Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites.
NFL
Week 5
Trend Report
Tampa Bay vs Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Tampa Bay's last 8 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Tampa Bay is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Atlanta's last 8 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Atlanta's last 12 games when playing Tampa Bay
NY Jets vs Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Jets's last 5 games when playing Minnesota
NY Jets is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing Minnesota
Minnesota is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing NY Jets
Carolina vs Chicago
Carolina is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Carolina is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Chicago
Chicago is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Chicago is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Buffalo vs Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Buffalo's last 7 games when playing Houston
Buffalo is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 7 games when playing Buffalo
Houston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
Baltimore vs Cincinnati
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Baltimore's last 7 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Baltimore's last 7 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Cincinnati's last 7 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Cincinnati's last 7 games when playing at home against Baltimore
Indianapolis vs Jacksonville
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 15 of Indianapolis's last 23 games
Jacksonville is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
Jacksonville is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
Miami vs New England
Miami is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New England
Miami is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing New England
New England is 12-3 SU in its last 15 games when playing at home against Miami
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New England's last 9 games
Cleveland vs Washington
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Cleveland's last 12 games on the road
Cleveland is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Washington
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 7 games at home
Arizona vs San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona's last 5 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco's last 5 games when playing Arizona
San Francisco is 17-3 SU in its last 20 games at home
Las Vegas vs Denver
Las Vegas is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Denver
Las Vegas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Denver's last 9 games when playing at home against Las Vegas
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Denver's last 15 games when playing Las Vegas
Green Bay vs LA Rams
Green Bay is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Rams
Green Bay is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing LA Rams
LA Rams is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
LA Rams is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
NY Giants vs Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Giants's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Giants's last 6 games when playing Seattle
Seattle is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing NY Giants
Seattle is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing NY Giants
Dallas vs Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games
Dallas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
Pittsburgh is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
New Orleans vs Kansas City
New Orleans is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
NFL
Armadillo's Write-up
Week 5
Thursday’s game
Buccaneers @ Falcons (-1.5)
Buccaneers (3-1)
Tampa Bay (+7) upset Detroit 2016 in its only road game.
Bucs scored 37-20-33 points in wins; they lost 26-7 to Denver.
Bucs are 6-3 ATS in last nine NFC South road games.
Team total: under 2-2
Opponents’ team total: over 2-2
Bucs are 8-1 ATS last nine games as a road underdog.
QB Mayfield is 45-49 as an NFL starter, 13-10 with Buccaneers.
Tampa Bay is 11-8-2 in last 21 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Under is 17-9 in last 26 Tampa Bay road games.
Bucs are 7-4 ATS in last 11 games coming off a win.
Falcons (2-2)
Atlanta’s two wins are by 1-2 points.
Falcons scored 22-26 points in wins, 10-17 in losses.
Falcons are 10-38 on third down, opponents 27-57.
Team total: under 2-2
Opponents’ team total: under 3-1
Atlanta is 4-15-1 ATS last 20 games as a home favorite.
Falcons are 1-7 ATS last eight games coming off a win.
Last 2+ years, Atlanta is 4-3 ATS in NFC South home games.
New QB Cousins is 79-72-2 as an NFL starter.
Under is 3-1 in their games this year.
Raheem Morris is 23-40 as NFL head coach; he was coach of the Buccaneers from 2009-11.
Tampa Bay won seven of last nine series games.
Buccaneers are 4-1 SU/3-2 ATS in last five visits to Atlanta.
