolphins. The former 0-7 team has rattled off five-straight wins ATS and face a Buffalo Bills team that has zero offensive identity of late and trailed the Dolphins by five points heading into the fourth quarter just four weeks ago.

We are a little bearish on Miami hitting a sixth-straight win ATS but have no problem fading Josh Allen’s Bills who are putting up just 288 yards of total offense over the last three weeks, good for sixth-worst. Their once stellar defense now sits 12th in Wtd DVOA — 9th against the pass and 27th against the run.

The Bills needed 22 4th-quarter points in their last meeting to cover their team total and we don’t see Brian Daboll’s offense clearing 23.5 points since they are 2-5 O/U that total in their last seven.

Get on the Bills’ team total Under 23.5.

NFL Week 11 betting cheat sheet: Impact injuries, weather, Pros vs Joes and more
Patrick Everson

Matthew Stafford (hip/back) will miss his second straight game when Detroit hosts Dallas on Sunday. The Lions would've been 3-point underdogs with Stafford, but are 7-point pups without him.

NFL Week 11 won’t include the top quarterback for the Motor City franchise, though at least this week, sportsbooks and bettors aren’t in the dark about that fact. Covers checks in on everything from injury updates to weather to Pros vs. Joes clashes and more, with insights from Eric Osterman, manager at The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.
Injury Impact

DETROIT LIONS: Matthew Stafford (hip/back) will miss his second straight game, meaning Jeff Driskel gets the nod at quarterback when the Lions host the Cowboys. “We put up Cowboys -6.5. If Stafford was playing, it would be Cowboys -3.” Detroit stretched to a 7-point underdog Friday afternoon, with a total of 47.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: Nick Foles will return at Indianapolis, after missing eight games with a broken collarbone suffered in Week 1. “Foles moves the line a little bit,” Osterman said of a number at Jags +2.5 (even) on Friday afternoon. “That game would be Jaguars +3 or +3 (even) with Gardner Minshew.”

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: Likewise, No. 1 QB Jacoby Brissett (knee) returns after missing last week’s 16-12 loss to Miami, in which Brian Hoyer threw three interceptions. “Oh yeah, Brissett is worth a couple of points over Hoyer. If Foles was playing against Hoyer, this game would be Colts -1 or -1.5.” Instead, with Foles facing Brissett, it’s Colts -2.5 (-120), with a total of 43.5.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS: Wideout Adam Thielen (hamstring) will miss his second straight game and third in four weeks when the Vikes play host to Denver. “That was expected. He’s worth about a half-point.” Minnesota is a 10-point favorite, with a total of 40.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: Running back Jordan Howard (shoulder) is questionable for a big game against New England, with Philly a 3.5-point home pup. “If he’s ruled out, I wouldn’t expect the line to go to 4 just from that. The Eagles have plenty of backs.” That said, The SuperBook moved to Eagles +4 Friday afternoon, with a total of 45.

CHICAGO BEARS: Running back David Montgomery (ankle) is a game-time decision at the Los Angeles Rams. “Montgomery is worth a half-point, but I wouldn’t expect it to move from +6.5 to +7. Probably +6.5 (even).”

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS: Wideouts Emanuel Sanders (ribs) and Dante Pettis (back) are questionable for a home tilt against Arizona. “That’s part of the reason that line has come down so much. Both of them out and Greg Kittle out accounts for 1.5 to 2 points,” Osterman said, alluding to the tight end likely out a second straight game with knee/ankle issues.
Weather Watch

KANSAS CITY VS. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS: There’s more to this than just weather, as altitude could be an issue in a game set for Monday night at Azteca Stadium in Mexico City, at an elevation of 7,300 feet – 2,000 feet higher than AFC West outpost Denver. Rain this weekend might hamper a field that last year was in such poor condition that the Chiefs-Rams game was moved from there to Los Angeles.

“The altitude doesn’t really affect the line, because it affects both teams equally,” Osterman said. “But if there is rain, there would be concern about the field, given the past history. So I would expect the total to come down if there’s rain.” That said, the best chance for rain was Friday night. The total opened at 49.5 and reached 52 Thursday.

HOUSTON AT BALTIMORE: It could be a little chilly for the Texans’ taste, in the mid-40s, but the line and the total – currently Ravens -4 and 51.5 – won’t change on that information. “No effect on the Ravens game.”

NEW ENGLAND AT PHILADELPHIA: This is a 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff, and rain is expected Sunday night in Philly. “The total has come down 1 point on that game. The rain definitely has something to do with that.” The total was at 45 Friday afternoon.
Pros vs. Joes

DENVER AT MINNESOTA: “The line has gone from Vikings -10.5 to -10, but most public money is on the Vikings.”

ARIZONA AT SAN FRANCISCO: “We’re seeing some public money on the Niners, but most of the money has been sharp play on the Cardinals.” The 49ers opened -13.5 and dropped to -10 by Thursday.

NEW YORK JETS AT WASHINGTON: This is actually Pros joining Joes, but I’m dropping it in here because it’s an interesting note for an otherwise dull matchup. “A lot of Redskins money from sharps, and some public money. We’re going to need the Jets the most among the early games.” The game opened pick and moved to Redskins -2.5.

