Wednesday 11/11/20 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for NFL& NCAAF games.
NFL odds Week 10: Opening lines, sharp money & line movement
Patrick Everson
Kyler Murray and the Cardinals beat Seattle in Week 7, had a Week 8 bye, then got upset at home by Miami. The SuperBook opened Arizona -1.5 against Buffalo and quickly moved to -1 Sunday evening.
NFL Week 9 is all but wrapped up, with NFL Week 10 odds on the betting board and already getting some action. Among the noteworthy games, the Buffalo Bills visit the Arizona Cardinals, and the Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams meet in an NFC West clash.
The SuperBook at Westgate's John Murray provided insights on NFL Week 10 opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting. Covers will update this report with NFL sharp picks vs. public bets and line movement throughout the week.
Teams on bye: Kansas City Chiefs, Atlanta Falcons, Dallas Cowboys, New York Jets
Colts at Titans Odds
Opening line
Titans -2, Over/Under TBA
Why the line moved
Tennessee looks to put a little daylight between itself and Indianapolis in this AFC South clash Thursday night. The SuperBook opened the Titans -2 and got to -2.5 in short order.
"Philip Rivers was awful today, but we don't want to overreact too much," Murray said Sunday night, alluding to the Colts QB's lousy performance in a 24-10 home loss to Baltimore. "The Colts really should've been up by more at halftime in that game, and we still trust their defense. I'll never understand what the officials saw on that Marcus Peters interception. That was a real turning point in the game."
Bengals at Steelers Odds
Opening line
Steelers -9.5, Over/Under TBA
Why the line moved
Pittsburgh overcame a couple of scares Sunday, one from Dallas and one from star QB Ben Roethlisberger's knee, to get a 24-19 victory over the upstart and undermanned Cowboys. So the Steelers remain the league's only unbeaten team, at 8-0 SU (6-2 ATS). The SuperBook opened Pittsburgh -9.5 and stuck there through Sunday night. Cincinnati is coming off its bye week.
Washington at Lions Odds
Opening line
OFF, Over/Under OFF
Why the line moved
Detroit QB Matthew Stafford was in concussion protocol after Sunday's 34-20 loss at Minnesota, prompting The SuperBook to keep this game off the board until there's more clarity on the situation. Washington has its own QB issues after Kyle Allen suffered a dislocated ankle in Sunday's 23-20 loss to the New York Giants, putting Alex Smith back under center.
Texans at Browns Odds
Opening line
Browns -1.5, Over/Under TBA
Why the line moved
Houston eked out a win at Jacksonville in Week 9, while Cleveland had a bye. The SuperBook opened the Browns -1.5 and moved to -2.5 within an hour.
"The Browns have to win games like this if they want to make the playoffs," Murray said. "Baker Mayfield went into COVID protocol today. That's something to monitor, but we expect him to play Sunday. We think Houston is much better than their 2-6 record, and this line shows it."
Jaguars at Packers Odds
Opening line
Packers -13.5, Over/Under TBA
Why the line moved
Green Bay is on a mini-bye, having played and rolled in the Week 9 Thursday nighter, a 34-17 victory at San Francisco. Jacksonville, meanwhile, fell just short at home to Houston, 27-25. The Packers opened -13.5 at The SuperBook, and the line was stable Sunday night.
Eagles at Giants Odds
Opening line
Giants +3, Over/Under TBA
Why the line moved
New York held on for a 23-20 win at Washington on Sunday, while Philadelphia had a Week 9 bye in the dreadful NFC East. The Eagles opened as 3-point road favorites at The SuperBook, and there was no line movement Sunday.
Buccaneers at Panthers Odds
Opening line
Panthers +4.5, Over/Under TBA
Why the line moved
Tampa Bay got smacked by New Orleans 38-3 in the Sunday nighter. Meanwhile, Carolina gave defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City all it could handle, though the Panthers fell just short 33-31. The SuperBook opened the Bucs -4.5, and per standard operating procedure, pulled this game off the board during the Saints-Bucs contest. The game will go back up Monday morning, perhaps at a slightly lower number after Tampa's dismal performance.
Broncos at Raiders Odds
Opening line
Raiders -4, Over/Under TBA
Why the line moved
Las Vegas held on for a 31-26 win at the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday, while Denver lost to Atlanta 34-27. This line stuck at Raiders -4 through Sunday night at The SuperBook.
Bills at Cardinals Odds
Opening line
Cardinals -1.5, Over/Under TBA
Why the line moved
Buffalo got a statement win over Seattle on Sunday, 44-34 at home. Arizona was dealt a surprising 34-31 home loss by Tua Tagovailoa and Miami. So it was no surprise that the first move on this line was toward the Bills.
"We moved quickly to -1," Murray said. "This is a very interesting game. The Cardinals are off a loss, and the Bills are coming off their best win of the season and the best game of Josh Allen's career. It's very much a toss-up game, and the line shows it. There should be good two-way write."
Seahawks at Rams Odds
Opening line
Rams -1.5, Over/Under TBA
Why the line moved
While Seattle suffered the aforementioned loss at Buffalo, Los Angeles was on a bye week. The Rams are short home favorites in this NFC West clash.
"We opened Rams -1.5 and are now -2," Murray said. "The Seahawks' defense stinks, and today, Russell Wilson finally into a game (in which) he couldn't bail out the defense. I don't trust that Seattle D at all, but I also don't trust Jared Goff. I do think the public will trust Russ to bounce back here."
