NFL Betting Angles & Odds

NFL Dunkel Week 18

NFL

Week 18

Trend Report

Pittsburgh @ Baltimore
Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing Baltimore
Pittsburgh is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Baltimore
Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

Houston @ Indianapolis
Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Houston's last 14 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 8 games when playing Indianapolis
Indianapolis
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 6 games

Tampa Bay @ Carolina
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Carolina
Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Carolina's last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Carolina's last 10 games

Cleveland @ Cincinnati
Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cleveland's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Cleveland's last 7 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
Cincinnati
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Cincinnati's last 7 games when playing at home against Cleveland
Cincinnati is 12-3 SU in its last 15 games at home

Minnesota @ Detroit
Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Minnesota's last 7 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Detroit
Detroit is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Detroit's last 7 games when playing Minnesota

NY Jets @ New England
NY Jets
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Jets's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Jets's last 5 games when playing New England
New England
New England is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing NY Jets
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing NY Jets

Atlanta @ New Orleans
Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New Orleans
New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Orleans's last 6 games when playing at home against Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of New Orleans's last 9 games at home

Jacksonville @ Tennessee
Jacksonville
Jacksonville is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
Tennessee
Tennessee is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Jacksonville
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games when playing at home against Jacksonville

Seattle @ Arizona
Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Seattle's last 7 games on the road
Seattle is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Arizona
Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games

Chicago @ Green Bay
Chicago
Chicago is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games on the road
Green Bay
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Chicago
Green Bay is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Chicago

Kansas City @ LA Chargers
Kansas City
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers
Kansas City is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games when playing LA Chargers
LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of LA Chargers's last 14 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 7 games at home

Denver @ Las Vegas
Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 6 games when playing on the road against Las Vegas
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games on the road
Las Vegas
Las Vegas is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Denver
Las Vegas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Denver

Philadelphia @ NY Giants
Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 7 games on the road
NY Giants
NY Giants is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of NY Giants's last 11 games when playing at home against Philadelphia

LA Rams @ San Francisco
LA Rams
LA Rams is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
LA Rams is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
San Francisco
San Francisco is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing LA Rams
San Francisco is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing LA Rams

Dallas @ Washington
Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games on the road
Washington
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing at home against Dallas

Buffalo @ Miami
Buffalo
Buffalo is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing Miami
Buffalo is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Miami
Miami is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
Miami is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games at home

Michael Lombardi: The rules for betting the final week of the NFL regular season

It seemed like yesterday we were preparing for Week 1 of the NFL season with preseason data, free agent transactions and past performances of the coaches to help our handicapping. We didn’t have to worry about motivation as all 32 teams were highly engaged and eager to show their stuff. Eighteen weeks later, we face a similar challenge of handicapping games, without the universal belief everyone is engaged toward winning. So many different variables make handicapping Week 18 the hardest week of the season.
One thing we can agree on is teams that cannot improve their playoff position will rest starters. Unlike the preseason, teams cannot rest everyone; the rosters are not at 80 players. Most starters will have to play, as only seven players are allowed on the inactive list. This means for teams like Baltimore, San Francisco, Cleveland and Kansas City, we won’t see their starting quarterback or any key player who has a slight injury.
Everyone else is fair game and will play with the motivation to play well. No one will back off. Baltimore has nothing to play for, but Baltimore loves to win, and with Tyler Huntley under center and their disdain for the Steelers, the Ravens absent most of their key players will play hard and want to win. Which leads us to our first rule of handicapping Week 18,
Rule 1: Don’t assume a team won’t try.
All teams will try or play to their normal capabilities. No one will tank. For some reason, people who don’t understand how the NFL works and how competitive coaches and teams are, believe tanking is part of the conversation this week. Tanking is for the NBA, not the NFL.
You cannot get a coach who is on the hot seat to tank. Just ask the Texans last year when Lovie Smith was determined to win his last game as their coach. Everyone was up in arms because Smith won the game, hurting the Texans' draft position, when 12 months later, the Texans ended up with a great quarterback by picking second, not first. Fans make too much of the draft order as if teams are so skilled at drafting that there won’t be any mistakes or mis-evolutions. Remember, Lamar Jackson went 32nd overall. Patrick Mahomes went 10th. Was tanking needed to acquire an MVP quarterback? Nope.
Rule 2: If a coach is certain to come back for another season, but his team isn’t in contention, you can count on them playing, preparing, and trying to win.
Use their power ranking as if it were Week 8. Sean Payton of the Broncos will want to use the last game of the year against the Raiders to springboard his 2024 planning. How a player prepares for a meaningless game is a great indicator for Payton when deciding if the player fits for the upcoming season. Payton will let everyone know this game means something for their future. The Broncos might be eliminated from contention, but they won’t be eliminated from wanting to play their best. As for their opponent, the Raiders, this is a little harder handicap.

