Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites.
NFL
Week 3
Trend Report
New England vs NY Jets
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Jets
New England is 15-1 SU in its last 16 games when playing NY Jets
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of NY Jets's last 8 games when playing at home against New England
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Jets's last 6 games when playing New England
Houston vs Minnesota
Houston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing Minnesota
Minnesota is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Houston
Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Houston
Philadelphia vs New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games on the road
Philadelphia is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing New Orleans
New Orleans is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
New Orleans is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Green Bay vs Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Green Bay's last 8 games when playing Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Green Bay's last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Tennessee's last 8 games when playing Green Bay
Tennessee is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Green Bay
NY Giants vs Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of NY Giants's last 17 games
NY Giants is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games
Cleveland is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Cleveland is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
Chicago vs Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Chicago's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Chicago's last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Indianapolis's last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 17 of Indianapolis's last 25 games
LA Chargers vs Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of LA Chargers's last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 6 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing at home against LA Chargers
Pittsburgh is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Denver vs Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
Denver is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing Denver
Tampa Bay is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
Carolina vs Las Vegas
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Carolina's last 13 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina's last 7 games when playing Las Vegas
Las Vegas is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Las Vegas is 6-1-1 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Miami vs Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami's last 7 games
Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games at home
Seattle is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Detroit vs Arizona
Detroit is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Detroit is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Arizona's last 9 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games
San Francisco vs LA Rams
San Francisco is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Rams
San Francisco is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Rams
LA Rams is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
LA Rams is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games at home
Baltimore vs Dallas
Baltimore is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Dallas
Baltimore is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Dallas is 16-2 SU in its last 18 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games
Kansas City vs Atlanta
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Kansas City is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 7 games at home
Jacksonville vs Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 6 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 6 games
Buffalo is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
Buffalo is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
Washington vs Cincinnati
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Washington's last 10 games
Cincinnati is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Cincinnati's last 8 games
NFL
Armadillo's Write-up
Week 3
Thursday’s game
Patriots @ Jets (-6.5)
Patriots (1-1)
Patriots ran ball for 170-185 yards in splitting first two games.
Opponents ran ball for 70-46 yards.
Team total: over 1-0-1
Opponents’ team total: over 1-1
New England is 10-12 ATS last 22 games as a road underdog.
Last three years, Patriots are 0-3 SU/ATS in home openers.
New England is 10-8 ATS in last 18 AFC East road games.
Patriots QB Brissett is 19-31 as an NFL starter.
Jets (1-1)
Jets split first two games, both on road (over 2-0)
Jets were held to 266/265 yards in first two games.
Jets converted 11 of 22 third down plays.
49ers outrushed them 180-68 Monday night.
Team total: over 1-0-1
Opponents’ team total: over 1-1
Under Saleh, Jets are 11-15 ATS at home
Since 2021, Jets are 5-11-1 ATS coming off a win.
Rodgers is 160-86-1 as an NFL starter.
Under is 11-6 in their last 17 home games.
New England won 23 of last 26 series games.
Patriots are 5-1 ATS in last six visits to the Garden State.
Under is 5-0 in last five meetings.
Armadillo's Write-up
Week 3
Sunday’s games
Chargers
Chargers (2-0)
Chargers won first two games, allowing one TD on 23 drives.
Chargers outscored their opponents 22-6 in second half.
Since 2019, Bolts are 14-16-5 ATS coming off a win.
Team total: over 2-0
Opponents’ team total: under 2-0
Since 2019, Chargers are 8-9-2 ATS as road underdogs.
Chargers outrushed first two opponents, 395-161.
Since 2019, Chargers are 8-25-7 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less points.
QB Herbert is 32-33 as an NFL starter.
Under is 2-0 in their first two games.
Steelers (2-0)
Steelers won first two games, allowing one TD on 18 drives.
Pittsburgh is +5 in turnovers in its first two games.
Team total: under 2-0
Opponents’ team total: under 2-0
Steelers have only one TD on 21 drives (8 field goals).
QB Fields is 12-28 as an NFL starter (2-0 with Steelers).
Pittsburgh is 10-6-1 in its last 17 games coming off a win.
Steelers are 13-6-1 ATS in last 20 games with spread of 3 or less points.
