Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites.
NFL
Weather Report
Thursday, November 14
NFL
Week 11
Trend Report
Washington vs Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Philadelphia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Washington
Green Bay vs Chicago
Green Bay is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Chicago is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home
Chicago is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Cleveland vs New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Cleveland's last 14 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cleveland's last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games at home
Minnesota vs Tennessee
Minnesota is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Tennessee
Minnesota is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tennessee's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 17 of Tennessee's last 25 games at home
Jacksonville vs Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 6 games
Jacksonville is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Detroit is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Detroit is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
Las Vegas vs Miami
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Las Vegas's last 9 games when playing Miami
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Las Vegas's last 5 games when playing on the road against Miami
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Miami's last 9 games when playing Las Vegas
Miami is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Las Vegas
LA Rams vs New England
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Rams's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Rams's last 5 games when playing New England
New England is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing LA Rams
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 5 games when playing LA Rams
Baltimore vs Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baltimore's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing Baltimore
Pittsburgh is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Baltimore
Indianapolis vs NY Jets
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Jets
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Jets's last 6 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
NY Jets is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
Seattle vs San Francisco
Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Seattle's last 11 games on the road
San Francisco is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Seattle
San Francisco is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Seattle
Atlanta vs Denver
Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Denver
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta
Kansas City vs Buffalo
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Buffalo is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 5 games at home
Cincinnati vs LA Chargers
Cincinnati is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Cincinnati is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Chargers's last 7 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of LA Chargers's last 11 games
Houston vs Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Houston's last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing Houston
Dallas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Houston
NFL
Armadillo's Write-up
Week 11
Thursday’s game
Commanders @ Eagles (-3.5)
Commanders (7-3)
Washington is 7-2 SU/ATS in its last nine games.
Rookie QB Daniels is 7-3 as an NFL starter.
Commanders are 4-1 in games decided by less than 7 points.
Last five games, Commanders are +6 in turnovers.
Team total: over 8-2
Opponents’ team total: under 5-5
Washington allowed 37-30-28 points in their three losses.
Last three games, Washington was outscored 44-25 in 2nd half.
Commanders are 2-0 ATS this year in games coming off a loss.
Commanders are 4-6 ATS in last 10 NFC East road games.
Last two games, Washington gave up 164-140 rushing yards.
Over is 5-2 in their last seven games.
Eagles (6-2)
Eagles won last five games, scoring 28-37-28-34 in last four.
Last five games, Eagles allowed 4 TD’s on 51 drives.
Philly outgained last four opponents, 1,802-1,004.
Team total: over 4-0 last four
Opponents’ team total: under 4-1 last five
Eagles outscored last four opponents 54-19 in first half.
Philly is 2-7-1 ATS in last 10 games as a home favorite.
Last three games, Eagles are +7 in turnovers.
QB Hurts is 43-22 as an NFL starter.
Eagles are 8-13 ATS in last 21 NFC East home games.
Under is 5-3 in their last eight games.
Eagles won 11 of last 13 series games.
Coammnders are 1-5 SU/3-3 ATS in last six visits to Philly.
Over is 7-2 in last nine series games.
Sunday’s games
Ravens (-3) @ Steelers
Ravens (7-3)
Baltimore is 7-1 SU/ATS in its last eight games.
Baltimore is 7-0 if they score 28+ points, 0-3 if they score less than 28
Ravens scored 35 touchdowns on their last 78 drives.
Ravens allowed 320 PY in four of last six games.
Team total: over 7-3
Opponents’ team total: over 8-2
Ravens are 10-5 ATS in last 15 games as a road favorite.
Over is 9-1 in Baltimore’s games this year.
QB Jackson is 68-26 as an NFL starter.
Ravens gave up 29+ points in three of their last four games.
Over is 5-0 in Baltimore road games this season.
Last 5 weeks, Ravens threw for 8.8+ yards/pass attempt four times.
Steelers (7-2)
Steelers won/covered their last four games.
Pittsburgh scored 37-26-28 points in Wilson’s first three starts.
Since 2014, Steelers are 12-5-2 ATS as a home underdog.
Team total: over 4-0 last three
Opponents’ team total: under 6-3
Steelers are 14-7-1 in its last 22 games coming off a win.
Pittsburgh is 11-4 ATS in last fifteen AFC North home games.
Steelers are 17-7-1 ATS in last 25 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Last four games, Pittsburgh outscored opponents 75-25 in 2nd half.
Over is 5-1 in their last six games.
