Tuesday 11/17/20 thread for handicapping service plays and expert predictions for NFL & NCAAF games
NFL odds Week 11: Opening lines, sharp money & line movement
Patrick Everson
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs should be rested and ready for their Week 11 Sunday night showdown against the Raiders in Las Vegas. The SuperBook opened Kansas City -6.5 and moved to -7 Sunday night.
NFL Week 10 has just one game left, while NFL Week 11 odds are on the betting board and already getting some action. The week starts strong with a Thursday night clash between the Arizona Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks, and the Kansas City Chiefs have a revenge game Sunday night against the Las Vegas Raiders.
The SuperBook's John Murray provided insights on NFL Week 11 opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting. Covers will update this report with NFL sharp picks vs. public bets and line movement throughout the week.
NFL Week 11 Odds
These are the current NFL Week 11 odds, as of November 13.
Teams on bye: San Francisco 49ers, New York Giants, Buffalo Bills, Chicago
Cardinals at Seahawks Odds
Opening line
Seahawks -4.5, Over/Under 57.5
Why the line moved
Arizona converted a Hail Mary from Kyler Murray to DeAndre Hopkins to notch a stunning 32-30 home victory over Buffalo, while a lackluster Seattle unit fell to the host Los Angeles Rams 23-16 Sunday.
"We opened Seattle -4.5 and quickly moved down to Seahawks -3.5," Murray said Sunday evening. "The move makes sense. People don’t trust the Seahawks. Their defense is no good, and even Russell Wilson has looked human the last couple of weeks. I expect very good handle on this game. This should be one of the better Thursday games of the season."
Eagles at Browns Odds
Opening line
Browns -3, Over/Under 45.5
Why the line moved
Philadelphia leads the NFC East, but that just makes it the least-awful team among a terrible bunch, as evidenced by its 27-17 road loss to the New York Giants on Sunday. Meanwhile, Cleveland got a much-need though unimpressive 10-7 win over Houston.
Eagles-Browns opened Cleveland -3 at The SuperBook and very briefly touched -3.5 Sunday night, before going back to -3.
"This game will be very one-sided. Nobody is looking to bet Philadelphia right now," Murray said. "The Eagles let bettors down in a big way today. This is already a lopsided ticket-count game, and I don’t expect that to change between now and next Sunday morning."
Falcons at Saints Odds
Opening line
OFF, Over/Under OFF
Why the line moved
Atlanta is coming off a bye week, and New Orleans probably wishes it had a bye week coming up. That's because quarterback Drew Brees suffered a rib injury and sat out the second half of the Saints' 27-17 home win over San Francisco.
Because of the Saints' uncertainty at QB, The SuperBook did not post this game Sunday night.
Lions at Panthers Odds
Opening line
OFF, Over/Under OFF
Why the line moved
This is another game The SuperBook is holding off on, after Carolina QB Teddy Bridgewater suffered a knee injury in Sunday's 46-23 home loss to Tampa Bay. Detroit, meanwhile, squeaked by Washington 30-27 on a 59-yard Matt Prater field goal as time expired.
Patriots at Texans Odds
Opening line
Texans -2.5, Over/Under TBA
Why the line moved
New England stunned visiting Baltimore in the Week 10 Sunday nighter, winning 23-17 as a touchdown underdog. On the flip side, Houston mustered just one score in a 10-7 road loss to Cleveland. The SuperBook opened at Texans -2.5, and the game came off the board once the Ravens-Patriots game kicked off. The line will go back up Monday morning.
Steelers at Jaguars Odds
Opening line
Jaguars +10.5, Over/Under 46
Why the line moved
Pittsburgh remained perfect with a 36-10 home rout of Cincinnati, improving to 9-0 SU, and the Steelers are tied with Miami for the league's ATS lead at 7-2. Jacksonville is almost the polar opposite at 1-8 SU (4-5 ATS), but challenged Green Bay and even led in the fourth quarter of a 24-20 road loss. The Steelers-Jags line ticked down a half-point Sunday night to -10 at The SuperBook, and there was no movement on the total.
Packers at Colts Odds
Opening line
Colts -1, Over/Under 48.5
Why the line moved
Green Bay got all it could handle in a 24-20 home win over hapless Jacksonville, while Indianapolis topped Tennessee 34-17 in the Thursday nighter.
"This may have been the game we discussed the most. Some had Green Bay favored, others had Indianapolis favored. We talked about just opening it pick’em and seeing where the market took us," Murray said. "Ultimately, we opened the Colts -1, because we know the wiseguys are very pro-Indianapolis. They bet the Colts hard on Thursday night and they hammered the Colts a week earlier in the game they lost to Baltimore.
"The Colts are a team that gets a lot of support from sharp players. This game sets up to be a huge Pros vs. Joes type game."
The first move came a couple of hours after the line went up, with The SuperBook shifting to Colts -1.5.
Bengals at Washington Odds
Opening line
Pick, Over/Under 46
Why the line moved
Cincinnati got rolled 36-10 at Pittsburgh in Week 10, and Washington was dealt a 30-27 road loss in the waning seconds on a 59-yard Detroit field goal. Early movement showed a little more interest in Washington, which ticked to -1 Sunday night at The SuperBook. The total also adjusted a tick, from 46 to 45.5.
Titans at Ravens Odds
Opening line
Ravens -7, Over/Under TBA
Why the line moved
Tennessee roared out of the gate this season, winning its first five, but the Titans dropped three of four since then, including a 34-17 home setback to Indianapolis on Thursday. The Ravens had their hands more than full with the Patriots on Sunday night, losing 23-17 on the road.
