Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites.
NFL
Week 6
Trend Report
San Francisco vs Seattle
San Francisco is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Seattle
San Francisco is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games
Seattle is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against San Francisco
Jacksonville vs Chicago
Jacksonville is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Jacksonville's last 9 games
Chicago is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Chicago is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Arizona vs Green Bay
Arizona is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games when playing Green Bay
Green Bay is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games when playing Arizona
Tampa Bay vs New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing New Orleans
Tampa Bay is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Indianapolis vs Tennessee
Indianapolis is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Indianapolis is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
Tennessee is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Indianapolis
Tennessee is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Indianapolis
Washington vs Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Washington's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games
Baltimore is 14-5 SU in its last 19 games
Houston vs New England
Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New England
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Houston
New England is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Houston
Cleveland vs Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Cleveland's last 13 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Cleveland's last 13 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 7 games at home
Philadelphia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Cleveland
Pittsburgh vs Las Vegas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing Las Vegas
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing on the road against Las Vegas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Las Vegas's last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
Las Vegas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
LA Chargers vs Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of LA Chargers's last 9 games on the road
Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against LA Chargers
Denver is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against LA Chargers
Detroit vs Dallas
Detroit is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Detroit is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Dallas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit
Dallas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
Atlanta vs Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Atlanta's last 7 games when playing on the road against Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Atlanta's last 8 games when playing Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Carolina's last 7 games when playing at home against Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Carolina's last 10 games at home
Cincinnati vs NY Giants
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Cincinnati's last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Giants's last 6 games
NY Giants is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Buffalo vs NY Jets
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing NY Jets
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Jets's last 5 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Jets's last 5 games when playing at home against Buffalo
NFL
Armadillo's Write-up
Week 6
Thursday’s game
49ers (-3) @ Seahawks
49ers (2-3)
49ers lost three of their last four games SU.
49ers are 0-2 on road, losing 23-17 at Vikings, 27-24 at Rams.
49ers are 15-12-1 ATS in last 28 games as a road favorite.
Team total: under 3-2
Opponents’ team total: over 3-1-1
49ers outscored last three opponents 57-20 in first half.
49ers were outscored 44-20 in 2nd half of last three games.
QB Purdy is 23-8 as an NFL starter.
San Francisco is 8-5-1 ATS last 14 NFC West road games.
49ers are 10-7 ATS in last 17 games coming off a loss.
Seahawks (3-2)
Seattle lost last two games, giving up 42-29 points.
QB’s they beat so far: Nix, Brissett, Thompson. Not great.
Seahawks are 6-3 ATS last nine games as a home underdog.
Team total: over 5-0
Opponents’ team total: over 4-1
QB Smith is 33-39 as an NFL starter, 21-20 with Seattle.
Seahawks are 3-6 ATS in last nine NFC West home games.
Seahawks are 18-14 in last 32 games coming off a loss.
Seattle has converted 11 of last 32 third down plays.
Over is 4-1 in their games this season.
49ers won last five series games (4-1 ATS)
SF won 31-13/21-13 in its last two visits to Seattle.
Under is 4-1-1 in last six meetings.
NFL
Armadillo's Write-up
Week 6
Sunday’s games
Jaguars vs Bears (-2.5) (@ London)
Jaguars (1-4)
Jaguars got first win LW; Lawrence threw for 371 yards.
In five games, Jaguars are 14-54 on third down.
Last four games, Jaguars were outscored 74-32 in first half.
Team total: under 3-2
Opponents’ team total: under 3-1
Jacksonville has been outscored 35-9 in last 2:00 of each half.
Jaguars are 6-2 ATS last eight games as a dog on the road.
QB Lawrence is 22-35 as an NFL starter.
Last 10 years, Jaguars are 9-30 ATS vs NFC opponents.
Jaguars won three of their last four games in England.
Jaguars are 12-19 ATS in last 31 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Bears (3-2)
Bears scored 24-24-36 points in their wins, 13-16 in losses.
Last two games, Chicago scored eight TD’s on 20 drives.
Bears have outscored opponents 63-32 in second half.
Team total: under 2-2-1
Opponents’ team total: under 5-0
Under Eberflus, Bears are 5-3-1 ATS as favorites.
Chicago is 10-7-1 ATS in last 18 games vs AFC teams.
Bears are 7-9 ATS in last 16 games coming off a win.
Last two games, Chicago was +5 in turnovers.
Last nine years, Bears are 6-3 ATS in pre-bye games.
Bears won four of six series games.
Five of the six games were decided by 13+ points.
Texans (-7) @ Patriots
Texans (4-1)
Texans have wins by 2-6-4-3 points.
Their only loss was 34-7 at 5-0 Minnesota.
Last three games, Texans were outscored 44-20 in 2nd half.
