Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites.
NFL
Week 1
Trend Report
Baltimore vs Kansas City
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Baltimore is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Green Bay vs Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Green Bay's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Green Bay's last 6 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing at home against Green Bay
Tennessee vs Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Tennessee's last 10 games on the road
Tennessee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Chicago is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Chicago is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Carolina vs New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Carolina's last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing Carolina
New Orleans is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Carolina
Pittsburgh vs Atlanta
Pittsburgh is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Pittsburgh is 11-1-1 SU in its last 13 games when playing Atlanta
Atlanta is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games at home
Arizona vs Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Arizona's last 7 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 7 games on the road
Buffalo is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Buffalo's last 7 games when playing Arizona
New England vs Cincinnati
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 6 games
Cincinnati is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games at home
Houston vs Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Houston's last 15 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Houston's last 9 games when playing Indianapolis
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Indianapolis's last 15 games when playing at home against Houston
Jacksonville vs Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Jacksonville's last 9 games when playing Miami
Jacksonville is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Miami's last 9 games when playing Jacksonville
Miami is 19-4 SU in its last 23 games at home
Minnesota vs NY Giants
Minnesota is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing NY Giants
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games
NY Giants is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
NY Giants is 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Las Vegas vs LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Las Vegas's last 8 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers
Las Vegas is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of LA Chargers's last 8 games when playing at home against Las Vegas
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of LA Chargers's last 15 games
Denver vs Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Denver's last 15 games when playing on the road against Seattle
Denver is 13-6 SU in its last 19 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games at home
Dallas vs Cleveland
Dallas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing Cleveland
Cleveland is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Washington vs Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Washington's last 8 games
Washington is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Tampa Bay's last 8 games at home
Tampa Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
LA Rams vs Detroit
LA Rams is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
LA Rams is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Detroit is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
Detroit is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
NY Jets vs San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Jets's last 6 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Jets's last 6 games on the road
San Francisco is 21-4 SU in its last 25 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing NY Jets
NFL
Armadillo's Write-up
Week 1
Thursday’s game
Ravens @ Chiefs (-3)
Last 8 years, Baltimore is 7-1 SU/ATS in Week 1
Since 2015, Ravens are 20-9-2 ATS as a road underdog.
QB Jackson is 60-23 as an NFL starter.
Since 2008, Ravens are 11-5 ATS in their road opener.
Last three years, under is 15-10 in Baltimore’s road games.
Ravens have a first-time defensive coordinator.
Last 7 years, Chiefs are 5-2 ATS in Week 1.
Last four years, under is 21-11-1 in games at Arrowhead.
QB Mahomes is 89-25 as an NFL starter.
Last 3 years, Kansas City is 0-3 ATS in its home opener.
Last 21 years, defending Super Bowl champ is 11-7-3 ATS in Week 1 the next three years, 0-3 the last three years.
Chiefs won five of last six meetings.
Chiefs won 17-10 in Baltimore, in LY’s playoffs.
Ravens are 3-2 in Arrowhead, losing last two visits.
Friday’s game (@ San Paulo, Brazil)
Packers vs Eagles (-2.5)
Green Bay is 19-8 ATS in last 27 games as an underdog.
Last 6 years, Packers are 2-4 ATS in Week 1.
QB Love is 10-10 as an NFL starter.
Green Bay hasn’t opened at home since 2018.
Former Boston College HC Hafley is Green Bay’s new DC.
QB Hurts is 36-20 as an NFL starter.
Eagles have two new coordinators; Kellen Moore is new OC.
Last 8 years, Eagles are 7-1 SU/5-3 ATS in Week 1.
Since 2018, Eagles are 28-39-1 ATS as a favorite.
Last 5 years, over is 3-1-1 in their season opener.
Teams split their last six series games.
Eagles won last meeting 40-33, two years ago.
Sunday’s games
Cardinals @ Bills (-6.5)
Last 5 years, Arizona is 2-2-1 SU/4-1 ATS in Week 1.
Cardinals are 20-11-1 ATS in last 32 games as a road underdog.
QB Murray is 28-37-1 SU as an NFL starter.
Last three years, Arizona is 9-6 ATS vs AFC opponents.