"We opened the Ravens -7 and closed it when the Sunday night game kicked off," Murray said. "The Titans are in a freefall right now and are on the outside of the playoff picture looking in. Baltimore will get a lot of public play."
Cowboys at Vikings Odds
Opening line
Vikings -7.5, Over/Under TBA
Why the line moved
Dallas is coming off a bye, while Minnesota still has Week 10 work to do in the Monday nighter at Chicago. Still, Murray and The SuperBook odds team opened the Vikings -7.5, and there was no line movement Sunday night.
Chiefs at Raiders Odds
Opening line
Raiders +6.5, Over/Under 54.5
Why the line moved
Las Vegas rolled over Denver 37-12 Sunday, while Kansas City rested during its bye week. Playing under the Sunday night spotlight, the Chiefs seek to avenge a 40-32 home loss to the Raiders in Week 5.
"It's painful to even talk about this game when we think about how great this night would’ve been for Chiefs and Raiders fans at Allegiant Stadium," Murray said, lamenting fanless games as COVID continues to soil the 2020 season. "We opened Chiefs -6.5 and quickly moved to -7 (even). This game will be just like Ravens-Patriots. All the parlays will roll to K.C. and K.C. moneyline. The Over will be a very, very public play as well. If the favorites cover all weekend – like they did today – then the books will be big-time Raiders fans next Sunday night."
Rams at Buccaneers Odds
Opening line
Buccaneers -4, Over/Under 49
Why the line moved
The Week 11 Monday nighter is a key NFC clash, and both teams are coming off wins: Los Angeles stymied Seattle 23-16, and Tampa Bay drubbed Carolina 46-23.
"We opened Bucs -4 and moved quickly to Bucs -3.5," Murray said. "We will need the Rams in this game, but how big remains to be seen. People may hesitate to bet the Bucs with both hands after their performance on Monday Night Football vs. the Giants and that Sunday Night Football disaster a week ago (against the Saints). There will be support for the Rams, too."
Dolphins at Broncos Odds
Opening line
Broncos +3, Over/Under 44.5
Why the line moved
Miami is 3-0 SU and ATS with Tua Tagovailoa starting, including Sunday's 29-21 home win over the Los Angeles Chargers, and the Dolphins have won five in a row SU and ATS overall. The Broncos got boatraced by Las Vegas 37-12 on the road Sunday and have lost three of their last four. The number was stable at Dolphins -3 Sunday night, though the price moved from -110 to even money.
Jets at Chargers Odds
Opening line
Chargers -9.5, Over/Under 46.5
Why the line moved
New York (0-9 SU, 2-7 ATS) found a way to not lose in Week 10 – by having a bye. Los Angeles has got to be the hardest-luck team in the league, sitting at 2-7, with all seven losses coming in one-score games. The SuperBook opened the Chargers -9.5 and didn't move Sunday night.
NFL betting tips for Week 11: Bet Now or Bet Later
Jason Logan
Rookie QB Tua Tagovailoa is getting plenty of help from his team, with the Miami defense and special teams making huge plays since he took over the starting job.
Due to the expanded postseason, NFL teams with just a whiff of the playoffs can hold their motivation much further into the schedule than past years.
But as teams reveal themselves as either contenders or pretenders, it will still be vital to get the best of the weekly NFL spreads. It’s a tried and true NFL betting strategy.
These are our NFL betting tips for the spreads and totals to bet now, and the ones you should bet later.
Miami Dolphins (-2.5) at Denver Broncos: Bet Now
This spread is already popping up to a field goal with most books dealing the red-hot Dolphins -2.5 (-115). Miami is coming off an impressive victory over the Chargers in Week 10, picking up its fifth straight dub and winning six of its past seven contests, all while posting a 6-1 ATS mark.
Climbing the mountain to take on the Broncos is always a tough task. However, everything seems to be clicking with the Fins. From defense to special teams to Tua Tagovailoa: Miami is a sound machine that would make Gloria Estefan proud.
Denver is gushing points on defense, watching its last four opponents post an average tally of 36 points per outing. Quarterback Drew Lock threw four interceptions in the loss to Las Vegas on Sunday and takes on a dangerous Miami stop unit that’s cashing in on turnovers. If you like the Dolphins in Denver, get them below a field goal now.
Philadelphia Eagles (+3) at Cleveland Browns: Bet Later
If you’re looking to bet the Eagles – and I don’t know why you would be – wait it out in Week 11. Philadelphia opened +3 for this battle with the Browns and books are dealing Cleveland -3 (-120) or have already jumped to -3.5.
The Eagles are coming off a bad loss in East Rutherford as 4.5-point favorites visiting the Giants. Philadelphia sputtered on offense again and has averaged just under 21 points per game over the past three contests.
As bad as that is, the Browns attack is even worse. Cleveland has a grand total of 16 points in its last two games, including a 10-7 stinker of a win against Houston in Week 10. Quarterback Baker Mayfield has been miserable in those outings, completing 24 of his 45 total passes for a collective 254 yards and zero touchdowns. You could say Baker is sleepwalking out there, but it seems he’s getting plenty of Z’s on the sideline.