Sunday Blitz - Week 11
Kevin Rogers

GAMES TO WATCH

Texans at Ravens (-4 ½, 51 ½) – 1:00 PM EST
A pair of first place AFC squads hook up in Baltimore as the Texans (6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS) return from their bye week. Prior to its bye, Houston crushed Jacksonville in London, 26-3 to pull off the season sweep of the Jaguars, while holding its first opponent to single-digits in points this season. The Texans are seeking their first three-game winning streak of the season, while already knocking off the Chiefs and Chargers as a road underdog.

The Ravens (7-2 SU, 4-5 ATS) are fresh off their fifth consecutive victory after routing the winless Bengals, 49-13 as 10 ½-point road favorites. Quarterback Lamar Jackson threw for three touchdowns and ran for another one on an electrifying 47-yard scamper to give Baltimore its third straight cover following a 1-5 ATS start. The Ravens have failed to cover in three opportunities as a home favorite this season, while last cashing in this role in Week 12 last season against the Raiders.

These teams hooked up in Baltimore two seasons ago as the Ravens held off the Texans, 23-16 as 7 ½-point favorites. Obviously Jackson wasn’t on the roster, as Joe Flacco started for Baltimore opposite not Deshaun Watson, but Tom Savage got the start for the Texans. Houston has played five games at M&T Bank Stadium since its expansion year in 2002 and have never beaten Baltimore once on the road.

Best Bet: Ravens 27, Texans 24

Jaguars at Colts (-2 ½, 43) – 1:00 PM EST
Nick Foles inked a four-year, $88 million deal with Jacksonville in the offseason, but the former Super Bowl MVP hasn’t played a full game yet for the Jaguars (4-5 SU, 5-4 ATS). Foles sustained a broken collarbone in the first half of the season opening loss at Kansas City as rookie Gardner Minshew took over at quarterback. Minshew had some highlights as Jacksonville went 4-4 in games started by the former Washington State standout, but Foles is back in the lineup for Sunday. The Jags have not defeated a team with a winning record, but Jacksonville has cashed in three of four road games this season.

The Colts (5-4 SU, 4-4-1 ATS) welcome back their starting quarterback after Brian Hoyer was in for the injured Jacoby Brissett in last Sunday’s shocking 16-12 defeat to the Dolphins as 11-point home favorites. Brissett was dealing with a sprained knee suffered in the loss at Pittsburgh two weeks ago, but he is ready to return for a Colts’ team who are 0-3 ATS the last three games. The Colts are coming off an ‘under’ against Miami, as Indianapolis has not hit two consecutive ‘unders’ this season.

Jacksonville has covered seven of the past eight meetings with Indianapolis, as the two matchups in 2018 were decided by a total of nine points. The Colts are 4-1 in the previous five affairs with the Jaguars at Lucas Oil Stadium, including picking up a 29-26 triumph last season.

Best Bet: Jaguars 20, Colts 17

Patriots (-4 ½, 44 ½) at Eagles – 4:25 PM EST
These teams hook up for the first time since the epic Super Bowl LII two seasons ago won by the Eagles, 41-33 as 4 ½-point underdogs. Philadelphia (5-4 SU, 4-5 ATS) enters this rematch on a two-game winning streak after defeating Buffalo and Chicago in the past two contests, while fresh off the bye week. The Eagles have yet to win three consecutive games this season, as they enter Sunday’s action tied for the top spot in the NFC East with the Cowboys. Philadelphia allowed 37 points in a blowout loss at Dallas in Week 7, but the Eagles have yielded a combined 37 points in the past two games.

The Patriots (8-1 SU, 6-3 ATS) are also off the bye week, but New England dropped its first game of the season two weeks ago in a 37-20 blowout loss at Baltimore as three-point favorites. It seems easy to blindly back the Patriots off a defeat, but New England lost back-to-back games twice last season, and in both situations, they fell on the road each time. Tom Brady lit up the Eagles in that Super Bowl setback for 505 yards and three touchdown passes, as the Patriots have won 10 of the past 12 regular season affairs with NFC foes.

New England owns a perfect 2-0 record at Lincoln Financial Field since the stadium opened in 2003, but the Patriots have lost the two meetings with the Eagles. In the most recent regular season matchup in Foxboro in 2015, Philadelphia surprised New England as nine-point underdogs, 35-28.

Best Bet: Patriots 27, Eagles 20

BEST TOTAL PLAY

UNDER 44 – Cardinals at 49ers

San Francisco’s defense allowed 77 points in its first seven games, but the 49ers have given up 52 points in the past two weeks. The Niners yielded 25 points against the Cardinals two weeks ago in a 28-25 victory in Arizona, but the final touchdown occurred on an 88-yard strike by Kyler Murray with five minutes remaining. Arizona’s offense hasn’t fared well on the road against teams with winning records by scoring 17 at Baltimore and 9 at New Orleans, while San Francisco.

BIGGEST LINE MOVE

We’ll stick with that San Francisco/Arizona matchup as the 49ers opened as 13 ½-point favorites at the Westgate Superbook last Monday. The Niners have slipped to a 10-point favorite, which also coincides coming off their first loss of the season to Seattle in overtime. The Cardinals have been a solid team to back recently by covering in five of the last six games, while posting a 4-1 ATS mark away from Glendale this season. San Francisco has not covered in two opportunities as a double-digit favorite this season, which includes that three-point win at Arizona as 10 ½-point chalk in Week 9.