Under is 5-1 in their last six road openers.
Arizona is one of 7 teams with same HC, coordinators as LY.
Last 8 years, Bills are only 4-4 SU in their season opener.
Last 5 years, Buffalo is 4-1 SU/3-2 ATS in its home opener.
Last 3 years, Bills are 12-12-1 ATS as a home favorite.
Since 2019, Buffalo is 14-8-1 ATS vs NFC opponents.
QB Allen is 68-35 as an NFL starter.
Under is 4-1 in their last five season openers.
Bills won six of last eight meetings.
Cardinals lost four of five visits to Buffalo.
Cardinals’ only win here was in first visit, in 1971.
Patriots @ Bengals (-9.5)
Patriots’ first game since 1999 without Belichick as coach.
Last 3 years, New England is 0-3 SU/ATS in Week 1.
Last 4 years, New England is 9-12 ATS as a road underdog.
Last 9 years, Patriots are 6-3 ATS in road openers.
Patriots starting QB Brissett is 18-30 as an NFL starter.
Last 2 years, Bengals are 9-3-2 ATS as a home favorite.
Last 8 years, Bengals are 2-6 SU/ATS in home openers.
Since 2016, Cincinnati is 0-5 ATS as a favorite in a home opener.
QB Burrow is 34-24-1 as an NFL starter.
Cincinnati has new OC this year, though HC Taylor is really the OC.
Check status on star WR Chase, who is in a contract dispute.
New England won seven of last nine series games.
Patriots won four of last six visits to Cincinnati.
Vikings (-1) @ Giants
This is only 2nd time in last 8 years that Vikings are opening on road.
Last 7 years, Minnesota is 0-6-1 SU/0-7 ATS in road openers.
Under is 13-7 in their last 20 road openers.
QB Darnold is 21-35 as an NFL starter.
Under O’Connell, Vikings are 8-8-3 ATS in games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Minnesota is one of 7 teams with same HC, coordinators as LY.
Last 13 years, Giants started season 0-1 eleven times (both wins by one point).
Since 2012, Giants are 2-10 SU/1-11 ATS in home openers.
QB Jones is 23-37-1 as an NFL starter.
Under Daboll, Giants are 5-4-1 ATS in games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Giants’ last ten home openers stayed under the total.
New defensive coordinator for Big Blue this season.
Minnesota won four of last five series games.
Giants won last meeting, 31-24, in ’22 playoffs.
This is Vikings’ first visit to New Jersey since 2019.
Titans @ Bears (-4.5)
Last 7 years, underdog is 7-0 ATS in Titans’ Week 1 games.
Last 11 years, Tennessee is 9-2 SU/8-3 ATS in its road opener.
Since 2018, Titans are 28-16 ATS as a road underdog.
Titans’ last five season openers stayed under the total.
QB Levis is 3-6 as an NFL starter.
Titans have an all-new coaching staff.
Since 2003, QB’s taken with #1 pick in draft are 0-14-1 SU/1-14 ATS in their first start.
Last 10 years, Bears are 2-8 SU/4-6 ATS in Week 1 games.
Last 10 years, Chicago is 0-3 ATS as a Week 1 favorite.
Under Eberflus, Bears are 2-3-1 ATS as a favorite.
Bears have a 3rd-year HC but have two new coordinators TY.
Tennessee won three of last four meetings.
Titans won four of six visits to Chicago
Steelers @ Falcons (-3)
Steelers OC Smith was Atlanta’s head coach the last three years (21-30 W-L)
Since 2017, Pittsburgh is 22-12-1 as a road underdog.
QB Wilson is 124-79-1 as an NFL starter.
Last two years, Steelers were 7-3 ATS vs NFC squads.
Pittsburgh won/covered its last four road openers.
Steelers’ last seven road openers stayed under the total.
Raheem Morris is 21-38 as an NFL head coach.
Last four years, Atlanta is 4-13-1 ATS as a home favorite.
Last two years, Falcons were 3-6-1 ATS vs NFC squads.
New QB Cousins is 77-70-2 as an NFL starter.
Last 7 years, Falcons are 5-2 ATS in their home opener.
This is fifth year in a row Atlanta has opened season at home.
Pittsburgh won last four series games.