If you’re betting against the Browns in Week 11, wait it out and make sure you get Philly +3.5 (or more) before kickoff.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Jacksonville Jaguars (Under 46): Bet Now
The Steelers hit the road for the fourth time in the past five games when they go to Jacksonville in Week 11. Pittsburgh can pile up the points but it does see a downtick in production when away from Heinz Field. On the season, the Steelers are averaging 32.5 points at home—compared to only 26.2 on the road.
Thankfully, when the offense drags its toes (and not in that cool Santonio Holmes kind of way) the Pittsburgh defense picks up the slack. In fact, the Steel Curtain has been heavy since Week 6, allowing an average of just 16.8 points against in those five games.
Enter the Jaguars and rookie passer Jake Luton, who’s played pretty well in two pro starts but is far from blowing the doors off opponents. Jacksonville has totaled 25 and 14 points on offense in the past two games while facing defenses ranked near the backend of the league in DVOA. Pittsburgh is among the stingiest stop units in the land and near the top of the NFL in that metric. Take the Under before this creeps to the key number of 45.
Green Bay Packers at Indianapolis Colts (Under 49): Bet Later
This total opened at 49 points and is starting to climb higher, with some 49.5 totals on the board as of Sunday night. If you’re leaning Under in this non-conference clash, pump the breaks and see if this Over/Under ticks toward 50 points before clicking submit.
The Packers are coming off a bad showing at home to the Jaguars, managing only 24 points and failing to cover as 13.5-point favorites. Green Bay has been spotty on offense and now faces a Colts stop unit that had a mini bye to prep for Aaron Rodgers after shutting down Tennessee last Thursday night.
Indianapolis ranks No. 1 in average yards allowed and has limited foes to only 19.7 points per game on the year. Granted, some of the Colts’ opponents so far were softer than a foam cheesehead, but they have checked their last three opponents (Detroit, Baltimore and Tennessee) to just 4.8 yards per play. Indy is also 1-3 Over/Under at home this year.
NFL Week 11 Injuries, Weather
Patrick Everson
Drew Brees has been sidelined for several weeks with rib fractures and a collapsed lung, sinking the Saints' spread vs. the Falcons to -4.5.
NFL Week 10 is almost entirely in the rearview mirror, NFL Week 11 odds are on the board, and several betting factors are already in play. That includes the typical injury information, most notably some bad news out of New Orleans on Saints quarterback Drew Brees.
Week 11 Injuries
New Orleans Saints: The early best-case scenario is that Brees will miss two to three weeks, but it could be longer, after a Monday MRI revealed multiple rib fractures and a collapsed lung. Brees didn't play the second half of Sunday's home win over San Francisco. When the news hit Monday afternoon that Brees was out and Jameis Winston in, The SuperBook at Westgate posted the Saints -4.5 for Sunday's home game against Atlanta. Jay Kornegay, vice president of race and sports for Westgate, said Brees is worth 2-2.5 points to the spread, meaning the Saints would have been touchdown favorites against Atlanta.
Carolina Panthers: Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater apparently eluded a serious knee injury Sunday against Tampa Bay, spraining an MCL, and might be able to play this week against Detroit. However, The SuperBook is awaiting clarity on the situation before posting the Lions-Panthers line.
Detroit Lions: QB Matthew Stafford played through an injury to his right thumb in Sunday's win over Washington, but is having his thumb evaluated. The expectation is that he will play this week at Carolina. The SuperBook doesn't have the line on the board, due to the uncertain status of Panthers QB Teddy Bridgewater.
Denver Broncos: QB Drew Lock, who threw four interceptions in Sunday's loss at Las Vegas, has a minor rib injury, but it's enough to make his status uncertain for Sunday's home game against Miami. Denver opened +3 at The SuperBook and moved to +3.5 Monday afternoon. The total opened at 44.5 and reached 46, then dipped to 45 Monday afternoon.
Kansas City Chiefs: Left tackle Erik Fisher and right tackle Mitchell Schwartz were put on the reserve/COVID list, as was backup left guard Martinas Rankin. They could still play this week at Las Vegas, if they clear protocols. The SuperBook opened the Chiefs -6.5 and quickly went to -7, then dipped to -6 Monday afternoon before returning to the opening number.
Week 11 Weather
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks: There's an 80 percent chance of daytime showers, but that tails off to 30 percent in the evening for this week's Thursday night game. However, the total was an early upward mover at The SuperBook, from 57.5 to 58.5, then ticked back to 58 Monday afternoon.
Philadelphia Eagles at Cleveland Browns: The early forecast calls for a 40 percent chance of rain, but as was the case in Week 10, wind could be the more noteworthy issue. Monday's prediction called for winds of 10-20 mph. That said, this total was on a speedy rise Sunday night through Monday morning, going from 45.5 to 48 at The SuperBook.
321ARIZONA -322 SEATTLE
SEATTLE is 54-24 ATS (27.6 Units) vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing =6 yards/play in the second half of the season since 1992.
465TENNESSEE -466 BALTIMORE
TENNESSEE is 17-37 ATS (-23.7 Units) in road games after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored since 1992.
469DALLAS -470 MINNESOTA
DALLAS are 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) against conference opponents in the current season.
Cardinals vs. Seahawks Week 11 Odds, Preview
Matt Blunt
The funny thing about streaks in betting, is that if I told you a football team was on a 7-0 against the spread run in a specific spot, plenty of bettors would be more inclined to make a play on that team. But if I told you a specific individual bettor that was on a 7-0 ATS run, the perspective would flip to looking to fade with losses likely coming.
Why is that?
