NFL Betting News, Match-Ups and Trends For Week 5

NFL odds Week 5: Opening lines, sharp money & line movement
Patrick Everson

Derek Carr, Josh Jacobs and the Raiders face a huge chore on the road Sunday against the Chiefs. The SuperBook opened Kansas City as 12-point chalk Sunday night.

NFL Week 4 is almost in the rearview mirror, NFL Week 5 odds are on the betting board, and a few games are already getting action. Among the noteworthy matchups, the Philadelphia Eagles cross the state to face the Pittsburgh Steelers, and the Las Vegas Raiders meet the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs.

The SuperBook at Westgate's John Murray provided insights on NFL Week 5 opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting. Covers will update this report with NFL sharp picks vs. public bets and line movement throughout the week.

NFL Week 5 odds

These are the current NFL Week 5 odds, as of September October 4.

Teams on bye: Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers

Buccaneers at Bears odds

Opening line
Bears +5.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
This game was already on the move Sunday night at The SuperBook, with bettors on the road favorite.

"We opened the Bucs -5.5 and moved quickly up to -6 off of bets. The Bears did not impress anyone with their performance today," Murray said, alluding to Chicago's 19-11 home loss to Indianapolis. "This line has jumped up considerably from the look-ahead number (last week) of 3. Look for the books to need Chicago big on Thursday."

Panthers at Falcons odds

Opening line
Falcons -3.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
This line saw no movement Sunday night at the SuperBook. Atlanta still has Week 4 work to do, as a 7-point underdog at Green Bay in the Monday night game.

Raiders at Chiefs odds

Opening line
Chiefs -12, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
There was no line movement Sunday night, but Murray expects the public to line up behind the big chalk by next Sunday.

"The Raiders are banged up on D, and that’s scary when you have to face Patrick Mahomes & Co.," Murray said. "Look for the public to hammer Kansas City, especially if the Chiefs win big again on Monday night."

The Chiefs are 10.5-point home favorites against the Patriots, in a game postponed a day after New England QB Cam Newton had a positive COVID-19 test. Newton will miss at least two games.

Broncos at Patriots odds

Opening line
Off, Over/Under Off

Why the line moved
The SuperBook kept this game off the board Sunday night, waiting for more clarity on New England's COVID-19 situation. QB Cam Newton will certainly be out of the lineup, having tested positive Friday.

Rams at Washington odds

Opening line
Rams -10, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
The Rams went off as 13.5-point home favorites against the New York Giants on Sunday, but needed a mid-fourth-quarter touchdown just to get a little breathing room in a 17-9 victory. Early Week 5 NFL bettors weren't impressed, with the first move to Rams -9 on Sunday night at The SuperBook.

Jaguars at Texans odds

Opening line
Texans -6.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
This line had no movement Sunday night at The SuperBook.

Bills at Titans odds

Opening line
Off, Over/Under Off

Why the line moved
The SuperBook kept this game off the board Sunday night, awaiting more clarity on the Titans' COVID-19 situation. Tennessee's Week 4 home game against Pittsburgh was postponed after several players and staff tested positive.

Cardinals at Jets odds

Opening line
Off, Over/Under Off

Why the line moved
This is another game that didn't go up Sunday night at The SuperBook, while oddsmakers awaited clarity on the status of Jets QB Sam Darnold (shoulder).

Eagles at Steelers odds

Opening line
Steelers -8.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
This line was up briefly Sunday evening before The SuperBook, per standard operating procedure, took it down when the Eagles kicked off against the 49ers. There was no early movement, but Murray expects good business this week.

"The Steelers will get a ton of moneyline parlay and teaser handle," Murray said Sunday evening. "But we have seen sharp money showing against the Steelers a couple times this season, and the Eagles are showing some life tonight, so that number may come down."

Bengals at Ravens odds

Opening line
Ravens -12, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Cincinnati rookie QB Joe Burrow got his first win last Sunday, 33-25 over visiting Jacksonville, but bettors are already behind Baltimore at The SuperBook. The Ravens moved from -12 to -13 Sunday night.

Dolphins at 49ers odds

Opening line
49ers -9.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
The SuperBook opened San Francisco -9.5 Sunday evening, but again, per standard operating procedure, the line came down once the 49ers kicked off against the Eagles. The game will go back up Monday morning.

Giants at Cowboys odds

Opening line
Cowboys -8.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
The Giants are 0-4 and the Cowboys 1-3, in a division in which all four teams have losing records. Dallas is still the cream of that subpar crop, though, so The SuperBook made the Cowboys 8.5-point home favorites, and the line moved to -9 Sunday night.

Colts at Browns odds

Opening line
Pick, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
With Indianapolis and Cleveland both notching wins Sunday to improve to 3-1 SU, The SuperBook opted to make this game a pick 'em and see where bettors take it. There was no movement Sunday night.

Vikings at Seahawks odds

Opening line
Seahawks -7.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Seattle is among six unbeaten teams, but is one of only two – along with Buffalo – to stand 4-0, with the rest at 3-0. Minnesota finally cracked the win column with Sunday's victory at Houston, but The SuperBook still opened the Seahawks as more than a touchdown favorite. There was no line movement Sunday night.

Chargers at Saints odds

Opening line
Saints -8, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
The Chargers are on the road and getting more than a touchdown against an NFC South foe for a second straight week, after losing 38-31 at Tampa Bay on Sunday.

"Good win for the Saints today on the road in Detroit," Murray said of New Orleans' 35-29 victory, after trailing 14-0 early. "The Chargers competed hard with the Bucs, but fell a little short. We can call some of their coaching decisions 'questionable' and move on. Look for the Saints to close out every live moneyline parlay and teaser from Sunday."

NFL betting tips for Week 5: Bet Now or Bet Later
Jason Logan

The Seahawks and Vikings have a total of 57.5 points for their Sunday Night Football shootout in Week 5. Since 2006, totals of 57.5 points or higher have gone 7-1 Over/Under.

The early bird may get the worm, but the late worm avoids getting turned into bird shit. It’s all about timing and in NFL betting, getting the best of the numbers often takes perfect timing.

We scan the freshly unpacked NFL Week 5 odds and monitor the early action, giving you our best betting tips when it comes to which spreads and totals you should bet now and which ones you should bet later.

Los Angeles Rams at Washington Football Team (+9): Bet now

The Rams make their third cross-country trip in four weeks when they come to the nation’s capital to take on the Football Team. Los Angeles looked lethargic in its slim win over the New York Giants at home on Sunday, winning 17-9 but failing to cover the lofty 13.5-point spread.