Steelers outrushed first two opponents, 278-153.
Teams split their last six meetings.
Chargers are 2-2 SU/3-1 ATS in last four visits to Pittsburgh.
Over is 4-2 in last six series games.
Bears @ Colts (-1.5)
Bears (1-1)
Bears split first two games, scoring one offensive TD on 21 drives.
Chicago was outgained 554-353 in those games.
Rookie QB Williams averaged 3.0/3.0 yards/pass in his two games.
Team total: under 1-0-1
Opponents’ team total: under 2-0
Bears are 10-15-1 ATS in last 26 games as road underdogs.
Chicago has converted 8-30 third down plays.
Under Eberflus, Bears are 6-5-1 ATS vs AFC opponents.
Chicago is 4-7-2 ATS in last 13 games with spread of 3 or less points.
Bears have been outscored 33-13 in first half of games.
Colts (0-2)
Colts lost their first two games by total of eight points.
Indy have completed only 26-53 passes, but for 16 yards/reception.
Colts have been outscored 22-7 in first half of games.
Team total: over 1-1
Opponents’ team total: over 1-1
Indy is 17-13-1 ATS in last 31 games coming off a loss.
2nd-year QB Richardson is 2-4 as an NFL starter.
Colts are 9-11-1 ATS in last 21 games as a home favorite.
Under Steichen, Colts are 8-5 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less points.
First two games, Indy was outgained by 79.5 yards/game.
Colts won four of last six series games.
Teams split their last two meetings in Indianapolis.
Colts (-7) beat Chicago 29-17 in Super Bowl in 2006.
Over is 5-2 in last seven meetings.
Texans (-2.5) @ Vikings
Texans (2-0)
Texans won first two games, by total of eight points.
Houston outgained its opponents by 114/105 yards.
Team total: over 1-1
Opponents’ team total: over 1-1
Since 2016, Texans are 2-8-2 ATS as road favorites.
Houston is 4-8 ATS in last 12 games coming off a win.
2nd-year QB Stroud is 12-7 as an NFL starter.
Texans are 13-11-2 ATS in last 26 games with spread of 3 or less points.
Houston is 5-12-1 ATS in last 18 games vs NFC opponents.
Vikings (2-0)
Minnesota won first two games, giving up two TD’s on 21 drives.
Vikings outscored first two opponents 27-10 in first half.
Team total: over 2-0
Opponents’ team total: under 2-0
QB Darnold is 23-35 as an NFL starter, 2-0 with Vikings.
Vikings are 6-1-1 ATS in last eight games coming off a win.
Minnesota is 5-6 ATS in last 11 games as a home underdog.
Vikings are 12-10-3 ATS in last 25 games with spread of 3 or less points.
Under is 6-2-1 in their last nine home games.
Vikings won/covered all five meetings.
Texans lost 31-13/28-21 in two visits to Minnesota.
Over is 5-2 in series games.
Giants @ Browns (-6.5)
Giants (0-2)
Giants lost first two games, scoring three TD’s on 18 drives.
Giants didn’t allow a TD last week, but gave up seven FG’s.
Team total: under 2-0
Opponents’ team total: over 1-1
In their two games, Giants were outgained by 72-121 yards.
Under Daboll, Giants are 12-6 ATS coming off a loss.
Under Daboll, Giants are 7-2-1 ATS vs AFC opponents.
QB Jones is 23-39-1 as an NFL starter.
Giants have been outscored 26-9 in second half of games.
Browns (1-1)
Cleveland split its first two games, scoring 17-18 points.
Browns are 4-29 on 3rd down so far, 6-8 on 4th down.
Team total: under 2-0
Opponents’ team total: over 1-1
Browns were 6-0 ATS as home favorites LY (7-12-1 from 2020-22)
QB Watson is 38-32 as an NFL starter, 9-5 with Browns.
Cleveland is 9-15-1 ATS in last 25 games coming off a win.
Cleveland is 13-5-1 ATS in last 19 games vs NFC teams.
Over is 3-0 in Browns’ last three road openers.
Giants won four of six series games.
Giants won two of last three visits to Cleveland.
Under is 4-2 in series games.