49ers at Saints Odds
Opening line
Saints -6.5, Over/Under TBA
Why the line moved
New Orleans boatraced Tampa Bay 38-3 under the prime-time lights Sunday night. San Francisco had no such luck in the Thursday nighter, with its depleted squad falling to Green Bay 34-17. The defending NFC champion Niners will still be minus QB Jimmy Garoppolo (ankle) and tight end George Kittle (foot) for a few weeks, and they've got a host of other injuries. The SuperBook opened the Saints -6.5, and the game came off the board once New Orleans kicked off at Tampa.
"That line will go up after tonight," Murray assured. "The 49ers have a ton of guys out, and the Saints will be a hot team after what they did to Brady and the Bucs. The Saints will be in just about every moneyline parlay and teaser next week. We will be 49ers fans again next weekend."
Ravens at Pats Odds
Opening line
Patriots +7, Over/Under TBA
Why the line moved
This would normally be a matchup of top-shelf teams working their way into playoff form, under the Sunday night lights. However, New England is just 2-5 SU heading into the Week 9 Monday nighter at the New York Jets. Baltimore, meanwhile, is 6-2 SU and coming off a solid win at Indianapolis.
"The Ravens opened -7, and we moved quickly to -6.5. This is a funny line to see when the Ravens are at New England," Murray said. "I'm very curious to watch Lamar Jackson go against Bill Belichick. It seems like a lot of defensive coaches have learned and made adjustments against Jackson. And nobody is better at game-planning than Belichick. I wouldn't count him out just yet.
"I'm sure we will need New England huge, given the top slot on Sunday night, so you'll probably see this line at 7 again."
Vikings at Bears Odds
Opening line
Bears +2.5, Over/Under TBA
Why the line moved
Three weeks ago, Chicago was 5-1 SU and seemingly in good form. Now the Bears are 5-4 SU and on a three-game skid, while Minnesota won its last two, a road upset of Green Bay and Sunday's 34-20 home win over Detroit. So even though Minnesota is just 3-5 SU and Chicago is at home, the Bears are catching 2.5 points at The SuperBook for the Week 10 Monday night tilt.
"We just looked at who we think people will be looking to bet, after what they've seen the last two weeks," Murray said. There was no disagreement with the line Sunday night, as it did not move.
Chargers at Dolphins Odds
Opening line
Dolphins -1, Over/Under TBA
Why the line moved
Tua Tagovailoa and Miami got a surprising 34-31 victory at Arizona on Sunday, while Los Angeles took another kick in the gut in a one-score game, losing to Las Vegas 31-26. The SuperBook opened the Dolphins -1 and moved to -2.5 within an hour Sunday night, with Murray saying that was more a move with the market.
NFL betting tips for Week 10: Bet Now or Bet Later
Jason Logan
The Titans opened as 2.5-point home favorites versus the Colts on Thursday Night Football in Week 10 and won't be under the key number of a field goal long.
You know you’re into the nitty gritty of the NFL betting schedule when you hit double figures. And here we are, at Week 10.
This is the time of the year when teams start scoreboard watching, with a close eye fixed on the standings and their potential playoff hopes. But for NFL bettors, we’re always focused on the spreads and totals and how they shift from Sunday night to Sunday afternoon.
The most lucrative NFL betting strategy remains getting the best of the number, and we share our NFL betting tips on the lines to bet now and ones to bet later. Good luck.
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (-2.5): Bet Now
Don’t get caught on your back like a turtle – or Philip Rivers – when it comes to the spread for Thursday Night Football. Tennessee opened -2.5 for this mid-week primetime contest and will likely move to -3 quite quickly.
The Titans out-muscled Chicago in Week 9, winning 24-17 and just holding off the Bears enough to cover the 6.5-points at home (Chicago scored 17 points in the fourth quarter). It wasn’t a pretty win, but it snapped a two-game slide for Tennessee and the Titans get to stay home for this short week.
The Colts, on the other hand, couldn’t keep pace with Baltimore for four quarters. After battling the Ravens to a 10-7 lead at the half, Indianapolis caved like the rotting Jack-o-Lantern on your neighbor’s porch, getting outscored 17-0 in the final 30 minutes. It marked the third time in the past four games that the Colts failed to cover the spread.
If you’re all about that Honky Tonk in Nashville Thursday night, take the Titans -2.5 now.
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-9.5): Bet Later
This line is actually moving away from the undefeated Steelers after opening as high as -10 for this AFC North rivalry. A near loss to the Cowboys (and whoever their QB was) as 14-point chalk will do that.
Pittsburgh didn’t look great in that 24-19 squeaker, but it was the team’s third straight road game and a textbook letdown spot after the win over Baltimore in Week 8. The Steelers are back in Heinz Field for the first time in almost a month, but Ben Roethlisberger’s tender knee could make him a no-show for practice and keep this spread under the key number of -10 (although he told the media he was fine).
The Bengals also bring a lot of heat into this match. Cincinnati enjoyed a bye in Week 9 and was last seen upsetting the Titans in Week 8. Joe Burrow is blossoming under center and taking Bengals backers along for the ride, with Cincy sitting 6-2 against the spread.
Given all that, shops have jumped from Steelers -10 to -9.5 and are dealing extra vig on the underdog Bengals +9.5 (-115). That could mean a drop to Pittsburgh -9. For those who always carry an extra Terrible Towel in the glovebox, wait it out and see how low the Steelers will go.