Last three games, Steelers scored nine TD’s on 32 drives.
Pittsburgh won seven of last eight series games.
Ravens are 1-3 SU/2-2 ATS in last four visits to Pittsburgh.
Under is 6-0 in last six series games.
Jaguars @ Lions (-13)
Jaguars (2-8)
Jaguars lost last three games, by 3-5-5 points.
Jaguars covered their last four games.
Jaguars have 11 turnovers in last six games (minus-4)
Team total: over 3-1 last four
Opponents’ team total: over 4-2 last six
Jaguars are 5-2 ATS last seven games as a road underdog.
Jaguars lost to Minnesota, despite not giving up a TD.
Backup QB Jones is 18-26 as an NFL starter.
Five of their last seven games went over the total.
Jaguars are 12-31 ATS in last 41 games vs NFC foes (3-1 TY).
AFC South underdogs are 7-10 ATS in non-divisional games.
Lions (8-1)
Detroit won its last seven games (6-1 ATS).
Last three games, Lions outscored opponents 43-11 in 2nd half.
Detroit won LW, despite Goff throwing five INT’s.
Opponents have converted 19 of last 61 third down plays.
Team total: over 4-2 last six
Opponents’ team total: under 6-3
Under Campbell, Lions are 12-5 ATS as a home favorite.
Detroit is 11-6 ATS in last 17 games vs AFC opponents.
Under Campbell, Detroit is 19-9 ATS in games coming off a win.
Lions have outscored opponents 47-13 in last 2:00 of each half.
QB Goff is 78-55-1 as an NFL starter, 34-25-1 with Detroit.
NFC North favorites are 14-9 ATS in non-divisional games.
Lions won/covered last four series games.
Jaguars lost 40-14/26-19 in last two visits to Detroit.
Over is 4-2 in last six meetings.
Rams (-5) @ Patriots
Rams (4-5)
Rams won three of their last four games.
Rams are 1-5 scoring less than 26 points.
Seven of their nine games were decided by 8 or fewer points.
Last week, Rams didn’t score a TD (tried FG on last 6 drives)
Team total: under 6-3
Opponents’ team total: under 4-0-1 last five
Rams are 1-3 SU on road TY (only win in OT at Seattle)
Last four games, Rams are +4 in turnovers.
Rams are 6-11-1 ATS in last 18 games vs AFC opponents.
Rams are 11-14-2 ATS last 27 games coming off a loss.
Under is 4-1 in their last five games.
NFC West favorites are 4-7-1 ATS in non-divisional games.
Patriots (3-7)
Patriots won two of their last three games (3-0 ATS).
Last three games, New England outscored foes 38-22 in 2nd half.
Patriots were held under 300 TY in eight of ten games.
Team total: under 5-3 last eight
Opponents’ team total: under 3-0 last three
NE is 10-20-1 ATS in last 31 games as an underdog.
Patriots are 32-46 since Tom Brady left town.
Patriots are 5-7-1 ATS in last 13 games coming off a win.
Rookie QB Maye is 2-3 as an NFL starter.
Over is 3-1 in their home games.
AFC East underdogs are 5-9-1 ATS in non-divisional games.
New England won five of last six series games.
Rams lost their last three visits to Foxboro.
Last three meetings stayed under the total.
Browns @ Saints (-1.5)
Browns (2-7)
Cleveland lost six of its last seven games.
Browns are 1-3 SU/2-2 ATS on road this season.
Cleveland scored 18 or fewer points in 8 of 9 games.
Browns are 2-7 ATS in last nine post-bye games.
Team total: under 8-1
Opponents’ team total: over 5-4
Browns are 8-12-1 ATS last 21 games as a road underdog.
Last three games, Browns ran ball for 77-80-79 yards.
Cleveland is 13-6-1 ATS in last 20 games coming off a loss.
Cleveland allowed 20+ points in eight of nine games.
AFC North underdogs are 7-4 ATS in non-divisional games.
Browns are 6-6 ATS in last 12 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Under is 6-2 in their last eight games.
Saints (3-7)
New Orleans snapped 7-game losing skid LW, first game with interim coach.
Saints are 2-6 against spread in last eight games.
Last five games, New Orleans was outscored 94-25 in second half.
Team total: under 3-1 last four
Opponents’ team total: over 6-1 last seven
Saints are 2-3 SU at home TY, losing by 3-14-13 points.
Saints are 7-10 ATS last 17 games as a home favorite.