Eagles @ Saints (-2.5)
Eagles (1-1)
Short week/travel for Eagles after their Monday night loss.
Eagles’ first two games were decided by total of six points.
Team total: over 1-1
Opponents’ team total: over 2-0
First two games, Philly gave up 163/152 yards rushing.
Under Sirianni, Eagles are 5-9 ATS as an underdog.
QB Hurts is 37-21 as an NFL starter.
Under Sirianni, Eagles are 5-9 ATS coming off a loss.
Opponents have converted only 5-20 third down plays.
Saints (2-0)
Saints won their first two games, scoring 47-44 points.
New Orleans has 11 touchdowns on 20 drives.
Team total: over 2-0
Opponents’ team total: under 2-0
First two games, Saints averaged 8.3/14.2 yards/pass.
First two games, Saints ran ball for 180/190 yards.
Last 3+ years, New Orleans is 8-14-2 ATS coming off a win.
QB Carr is 74-88 as an NFL starter.
Under is 16-7 in their last 23 road games.
Teams split their last six meetings.
Eagles’ last visit to New Orleans was in 2018.
Eagles lost last three visits here; their last win in NO was 2007.
Over is 8-4 in last 12 series games.
Broncos @ Buccaneers (-6.5)
Broncos (0-2)
Denver lost first two games, by 6-7 points.
Rookie QB Nix averaged 3.3/6.2 yards/pass attempt in his first 2 NFL starts.
Team total: over 1-1
Opponents’ team total: over 1-1
Denver is 8-10 ATS in last 18 games as a road underdog.
Denver is 4-7 ATS in last 11 games vs NFC opponents.
First two games, Broncos were outrushed, 287-163
Broncos are 13-16-1 ATS in last 30 games coming off a loss.
Under is 15-10 in their last 25 road games.
Buccaneers (2-0)
Tampa Bay won its first two games, scoring six TD’s on 18 drives.
Bucs are 11-23 on third down in two games.
Team total: over 1-1
Opponents’ team total: over 1-1
Bucs are 4-1-1 ATS in las tis games as a home favorite.
QB Mayfield is 44-48 as an NFL starter, 12-9 with Buccaneers.
Tampa Bay is 10-8-1 in last 19 games vs AFC opponents.
Last three years, under is 16-9 in Tampa Bay road games.
Bucs won in Detroit LW, despite being outgained 463-216.
Denver won four of last five meetings.
Broncos won 27-7/16-13 in last two visits to Tampa.
Under is 4-1 in last five series games.
Packers @ Titans (-3)
Packers (1-1)
QB Willis was 12-14/144 in his first start for Packers LW.
Willis was 1-2 as a starter for Tennessee in 2022.
Titans traded Willis to Green Bay August 26.
Team total: over 1-1
Opponents’ team total: over 1-1
Green Bay is 20-9 ATS in last 29 games as an underdog.
First two games, Packers ran ball for 163/261 yards.
Under is 16-9 in Green Bay’s last 25 true road games.
Former Boston College HC Hafley is Green Bay’s new DC.
First two games, opponents are 6-23 on third down.
Titans (0-2)
Titans have been outscored 38-7 in second half of games.
Tennessee had a punt blocked in both games.
Titans are minus-4 in turnovers, plus the two blocked punts.
Team total: under 2-0
Opponents’ team total: over 1-0-1
Tennessee is 13-15 ATS in its last 28 games as a home favorite.
Titans outgained both its opponents, by 101-35 yards.
Tennessee is 15-12-1 ATS in last 28 games vs NFC opponents.
QB Levis is 3-8 as an NFL starter.
Titans have an all-new coaching staff.
Titans won five of last seven series games.
Packers are 0-3 SU/1-2 ATS in last three visits to Tennessee.
Over is 6-1 in last seven meetings.
Panthers @ Raiders (-5)
Panthers (0-2)
Carolina is switching QB’s, from 2nd year QB Young to veteran Dalton
Dalton is 83-82-2 as an NFL starter, mostly with Cincinnati.
Former Bengals HC Marvin Lewis is a Raiders assistant.
Team total: under 2-0
Opponents’ team total: over 2-0
Dalton started one game for the Panthers last year.
Carolina lost first two games this year, 47-10/26-3.