TRAP OF THE WEEK

The Bengals are the only team in the NFL not to win a game this season as they take their 0-9 record to the Black Hole in Oakland. Cincinnati is off a 49-13 home blowout loss to Baltimore last week, while Oakland is fresh off a pair of close home wins over Detroit and Los Angeles. Now, the Raiders are laying points for only the second time this season, as four of their past five covers have come in the underdog role. The Bengals’ offense has struggled in 2019, but Cincinnati has cashed in road games as ‘dogs of nine points or more at Seattle and Baltimore.

BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW

Teams returning from the bye after a London game own an 0-6 SU/ATS record this season. The two teams that are in this situation in Week 11 are the Texans and Jaguars. Both are road underdogs as Houston heads to Baltimore, while Jacksonville travels to Indianapolis. Four of the six losing teams fell by double-digits, but Houston has not lost a game by more than a touchdown in 2019.

Total Talk - Week 11
Joe Williams

It's Week 11 of the National Football League regular season, and it's hard to believe we have less than two months until the postseason begins. We're also hurtling toward Thanksgiving, too, when we'lll have the three Thursday games. But first things first, Week 11 features some very important battles. After Thursday's explosive matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers-Cleveland Browns, the intensity appears to be ratcheting up with the pressure. The TNF game ended up going 'under', snapping a six-game 'over' streak in primetime games, the longest such run of the season.

2019 Total Results - Game & Halves

Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Week 10 7-6 6-7 6-7

Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Year-to-Date 72-75-1 71-76-1 66-78-4

The books crushed it again in Week 10, but again that was mostly due to sides. The totals were just 7-6 in favor of the 'over', which generally is a friend to the public bettor.

The half totals were very consistent, going 7-6 in favor of the 'under' last week. Here are the overall numbers this season for both the first-half (76-71-1) and second-half (78-66-4).

Division Bell

In the five divisional battles in Week 10, three went over - including the Monday nighter between the Seattle Seahawks-San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium. The under is now 25-20 (55.6%) in divisional games this season, which includes Thursday's Steelers-Browns result.

Divisional Game Results Week 10
L.A. Chargers at Oakland Over (49) Oakland 26, L.A. Chargers 24
Atlanta at New Orleans Under (51.5) Atlanta 26, New Orleans 9
Baltimore at Cincinnati Over (44.5) Baltimore 49, Cincinnati 13
Detroit at Chicago Under (38) Chicago 20, Detroit 13
Seattle at San Francisco Over (47) Seattle 27, San Francisco 24

Line Moves and Public Leans

Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 11 based off our VI Odds as of Saturday morning.

Atlanta at Carolina: 54 to 49 ½
Dallas at Detroit: 51 to 47 ½
Kansas City vs. L.A. Chargers (MNF): 49 to 52
Houston at Baltimore: 49 to 51 ½
Chicago at L.A. Rams (SNF): 42 to 40
Denver at Minnnesota: 38 ½ to 40 ½

Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 11 per the betting trend percentages on the VI Matchup index as of Saturday morning.

Chicago at L.A. Rams: Under 94%
Houston at Baltimore: Over 91%
Atlanta at Carolina: Under 83%
Jacksonville at Indianapolis: Under 81%
Denver at Minnesota: Over 79%
Arizona at San Francisco: Under 76%
Cincinnati at Oakland: Under 75%

There is also a heavy lean on for the 'over' (73 percent) in the New England at Philadelphia matchup, and heavy lean on the 'over' in N.Y. Jets at Washington (72 percent) contest.

Handicapping Week 11

Week 10 Total Results
Matchups Over/Under Year to Date
Divisional 3-2 19-25
NFC vs. NFC 2-1 17-16
AFC vs. AFC 1-2 15-12-1
AFC vs. NFC 1-1 22-21

Other Week 11 Action

Dallas at Detroit: The Lions turn to QB Jeff Driskel again with QB Matthew Stafford (back) still on the shelf. The Lions have been experiencing plenty of injuries on offense, although they still should be able to do enough to go 'over' in this one. The defense has been atrocious, actually making Chicago's Mitch Trubisky look like an NFL-caliber signal caller. The over has hit in three of four games at Ford Field this season, and the defense has allowed 34, 42 and 26 points in those three over results. As road favorites, the Cowboys have posted 37 and 31 in their wins and 22 and 10 in two losses.

New Orleans at Tampa Bay: The Saints and Bucs square off at Raymond James Stadium. The first meeting in New Orleans back on Oct. 6 cashed the over, with the Saints winning 31-24. The over has hit in three of the past four in this series. Tampa Bay ranks dead-last against the pass, allowing 298.9 yards per game. New Orleans should enter this game angry after being held to just nine points in their stunning loss at home against the Falcons last week. The over is 9-3 in the past 12 for New Orleans after a straight-up loss, while the over is 7-3 in Tampa's past 10 after a straight-up win. The over is also 7-3 in the past 10 for the Bucs inside the division.

Atlanta at Carolina: The Panthers host the Falcons, who stunned the Saints in NOLA last week in an 'under' result. The under also hit in the Panthers game in the snow on the road against the Packers. In this NFC South battle, the under has ruled over the past 12 outings, going 9-3. That includes a 5-1 under mark in the past six battles at Bank of America Stadium, with the outlier Dec. 24, 2016 when the Falcons won 33-16 to cash over tickets by a half-point. The Falcons have actually hit the under in five straight against winning teams, while the under is 5-2 for the Panthers in the past seven against losing sides.