When dealing with a coach with an uncertain job status, handling their motivation is tricky, especially when it comes to an interim situation. Antonio Pierce isn’t a sure thing to return, the assistant coaches all know their job status is in question, and many players will be looking to cash in on their incentives. You can bet that the first quarter will consist of the Raider offense looking to get Davante Adams the ball, as he has 98 catches and wants to be over 100. Will the Raiders prepare and play with great effort and intensity? That isn’t a sure thing, which leads us to our third rule.

Rule 3: Avoid betting teams with interim coaches.
Having an interim coach is like having a substitute teacher running the class, especially if the owner isn’t willing to publicly back the coach. Pierce has lobbied hard for the job and won four games, but his lack of aggressiveness in Indy last week makes everyone unsure how owner Mark Davis will react. Pierce spent a long time meeting with Davis after the game before his press conference, which isn’t a good sign for his future. We know Giff Smith isn’t coming back for the Chargers, and we also know they will rest their players, so even though the Chiefs have nothing to play for and won’t play Mahomes, can you count on the Chargers as a slight favorite?
A perfect example of not betting interim coaches with no chance of returning happened in Jacksonville last week when the Panthers laid a big goose egg. Owner David Tepper was furious, throwing a drink at a Jaguars fan, which looked bad for him and even worse for every member of their organization. Yes, the Panthers seem to play better at home, but this week is the last week of school. Do you think Chris Tabor, the interim coach, can get his players to focus on the Bucs and not what will happen? I highly doubt it, but it doesn’t make me want to run to the window and bet the Bucs at -5. This leads me to rule number four.
Rule 4: Teams that have everything to play for play tend to play tight and struggle to handle the pressure.
Last year, the Packers needed to beat the Lions at home to become a playoff team. Instead, they played poorly and lost. There is a tendency for players and coaches to overemphasize the importance of the game and discuss openly the implications, which then makes everyone scared to cut it loose. The Lions fit rule number 2 and went out and beat the Packers, who couldn’t hold the lead late in the game. The Lions won in Green Bay and used the game as a playoff-type experience, which helped them this season.
Tampa was bad last week vs. the Saints at home, so don’t assume they will be great this week, as the pressure of the moment can cause poor play. This game looks too easy on paper, and we all know that easy-looking games are never easy.
Rule 5: Teams that have built momentum want to maintain momentum.
Last year, Cincinnati and Minnesota had an outside chance to gain the second seed going into Week 18. Both teams were playing well and had great momentum going into the final week. Cincinnati thought they would play the Ravens in the Wildcard round the following week, which didn’t make them hold back, and they covered the nine-point spread. The Vikings traveled to Chicago and easily covered the seven-point spread. Both teams could have rested and regrouped for the playoffs. They both understood that playing well and maintaining a performance standard far outweighed taking their foot off the gas.
The Rams fit this profile. They didn’t play as well in New York against the Giants last week, and still need a win to secure the sixth seed, so playing well against the 49ers is critical. If they win, in all probability, they face the Lions in Detroit. If they lose, they might have to go to Dallas. For me, this is an easy one, keep playing well, keep the momentum in your favor and win the game.
Best of luck to your handicapping Week 18. Remember, trust what you know, not what you assume, and let it rip.

NFL
Armadillo's Write-up

Week 18

Sunday’s games
Falcons (7-9) @ Saints (8-8)
— Falcons can win NFC South if they win and Bucs lose.
— Falcons lost three of their last four games.
— Atlanta scored 28-23-29-17 points in Heinicke’s four starts.
— Heinicke is 13-15-1 as an NFL starter, 1-3 this year.
— Falcons are 26-58 (44.8%) on 3rd down in Heinicke’s starts.
— Atlanta is 6-10-1 ATS in last 17 games coming off a loss.
— underdogs covered nine of Atlanta’s last 12 games.
— Atlanta is 13-11 ATS in last 24 games as a road dog (1-2 TY).
— Falcons are 3-10-1 ATS TY in games with spread of 3 or less points.
— Last two games, Falcons were 9-26 (34.6%) on third down.
— Under is 4-2 in last six Atlanta games.
— Team total: under 8-7-1. Opponents’ team total: under 7-7-2

— New Orleans needs this win and some help to make playoffs.
— Saints won three of their last four games SU.
— Last three games, opponents are 8-36 on third down.
— Saints are 8-8, but have been an underdog in only 4 of 14 games.
— Saints outscored last five opponents 73-38 in second half.
— New Orleans is 7-3 scoring 20+ points, 1-5 scoring less than 20.
— Saints are 4-9-1 ATS in last 14 games coming off a loss.
— New Orleans is 5-8 ATS last 13 games as a home favorite (2-4 TY).
— New Orleans scored 15 TD’s on its last 54 drives.
— under is 3-1 in Saints’ last four games.
— Saints are 1-4 ATS in last five NFC South home games.
— Team total: under 8-8. Opponents’ team total: over 8-8

— Falcons (+2) beat New Orleans 24-15 at home in Week 12.
— Atlanta ran ball for 228 yards in that game.
— Saints won eight of last eleven series games.
— Falcons covered three of last four visits to the Superdome.
— Under is 6-3 in last nine meetings.
— Underdogs are 6-3-1 ATS in NFC South divisional games.