Team total: under 4-1
Opponents’ team total: over 3-2
Since 2016, Texans are 2-9-2 ATS as road favorites (0-2 TY).
Houston is 5-9 ATS in last 14 games coming off a win.
2nd-year QB Stroud is 14-8 as an NFL starter.
Houston doesn’t have a takeaway in last three games (minus-5 TO’s).
Under is 4-0 in their last four games.
Patriots (1-4)
New England lost last four games, outscored 54-26 in first half.
Patriots have scored only five TD’s on their first 50 drives.
Patriots are 30-43 since Tom Brady left town.
Team total: under 3-1-1
Opponents’ team total: over 3-2
NE is 1-9-1 ATS in last ten games as a home underdog.
New England scored total of 26 points in their last three games.
Patriots were 11-40 on third down in those games.
Patriots are 4-11 ATS in last 15 games coming off a loss.
Rookie QB Maye gets his first NFL start here.
New England won seven of last nine series games.
This is Texans’ first visit to Foxboro since 2018.
Over is 8-4 in last 12 meetings.
Commanders @ Ravens (-6.5)
Commanders (4-1)
Commanders won/covered last four games, scoring 38-42-34 points in last three.
First time since 1991 that Washington scored 38+ points in consecutive games.
Last four games, Commanders scored 14 TD’s, kicked 12 FG’s on 34 drives.
Team total: over 4-1
Opponents’ team total: under 3-2
Commanders are 8-3 ATS last 11 games as a road underdog (2-1 TY).
Washington converted 29 of last 52 third down plays.
Commanders are 19-9-1 ATS in last 29 games coming off a win.
Washington is 8-4 ATS in last 12 games vs AFC opponents.
Over is 4-1 in Washington games this year.
Ravens (3-2)
Baltimore won last three games, scoring 28-35-41 points.
Ravens have outscored opponents 75-45 in first half.
Ravens have run ball for 211.1 yards/game.
Team total: over 3-2
Opponents’ team total: over 4-1
Ravens are 6-3 ATS in last nine games as a home favorite.
Over is 4-1 in Baltimore’s games this year.
QB Jackson is 63-25 as an NFL starter.
Baltimore is 16-17 ATS in last 33 games coming off a win.
Ravens are 9-4 ATS in last 13 games vs NFC teams.
Teams split their last six series games.
Teams split their two meetings in Baltimore.
Under is 4-2 in last six meetings.
Browns @ Eagles (-8.5)
Browns (1-4)
Cleveland scored 17-18-15-16-13 points in its 1-4 start.
Browns are 12-66 on 3rd down so far, 9-15 on 4th down.
Browns have gained 230-297-217-152-215 yards so far.
Team total: under 5-0
Opponents’ team total: over 4-1
Browns are 5-10-1 ATS last 16 games as a road underdog.
QB Watson is 38-35 as an NFL starter, 9-8 with Browns.
Cleveland is 11-4-1 ATS in last 15 games coming off a loss.
Cleveland is 13-8-1 ATS in last 22 games vs NFC teams (0-3 TY).
Browns have averaged 2.7/4.8/3.3/4.3/3.0 yards/pass attempt.
Eagles (2-2)
Eagles have turned ball over eight times in four games (minus-6).
Eagles lost their only home game, 22-21 to Atlanta.
Philly has outscored opponents 24-10 in last 2:00 of each half.
Team total: under 3-1
Opponents’ team total: over 3-1
Philly won/covered its last three post-bye games.
Under Sirianni, Eagles are 11-8-1 ATS as a home favorite.
QB Hurts is 38-22 as an NFL starter.
Eagles are 2-7 ATS in last nine games coming off a loss.
Philly converted 18 of last 40 third down plays.
Eagles won four of last five series games.
Browns lost 29-10/30-10 in last two visits to Philly.
Under is 3-0-1 in last four meetings.
Cardinals @ Packers (-5)
Cardinals (2-3)
Arizona scored 28-24 points in splitting two road games (2-0 ATS)
Cardinals are 3-7 ATS last 10 games coming off a win.
In its two wins, Arizona outscored foes 31-7 in second half.
Team total: over 3-2
Opponents’ team total: under 3-2
QB Murray is 30-40-1 SU as an NFL starter.
Cardinals are 16-8 ATS last 24 games as a road underdog.
Last three games, Arizona converted 8-30 on third down (14-24 first two games).
Last three games, opponents are 21-35 on third down.
Over is 4-1 in Arizona games this year.
Packers (3-2)
Green Bay’s two losses were 34-29/31-29.
Packers have 14 takeaways in five games (+7 turnovers)
Green Bay outscored last three foes 46-16 in second half.