N.Y. Jets at Washington: There are just three wins in between the Jets and Redskins in the most unattractive game of the weekend. However, the winning tickets cash just the same. The over has connected in each of the past three for Gang Green, as they have averaging 22.3 PPG during the span while allowing 27.3 PPG. In fact, the Jets have allowed 22 or more points each of their past eight outings. Overall the Jets rank 25th in the NFL with 26.4 PPG allowed. However, their offense hasn't exactly been on point, ranking 32nd in total yards and passing yards, 31st in rushing yards and 30th in points scored at 14.4 PPG. The Redskins are also 30th in total yards and 31st in passing yards per game, while ranking dead-last in points scored (12.0 PPG). The lack of offense is why this game is the lowest total on the board, and only game under 40.

Buffalo at Miami: The Bills and Dolphins met on Oct. 20, with the Bills winning a 31-21 decision in a game which cashed well over. The previous two meetings at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami have produced a pair of under results, with the Bills averaging 19.5 PPG and the Dolphins averaging 18.5 PPG in those two battles. However, the over is 7-2 in the past nine in this series. Miami's defense has gotten better, allowing just 15 PPG in their past two games, and after posting 10, 0, 6, 10 in their first four outings, they're averaging 18.6 PPG across the past five games. The Dolphins still have a ways to go before they are considered a juggernaut, but they have been improving. Their 21 points in the loss in Buffalo was their second-highest production of the season.

Houston at Baltimore: The highest total on the board for Sunday's slate will be a rematch of QBs DeShaun Watson and Lamar Jackson, as these guys met in a memorable Louisville-Clemson battle in college. The Texans are coming off a bye after playing their last game in London, a 26-3 win over the Jags. If you're playing the 'London system', you'll want to play the over in this one. In the past two seasons the over is 9-3 for NFL teams playing in their first game back after a London game. As an added bonus, teams are 3-8-1 ATS in the past 12 after playing in the UK, which includes losses by both the Bengals and Rams last week.

Jacksonville at Indianapolis: The London system also applies in this one, as the Jags are back after a bye following their London game. The over/under split last season between these two divisional rivals, with the lowest scoring in the NFL last season, a 6-0 decision in favor of the Jags. The over hit in the meeting at Lucas Oil Stadium on Nov. 11, a 29-26 victory going to the Colts. That was a rarity, however, as the under has hit in seven of the past eight battles in Indianapolis, and four of the past five meetings overall. If you're an under bettor, you'll like the fact the under is a perfect 6-0 in Jacksonville's past six against winning sides and 13-5 in Indy's past 18 games inside the division. The under is also 13-3 in the past 16 when the Colts are rebounding from a straight-up loss. The good news for the Colts is that QB Jacoby Brissett (knee) is back under center. The over is actually 5-3 in Brissett's eight starts this season, with the under 1-0 in the game he missed last Sunday. And remember, London!

New England at Philadelphia: The Patriots and Eagles are each well rested after byes last week. New England's offense is usually well prepared after a bye, hitting the 'over' in six of the past seven following a week of rest. The under has been the dominant trend for the Pats this season, and really over the past two, cashing in 15 of the past 21 overall and five of the past six road games. The under is 12-5 in the past 17 for the Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field, while going 9-2 in the past 11 at home against teams with a winning road record. Philly's defense was very impressive in two games before the break, allowing just 13 and 14, and they have yielded just 20 total points in the past two home outings.

Heavy Expectations

There are three games listed with a spread of double-digit points for Week 11, with the home team listed as favorites in each of them. The totals range from 40 ½ to 48 ½ and cashing a total could come down to whether or not the favorite lays off the gas in the second-half.

Denver at Minnesota (1:00 p.m. ET): The Vikings have cashed the over in four of the past five outings, although the under cashed in their only game as a double-digit favorite back on Oct. 24 in a 19-9 win over the Redskins. The Vikings have faced two AFC West foes to date, scoring 34 and 23, hitting the 'over' in each contest. The under is 3-1 in Denver's four games on the road this season, splitting 1-1 in the first two against NFC North foes. As far as being a double-digit underdog, there isn't much to glean from this. Denver hasn't been a 'dog by more than 10 points in over a decade.

Arizona at San Francisco (4:05 p.m. ET): The Cards and 49ers just met on Halloween, and it was a treat for over bettors. Arizona gave San Francisco a hard time, just coming up short 28-25 in an 'over' result. The over has hit in three in a row for San Francisco, scoring 51, 28 and 24 while allowing 13, 25 and 27. It's quite the turnaround after a 5-1 'under' starts for Frisco. The over in 6-1 in the past seven for Arizona when coming off a straight-up loss, and 5-1 in San Francisco's past six inside the division. The Niners are coming off their first loss of the season, and the 'under' is 6-2 in the past eight following a straight-up loss, although we haven't see that happen this season.