Probably best to leave that question unanswered for now, as it's been a 7-0 ATS run for these prime-time plays I've been putting up, dating back to the Tampa/New York Giants game on MNF.
And yet I know there is going to be a loss or two coming soon, and with the great games we've got on tap for TNF, SNF, and MNF in Week 11, I'd take the 'no' on me sweeping a third straight week.
Probably something to keep in mind the next time you see so many streaks getting mentioned everywhere (congrats to QB Kirk Cousins for snapping that 0-9 streak on MNF by the way).
Week 11 begins with this Arizona-Seattle rematch, and both teams are coming off some interesting performances a week ago.
Arizona walked it off thanks to a wild Hail Mary play, while quarterback Russell Wilson has a game where his best Superman cape is in the wash and all that Seattle love from a month ago is just a distant memory right now.
In case you were sleeping in Week 10 of the NFL, the highlight "Murray Magic" currently stands as the top play of the 2020 regular season so far.
The Seahawks may be the team that “needs” this win more on Thursday night with how they've looked the past two weeks, but nothing has really changed with this team.
They've got a defense that's in rough shape, and an offense that still converts far too few 3rd downs (39% ranked 26th in NFL) that's run by one of the MVP front-runners. Wilson has an off day and all those flaws get magnified like they did vs the Rams last week.
Can they correct them on a short week against a division rival they know they probably should have beat in the first meeting, and one that's riding high off such an improbable win.
Betting Resources
Week 11 Matchup: NFC West
Venue: CenturyLink Field
Location: Seattle, Washington
Date: Thursday, Nov. 19, 2020
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: FOX/NFL Network
The Cardinals outlasted the Seahawks, 37-34 in overtime back in Week 7. (AP)
Cardinals-Seahawks Betting Odds
Spread: Seattle -3
Money-Line: Seattle -170, Arizona +150
Total: 57.5
2020 Betting Stats
Arizona
Overall: 6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS, 3-6 O/U
Road: 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS, 0-4 O/U
Offense PPG: 29.6 (Rank 7)
Defense PPG: 23.3 (Rank 9)
Offense YPG: 425.4 (Rank 1)
Defense YPG: 370.0 (Rank 18)
Seattle
Overall: 6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS, 6-3 O/U
Home: 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS, 3-1 O/U
Offense PPG: 32.2 (Rank 1)
Defense PPG: 29.6 (Rank 28)
Offense YPG: 405.9 (Rank 3)
Defense YPG: 448.3 (Rank 32)
Handicapping the Total
If you've read pieces I've done in the past on games that were division rematches, you'll know that looking at flipping the results on both the side and total is a place I'll often start. Looking at taking the Seattle side will come a little further down, but in terms of the total, it appears as though the popularity of sharing that opinion is undecided.
Because of the combination of having a brutal defense and Russell Wilson as their QB, Seattle games are always going to get a lot of 'over' respect from the outset when a number comes out.
They've been hit hard to the 'over' early on in past weeks, and a 6-3 O/U record overall for the Seahawks is not ever going to be a deterrent from sticking to that plan.
Thanks to the walk-off win vs Buffalo, Arizona extended their streak of scoring at least 30 points to five straight games, the last three of which have cashed 'over' tickets. The Cardinals scored a TD in every quarter of that first meeting with Seattle, so thinking they'll be able to possibly do the same this time around isn't far fetched at all.
But then you get a total of 57.5 (currently) where a lot of things still have to go right for significant stretches of time for NFL teams. Yes, the first game finished with 71 points, but both defenses were able to make significant adjustments coming out of halftime, with only total points scored in the 3rd and 4th quarters; 10 of which came by Arizona in the final 2.5 minutes.
If that's the type of game we see from them in this rematch – one where it's going to feel like a bit more is at stake within the division etc – you might not get an explosive 30 minute stretch to make up for the points you'd need if a 24-point half was duplicated.
The short week of prep isn't as big of a negative as it can be for other teams on TNF here because both sides have the same season self-scouting film they can use to breakdown and recall since it was just a few weeks ago. What worked and what didn't should click back into place for both teams relatively quickly on Thursday, as these defenses look much better than they have the past two weeks.
It's an 'under' or nothing for the total in the end.
Head-to-Head History
Oct. 25, 2020 - Arizona 37 vs. Seattle 34, Cardinals +3.5, Over 55.5
Dec. 22, 2019 - Arizona 27 at Seattle 13, Cardinals +8, Under 51
Sep. 29, 2019 - Seattle 27 at Arizona 10, Seahawks -5.5, Under 49
Dec. 30, 2018 - Seattle 27 vs. Arizona 24, Cardinals +14, Over 39.5
Handicapping the Side
Flipping the result from the first meeting and backing Seattle here is an interesting proposition. The point spread has already dropped multiple points against the Seahawks since opening, and how sour the market has gone on Wilson these past two weeks does give the sense that Seattle's in a bit of a buy low spot here.
Then on the Arizona side of things, it's always tough to come down from such a high like they had in that Buffalo win and flip the composure back a few days later for another very tough, division, opponent. There are a lot of things working in Seattle's favor situationally.
But then you remember the defense they trot out there, and you think about the notion that if Wilson struggles again this week, a Seattle ATS play has no shot, where an 'under' play in a Seattle loss still does. Far from a ringing endorsement for either side really, and not the greatest way to approach any play, but it's a thought I can't get out of my head when considering backing Seattle.