Panthers are 1-8-1 ATS in last 10 games as a road underdog.
Last 3+ years, Carolina is 5-11 ATS vs AFC opponents.
Panthers are 2-22 on third down, opponents 16-29.
Raiders (1-1)
Raiders (+9) scored on 5 of last 6 drives, upset Ravens 26-23 LW.
Las Vegas was 6-2 ATS LY in game following their wins.
Raiders have converted only 9-26 third down plays.
Last two years, Raiders are 9-3 ATS as a home favorite.
Team total: over 1-1
Opponents’ team total: over 1-1
Raiders gave up 176/151 rushing yards in their two games.
First two games, Las Vegas was outrushed by 71.5 yards/game.
Las Vegas is 3-6 ATS in its last nine home openers.
Since start of 2020, Raiders are minus-32 in turnovers in 69 games.
QB Minshew is 16-23 as an NFL starter; Raiders are his 4th team.
Raiders won five of last seven meetings.
Raiders’ last four series wins were all by 4 or fewer points.
Carolina is 1-2 SU/2-1 ATS in last three road series games.
Dolphins @ Seahawks (-5.5)
Dolphins (1-1)
Backup QB Thompson replaces injured Tagvailova (concussion)
Thompson is 1-1 as an NFL starter; those games were in 2022.
Under McDaniel, Miami is 4-5 ATS as a road underdog.
Team total: under 2-0
Opponents’ team total: over 1-1
Dolphins are 7-2 ATS in last nine road openers.
Miami is 11-8 ATS in last 19 games vs NFC opponents.
Dolphins have only three TD’s on 21 drives this year.
Miami has been outscored 41-17 in first half of games.
Seahawks (2-0)
Seattle won its first two games, by 6-3 points.
Seahawks are 5-11-1 ATS last 17 games as home favorites.
Team total: over 2-0
Opponents’ team total: over 2-0
QB Smith is 32-37 as an NFL starter, 20-18 with Seattle.
Seahawks held first two opponents to 3.0/4.2 yards/pass attempt.
Seahawks are 11-19-2 in last 32 games coming off a win.
Seattle is 11-7-3 ATS last 21 games vs AFC opponents.
Teams split their last six meetings.
Dolphins are 1-2 SU/3-0 ATS in last three visits to Seattle.
Under is 3-1 in last four series games.
Lions (-3) @ Cardinals
Lions (1-1)
Lions split first two games, decided by total of 7 points.
Last week, Detroit was in red zone seven times, scored only 16 points.
Team total: under 2-0
Opponents’ team total: under 2-0
Lions are 13-26 on third down, opponents 7-22.
Goff is 27-25-1 as Detroit’s QB (was 44-30 with Rams)
Detroit is 5-3 ATS in last eight road openers.
Over is 7-2 in their last nine road openers.
Cardinals (1-1)
Arizona split its first two games, scoring 28-41 points.
Cardinals have 7 touchdowns on 17 drives.
Team total: over 2-0
Opponents’ team total: over 1-1
QB Murray is 29-38-1 SU as an NFL starter.
Cardinals are 6-3 ATS in last nine games as a home dog.
In two games, Arizona is 14-24 on third down.
Arizona is 2-5 ATS in last seven games coming off a win.
Detroit is 4-0-1 SU in last five series games.
Lions are 2-8 ATS in last ten visits to Arizona.
Under is 3-1 in last four meetings.
Ravens @ Cowboys (-1.5)
Ravens (0-2)
Baltimore lost its first two games, by 7-3 points.
Ravens are 0-2 for the first time since 2015.
Ravens are 16-4 ATS in last 20 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Team total: under 2-0
Opponents’ team total: over 2-0
Since 2017, Ravens are 15-5-2 ATS as a road underdog.
Over is 5-1 in Baltimore’s last six regular season games.
QB Jackson is 60-25 as an NFL starter.
Last 4+ years, Baltimore is 12-11 ATS coming off a loss.
Ravens are 11-7 ATS in last 18 road games.
Cowboys (1-1)
Cowboys lost 44-19 at home LW, giving up 14.2 yards/pass attempt.
Last three years, Dallas is 11-3 ATS coming off a loss.