Cincinnati at Oakland (4:25 p.m. ET): The Bengals and Raiders lock horns in the Black Hole, and this line ballooned to double digits in rather quick fashion. If you remember the "Thursday Night Football" system, the system tells you to play the over. The system is 6-3 in nine games, and was a winner last week with an over in the Cards-Bucs battle. While the over is the play if you follow the system, be careful. Cincinnati's offense is in flux, and following a move to QB Ryan Finley they look like they wanted to go with a more ground-based attack. RB Joe Mixon saw 30 carries to buoy the offense, and Finley just didn't look terribly sharp. The Raiders rank 10th against the run, so the Bengals might want to consider airing it out more. Oakland ranks 30th against the pass, allowing 285.3 yards per game.

Under the Lights

Chicago at L.A. Rams (8:20 p.m. ET - Sun.): The Sunday Night Football battle between the Bears and Rams is expected to be a low-scoring affair. The Los Angeles defense hasn't been hitting on all cylinders lately. They're averaging just 20 PPG across the past four outings, and the defense is yielding just 14.3 PPG during the span. It's no surprise that the under is a perfect 4-0 during the span. In four games at the L.A. Coliseum this season, the under is 3-1, with the outlier that insane 55-40 loss against the Bucs back on Sept. 29. The Bears enter on a 3-0 under run, and they have scored 21 or fewer points in seven of their nine outings. Two of Chicago's three over results have come on the road this season, however, including a primetime game Sept. 23 in Washington.

Kansas City vs. L.A. Chargers (8:15 p.m. ET - Mon.): The Chiefs and Chargers hook up at Estadio Azteca in Ciudad de Mexico. We've seen two Mexico games in the past, with the over/under splittng 1-1. We were supposed to have the Chiefs and Rams hook up last Nov. 19, but that game was moved to L.A. due to unsafe field conditions in Mexico City. Since QB Pat Mahomes took the reins of the offense, the over is 10-3 with the Chiefs in away games, averaging a robust 36.3 PPG. He scorched the Bolts for six touchdown passes last season, and over the past three years Kansas City is averaging 31.6 PPG against the AFC West divisional rivals. The over has inched up from 49.5 to 52, and is now the highest on the board. This game will be played at an elevation of 7,200 feet, well above the Mile High elevation these teams are used to in trips to Denver each season.

SNF - Bears at Rams
Matt Blunt

Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Rams (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)

Last week's rant against the Marvin Lewis coaching tree didn't work out, as Minnesota did go into Dallas and came out as the victors. The Vikings still got ultra-conservative in that 4th quarter as they did have a sense of playing not to lose rather then to win, and even with the unit lost, my opinion hasn't really changed on Minnesota. They are still a team that will tense up in tight spots and not likely get through. It's on to this week's game though, and another team I was wrong about this year on the whole, as Chicago heads west to play the LA Rams.

I had Chicago coming out of the NFC to be Super Bowl bound this year, and that couldn't have been more wrong just 10 weeks later. I knew the turnover margin they Bears got last year wasn't sustainable, but I expected the Bears offense to take multiple steps forward, not multiple steps backwards. Chicago's 2019 season is now on the brink of collapse now, as these guys know they are a much better team then what their record shows, but one more loss soon and it's probably time to pack up shop and get ready for offseason vacation plans. Chicago isn't likely going to catch Green Bay or Minnesota within the division, and then that leaves only one Wildcard spot as an option, and that's likely going to the NFC West runner up.

It's now or never for the Bears, and depending on how you figure Chicago's going to come out of that proposition is where you'll end up in terms of playing this game.

Total Talk

This number opened at 42 and has since taken 'under' action for the majority of the week. Given how bad the Bears offense has been this entire year, 'under' money in Chicago games is no surprise. It's not like the Rams offense did themselves any favors in terms of those potentially looking at an 'over' here, as LA's offense wasn't responsible for 9 of the 12 points the team scored last week. That's not a one-off of a bad game for Goff and that Rams attack either, as there are starting to be some louder concerns about that unit then anyone expected coming into the year.

On top of all that, it's easy to remember the game in late-December these two played last season in Chicago, where it was the Bears defense who choked the life out of a then-dynamic Rams attack. Chicago's basically got that same defense out there on the field this year, so there is that as well. 'Under' money was always going to come in here, and at 42 it's probably the right course of action. At the current number of 40.5, it's probably best to pass.

I say that because, the Rams “one-offs” of bad offensive performances rarely, if ever, turn into consecutive games like that. LA has scored 20 or fewer points three times this year, and after the previous two, they responded with 40 and 37 points themselves in the next respective games. They were actually just 1-1 SU (and 1-1 O/U and ATS) in those games, which tells you that after an offensive stinker, their own defensive play tends to take a step back. Chicago's offense wouldn't scare a 7th grade team right now, but they still are pros, and miscommunication or blown assignments on the back end of LA's defense is something all NFL teams can take advantage of.

Furthermore, LA is going to have a much better idea of what to expect from Chicago after last year's game, and a year to think about schemes that will have much better success against what the Bears run is plenty of time to find at least a few things that work.

It's also not a mid-December game in Chicago, it's in sunny, warm LA and that has to benefit the Rams chances for success on offense much more then walking into Chicago did a year ago. It's still hard to trust either of these teams to put up the necessary points to creep over the current total, but it's something that should be a pass now.