It would be Seattle or nothing for me though on the side, but maybe now that it's settled in the -3 range, a more reasonable ML price on Seattle is now out there for bettors. You never know with traditional scoring lines these days with XP's missed and two-point conversions gone for and Arizona backers on the closing number last week know all about that.
Do have a tough time seeing Arizona being anywhere near their best on a short week with travel, having already proved they could beat this Seahawks team, and being off how that Buffalo win played out. But in case it's another rough outing for Wilson and that Seahawks offense, I'd prefer to take my chances with the total.
Key Injuries
Arizona
TE Darrell Daniels: Ankle - Questionable
S Deionte Thompson: Knee - Questionable
DE Jordan Phillips: Foot - Questionable
OL Justin Murray: Hand - Questionable
DT Leki Fotu: Ankle - Questionable
Seattle
RB Carlos Hyde: Hamstring - Probable
WR Tyler Lockett: Knee - Questionable
G Mike Iupati: Leg - Questionable
G Jordan Simmons: Calf - Questionable
C Kyle Fuller: Ankle - Questionable
RB Travis Homer: Hand - Questionable
CB Neiko Thorpe: Groin - Questionable
DE Benson Mayowa: Ankle - Questionable
RB Chris Carson: Foot - Questionable
CB Shaquill Griffin: Concussion - Questionable
C Ethan Pocic: Concussion - Questionable
DT Bryan Mone: Ankle - Questionable
CB Quinton Dunbar: Knee - Out
2020 Thursday Night Football (TNF) Betting Results
Home-Away: 4-5 SU, 2-7 ATS
Favorites-Underdogs: 5-4 SU, 3-6 ATS
Over-Under: 5-4
NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 11
Cardinals (6-3) @ Seattle (6-3)
— Arizona scored 30+ points in last five games, winning four of them.
— Cardinals won three of four road games; this is their first road tilt since Week 6.
— Redbirds are 6-2-1 ATS in last nine games as a road underdog, 1-0 TY.
— Cardinals are running ball for 203.8 yards/game in last four games.
— Arizona trailed at halftime in six of its nine games.
— Seattle lost three of last four games, after a 5-0 start.
— Last week (one TD) was first time Seahawks didn’t score at least four TD’s in a game.
— Seattle is 3-1 ATS as a home favorite this year.
— Seahawks scored 31+ points in seven of nine games; they scored 34-34-16 in losses.
— Seven of their nine games went over the total.
— Seahawks are minus-6 in turnovers (1-7) their last two games.
— Arizona (+3.5) beat Seattle 37-34 in OT in Week 7, after trailing 27-17 at halftime; both teams had 500+ yards of total offense.
— Cardinals won four of last five visits here, with lone loss 27-24 two years ago.
Eagles (3-5-1) @ Cleveland (6-3)
— Philly is 1-4-1 SU outside their division.
— Eagles are 3-0 if they allow 21 or fewer points, 0-5-1 if they allow more than 21.
— Underdogs covered seven of their nine games this season.
— Eagles are 10-6 ATS in last 16 games as a road underdog.
— Last four games, Philly allowed 156.5 rushing yards/game.
— Five of last seven Philly games stayed under the total.
— Browns scored 6-7-6 points in their losses, averaged 32.8 ppg in wins
— Cleveland won four of five home games, losing to the Raiders.
— Browns scored 10 or fewer points in three of last four games.
— Cleveland is 5-4-2 ATS in its last 11 games as a home favorite.
— Under is 3-1 in their last four games.
— Last four games, Browns were outscored 47-23 in first half.
— Eagles won last five series games.
— Philly won last three visits here, last two 34-31OT/17-16.
Falcons (3-6) @ New Orleans (7-2)
— Falcons won three of last four games, after an 0-5 start.
— Atlanta scored 30.3 ppg in four games since the coaching change.
— Atlanta led six of its nine games at halftime.
— Falcon opponents converted only 15 of last 46 third down plays.
— Atlanta is 7-4 ATS in last 11 games as a home underdog, 3-1 TY.
— Four of their last six games stayed under the total.
— Brees has fractured ribs/lung issues; Winston/Hill will split QB duties.
— New Orleans won its last six games, by 6-3-3-3-35-14 points.
— Saints allowed 20.3 ppg in their wins, 34-37 points in losses.
— New Orleans won four of five home games, winning by 11-3-3-14 points.
— Saints are 8-14 ATS in their last 22 games as a home favorite.
— Seven of their nine games went over the total.
— Saints won four of last five series games.
— Teams split last six series games played here; all three Saints wins were by 10+.
Lions (4-5) @ Carolina (3-7)
— Detroit lost its last two games, giving up 41-34 points.
— Lions allowed 487-464 yards in their last two games.
— Detroit is +6 in turnovers in its wins, minus-7 in its losses.
— Lions are 4-6 ATS in last ten games as a road underdog.
— Detroit was outrushed 483-263 in its last three games.
— Last three Lion games went over the total.
— Carolina lost its last five games, giving up 30.8 ppg.
— Panthers lost four of their five home games SU this year.
— Carolina lost four five home games, allowing 29.8 ppg.
— Panthers are 1-4-1 ATS in last six games as a home underdog.
— Carolina is 0-7 when they allow 23+ points, 3-0 when they allow 21 or fewer.
— Panthers allowed 8+ yards/pass attempt in their last three games.
— Carolina won seven of nine series games.
— Lions lost four of five visits here, with win in 1999.