Browns (11-5) @ Bengals (8-7)
— Driskel will start at QB, Browns’ 5th starting QB this season.
— Driskel is 1-9 as an NFL starter (1-4 with Bengals in 2018).
— Browns have already clinched a playoff spot; Flacco will rest.
— Cleveland won/covered its last four games, by 4-3-14-17 points.
— Browns are 6-9-1 ATS in last 16 games as road underdogs (1-2 TY).
— Cleveland is 9-3 SU in last 11 games (7-2 ATS in last nine)
— Last seven weeks, Browns are 32-106 (30.2%) on third down.
— Last four weeks, Cleveland have seven TD plays of 29+ yards.
— Browns are 9-14-1 ATS in last 24 games coming off a win (5-5 TY).
— Browns are 8-0 giving up less than 24 points, 3-5 allowing 24+.
— Opponents have converted only 64-219 (29.2%) third down plays.
— over is 5-1 in last six Cleveland games.
— AFC North favorites are 18-10 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: over 10-3-2. Opponents’ team total: over 8-7

— Bengals lost last two games, scoring 11-17 points.
— Cincinnati was eliminated from playoff race last week.
— Last three weeks, Cincy was outscored 44-20 in first half.
— Over is 6-2 in Bengals’ last eight games.
— Bengals are 6-2 giving up 20 or less points, 2-6 allowing more than 2o.
— Cincinnati is 8-4-1 ATS last 13 games as a home favorite (3-3-1 TY).
— Cincinnati is 4-6-1 ATS as a favorite this year.
— Bengals are 2-4-1 ATS this year in games coming off a loss.
— Backup QB Browning is completing 69.9% of passes (9 TD’s, 6 INTs)
— Browning is 3-3 as an NFL starter.
— Six of Bengals’ last seven games went over total.
— Team total: under 10-6. Opponents’ team total: over 8-8

— Browns (+2) beat Cincinnati 24-3 at home in the season opener.
— Cleveland ran for 206 yards; Bengals had only 152 total yards.
— Cleveland won nine of last 11 series games.
— Browns are 2-6 ATS in last eight visits to Cincinnati.
— Over is 6-2-2 in last ten meetings.
— underdogs are 7-3 ATS in AFC North divisional games.

Jets (6-10) @ Patriots (4-12)
— Jets split their last four games, scoring 30-0-31-20 points.
— Last five games, Jets are minus-8 in turnovers (4-12)
— This season, Jets are 1-4 ATS as a road underdog.
— Jets are 1-8 when they score less than 20 points.
— Under Saleh, Jets are 13-17 ATS as a coming off a loss.
— Under Saleh, Jets are 8-11-2 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less.
— Last 12 games, Jets converted 47-191 (24.6%) third down plays.
— QB Siemian is 14-18 as an NFL starter, for four different teams.
— Last three games, Jets were outscored 30-6 in second half.
— over is 3-1 in their last four games.
— Jets were outscored 62-6 in first two AFC East road games TY.
— Team total: under 9-6-1. Opponents’ team total: under 9-7

— Patriots split their last four games, after a 1-8 skid.
— Five of NE’s last six losses were by six or fewer points.
— Patriots are 1-3 ATS as a favorite this season.
— NE is 7-14-1 ATS in last 22 games with spread of 3 or less.
— New England is 4-6 ATS in games coming off a loss TY.
— Patriots are 3-5 ATS in last eight AFC East home games.
— New England is minus-10 in turnovers this year (+38 from 2019-22).
— Since Brady left, NE is 29-37 SU in regular season, 0-1 in playoffs.
— In his career, Belichick is 84-102 without Brady.
— Zappe is 4-3 as an NFL starting QB, Mac James 18-26.
— Last four New England games went over the total.
— Team total: under 11-5. Opponents’ team total: over 9-6-1

— Patriots (-2) beat Jets 15-10 in New Jersey in Week 3.
— New England outgained Jets 358-171 in that game.
— Patriots won their last 16 games SU against the Jets.
— Jets are 1-6 ATS in last seven visits to Foxboro.
— Last four meetings stayed under the total.
— Favorites are 7-3 ATS in AFC East divisional games.