Side Spiel

Because this game is out in LA, and the Rams are in a “do-or-die” mode themselves in terms of making the playoffs this year, it is hard not to like the Rams to cover this number of less than a TD. LA is in just as a precarious spot in terms of trying to stay in the Wildcard picture, because they aren't likely to catch both San Francisco and Seattle. Beating down one of those teams looking up at them like Chicago could be a nice momentum builder for LA as the rest of their schedule is rather tough.

Sean McVay's ability to game plan will pay dividends in this rematch with Chicago too, and while the numbers don't always show it, LA's offense is easier to trust at home. McVay and Goff will have a much better plan set out in terms of attacking this Bears defense, and hopefully it leads to a nice 20+ point effort again coming off a bad offensive showing.

And then, we can't forget that it is the Bears offense on the other side of the field that will need to do more then nothing multiple times to ensure that this game stays within the point spread. At this point I'm not sure how you can thing that will be the case as it's not like LA's defense doesn't have a few talented playmakers as well. Quite frankly, I can't believe I was this wrong on Chicago coming into the year.

Finally, as desperate as Chicago's situation is and could be used as a positive in terms of motivation, do you really think there is that much belief in the locker room that the team can make something out of 2019. Sure, the Bears could win this week to stay alive, but then they've basically got to run the table, get a bit of help, and do it all with QB Mitchell Trubisky who doesn't even want T.V's on in the building because there is so much criticism coming his way. Do you really believe the Bears believe they can overcome all of that, and then go on to make a deep playoff run? I know I sure don't.

Chicago has resigned themselves to their fate of this being a sub-par, lost season weeks ago. Even if the defense plays the best any unit has in the history of football for the next six weeks or so, they've still got to overcome what they put on the field on offense, and long term in 2019, that just isn't going to work. Yes the defense will rise up at least one more time to potentially pull off a big upset – likely at home – a nice, warm trip to sunny Los Angeles in the middle of November isn't where I expect that to be the case. Especially against a Rams team who's underachieved by their standards as well this season.

Final Thoughts

The Rams may be a tough sell for some after what they saw from them in Pittsburgh last week, but they probably only need 20 points here to win and cover the game. Chicago's scored 20 or fewer points in three straight games and six of their nine games this season. The Bears offense has been that bad, and with the locker room already having a sense that the year will end up going nowhere, a trip to LA in November could 'conveniently' be full of distractions for many guys on this Bears team.

LA has a more legitimate shot at playing themselves back into playoff position, and at home and under the lights, they should get it done in relatively comfortable fashion.

Best Bet: LA Rams -6.5

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 11

Thursday, November 14

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PITTSBURGH (5 - 4) at CLEVELAND (3 - 6) - 11/14/2019, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 13-28 ATS (-17.8 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
CLEVELAND is 15-31 ATS (-19.1 Units) in home games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 3-1 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 3-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, November 17

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DALLAS (5 - 4) at DETROIT (3 - 5 - 1) - 11/17/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 48-73 ATS (-32.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 1-0 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 1-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ORLEANS (7 - 2) at TAMPA BAY (3 - 6) - 11/17/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 65-42 ATS (+18.8 Units) in November games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 3-2 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 3-2 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ATLANTA (2 - 7) at CAROLINA (5 - 4) - 11/17/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 32-55 ATS (-28.5 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
CAROLINA is 85-55 ATS (+24.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
CAROLINA is 56-33 ATS (+19.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 3-1 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 3-1 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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JACKSONVILLE (4 - 5) at INDIANAPOLIS (5 - 4) - 11/17/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 28-47 ATS (-23.7 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 3-0 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
JACKSONVILLE is 3-1 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DENVER (3 - 6) at MINNESOTA (7 - 3) - 11/17/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) in dome games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 44-26 ATS (+15.4 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
DENVER is 19-6 ATS (+12.4 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NY JETS (2 - 7) at WASHINGTON (1 - 8) - 11/17/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY JETS are 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 63-98 ATS (-44.8 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 92-123 ATS (-43.3 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 92-123 ATS (-43.3 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 92-123 ATS (-43.3 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 25-48 ATS (-27.8 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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BUFFALO (6 - 3) at MIAMI (2 - 7) - 11/17/2019, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 3-2 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 4-1 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HOUSTON (6 - 3) at BALTIMORE (7 - 2) - 11/17/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 1-0 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 1-0 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ARIZONA (3 - 6 - 1) at SAN FRANCISCO (8 - 0) - 11/17/2019, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 4-1 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 4-1 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ENGLAND (8 - 1) at PHILADELPHIA (5 - 4) - 11/17/2019, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 30-17 ATS (+11.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 30-17 ATS (+11.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 29-17 ATS (+10.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 128-96 ATS (+22.4 Units) in road games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 128-96 ATS (+22.4 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 128-89 ATS (+30.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 90-56 ATS (+28.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 1-0 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 1-0 straight up against NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CINCINNATI (0 - 9) at OAKLAND (5 - 4) - 11/17/2019, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) off a loss against a division rival over the last 3 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 32-16 ATS (+14.4 Units) in road games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 41-82 ATS (-49.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
OAKLAND is 24-44 ATS (-24.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 1-0 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 1-0 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHICAGO (4 - 5) at LA RAMS (5 - 4) - 11/17/2019, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS is 199-243 ATS (-68.3 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 199-243 ATS (-68.3 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 143-191 ATS (-67.1 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS is 153-191 ATS (-57.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
LA RAMS is 72-106 ATS (-44.6 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 1-0 against the spread versus LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 1-0 straight up against LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, November 18