Falcons’ last series win was 41-38 in 2006, in OT.
Steelers are 8-2 SU in Atlanta.
Jaguars @ Dolphins (-3)
Jaguars are 19-17 SU under Pederson (15-50 previous four years)
Since 2018, Jaguars are 14-23-2 ATS as a road underdog.
QB Lawrence is 21-31 as an NFL starter.
Last 7 years, Jaguars are 3-4 SU/5-2 ATS in road openers.
Jacksonville’s last four road openers went over the total.
Under Pederson, Jaguars are 8-7 ATS in games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Under McDaniel, Miami is 10-4 ATS as a home favorite.
Since 2013, Dolphins are 8-2 ATS in Week 1 games.
QB Tagovailoa is 32-20 as an NFL starter.
Miami is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 home openers.
Over is 12-3 in their last fifteen home openers.
Under McDaniel, Miami is 4-5 ATS in games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Jacksonville won three of last four series games.
Jaguars won two of three visits to Miami.
Texans (-3) @ Colts
Houston was 10-7 LY, its first winning year since 2019.
Since 2016, Texans are 2-7-2 ATS as a road favorite.
Last 7 years, Texans are 5-2 ATS in road openers.
2nd-year QB Stroud is 10-7 as an NFL starter.
Under is 7-2 in their last nine road openers.
Houston is one of 7 teams with same HC, coordinators as LY.
Last 10 years, Colts are 0-9-1 SU/1-8-1 ATS in Week 1.
Since 2020, Colts are 3-8-1ATS in AFC South home games.
Since 2018, Indy is 5-7 ATS as a home underdog.
2nd-year QB Richardson is 2-2 as an NFL starter.
Colts are one of 7 teams with same HC, coordinators as LY.
Houston is 2-1-1 in last four meetings.
Texans won 32-21/23-19 in last two visits to Indy.
Under is 6-2 in last eight series games.
Underdogs are 8-5 ATS in last 13 meetings.
Panthers @ New Orleans (-4)
Last three years, Carolina is 7-15-1 ATS as road underdog.
2nd year QB Young is 2-14 as an NFL starter.
Last 5 years, Carolina is 1-4 SU/ATS in Week 1 games.
Since 2009, Panthers are 5-10 ATS in road openers.
Last nine years, Carolina is 11-15-1 ATS in NFC South road games.
Last three years, Saints missed playoffs, going 9-8/7-10/9-8
Last three years, New Orleans is 6-8 ATS as a home favorite.
QB Carr is 72-88 as an NFL starter.
Last 10 years, Saints are 4-6 SU/1-9 ATS in Week 1 games.
Last 9 years, New Orleans is 1-8 ATS in home openers.
Last six years, Saints are 8-10 ATS in NFC South home games.
Saints are 7-3 in last ten series games.
Panthers lost seven of last nine visits to New Orleans.
Last six series games stayed under the total.
Underdogs are 8-4 ATS in last dozen meetings.
Raiders @ Chargers (-3)
Raiders won their season opener four of last five years.
QB Minshew is 15-22 as an NFL starter; Raiders are his 4th team.
Since 2019, Las Vegas is 19-11 ATS as a road underdog.
Since 2007, Raiders are 12-4-1 ATS in road openers.
Last five years, Raiders are 9-6 ATS in AFC West road games.
Under is 5-2 in their last seven road openers.
Chargers also won their season opener four of last five years.
Harbaugh was 49-22-1 as 49ers’ coach (2011-14).
Since 2018, Bolts are 11-22-2 ATS as a home favorite.
QB Herbert is 30-33 as an NFL starter.
Last 7 years, Chargers are 2-5 ATS in their home opener.
Last four years, Chargers are 6-5-1 ATS in AFC West home games.
Home team won last six series games.
Raiders won last meeting 63-21 last year.
Raiders lost last three visits to SoFi, by 14-5-7 points.
Broncos @ Seahawks (-5.5)
Rookie QB Nix (61 college starts) makes his first NFL start.
In his career, Payton is 50-34-2 ATS as an underdog.
Last three years, Broncos are 7-10 ATS as a road underdog.
Last 7 years, Denver is 1-6 SU/2-5 ATS in road openers.