Jaguars (9-7) @ Titans (5-11)
— Jacksonville wins AFC South if they win this game.
— Jaguars lost four of their last four games.
— QB Lawrence is banged up (concussion/shoulder; check status)
— Jaguars are 5-2 ATS last seven games as road favorites (3-1 TY)
— Jaguars are 11-7 ATS in last 18 games coming off win (5-2 TY).
— Last four weeks, Jaguars were outscored 44-16 in first half.
— Jaguars are minus-11 in turnovers in their losses (+5 in wins).
— Jaguars are 4-1 ATS in last five AFC South road games.
— Pederson is 65-55-1 as a head coach (5-3 in playoff games).
— Lawrence is 20-29 as an NFL starter; backup Beathard is 3-10.
— Jaguars’ last three games stayed under the total.
— Team total: over 8-7-1. Opponents’ team total: over 8-8

— Titans lost seven of their last nine games.
— Last three games, Titans scored 12 ppg.
— Check status on which QB starts for Tennessee.
— Tennessee is 13-7 ATS last 20 games as home underdogs (3-2 TY)
— Titans are 1-4 ATS in last five AFC South home games.
— Tennessee fired its special teams coach last month.
— Titans are 4-1 scoring 27+ points, 1-10 scoring 17 or less.
— Tennessee is 16-14-1 ATS in last 30 games coming off a loss (4-5 TY).
— Titans are minus-8 in turnovers (10-18) so far this season.
— QB Tannehill is 82-73 as an NFL starter; Levis is 3-6.
— Under is 10-4 in Tennessee’s last 13 games.
— Team total: under 11-5. Opponents’ team total: over 8-5-3

— Jaguars (-6.5) beat Tennessee 34-14 at home in Week 11.
— Jacksonville won last three series games, scoring 30.7 ppg.
— Jaguars are 2-6 ATS in last eight visits to Nashville.
— Over is 4-2 in last six meetings.
— Road teams are 6-4 ATS in AFC South divisional games.

Vikings (7-9) @ Lions (11-5)
— 4th-string QB Mullens (5-15 as NFL starter) gets nod here.
— Mullens has completed 67.3% of passes (5 TD’s, 6 INTs)
— He is Vikings’ 4th starting QB in 16 games this year.
— Vikings lost five of last six games (the win was 3-0).
— Last two games, Minnesota is minus-5 in turnovers (1-6)
— Minnesota is 6-8 in one-score games this year (11-0 LY)
— Vikings are 1-6 when they allow 27+ points.
— Vikings are 10-15-1 ATS in last 26 games coming off a loss
— Vikings have won field position in 2 of 16 games this season.
— Over is 3-0 in Minnesota’s last three games.
— Vikings are 6-5 ATS in last 11 NFC North road games (2-0 TY).
— Team total: over 8-8. Opponents’ team total: under 9-6-1

— Last week, Lions clinched their first division title since 1993.
— Next week, Detroit has its first home playoff game in 30 years.
— Win can help their seeding; regulars figure to play.
— Under Campbell, Detroit is 8-4 ATS as road underdog (4-3 TY).
— Under Campbell, Detroit is 16-9 ATS coming off a loss (4-0 TY).
— Under Campbell, Lions are 34-15-1 ATS overall.
— Under Campbell, Lions are 6-2 ATS in NFC North home games.
— Last three games, Detroit is +4 in turnovers (7-3)
— Last eight games, Lions ran ball for 155.4 yards/game.
— Lions are 8-1 when they score 26+ points, 3-4 when they don’t.
— Detroit has 12 TD’s on its last 29 drives.
— Goff is 67-53-1 as an NFL starter, 23-22-1 with the Lions.
— over is 9-4 in their last 13 games.
— Team total: over 8-8. Opponents’ team total: over 9-7

— Lions (-2.5) won 30-24 in Minnesota two weeks ago.
— Vikings ran ball for only 17 yards, were minus-3 in turnovers.
— Minnesota is 8-3 in last 11 series games (2-3 in last five).
— Vikings are 1-2 SU/0-3 ATS in last three visits to Detroit.
— Over is 7-1 in last eight meetings.
— Road teams are 9-1 ATS in NFC North divisional games TY.

Buccaneers (8-8) @ Panthers (2-14)
— Tampa Bay clinches NFC South win a win here.
— Bucs won four of their last five games, but lost to Saints LW.
— Tampa Bay covered seven of its last ten games.
— Bucs are 2-7 when they allow more than 18 points.
— Bucs are 6-1 when they allow less than 18 points.
— Tampa Bay is 7-1 ATS on the road this year.
— Bucs are 5-9 ATS last 14 games as a road favorite (0-0 TY)
— This year, Buccaneers are 4-3 ATS in games coming off a loss.
— Over is 4-2 in Tampa Bay’s last six games.
— Mayfield is 40-47 as an NFL starter (1-1 in playoffs)
— Bucs are 5-3 ATS in last eight NFC South road games.
— Team total: over 7-7-2. Opponents’ team total: under 8-7-1

— Carolina lost eight of its last nine games (3-2 ATS last five).
— Panthers didn’t score a TD in three of their last four games.
— Carolina allowed 13-7 points in its two wins.
— Panthers fired their coach and two assistants last month.
— Carolina is 8-4-1 ATS last 13 games as a home dog (3-3-1 TY)
— Panthers are 3-2 ATS in last five games, overall.
— Last seven games, Panthers were outscored 94-25 in first half.
— Carolina is 2-8-1 ATS this year in games following a loss.
— last 3 years, Panthers are 10-21-1 ATS in games following a loss.
— You’re reading armadillosports.com
— Panthers are 4-0-1 ATS in last five NFC South home games.
— Team total: under 11-5. Opponents’ team total: over 10-6

— Tampa Bay (-3.5) beat Carolina 21-18 at home in Week 13.
— Tampa Bay won seven of last eight series games.
— Bucs are 4-3 ATS in last seven visits to Charlotte.
— Over is 5-2 in last seven meetings.