Patriots (4-5) @ Houston (2-7)
— New England won its last two games, running ball for 159-173 yards.
— Patriots lost three of four road games, with win 30-27 over the Jets.
— New England trailed at halftime in five of its last six games.
— NE turned ball over 14 times in first six games, once in last three games.
— Last 4+ years, Patriots are 21-13-1 ATS as a road favorite, 0-1 TY.
— Three of their last four road games went over the total.
— Texans lost three of last four games; both their wins TY are over Jacksonville.
— Texans lost three of four home games, with losses by 7-8-15 points.
— Houston are 0-6 this year when they score fewer than 27 points.
— Texans’ last two games were decided by total of five points.
— Under is 4-2 in Houston’s last six games.
— Texans are 2-5 ATS in last seven games as a home underdog.
— Patriots won 10 of 12 series games, but lost 28-22 to Houston LY.
— Average total in last four series games is 54.0
— Teams split last four meetings played here.
Steelers (9-0) @ Jacksonville (1-7)
— Steelers won first nine games (7-2 ATS), scoring 30.1 ppg.
— Pittsburgh is 4-0 on road; last three road wins were by 4-3-5 points.
— Over is 5-2-1 in their last eight games.
— Steelers are +9 in turnovers this season.
— Pittsburgh is 2-6-2 ATS in last ten games as a road favorite.
— In their last five games, Steelers won field position by 9+ yards four times.
— Jaguars lost last eight games, but covered last two.
— Jaguars’ last two losses were by total of six points.
— Jacksonville gave up 31.3 ppg in their last eight games.
— Jaguars are 7-6-1 ATS in last 13 games as a home dog, 2-3 TY.
— Jacksonville has allowed 7+ yards/pass attempt in every game this year.
— AFC South non-divisional underdogs are 3-7-1 ATS.
— Pittsburgh won four of last six series games.
— Steelers won five of last six visits here, winning last three, by 5-8-4 points.
Packers (7-2) @ Indianapolis (6-3)
— Green Bay won/covered four of its five road games this year.
— Packers scored 30+ points in six of their wins; 10-22 points in losses.
— Green Bay converted 53-110 third down plays (48.2%)
— Packers are 6-6-1 ATS in last 13 games as a road underdog.
— Five of last six Green Bay games stayed under the total.
— Packers were outscored in second half of their last six games.
— Colts are 5-0 when they score 28+ points. 1-3 when they do not.
— Indy won three of four home games, losing to Baltimore.
— Colts played last Thursday, so they’ve had a mini-bye since then.
— Indy is 11-7-1 ATS in last 19 games as a home favorite, 2-1 TY.
— AFC South teams are 8-15 ATS outside their division.
— Four of their last five games went over the total.
— Colts won three of last four series games, winning last two 30-27/31-26.
— Average total in last six series games: 61.2.
— Packers lost last four visits here, by 27-3-14-3 points.
Bengals (2-6-1) @ Washington (2-7)
— Bengals lost four of last five games, but covered three of last four.
— Cincinnati is 6-2-1 ATS overall this season.
— Bengals are 0-4-1 SU on the road, losing by 5-24-4-26 points.
— Cincy is 13-7 ATS in last 20 games as a road underdog.
— Bengals led at halftime in four of their last five games.
— Three of their last four games went over the total.
— Washington lost its seven of last eight games, last two by 3-3 points.
— Smith threw for 715 yards the last two weeks; last week was his first start since he shattered his leg in 2018.
— Washington is 0-5 outside the division, losing by 15-14-15-20-3 points.
— Washington is 2-3 SU at home, losing by 14-20-3 points.
— Washington is 1-4 ATS in last five games as a home favorite.
— Under is 3-0-1 in last four Washington games.
— Cincinnati is 3-0-1 in last four series games.
— Last meeting ended in a 27-27 tie in London, four years ago.
— Bengals lost three of their five visits here, winning last one 38-31 in ’12.
Tennessee (6-3) @ Ravens (6-3)
— Tennessee allowed 31+ points in three of its last four games.
— Titans are 2-3 in their last five games, after a 4-0 start.
— Titans were outscored 78-48 in 2nd half of their last four games.
— This is Tennessee’s 2nd road game since September.
— Over is 5-2-1 in Titans’ last eight games.
— Titans are 7-6 ATS in last 13 games as a road underdog.
— Baltimore lost two of last three games, after a 5-1 start.
— Ravens allowed 17 or fewer points in five of six wins, 34-28-23 in losses.
— Baltimore split its four home games SU this year.
— Under is 6-3 in Baltimore games this season.
— AFC North teams are 14-6-2 ATS outside their division.
— Ravens are 7-13 ATS in last 20 games as a home favorite, 2-2 TY.
— Teams split last eight series games.
— Titans won three of last four visits here, winning 28-12 in a playoff game here LY.
Cowboys (2-7) @ Minnesota (4-5)
— Cowboys were outscored 110-41 in losing last four games; AAF alum Gilbert makes his 2nd NFL start here- his first road start.
— Last eight games, Dallas is minus-14 in turnovers.
— Cowboys are 1-8 ATS this year; their two wins by total of 4 points.
— Last four Dallas games stayed under the total.
— Cowboys are 0-5 SU on road, losing by 3-7-22-14 points.
— Dallas is 4-8-1 ATS in last 13 games as a road underdog.
— Vikings are 3-0 since their bye, running ball for 182.3 ypg.
— Minnesota covered six of its last seven games.