Los Angeles Chargers at Miami Dolphins (Over 50): Bet Now
It’s a showdown between rookie quarterbacks, with Justin Herbert and the Bolts visiting Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins. The Over/Under opened as low as 49.5 and has crept to 50 points with early money siding with a shootout in South Beach.
Herbert and the Chargers were oh-so-close to a Week 9 win but this total is more about the L.A. defense – or lack thereof – which has allowed each of its last five opponents to break the 30-point plateau on the scoreboard, topping the total in all five of those contests since Week 4.
Miami’s offensive attack hasn’t slowed much since Tua usurped the starting gig from Ryan Fitzpatrick, including getting 27 points in the 34-31 win over Arizona on Sunday (the Dolphins opened the game with a scoop-and-score). The Miami defense is a dangerous crew and very disruptive but has given up big scores against quality opponents.
The bad weather in Florida is supposed to pass by the weekend, so if you’re lining up for these Young Guns like Emilio Estevez, Kiefer Sutherland, Lou Diamond Phillips, Charlie Sheen, and Dermot Mulroney (I mean, what a cast!), get down on the Over 50 now.
Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders (Over 50.5): Bet Later
This AFC West showdown in Sin City opened with a total as high as 51 points but is trickling down with action on the Under out of the gate. And who could blame them? The Broncos and Raiders have played Under in seven straight head-to-head matchups, going back to 2017. Contrarian bettors: ACTIVATE!
The Raiders are an Over bettors wet dream, with an offense putting up 27 points per game and a defense giving up one point more. The Silver and Black have kept Over backers in the black, with a 6-1-1 O/U mark heading into Week 10.
The Broncos have started to show some teeth on offense in recent games. Denver has posted scores of 27 and 31 points in the past two weeks and it looks like Drew Lock is settling in since returning from injury. The Broncos defense, however, is slipping with a total of 107 points allowed in the past three games.
If you’re bucking this divisional totals trend, crack a Coors and wait to see how low the number will go before buying up the Over.
Tech Trends - Week 10
Bruce Marshall
Week 10 of the NFL season kicks off on Thursday, Nov. 12 and we've identified betting trends and angles for all 14 matchups.
We also have "Tech Edge" leans on the side or total for each game too.
Thursday, Nov. 12
INDIANAPOLIS at TENNESSEE
Colts 2-4 last six vs. line away (2-2 in 2020).
Titans on 16-5 “over” run since Ryan Tannehill took over as starting QB in mid-2019.
Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.
Sunday, Nov. 15
CINCINNATI at PITTSBURGH
The Joe Burrow led Bengals are a solid 6-1-1 vs. line this season.
Cincy is 5-1-1 as underdog too.
Pitt, however, is 6-2 vs. line (and 8-0 SU).
Steelers lean “over” 18-9-1 last 28 with Big Ben at QB (excludes almost all of 2019)
Though “unders” are 6-1-1 last 8 in series.
Tech Edge: Slight to Bengals and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.
WASHINGTON at DETROIT
Wash 0-2-1 vs. line away this season
If Lions chalk note their 1-4 mark last five for head coach Matt Patricia.
Detroit “over” 9-1 last ten at Ford Field.
Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.
HOUSTON at CLEVELAND
Rough go for Texans, 1-7 SU and vs. line in 2020
4-12-1 vs. spread since mid-2019 for Houston
Coach Romeo 2-2 SU and 1-3 vs. line.
Houston also no covers last 7 as an underdog.
Browns on 3-8 spread skid since late 2019 (a bit better 3-5 this season)
Cleveland “over” 5-2 last seven as host.
Tech Edge: Slight to Browns and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.
JACKSONVILLE at GREEN BAY
Jags had dropped five in a row vs. number and four straight as dog prior to late cover last week vs. Texans.
Jacksonville still only 5-11 last 16 on board vs. line.
Pack 6-2 SU and vs. spread after Niners win.
For what it’s worth only 1-4 as DD chalk since 2015.
Tech Edge: Packers, based on recent trends.
PHILADELPHIA at NY GIANTS
G-Men rather remarkably 5-0-1 vs. line last six.
And 6-1-1 vs. spread last eight in 2020.
Despite only 2-7 SU mark entering this matchup.
Birds are 1-4 last five as favorites.
Road team has covered last five in series and six of last seven meetings.
Tech Edge: Giants, based on recent trends.
TAMPA BAY at CAROLINA
Road team 7-2 vs. line in Panthers games this season.
Carolina 1-3 vs. line at home in 2020
Panthers are 1-6-1 vs. spread last 8 as host.
Bucs 2-2 as road chalk this year.
Even with SNF "under" vs. Saints, now 17-8 “over” for Arians since LY.
Arians teams “over” 32-16 since mid 2016 with Cards.
Tech Edge: Bucs and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.
DENVER at LAS VEGAS
Raiders have covered last five in series, also four straight as series host.
The “unders” have cashed last seven meetings.
Though Vegas “over” 6-1-1 in 2020, and Broncos “over” last three.
Broncos' coach Vic Fangio 5-3 as 'dog this season, 10-5 last 15 in role.
Tech Edge: “Under” and Slight to Raiders, based on “totals” and series trends.
BUFFALO at ARIZONA
Bills broke 4-game spread losing streak with win over Seahawks last week.
Cards meanwhile 5-3 vs. spread in 2020.
Coach Kliff Kingsbury now 15-8-1 vs. line with Cards since last year, even after Week 9 loss.