Best NFL Week 5 betting trends
The trend: Since the start of the 2020 season, the Atlanta Falcons have gone 6-18-1 ATS in games after a win
The trend: The Vikings are 4-0 SU and ATS this season… for the full-game, first half, and first quarter… while also going Over their team total in each game
The trend: The Browns have gone Under their team total in every game this season
The trend: The Bengals have gone Over in eight of their last 10 games
The trend: The Bills have gone Under in 14 of their last 18 road games
The trend: The Colts are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games against the Jaguars and 0-8 ATS in their last eight games in Jacksonville
The trend: The Bears have won seven straight games at home
The trend: The Dolphins have covered the spread in seven straight games against the Patriots
The trend: These teams are a combined 6-2 to the Over this season ARZ vs SF
The trend: The Broncos have covered the first quarter spread in 18 of their last 23 games
The trend: The Packers have gone Over in 10 of their last 13 games, the Rams have gone Over in nine of their last 12 games
The trend: The Giants have gone Under in every game this season
The trend: Only three of the Steelers' last 22 home games have surpassed 44 total points scored
The trend: Patrick Mahomes has thrown an interception in every game this season while the Saints are third in the NFL with six picks
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Top NFL Things To Know
Unexpected Treasure
Darnold, Vikings Become Contenders
The Minnesota Vikings are the story of the NFL through four weeks. They are 4-0 SU/ATS full game. 4-0 SU/ATS in first half, 4-0 SU/ATS in the 1st quarter and their team totals are 4-0 to the over.
In the last 20 years, the Vikings are the 3rd team to start 4-0 SU/ATS, including 4-0 1H ATS with the 2008 Titans and the 2007 Patriots.
Not only is it a great start, but an unexpected one. Minnesota had a preseason win total of 6.5. The only teams since 1990 to start 4-0 SU with a win total below 7 are the 2024 Vikings, 2009 Broncos, 1999 Rams and 1995 Rams.
The 2009 Broncos and 1995 Rams finished the season a combined 7-17 SU, both missing the playoffs. While the 1999 Rams went 9-3 the rest of the way and won the Super Bowl.
Foot Long
Big Underdogs Start Quick
NFL underdogs of 6+ points are now 9-8 SU and 14-2-1 ATS (87.5%) through four weeks — covering the spread by 7.3 PPG.
In the last 20 years, 65% ATS for 6+ pt dogs is the closest any season has been to this mark through four weeks.
If we go back to 1960, here are the best seasons through four weeks for 6+ pt dogs:
2024: 14-2-1 ATS (87.5%)
1982: 3-1 ATS (75%)
1978: 18-6-1 ATS (75%)
Dogs of 6+ are 9-8 SU through four weeks. For comparison, dogs of 6+ were 3-14 SU through four weeks last year and were 20-87-1 SU (18.7%) between 2019-23 through the first four weeks of the season. Dogs of 6+ haven’t been above .500 SU through four weeks since 1983.
Ice Cold
Public Bettors Struggle
The betting public (51%+ of tickets) are 22-38-2 ATS this season, with a $100 bettor down $1,795 – the worst start for the betting public through four weeks in the last 20 years.
Public by week:
+ Week 4: 5-8-1 ATS
+ Week 3: 6-10 ATS
+ Week 2: 5-10-1 ATS
+ Week 1: 6-10 ATS
Looking overall at how the public fared ATS in the NFL last year, they went 139-115-9 ATS, with a $100 bettor up $1,063 — the best single regular season for the public in the Bet Labs database dating back to 2003.
Tight Lines
Small Spread Early Season
The average point spread for an NFL favorite through four weeks is sitting around -4.2 PPG this season.
That is the lowest mark for any season through the first four weeks since 1982, when there was an NFL strike where Weeks 3-10 were missed, so the data for Weeks 1, 2, 11, 12 was 3.99.
Prior to that, this is the lowest mark through 4 weeks since 1960.
No. 1 Stunner
Caleb Can Join Eli
Caleb Williams has started his NFL career 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS, including 2-0 SU/ATS as a favorite.
Since the merger in 1970, only 1 of 33 QBs taken 1st overall has won and covered their first three starts as a favorite: Eli Manning.
A Different Game
Big Passing Days
So far during 2024, we’ve had just 15 QBs throw for 300+ passing yards. Those 15 QBs are 6-9 SU and just 3-11-1 ATS.
Through two NFL weeks, we had five QBs throw for 300+ yds. None of those teams had covered the spread (0-4-1 ATS). The 1st time since 1980 no team w/300+ pass yds has covered in the 1st two weeks.
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NFL Streaks Betting System #5: NFL teams that have won their last four games outright while outscoring opponents by fewer than 30 total points in that span have gone 56-14 SU and 46-22-2 ATS (67.6%) in the next game when favored.