Cowboys (11-5) @ Commanders (4-12)
— Dallas has clinched playoff spot, is trying for #2 seed now.
— Cowboys lost two of last three games, is 1-4 ATS in last five.
— Dallas is 10-4 ATS last 14 games as a road favorite (3-1 TY)
— Favorites covered seven of their eight road games TY.
— Dallas scored 15.8 ppg in losses, 35.6 ppg in wins.
— Cowboys are +14 in turnovers in wins, minus-7 in losses.
— Dallas is 17-15 ATS in last 32 games coming off a win.
— Dallas is 5-3 ATS in last eight NFC East road games.
— QB Prescott is 76-43 as an NFL starter.
— Last two games, Dallas was outscored 37-17 in first half.
— Three of last four Dallas games stayed under the total.
— Team total: over 10-6. Opponents’ team total: under 9-6-1

— Washington lost seven in row, 12 of last 14 games (3-7 ATS last ten)
— Commanders covered once in their last six games.
— 2nd-year QB Howell is 5-12 as NFL starter.
— Commanders fired their defensive coordinator in November.
— Since then, Washington allowed 34.3 points/game.
— Washington is 1-11 giving up more than 17 points, 3-1 giving up 17 or less.
— Last seven games, Commanders are minus-9 in turnovers (5-14).
— Washington is 11-17 ATS last 28 games coming off a loss.
— Last 14 games, Commanders were outscored 228-99 in 1st half.
— six of their last nine games went over the total.
— Washington is 2-5-1 ATS in last eight NFC East road games.
— Team total: under 5-1 last six Opponents’ team total: over 12-4

— Cowboys (-13) whacked Washington 45-10 at home in Week 12.
— Cowboys averaged 10.3 yards/pass attempt in that game.
— Dallas won 12 of last 16 series games.
— Cowboys are 6-3 ATS in their last nine visits here.
— Under is 3-1 in last four meetings.
— Home teams are 5-4-1 ATS in NFC East home games.

Rams (9-7) @ 49ers (12-4)
— Rams are 6-1 SU/5-2 ATS last seven games; they’re in playoffs.
— Regulars will be rested in this game; Rams play next week.
— Backup QB Wentz (46-46-1 as an NFL starter) gets his first Rams start.
— Rams are 4-0 giving up 16 or less points, 5-7 giving up 19+ points.
— Rams are 8-3 when they run ball for 92+ yards, 1-4 when they don’t.
— Rams were outscored 98-46 in 2nd halves of their losses.
— Last six weeks, LA scored 17.2 ppg in first half, leading all six games.
— LA is 2-3 SU outdoors this season, scoring 20 ppg.
— under McVay, Rams are 28-35-2 ATS coming off a win, 4-3-1 TY.
— under McVay, Rams are 10-10-3 ATS as road underdogs, 2-2-1 TY.
— Five of Rams’ last six games went over the total.
— Team total: over 9-6-1. Opponents’ team total: under 8-7-1

— QB Purdy, RB McCaffrey won’t play in this game.
— SF is 7-1 since its bye week (5-3 ATS), scoring 31.6 ppg.
— 49ers have another bye week next week- they’re #1 seed.
— 49ers scored 27+ points in wins, 17-17-17-19 in losses.
— 49ers have outscored opponents 216-128 in 2nd half.
— SF ran for 171.2 yards/game in their last six games.
— 49ers are 3-4 ATS as a home favorite this season.
— SF is 18-13 ATS in last 31 games coming off a win.
— Last five weeks, 49ers have 24 TD’s on 58 drives.
— Over is 4-2 in their last six games.
— backup QB Darnold is 21-34 as NFL starter.
— Team total: over 9-7. Opponents’ team total: over 9-7

— This game means nothing to either team, other than a rivalry game.
— 49ers (-7) beat Rams 30-23 at SoFi back in Week 2.
— 49ers won five in row, nine of last ten series games.
— Rams are 2-6 ATS in last eight visits to Santa Clara.
— Under is 6-3 in last nine meetings.

