NFL Betting News, Match-Ups and Trends For Week 1

NFL Matchups

Week 1 Angles - Super Bowl Winners and Losers
Matt Blunt

SUPER BOWL COMBATANTS

With the NFL the next sport up to take their crack at getting through a season in this unique year, hopefully some of the annual angles bettors like to bring up during football season remain relevant.

And while any February hangover would have had anyone sobered up pretty quick, one of my favorite opening week angles is to look at the season opener for those two teams that went the distance last year.

The two teams tend to change from year to year, but the Week 1 results do have some strong historical precedent, so let's take a look at some perspectives the Week 1 games in Kansas City and San Francisco.

Both teams are currently laying at least a touchdown for those season/home openers as well.

SUPER BOWL WINNERS IN WEEK 1

Thanks to the Patriots beating Pittsburgh as -5.5 home favorites in Week 1 last year, the reigning champs are now 17-3 straight up (SU) and 13-5-2 against the spread (ATS) in the season opener the following year.

That's a blind system that bodes well for Chiefs fans later in the week, as they come in as a -9.5 home favorite for their opener on Thursday Night.

SB Week 1 Winner Matchup: Kansas City -9.5 vs. Houston

Tough to argue against them winning the game with that 17-3 SU record, but it's also could be a huge motivational edge on Houston's side with the revenge factor for them losing 51-31 in the Divisional Round in this stadium a year ago. It's more of how Houston loss that game – blowing the big early lead – that actually might make this a stronger revenge spot then seemingly equal ones, but to bet into that history is tough as well.

What makes this year's game more convoluted for backing the defending champs though is the fact that these Super Bowl winners since 2000, when laying a TD or more, are 5-1 SU and 3-2-1 ATS.

Total bettors should note that the 'over-under' (OU) is 4-2 in those games.

That's a high success rate on the outright, but not as rosy on the ATS number, and the prospect of anyone winning a game by more than a TD in a season opener after the lack of a regular summer/training camp/preseason games does seem a bit harder to get behind this year.

But the past doesn't lie, and you can bet at a 17-3 SU rate blind, the Chiefs ML option this week will be tied into a heck of a lot of parlays out there for Sunday's action.

You can follow the line movements on this matchup and most would expect the Kansas City (-475) market will be driven upwards by kickoff.

SUPER BOWL LOSERS IN WEEK 1

The Los Angeles Rams were able to buck most of the negative history Super Bowl losers have in their season opener the following campaign, although the 30-27 win over Carolina last year came with plenty of sweat attached to it.

The Rams victory as -1.5 road chalk both SU and ATS put the record for defending Super Bowl “losers” in their opener the following year at 8-13 SU and 6-15 ATS the past 21 years.

LA's win also marked the second time we've had a streak of at least three years where these “losers” end up winning their opener the following year, and never have we had a streak of more than three seasons in that regard.

SB Loser Week 1 Matchup: Arizona at San Francisco (-7)

Does that mean an Arizona Cardinals ML (+245) selection is in play this week?

Arizona visits San Francisco to start the 2020 campaign, and with the 49ers losing the Super Bowl the way they did, they do look like the prime profile of a Super Bowl 'loser' that's likely better to be faded in their opener.

That doesn't necessarily mean a Cardinals ML play is the best way to go about things here, but seven points is a lot to lay for a division game out of the gate, when the last “normal” month the country experienced this year started with the toughest loss in the careers of those 49ers players.

That is a team that's going to have to prove it to me from the start, at least to show that they are mentally invested in this year from start to finish more than anything. If they aren't and do experience a post-Super Bowl slumber, then these point spreads are going to be quite high for them to cover at least early on.

With the horrible ATS record Super Bowl 'losers' have had this century, it's as though there are quite a few angles lining up on Arizona for the game.

Hopefully they don't become too public of a dog.

451HOUSTON -452 KANSAS CITY
KANSAS CITY is 11-3 ATS (7.7 Units) against conference opponents in the last 2 seasons.

453MIAMI -454 NEW ENGLAND
NEW ENGLAND is 130-90 ATS (31 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

455CLEVELAND -456 BALTIMORE
BALTIMORE is 16-6 ATS (9.4 Units) in home games in the 1rst 2 weeks of the season since 1992.

457NY JETS -458 BUFFALO
BUFFALO is 46-28 ATS (15.2 Units) at home when the total is 38.5-42 since 1992.

459LAS VEGAS -460 CAROLINA
LAS VEGAS are 55-85 ATS (-38.5 Units) when the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.

461SEATTLE -462 ATLANTA
ATLANTA is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 in the last 3 seasons.

463PHILADELPHIA -464 WASHINGTON
WASHINGTON is 15-34 ATS (-22.4 Units) in home games in September games since 1992.

465CHICAGO -466 DETROIT
CHICAGO is 30-52 ATS (-27.2 Units) in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.

469GREEN BAY -470 MINNESOTA
MINNESOTA is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points in the last 3 seasons.

471LA CHARGERS -472 CINCINNATI
LA CHARGERS are 49-29 ATS (17.1 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

475TAMPA BAY -476 NEW ORLEANS
NEW ORLEANS are 36-56 ATS (-25.6 Units) in home games vs. division opponents since 1992.

477DALLAS -478 LA RAMS
LA RAMS are 21-39 ATS (-21.9 Units) against the NFC East since 1992.