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-5.5 vs. NO)
NFL teams that lose on a point spread by 30 points or more in any given game have rebounded nicely the next week when playing as road underdogs of 3 points or more, going 8-20-2 SU but 21-8-1 ATS (72.4%) in their last 30 tries.
System Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (+7 at SF)
NFL teams that lose while allowing fewer than 12 points have also fared well in their follow-up game, going 18-7 SU and 21-4 ATS (84%) since 2015.
System Match (PLAY): NY JETS (+3 vs. MIN)
Atlanta has 13 straight Unders in Primetime games (including 7 straight on Thursday Night Football)
System Match: PLAY UNDER in TB-ATL (o/u at 44)
Pre-bye week system #1:
Play on any team heading into their bye week when facing a divisional opponent, assuming opponent is not in the same situation. (Record: 53-21-2 ATS since 2013, 71.6%, +29.9 Units, 40.4% ROI, Grade 73)
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+1 at NE)
Since the start of the 2020 season, rookie starting quarterbacks have taken care of business in the home favorite role, going 29-8 SU and 26-10-1 ATS (72.2%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO (-4 vs. CAR), WASHINGTON (-3 vs. CLE), DENVER (-2.5 vs. LVR)
GREEN BAY is 9-1 SU and 10-0 ATS in the last 10 vs. LA Rams
System Match: PLAY GREEN BAY (-3 a LAR)
Retread head coaches have been brutal bets as favorites in their first seasons with new franchise. As favorites since 2014, they’ve gone 79-64 SU but just 44-88-11 ATS, for 33.3%!
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA (-1.5 vs. TB), WASHINGTON (-3 vs. CLE)
#1 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the MAKINEN BETTORS RATINGS projections: HOUSTON +1 vs BUF (+6.4 difference)
BLOWOUT GAMES ARE RED FLAGS
NFL teams that lose on a point spread by 30 points or more in any given game have rebounded nicely the next week when playing as road underdogs of 3 points or more, going 8-20-2 SU but 21-8-1 ATS (72.4%) in their last 30 tries.
System Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (+7 at SF)
CRAZY LOW SCORING GAMES COMMAND ATTENTION
NFL teams that have won a game despite scoring less than 12 points in the victory have carried the momentum through the next game with a 18-12 SU and 20-9-1 ATS (69%) record.
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (-2.5 vs. LVR)
Alternatively to #11 above, NFL teams that lose while allowing fewer than 12 points have also fared well in their follow-up game, going 18-7 SU and 21-4 ATS (84%) since 2015.
System Match (PLAY): NY JETS (+3 vs. MIN)
Top Team Situational NFL Betting Trends
These are some of the top situational NFL betting trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action:
* ARIZONA is 9-17 ATS (34.6%) vs. divisional opponents since 2020
* ARIZONA is 26-19 ATS (57.8%) in road/neutral games since 2019
* ARIZONA is 24-17 ATS (58.5%) as an underdog since 2021
Systems Match: 2 PLAYs, 1 FADE of ARIZONA (+7 at SF)
* ATLANTA is 17-33 ATS (34%) at home since 2018
* ATLANTA is 31-56 ATS (35.6%) as a favorite since 2014
Systems Match: FADE ATLANTA (-1.5 vs. TB)
* BALTIMORE is 48-56 ATS (46.2%) as a favorite since 2015
* BALTIMORE is 39-20 ATS (66.1%) in road/neutral games since 2017
Systems Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of BALTIMORE (-2.5 at CIN)
* BUFFALO is 35-27 ATS (56.4%) in non-divisional conference games since 2017
* BUFFALO is 26-20 ATS (56.5%) in road/neutral games since 2019