Eagles (11-5) @ Giants (5-11)
— Eagles are 1-4 SU/0-5 ATS in last five games.
— Philly can still get #2 seed, if they win and Dallas loses.
— Eagle defense gave up 29 points in 2nd half of LW’s loss.
— Last six weeks, Philly gave up 31.5 ppg.
— Last three games, Eagles outscored foes 41-12 in first half.
— Last four games, Philly is minus-4 in turnovers.
— Eagles are 3-2-1 ATS as a road favorite this year.
— Under Sirianni, Eagles are 36-18 SU.
— Last two years, Eagles are 1-5 ATS coming off a loss.
— Hurts is 36-18 as an NFL starter.
— Over is 6-3 in Eagles’ last nine games.
— Eagles were minus-8 in turnovers in their losses (+2 in wins).
— Team total: over 9-6-1. Opponents’ team total: over 7-2 last nine

— Giants lost last three games, giving up 24-33-26 points.
— Last nine weeks, Big Blue was outscored 119-50 in first half.
— QB Taylor is 27-29-1 as an NFL starter, 1-3 this year.
— Last five weeks, Giants are 19-68 on third down.
— Giants gained 389 yards LW, their most since Week 2.
— Last 12 games, Giants are +16 in turnovers.
— TY, Giants are 5-5 ATS in games coming off a loss.
— Big Blue is 6-2 ATS last eight games as a home underdog.
— Giants are 3-5 ATS in last eight NFC East home games.
— Over is 5-2 in last seven Giant games.
— Team total: under 9-7. Opponents’ team total: over 9-6-1

— Eagles (-13) beat Giants 33-25 at home two weeks ago.
— Eagles outgained Giants 465-292, but were minus-2 in turnovers.
— Philly won 18 of last 21 series games.
— Eagles are 6-4 ATS in last ten visits to the Garden State.
— Under is 6-3 in last nine meetings.
— Home teams are 5-4-1 ATS in NFC East home games.

Bears (7-9) @ Packers (8-8)
— Chicago won/covered five of last seven games.
— Four of those seven games were decided by 5 or less points.
— Bears are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games.
— Bears are 2-5 SU in one-score games this season.
— Chicago is 2-8 SU when it scores less than 27 points
— Bears ran ball for 250-192 yards last two games.
— Fields is 10-27 as an NFL starter.
— TY, Bears are 3-4 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less.
— Bears led their last two games 21-7 at halftime
— last three years, Bears are 16-34 SU/21-27-2 ATS.
— Chicago is 4-4 ATS as a road underdog this season.
— Chicago is 4-10 ATS in last 14 games coming off a win.
— Six of their nine games stayed under the total.
— Team total: under 8-8. Opponents’ team total: under 8-7-1

— Packers make the playoffs with a win here.
— Green Bay is 5-2 SU/4-3 ATS in its last seven games.
— Packers are 4-7 ATS last 11 games as a home favorite.
— Green Bay outscored last six foes 105-45 in first half.
— Last five games, Packers are +6 in turnovers (9-3)
— Packers are 5-5 TY in one-score games.
— Last six games, Green Bay is 51-105 (48.6%) on third down.
— Packers are 9-5 ATS in last 14 NFC North home games.
— TY, Packers are 3-7 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less.
— Jordan Love is 8-9 as an NFL starter.
— Packers are 3-4 ATS this year in games coming off a win.
— Over is 7-1 in their last eight games.
— Last three weeks, Green Bay gave up only 87.3 rushing yards/game.
— Team total: over 8-7. Opponents’ team total: under 8-6-1

— Packers (+1) won 38-20 in Chicago in the season opener.
— Packers won last nine series games (8-1 ATS)
— Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last four visits to Lambeau.
— Over is 5-2 in last seven meetings.
— Road teams are 9-1 ATS in NFC North divisional games TY.

Seahawks (8-8) @ Cardinals (4-12)
— Seahawks make playoffs if they win, and Packers lose.
— Seattle is 2-4 SU last six games, with both wins in last minute.
— Seahawks are 5-4 in one-score games this season.
— Seahawks are 8-2 scoring 20+ points, 0-6 scoring less than 20.
— Seahawks were outscored 128-45 in second half of their losses.
— Last four games, opponents converted 27-52 third down plays.
— TY, Seattle is 5-2 ATS in games coming off a loss.
— Seahawks are 3-5 SU in road games this season.
— Seahawks are 3-2 ATS last five games as a road favorite (1-0 TY).
— Smith is 29-36 as an NFL starter; Lock is 9-14.
— Seahawks are 6-0 if they run for 100+ yards, 2-8 if they don’t.
— Three of Seattle’s last four games stayed under the total.
— Seattle is 5-3 ATS in their last eight NFC West road games.
— Team total: under 10-6. Opponents’ team total: over 8-7-1

— Arizona is 3-10 SU/5-8 ATS in its last 13 games
— Cardinals scored TD’s on all four 2nd half drives last week.
— In 5 of last 6 games, Arizona gave up 21+ points in first half.
— Cardinals are 4-3 ATS as a home dog TY.
— Cardinals are 0-10 SU when they score less than 25 points.
— Last eight games, Arizona was outscored 135-66 in first half.
— Last four games, Cardinals converted 29-59 on third down.
— Cardinals lost 23 of last 29 games SU (12-14 ATS in last 26).
— Murray is 28-36-1 as an NFL starter.
— Over is 4-1 in Arizona’s last five games.
— Arizona is 2-4 ATS in last six games coming off a win.
— Team total: over 9-7. Opponents’ team total: over 9-6-1

— Seahawks (-8) beat Cardinals 20-10 at home in Week 7.
— Seattle won nine of last 12 series games.
— Seahawks covered three of last four visits to Arizona.
— Under is 6-3 in last nine meetings.
— Home teams are 3-6-1 ATS in NFC West divisional games.