Washington did just enough to cover as a 14.5-point home underdog against the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday, sneaking in the backdoor with a late score in the fourth quarter. The Football Team opened as big as +9.5 for this Week 5 game and early money bumped it down a half a point.

As of Sunday evening (9:30 p.m. ET), Washington is +9 with the juice tipping to -115 at some books, indicating that this could come off the key numbers and drop to +8.5 with early play on the home side. If you’re fading the Rams’ frequent flyer miles, jump on Washington now.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+6.5) at Houston Texans: Bet later

The Texans are the most disappointing team of 2020 so far. Sure, it may not be fair to bash Houston based on its opening schedule. But after taking on the likes of Kansas City, Baltimore and Pittsburgh, losing to Minnesota at home in Week 4 was pretty damning.

The 0-4 Texans opened as 6.5-point home chalk hosting Jacksonville in Week 5 and immediately play came in on the hungry home side. Most books are either dealing hefty vig on Houston -6.5 or have already gone to -7. The Jaguars obviously took advantage of opponents’ lack of preparation in the opening two weeks of the season (2-0 ATS) and have fallen back to earth with two straight losses SU and ATS.

Jacksonville had injuries on both sides of the ball in Week 4, but if you’ve been burned bad by the Texans so far this season and can’t bring yourself to bet on them again, wait this out and see if you can get the Jags +7 or higher.

Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks (Over 57.5): Bet now

Totals continue to climb in the 2020 season, with scoring on a record pace through four weeks. The Week 5 Sunday Night Football total is teetering into that magic Over/Under range. Going back to 2006, totals of 57.5 points or more have gone 7-1 Over/Under.

We know what we’re getting from these two teams: a whole lot of points and not much push back. The Vikings apparently have their offensive wrinkles ironed out, scoring 30 and 31 points in the past two weeks after posting only 11 in Week 2. Dalvin Cook is a fantasy god and WR Justin Jefferson is giving his old LSU quarterback a run for Offensive Rookie of the Year.

And then there’s Russell Wilson. The Seahawks had a bad day at the office in Week 4 and still scored 31 points against Miami. Seattle’s explosive attack should fest on a banged-up Minnesota defense ranked 29th versus the pass. In fact, the only other team to allow more passing plays of 20-plus yards than Minnesota (19) is… Seattle (20).

Grab the Over and enjoy the show Sunday night.

Arizona Cardinals at New York Jets (Under 47): Bet later

Are we still convinced that the Cardinals have a great offense? Arizona has all the pieces on paper. Well, it has Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins. But this is Year 2 under Kliff Kingsbury, and the points were supposed to be falling from the sky. But instead, there’s a scoring drought in the desert, with the Cardinals averaging a pedestrian 24.5 points entering Week 5.

Arizona plays its second straight road game on Sunday, this time traveling across the country for a 1 p.m. ET start in East Rutherford. The Jets are coming off a WTF Thursday nighter with the Broncos, which saw a combined 65 points scored versus a Over/Under total of 41. New York was responsible for 28 of those points but they came against a decimated Denver defense.

Arizona’s stop unit is holding this team together – and that’s saying something after allowing 31 points to Carolina this past weekend. The Week 5 total opened as low as 46.5 points and has climbed to 47. If you’re on the Under in Jersey, wait it out and see if you can get this any higher before clicking submit.

Hot & Not Report - Week 5
Matt Blunt

Week 4 was a wild one from start to finish in the NFL. And while the Tennessee Titans gave all football fans a quick reminder that the dangers of the world are still out there, hopefully the league can add an extra week or two at the end of the season to help deal with potential schedule disruptions going forward.

But as we saw during the MLB season this year, teams that get hit by the virus can eventually go on playing with minimal hindrance, and hopefully all the Titans miss is this one game from Week 4.

Tennessee's betting options in Week 5 are going to come up a bit later though, as this week's piece deals with the streaky runs we've seen from all NFL teams so far this year in one specific situation: the week before they go prime time.

Who's Hot

NFL teams are a combined 12-4 ATS (75%) this year in the week before playing a Sunday Night or Monday Night Football game

This run only counts the traditional prime time slots for games (specifically not the Patriots/Chiefs game that got moved) and it's been quite a run. Split up between days it's still dead even, as the records sit at 6-2 ATS for teams before a SNF game and 6-2 ATS before playing on Monday night.

What's more is that 11 of these 16 teams have put up at least 30 points in those contests before their date with the bright lights, as 'overs' continue to connect at a torrid pace this NFL season.

Not all of these 16 games have turned into great full game 'over' plays though, as it probably should be treated as more of a team total thing for those that are interested.

I mean just on Sunday's action alone we saw all four teams involved in Week 5's SNF and MNF games – Minnesota at Seattle on SNF and L.A. Chargers at New Orleans on MNF – all put up 31 or more points.

So what does this mean for this week's action?

Who do you Follow?

Rams
49ers
Cardinals
Cowboys

Well, to start, it means taking a peek at the Week 6 schedule:

Week 6 SNF - L.A. Rams at San Francisco
Week 6 MNF - Arizona at Dallas

I'm pretty sure there isn't much convincing needed to anyone that's seen a Dallas box score this year to consider a Dallas team total and/or full game 'over' play for Week 5 before that MNF showcase, as this team can't stop a thing on defense and have their offense averaging over 500 yards per game.

The Cowboys host the New York Giants in Week 5 so it's definitely the right opponent for this Cowboys team to potentially get back on track and in the ATS win column for the first time this year, but that's still a lofty number to lay at home with a 1-3 SU team.

Arizona spends Week 5 in their own potential “get right” game too when they visit the New York Jets and the disaster that they've been this year. New York has allowed 30+ to each of their last three opponents, so an 'over' on the Cardinals team total may be a great betting option in Week 5 as well.

The Rams and 49ers also have their own potential “get right” games on tap in Week 5 with SF hosting Miami, and L.A. travelling to Washington. Obviously any SF consideration should be held off on until injury news on their quarterback potentially returning comes down, and I'm sure the Rams offense would like to get back to putting up big numbers after they only managed 17 points against those hapless Giants.

Again team totals 'over' for these two teams might be the better betting path.

That's because all four teams that fit this scenario in Week 5 – Arizona, Dallas, LA, and SF – all have Week 5 opening numbers of them laying at least a TD against their lesser foes. Big spreads like that are definitely going to put this 12-4 ATS run to the test with those big spreads, especially with the Cardinals and Rams laying that chalk away from home.

I would venture a guess that at least one of these teams ends up falling short against the number, but betting against a 12-4 run is a choice every individual has to make for themselves.