Big Red Cards also on 8-4-1 “under” run.
Tech Edge: Cards and Slight to “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.
SEATTLE at L.A. RAMS
Rams covered both last year and have won 4 of last 5 SU in series.
LA 2-4 last six vs. line in 2020, also “under” five straight.
Seahawks 8-5-1 vs. points last 14 away.
Tech Edge: Slight to Seahawks and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.
SAN FRANCISCO at NEW ORLEANS
Hurtin’ Niners have now dropped last two SU and vs. line after GB loss.
But SF is 3-1 vs. line as visitor in 2020, 9-3 vs. spread as visitor since 2019.
That record for 49ers, includes wild 48-46 win at Superdome last Dec. 8.
Though a winner vs. Bucs on SNF, Saints no covers 5 of last 7, and also 2-7 last 9 vs. spread at Superdome.
New Orleans “over” 7-1 this season.
Tech Edge: Niners and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.
BALTIMORE at NEW ENGLAND
Ravens have cooled a bit vs. line, only 2-3-1 last six in 2020 after 9-1 previous 10 vs. spread in regular season.
Though did handle Indy last week.
After Monday vs. Jets, Belichick 3-5 SU and vs. line this year.
Pats are 1-2 as 'dog but could easily have covered the games at Seattle and Kansas City.
This comes after 13-3 spread mark for NE as a 'dog since 2010 entering this season.
Tech Edge: Slight to Patriots, based on Belichick extended dog marks.
L.A. CHARGERS at MIAMI
Miami has won and covered last 4 in 2020 and 6-1 last seven vs. line.
Going back to early 2019, Miami 15-5 ATS last 20 on board.
Note hard-luck Chargers on 5-0 “over” run, and 9-4 “over” last 13 since late 2019.
Tech Edge: Dolphins and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.
Monday, Nov. 16
MINNESOTA at CHICAGO
Vikings have covered 5 of last 6 this season despite 3-5 SU mark.
Minnesota has covered last four games as a underdog.
Bears have lost last three games, all non-divisional matchups.
Tech Edge: Vikings and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.
NFL
Long Sheet
Week 10
Thursday, November 12
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INDIANAPOLIS (5 - 3) at TENNESSEE (6 - 2) - 11/12/2020, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 127-163 ATS (-52.3 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 3-1 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 3-1 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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Sunday, November 15
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CINCINNATI (2 - 5 - 1) at PITTSBURGH (8 - 0) - 11/15/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 112-81 ATS (+22.9 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 99-72 ATS (+19.8 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
CINCINNATI is 33-16 ATS (+15.4 Units) in road games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 2-1 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 4-0 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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WASHINGTON (2 - 6) at DETROIT (3 - 5) - 11/15/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 31-54 ATS (-28.4 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
DETROIT is 66-91 ATS (-34.1 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
DETROIT is 150-190 ATS (-59.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
DETROIT is 46-69 ATS (-29.9 Units) in November games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 1-0 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 1-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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HOUSTON (2 - 6) at CLEVELAND (5 - 3) - 11/15/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in all games this season.
HOUSTON is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
HOUSTON is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 1-0 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 1-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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JACKSONVILLE (1 - 7) at GREEN BAY (6 - 2) - 11/15/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 203-148 ATS (+40.2 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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PHILADELPHIA (3 - 4 - 1) at NY GIANTS (2 - 7) - 11/15/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) as a home underdog of 3 points or less since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 42-66 ATS (-30.6 Units) in November games since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 39-61 ATS (-28.1 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 3-2 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 5-0 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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TAMPA BAY (6 - 3) at CAROLINA (3 - 6) - 11/15/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 126-95 ATS (+21.5 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
CAROLINA is 72-49 ATS (+18.1 Units) revenging a loss against opponent since 1992.
TAMPA BAY is 66-45 ATS (+16.5 Units) in November games since 1992.
CAROLINA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 3-2 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 3-2 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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DENVER (3 - 5) at LAS VEGAS (5 - 3) - 11/15/2020, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LAS VEGAS is 84-114 ATS (-41.4 Units) in home games since 1992.
LAS VEGAS is 84-114 ATS (-41.4 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
LAS VEGAS is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
LAS VEGAS is 31-51 ATS (-25.1 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.
LAS VEGAS is 44-85 ATS (-49.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
LAS VEGAS is 26-47 ATS (-25.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
LAS VEGAS is 4-0 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
LAS VEGAS is 2-2 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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BUFFALO (7 - 2) at ARIZONA (5 - 3) - 11/15/2020, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
ARIZONA is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
BUFFALO is 23-9 ATS (+13.1 Units) against NFC West division opponents since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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SEATTLE (6 - 2) at LA RAMS (5 - 3) - 11/15/2020, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS are 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 73-48 ATS (+20.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
SEATTLE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 3 seasons.
LA RAMS are 74-105 ATS (-41.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
LA RAMS is 2-2 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
LA RAMS is 3-1 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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SAN FRANCISCO (4 - 5) at NEW ORLEANS (6 - 2) - 11/15/2020, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 31-51 ATS (-25.1 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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BALTIMORE (6 - 2) at NEW ENGLAND (2 - 5) - 11/15/2020, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 45-25 ATS (+17.5 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 273-212 ATS (+39.8 Units) in all games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 273-212 ATS (+39.8 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 89-51 ATS (+32.9 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 97-68 ATS (+22.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 210-155 ATS (+39.5 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 133-93 ATS (+30.7 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 130-94 ATS (+26.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
BALTIMORE is 35-17 ATS (+16.3 Units) against AFC East division opponents since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 1-0 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 1-0 straight up against NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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LA CHARGERS (2 - 6) at MIAMI (5 - 3) - 11/15/2020, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 43-19 ATS (+22.1 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.