479PITTSBURGH -480 NY GIANTS
NY GIANTS are 1-10 ATS (-10 Units) in home games as a dog in the last 3 seasons.

481TENNESSEE -482 DENVER
TENNESSEE is 125-159 ATS (-49.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 1

Thursday, September 10

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HOUSTON (11 - 7) at KANSAS CITY (15 - 4) - 9/10/2020, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 60-37 ATS (+19.3 Units) in September games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 1-1 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 1-1 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, September 13

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MIAMI (5 - 11) at NEW ENGLAND (12 - 5) - 9/13/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 270-208 ATS (+41.2 Units) in all games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 270-208 ATS (+41.2 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 207-153 ATS (+38.7 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 130-90 ATS (+31.0 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 2-2 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 2-2 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CLEVELAND (6 - 10) at BALTIMORE (14 - 3) - 9/13/2020, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 3-1 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 2-2 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY JETS (7 - 9) at BUFFALO (10 - 7) - 9/13/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 46-28 ATS (+15.2 Units) in a home game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 2-2 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 2-2 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LAS VEGAS (7 - 9) at CAROLINA (5 - 11) - 9/13/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LAS VEGAS is 55-85 ATS (-38.5 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SEATTLE (12 - 6) at ATLANTA (7 - 9) - 9/13/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 0-0 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 1-0 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHILADELPHIA (9 - 8) at WASHINGTON (3 - 13) - 9/13/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 78-54 ATS (+18.6 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 93-126 ATS (-45.6 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 93-126 ATS (-45.6 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 68-97 ATS (-38.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 93-126 ATS (-45.6 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 15-34 ATS (-22.4 Units) in home games in September games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 3-1 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 4-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHICAGO (8 - 8) at DETROIT (3 - 12 - 1) - 9/13/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 54-81 ATS (-35.1 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
DETROIT is 65-90 ATS (-34.0 Units) as a favorite since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 3-1 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 4-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANAPOLIS (7 - 9) at JACKSONVILLE (6 - 10) - 9/13/2020, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 2-1 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
JACKSONVILLE is 2-2 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GREEN BAY (14 - 4) at MINNESOTA (11 - 7) - 9/13/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 36-18 ATS (+16.2 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 3-1 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 2-1 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LA CHARGERS (5 - 11) at CINCINNATI (2 - 14) - 9/13/2020, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CHARGERS are 129-96 ATS (+23.4 Units) in road games since 1992.
LA CHARGERS are 129-96 ATS (+23.4 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
LA CHARGERS are 49-29 ATS (+17.1 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 1-0 against the spread versus LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
LA CHARGERS is 1-0 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ARIZONA (5 - 10 - 1) at SAN FRANCISCO (15 - 4) - 9/13/2020, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 3-0 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-2 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TAMPA BAY (7 - 9) at NEW ORLEANS (13 - 4) - 9/13/2020, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 36-56 ATS (-25.6 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 3-1 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 3-1 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DALLAS (8 - 8) at LA RAMS (9 - 7) - 9/13/2020, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS are 148-192 ATS (-63.2 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS are 21-39 ATS (-21.9 Units) against NFC East division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA RAMS is 1-1 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
LA RAMS is 1-1 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, September 14

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PITTSBURGH (8 - 8) at NY GIANTS (4 - 12) - 9/14/2020, 7:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 109-80 ATS (+21.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TENNESSEE (11 - 8) at DENVER (7 - 9) - 9/14/2020, 10:10 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 125-159 ATS (-49.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 1-0 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 1-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 1

Thursday

Texans @ Kansas City
— Chiefs beat Houston 51-31 here in playoffs LY, after trailing 24-0 at one point; Texans won 31-24 here in regular season.
— Houston covered 8 of last 12 tries as a road underdog.
— Texans lost four of last five road openers (6-4-1 ATS in last 11).

— Since 2017, Kansas City is 17-10 ATS as a home favorite.
— Chiefs started out 1-0 the last five years, scoring 36 ppg in last five openers.
— Over is 4-0-1 in Chiefs’ last five home openers

— KC is 7-5 overall in series games, with teams splitting four games in Arrowhead..

Sunday

Seahawks @ Atlanta
— Seattle lost 11 of its last 13 road openers, winning LY at Pitt when Big Ben didn’t play in 2nd half.
— Last three years, Seahawks are 13-9-2 ATS on the road.

— Atlanta won last three home openers, by 11-7-4 points.
— Last two years, Falcons are 6-9-2 vs spread at home.

— Dan Quinn coaches against his mentor Pete Carroll; Seahawks won 27-20 here LY, just their third win in last nine series games.
— Teams split Seattle’s last six visits to Peachtree Street..

Jets @ Buffalo
— Jets are 17-6 ATS in their last 23 road openers.
— Jets are 9-16-1 ATS in last 26 games as a road underdog.
— Last four years, Gang Green is 4-6-2 ATS in AFC East road games.

— Bills won six of last nine home openers (8-5 ATS in last 13)
— Buffalo is 5-2 ATS in last seven home openers as a home favorite.
— Last two years, Bills are 3-5 ATS as a home favorite.
— Under is 5-2 in Buffalo’s last seven home openers.

— Home side lost last four series games; teams scored total of only 52 points in their two meetings LY.
— Jets won 27-23/13-6 in their last two trips to western NY.
— Teams split last six series games.