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KANSAS CITY (6 - 4) at LA CHARGERS (4 - 6) - 11/18/2019, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 3 seasons.
LA CHARGERS is 29-15 ATS (+12.5 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 19-36 ATS (-20.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 3-1 against the spread versus LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 3-1 straight up against LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

NFL

Week 11

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday, November 14

Cleveland Browns
Cleveland is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Cleveland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Cleveland is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Cleveland is 7-17-1 SU in its last 25 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 17 of Cleveland's last 25 games at home
Cleveland is 0-4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
Cleveland is 1-4-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Pittsburgh is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games
Pittsburgh is 17-7-1 SU in its last 25 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Pittsburgh's last 9 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
Pittsburgh is 7-0-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing Cleveland
Pittsburgh is 14-3-1 SU in its last 18 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing on the road against Cleveland

Sunday, November 17

Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baltimore's last 7 games
Baltimore is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Baltimore is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games at home
Baltimore is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Houston
Baltimore is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 6 games when playing Houston
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing at home against Houston
Houston Texans
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Houston is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Houston's last 8 games on the road
Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Baltimore
Houston is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games when playing Baltimore
Houston is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing on the road against Baltimore

Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Minnesota is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games
Minnesota is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Minnesota is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Minnesota's last 16 games at home
Minnesota is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Denver
Minnesota is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Denver
Minnesota is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Denver
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing at home against Denver
Denver Broncos
Denver is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Denver is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Denver's last 18 games
Denver is 7-15 ATS in its last 22 games on the road
Denver is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Denver's last 9 games on the road
Denver is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Minnesota
Denver is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Minnesota
Denver is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 6 games when playing on the road against Minnesota

Detroit Lions
Detroit is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Detroit is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 7 games
Detroit is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Detroit is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Detroit's last 9 games at home
Detroit is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Detroit's last 8 games when playing Dallas
Detroit is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Dallas
Detroit is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Dallas
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Dallas is 13-6 SU in its last 19 games
Dallas is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games on the road
Dallas is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Dallas's last 8 games when playing Detroit
Dallas is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Dallas is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Detroit

Carolina Panthers
Carolina is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Carolina is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games
Carolina is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games at home
Carolina is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Carolina's last 11 games at home
Carolina is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Atlanta
Carolina is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Carolina's last 12 games when playing Atlanta
Carolina is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Carolina's last 6 games when playing at home against Atlanta
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Atlanta is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games
Atlanta is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Atlanta is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games on the road
Atlanta is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Carolina
Atlanta is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Atlanta's last 12 games when playing Carolina
Atlanta is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games when playing on the road against Carolina

Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Indianapolis is 15-6 SU in its last 21 games
Indianapolis is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Indianapolis is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 6 games at home
Indianapolis is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
Indianapolis is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
Indianapolis is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Jacksonville
Indianapolis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Jacksonville
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Indianapolis's last 8 games when playing at home against Jacksonville
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville is 7-12-2 ATS in its last 21 games
Jacksonville is 6-15 SU in its last 21 games
Jacksonville is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Jacksonville is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games on the road
Jacksonville is 7-0-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Indianapolis
Jacksonville is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
Jacksonville is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
Jacksonville is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Jacksonville's last 8 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis

Miami Dolphins
Miami is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Miami is 2-10 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami's last 8 games
Miami is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Miami is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games at home
Miami is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Miami's last 9 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Miami's last 13 games when playing at home against Buffalo
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Buffalo's last 9 games
Buffalo is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Buffalo is 8-15 SU in its last 23 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 5 games on the road
Buffalo is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Miami
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Buffalo's last 9 games when playing Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Buffalo's last 13 games when playing on the road against Miami

Washington Redskins
Washington is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
Washington is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 5 games
Washington is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Washington is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home
Washington is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing NY Jets
Washington is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing NY Jets
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games when playing NY Jets
Washington is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against NY Jets
New York Jets
NY Jets is 3-8-1 ATS in its last 12 games
NY Jets is 3-16 SU in its last 19 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Jets's last 5 games
NY Jets is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
NY Jets is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Jets's last 7 games on the road
NY Jets is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Washington
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Jets's last 6 games when playing Washington

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Tampa Bay is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games
Tampa Bay is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Tampa Bay is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Tampa Bay's last 23 games at home
Tampa Bay is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing New Orleans
Tampa Bay is 4-12 SU in its last 16 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Tampa Bay's last 22 games when playing New Orleans
Tampa Bay is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against New Orleans
Tampa Bay is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing at home against New Orleans
New Orleans Saints
New Orleans is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
New Orleans is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games
New Orleans is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games on the road
New Orleans is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of New Orleans's last 11 games on the road
New Orleans is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
New Orleans is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of New Orleans's last 22 games when playing Tampa Bay
New Orleans is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
New Orleans is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Orleans's last 6 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay

San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games
San Francisco is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
San Francisco is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games at home
San Francisco is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Arizona
San Francisco is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing Arizona
San Francisco is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Arizona
San Francisco is 16-7 SU in its last 23 games when playing at home against Arizona
San Francisco is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Arizona
Arizona Cardinals
Arizona is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Arizona is 3-10-1 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games
Arizona is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Arizona is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games on the road
Arizona is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing San Francisco
Arizona is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games when playing San Francisco
Arizona is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
Arizona is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
Arizona is 7-16 SU in its last 23 games when playing on the road against San Francisco