Who's Not

NFL teams are a combined 1-7 (12.5%) SU and 2-5-1 ATS (29%) in the week before playing a Thursday Night Football game

The exact opposite seems to be true for those teams that get their prime time spotlight on Thursdays, as now seven of the eight teams going into a TNF game have lost outright the Sunday before. The lone winner was Tampa Bay's 38-31 win over the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday, and even that result was not looking good for the Bucs for the majority of that game.

Tampa's opponent this Thursday is Chicago and they fell to Indy on Sunday, while Cincinnati and Cleveland each started the year 0-1 SU before meeting on TNF in Week 2.

Miami and Jacksonville followed suit in losing their games on Sunday before squaring off on TNF in Week 3 – it was the Dolphins and Jags who account for the two ATS wins in this role – and Denver and the Jets got blown out in Week 3 before they entertained everyone with that sloppy looking shootout on TNF this past week.

Who do you Fade?

Buffalo Bills
Kansas City Chiefs

All of that brings me back to the Tennessee Titans though, as they are scheduled to host Buffalo in Week 5 before the Bills face the defending champs in Kansas City on TNF in Week 6.

Week 6 TNF - Kansas City at Buffalo

If the Titans are able to go in Week 5 against Buffalo, this trend suggests that fading the 4-0 SU Buffalo Bills would be the way to go, although who's healthy enough to go for Tennessee is always going to be a big question hanging over the week.

The other team to fade here would be those Kansas City Chiefs in their Week 5 game against Las Vegas, and after opening as -12 favorites, going the outright route in fading the Chiefs won't be for the risk averse.

Vegas is going to be getting a huge ML price in this spot, and like the “Hot” trends above, this scenario will really put this run to the test.

Tech Trends - Week 5
Bruce Marshall

Week 5 of the NFL season kicks off on Thursday, Oct. 8 and we've identified betting trends and angles for all 16 matchups. We also have "Tech Edge" leans on the side or total for each game too.

Thursday, Oct. 8

TAMPA BAY at CHICAGO

Note that underdog team 3-1 in Bears games this season.
If Bears are dogs here, note only 1-5 as dog since 2019 after 9-2-1 as home dog previous three seasons.
Arians teams “over” 30-13 dating to mid 2016 & Arizona days.

Tech Edge: “Over” and slight to Bears, based on “totals” and recent trends.

Sunday, Oct. 11

CAROLINA at ATLANTA

Into Green bay last Monday, Falcs 0-3 vs. line TY, though they’ve won and covered last five in series.
Atlanta also “over” first three in 2020.
Panthers “over” 14-6-1last 21 since late 2018 (2-1-1 “over” for Rhule).

Tech Edge: “Over” and slight to Falcons, based on “totals” and series trends.

LAS VEGAS at KANSAS CITY

Into Patriots game last Monday, Chiefs 12-0 SU, 11-1 vs. line last 12 since mid 2019.
KC has won last 5 SU vs. Raiders and 4-1 vs. line in those games.
Also covered four straight in series at Arrowhead after road-oriented trends prior.
Raiders “over” first four in 2020 after 6-1 “under” to close 2019.

Tech Edge: Chiefs and slight to “over,” based on team and ‘totals” trends.

DENVER at NEW ENGLAND

Belichick 15-6 vs. line as reg season home chalk since early 2017 (2-0 in 2020).
Broncos 7-3 last ten as dog for Fangio.

Tech Edge: Slight to Patriots, based on team trends.

L.A. RAMS at WASHINGTON

McVay narrowly failed to get cover at Bills, so he’s 7-1 SU and vs. line last eight early kickoffs in Eastern Time Zone or London.
Rams are also 8-3 vs. points last 11 as visitor.
Football Team on 7-13-1 spread skid since late 2018, 3-7-1 last eleven vs. line at FedEx.
Washington “over” 6-1 last seven, and Rams “over” last four away.

Tech Edge: Rams and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

JACKSONVILLE at HOUSTON

Jags have covered 4 of last 6 as dog, though Houston has won last 3 SU in series, covering three.
But Texans no wins or covers last five in reg season, 2-8-1 overall last eleven vs. line since late 2019.
Last four “under” in series.

Tech Edge: “Under” and Jags, based on “totals” and recent trends.

BUFFALO at TENNESSEE

Bills covered at Raiders but still just 1-4 vs. line last five away. Though they have won and covered last two years vs. Titans.
Bills “over” all four in 2020 after “under” 15-4 previous 19.
Titans 12-4 SU with Tannehill at QB and 3-0 SU but 0-3 vs. line in 2020.
Tennessee also on 12-4 “over” run.

Tech Edge: Slight to “over” and Titans, based on “totals’ and team trends.

ARIZONA at N.Y. JETS

Jets 0-4 SU and vs. line after Denver loss.
Kingsbury 12-7-1 vs. spread since taking over Cards LY.
Arizona surprising 3-0-1 “under” in 2020.

Tech Edge: Cards, based on recent trends.

PHILADELPHIA at PITTSBURGH

Into last Sunday night at 49ers, Birds no wins or covers last four since late 2019, also 7-13 vs. spread since beginning of 2019, so perhaps that was a corner-turning win and cover at Levi's.
Even with SF win, Philly just 14-23 vs. line since Super Bowl win over Pats.

Tech Edge: Steelers, based on recent trends.

CINCINNATI at BALTIMORE

Ravens had 14-game SU reg season win streak snapped by Chiefs.
Also were 11-1 vs. line previous 12 reg season games prior to KC.
Cincy has actually covered 4 of last 5 in series though lost last meeting 49-13 in 2019.
Bengals 10-3 last 13 as visiting dog.

Tech Edge: Slight to Ravens, based on team trends.

MIAMI at SAN FRANCISCO

Dolphins 11-5 last 16 vs. spread since mid 2019 for Flores.
Miami also 6-2 last 8 as road dog.
Dolphins also “over” 8-3 last 11 since mid 2019 (2-2 “over” in 2020).
After Eagles last Sunday night, Niners still 7-4 “over” their last 11, but just 3-5-1 last 9 as Levi’s chalk.

Tech Edge: “Over” and Dolphins, based on “totals” and team trends.

N.Y. GIANTS at DALLAS

Cowboys have now won and covered last six in series.
G-Men however are 2-0 as road dog TY and now 11-3 in role since 2018.
Dallas 0-4 vs. line in 2020.

Tech Edge: Slight to Giants, based on team trends.

INDIANAPOLIS at CLEVELAND

Browns have now covered alst two after 5-12-1 spread skid, and are 4-2-1 last 7 vs. line at home.
Colts, however, have won and covered last three in 2020.

Tech Edge: Slight to Colts, based on recent trends.