New Orleans is 8-15-2 ATS last 25 games coming off a win.
Saints are 4-9 ATS in last 13 games vs AFC teams.
QB Carr is 75-92 as an NFL starter.
Over is 3-2 in their last five games.
Saints won last two series games, 17-10/21-19
Browns are 2-1 SU/3-0 ATS in last three visits to Bourbon Street.
Over is 3-3 in last six meetings.
Colts @ Jets (-4)
Colts (4-6)
Indy lost last three games, by 3-8-10 points (5-2-1 ATS last eight)
Colts are 1-5 giving up 20+ points.
Colts have played eight games decided by 6 or fewer points.
Team total: under 5-3-2
Opponents’ team total: under 4-1 last five
QB Richardson (5-5 as NFL starter) is back as the starter.
Colts are 7-8-1 ATS last 16 games as a road underdog.
Indy is 7-5 ATS in last 12 games coming off a loss.
Colts converted 13 of last 48 third down plays.
Four of last five Colt games stayed under the total.
AFC South road underdogs are 3-8 ATS in non-divisional games.
Jets (3-7)
Jets are 1-6 SU/ATS in last seven games.
Jets are 3-1 if they allow 17 or less points, 0-6 if they allow 23+.
Jets are 0-6 scoring less than 21 points.
Team total: under 6-1 last seven
Opponents’ team total: over 5-1 last six
Jets are 5-10 ATS last 15 games as a home favorite.
Jets are 6-10 ATS last 16 games coming off a loss.
Under is 3-1 in their home games.
Jets are 1-4 SU/ATS since their coaching change.
Jets converted 11 of last 25 third down plays.
AFC East home favorites are 3-5 ATS in non-divisional games.
Colts won three of last four series games.
Teams haven’t met since 2021.
Colts are 2-3 SU/1-4 ATS in last five series games..
Average total in last four meetings: 61.3 (over 3-1).
Vikings (-6) @ Titans
Vikings (7-2)
Minnesota won its last two games, giving up 13-7 points.
Vikings allowed 31-30 points in their two losses.
Last four games, Vikings were outscored 49-27 in first half.
Vikings are 9-3-1 ATS in last 13 games coming off a win.
Team total: over 6-3
Opponents’ team total: under 6-3
QB Darnold is 28-37 as an NFL starter, 7-2 with Vikings.
Minnesota is 6-2-2 ATS in last ten games as road favorite.
Minnesota has 19 takeaways in nine games (+3 turnovers).
Vikings are 11-6-2 ATS in last 19 games vs AFC opponents.
NFC North favorites are 14-9 ATS in non-divisional games.
Vikings are 4-1 SU/3-2 ATS on the road this season.
Titans (2-7)
Titans scored 17 or fewer points in their losses; 31-20 points in wins.
Tennessee is minus-11 in turnovers, with six takeaways.
Titans have trailed in only three of nine games at halftime.
Team total: under 7-2
Opponents’ team total: over 4-3-2
Tennessee is 14-8-1 ATS in last 23 games as a home dog.
Tennessee has been outscored 139-66 in second half.
QB Levis is 4-11 as an NFL starter.
Tennessee is 1-5 ATS in last six games coming off a loss.
AFC South home teams are 7-6 ATS in non-divisional games.
Minnesota is 4-2 SU/5-1 ATS in last six series games.
Vikings split their last two visits to Nashville.
Favorites are 4-1 ATS in last five meetings.
Over is 4-2 in last six meetings.
Raiders @ Dolphins (-7.5)
Raiders (2-7)
Raiders are 0-5 SU/2-3 ATS in last five games
Raiders have 19 turnovers in nine games (minus-14).
Raiders are 1-6 SU/1-5-1 ATS last seven post-bye games.
Team total: over 5-4
Opponents’ team total: over 6-3
Raiders are 20-14 ATS last 34 games as a road underdog.
Raiders haven’t led a game at halftime since Week 1.
QB Minshew is 17-27 as an NFL starter.
Over is 6-2 in their last eight games.
Last six games, Raiders averaged 5.6 or fewer yards/pass attempt.
AFC West road underdogs are 6-3 ATS in non-division games.
Dolphins (3-6)
Short week for Dolphins after their win in LA Monday night.
Miami allowed 17-10-15 points in its wins, 31-24-16-31-28-30 in losses.
Miami was 21-36 on 3rd down last three games, with Tagovailoa back at QB.
Tagovailoa is 34-23 as an NFL starter.
