NFL
Armadillo's Write-up
Week 2
Sunday’s games
Saints
@
Cowboys (-6.5)
Saints (1-0)
Last week, Saints outgained Carolina 379-193 in a 47-10 home win.
Saints were 7-13 on third down, +2 in turnovers.
Since 2018, New Orleans is 14-5-1 ATS as a road underdog.
QB Carr is 73-88 as an NFL starter.
Since 2010, Saints are 5-9 SU/2-12 ATS in road openers.
Last 3 years, New Orleans is 7-14-2 ATS coming off a win.
Under is 16-7 in their last 23 road games.
Cowboys (1-0)
LW, Dallas outgained Browns 265-230 in 33-17 road win.
Zimmer’s defense held Cleveland to 2.7 yards/pass attempt.
Last three years, Cowboys are 16-7 ATS as a home favorite.
Last three years, Dallas was 20-14 ATS coming off a win.
QB Prescott is 76-46 as an NFL starter.
Dallas is 5-2 ATS in last seven home openers.
Over is 31-17 in last 48 Dallas home games.
Teams split last six series games.
Saints are 2-2 SU/1-3 ATS in last four visits to Dallas.
Last four meetings stayed under the total.
Buccaneers @ Lions (-7.5)
Buccaneers (1-0)
Mayfield averaged 9.0 yards/pass attempt in LW’s 37-20 win vs Washington
Bucs were 9-13 on third down, Commanders 2-8.
Under Bowles, Tampa Bay is 7-3 ATS as a road underdog.
Last six years, Tampa Bay is 4-2 SU/ATS in road openers.
QB Mayfield is 43-48 as an NFL starter, 11-9 with Buccaneers.
Over is 10-6 in their last 16 road openers.
Last three years, under is 16-9 in Tampa Bay road games.
Lions (1-0)
LW, Lions tied game late, won home opener 26-20 in overtime.
Under Campbell, Lions are 10-4 ATS as a home favorite.
Last two years, Detroit is 13-6 ATS coming off a win.
Lions were 6-13 on 3rd down LW, but allowed 304 PY.
Goff is 27-24-1 as Detroit’s QB (was 44-30 with Rams)
Over is 12-6 in their last 18 home games.
Detroit (-6) beat Tampa Bay 31-23 in LY’s playoffs.
Lions won six of last nine series games.
Buccaneers are 4-2 SU/ATS in last six visits to Detroit.
Browns @ Jaguars (-3)
Browns (0-1)
Cleveland gained only 230 TY in LW’s 33-17 home loss to Dallas.
Browns were 2-15 on 3rd down vs Dallas, 3-5 on 4th down.
Last three years, Cleveland is 6-10-1 ATS as road underdog.
QB Watson is 37-32 as an NFL starter, 8-5 with Browns.
Cleveland is 10-3-1 ATS in last 14 games coming off a loss.
Cleveland is 2-4 SU/4-2 ATS in its last six road openers.
Over is 3-0 in Browns’ last three road openers.
Jaguars (0-1)
Jaguars were outgained 400-267 in LW’s 20-17 loss at Miami.
LY, Jaguars were 4-2 ATS as home favorite (5-14 from 2016-22).
QB Lawrence is 21-32 as an NFL starter.
Jaguars are 3-9 ATS in last 12 home openers (3-3 ATS in last six).
Jacksonville’s last three home openers stayed under the total.
Jaguars are 19-18 SU under Pederson (15-50 previous four years)
Under Pederson, Jaguars are 8-7 ATS in games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Browns won last two meetings, 31-27/27-25.
Browns are 1-2 SU/0-3 ATS in last three visits to Jacksonville.
Over is 5-3 in last eight series games.
49ers (-6.5) @ Vikings
49ers (1-0)
Short week/long travel for 49ers after their Monday nite game.
49ers outgained Jets 401-266 in Monday’s 32-19 win.
Since 2020, San Francisco is 15-10-1 ATS as a road favorite.
Since 2019, 49ers are 27-22-1 ATS coming off a win.
QB Purdy is 22-5 as an NFL starter.
Since 2008, 49ers are 11-7 ATS in road openers.
Under is 5-2 in their last seven road openers.
Vikings (1-0)
Minnesota outgained Giants 312-220 in LW’s 28-6 road win.
Last week was first time in 8 years that Vikings won their road opener.
Under O’Connell, Vikings are 2-4 ATS as a home underdog.
Minnesota is 7-2 ATS in last nine home openers.
QB Darnold is 22-35 as an NFL starter.
Vikings 5-1-1 ATS LY in games coming off a win.
Minnesota is one of 7 teams with same HC, coordinators as LY.
Under is 9-1 in their last ten home openers.
Home team won last seven series games.