Team total: over 2-0
Opponents’ team total
ver 1-1
Dallas is 16-8 ATS in last 24 games as a home favorite.
QB Prescott is 76-47 as an NFL starter.
Dallas is 7-5 ATS in last 12 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Cowboys are 7-4 ATS in last 11 games vs AFC opponents.
Over is 32-17 in last 49 Dallas home games.
Baltimore won five of last six series games.
Teams split their last two meetings in Dallas.
Over is 4-0-1 in last five series games.
49ers (-7) @ Rams
49ers (1-1)
49ers split first two games, getting upset 23-17 at Minnesota LW.
49ers have converted only 8-23 third down plays.
Team total: over 1-1
Opponents’ team total: over 1-0-1
49ers are 9-6 ATS in last fifteen games off a loss.
QB Purdy is 22-6 as an NFL starter.
Since 2020, San Francisco is 15-11-1 ATS as a road favorite.
Last five years, 49ers are 10-4-1 ATS in NFC West road games.
Rams (0-2)
Rams have pretty severe injury problems all over the roster.
Arizona outgained them 489-245 in last week’s 41-10 loss.
Under McVay, Rams are 23-17-1 ATS coming off a loss.
Team total: under 2-0
Opponents’ team total: over 1-1
Rams have been outrushed 394-136 in two games.
Rams are 7-23 on third down, opponents 13-32.
LA is 3-5-1 ATS in its last nine NFC West home games.
Rams lost last two home openers, 31-10/30-23.
QB Stafford is 28-20 as Rams’ QB (was 74-93-1 with Detroit).
49ers are 9-2 SU/8-2-1 ATS in last ten series games.
49ers are 5-1 SU/5-0-1 ATS in last six visits to LA.
Over is 4-2 in last six meetings.
Chiefs (-4).@ Falcons
Chiefs (2-0)
Chiefs pulled out pair of close home wins, 27-20/26-25.
Kansas City won both games despite being minus-4 in turnovers.
Team total: under 2-0
Opponents’ team total: over 2-0
Last 4+ years, KC is 13-16-1 ATS as a road favorite.
QB Mahomes is 91-25 as an NFL starter.
Chiefs are 10-5 ATS in last 15 regular season games vs NFC teams.
Last six years, Chiefs are 6-0 SU/5-1 ATS in road openers.
Over is 16-9 in their last 25 road games.
Falcons (1-1)
Short week for Atlanta after their dramatic win late Monday night.
Falcons are 4-18 on third down, opponents 14-30.
Team total: over 1-1
Opponents’ team total: under 2-0
Atlanta scored five of last six times they had ball Monday night.
Last two years, Falcons were 4-0-1 ATS as a home underdog.
New QB Cousins is 78-71-2 as an NFL starter.
Raheem Morris is 22-39 as an NFL head coach.
Kansas City won last two meetings, 17-14/29-28.
Chiefs are 2-1 SU/ATS in last three visits to Atlanta.
Over is 5-1 in last six meetings.
Monday’s games
Jaguars @ Bills (-5)
Jaguars (0-2)
Jaguars lost first two games, scoring three TD’s on 20 drives.
In two games, Jaguars are 5-19 on third down.
Team total: under 2-0
Opponents’ team total: under 2-0
Jacksonville’s two losses are by 3-5 points.
First two games, Lawrence averaged only 5.8/5.8 yards/pass attempt.
QB Lawrence is 21-33 as an NFL starter.
Under Pederson, Jaguars are 10-9 ATS as an underdog.
Bills (2-0)
Bills won their first two games, scoring 34-31 points.
Buffalo outscored first two opponents 31-11 in second half.
Team total: over 2-0
Opponents’ team total: over 1-1
Buffalo is 4-6 ATS in last 10 games as a home favorite.
Bills are 24-18-2 ATS in last 44 games coming off a win
QB Allen is 70-35 as NFL starter.
Bills have scored 65 points despite being 6-18 on third down.
Jaguars won three of last four series games.
Jacksonville is 1-4 SU/2-3 ATS in last five visits to Buffalo.
Under is 3-1 in last four meetings.
Commanders @ Bengals (-8)
Commanders (1-1)
Washington split first two games with rookie QB Daniels starting.