Systems Match: PLAY BUFFALO (-1 at HOU)
* CAROLINA is 17-30 ATS (36.2%) in non-divisional conference games since 2018
System Match: FADE CAROLINA (+4 at CHI)
* CHICAGO is 29-40 ATS (42%) in non-divisional conference games since 2015
System Match: FADE CHICAGO (-4 vs. CAR)
* CINCINNATI is 24-13 ATS (64.9%) as an underdog since 2020
System Match: PLAY CINCINNATI (+2.5 vs. BAL)
* CLEVELAND is 12-7 ATS (63.2%) vs. non-conference foes since 2020
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (+3 at WAS)
* DALLAS is 12-5 ATS (70.6%) when coming off SU loss since 2021
* DALLAS is 18-12 ATS (60%) in road/neutral games since 2021
Systems Match: PLAY DALLAS (+2.5 at PIT)
* DENVER is 16-33 ATS (32.7%) as a favorite since 2017
* DENVER is 94-58 UNDER the total (61.8%) since 2015
Systems Match: FADE DENVER (-2.5 vs LVR), also PLAY UNDER in LVR-DEN (o/u at 36)
* GREEN BAY is 21-13 ATS (61.8%) when coming off SU loss since 2018
System Match: PLAY GREEN BAY (-3 at LAR)
* JACKSONVILLE is 25-39 ATS (39.1%) when coming off SU loss since 2018
* JACKSONVILLE is 18-26 ATS (40.9%) as a favorite since 2018
* JACKSONVILLE is 34-22 UNDER the total (60.7%) since 2021
Systems Match: FADE JACKSONVILLE (-3 vs. IND), also PLAY UNDER in IND-JAX (o/u at 46)
* KANSAS CITY is 11-5 ATS (68.8%) vs. non-conference foes since 2021
System Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY (-5.5 vs NO)
* LA RAMS are 22-13 ATS (62.9%) when coming off SU loss since 2019
* LA RAMS are 42-34 UNDER the total (55.3%) since 2020
Systems Match: PLAY LA RAMS (+3 vs GB), also PLAY UNDER in GB-LAR (o/u at 48.5)
* LAS VEGAS is 23-13 ATS (63.9%) vs. divisional opponents since 2018
* LAS VEGAS is 33-46 ATS (41.8%) in road/neutral games since 2015
Systems Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of LAS VEGAS (+2.5 at DEN)
* MIAMI is 33-21 ATS (61.1%) vs. divisional opponents since 2015
* MIAMI is 48-35 ATS (57.8%) as an underdog since 2014
Systems Match: PLAY MIAMI (+1 at NE)
* MINNESOTA is 21-24 ATS (46.7%) when coming off SU win since 2019
* MINNESOTA is 30-16 ATS (65.2%) vs. non-conference foes since 2014
* MINNESOTA is 51-38 OVER the total (57.3%) since 2019
Systems Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of MINNESOTA (-3 vs. NYJ), also PLAY OVER in NYJ-MIN (o/u at 40.5)
* NEW ORLEANS is 26-17 ATS (60.5%) when coming off SU loss since 2018
* NEW ORLEANS is 35-18 ATS (66%) in road/neutral games since 2018
Systems Match: PLAY NEW ORLEANS (+5.5 at KC)
* NY GIANTS are 48-22 UNDER the total (68.6%) since 2020
System Match: PLAY UNDER in NYG-SEA (o/u at 43.5)
* NY JETS are 12-26 ATS (31.6%) vs. non-conference foes since 2015
* NY JETS are 19-40 ATS (32.2%) in road/neutral games since 2017
Systems Match: FADE NY JETS (+3 vs. MIN)
* PITTSBURGH is 20-28 ATS (41.7%) as a favorite since 2018
* PITTSBURGH is 95-62 UNDER the total (60.5%) since 2015
Systems Match: FADE PITTSBURGH (-2.5 vs. DAL), also PLAY UNDER in DAL-PIT (o/u at 44)
* SAN FRANCISCO is 36-25 ATS (59%) when coming off SU win since 2019
* SAN FRANCISCO is 19-13 ATS (59.4%) vs. divisional opponents since 2019
Systems Match: PLAY SAN FRANCISCO (-7 vs. ARI)
* SEATTLE is 33-20 ATS (62.3%) when coming off SU loss since 2015
System Match: PLAY SEATTLE (-6 vs. NYG)
* WASHINGTON is 19-9 ATS (67.9%) when coming off SU win since 2019
* WASHINGTON is 39-30 UNDER the total (56.5%) since 2020
Systems Match: PLAY WASHINGTON (-3 vs. CLE), also PLAY UNDER in CLE-WAS (o/u at 44.5)