Broncos (8-8) @ Raiders (7-9)
— Denver benched QB Wilson for their last two games.
— Backup QB Stidham (1-2 as an NFL starter) gets nod here.
— Stidham was 20-32/224 in LW’s win against the Chargers.
— Broncos lost three of their last five games.
— Last two games, Denver didn’t allow a first half TD.
— Denver is 2-4 ATS as a road underdog this season.
— since 2018, Broncos are 18-15-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— Denver is 9-16-1 ATS in last 26 games with spread of 3 or less points.
— Last two weeks, opponents converted only 5-24 on third down.
— Broncos are 7-15 ATS in last 22 games coming off a win.
— Eight of last 11 Bronco games stayed under the total.
— Denver is 8-9-1 ATS in last 18 AFC West home games.
— Team total: under 9-7. Opponents’ team total: under 9-7

— Raiders are 4-4 SU/6-1-1 ATS since they changed coaches.
— Last three games, Las Vegas scored four defensive touchdowns.
— Raiders outscored last four opponents 62-21 in first half.
— Raiders didn’t scored offensive TD in two of last four games.
— Las Vegas is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight games.
— Las Vegas is 4-1 ATS as a home favorite TY.
— Raiders are 4-2-1 ATS TY in games with spread of 3 or less.
— Under is 11-5 in Raider games this season.
— Raiders are 13-18 ATS in last 31 games coming off a loss.
— QB O’Connell is 4-5 as an NFL starter.
— Team total: under 12-4. Opponents’ team total: under 10-5-1

— Raiders (+3.5) won season opener 17-16 in Denver.
— Raiders won last eight series games.
— Broncos are 0-3 SU/ATS in three visits to Las Vegas.
— Under is 6-3 in last nine meetings.
— Favorites are 6-4 ATS in AFC West divisional games.

Chiefs (10-6) @ Chargers (5-11)
— Mahomes is sitting this week; other starters will probably also rest.
— Chiefs have a home playoff game next week.
— Chiefs are 4-5 in their last nine games, after a 6-1 start.
— KC scored one offensive TD LW, gave up two defensive TD’s in Week 16 loss.
— Chiefs did kick six field goals last week.
— Chiefs haven’t had a plus turnover game since Week 6.
— In last ten games, Chiefs are minus-11 in turnovers (5-16)
— Chiefs are 11-4 ATS in last 15 games as an underdog (0-0 TY).
— Chiefs held 12 of last 14 foes under 5.7 yards/pass attempt.
— Last two games, KC converted 8-28 third down plays (28.6%)

— Under is 8-3-1 in their last thirteen games.
— Chiefs are 8-13 ATS in last 21 games coming off a win (4-4 TY).
— backup QB Gabbert is 13-35 SU as an NFL starter.
— Gabbert’s last start was in 2018.
— Team total: under 12-4. Opponents’ team total: under 11-5
— Chargers lost seven of their last eight games.
— Chargers fired their coach/GM three weeks ago.
— Chargers are 0-6 TY in games decided by 3 or fewer points.
— QB Stick is 83-127/861 passing in his first three NFL starts.
— Chargers allowed 14 TD’s on opponents’ last 45 drives.
— Bolts are 2-6 SU at home this season.
— LA is 8-7-1 ATS in last 16 games as a home favorite.
— Chargers have 11 takeaways (+8) in wins, six (minus-11) in losses.
— Opponents are 18-70 (25.7%) on 3rd down in LA wins, 65-146 (44.5%) in losses.
— Under is 10-3-1 in last fourteen Charger games.
— Chargers are 5-3 ATS in last eight AFC West home games.
— Team total: under 5-2 last seven. Opponents’ team total: under 9-7

— Chargers (+5.5) lost 31-17 at Arrowhead in Week 7.
— Chiefs had 415 passing yards in that game.
— Kansas City won 16 of last 19 series games.
— Chiefs are 8-2 ATS in last ten road series games.
— Over is 4-3 in last seven meetings played in California.
— Favorites are 6-4 ATS in AFC West divisional games.

Bills (10-6) @ Dolphins (11-5)
— Buffalo is 4-0 SU/2-2 ATS since its bye week.
— Buffalo scored 28 ppg in six games since firing their OC.
— Bills are 8-0 giving up 20 or less points, 2-6 giving up more than 20.
— Last six games, Buffalo has a +6 turnover ratio (12-6).
— Last seven games, Bills ran ball for 158.7 yards/game.
— Bills are 1-3 ATS as a road favorite this year.
— Buffalo outscored last six foes 102-47 in first half.
— Josh Allen is 57-35 as an NFL starter.
— Bills are 13-15-2 ATS in last 30 games after a win.
— Buffalo’s last two wins were by a total of eight points.
— Four of their last five games went over the total.
— Buffalo is 1-4 ATS in last five AFC East road games.
— Team total: over 8-8. Opponents’ team total: under 8-7-1