LA CHARGERS are 131-97 ATS (+24.3 Units) in road games since 1992.
LA CHARGERS are 131-97 ATS (+24.3 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
LA CHARGERS are 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
LA CHARGERS are 104-76 ATS (+20.4 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
LA CHARGERS are 38-21 ATS (+14.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
LA CHARGERS are 32-17 ATS (+13.3 Units) in road games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
LA CHARGERS is 1-0 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
LA CHARGERS is 1-0 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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Monday, November 16
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MINNESOTA (3 - 5) at CHICAGO (5 - 4) - 11/16/2020, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 41-24 ATS (+14.6 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
CHICAGO is 57-85 ATS (-36.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 3-1 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 4-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 10
Colts (5-3) @ Tennessee (6-2)
— Colts split their last four games, after a 3-1 start.
— Indy split its four road games this year.
— Colts are 4-0 when they score 28+ points, 1-3 if they score 23 or fewer points.
— Indy is 10-12-1 ATS in last 23 games as a road underdog, 0-1 TY.
— Colt opponents converted 23 of last 47 third down plays.
— Five of eight Tennessee games were decided by 3 or fewer points, or in OT
— Titans split their last four games, after a 4-0 start.
— Tennessee won four of five home games, winning by 3-26-6(ot)-7 points.
— Over is 3-1-1 in Titans’ home games this season.
— Titans are 5-7-1 ATS in last 13 games as a home favorite.
— Teams split last six series games, after Colts had won 16 of previous 17 meetings.
— Indy won 33-17/19-17 in its last two visits to Nashville.
Bengals (2-5-1) @ Pittsburgh (8-0)
— Bengals lost three of last four games, but covered last three.
— Cincinnati is 6-1-1 ATS overall this season.
— Bengals are 0-3-1 SU on the road, losing by 5-24-4 points.
— Cincy is 13-6 ATS in last 19 games as a road underdog.
— Bengals are 1-5 ATS in last six post-bye games.
— Roethlisberger (COVID list) won’t practice this week, may not play.
— Rudolph (5-3 as a starter) would likely get the nod if Big Ben sits out.
— Steelers won first eight games (6-2 ATS), scoring 29.4 ppg.
— Steelers are 3-1 ATS as a home favorite this year, winning by 5-7-9-31 points.
— Pittsburgh won its last three games, by 3-4-5 points.
— Pittsburgh won last ten series games, four of last five by 7 or fewer points.
— Bengals lost last four visits to Steel City, by 8-15-3-24 points.
Washington (2-6) @ Detroit (3-5)
— Washington is starting its third QB (Alex Smith) in nine games this year.
— Smith is 94-66-1 as an NFL starter; he threw for 325 yards in LW’s 23-20 loss.
— Washington lost six of its last seven games, losing twice to the Giants by total of 4 points.
— Washington is 0-3 SU on road, losing by 1-14-15 points.
— Last 4+ years, Washington is 16-12-1 ATS as a road underdog, 1-2 TY.
— Under is 3-0-1 in last four Washington games.
— Detroit lost its last two games, giving up 41-34 points.
— Lions allowed 27+ points in their five losses; 23-16-22 in their wins.
— Detroit is +5 in turnovers in its wins, minus-7 in its losses.
— Lions are 2-4 ATS in last six games as a home favorite.
— Detroit was outrushed 394-158 in its last two games.
— All three Lion home games went over the total.
— Lions lost 16-14 at Washington LY, their first loss in last five series games.
Texans (2-6) @ Cleveland (5-3)
— Texans split their last two games; both wins were vs Jacksonville.
— Houston allowed 28+ points in all their losses- they allowed 14-25 points in wins.
— Texans are 1-3 SU on the road, giving up 32.3 ppg.
— Over is 3-0-1 in Houston’s road games this season.
— Texans are 0-3 ATS as a road underdog this year.
— Browns scored 6-7-6 points in their losses, averaged 37.2 ppg in wins
— Browns were outscored in second half in six of their eight games.
— Cleveland is 5-4-1 ATS in its last ten games as a home favorite.
— Five of their last seven games went over the total.
— Cleveland is 2-5 ATS in its last seven post-bye games.
— Houston won last five series games, all by 10+ points.
— Texans won 16-6/23-7 in their last two visits to Cleveland.
Jaguars (1-7) @ Green Bay (5-2)
— 6th-round rookie QB Jake Luton (Oregon State) gets his 2nd start; he threw for 304 yards in last week’s 27-25 loss.
— Jaguars lost last seven games, are 1-5 ATS in last six.
— Jacksonville gave up 32.3 ppg in their last six games.
— Jaguars are 5-11-1 ATS in last 17 games as a road underdog.
— AFC South underdogs are 2-7 ATS outside the division.
— Green Bay split its last four games, after a 4-0 start.
— Packers scored 30+ points in their wins; 10-22 points in losses.
— Green Bay converted 48-97 third down plays (49.5%)
— Packers are 8-4 ATS in last 12 games as a home favorite.
— Four of last five Green Bay games stayed under the total.
— Green Bay won four of six series games.