49ers are 0-4 SU/1-3 ATS in last four visits to Minnesota.
Under is 5-1 in last six meetings.
Chargers (-6.5) @ Panthers
Chargers (1-0)
Chargers ran for 176 yards in LW’s 22-10 home win over Las Vegas.
Last two years, Bolts were 5-3-2 ATS as a road favorite.
Since 2019, Bolts are 13-16-5 ATS coming off a win.
QB Herbert is 31-33 as an NFL starter.
Last 8 years, Chargers are 5-2-1 ATS in their road opener.
Since 2020, Chargers are 9-7-3 ATS vs AFC opponents.
Harbaugh was 49-22-1 as 49ers’ coach (2011-14).
Under is 4-1 in their last five road openers.
Panthers (0-1)
LW, Panthers gained only 193 TY in ugly 47-10 loss in New Orleans
Saints outrushed Carolina, 180-58.
Last three games, Carolina was outscored by a combined 82-10.
Since 2019, Carolina is 10-13-2 ATS as home underdog.
2nd year QB Young is 2-15 as an NFL starter.
Last 5 years, Carolina is 1-3-1ATS in home openers.
Since 1996, under is 18-9-1 in Panthers’ home openers.
Last three years, Carolina is 5-10 ATS vs AFC opponents.
Carolina won/covered last four series games.
Chargers are 1-2 SU/2-1 ATS in last three visits to Charlotte.
Under is 4-1 in last five meetings.
Raiders @ Ravens (-9)
Raiders (0-1)
Raiders were minus-3 in turnovers, gained only 296 yards in LW’s 22-10 loss.
Raiders are 13-18-1 ATS in game following their last 32 losses.
QB Minshew is 15-23 as an NFL starter; Raiders are his 4th team.
Since 2019, Las Vegas is 19-12 ATS as a road underdog.
Raiders are 8-2-1 ATS in last 11 road openers.
Since start of 2020, Raiders are minus-32 in turnovers in 68 games.
Under is 17-9 in their last 26 road games, 5-2 in last seven road openers.
Ravens (1-0)
Ravens outgained KC 452-353 but lost opener 27-20 at Arrowhead.
QB Jackson threw for 273 yards, ran for 185 more,
Derrick Henry ran ball only 13 times, for 46 yards,
Since 2021, Ravens are 9-13 ATS as a home favorite.
QB Jackson is 60-24 as an NFL starter.
Since 2005, Ravens are 12-6 ATS in their home opener.
Last two years, under is 11-6 in Baltimore’s home games.
Ravens have a first-time defensive coordinator.
Last four years, Baltimore is 12-10 ATS coming off a loss.
Teams split their last six meetings.
Teams haven’t met since 2021.
Raiders are 1-4 SU/ATS in last five visits to Baltimore.
Last six series games went over the total.
Seahawks (-3.5) @ Patriots
Seahawks (1-0)
Seattle outgained Denver 304-231 in LW’s 26-20 home win.
Last four years, Seahawks are 5-8-1 ATS as road favorites.
Since 2019, Seattle is 4-1 SU/ATS in road openers.
Seattle is 11-7-2 ATS last 20 games vs AFC opponents.
QB Smith is 31-37 as an NFL starter, 19-18 with Seattle.
Under is 10-3 in their last 13 road openers.
Seahawks are 11-19-2 in last 32 games coming off a win.
Under is 14-9-1 in their last 24 road games.
Patriots (1-0)
Patriots held Bengals to 224 TY in LW’s 16-10 upset win.
New England ran ball for 170 yards, threw for only 120
Last two years, New England is 1-8 ATS as a home underdog.
Last three years, Patriots are 0-3 SU/ATS in home openers.
New England is 7-12 ATS in last 19 games vs NFC teams.
Patriots QB Brissett is 19-30 as an NFL starter.
Seattle won/covered last three series games.
Seahawks split their last two visits to Foxboro.
Last five series games went over the total.
Colts (-3) @ Packers
Colts (0-1)
LW, Colts gave up 213 rushing yards in their 29-27 home loss.
Indy completed only 9-19 passes, averaged 20+ yards/reception.
Last nine years, Colts are 2-6-1 ATS in road openers.
Last four years, Colts are 8-4 ATS as road favorites.
Colts are 22-12-1 ATS in last 35 games on natural grass
Indy is 17-12-1 ATS in last 30 games coming off a loss.
2nd-year QB Richardson is 2-3 as an NFL starter.
Colts are one of 7 teams with same HC, coordinators as LY.
Packers (0-1)
QB Love isn’t expected to play; Malik Willis would replace him.
Willis was 1-2 as a starter for Tennessee in 2022.
Green Bay is 19-9 ATS in last 28 games as an underdog.