— Dolphins won five of their last seven games SU.
— Miami is 1-4 SU vs teams that currently have winning record.
— Favorites are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games.
— Miami scored 30+ points in eight of 11 wins; 20-17-14-27-19 in losses.
— Last four games, Miami is +5 in turnovers (9-4).
— Dolphins averaged 7+ yards/pass attempt in five of last seven games.
— Last 5 games, Miami converted 40-85 third down plays (47.1%).
— Under McDaniel, Miami is 9-12 ATS as an underdog (0-4 TY).
— This year, Miami is 3-0 ATS coming off a loss.
— over is 4-2 in their last six games.
— Tagovailoa is 32-18 as an NFL starter.
— Team total: over 8-8. Opponents’ team total: under 9-7

— Winner of this game wins AFC East.
— Buffalo (-2.5) whacked Miami 48-20 at home in Week 4.
— Buffalo won nine of last ten series games.
— Bills are 5-4-1 ATS in last ten visits to Miami.
— Over is 6-3 in last nine meetings.
— Favorites are 7-3 ATS in AFC East divisional games.

Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 18

Saturday’s games
Steelers (9-7) @ Ravens (13-3)
— Steelers scored 34-30 points in QB Rudolph’s (7-4-1 as starter) two starts.
— Steelers scored 13.4 ppg in last five games Rudolph didn’t start.
— Last two games, Pittsburgh converted 13-27 on third down.
— Steelers are 4-3 SU on road this year.
— since 2018, Pittsburgh is 4-10 ATS as a road favorite (1-1 TY).
— Steelers are 10-12-1 ATS in last 23 games coming off a win.
— Pittsburgh is 7-4 ATS in last 11 AFC North road games.
— Last week was only 5th time in 15 games Steelers led at halftime.
— Last four Steeler games went over the total.
— Underdogs are 7-3 ATS in AFC North divisional games this season.
— Team total: under 7-6-3. Opponents’ team total: over 9-7

— This game means nothing to Ravens; unsure who will/won’t play.
— Ravens won five in row, nine of last ten games.
— Last nine games, Baltimore scored 32 TD’s on 92 drives.
— Last six games, they ran ball for 166.7 yards/game.
— Last 13 games, Ravens outscored foes 227-86 in first half.
— Baltimore is 5-3 ATS as a home favorite this year.
— since 2018, Ravens are 6-0 ATS as a home underdog.
— Ravens are 13-1 when they score 20+ points, 0-2 if they do not.
— Baltimore is 14-15 ATS in last 29 games coming off a win.
— Baltimore is minus-6 in TO’s in its losses, +14 in wins.
— Lamar Jackson is 59-22 as an NFL starter (1-3 in playoff games)
— over is 7-3 in Baltimore’s last ten games.
— Team total: over 11-5. Opponents’ team total: under 11-4-1

— Steelers (+4.5) upset Baltimore 17-10 at home in Week 5.
— Pittsburgh was +3 in turnovers in that game.
— Steelers won six of last seven series games.
— Pittsburgh won/covered five of last six visits to Baltimore.
— Last five meetings stayed under the total.

Texans (9-7) @ Colts (9-7)
— Houston split its last six games SU.
— Texans are 3-4 SU on road this season.
— Houston is 1-7-2 ATS last 10 games as a road favorite.
— Last six games, Texans are +6 in turnovers (9-3).
— Houston is 3-6 ATS in last nine games coming off a win.
— Texans are 7-5-1 ATS in last 13 games with spread of 3 or loss points.
— Texas are 2-6 when they allow 20+ points.
— under is 4-3 in their road games this season.
— QB Stroud is 8-6 as an NFL starter.
— Texans are 7-1 ATS in last eight AFC South road games.
— Team total: under 8-7-1. Opponents’ team total: under 11-5

— Indianapolis is 6-2 SU/5-3 ATS in last eight games.
— Favorites covered eight of their last nine games.
— Colts split their eight home games SU this season.
— Colts are 0-7 giving up 29+ points, 9-0 allowing 28 or fewer points.
— QB Minshew is 15-21 as an NFL starter, 7-5 TY.
— Colts are 13-14 ATS in last 27 games with spread of 3 or less.
— In its last eight games, Indy was +8 in turnovers (13-5)
— Last six games, Colts converted only 25-78 on third down.
— Over is 8-3 in Indy’s last eleven games.
— Colts are 18-19 ATS in last 37 games coming off a win.
— Colts are 6-7 ATS in last 13 games as a home favorite.
— Colts are 3-7-1 ATS in last 11 AFC South home games.
— Team total: over 10-4-2. Opponents’ team total: over 9-7

— Winner of this game still needs help to make the playoffs.
— Colts (+1) won 31-20 in Houston back in Week 2.
— Indianapolis is 6-1-1 SU in last eight series games.
— Texans are 5-3 ATS in last eight visits to the Hoosier Dome
— Under is 5-2 in last seven meetings.