— Jaguars split two visits here, with last one in 2012.
Philadelphia (3-4-1) @ NJ Giants (2-7)
— This is Philly’s first road game since October 11.
— Eagles are 3-0 if they allow 21 or fewer points, 0-4-1 if they allow more than 21.
— Underdogs covered six of their eight games this season.
— Eagles are 7-9 ATS in last 16 games as a road favorite.
— Last four games, Philly allowed 152.8 rushing yards/game.
— Eagles are 2-6 ATS in last eight post-bye games.
— Four of last six Philly games stayed under the total.
— Giants are 2-0 SU vs Washington, 0-7 vs everyone else.
— Giants covered five of their last six games.
— Giants’ last five games were decided by total of 10 points.
— Big Blue lost three of four home games, losing by 10-27-2 points.
— Giants are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games as a home underdog.
— NFL-wide, divisional home underdogs are 12-2 ATS.
— Giants (+5) lost 22-21 in Philly three weeks ago, despite running ball for 160 yards.
— Eagles won last seven series games.
— Eagles won last three visits here, by 5-21-17 points.
— Philly scored 34+ points in six of last seven visits here.
Tampa Bay (6-3) @ Carolina (3-6)
— Tampa Bay won six of its last eight games, but lost 38-3 LW
— Bucs are 3-2 SU on road, winning by 18-25-2 points.
— Last 4+ years, Tampa Bay is 5-3 ATS as a road favorite, 2-2 TY.
— Last two games, Bucs were outscored 45-6 in first half.
— Last week, Tampa ran ball five times the whole game, for 8 yards.
— Carolina lost its last four games, giving up 27 ppg.
— Panthers lost three of their four home games SU this year.
— Carolina covered five of its last seven games overall.
— Panthers are 1-3-1 ATS in last five games as a home underdog.
— Carolina is 0-6 when they allow 23+ points, 3-0 when they allow 21 or fewer.
— Panthers (+8.5) lost 31-17 at Tampa in Week 2; they turned ball over four times.
— Carolina won 10 of last 15 series games; teams split last four meetings here.
Broncos (3-5) @ Las Vegas (5-3)
— Denver won three of last five games, after an 0-3 start.
— Broncos gave up 26+ points in six of their last seven games.
— Denver covered three of its four road games this year.
— Broncos are 7-4 ATS in last 11 games as a road underdog.
— Four of their last five games went over the total.
— Raiders scored 31+ points in four of five wins; 20-23-20 in their losses.
— Las Vegas allowed 400+ TY in five of its last seven games.
— Raiders converted 13 of last 24 third down plays.
— Seven of eight Raider games went over the total.
— Raiders are 4-5 ATS in last nine games as a home favorite.
— Las Vegas is 2-0 ATS as a favorite TY; both those games were on road.
— Home side won last eight series games.
— Broncos lost their last four visits to Oakland, by 10-6-13-8 points.
Buffalo (7-2) @ Arizona (5-3)
— Buffalo won its last three games, scoring 28.7 ppg.
— Bills won three of four road games, scoring 23.8 ppg (29.4 ppg at home)
— Bills scored 24+ points in six of their seven wins; 16-17 in their losses.
— Buffalo is 4-2-1 ATS in last seven games as a road underdog, 0-0 TY.
— Seven of their nine games went over the total.
— Arizona scored 30+ points in last four games, winning three of them.
— Cardinals split four home games TY; their last three home games were all decided by 3 points.
— Redbirds are 5-11 ATS in last 16 games as a home favorite, 1-2 TY.
— Cardinals are running ball for 162.9 yards/game this season.
— Arizona trailed at halftime in five of its eight games.
— Buffalo won five of last six series games.
— Bills won two of three visits here, winning 19-16 in OT in last visit, in ’12.
Seahawks (6-2) @ Rams (5-3)
— Seattle lost two of last three games, after a 5-0 start.
— Seahawks have scored 36 TD’s on 85 drives this season.
— Seattle is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 games as a road underdog.
— Seahawks scored 31+ points in seven of eight games; they scored 34 in both their losses.
— Seven of their eight games went over the total.
— Seahawks allowed 415 TY in seven of their eight games.
— Rams lost two of last three games, after a 4-1 start.
— LA has outscored opponents 100-32 in second half of games.
— Rams won all three home games, giving up 17-9-10 points.
— LA’s last five games stayed under the total.
— Under McVay, Rams are 12-10-1 ATS as a home favorite, 1-1 TY.
— LA is 9-2-1 ATS in its last dozen post-bye games.
— Rams won four of last five series games.
— Seattle lost 36-31/28-12 in their last two games in the Coliseum.
49ers (4-5) @ New Orleans (6-2)
— Mullens gets another start at QB, replacing injured Garoppolo (ankle).
— 49ers allowed 16 or fewer points in their wins, 24-25-43-37-34 in their losses.
— 49ers won three of their four road games SU.
— Over is 5-3 in their last eight games.
— 49ers are 13-9 ATS in last 22 games as a road underdog.
— New Orleans won its last five games, by 6-3-3-3-35 points.
— Saints allowed 23-29-27-24-23-3 points in their wins, 34-37 in losses.
— New Orleans won three of four home games, winning by 11-3-3 points.
— Saints are 7-14 ATS in their last 21 games as a home favorite.
— Seven of their eight games went over the total.
— 49ers won four of last six series games; average total in last three was 69.7.