— Vikings allowed 27+ points in all five of their losses; they allowed 23-22-20-13 in wins.
— Minnesota has 12 turnovers (-8) in its losses, two in its wins (+5).
— Vikings are 5-2 ATS in last seven games as a road favorite (0-0 TY).
— Minnesota is 19-10-2 ATS in last 31 games as a home favorite, 1-2 TY.
— Vikings are 3-0 SU when they allow fewer than 27 points.
— Teams split last six series games.
— Cowboys lost five of last six visits to Minnesota, winning 17-15 in last one, in ’16.
Miami (6-3) @ Denver (3-6)
— Dolphins won/covered their last five games, scoring 31.6 ppg.
— Dolphins scored 20+ points in first half of four of those five games.
— Miami allowed 17 or fewer points in four of six wins; 21-31-31 in losses.
— Miami won three of four road games, losing season opener 21-11 in Foxboro.
— Dolphins are a road favorite for first time since Week 2 of 2017.
— In last three games, Miami has two defensive TD’s, a punt return for a TD and a blocked punt where they got the ball on the 1-yard line.
— Denver lost three of last four games, giving up 36 ppg.
— Broncos gave up 26+ points in seven of their last eight games.
— Denver lost three of four home games, losing by 2-18-27 points.
— Broncos are 9-5-1 ATS in last 15 games as a home underdog, 2-2 TY.
— Three of their last four games went over the total.
— Denver turned ball over 11 times (-7) in their last four games.
— Miami is 10-3-1 in last 14 series games, but lost two of last three.
— Teams are 4-4-1 in games played here; Dolphins’ last visit was 2014.
Jets (0-9) @ LA Chargers (2-7)
— Winless Jets are 2-7 ATS, losing road games by 10-29-24-26 points.
— Jets are 0-4 ATS as a road underdog this year, losing by 10-19-24-26 points.
— Jets have been outscored 49-7 in 2nd half of their last four games.
— Flacco is expected to get another start in place of injured starter Darnold.
— Five of their last seven games stayed under the total.
— AFC East non-divisional underdogs are 7-8 ATS.
— Since Week 2 of last year, Chargers are 2-16 in games decided by 8 or fewer points.
— Bolts lost seven of last eight games, with five losses by 5 or fewer points.
— Last six Charger games went over the total.
— Chargers are 4-10 ATS in last 14 games as a home favorite, 1-1 TY.
— In last four games, LA scored 18 TD’s on 57 drives; the rookie QB is good.
— In their last six games, Chargers gave up 31.3 ppg.
— Chargers won last three series games by combined score of 72-24.
— Jets won four of last six visits to San Diego; last one was in 2014.
Chiefs (8-1) @ Las Vegas (6-3)
— Chiefs won their last four games, covering three of them.
— Kansas City won all four road games this year, covering three of them.
— Chiefs are 8-3 ATS in last 11 games as a home favorite, 2-1 TY.
— Under is 5-3 in their last eight games.
— Chiefs covered five of last six post-bye games.
— Divisional home underdogs are 13-4 ATS in the NFL this year.
— Las Vegas won/covered four of their last five games overall.
— Raiders scored 31+ points in five of six wins; 20-23-20 in their losses.
— Las Vegas split their four home games SU.
— Raiders converted 19 of their last 37 third down plays.
— Seven of nine Raider games went over the total.
— Raiders are 7-8-2 ATS in last 17 games as a home underdog.
— Raiders (+11.5) upset Chiefs 40-32 at Arrowhead in Week 5; the team buses took a victory lap around stadium on their way to the airport, stirring the pot somewhat.
— Chiefs won 10 of last 12 series games, four of last five in Oakland.
Rams (6-3) @ Tampa Bay (7-3)
— Rams split their last four games, after a 4-1 start.
— LA has outscored opponents 106-35 in second half of games.
— Rams lost three of five road games; this is their 5th game in eastern time zone this year.
— LA’s last six games stayed under the total.
— Under McVay, Rams are 6-3 ATS as a road underdog, 1-1 TY.
— Rams lost veteran LT Whitworth last week; big loss for OL.
— Tampa Bay won seven of its last nine games.
— Bucs are 3-1 SU at home, losing last home game to New Orleans.
— Last 4+ years, Tampa Bay is 5-13-2 ATS as a home favorite, 1-1-1 TY.
— Last three games, Bucs were outscored 62-23 in first half.
— Tampa Bay is 7-0 when it scores 25+ points, 0-3 when it scores less.
— Rams won five of last six series games, but got waxed 55-40 at home by Tampa LY, when Rams were 3-0 and a 9-point favorite.
— Rams won last three visits here, by 15-2-5 points.
Tech Trends - Week 11
Bruce Marshall
Week 11 of the NFL season kicks off on Thursday, Nov. 19 and we've identified betting trends and angles for all the matchups.
We also have "Tech Edge" leans on the side or total for each game too.
Thursday, Nov. 19
ARIZONA at SEATTLE
Rematch of Arizona's 40-34 OT win, a rare home win in the series.
Arizona has covered the spread in five straight games when playing in Seattle.
Road team is 9-2-1 over last 12 meetings.
Kliff Kingsbury is 9-2-1 vs. spread when playing on the road since last year.
Seattle has gone OVER in seven of its last 10 games
Tech Edge: Cardinals and slight to OVER based on series and point total trends.
Sunday, Nov. 22
PHILADELPHIA at CLEVELAND
Eagles only 6-11 on board.