Bears @ Detroit
— Trubisky is expected to start at QB for Chicago.
— Bears are 8-13 ATS in last 21 games as a road underdog.
— Under Nagy, Chicago is 6-9 ATS on the road.
— 16 of Chicago’s last 19 road openers stayed under total

— Last two years, Detroit is 7-9 ATS at home.
— Lions are 9-22-1 under Patricia; they were 36-28 under Caldwell, his predecessor.
— Detroit won six of its last nine home openers (over 7-3 in last 10).

— Chicago won last four series games, winning 23-16/24-20 in their last two visits to the Motor City.

Packers @ Minnesota
— Since 2013, Green Bay is 10-14-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— Packers are 4-8 ATS in last 12 NFC North road games.
— Over is 11-3 in Green Bay’s last 14 road openers

— Under Zimmer, Minnesota is 26-10-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Vikings are 10-4 ATS in last 14 NFC North home games.
— Vikings won/covered their last five home openers (under 6-0 last six)
— Minnesota is on its 5th offensive coordinator in six years.

— Green Bay swept series 21-16/23-10 LY, after going 1-8-1 in previous ten series games.
— Packers lost three of last four visits here, losing by 3-13-7 points..

Dolphins @ New England
— Fitzpatrick is Miami’s QB, with oft-injured rookie Tagovailoa only backup on roster.
— Since 2014, Miami is 16-25 ATS as road underdogs (5-3 LY)
— Miami covered six of its last eight road openers.

— First game in long time where Tom Brady isn’t a Patriot.
— Since 2015, New England is 24-12-3 ATS as a home favorite.
— NE won 16 of its last 18 home openers (9-7-2 ATS)

— Dolphins upset New England at home in Week 17 LY, after losing first meeting here 43-0.
— Miami lost 10 of last 11 visits to Foxboro.
— Patriots’ last four series wins were all by 18+ points.

Eagles @ Washington
— Last three years, Philly is 7-6 ATS as a road favorite.
— Eagles covered six of last nine NFC East road games.
— Under is 3-1-1 in Eagles’ last five road openers.
— Wentz had some injury issues in training camp.

— Ron Rivera is Redskins’ new coach; his Panthers split their last four meetings with Philly.
— Rivera was 12-7-1 ATS as a home underdog in Carolina.
— Washington is 5-7 ATS in last 12 games as a home underdog.
— Washington lost five in row, seven of last eight home openers.

— Philly won last six series games, winning last three visits here, all by 10+ points.
— Last four series totals were all 47+.

Raiders @ Charlotte
— Last three years, Las Vegas is 7-15-2 ATS on the road.
— Raiders covered four of their last five road openers.

— New coaches, new QB, no off-season program.
— Since 2016, Panthers are 14-17-1 ATS at home.
— Under is 6-2 in Panthers’ last eight season openers.

— Home side won four of six Las Vegas-Carolina games.
— Raiders lost two of three visits here, with last visit in 2012- they won here in ’04. Carolina won five of its last six home openers (4-2 ATS).

Colts @ Jacksonville
— Under Reich, Colts are 3-2 ATS as a road favorite.
— Colts covered four of last six AFC South road games.
— Indy lost eight of its last ten road openers, five of last six season openers.

— Jaguars are 16-30-1 ATS in last 47 games as a home underdog.
— Jacksonville did cover nine of last 14 AFC South home games.
— Jaguars lost seven of last eight home openers, last four of which went over total.

— Home side won nine of last ten series games.
— Jaguars won six of last nine games with Indy, winning last four played here, three of them by 20+ points.

Browns @ Baltimore
— Cleveland has its 9th head coach in the last 13 years.
— Since 2013, Cleveland is 10-17-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— Since 2003, Browns, are 6-9-2 ATS in road openers.

— Baltimore won its last four Week 1 games, by combined score of 139-20.
— Ravens won 13 of last 15 home openers (10-5 ATS).
— Last five years, Baltimore is 12-19-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Ravens’ QB Jackson was limited some in summer camp with a leg injury.

— Ravens won seven of last nine series games; road team won both meetings LY.
— Browns lost three of last four visits here, losing by 21-14-2 points.

Chargers @ Cincinnati
— First game in long time where Philip Rivers isn’t the Chargers’ QB.
— Last three years, Chargers are 7-3-1 ATS as a road favorite.
— Chargers covered six of their last eight road openers.

— Rookie QB Burow gets nod at QB, without having played in a preseason game.
— Last two years, Bengals are 5-10-1 ATS at home.
— Cincy is 2-6-1 ATS in last nine games as a home underdog.

— Road team in 6-4 in this series.
— Bengals won four of last six meetings, with teams splitting last four meetings played here.

Buccaneers @ New Orleans
— First game in pewter/red for Tom Brady.
— Arians is 5-11 ATS in last 16 games as a road underdog.
— Tampa Bay won four of its last five road openers.
— How much of Tampa’s offense can RB Fournette pick up in 10 days?

— Saints lost four of last five home openers (0-5 ATS).
— Since 2014, New Orleans is 15-25-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Average total in Saints’ last four home openers: 62.8.

— These NFC South rivals split their season series each of last four years.
— Bucs lost three of last five games in Superdome; they were swept 34-17/31-24 by NO last year.

Cardinals @ San Francisco
— Arizona added star WR Hopkins in off-season, figures to be even more pass-happy.
— Cardinals are 9-5-2 ATS in last 16 games as a road underdog.
— Cardinals lost their last four road openers, by average score of 31-15.