— 49ers won three of last four visits to Bourbon Street; they won 48-46 here LY.
LA Chargers (2-6) @ Miami (5-3)
— Since Week 2 of last year, Chargers are 2-15 in games decided by 8 or fewer points.
— Bolts lost six of last seven games, with five losses by 5 or fewer points.
— Last five Charger games went over the total.
— Chargers are 9-7-2 ATS in last 18 games as a road underdog, 1-0-1 TY.
— In last four games, LA scored 15 TD’s on 47 drives; the rookie QB is good.
— Last two games, LA was outscored 45-25 in the second half.
— Dolphins won/covered their last four games, scoring 32.3 ppg.
— Dolphins scored 20+ points in first half of all four of those games.
— Miami was outgained 913-457 in its last two games.
— Dolphins allowed 17 or fewer points in four of five wins; 21-31-31 in losses.
— Miami split its four home games, winning last two, by 24-11 points.
— Dolphins are 6-1-1 ATS in last eight games as a home favorite.
— Dolphins won four of last six series games.
— Chargers won 30-10 in Miami LY, ending an 8-game skid in south Florida- their last win before than was in the 1981 playoffs.
Ravens (6-2) @ New England (3-5)
— Ravens allowed 17 or fewer points in five of six wins, 34-28 in losses.
— Baltimore is 4-0 SU on the road, winning by 17-14-2-14 points.
— Under is 5-3 in Baltimore games this season.
— Baltimore opponents converted only 11 of last 49 third down plays.
— Ravens are 7-1-1 ATS in last nine games as a road favorite.
— New England lost three of its last four games; they were outscored 62-22 in first half.
— Patriots allowed 28 ppg in their last three games.
— New England trailed at halftime in its last five games.
— Last 12+ years, Patriots are 4-0 ATS as a home underdog.
— Three of their last four home games stayed under the total.
— Patriots are 6-4 in last ten series games.
— Average total in last four series games: 54.3.
— Ravens lost four of last five visits here, but haven’t been in Foxboro since 2016.
Vikings (3-5) @ Chicago (5-4)
— Vikings are 2-0 since their bye, running ball for 173-275 yards.
— Minnesota covered five of its last six games.
— Vikings allowed 27+ points in all five of their losses; they allowed 23-22-20 in wins.
— Minnesota has 12 turnovers (-8) in its losses, zero in its wins (+5).
— Vikings are 5-2 ATS in last seven games as a road favorite (0-0 TY).
— Minnesota split its four road games SU this season.
— Bears lost their last three games, after a 5-1 start.
— Chicago has three wins by 4 points each, another win by one point.
— Bears are 13-3-1 ATS in last 17 games as a home underdog, 2-1 TY.
— Chicago split its four home games SU this season.
— Five of their last seven games stayed under the total.
— Bears won last four series games.
— Vikings lost 25-20/16-6 in their last two visits to Chicago.
— Minnesota scored 11.7 ppg in last three series games.
NFL
Week 10
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Trend Report
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Thursday, November 12
Indianapolis @ Tennessee
Indianapolis
Indianapolis is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
Indianapolis is 19-4 SU in its last 23 games when playing Tennessee
Tennessee
Tennessee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
Sunday, November 15
Jacksonville @ Green Bay
Jacksonville
Jacksonville is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Jacksonville's last 9 games
Green Bay
Green Bay is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
Green Bay is 12-3 SU in its last 15 games
Washington @ Detroit
Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing Detroit
Washington is 17-6 SU in its last 23 games when playing Detroit
Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Detroit's last 10 games at home
Detroit is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Washington
Houston @ Cleveland
Houston
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games on the road
Houston is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Cleveland's last 9 games when playing Houston
Cleveland is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games at home
Philadelphia @ NY Giants
Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing NY Giants
NY Giants
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Giants's last 5 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
NY Giants is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Tampa Bay @ Carolina
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
Tampa Bay is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Carolina
Carolina is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Carolina is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
LA Chargers @ Miami
LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 5 games when playing on the road against Miami
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 5 games
Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games when playing at home against LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Miami's last 16 games when playing LA Chargers
Denver @ Las Vegas
Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games when playing Las Vegas
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games
Las Vegas
Las Vegas is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Las Vegas's last 5 games when playing Denver
Buffalo @ Arizona
Buffalo
Buffalo is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Arizona
Buffalo is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Arizona
Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games when playing Buffalo
Arizona is 5-14-1 SU in its last 20 games at home
Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh
Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 6 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Seattle @ LA Rams
Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing LA Rams
LA Rams
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Rams's last 5 games
LA Rams is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
San Francisco @ New Orleans
San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Francisco's last 7 games when playing New Orleans
San Francisco is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games on the road
New Orleans
New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of New Orleans's last 8 games
Baltimore @ New England
Baltimore
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Baltimore is 18-3 SU in its last 21 games
New England
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 6 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 5 games at home
Monday, November 16
Minnesota @ Chicago
Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Chicago
Chicago is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games when playing at home against Minnesota
Chicago is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Minnesota
Colts vs. Titans Week 10 Odds, Preview
Matt Blunt
The winner of Thursday Night Football matchup in Week 10 will be in the driver's seat for the AFC South crown this year, with a rematch coming against this rival again in two weeks. Both teams are coming off low-scoring affairs last week, but only the Titans were on the right side of their result.
There is far too much ground to realistically think the other two teams in this division will make any sort of threat, so the season could really come down to the next month for both teams.