MINNESOTA at SEATTLE

Vikes have notched a pair of spread covers in a row, though did lose on Monday, last Dec. 2 at Seattle (37-30).
Hawks have squeezed out a couple of home covers in their 3-0 start, also “over” 4-0-1 since late 2019.

Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.

Monday, Oct. 12

L.A. CHARGERS at NEW ORLEANS

Saints just 2-5 last seven vs. line at Superdome.
New Orleans “over” first four in 2020 and 6 of 7 since late 2019.

Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.

301TAMPA BAY -302 CHICAGO
TAMPA BAY is 21-7 ATS (13.3 Units) after scoring 35 points or more last game since 1992.

451CAROLINA -452 ATLANTA
ATLANTA is 21-42 ATS (-25.2 Units) in home games vs. good offenses (>=24 PPG) since 1992.

453LAS VEGAS -454 KANSAS CITY
LAS VEGAS are 30-67 ATS (-43.7 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=350 yards/game since 1992.

455DENVER -456 NEW ENGLAND
NEW ENGLAND is 192-137 ATS (41.3 Units) after the first month of the season since 1992.

457LA RAMS -458 WASHINGTON
LA RAMS are 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) off a home no-cover where the team won as a favorite since 1992.

459JACKSONVILLE -460 HOUSTON
JACKSONVILLE is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game. in the last 3 seasons.

461BUFFALO -462 TENNESSEE
TENNESSEE is 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) in home games vs. excellent punt return teams, more than 12 yards per return since 1992.

463ARIZONA -464 NY JETS
NY JETS are 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) versus poor rushing defenses - allowing >=4.5 rushing yards/carry in the last 3 seasons.

465PHILADELPHIA -466 PITTSBURGH
PITTSBURGH is 70-39 ATS (27.1 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game since 1992.

467CINCINNATI -468 BALTIMORE
CINCINNATI is 23-45 ATS (-26.5 Units) vs. good rushing teams (>130 RY) since 1992.

469MIAMI -470 SAN FRANCISCO
MIAMI is 12-28 ATS (-18.8 Units) after allowing 400 or more total yards/game in their last 3 games since 1992.

471NY GIANTS -472 DALLAS
NY GIANTS are 9-0 ATS (9 Units) in road games vs. poor defenses (>=5.65 YPP) in the last 3 seasons.

473INDIANAPOLIS -474 CLEVELAND
CLEVELAND is 34-59 ATS (-30.9 Units) vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game since 1992.

475MINNESOTA -476 SEATTLE
SEATTLE is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) after allowing 300 or more passing yards in their last game in the last 2 seasons.

477LA CHARGERS -478 NEW ORLEANS
NEW ORLEANS are 9-1 ATS (7.9 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game over the last 2 seasons.

NFL Week 5 Injuries, Weather
Patrick Everson

Browns running back Nick Chubb suffered an MCL sprain in Sunday's upset of the Cowboys and will miss a few weeks. Cleveland dropped from pick to a 2.5-point home underdog against Indianapolis.

NFL Week 4 is in the rearview mirror, NFL Week 5 odds are on the board, and several betting factors are already in play. That includes key injury news, most notably on Cleveland Browns running Back Nick Chubb and New York Jets quarterback Sam Darnold.

Week 5 Injuries

Cleveland Browns: Nick Chubb suffered an MCL sprain in Sunday’s upset of Dallas and could be out six weeks. This week’s game against the Colts opened at pick, but the Browns dropped to 2.5-point home underdogs Monday at The SuperBook at Westgate. The total also ticked down a notch, from 48 to 47.5.

New York Jets: Sam Darnold (shoulder) is uncertain for Sunday’s home game against Arizona. Interestingly, though, the Jets moved from +7.5 to +6.5 Monday at The SuperBook.

Los Angeles Chargers: Running back Austin Ekeler (hamstring) is expected to go on injured reserve and miss several weeks. But the first move in the line for L.A.’s Monday nighter at New Orleans was toward the Chargers, from +8 to +7.5, and the total was stable at 52.

Week 5 Weather

Philadelphia Eagles at Pittsburgh Steelers: The early forecast suggests a 50 percent chance of rain by way of occasional showers in Pittsburgh on Sunday.

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens: Baltimore is also looking at occasional rain showers Sunday, with the early prediction of a 50 percent chance of precipitation.

Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks: There’s pretty much always a chance of rain in Seattle. For the Week 5 Sunday-nighter, the early forecast predicted a 40 percent chance of showers.

Last edited by StarDust Bum; Today at 12:43 AM.

Buccaneers vs. Bears Week 5 Odds, Preview
Matt Blunt

Week 5 hasn't even begun yet and all the news surrounding the NFL this week concerns the positive tests that are popping up more often with numerous teams across the league.

It will be interesting to see how the league deals with these situations in terms of the big picture, getting extra bye weeks later on or even the possibility of forfeitures.

But for now we've got to at least operate like these games will be kicked off per the schedule that's currently out there.

Betting Resources

Week 5 Matchup: NFC vs. NFC
Venue: Soldier Field
Location: Chicago, IL
Date: Thursday, Oct. 8, 2020
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: NFL Network

Tom Brady and the Buccaneers seek their fourth consecutive win as Tampa Bay travels to Chicago on Thursday. (AP)

For Week 5, it's the Buccaneers and Bears who get the week started with their TNF contest, as it's Tampa Bay who is the first team this year that enters a TNF contest coming off a straight up win.

So far that hasn't seemed to matter a whole lot to the market in thinking the Bucs will extend their winning streak, as an opening line of Tampa Bay -6 has been bet down day by day to the current number of Tampa -3.5.

The injuries the Bucs are dealing with have a lot to do with that as many of their pass catchers are officially listed as questionable now, but are those losses really worth about three points to the line?

Line Movements

Spread: Tampa Bay -3.5
Money-Line: Tampa Bay -180, Chicago +160
Total: 44.5

2020 Betting Stats

Tampa Bay

Overall: 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS, 3-1 O/U
Road: 1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS, 1-1 O/U
Offense PPG: 30.0 (Rank 8)
Defense PPG: 23.0 (Rank T-8)

Chicago

Overall: 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS, 2-2 O/U
Home: 1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS, 0-2 O/U
Offense PPG: 21.3 (Rank 25)
Defense PPG: 20.3 (Rank 7)

Handicapping the Total

The last time quarterbacks Tom Brady and Nick Foles shared a football field together was Super Bowl LII, where it was Foles and the Philadelphia Eagles who got the better of New England and broke up what could have eventually been a three-peat for New England. That Super Bowl finished with a 41-33 score, and I wouldn't expect anywhere near that many points in this contest.