Team total: under 6-2-1
Opponents’ team total: under 5-4
Miami is 0-4 ATS as a home favorite this year.
Last four weeks, Dolphins outscored foes 43-19 in 1st half, but went 1-3.
Dolphins are 26-19 ATS in last 45 games coming off a win.
Miami is 2-3 ATS TY in games decided by 6 or fewer points.
Under is 3-2 in their home games.
AFC East home favorites are 3-5 ATS in non-divisional games.
Dolphins won 10 of last 13 series games.
Raiders are 1-5 SU/2-3-1 ATS in last six visits to Miami.
Over is 6-1 in last seven meetings.
Packers (-6.5) @ Bears
Packers (6-3)
Packers won four of last five games, scoring 25.2 ppg.
Green Bay’s three losses were 34-29/31-29/14-24.
Green Bay outscored last six foes 94-46 in second half.
Team total: over 5-4
Opponents’ team total: under 6-3
Green Bay is 3-10-1 ATS in last 14 games as a road favorite.
Packers are 9-6 ATS in last 15 NFC North road games.
Last two games, Green Bay gained 422-411 total yards.
Under is 4-1 in their last five games.
Green Bay is 3-5-1 ATS in last nine post-bye games.
Last four games, Packers were outscored 40-9 in last 2:00 of half.
Bears (4-5)
Bears lost last three games, scoring 15-9-3 points.
Bears fired their offensive coordinator Monday.
Last two games, Bears were outscored 14-0 in second half.
Team total: under 5-3-1
Opponents’ team total: under 7-2
Under Eberflus, Bears are 11-8-1 ATS at home.
Under Eberflus, Bears are 6-4 ATS as a home underdog.
Chicago is 2-10 ATS in last 12 NFC North home games.
Under Eberflus, Chicago is 11-13-2 ATS in games coming off a loss.
Last four games, Chicago was +8 in turnovers (10-2).
Last six games, Bears are 18 of 71 on third down.
Green Bay won last 11 series games, covered last 10.
Packers are 8-1 SU/7-2 ATS in last nine visits to Chicago.
Over is 5-3 in last eight meetings.
Falcons @ Broncos (-2.5)
Falcons (6-4)
Atlanta won five of its last seven games SU.
Falcons were held to 10-17-14-17 points in their losses.
Three of Falcons’ last four games stayed under the total.
Team total: under 3-1 last four
Opponents’ team total: over 4-2-1 last seven
Atlanta is 3-1 SU/ATS on road this season.
Falcons are 14-13 ATS in last 27 games as a road underdog.
Falcons are 3-5 ATS last eight games coming off a loss.
Falcons are 7-14 ATS last 21 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
QB Cousins is 82-75-2 as an NFL starter.
Falcons are 3-8 ATS in last 11 games vs AFC teams.
NFC South road underdogs are 6-4 ATS in non-divisional games.
Broncos (5-5)
Denver lost its last two games, outscored 23-0 in 2nd half.
Last three weeks, Broncos converted 24-44 third down plays.
Denver is 4-0 if they score more than 20 points, 1-5 if they score 20 or less.
Team total: over 5-4-1
Opponents’ team total: under 6-4
Denver is 2-0 ATS as a home favorite this year.
Since 2015, Denver is 16-26-4 ATS as a road underdog
In wins, Broncos are +5 in turnovers; in losses, minus-6.
Under Payton, Denver is 6-6 ATS coming off a loss.
Five of Broncos’ last six games went over the total.
AFC West home favorites are 9-4 ATS in non-division games.
Atlanta won four of last five meetings.
Falcons won two of last three visits to Denver.
Under is 3-1 in last four series games.
Seahawks @ 49ers (-6.5)
Seahawks (4-5)
Seahawks lost five of last six games, after a 3-0 start.
Seattle allowed 42-29-36-31-26 points in losses, 20 or less in wins.
Seahawks are 0-4 ATS last four post-bye games.
Team total: over 7-2
Opponents’ team total: over 7-2
QB Smith is 34-42 as an NFL starter, 22-23 with Seattle.
Last two games, Seahawks were outscored 40-14 in second half.
Seattle is 5-7 ATS in last 12 NFC West road games.
Over is 6-3 in their games this season.
Seattle turned ball over nine times in last four games (minus-4)
49ers (5-4)
49ers won their last two games, by 6-3 points.
49ers held last two opponents to 292-215 yards.
Last two games, 49ers outgained opponents, 882-507.