— 49ers are 7-15-2 ATS in last 24 games as a home favorite.
— Niners covered twice in last nine NFC West home games.
— Five of 49ers’ last six home openers stayed under the total

— 49ers swept Arizona 36-26/28-25 LY, after losing previous eight series games.
— Four of last seven series games were decided by 3 points.
— Redbirds won four of their last five visits here..

Cowboys @ Rams
— New coach, same offensive coordinator.
— Special teams coach Fassel, K Zeurlein came to Dallas from the Rams.
— Since 2014, Dallas is 15-9-1 ATS as a road favorite.
— Dallas covered 10 of its last 13 road openers (5-5 SU last ten)

— Under McVay, Rams were 14-8 SU in the LA Coliseum.
— Rams are 1-6-1 ATS in last eight games as a home underdog.
— Rams won/covered their last five home openers.

— First NFL game in brand-new Sofi Stadium.
— Dallas won four of last six series games; they ran ball for 260 yards in their 44-21 win over LA last year.
— Cowboys lost last visits to Tinseltown 30-22 in ’18 playoffs..

Monday

Steelers @ Giants
— Last four years, Steelers are 4-10-1 ATS as a road favorite.
— Last five years, Pittsburgh is 14-6 ATS against NFC teams.
— 10 of Steelers’ last 13 road openers stayed under the total.

— Giants started out 0-1 seven of last eight years.
— New head coach and staff; Jason Garrett is the new OC.
— Giants are 4-13 ATS in last 17 games as a home underdog.
— Last four years, Giants are 10-6 ATS vs AFC opponents.
— Big Blue’s last six home openers stayed under the total.

— Steelers won last two series games 24-20/24-14; their last series win was in ’08.

Titans @ Denver
— Since 2014, Tennessee is 14-22 ATS as a road underdog.
— Tennessee won six of last seven road openers, covered nine of last 12.

— Denver is 20-10-1 ATS in its last 31 home openers.
— Last three years, Denver is 3-8-2 ATS as a home favorite.
— Over is 8-4-1 in their last 13 home openers.

— Broncos won five of last seven series games, beating Titans 16-0 LY, the game where Tannehill replaced Mariota as Tennessee’s QB.
— Titans lost their last seven trips here; their last win in Denver was in 1980 (they won an ’87 strike game, but I don’t count those).

NFL

Week 1

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Trend Report
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Thursday, September 10

Houston @ Kansas City
Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games when playing Kansas City
Kansas City
Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

Sunday, September 13

Green Bay @ Minnesota
Green Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Green Bay's last 5 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
Green Bay is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing at home against Green Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing Green Bay

Miami @ New England
Miami
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Miami's last 7 games
Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
New England
New England is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Miami
New England is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Miami

Chicago @ Detroit
Chicago
Chicago is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Chicago's last 21 games
Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Detroit's last 7 games at home
Detroit is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Chicago

Seattle @ Atlanta
Seattle
Seattle is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Seattle's last 9 games when playing Atlanta
Atlanta
Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Seattle
Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

Philadelphia @ Washington
Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Washington
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 7 games on the road
Washington
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Washington's last 12 games at home

Indianapolis @ Jacksonville
Indianapolis
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 6 games when playing on the road against Jacksonville
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Indianapolis's last 18 games when playing Jacksonville
Jacksonville
Jacksonville is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
Jacksonville is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Indianapolis

Cleveland @ Baltimore
Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 7 games when playing Baltimore
Cleveland is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
Baltimore
Baltimore is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games
Baltimore is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home

NY Jets @ Buffalo
NY Jets
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Jets's last 6 games
NY Jets is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Buffalo's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games at home

Las Vegas @ Carolina
Las Vegas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Las Vegas's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Las Vegas's last 7 games
Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina's last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina's last 6 games

LA Chargers @ Cincinnati
LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 6 games on the road
Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 5 games when playing LA Chargers
Cincinnati is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing LA Chargers

Arizona @ San Francisco
Arizona
Arizona is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing San Francisco
Arizona is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing San Francisco
San Francisco
San Francisco is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

Tampa Bay @ New Orleans
Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Tampa Bay's last 14 games
New Orleans
New Orleans is 12-3 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay

Dallas @ LA Rams
Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Rams
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing LA Rams
LA Rams
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Rams's last 6 games when playing at home against Dallas
LA Rams is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

Monday, September 14

Pittsburgh @ NY Giants
Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Pittsburgh's last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Pittsburgh's last 8 games on the road
NY Giants
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Giants's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Giants's last 5 games at home

Tennessee @ Denver
Tennessee
Tennessee is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Tennessee is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Denver
Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Tennessee
Denver is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Tennessee

NFL
Dunkel

Week 1

Thursday, September 10

Houston @ Kansas City

Game 451-452
September 10, 2020 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
129.453
Kansas City
148.634
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 19
55
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 9 1/2
53 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
(-9 1/2); Over

Sunday, September 13

Seattle @ Atlanta

Game 461-462
September 13, 2020 @ 12:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Seattle
131.622
Atlanta
138.109
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 6 1/2
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 1 1/2
49
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(+1 1/2); Under

Philadelphia @ Washington

Game 463-464
September 13, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
125.743
Washington
124.148
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 1 1/2
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
by 6 1/2
44
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(+6 1/2); Under

Green Bay @ Minnesota

Game 469-470
September 13, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Green Bay
129.285
Minnesota
138.813
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 9 1/2
40
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 2 1/2
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(-2 1/2); Under