Last two years, Denver was 3-7 ATS vs NFC opponents.
Under is 4-2 in their last six road openers.
Last four years, Seahawks are 6-3 ATS as home favorites.
Since 2009, Seattle is 13-2 SU/10-5 ATS in home openers (3-5 ATS last 8).
Seattle is 10-7-2 ATS last 19 games vs AFC opponents.
QB Smith is 30-37 as an NFL starter, 18-18 with Seattle.
Under is 10-3 in their last 13 home openers.
First game as head coach for Mike MacDonald.
Seahawks won three of last four meetings.
Broncos lost last two visits to Seattle, 26-20/17-16.
Cowboys @ Browns (-2.5)
Last ten years, Dallas is 4-6 SU in Week 1 games.
Last four years, Cowboys are 6-10 ATS as a road underdog.
Last two years, Dallas was 4-8 ATS on natural grass.
QB Prescott is 75-46 as an NFL starter.
Last two years, Dallas was 6-4 ATS vs AFC opponents.
Cowboys covered four of their last five road openers.
Cleveland won last 2 season openers (1-21-1 from 1999-2021)
Browns were 11-6 LY, with four different QB’s getting a win.
Cleveland was 8-1 ATS at home LY, 6-0 as a home favorite.
QB Watson is 37-31 as an NFL starter, 8-4 with Browns.
Cleveland is 13-5-1 ATS in last 19 games vs NFC opponents.
Over is 4-1 in Browns’ last four home openers.
Dallas won four of five series games.
Browns won last meeting, 49-38 in 2020.
Cowboys won their last three visits to Cleveland.
Commanders @ Buccaneers (-3.5)
Rookie QB Daniels (55 college starts) makes his first NFL start.
Last eight years, Commanders are 29-23-1 ATS as road underdogs.
Last 5 years, Washington allowed 30+ points in road openers (1-4 SU/2-3 ATS)
Over is 4-1 in those five road openers.
Dan Quinn was 46-44 as coach of the Falcons (2015-20).
Last eight years, Washington has started 8 different QB’s in Week 1.
Under Bowles, Tampa Bay is 3-6-2 ATS as a home favorite.
Last four years, Tampa Bay is 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS in Week 1 games.
QB Mayfield is 42-28 as an NFL starter, 10-9 with Buccaneers.
Over is 3-1 in their last four home openers.
Last two years, under is 10-6 in Tampa Bay home games.
Washington won three of last four series games.
Commanders won last two visits to Tampa; their last loss here was in 2007.
Rams @ Lions (-3.5)
Under McVay, Rams started season 1-0 six of seven years.
Under McVay, Rams are 7-0 SU/5-2 ATS in road openers.
Under McVay, Rams are 11-10-2 ATS as a road underdog.
QB Stafford is 28-18 as Rams’ QB (was 74-93-1 with Detroit).
Over is 4-1 in Rams’ last five road openers.
Under Campbell, Lions are 9-4 ATS as a home favorite.
Last 9 years, Detroit is 2-7 SU/4-5 ATS in home openers.
Over is 6-1 in their last seven home openers.
QB Goff is 26-24-1 as Detroit’s QB (was 44-30 with Rams)
Last six years, Lions are 1-4-1 SU in Week 1 games.
Detroit beat LA 24-23 in LY’s playoffs.
Rams are 3-2 in last five series games.
Rams lost four of last five visits to Detroit.
Rams QB Stafford played for Detroit from 2009-20.
Lions QB Goff played for Rams from 2017-20.
Monday’s game
Jets @ 49ers (-3.5)
QB Rodgers played only 4 plays LY before he tore his achilles.
Rodgers is 159-85-1 as an NFL starter.
Last four years, Jets are 10-18 ATS as road underdogs.
Jets are 5-13-1 ATS in last 19 games vs NFC opponents.
Last 8 years, Jets are 2-6 SU/3-4-1 ATS in Week 1 games.
Over is 6-2 in their last eight road openers.
Jets coach Saleh was DC for 49ers from 2017-20.
Under Shanahan, San Francisco is 18-22-1 ATS as a home favorite.
Last two years, 49ers were 3-7 ATS vs AFC opponents.