Commanders won 21-18 LW; they kicked seven FG’s on seven drives.
Team total: over 1-1
Opponents’ team total: over 1-1
Commanders are 6-3 ATS last nine games as a road underdog.
Washington ran for 215 yards LW, converted 7-14 third down plays.
Washington is 6-4 ATS in last 10 games vs AFC opponents.
Commanders are 16-9-1 ATS in last 26 games coming off a win.
Bengals (0-2)
Bengals are 0-2 for the third year in a row.
Bengals lost first two games by total of seven points.
Team total: over 1-1
Opponents’ team total: under 1-0-1
Bengals are 9-4-2 ATS in last 15 games as a home favorite.
QB Burrow is 34-26-1 as an NFL starter.
Last 4+ years, Cincinnati is 17-11-1 ATS coming off a loss.
WR Chase, in a contract dispute, has caught 10 balls for only 97 yards.
Opponents have converted only 7-23 third down plays.
Bengals are 3-1-1 SU in last five meetings.
Washington is 0-1-1 SU/1-1 ATS in last two visits to Cincinnati.
Under is 3-2 in last five series games.
Dog Eat Dog
Underdogs Reign
Underdogs of 7+ points start the season 3-0 SU — the first time 'dogs of 7+ are above .500 SU through two weeks since 1983.
Raiders (+9) over Ravens
Patriots (+8) over Bengals
Bucs (+7.5) over Lions
NFL underdogs of 6+ points are now 8-0 ATS through two weeks — covering the spread by 9.5 PPG. The best start for "big 'dogs" in history.
The biggest underdogs of the week are a combined 9-0 ATS in Weeks 1 and 2.
Biggest Underdog By Week
Week 2 (6-0 ATS): Raiders +9, Bucs +7.5, Saints +6.5, Bears +6.5, Bengals +6.5, Falcons +5.5
Week 1 (3-0 ATS): Patriots +8, Broncos +6.5, Cardinals +6.5
Bad All Around
Passing Game Struggles
Through two weeks, we’ve had 29 QBs throw the ball at least 20 times with under 200 passing yards – that is the most for any season since 2008 and the 2nd-most for any start to the season since 1990.
- In Weeks 1 and 2, only 17 of 64 QBs have gone over 1.5 passing TDs.
- There were also 24 QBs with one or fewer passing touchdowns with 20+ pass attempts in Week 1, the most since the merger in 1970.
- The Saints (40), Bills (42) and Steelers (43) are all 2-0 SU this year, with each having 43 pass attempts or fewer as a team. In the Wild Card era, since 1990, the three lowest total pass attempts by any team to start 2-0 have all come this season. We’ve only seen 12 teams start 2-0 SU with 50 or fewer pass attempts since 1990 – 5 of 12 have come this season.
So far during 2024, we’ve had just five QBs throw for 300+ passing yards. Those five QBs are 2-3 SU and just 0-4-1 ATS. The 1st time since 1980 no team w/300+ pass yards has covered in the first two weeks.
300+ pass yds in 2024:
Week 1: Tua Tagovailoa – 338 (won, no cover vs. JAC)
Week 1: Matthew Stafford – 317 (lost, no cover vs. DET)
Week 2: Geno Smith – 327 (won, pushed vs. NE)
Week 2: Brock Purdy – 319 (lost, no cover vs. MIN)
Week 2: Jared Goff – 307 (lost, no cover vs. TB)
Crowd Fail
Public Bettors Fall Early
The betting public (51%+ of tickets) is 11-20-1 ATS this season, with a $100 bettor down $989 – the 2nd-worst start for the betting public through two weeks since 2003.
Looking overall at how the public fared ATS in the NFL last year, it went 139-115-9 ATS, with a $100 bettor up $1,063 — the best single regular season for the public in the Bet Labs database dating back to 2003.
Only two teams are 0-2 ATS this season, with both games as the public side – Ravens and Rams.
Double Caution
No Big Favorites
As of now, there are no real candidates to close as a double-digit favorite in Week 3.
There's a chance we see no double-digit favorites in Weeks 1-3, which would be the first time that has happened in NFL history.