Team total: under 5-4
Opponents’ team total: over 6-2-1
49ers are 13-8 ATS last 21 games as a home favorite.
49ers are 2-4 when they run ball for less than 180 yards.
QB Purdy is 26-9 as an NFL starter.
San Francisco is +7 in turnovers in wins, minus-4 in losses.
Over is 5-2 in their last seven games.
49ers are 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS in last five meetings.
Seahawks are 0-3 SU/1-2 ATS in last three visits to Santa Clara.
Under is 4-1-1 in last six series games.
Chiefs @ Bills (-2.5)
Chiefs (9-0)
Chiefs are 9-0, winning last three games by 7-6-2 points.
Last three games, Chiefs were held to 87.7 rushing yards/game.
Kansas City is 9-0 despite being minus-6 in turnovers.
Team total: over 4-1 last five
Opponents’ team total: under 6-3
In his career, Mahomes is 12-1-1 ATS as an underdog.
Chiefs are 12-19 ATS in last 31 games coming off a win.
QB Mahomes is 99-25 as an NFL starter.
Chiefs are 8-5 ATS last 13 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Last seven games, Chiefs are 60-108 on third down.
Chiefs have outscored opponents 109-67 in second half.
Five of Chiefs’ last seven games stayed under the total.
Bills (8-2)
Bills won their last five games (4-1 ATS)
Buffalo gave up 35-23 points in its two losses (7-0 allow less than 23).
Buffalo outscored last five opponents 98-40 in second half.
Last six games, Bills are +8 in turnovers (12-4).
Team total: over 8-2
Opponents’ team total: under 6-4
Buffalo is 9-10-1 ATS in last 20 games as a home favorite.
Bills are 28-20-1 ATS in last 49 games coming off a win.
QB Allen is 76-37 as an NFL starter.
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Bills are 17-5-1 ATS in last 23 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Last five Buffalo games went over the total.
AFC East home favorites are 3-5 ATS in non-divisional games.
Road team won last four series games.
Chiefs won/covered their last four visits to Buffalo.
Over is 3-2 in last five meetings.
Bengals @ Chargers (-1.5)
Bengals (4-6)
Bengals gave up 35+ points in their last four losses.
Bengals are 4-1 if they allow 24 or fewer points, 0-5 if they allow more than 24.
Over is 7-2 in their last nine games.
Team total: over 6-4
Opponents’ team total: over 6-3-1
Bengals are 8-3-1 ATS in last 12 games as a road underdog.
Bengals won three of last four road games SU.
Cincinnati is 21-11-1 ATS in last 33 games coming off a loss.
Bengals are 4-7-1 ATS in last 12 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in games decided by fewer than 7 points.
QB Burrow is 38-30-1 as an NFL starter.
AFC North road teams are 11-4 ATS in non-division games.
Chargers (6-3)
Chargers won/covered their last three games.
LA scored 22-26-23-26-27-27 points in wins, 10-10-15 in losses.
Last six games, Chargers outscored foes 108-36 in 1st half.
Team total: over 6-3
Opponents’ team total: under 6-2-1
Chargers are 11-9-1 ATS last 20 games as home favorites.
Last five games, opponents are 16-60 on third down.
Chargers are 16-18-4 ATS in last 38 games coming off a win.
QB Herbert is 36-36 as an NFL starter.
Under is 7-2 in their first nine games.
AFC West favorites are 9-4 ATS in non-divisional games.
Chargers won last three series games.
Bengals covered last five road series games.
Under is 5-1 in last five meetings.
Monday’s game
Texans (-7.5) @ Cowboys
Texans (6-4)
Houston lost 3 of last 4 games, all decided by 4 or fewer points.
Texans have five wins by 6 or fewer points.
Last five games, Texans are 2-3, despite being +10 in turnovers.
Houston lost 26-23 LW, after leading 23-7 at halftime.
Team total: under 7-3
Opponents’ team total: under 4-1-1 last six
Texans are 2-3 SU/1-4 ATS on road this year
Houston is 8-4 ATS in last 12 games coming off a loss.
2nd-year QB Stroud is 16-11 as an NFL starter.
Last three weeks, Texans were outscored 60-19 in second half.
Texans are 7-15-2 ATS in last 24 games vs NFC opponents.
AFC South favorites are 4-6 ATS in non-divisional games.
Cowboys (3-6)
Dallas lost last four games, giving up 47-30-27-34 points.
Cowboys are 0-6 when they allow more than 17 points.