Oddly enough, the fact that they both come in off the same total result is something we can hopefully use to our advantage this week, as this should be an entertaining game for in-game betting on the side.
Betting Resources
Week 10 Matchup: AFC South
Venue: Nissan Stadium
Location: Nashville, Tennessee
Date: Thursday, Nov. 12, 2020
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: FOX/NFL Network
Colts-Titans Betting Odds
Spread: Tennessee -2
Money-Line: Tennessee -135, Indianapolis +115
Total: 48.5
2020 Betting Stats
Indianapolis
Overall: 5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS, 4-4 O/U
Road: 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS, 3-1 O/U
Offense PPG: 26.0 (Rank 15)
Defense PPG: 20.0 (Rank 3)
Offense YPG: 360.5 (Rank 19)
Defense YPG: 290.0 (Rank 1)
Tennessee
Overall: 6-2 SU, 3-5 ATS, 5-2-1 O/U
Home: 4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS, 3-1-1 O/U
Offense PPG: 29.0 (Rank 7)
Defense PPG: 25.1 (Rank 16)
Offense YPG: 384.6 (Rank 10)
Defense YPG: 394.1 (Rank 25)
Derrick Henry and the Titans are listed as short favorites against the Colts on Thursday night. (AP)
Handicapping the Total
The fact that San Francisco scored that late TD with under 10 seconds left last Thursday to cash 'over' tickets that day was also a first this season. It was the first time in five tries that two TNF teams that were coming off the same total result (both went 'over' or 'under') and that they were able to duplicate the result.
Every other time the result was to flip it, and we've had the likes of Denver/NYJ and Cincinnati/Cleveland put on offensive shows after a rough offensive week, and a rescheduled KC/Buffalo game cash an 'under' ticket after both teams had allowed 40+ the week prior. Prevailing wisdom isn't always the best course of action, and expecting an 'over' between these two teams does make a lot of sense.
Tennessee's defense has still been awful for the better part of this season, and don't let a strong 3+ quarter performance against the Bears lull you to sleep too much. Most defenses seem to get right against the Bears.
The Colts can have a Bears-like performance from time to time, but I'd still like to see the Titans do it two weeks in a row on defense. The Titans three best performances defensively, in that they allowed less than 20 points, came in Week 1 after extensive prep time, against the Bills after extended rest and a very disjointed schedule for the Bills, and then against the Bears.
Then you've got the Colts, who confirmed that the only consistent thing about how the league determines what is and isn't a catch is the fact that they'll likely change their stance on those variables if Dez Bryant is in the building.
Defensively the Colts aren't bad, but Tennessee's still 6-2 SU with that rough defense on one end. Holding them down is far from an easy task, and every Colts road game this year against everyone but the Chicago Bears has gone 'over' the number (3-0 O/U).
The first meeting of the two in a rivalry because it can bring more of a gambling feel to it from a play-calling perspective. Coaches know they'll still have another chance at these guys, and they'll have a full game tape on where to make adjustments and where not to.
A short week without travel is a strong spot for the Titans defense to prove me wrong and show up for two weeks straight, but I'm not sure this early move down with the total isn't just another “prevailing wisdom” look trying to stay ahead of the market, and one that hasn't really worked for TNF.
I'm willing to go to the high side of this total to see if that 5-1 run on flipping the results gets back to form. I still believe I've got a very suspect Titans defense to help me along (or bail me out late) as well.
Head-to-Head History
Dec. 1, 2019 - Tennessee 31 at Indianapolis 17, Titans -1, Over 41.5
Sep. 15, 2019 - Indianapolis 19 at Tennessee 17, Colts +3, Under 43.5
Dec. 30, 2018 - Indianapolis 33 at Tennessee 17, Colts -5.5, Over 42.5
Nov. 18, 2018 - Indianapolis 38 vs. Tennessee 0, Colts 1, Under 50
Handicapping the Side
Figuring out who is the play on this side is something I'm not all that interested in doing. It is important to keep in mind though as you may be able to take more information from this game and apply it to the spread in the rematch in two weeks much better then trying to get it right now.
Cases can be made for both sides in this spot, and if you can find some spots in-game where plus-money on either side exists on the ML, going that route and calling it a night may be best for your brain as well.
There is the whole idea of having a team off a loss (Indy) against a team off a win (Tennessee) that I discussed here, favoring a pregame lean on taking the points with Indy, but you could just start with their plus-money ML line there and hope they get a lead at some point to where taking back something on the Titans makes sense.
But I'm not going to spend more time than that on this side really. Too close to call, and having a better idea of what's at stake for both sides in that return match is maybe where the brainpower should go.
Key Injuries
Indianapolis
TE Mo Alie-Cox: Knee - Questionable
WR T.Y. Hilton: Groin - Questionable
WR Marcus Johnson: Knee - Questionable
TE Jack Doyle: Concussion - Doubtful
LB Matthew Adams: Personal - Doubtful
Tennessee
WR A.J. Brown: Knee - Probable
G Rodger Saffold III: Shoulder - Probable
DE Jadeveon Clowney: Knee - Questionable
CB Dane Cruikshank: Groin - Doubtful
WR Adam Humphries: Concussion - Out
P Brett Kern: Wrist - Out
CB Tye Smith: Shoulder - Out
2020 Thursday Night Football (TNF) Betting Results
Home-Away: 4-4 SU, 2-6 ATS
Favorites-Underdogs: 4-4 SU, 2-6 ATS
Over-Under: 4-4