Last nine years, Packers are 7-2 ATS in home openers.
Since 2018, Green Bay is 15-12-1 ATS vs AFC opponents.
LW, Packers outgained Eagles 414-410 in 34-29 loss.
QB Willis is 1-2 as an NFL starter; Love is 10-11.
Under is 5-2 in Green Bay’s last seven home openers.
Former Boston College HC Hafley is Green Bay’s new DC.
Colts won last three series games, by 3-5-3 points.
Teams split their last two meetings at Lambeau Field.
Last five series games went over the total.
Jets (-4.5) @ Titans
Jets (0-1)
Short week, more travel for Jets after their Monday night loss.
Jets were outgained 401-266 in Monday night’s loss.
49ers outrushed them 180-68 Monday night.
Since 2017, Jets are 1-6-1 ATS as a road favorite.
Since 2018, Jets are 26-38 ATS coming off a loss.
Rodgers is 159-86-1 as an NFL starter.
Under is 18-13 in their last 31 road games.
Titans (0-1)
Titans lost 24-17 in Chicago LW, without giving up an offensive TD.
Bears blocked a punt for a TD, also had a pick-6.
Tennessee is 9-4-1 ATS in last 14 games as a home underdog.
Since 2016, Titans are 33-22-3 ATS coming off a loss.
Tennessee is 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 home openers.
Under is 5-2 in their last seven home openers.
QB Levis is 3-7 as an NFL starter.
Titans have an all-new coaching staff.
Jets won three of last four games with Tennessee.
Gang Green is 2-4 SU/4-2 ATS in last six visits to Nashville.
Over is 5-3 in last eight series games.
Giants @ Commanders (-1.5)
Giants (0-1)
Giants were outgained 312-240 in LW’s 28-6 home loss.
Last four years, Giants are 2-2 SU/3-1 ATS in road openers.
Those four games were decided by total of 10 points.
Since 2018, Giants are 28-16 ATS as road underdogs.
Under Daboll, Giants are 12-5 ATS coming off a loss.
Under Daboll, Giants are 5-1 ATS in NFC East road games.
QB Jones is 23-38-1 as an NFL starter.
Under Daboll, Giants are 5-5-1 ATS in games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
New defensive coordinator for Big Blue this season.
Commanders (0-1)
Bucs outgained Washington 392-299 in LW’s 37-20 Tampa Bay win.
Commanders were 2-8 on third down, Bucs were 9-13.
Rookie QB Daniels was 17-24/184 passing in his first NFL start.
Washington is 4-10 ATS in last 14 games as a home favorite.
Commanders are 2-6-1 ATS in last nine NFC East home games.
Last eight years, Washington is 3-5 SU/2-6 ATS in home openers.
Washington is 14-9-2 ATS in last 25 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Over is 8-5 in their last 13 home openers.
Commanders are 11-18-1 ATS in last 30 games coming off a loss.
Giants are 7-2-1 SU in last ten series games.
Big Blue covered its last six visits here.
Under is 7-2 in last nine meetings.
Rams @ Cardinals (-1.5)
Rams (0-1)
Rams have pretty severe injury problems on offensive line.
Rams threw for 304 yards LY, but lost 26-20 in OT at Detroit.
Under McVay, Rams are 23-16-1 ATS coming off a loss.
Last two years, LA is 4-7-2 ATS as a road underdog.
Under is 10-6-1 in Rams’ last 17 road games.
LA is 7-2 ATS in its last nine NFC West road games.
WR Kupp caught 14 passes for 110 yards and a TD last week.
QB Stafford is 28-19 as Rams’ QB (was 74-93-1 with Detroit).
Cardinals (0-1)
Arizona lost 34-28 at Buffalo LW, after leading 17-3.
Cardinals are 5-14-1 ATS in last 20 games as home favorites.
Last five years, Arizona is 4-11 ATS in NFC West home games.
Cardinals are 9-8 ATS in last 17 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
QB Murray is 28-38-1 SU as an NFL starter.
Cardinals are 3-5 ATS in last eight home openers.
Over is 4-1 in their last five home openers.
Arizona is one of 7 teams with same HC, coordinators as LY.
Rams won three in row, 14 of last 16 series games.
Rams are 9-0 ATS in last nine visits to Arizona.
Over is 4-2 in last six meetings.
Bengals @ Chiefs (-5.5)
Bengals (0-1)
Bengals were held to 224 yards in LW’s 16-10 home loss.
Bengals were 4-11 on 3rd down, averaged 4.8 yards/pass attempt.
Bengals lost their last five road openers (0-3 ATS last three).
Cincinnati is 6-3-1 ATS in last 10 games as a road underdog.
QB Burrow is 34-25-1 as an NFL starter.