The two QB's are with new teams now, but Foles really struggled in his first start with the Bears, and Brady can't be too enthused about the injury situation for his pass catchers, as he could end up going out there with numerous guys he's barely worked with.

Everyone knows Brady is as meticulous as it gets in this game, he loves the timing routes, and when you get just a couple of days to practice with new faces - or familiar faces with next to no practice time this week because of injury treatments being done – the success rate of putting up big offensive numbers on a short week drastically goes down.

That's part of the thinking behind all the Bears support on the point spread pushing that number down, but it hasn't quite yet hit the totals market, largely because the big picture in the NFL so far this year with totals is that it's impossible to bet 'unders' these days with the way scoring is up and 'overs' are cashing at an absurd clip.

However, eventually these O/U results should start to regress back to the mean, as totals continue to climb each week and market sentiment continues to disregard the 'under' as a viable option. And let's not forget about the lack of offensive penalties we've seen this year that typically stall drives and decreases scoring.

False starts are drastically down thanks to minimal crowd noise to deal with, but offensive holding calls are also down about 60% through four weeks and that's a penalty that refs could arguably call on every snap if they wanted to.

All it will really take for more 'under' results to come in is for the NFL refs to add a few more offensive holding calls to each contest, extending drives to burn more clock (shortening the game) or stalling drives altogether and forcing more punts – something that's also drastically down this year (for a variety of reasons).

I'm not saying that the Bucs or Bears will get hit hard with offensive holding calls in this game specifically, but this common refrain you hear everywhere in the sports betting content space right now about how “you just can't take unders in the NFL right now” because all these recent games are connecting on 'overs' has reached a fever pitch.

If there ever was a time to go contrarian for contrarian sake, all this 'over' sentiment combined with the highest weekly average totals we've ever seen in the NFL would be a pretty good spot to do so wouldn't it?

Tampa comes into this game with a 3-1 O/U record on the year, and the lone 'under' they did have could be considered a bit of a bad beat for 'over' players in that if fell five points short of cashing and there were only five combined total points scored in the 2nd half of the Tampa/Denver game a few weeks back. Bettors see that history and even more love is likely to come in.

Chicago sits at 2-2 O/U this year, but both of their 'unders' have come at home, and the two 'overs' came against Detroit and Atlanta; two teams that tripped over their own feet in coughing up those victories to Chicago.

This Bears team just can't really move the ball on offense no matter who the QB is, and with both home games for Chicago finishing with exactly 30 total points, I'm sure 'over' bettors will have no problem conveniently bypassing that specific Bears history in this spot, because who wants to be holding an 'under' ticket in the NFL right now. Right?

Well, for one, I do, specifically in this game, and likely in many more across the board this week as I do believe this is a great time to take the contrarian route with totals as high as they are.

Remember, even though a number of 44.5 may not look as high as all the other lofty numbers on the board this week, oddsmakers are still sick of getting beaten by all these 'overs' and have no real choice but to shade almost every game a half-point, a full point etc higher than what the true line should probably be.

Chicago hasn't put up 20 points yet themselves at home – they've averaged 14 points per home game this year- and Tampa's average point total on the road clocks in at 25.5 PPG right now, nearly 10 points fewer than the 34.5/game they've averaged at home so far.

Yes, those numbers come from a very limited sample size, but combining those two applicable numbers (Tampa's 25.5/game on the road and Chicago's 14/game at home) still only basically gives you a total of 40. That's before all the injuries and short week, etc are factored in.

And having totals shaded about a FG higher than home/road point total splits isn't just applicable to this Bucs/Bears game either, it's littered across a handful of games on the Week 5 betting board. For example, Dallas has put up the most average points at home with 39/game, while their opponent this week – the NY Giants – have put up 11/game on the road. That suggests that the total should be around 50, but yet it's sitting at 54.

Now I know there are definite flaws in using that line of thought as the be all end all, but it's more to show the point that there is going to come a point where these adjustments in totals are going to bring many more 'under' results with them, and I believe it starts in Week 5 with this TNF game.

Head-to-Head History

Sep. 30, 2018 - Chicago 48 vs. Tampa Bay 10, Bears -3, Over 46
Sep. 17, 2017 - Tampa Bay 29 vs. Chicago 7, Buccaneers -7, Under 44

Handicapping the Side

This side is really something that's a much tougher bet to pull the trigger on, as the best of the Bears number is long gone now, so it's really hard to recommend a Bears play at such a worse number.

If you really do believe in the Bears that much this week, I'd suggest going the ML route for the bigger score as it is. But if you do that, you are going up against Tom Brady's 9-1 SU record all time on TNF and do you really want to be on the other side of that?

Granted, many of those TNF wins for Brady came when his New England teams would be matched up against far weaker AFC East rivals like Buffalo, NY Jets, or Miami, but is this Chicago team really that much better than some of those squads were?

Yes, Chicago is 3-1 SU, but I already mentioned that two of those victories were gifted to them by Atlanta and Detroit, and the third win was a 17-13 win over the hapless Giants where Chicago nearly blew a 17-0 lead.

I've never been one to be shy about grabbing points with bad teams before, and at +5.5 or +6, backing the Bears at home against a banged up Bucs team makes a lot of sense.

But at +3.5 I want nothing to do with Chicago, nor do I really want to back Tampa until an active roster is known. Adds up to an easy pass on this side.

Key Injuries

Tampa Bay

WR Mike Evans: Ankle - Questionable
RB Leonard Fournette: Ankle - Doubtful
WR Chris Godwin: Hamstring - Out
TE O.J. Howard: Achilles - Out
RB LeSean McCoy: Ankle - Out
WR Scotty Miller: Hip, Groin - Questionable
WR Justin Watson: Chest - Out

Chicago

S Deon Bush: Hamstring - Out
S Sherrick McManis: Hamstring - Doubtful
WR Darnell Mooney: Shoulder - Questionable

NFL
Armadillo's Write-up

Week 5

Buccaneers (3-1) @ Chicago (3-1)
— Tampa Bay won its last three games, scoring 31-28-38 points.
— Three of Bucs’ four games went over the total.
— Bucs held all three opponents to 87 or fewer rushing yards.
— Tampa Bay covered four of five games as a road favorite.

— Chicago lost 19-11 last week, after opening with three straight wins, by four points each.
— Bears trailed three of their four games at halftime.
— Chicago had 18 penalties for 183 yards the last two weeks.
— Bears are 13-3-1 ATS in last 17 games as a home underdog.

— Bears won six of last nine series games.
— Home side won four of last five series games.
— Tampa Bay lost 21-13/48-10 in last two visits here.