Oakland Raiders
Oakland is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Oakland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Oakland's last 7 games
Oakland is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Oakland is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
Oakland is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Cincinnati
Oakland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Oakland's last 9 games when playing Cincinnati
Oakland is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
Oakland is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 7 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Cincinnati is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 5 games on the road
Cincinnati is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Oakland
Cincinnati is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cincinnati's last 9 games when playing Oakland
Cincinnati is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Oakland
Cincinnati is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 7 games when playing on the road against Oakland

Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Philadelphia is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Philadelphia is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 games at home
Philadelphia is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Philadelphia's last 17 games at home
Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New England
Philadelphia is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing New England
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing New England
Philadelphia is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against New England
New England Patriots
New England is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
New England is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of New England's last 21 games
New England is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
New England is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New England's last 6 games on the road
New England is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
New England is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
New England is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia

Los Angeles Rams
LA Rams is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games
LA Rams is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games
LA Rams is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Rams's last 5 games
LA Rams is 4-6-2 ATS in its last 12 games at home
LA Rams is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Rams's last 5 games at home
LA Rams is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Chicago
LA Rams is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Rams's last 6 games when playing Chicago
LA Rams is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Chicago
LA Rams is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against Chicago
Chicago Bears
Chicago is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Chicago is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Chicago's last 14 games
Chicago is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 6 games on the road
Chicago is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games when playing LA Rams
Chicago is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing LA Rams
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 6 games when playing LA Rams
Chicago is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Rams
Chicago is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games when playing on the road against LA Rams

Monday, November 18

Los Angeles Chargers
LA Chargers is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 games
LA Chargers is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of LA Chargers's last 9 games
LA Chargers is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Kansas City
LA Chargers is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 6 games when playing Kansas City
LA Chargers is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Kansas City
LA Chargers is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Kansas City
Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Kansas City is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games
Kansas City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Kansas City's last 10 games on the road
Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Chargers
Kansas City is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing LA Chargers
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games when playing LA Chargers
Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers

NFL
Dunkel

Week 11

Thursday, November 14

Pittsburgh @ Cleveland

Game 309-310
November 14, 2019 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Pittsburgh
130.127
Cleveland
135.150
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cleveland
by 5
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cleveland
by 2 1/2
40
Dunkel Pick:
Cleveland
(-2 1/2); Over

Sunday, November 17

Atlanta @ Carolina

Game 455-456
November 17, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
129.301
Carolina
131.750
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Carolina
by 2 1/2
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Carolina
by 6
50 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(+6); Under

Houston @ Baltimore

Game 465-466
November 17, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
136.983
Baltimore
144.237
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Baltimore
by 7 1/2
56
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
by 4
49 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Baltimore
(-4); Over

Denver @ Minnesota

Game 459-460
November 17, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Denver
131.605
Minnesota
137.523
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 6
36
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 10 1/2
39 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(+10 1/2); Under

Buffalo @ Miami

Game 463-464
November 17, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Buffalo
130.058
Miami
122.189
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Buffalo
by 8
45
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Buffalo
by 5 1/2
41
Dunkel Pick:
Buffalo
(-5 1/2); Over

Jacksonville @ Indianapolis

Game 457-458
November 17, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Jacksonville
129.663
Indianapolis
129.721
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Jacksonville
Even
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Indianapolis
by 3 1/2
44
Dunkel Pick:
Jacksonville
(+3 1/2); Under

NY Jets @ Washington

Game 461-462
November 17, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Jets
118.753
Washington
121.846
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 3
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
by 1
38
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(-1); Over

Dallas @ Detroit

Game 451-452
November 17, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Dallas
135.458
Detroit
127.322
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Dallas
by 8
56
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Dallas
by 3 1/2
51 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Dallas
(-3 1/2); Over

New Orleans @ Tampa Bay

Game 453-454
November 17, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New Orleans
132.900
Tampa Bay
130.120
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
by 3
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 5 1/2
50 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Tampa Bay
(+5 1/2); Under

Arizona @ San Francisco

Game 467-468
November 17, 2019 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Arizona
124.668
San Francisco
139.856
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Francisco
by 15
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Francisco
by 11 1/2
45 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
San Francisco
(-11 1/2); Over

New England @ Philadelphia

Game 469-470
November 17, 2019 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New England
137.958
Philadelphia
137.793
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
Even
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 3 1/2
45
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(+3 1/2); Under

Cincinnati @ Oakland

Game 471-472
November 17, 2019 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cincinnati
121.990
Oakland
129.755
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oakland
by 8
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oakland
by 10 1/2
48 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Cincinnati
(+10 1/2); Under

Chicago @ LA Rams

Game 473-474
November 17, 2019 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago
131.364
LA Rams
133.430
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Rams
by 2
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Rams
by 7
41
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago
(+7); Over

Monday, November 18

Kansas City @ LA Chargers

Game 475-476
November 18, 2019 @ 8:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Kansas City
134.060
LA Chargers
133.219
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 1
55
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 4
52
Dunkel Pick:
LA Chargers
(+4); Over