Last four years, Cincinnati is 17-10-1 ATS coming off a loss.
WR Chase, who is in a contract dispute, caught six balls for 62 yards LW
Bengals ran only 48 plays in Sunday’s loss; New England ran 64.
Chiefs (1-0)
Chiefs outgained Ravens 452-353 in LW’s 27-20 home win,
Kansas City played on Thursday LW, had extra time to prep for this.
Chiefs are 19-28-1 in last 48 games coming off a win.
Last 4+ years, under is 21-12-1 in games at Arrowhead.
Last 4+ years, KC is 15-17 ATS as a home favorite.
QB Mahomes is 90-25 as an NFL starter.
WR Rice caught seven passes for 103 yards LW.
In Week 1, individual team totals were 16-13-1 to the over.
Teams split their last six meetings.
Bengals are 3-5 ATS in last eight visits to Arrowhead.
Under is 8-2 in last ten series games.
Steelers (-3) @ Broncos
Steelers (1-0)
Steelers held Atlanta to 226 yards in LW’s 18-10 road win.
Pittsburgh was +3 in turnovers LW, converted 8-17 third down plays.
Since 2020, Pittsburgh is 4-3 as a road favorite.
Steelers are 17-9-1 ATS in last 27 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
QB Fields is 11-28 as an NFL starter (1-0 with Steelers).
Pittsburgh is 9-6-1 in its last 16 games coming off a win.
Under is 8-2 in their last ten road games.
Russell Wilson was Denver’s QB the last two years; he won’t play here, but he is on the Steelers’ bench.
Broncos (0-1)
Rookie QB Nix averaged 3.3 yards/pass attempt in his first NFL start.
Denver is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games as a home underdog.
In his career, Payton is 51-34-2 ATS as an underdog.
Denver was held to 231 TY LW; they were 5-18 on third down.
Since 2000, Denver is 20-4 SU/15-9 ATS in home openers.
Denver’s last five home openers stayed under the total.
Broncos are 9-17-1 ATS in last 27 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Broncos are 13-15-1 ATS in last 29 games coming off a loss.
Home team won last six series games.
Steelers are 1-4 SU/ATS in last five visits to Denver.
Over is 8-2 in last ten meetings.
Bears @ Texans (-6.5)
Bears (1-0)
Bears won 24-17 LW, despite not scoring an offensive TD.
Chicago was outgained 244-148; blocked punt for TD, had a pick-6.
Bears are 9-15-1 ATS in last 25 games as a road underdog.
Chicago is 5-11 ATS in last 16 games coming off a win.
Bears are 4-2 SU/3-3 ATS in last six road openers.
Under is 6-1 in their last seven road openers.
Under Eberflus, Bears are 5-5-1 ATS vs AFC opponents.
Bears have a 3rd-year HC but have two new coordinators TY.
Texans (1-0)
Texans ran for 213 yards, held off Colts 29-27 at Indy last week.
Houston was 10-7 LY, its first winning year since 2019.
Since 2019, Texans are 4-11 ATS as a home favorite.
Houston is 4-7 ATS in last 11 games coming off a win.
Last 7 years, Texans are 2-5 ATS in home openers.
Over is 3-1 in last four home openers.
2nd-year QB Stroud is 11-7 as an NFL starter.
Houston is one of 7 teams with same HC, coordinators as LY.
Home team won four of last five series games.
Bears lost 23-14/31-24 in their two visits to Houston.
Under is 4-2 in series games.
Monday’s game
Falcons @ Eagles (-6.5)
Falcons (0-1)
Atlanta was held to 226 yards in LW’s 18-10 home loss.
Falcons were 2-9 on third down, Pittsburgh 8-17.
Falcons are 0-6 SU/2-4 ATS in last six road openers.
Three of their last four road openers went over total.
Falcons are 17-22 ATS in last 39 games as a road underdog.
New QB Cousins is 77-71-2 as an NFL starter.
Raheem Morris is 21-39 as an NFL head coach.
Under is 10-7 in Atlanta’s last 17 road games.
Eagles (1-0)
Eagles beat Green Bay 34-29 in Brazil LW; they gave up 414 TY.
Since 2018, Eagles are 29-39-1 ATS as a favorite.
Philly is 11-7-1 in last 19 games as a home favorite.
RB Barkley had 132 TY, scored 3 TD’s in his first game with Philly.
Eagles have two new coordinators; Kellen Moore is new OC.
QB Hurts is 37-20 as an NFL starter.
Since 2018, Eagles are 24-28-2 ATS coming off a win.
Eagles turned ball over 3 times LW; they were minus-10 in TO’s LY.
Eagles won four of last five series games.
Falcons are 1-5 ATS in last six visits to Philadelphia.
Last six series games stayed under the total.