Last four games, Cowboys gave up 16 TD’s on 42 drives.
Dallas is 11-8 ATS in last 19 games coming off a loss.
Team total: under 5-1 last six
Opponents’ team total: over 5-4
Since 2021, Dallas is 1-4 ATS as a home underdog.
Backup QB Rush is 5-2 as an NFL starter (most starts, 2022).
Cowboys averaged 1.5 yards/pass attempt last week.
Cowboys allowed 2.7/6.8/4.3 yards/pass attempt in their wins.
Over is 3-1 in Dallas home games this season.
Dallas is 8-5 ATS in last 13 games vs AFC opponents.
Dallas is 4-1 SU/3-2 ATS in last five series games.
Texans lost last three visits to Dallas, by 28-4-3 points.
Five of last six meetings stayed under the total.
Top NFL Things To Know
Here We Go Again
Chiefs, Mahomes as Undefeated Underdogs
Patrick Mahomes is 11-3 straight-up as an underdog (12-1-1 ATS). That is the best straight-up (SU) mark as a 'dog in the Super Bowl era for a QB with at least 10 starts. Mahomes’ only ATS loss as an underdog came in 2022 at home against Josh Allen and the Bills, losing 24-20 as a 2.5-point underdog.
This is just the fourth time in the Super Bowl era that a team 9-0 SU or better is listed as an underdog.
Underdogs Rule
Week 10 Outlier
Underdogs finished 11-3 ATS in Week 10. We haven't had an NFL week where 11 or more dogs covered with three or fewer losing ATS since 2017.
Detroit Lions Making History
Lions Peak Expectations
The Lions are currently 13-point favorites vs. Jaguars this weekend. Detroit hasn’t closed as this high a favorite since December 1995 as a 13.5-point favorite against, of course, the Jaguars in their inaugural season.
Take the Under
The Sunday Night Football Trend
Sunday Night Football unders are 8-2 this season. Since the beginning of 2022, they're 35-13 (73%) to the under, going under the total by 4.5 points per game.
Here are the under records in night games by day:
- Sunday: 35-13
- Monday: 30-21
- Saturday: 7-4
- Friday: 0-1
- Thursday: 21-23
Which Teams Will Prove Dominance?
Great Week 11 Matchups
Chiefs-Bills
Ravens–Steelers
Commanders–Eagles
For the first time since 2020 and the second time in a decade, we have three matchups in which both teams have a win percentage of 70% or higher in Week 11 or later.
*GREEN BAY has won the last 10 SU and ATS vs. Chicago
System Match: PLAY GREEN BAY (-5.5 at CHI)
NFL Streaks Betting System #7: NFL road teams that have lost their last three games outright and are facing a team with more than a 50% winning percentage better than them are 13-73 SU but 57-29 ATS (66.3%) as underdogs of 5.5-points or more since 2006.
System Match (PLAY): JACKSONVILLE (+13 at DET)
The last 23 Monday Night Football games featuring home underdogs have seen Under the total go 18-4-1 (81.8%) as well, games producing just 37.3 PPG.
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total in HOU-DAL (o/u at 42)
NFL Streaks Betting System #15: NFL teams playing at home on Thursdays after winning at least their last four games outright have kept the momentum going with a 13-1 SU and 11-3 ATS (78.6%) record in their last 14 tries.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-3.5 vs. WAS)
* NY JETS’ Aaron Rodgers is 12-1 Under the total vs. teams with a better record since 2014
System Match: PLAY UNDER in IND-NYJ (o/u at 43.5)
Play road favorites against divisional opponents coming out of their bye week (Record: 33-16 ATS since 2002, 67.3%, +15.4 Units, 31.4% ROI, Grade 68)
System Match (PLAY): GREEN BAY (-6 at CHI)
NFL teams coming off a game in which they turned the ball over five times or more have continued to flounder, going 15-15 SU but 7-22-1 ATS (24.1%) when favored in the next contest since 2012.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (-13 vs. JAX)
* WASHINGTON’s Dan Quinn is on a 0-10 SU and 1-9 ATS skid when coming off an upset loss
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON (+3.5 at PHI)
Since the start of the 2020 season, rookie starting quarterbacks have taken care of business in the home favorite role, going 35-10 SU and 32-12-1 ATS (72.7%).
System Match: PLAY DENVER (-2.5 vs. ATL)
* KANSAS CITY is 15-3 SU and 17-1 ATS in its last 18 games as road underdog
System Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY (+2 at BUF)