Browns lost four straight vs the line this year, and 3-9 over last 12 vs the spread since late 2019.
Tech Edge: Slight to Eagles based on team trends.
ATLANTA at NEW ORLEANS
Atlanta has won three of its last four games.
Atlanta has covered the spread in three of its last four games.
New Orleans is 2-3 vs the spread when playing at home this year.
New Orleans is 3-7 over its last 10 games vs the line when playing at home.
New Orleans has gone OVER the point total in nine of its last 11 games.
Tech Edge: Falcons and OVER based on team and point total trends.
DETROIT at CAROLINA
Matt Rhule is 1-4 vs the line when playing at home this year, Carolina is 1-7-1 in last eight vs line when playing at home.
Rhule is 0-2 vs the line when favored at home this year, Carolina is 0-4 as chalk dating to mid 2019.
Lions are 3-2 vs the line when playing on the road this year (0-3 at home).
Detroit has gone OVER the point total in eight of its last 12 games since late 2019.
Tech Edge: Lions and OVER based on team and point total trends
NEW ENGLAND at HOUSTON
Bill Belichick vs Romeo Crennel, one of Belichick's first 'disciples' to go out on his own and become a head coach.
Heading into last Sunday vs Ravens, Belichick is 1-4 vs the line this year but if getting points note a 14-5 mark since 2010 (1-2 this year, but close to 3-0).
Houston is 2-7 vs the line this year, and 2-8-1 vs spread over its last 11 games
Tech Edge: Patriots based on team trends.
PITTSBURGH at JACKSONVILLE
Pittsburgh has won nine straight games this year.
Pittsburgh is 7-2 vs the lne this year (tempted to throw out 2019 results with no Ben Roethlisberger almost all season).
Piittsburgh has gone OVER the point total in six of its last eight games this year
Jacksonville has covered the spread in two straight games, but just 6-11 over last 17 games vs the line since mid 2019 (3-5 this year).
Jacksonville has gone OVER the point total in 13 of its last 22 games.
Tech Edge: Steelers and OVER based on team and point total trends.
GREEN BAY at INDIANAPOLIS
Green Bay is 6-3 vs the line this year.
Green Bay has gone OVER the point total in seven of its last 11 games since late 2019.
If gettiing points, Colts are rarely a home underdog (1-0 since 2018).
Upon a time in the 60s, this was one of the rivlaries in the NFC.
Tech Edge: Slight to Packers and OVER based on team and poiint total trends.
CINCINNATI at WASHINGTON
Cincinnati has gone OVER the point total in 10 of its last 13 games since late last year.
Washington has failed to cover the spread in seven of its last eight games
Tech Edge: Bengals based on recent team trends.
TENNESSEE at BALTIMORE
Tennessee is 0-3 vs the line when playing on the road this year (but back to scene of crime in playoffs lat January when they won in Baltimore).
Tennessee has gone OVER the point total in 17 of its last 22 games since Ryan Tannnehill took over at quarterback (though playoff game was UNDER).
Tennessee has won 15 of its last 22 games since Tannehill took over at quarterback.
Baltimore is 4-4 vs the line in its last eight home games.
Tech Edge: OVER and slight to Titans based on point total and team trends.
DALLAS at MINNESOTA
Dallas is 0-4 vs the line when playing on the road this year.
Dallas is 0-6 vs the spread when playing on the road snce late 2019.
Dallas is 1-8 overall vs the points this year.
Dallas has gone UNDER the point total in four straight games this year.
After Monday night, Minnesota has covered the spread in six of its last seven games
Minnesota has gone OVER the point total in five of its last six games
Tech Edge: Vikings based on recent team trends.
KANSAS CITY at LAS VEGAS
Revenge for Kansas City after a 40-32 home less on Oct. 11.
Kansas City is 7-1 vs the line in last eight road games
Kansas City is 4-4 vs number over last eight games as the series vistor after previous domination in role.
Andy Reid is 15-3 vs number over last 18 games since mid 2019.
Las Vegas is 2-2 vs the line at Allegiant Stadium.
Las Vegas has gone OVER the point total iin six of its last nine games this year
Tech Edge: Chiefs based on extended trends.
MIAMI at DENVER
Miami has covered the spread in 16 of its last 21 games since early 2019.
Miami has covered the spread in five straight games, and seven of its last eight this year.
If underdog, note Denver is 11-7 in role (11-4 if taking out Kansas City).
Denver has gone OVER the point total in three of its last four and four of its last six games this year.
Tech Edge: Dolphins and OVER based on team and point total trends .
N.Y. JETS at L.A. CHARGERS
New York has covered the spread in two of its last three games after failing to cover its first six games.
Chargers are 1-7-1 over last nine games when favorites, and 2-10-1 over last 13 in the role.
Chargers have gone OVER the point total in six straight games this year.
New York has gone UNDER the point total in four of its last five games this year.
Tech Edge: Jets and OVER based on team and point total trends.
Monday, Nov. 13
L.A. RAMS at TAMPA BAY
Los Angeles has failed to cover the spread in two straight road games after covering nine of 11 on road prior.
Los Angeles lost to Bruce Arians 55-40 at home last year.
Tampa Bay has gone OVER the point total in six of its last 10 games this year, and 18 of its last 26 since last year.
Arians has gone OVER the point total in 33 of his last 49 games since mid 2016 with Arizona.
Tech Edge: OVER based on point total trends.