QB Purdy is 21-5 as an NFL starter.
Last 7 years, 49ers are 3-4 SU/2-5 ATS in Week 1 games.
Under is 8-2 in their last ten home openers.
49ers are 11-3 in series games.
Jets are 2-4 in road meetings, winning last one 23-17 in OT in last one, in 2016.
NFL
Weather Report
Friday, September 6
System Match: PLAY – INDIANAPOLIS (+3 vs HOU)
WEEK 1 SYSTEM #3: NFL opening week road teams that won between 4-6 games the prior season are 52-21-5 ATS (71.2%) since 2004 (Win: +28.9 units, R.O.I.: 36.6%, Grade 72)
System Matches: PLAY ALL – ARIZONA, NEW ENGLAND, TENNESSEE, WASHINGTON
* Lamar Jackson (BAL) is 11-5 SU and 14-2 ATS (87.5%) as an underdog. The average line was +3.3, Team average PF: 25.3
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (+3 at KC)
* Under total is 19-4 in LVR-LAC series at Chargers since 2001
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total in LVR-LAC (o/u at 40.5)
This week’s #1 UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections: SAN FRANCISCO -4.5 (+3.4 difference)
Under the total SNF Team Trends
Detroit 5-1-1 Under in the last seven
LA Rams 6-1 Under since 2019
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total in LAR-DET (o/u at 50.5)
– Since the start of the 2020 season, rookie starting quarterbacks have taken care of business in the home favorite role, going 26-8 SU and 23-10-1 ATS (69.7%).
System Match: PLAY – CHICAGO (-4 vs. TEN)
NFL Week 1 Systems
These systems were from an article posted just a couple of weeks back on VSiN.com, as well as the NFL Betting Guide:
Week 1 SYSTEM #1: Divisional home underdogs are 18-9-2 SU and 23-6 ATS (79.3%) in Week 1 since 2009 (Win: +16.4 units, ROI: 56.5%, Grade 75)
System Match: PLAY – INDIANAPOLIS (+3 vs. HOU)
Week 1 SYSTEM #2: Home teams priced in the range of +3 to -3 in Week 1 non-conference games have gone just 5-15 SU and 3-16-1 ATS since 2015 (Loss: -14.6 units, ROI: -76.8%, Grade 75)
System Match: FADE -CLEVELAND (-2.5 vs. DAL)
Also watch for ATLANTA vs Houston, CHICAGO vs. Tennessee
Week 1 SYSTEM #3: NFL opening week road teams that won between 4-6 games the prior season are 52-21-5 ATS (71.2%) since 2004 (Win: +28.9 units, ROI: 36.6%, Grade 72)
System Matches: PLAY ALL -ARIZONA, NEW ENGLAND, TENNESSEE, WASHINGTON
Week 1 SYSTEM #4: Divisional road underdogs of 6.5 points or less are on a 17-13 SU and 21-8-1 ATS (72.4%) run since 2013. (Win: +12.2 units, ROI: 42.1%, Grade 70)
System Match: NONE (watch for CAROLINA (at NO) or LAS VEGAS (at LAC))
Week 1 SYSTEM #5 Laying big points is rarely a good idea in a week 1 NFL contest, as underdogs of 6.5 points or more might be just 10-30-1 SU, but they are 27-13-1 ATS (67.5%) in Week 1 since 2013 (Win: +12.7 units, ROI: 31.8%, Grade 65)
System Matches: PLAY ALL –NEW ENGLAND, ARIZONA
Also watch for DENVER at Seattle
Week 1 SYSTEM #6: Opening week home favorites hosting teams that were above .500 the prior season are 48-27-5 ATS (64%) since 2000 (Win: +18.3 units, ROI: 24.4%, Grade 60)
System Matches: PLAY ALL – ATLANTA, CLEVELAND, DETROIT, KANSAS CITY, MIAMI
Week 1 SYSTEM #7: Week 1 favorites playing in a revenge spot from a loss the prior season are just 17-24 SU and 15-26 ATS (36.6%) over the last 12 seasons (Loss: -13.6 units, ROI: -33.2%, Grade 63)
System Match: FADE – LA CHARGERS (-3 vs. LVR)