Indianapolis @ Jacksonville

Game 467-468
September 13, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Indianapolis
131.769
Jacksonville
120.616
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Indianapolis
by 11
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Indianapolis
by 7
45
Dunkel Pick:
Indianapolis
(-7); Over

Chicago @ Detroit

Game 465-466
September 13, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago
130.686
Detroit
124.029
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Chicago
by 6 1/2
45
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Detroit
by 3
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago
(+3); Over

Cleveland @ Baltimore

Game 455-456
September 13, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cleveland
130.900
Baltimore
137.346
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Baltimore
by 6 1/2
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
by 9
48 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Cleveland
(+9); Under

Las Vegas @ Carolina

Game 459-460
September 13, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Las Vegas
119.780
Carolina
122.407
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Carolina
by 2 1/2
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Las Vegas
by 3
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Carolina
(+3); Under

Miami @ New England

Game 453-454
September 13, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
131.183
New England
129.167
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Miami
by 2
40
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 7
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(+7); Under

NY Jets @ Buffalo

Game 457-458
September 13, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Jets
132.901
Buffalo
130.194
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Jets
by 3
34
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Buffalo
by 6 1/2
40
Dunkel Pick:
NY Jets
(+6 1/2); Under

LA Chargers @ Cincinnati

Game 471-472
September 13, 2020 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Chargers
131.148
Cincinnati
120.283
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Chargers
by 11
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Chargers
by 3
44
Dunkel Pick:
LA Chargers
(-3); Over

Tampa Bay @ New Orleans

Game 475-476
September 13, 2020 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
132.686
New Orleans
139.426
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
by 7
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 3 1/2
49 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New Orleans
(-3 1/2); Over

Arizona @ San Francisco

Game 473-474
September 13, 2020 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Arizona
130.319
San Francisco
141.455
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Francisco
by 11
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Francisco
by 7
47
Dunkel Pick:
San Francisco
(-7); Over

Dallas @ LA Rams

Game 477-478
September 13, 2020 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Dallas
133.577
LA Rams
135.391
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Rams
by 2
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Dallas
by 2 1/2
52
Dunkel Pick:
LA Rams
(+2 1/2); Under

Monday, September 14

Pittsburgh @ NY Giants

Game 479-480
September 14, 2020 @ 7:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Pittsburgh
130.253
NY Giants
122.754
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 7 1/2
33
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
by 3 1/2
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Pittsburgh
(-3 1/2); Under

Tennessee @ Denver

Game 481-482
September 14, 2020 @ 10:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tennessee
134.094
Denver
138.478
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Denver
by 4 1/2
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Denver
by 1
41 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(-1); Under

Tech Trends - Week 1
Bruce Marshall

Thursday, September 10

HOUSTON at KANSAS CITY (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)

Texans 9-3-2 vs. spread last 14 as regular season visitor and 8-3 last 11 as regular season dog.
Chiefs closed 2019 with wins and covers in last nine, covering last six at Arrowhead (all as chalk) after dropping preceding 4 and 8 of 9 vs. number as host.
KC also “over” 44-23 since 2016, and last three meetings “over” since 2017.
Teams split two games at Arrowhead last season.

Tech edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends

Sunday, September 13

MIAMI at NEW ENGLAND (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Prior to upset in Week 17 last December, Dolphins had lost and failed to cover previous seven at Gillette Stadium, and had lost 10 in a row outright at Foxborough.
Dolphins closed fast in 2019, covering 9 of last 12, all as dog.
Patriots dropped 5 of last 7 vs. number in 2019, and now “under” 19-10 since mid 2018.

Tech Edge: Slight to Patriots and “under,” based on extended trends

CLEVELAND at BALTIMORE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Head coach Kevin Stefanski debut for Browns.
Ravens closed 2019 regular season winning last 12 outright and covering 8 of last 9.
Browns, however, did deal Baltimore its only regular season home loss in Week 4 and have covered last two at M&T Bank Stadium.
Cleveland only covered 4 of last 12 a season ago after that win over Ravens.

Tech Edge: Ravens, based on recent trends

NY JETS at BUFFALO (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Road team has won and covered last four meetings.
Bills were just 1-4 vs. spread at Orchard Park last season.
Buffalo on 23-9 “under” run since early 2018.
Jets “under” 5-1 last six in 2019.

Tech Edge: Jets and “under,” based on series and “totals” trends

LAS VEGAS at CAROLINA (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Head coach Matt Rhule debut for Panthers.
Raiders lost 5 of last 6 SU and dropped 5 of last 7 vs. line in 2019.
Also “under” 6-1 last 7 in 2019, and “under” 21-11 since 2018.
Panthers however closed 2019 dropping last 8 outright and just 1-6-1 vs. spread in those games, and only 3-7-1 vs. number last 11 at Charlotte since mid 2018.
Panthers “over” 11-5 last season.

Tech Edge: Slight to Raiders, based on team trends

SEATTLE at ATLANTA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Seahawks on 9-3-1 spread run away from CenturyLink Field in regular season.
Visiting team is 12-4-1 vs. number in Seattle regular-season games since late 2018.
Falcons covered last 4 and 7 of last 9 in 2019, also winning 6 of last 8 outright.
'Hawks “over” 16-8 in regular season play since mid 2018.

Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends

PHILADELPHIA at WASHINGTON (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Head coach Ron Rivera debut for Washington (if he’s healthy).
Philly has won and covered last four in series, both meetings “over” last season.
Washington 2-8 vs. points last 10 at FedEx Field.

Tech Edge: Eagles, based on team and series trends

CHICAGO at DETROIT (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Bears have won all four meetings since 2018, covering three of those.
Though note Chicago enters 2020 on a 4-13 spread skid.
Bears were 1-7 vs. line as visitor in 2019 after winning and covering 4 of last 5 away in 2018.
Lions dropped last nine outright a year ago and covered just 2 of last 11 in 2019.
Detroit also “under” 11-2 last 13 at Ford Field.

Tech Edge: Slight to Bears and “under,” based on series and “totals” trends

INDIANAPOLIS at JACKSONVILLE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Jags lost and failed to cover 6 of last 8 a year ago.
But they have won and covered last four as series host vs. Colts (five if counting London game in 2016) and were 3-1 vs. line getting 6 or more points a year ago.
Jags 8-1-1 vs. number against Indy since 2015.

Tech Edge: Jags, based on series trends

GREEN BAY at MINNESOTA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Packers won and covered both meetings last season.
Vikings however have won and covered last four and five of six openers under Mike Zimmer.
“Unders” 9-2 last 11 in series.

Tech Edge: “Under,” based on series trends

L.A. CHARGERS at CINCINNATI (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)

Chargers fell apart late 2019, losing and failing to cover 6 of last 7.
Bolts 3-7 vs. line last ten away from home, and just 1-8 laying points a year ago.
Cincy only 3-10-1 vs. spread last 14 at Paul Brown Stadium but was 3-2-1 last six as dog in 2019.

Tech Edge: Slight to Bengals, based on team trends

ARIZONA at SAN FRANCISCO (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)

Cards played Niners tough last season and very unfortunate to get push out of second meeting after covering in desert.
Big Red 4-0-1 vs. spread last five in series and on 11-5-1 spread uptick since late 2018.
Cards 6-1-1 vs. spread away in 2019, now 7-1-1 vs. line last nine as a visitor.
Niners were just 3-4-1 vs. spread at home in regular season of 2019.

Tech Edge: Cards, based on series and team trends

TAMPA BAY at NEW ORLEANS (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)

Bruce Arians only 5-10-1 vs. line in his Bucs debut season a year ago.
Note - his second year at Arizona in 2014 produced 11-5 SU and spread marks.
Bucs “over” 12-4 in 2019, Arians teams now “over” 27-12 dating back to mid 2016 with Cards.
Over now 5-2 last seven in this series.
Saints only 4-9 vs. number last 11 at Superdome.

Tech Edge: “Over” and Bucs, based on “totals” and team trends.

DALLAS at L.A. RAMS (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)

Rams open new SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles.
Cowboys won big 44-21 last December vs. LA at Arlington.
Dallas “over” 22-12 since 2018, both meetings vs. Rams “over” past two years.
Rams were only 5-9 vs. spread their last 14 as host at Coliseum.
McVay has covered in openers the past three seasons.

Tech Edge: Slight to “over” and Rams, based on “totals” and team trends

Monday, September 14

PITTSBURGH at NY GIANTS (ESPN, 7:15 p.m. ET)

Head coach Joe Judge debut for New York.
Steelers “under” 12-4 last season (almost all of it minus Big Ben), now “under” 17-6 last 23 since late 2018.
Steel also just 1-6-1 last eight as visiting chalk since 2018.
Giants “over” 16-8 since mid 2018 but just 2-8 vs. points last 10 at MetLife.

Tech Edge: Slight to Giants, based on team trends.

TENNESSEE at DENVER (ESPN, 10:10 p.m. ET)

Broncos blanked Titans 16-0 in Week 6 last season, and quietly covered 8 of last 12 for Fangio in 2019.
Denver on 17-7 “under” run since mid 2018 (9-7 “under’ in 2019).
Titans covered 5 of their last 6 on road down the stretch last season.

Tech Edge: Slight to “under,” based on “totals” trends

Hot & Not Report - Week 1
Matt Blunt

Who's Hot

Over the past three years, in Week 1, playoff teams from the previous year are 18-4-1 SU (13-10 ATS) when playing a non-playoff team from the previous year.

Fading the Super Bowl loser thought always gets tossed out a lot this week (myself included), but those teams are still a part of this massive group that you can basically pencil in for outright wins in Week 1.

With five SU wins coming at the expense of a point spread victory, it's clear some of these playoff teams could be slightly overvalued the following year. And with no preseason to base anything off of bettors, opinions based off last year's production have to be formed.

But at least the past three Week 1's have shown that when you put these playoff teams up against non-playoff foes, the outright win seems to always get there.

The 2019 playoff teams in the AFC were:

Baltimore
Kansas City
New England
Houston
Buffalo
Tennessee

The 2019 playoff teams in the NFC:

San Francisco
Green Bay
New Orleans
Philadelphia
Seattle
Minnesota

Going through the Week 1 schedule brings you to eliminating Houston and Kansas City from this equation with them playing one another on TNF, so not applicable there. The same can be said for the Green Bay-Minnesota game as well on Sunday.

Which leaves outright thoughts on Baltimore (-7.5) over Cleveland, New England (-6.5) over Miami, Buffalo (-6.5) over NY Jets, and Tennessee (-1) over Denver on MNF as options from the AFC side of things.