Panthers (2-2) @ Atlanta (0-4)
— Carolina won its last two games, outscoring foes 39-14 in first half.
— Panthers converted 23-47 third down plays this season.
— Carolina averaged 7.2+ yards/pass attempt in every game.
— Panthers are 7-8 ATS in their last 15 games as a road underdog.

— Falcons lost their first four games, giving up 34.5 ppg.
— Three of four Atlanta games went over the total- they’re scoring 26.5 ppg.
— Short week for the Falcons after Monday’s loss in Green Bay.
— Atlanta 5-8 ATS in its last 13 games as a home favorite.

— Falcons won eight of last nine series games, winning last five, four by 12+ points.
— Panthers lost last five visits to Atlanta, all by 7+ points.

Raiders (2-2) @ Kansas City (4-0)
— Raiders split their first four games, which all went over the total.
— Las Vegas allowed 30+ points in three of their four games.
— Raider opponents converted half (24-48) their 3rd down plays.
— Las Vegas is 9-15 ATS in its last 24 games as a road underdog.

— Short week for the Chiefs, after beating New England Monday.
— Kansas City won its first four games (3-1 ATS), scoring 29.3 ppg.
— Under is 3-0-1 in Chief games this season.
— Chiefs are 8-2 ATS in last ten games as a home favorite.

— Chiefs are 10-1 in last 11 series games, winning last five, four by 11+ points.
— Raiders lost last seven games in Arrowhead, losing 35-3/40-9 in last two.

Broncos (1-3) @ New England (2-2)
— Broncos started three different QB’s in their 1-3 start.
— Denver lost three of first four games, but covered three of the four.
— Broncos have only two takeaways, are minus-6 in turnovers.
— Denver is 6-3 ATS in its last nine games as a road underdog.

— Unclear who will play QB; probably Stidham getting his first NFL start.
— Short week for Patriots, who’ve run ball for 179.8 yards/game.
— New England had two empty trips to red zone LW, which prompted the QB change.
— Patriots are 26-13-1 ATS in last 40 games as a home favorite.

— Patriots are 7-3 in last ten series games; last meeting was 2017.
— Broncos lost last five visits to Foxboro; their last visit here was 2014.

Rams (3-1) @ Washington (1-3)
— Rams won three of first four games; this is already their third east coast game.
— LA allowed 19 or fewer points in their three wins, 35 in their loss.
— Rams outscored opponents 59-23 in second half this season.
— Under McVay, LA is 13-8 ATS as a road favorite.

— Washington lost its last three games, giving up 31.7 ppg.
— Washington allowed 160-158-144 rushing yards the last three weeks.
— Redskins have been outscored 75-24 in the first half this season.
— Washington is

— Teams split last eight series games; McVay’s first loss as Rans’ coach was vs Washington in Week 2 of 2017, teams’ last meeting.
— McVay came to the Rams after being an assistant in Washington.
— Teams split last four series games played here.

Jaguars (1-3) @ Houston (0-4)
— Jaguars lost their last three games, giving up 32 ppg.
— Three of four Jacksonville games went over the total.
— Last two games, Jaguars converted only 5-20 third down plays.
— Jacksonville is 5-9-1 ATS in last fifteen games as a road underdog.

— Houston lost its first four games, giving up 28.3 ppg- they fired the coach Monday.
— Texans don’t have a takeaway yet , are minus-5 in turnovers.
— Houston has been outscored 55-36 in the 2nd half of games.
— Texans are 8-13-1 ATS in last 22 games as a home favorite.

— Texans won 8 of last 10 series games, winning last four, three by 13+ points.
— Jaguars lost five of last six visits here, losing 20-3/13-12 in last two.

Bills (4-0) @ Tennessee (3-0)
— Buffalo won its first four games, scoring 30.8 ppg.
— All four Buffalo games went over the total.
— Bills have converted 24-47 third down plays this year.
— Buffalo is 16-12-1 ATS in its last 29 road games.

— Tennessee won its first three games by combined total of six points.
— Titans are scoring 26.7 ppg; they’ve only had one turnover (+4) so far.
— Tennessee had COVID-related issues last week, didn’t play.
— Titans are 7-9-1 ATS in last 17 games at home.
— AFC South teams are 3-8 ATS outside their division, 2-3 at home.

— Buffalo won last three series games, by total of nine points.
— Average total in last three series games, 24.3.
— Bills won 14-13/14-7 in their last two trips to Nashville.

Cardinals (2-2) @ NJ Jets (0-4)
— Cardinals lost their last two games, giving up 26-31 points.
— Three of four Arizona games stayed under the total.
— Cardinals were held to 133 passing yards LW; they gave up 444 yards to Carolina.
— Last 4+ years, Arizona is 3-5 ATS as a road favorite.

— Jets lost their first four games, giving up 32.8 ppg.
— Three of four New York games went over the total.
— Jets scored only 22 points in their last seven red zone drives.
— New York is 4-6-1 ATS in its last 11 games as a home underdog.

— Jets are 6-3 in this series; they lost last meeting 28-3 at Arizona in 2016.
— Cardinals are 1-3 in series games in the Garden State; their lone was in 1975.

Eagles (1-2-1) @ Pittsburgh (3-0)
— Eagles are off to a 1-2-1 start; they led three of four games at halftime.
— Philly allowed 26.8 ppg this year, allowing 13 TD’s on 45 drives.
— Eagles had 3 takeaways (+2) LW, after having one (-7) in first three games.
— Philly is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 games as a road underdog.

— Steelers won their first three games, scoring 26-26-28 points- they didn’t play last week, because of the Titans’ COVID issues.
— Three teams Pittsburgh beat have a combined record of 1-10.
— Steelers have run ball for 139.7 yards/game this season.
— Pittsburgh is 10-13 ATS in last 13 games as a home favorite.

— Philly won seven of last ten series games.
— Home team won six of last seven series games.
— Eagles lost three of their last four visits to the Steel City.

Bengals (1-2-1) @ Baltimore (3-1)
— Bengals covered last three games (1-1-1 SU), scoring 28.7 ppg.
— Cincy had 8 plays of 20+ yards LW; they had 6 in first three games.
— Bengals’ two losses this season were by total of eight points.
— Cincy is 16-8 ATS in its last 24 games as a road underdog.

— Baltimore scored 31+ points in its three wins, 20 in their loss.
— Three of four Raven games stayed under the total.
— Baltimore has outscored opponents 47-20 in second half.
— Ravens are 9-16 ATS in last 25 games as a home favorite.