We saw no double-digit favorites in Weeks 1 or 2 in consecutive seasons for the first time since the merger in 1970. In the 55 seasons since the merger, there has been a double-digit favorite within the first two weeks in 49 of those seasons (ones that didn’t: 2024, 2023, 2020, 2015, 1984 and 1980).
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NFL betting trends and systems for this week’s NFL games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
-Teams that start out 0-2 SU in the NFL are 26-25 SU but 35-15-1 ATS (70%) against 1-1 teams in Week 3 since 2010
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANAPOLIS (-1 vs. CHI), NY GIANTS (+6 at CLE), TENNESSEE (-3 vs. GB), CAROLINA (+5.5 at LVR), BALTIMORE (-1.5 at DAL), LA RAMS (+7 vs. SF), CINCINNATI (-7.5 vs. WAS)
-Rookie Quarterbacks are also on a 26-9 Under the total (74.3%) run in their last 35 Week 1-3 contests.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CHICAGO-IND (o/u at 43.5), DENVER-TB (o/u at 40), WASHINGTON-CIN (o/u at 48)
BLOWOUT GAMES ARE RED FLAGS
NFL teams that beat a point spread by 32 points or more in any given game have gone just 17-15 SU and 10-22 ATS (31.3%) when playing at home the next week since 2012.
System Match (FADE): ARIZONA (+3 vs. DET)
-Teams gaining more than 6.75 yards per play in the first two weeks have continued their impressive play in Week 3 with a record of 18-7 SU and ATS (72%) since 2015.
System Matches (PLAY): INDIANAPOLIS (-1 vs. CHI), MINNESOTA (+2.5 vs. HOU), NEW ORLEANS (-2.5 vs. PHI)
Kansas City 18-5 Over surge in road primetime games
System Match: PLAY OVER in KC-ATL (o/u at 46.5)
* UNDERDOGS have won the last six ATS in the JAC-BUF series
System Match: PLAY JACKSONVILLE ATS (+5 at BUF)
This week’s #1 TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTOR RATINGS projections: LAC-PIT OVER 36 (+3.5)
Avoid These Week 3 NFL Traps
These are NFL betting trend systems that look at the Week 3 slate while considering what the teams have accomplished in their first two games.
Teams that start out 0-2 SU in the NFL are 26-25 SU but 35-15-1 ATS (70%) against 1-1 teams in Week 3 since 2010
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANAPOLIS (-1 vs. CHI), NY GIANTS (+6 at CLE), TENNESSEE (-3 vs. GB), CAROLINA (+5.5 at LVR), BALTIMORE (-1.5 at DAL), LA RAMS (+7 vs. SF), CINCINNATI (-7.5 vs. WAS)
Winless teams in the NFL are 20-35-1 SU but 36-20 ATS (64.3%) in Week 3 when playing as underdogs of +3.5 points or more since 2010
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY GIANTS (+6 at CLE), CAROLINA (+5.5 at LVR), DENVER (+6.5 at TB), LA RAMS (+7 vs. SF), JACKSONVILLE (+5 at BUF)
Teams allowing more than 6.50 yards per play in the first two weeks have rebounded in Week 3 with a record of 26-16 SU and 27-15 ATS (64.3%) since 2015.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (+2.5 at NO)
The league’s best defensive teams after two weeks, or those allowing 14 PPG or less so far, are 25-21 SU but just 14-31-1 ATS (31.1%) in Week 3 since 2005 when favored by 3 points or more.
System Match (FADE): NONE YET (watch for PITTSBURGH vs. LAC)
Teams gaining more than 6.75 yards per play in the first two weeks have continued their impressive play in Week 3 with a record of 18-7 SU and ATS (72%) since 2015.
System Matches (PLAY): INDIANAPOLIS (-1 vs. CHI), MINNESOTA (+2.5 vs. HOU), NEW ORLEANS (-2.5 vs. PHI)
Since 2008, the league’s best undefeated teams after two weeks, those having outscored teams by 25 points or more, are 25-22 SU but 16-29-2 ATS (35.6%) in Week 3.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA CHARGERS (+1.5 at PIT), MINNESOTA (+2.5 vs. HOU), NEW ORLEANS (-2.5 vs. PHI), BUFFALO (-5 vs. JAX)