In the NFC, Seattle (-2) over Atlanta, Philadelphia (-6.5) over Washington, San Francisco (-7) over Arizona, and New Orleans (-3.5) over Tampa Bay fit the above trends.

It's interesting to note that five of those eight games all have point spreads within a point of a full TD, meaning the SU win and ATS loss expectation is fairly reasonable. With it happening five times already in just three seasons (1.66 times per year), guessing at least one of those TD favorites will squeak out a nail-biting victory can go along with that.

Which does put that Arizona/San Francisco game in an interesting light for those that definitely want to fade the Super Bowl loser. Would anybody be surprised by a 49ers win by three or four points in that one?

But an 80% outright win rate to start the year for these playoff teams is tough to ignore even in these odd times. Flipping back and forth between some of these options for Survivor pools might have some easy advancements to next week on the horizon, but remember at the same time, 1.33 times per year one of these teams has lost outright as well.

Unless it's Tennessee or Seattle falling as small road chalk, you find that diamond in the rough this week and go ML shopping, it will be a nice start to the year.

Who's Not

AFC playoff teams from the previous season are 8-1 O/U in Week 1 against any opponent the past two seasons

Horrible trend for 'under' bettors, but a swoon one for 'over' players, and it's a shame that it only applies to two of a potential six games this year – they are both prime time though.

They are the TNF game between Houston and Kansas City, and the MNF game between Tennessee and Denver.

Prime time 'overs' always get a lot of love, so expect even more of it to come on these two games before things go the other way around.

A Houston/KC game needs no hard con to convince someone to look 'over' there already, with the 51-31 game they had in the playoffs back in January, and everybody wants points from Mahomes when they sit down to watch him play. That combined with this run of 'overs' for AFC playoff teams added on top of it, may actually make the 'under' a good look on TNF when you consider how high the number might get, and how sloppy the football might look on the field with minimal practices, no games etc.

Waiting on the MNF game is a lot easier, because by then we'll already have a full Sunday slate digested and assessed just for how sloppy or sharp some play looked. The market will react significantly to those results for the Week 2 lines, but the Titans/Broncos total of 40.5 has only dropped from it's opener of 42.

That's hardly a concern for those looking to ride this 'over' run, because you already know that 42 is going to likely be the peak this total sees. If you are comfortable getting that many points from those two teams on MNF, then this O/U run only helps the cause.

NFL Underdog picks and predictions Week 1
Jason Logan

Tom Brady was bending the rules the second he got to Tampa Bay, giving his team a headstart on its prep for the New Orleans Saints in Week 1. The Bucs are 3.5-point road underdogs in the season opener.

Welcome to NFL Underdogs.

For those who ingest my NFL betting picks each week, you may be wondering, “what’s with the cookie-cutter headline?”

Well, it turns out the old one wasn’t SEO friendly. And while you all were kind enough to come back to the column over the course of the season, there’s a whole world of football bettors who don’t know it exists. But rest assured: this is NFL Underdogs.

Different look. Same great taste.

Now, for those stumbling across our “NFL picks and predictions for Week 1” for the first time (and hopefully that’s a lot of you, if the SEO guys are right), let’s review the rules for the column:

Rule No. 1: I can only pick NFL point spread underdogs.

That is all.

It’s a much simpler rule to follow than the laundry list facing NFL teams and their dos and don’ts for the 2020 season. And if anyone knows about the rules, it’s Tom Brady.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints pick

The ink was barely dry on Brady’s new contract before he started testing the rules.

Brady was allegedly jumping the fences at local parks to work out during the COVID-19 quarantine in April and got his guys on the field as early as May, which drew some sideways glances (but was ultimately cleared by the NFL).

You can take Tom out of New England, but you can’t take New England out of Tom. Could that rule-bending be the edge Tampa Bay needs against the Saints in Week 1?

This offense is so much better than Brady’s depth chart in New England last season and far more stable without Jameis Winston effectively “punting” the ball on almost 5 percent of his pass attempts. It’s a trickle-down effect that will ultimately help the defense, which ranked among the top stop units in 2019 according to the advanced metrics and enters Year 2 under Todd Bowles.

This is one of maybe two times we’ll get Brady and the Bucs as underdogs this season (according to lookahead lines) and that half-point hook is worth it, for what should be an awesome opener.

PREDICTION: Tampa Bay +3.5 (-110)

Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions pick

What’s the difference between Nick Foles and Mitchell Trubisky?

While football is considered a game of inches (hiyo!), paychecks may be the only gap between the Bears’ quarterback options, as far as oddsmakers are concerned.

Foles may be a Super Bowl folk hero but he threw just 117 passes in limited action for Jacksonville in 2019 and those fairy-tale playoff performances happened once upon a time.

When it comes to impact on the spread, the Bears’ QBs are interchangeable at this point. But, for what it’s worth, Trubisky owns a passer rating of 132.56 in three career meetings with Matt Patricia’s Lions, totaling 866 yards (on 68-for-91 passing) with nine touchdowns and just one INT.

Trubisky won’t need to match that output at Detroit in Week 1 — not with the way this Bears defense is shaping up.

In 2019, Chicago overcame injuries to key members of the stop unit and a transition to a new coordinator to rank No. 1 in defensive DVOA at Football Outsiders but lacked a potent pass rush. This season, the Bears get those guys back – and then some – and should flirt with their sack totals from 2018. That’s bad news for Detroit QB Matt Stafford.