— Baltimore won last three series games, by 3-6-36 points.
— Bengals lost 24-21/23-17 in their last two visits to Charm City.

Dolphins (1-3) @ San Francisco (2-2)
— Miami has been outgained in all four games.
— Dolphins converted 14 of last 31 third plays.
— Miami scored 82 points in its last three games (8 TD’s on 29 drives).
— Dolphins are 10-16 ATS in their last 26 games as a road underdog.

— 49ers split their first four games; road team won all four games.
— Niners scored 31-36 points in their wins; 20-20 in their losses.
— QB Garoppolo isn’t expected to play here; could be 3rd-stringer Beathard.
— 49ers are 5-12-1 ATS in last 18 games as a home favorite.

— Dolphins won three of last four series games.
— Teams split six meetings here; Miami’s last visit here was 2012.

NJ Giants (0-4) @ Dallas (1-3)
— Giants lost their first four games, scoring 11.8 ppg; they didn’t score a TD in their last two games, going 20 drives since their last touchdown.
— Three of four Giant games stayed under the total.
— Last three games, Giants have been outscored 43-12 in first half.
— Giants covered 12 of last 15 games as a road underdog.

— Dallas lost three of first four games, giving up 42 ppg in last three games.
— Cowboys gave up 508 yards to Cleveland last week, 307 yards on the ground.
— Last three Dallas games went over the total.
— Cowboys are 10-11-1 ATS in last 22 games as a home favorite, 0-2 this year.

— Giants’ OC Jason Garrett was the Dallas head coach from 2011-19.
— Dallas won last six series games, scoring 36 ppg in last three.
— Giants lost last three visits to Dallas, by 16-7-18 points.

Colts (3-1) @ Cleveland (3-1)
— Colts won their last three games, giving up 9.7 ppg (3 TDs on 31 drives)
— Last three Indy games stayed under the total.
— Colts outgained Jacksonville by 204 yards in their only loss.
— Last 4+ years, Colts are 3-3 ATS as a road favorite.

— Cleveland won its last three games, scoring 35-34-49 points.
— Browns ran ball for 307 yards LW, are averaging 203.5 ypg on the ground.
— Last two weeks, Cleveland was +7 in turnovers- they won field position the last three weeks, by 13-13-12 yards.
— Browns are 9-8-1 ATS in their last 18 home games.

— Indy won eight of last nine series games, winning last three, by total of 8 points.
— Colts won their last five visits to Cleveland, all by 5 or fewer points.
— Last time Cleveland beat the Colts? 2011.

Vikings (1-3) @ Seattle (4-0)
— Minnesota lost three of first four games, despite scoring 30+ points three times.
— Vikings ran ball for 228-162 yards in last two games.
— Minnesota has 22 plays of 20+ yards this year, which is good.
— Vikings are 4-8-1 ATS in last 13 games as a road underdog.

— Seahawks won/covered their first four games, scoring 35.5 ppg.
— Seattle has 19 touchdowns on 42 drives this season.
— All four Seahawks games went over the total.
— Seattle is 8-12-1 ATS in last 21 games as a home favorite (2-0 TY)

— Seahawks won their last six games with Minnesota; they beat Vikings 37-30 LY.
— Vikings lost their last four visits to Seattle, all by 7+ points.

Chargers (1-3) @ New Orleans (2-2)
— Chargers lost last three games, all started by rookie QB Herbert.
— LA’s three losses were by 3-5-7 points.
— Three of four Charger games stayed under the total.
— Chargers are 8-7-2 ATS in last 17 games as a road underdog.

— Saints split their first four games, despite scoring 30+ points three times.
— All four New Orleans games went over the total.
— Saints allowed 34-37 points in their losses; 23-29 in their wins.
— New Orleans is 7-12 ATS in its last 19 games as a home favorite.

— Drew Brees was the Chargers’ QB from 2001-05.
— Saints won last three series games, by 1-7-5 points.
— Chargers won four of five games in the Superdome; they lost 31-24 in last visit here, in 2012.

NFL

Week 5

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Trend Report
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Thursday, October 8

Tampa Bay @ Chicago
Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 15 of Tampa Bay's last 18 games
Tampa Bay is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Chicago's last 7 games at home
Chicago is 20-5 SU in its last 25 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay

Sunday, October 11

Buffalo @ Tennessee
Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing Tennessee
Buffalo is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tennessee's last 7 games at home
Tennessee is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

Jacksonville @ Houston
Jacksonville
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 6 games when playing Houston
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games
Houston
Houston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Jacksonville
Houston is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games when playing Jacksonville

Las Vegas @ Kansas City
Las Vegas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Las Vegas's last 5 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Las Vegas's last 5 games
Kansas City
Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

Arizona @ NY Jets
Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games when playing NY Jets
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games
NY Jets
NY Jets is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Jets's last 5 games when playing Arizona

Carolina @ Atlanta
Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Carolina's last 14 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Carolina's last 10 games
Atlanta
Atlanta is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Carolina
Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Carolina

LA Rams @ Washington
LA Rams
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Rams's last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Rams's last 5 games on the road
Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 5 games when playing at home against LA Rams
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Washington's last 7 games

Philadelphia @ Pittsburgh
Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games on the road
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing Philadelphia

Cincinnati @ Baltimore
Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Baltimore
Baltimore
Baltimore is 15-2 SU in its last 17 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games

Miami @ San Francisco
Miami
Miami is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games
Miami is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
San Francisco
San Francisco is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Miami
San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Miami

Denver @ New England
Denver
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games when playing on the road against New England
Denver is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
New England
New England is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Denver
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Denver

NY Giants @ Dallas
NY Giants
NY Giants is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Giants's last 5 games on the road
Dallas
Dallas is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing NY Giants
Dallas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing NY Giants

Indianapolis @ Cleveland
Indianapolis
Indianapolis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Indianapolis is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing Cleveland
Cleveland
Cleveland is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games at home

Minnesota @ Seattle
Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Minnesota's last 8 games when playing on the road against Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing Seattle
Seattle
Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Seattle's last 8 games when playing at home against Minnesota

Monday, October 12

LA Chargers @ New Orleans
LA Chargers
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 5 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 6 games on the road
New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing LA Chargers
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New Orleans's last 7 games

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 5

Thursday, October 8

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TAMPA BAY (3 - 1) at CHICAGO (3 - 1) - 10/8/2020, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 38-63 ATS (-31.3 Units) in October games since 1992.
TAMPA BAY is 49-71 ATS (-29.1 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
CHICAGO is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) as a home underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
CHICAGO is 55-83 ATS (-36.3 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CHICAGO is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 1-0 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 1-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, October 11