PREDICTION: Chicago +3 (-113)

Las Vegas Raiders vs Carolina Panthers pick

“Into the Unknown” is not only the theme song from my time in COVID quarantine (my kids went HAM on Frozen 2), but it could be the slogan for NFL Week 1 betting. Honestly, no one knows what the hell is going to happen.

With shortened camps, limited practices, and no preseason, familiarity is worth its weight in gold in the opening games of the NFL schedule. And while the Panthers have plenty of new faces in 2020, there’s something very familiar with this offense.

Carolina’s combo of QB Teddy Bridgewater and new offensive coordinator Joe Brady won’t take long to gain traction. Brady helped guide the LSU Tigers to the national title with an offensive scheme nipped from the Saints (his former employers), and Bridgewater just so happens to be a former New Orleans quarterback with the two paired up in 2018.

The Panthers have plenty of options on offense with a trio of talented receivers and, of course, Christian McCaffrey. Expect a slow-and-steady approach from Carolina in Week 1, maintaining possession and controlling the tempo, as to not expose a soft defensive unit more than it has to.

The Raiders defense was bad last year and doesn’t look any better, leaning on a lot of young players to grow up quick. This line actually opened pick’em back in the spring, but I’ll gladly take the field goal with the home team.

PREDICTION: Carolina +3 (-110)

NFL Week 1 Injuries, Weather
Patrick Everson

Von Miller suffered an ankle tendon injury in practice Tuesday, and he could require season-ending surgery. The SuperBook moved Titans-Broncos from pick 'em to Tennessee -2.5.

NFL Week 1 odds are often tricky under normal circumstances, never mind those under which we now find ourselves, coming back from a pandemic. Several factors contribute to how and why games are being bet, some of which tend to get overlooked.

Week 1 Injuries

Denver Broncos: Normally, it takes an injury to a starting quarterback, or at least a superstar running back or wide receiver, to move a line 2.5 points. Bettors found out Tuesday night that Broncos stud linebacker Von Miller is worth that much, too. Miller suffered an apparent freak injury to an ankle tendon at the end of Tuesday's practice, and it's possible he's out for the season. Said Eric Osterman, oddsmaker and manager at The SuperBook at Westgate: "We moved the Week 1 line from pick to Titans -2.5." And that's after the line had already moved from Broncos -3 to pick, with much of that shift occuring in the past week, for the second game in a Monday night doubleheader.

Philadelphia Eagles: Oddsmakers are closely watching running back Miles Sanders ( hamstring) and right tackle Lane Johnson (lower-body injury), among others. Sanders is now probable to play, but Johnson remains questionable as of Wednesday afternoon. "The Eagles seem to be a little banged up, which has moved the line a little bit in that game. We are at Eagles -5.5 right now, down from the opening number of -6," said Eric Osterman, manager and oddsmaker at The SuperBook at Westgate. "Those are really the only injury concerns we have right now, besides Von Miller."

Dallas Cowboys: Dallas on Monday put right tackle La’el Collins (hip) and linebacker Sean Lee (sports hernia) on injured reserve, meaning those two are out the next three weeks minimum. However, there was no impact on the line at The SuperBook, with the Cowboys still 3-point road favorites against the Rams.

Cleveland Browns: Center JC Tretter, who had minor surgery for a knee issue in mid-August, returned to practice Monday. The Browns actually closed in a bit Monday, from +8 to +7.5 at The SuperBook for Sunday’s road game against the Ravens.

Philadelphia Eagles: Quarterback Carson Wentz (groin) is apparently now good to go for the season opener at Washington. But oddsmakers never thought otherwise, as the line remained Philadelphia -6 at The SuperBook.

Cincinnati Bengals: Wideout AJ Green (hamstring) is expected to be fully cleared to play Sunday at Cleveland. There was no impact on the line, which remained Bengals +7.5 at The SuperBook.

Find the latest injury news for every game with our NFL Injury Report.

Week 1 Weather

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs: Rain is expected throughout the day Thursday in Kansas City, including a 90 percent chance of evening showers, accompanied by light wind. Over the past few days, the total dropped from 55 to 54, and on Monday, it was at 54.5. The total opened at 56.5 in May.

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills: Rain is expected throughout Sunday morning in Buffalo, with a chance of showers in the afternoon, which could play a role in this 1 p.m. ET start. However, oddsmakers already projected this game to be a less-than-exhilarating offensive display, and the total remained at 39 Monday at The SuperBook, the lowest of all Week 1 games.

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Football Team: There’s a 50 percent chance of rain in D.C., with possible thunderstorms later in the afternoon Sunday, which could impact this 1 p.m. ET kickoff. But the total remained 43 Monday at The SuperBook.

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars: Scattered showers and thunderstorms are predicted, with a 50 percent chance of rain during the day. Kickoff is at 1 p.m. ET. But there’s been no impact on the total, stuck at 45 at The SuperBook.

Las Vegas Raiders at Carolina Panthers: A 50 percent chance of rain/scattered thunderstorms exists in Charlotte for Sunday’s 1 p.m. ET meeting. The total dipped from 47.5 to 46.5 on Monday at The SuperBook.

Los Angeles Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals: The forecast in Cincy calls for mostly cloudy conditions and scattered thunderstorms in the morning, but this matchup doesn’t kick off until 4:05 p.m. ET. Still, the total dropped a point Monday, from 44 to 43.