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CAROLINA (2 - 2) at ATLANTA (0 - 3) - 10/11/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 85-59 ATS (+20.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 4-0 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 4-0 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LAS VEGAS (2 - 2) at KANSAS CITY (3 - 0) - 10/11/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 3-1 against the spread versus LAS VEGAS over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 4-0 straight up against LAS VEGAS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DENVER (1 - 3) at NEW ENGLAND (2 - 1) - 10/11/2020, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 272-209 ATS (+42.1 Units) in all games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 272-209 ATS (+42.1 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 209-153 ATS (+40.7 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 132-91 ATS (+31.9 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 68-44 ATS (+19.6 Units) in October games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 73-48 ATS (+20.2 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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LA RAMS (3 - 1) at WASHINGTON (1 - 3) - 10/11/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS are 150-193 ATS (-62.3 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS are 23-40 ATS (-21.0 Units) against NFC East division opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS are 77-107 ATS (-40.7 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 94-126 ATS (-44.6 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 94-126 ATS (-44.6 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 68-99 ATS (-40.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 94-126 ATS (-44.6 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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JACKSONVILLE (1 - 3) at HOUSTON (0 - 4) - 10/11/2020, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 3-1 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 4-0 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BUFFALO (4 - 0) at TENNESSEE (3 - 0) - 10/11/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 125-161 ATS (-52.1 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 2-0 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 2-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ARIZONA (2 - 2) at NY JETS (0 - 4) - 10/11/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY JETS are 12-23 ATS (-13.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
NY JETS are 12-23 ATS (-13.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NY JETS are 10-23 ATS (-15.3 Units) against NFC West division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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PHILADELPHIA (1 - 2 - 1) at PITTSBURGH (3 - 0) - 10/11/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 111-81 ATS (+21.9 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 55-35 ATS (+16.5 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 65-37 ATS (+24.3 Units) in October games since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 74-44 ATS (+25.6 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 79-55 ATS (+18.5 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CINCINNATI (1 - 2 - 1) at BALTIMORE (3 - 1) - 10/11/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 42-64 ATS (-28.4 Units) in October games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 3-1 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 3-1 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MIAMI (1 - 3) at SAN FRANCISCO (2 - 2) - 10/11/2020, 4:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NY GIANTS (0 - 4) at DALLAS (1 - 3) - 10/11/2020, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 35-20 ATS (+13.0 Units) in road games in October games since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 4-0 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 4-0 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANAPOLIS (3 - 1) at CLEVELAND (3 - 1) - 10/11/2020, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) as a road favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
INDIANAPOLIS is 111-83 ATS (+19.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MINNESOTA (1 - 3) at SEATTLE (4 - 0) - 10/11/2020, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 40-63 ATS (-29.3 Units) in October games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 47-70 ATS (-30.0 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 2-0 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 2-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, October 12

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LA CHARGERS (1 - 3) at NEW ORLEANS (2 - 2) - 10/12/2020, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in October games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.
LA CHARGERS are 130-96 ATS (+24.4 Units) in road games since 1992.
LA CHARGERS are 130-96 ATS (+24.4 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
LA CHARGERS are 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
LA CHARGERS are 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) in dome games since 1992.
LA CHARGERS are 51-30 ATS (+18.0 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 31-50 ATS (-24.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

NFL
Dunkel

Week 5

Thursday, October 8

Tampa Bay @ Chicago

Game 301-302
October 8, 2020 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
133.934
Chicago
131.666
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tampa Bay
by 2 1/2
39
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay
by 5 1/2
44
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago
(+5 1/2); Under

Sunday, October 11

Carolina @ Atlanta

Game 451-452
October 11, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Carolina
127.016
Atlanta
130.326
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 1 1/2
61
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
by 3 1/2
54 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Carolina
(+3 1/2); Over

Cincinnati @ Baltimore

Game 467-468
October 11, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cincinnati
124.577
Baltimore
141.098
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Baltimore
by 16 1/2
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
by 13
52
Dunkel Pick:
Baltimore
(-13); Under

Philadelphia @ Pittsburgh

Game 465-466
October 11, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
125.351
Pittsburgh
137.585
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 12
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
by 7
45
Dunkel Pick:
Pittsburgh
(-7); Over

Buffalo @ Tennessee

Game 461-462
October 11, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Buffalo
134.427
Tennessee
136.858
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tennessee
by 2 1/2
55
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tennessee
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
Tennessee
N/A

Jacksonville @ Houston

Game 459-460
October 11, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Jacksonville
123.645
Houston
125.975
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 2 1/2
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 6 1/2
54
Dunkel Pick:
Jacksonville
(+6 1/2); Under

Las Vegas @ Kansas City

Game 453-454
October 11, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Las Vegas
126.785
Kansas City
150.115
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 23 1/2
45
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 11 1/2
56
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
(-11 1/2); Under

Arizona @ NY Jets

Game 463-464
October 11, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Arizona
129.138
NY Jets
117.358
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona
by 12
45
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona
by 6 1/2
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Arizona
(-6 1/2); Under

LA Rams @ Washington

Game 457-458
October 11, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Rams
129.117
Washington
127.164
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Rams
by 2
50
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Rams
by 9 1/2
45 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(+9 1/2); Over

Miami @ San Francisco

Game 469-470
October 11, 2020 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
126.063
San Francisco
139.637
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Francisco
by 13 1/2
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Francisco
by 9 1/2
47
Dunkel Pick:
San Francisco
(-9 1/2); Over

Indianapolis @ Cleveland

Game 473-474
October 11, 2020 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Indianapolis
130.609
Cleveland
136.717
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cleveland
by 6
68
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Indianapolis
by 2 1/2
47
Dunkel Pick:
Cleveland
(+2 1/2); Over

Denver @ New England

Game 455-456
October 11, 2020 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Denver
123.442
New England
140.522
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 17
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 10 1/2
No Total
Dunkel Pick:
New England
(-10 1/2); N/A

NY Giants @ Dallas

Game 471-472
October 11, 2020 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Giants
123.432
Dallas
127.426
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Dallas
by 4
36
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Dallas
by 9 1/2
54
Dunkel Pick:
NY Giants
(+9 1/2); Under

Minnesota @ Seattle

Game 475-476
October 11, 2020 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
130.210
Seattle
139.524
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 9 1/2
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 7
58
Dunkel Pick:
Seattle
(-7); Under

Monday, October 12

LA Chargers @ New Orleans

Game 477-478
October 12, 2020 @ 8:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Chargers
124.481
New Orleans
134.947
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
by 10 1/2
50
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 7 1/2
52
Dunkel Pick:
New Orleans
(-7 1/2); Under