Team total: over 3-2
Opponents’ team total: under 3-2
Green Bay is 5-7-1 ATS in last 13 games as a home favorite.
Green Bay is 16-12-1 ATS in last 29 games coming off a win.
Last two games, Packers were 5-20 on third down.
Green Bay is 26-16-1 ATS in last 43 home games.
Over is 3-2 in their first five games.
Teams split their last eight meetings.
This is Cardinals’ first visit to Lambeau since 2018.
Under is 6-2-1 in last nine series games.
Buccaneers @ Saints (-2)
Buccaneers (3-2)
Buccaneers went to New Orleans on Tuesday to avoid a hurricane.
Bucs scored 33-30 points in their last two games (7 TD’s/19 drives).
Bucs are 6-4 ATS in last nine NFC South road games.
Team total: over 3-2
Opponents’ team total: over 3-2
Bucs are 8-2 ATS last ten games as a road underdog.
QB Mayfield is 45-50 as an NFL starter, 13-11 with Buccaneers.
Tampa Bay is 11-9-2 in last 22 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Under is 17-10 in last 27 Tampa Bay road games.
Bucs are 5-2-1 ATS in last eight games coming off a loss.
Saints (2-3)
New Orleans lost its last two games, by 3-2-13 points.
Saints scored 47-44 points in wins, 12-24-13 in losses.
New Orleans has outscored opponents 89-52 in first half.
Team total: over 3-2
Opponents’ team total: under 3-2
Saints are 7-9 ATS last 16 games as a home favorite.
Last week, Saints ran ball only 15 times, for 46 yards.
Last 5+ years, New Orleans is 20-13-1 ATS coming off a loss.
QB Carr is 74-91 as an NFL starter.
Saints are 9-11-2 ATS in las t22 games with spread of 3 or fewer points,
Tampa Bay won three of last four series games.
Bucs are 4-3 SU/ATS in last nine trips to Bourbon Street.
Under is 7-2 in last nine meetings.
Colts (-1) @ Titans
Colts (2-3)
All six Colts games were decided by 6 or fewer points.
Indy lost its two road games, 16-10 at Packers, 37-34 at Jaguars.
Just like LY, Indy is better off with its backup QB than Richardson.
Team total: over 3-2
Opponents’ team total: over 3-2
Last two weeks, Colts converted 15-29 third down plays.
Indy is 6-2 ATS in last eight games coming off a loss.
Flacco is 113-89 as an NFL starter, 5-10 since 2020.
Colts are 8-5 ATS in last 13 games as a road favorite.
Under Steichen, Colts are 10-5-1 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less points.
Titans (1-3)
QB Rudolph came off bench, led Titans to win in last game.
Tennessee is minus-7 in turnovers, have had two punts blocked.
Titans are 12-10-2 ATS in last 24 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Team total: under 3-1
Opponents’ team total: over 2-1-1
Tennessee won its last eight post-bye games (7-0-1 ATS)
Titans outgained three of four opponents, led three games at half.
Tennessee was 0-5 ATS LY in games coming off a win.
QB Levis is 4-9 as an NFL starter; Rudolph is 8-5-1.
Tennessee has averaged 5.3/5.3/4.9/4.6 yards/pass attempt.
Tennessee is 5-3 in last eight meetings.
Colts are 9-3 SU/ATS in last 12 visits to Nashville.
Under is 4-1 in last five series games.
Chargers (-3) @ Broncos
Chargers (2-2)
Chargers lost their last two games, scoring 10-10 points.
QB Herbert has had a sore ankle; check status.
Bolts are 18-25-2 ATS in last 45 games coming off a loss.
Team total: over 2-2
Opponents’ team total: under 3-1
Chargers are 6-3-2 ATS last 11 games as road favorites.
Chargers are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five post-bye games.
Chargers are 2-6-1 ATS in last nine AFC West road games.
QB Herbert is 32-35 as an NFL starter.
Under is 4-0 in their first four games.
Broncos (3-2)
Denver won last three games, giving up 7-9-18 points.
Broncos outscored last four opponents 43-14 in second half.
Denver is only 17-69 on third down conversions.
Team total: over 3-2
Opponents’ team total: under 3-2
Denver is 6-2 ATS last eight games as a home underdog.
Last four opponents scored four TD’s on 45 drives.
Denver is 8-4-1 ATS in last 13 AFC West home games.
Broncos are 10-16 ATS in last 26 games coming off a win.
Three of Denver’s last four games stayed under the total.
Broncos are 8-3 in last eleven series games.
Chargers lost their last five visits to Denver (0-4-1 ATS).
Under is 4-1 in last five series games.
Steelers (-3) @ Raiders
Steelers (3-2)
Steelers allowed 10-6-10 points in wins, 27-20 in losses.
Last two games, Pittsburgh was outscored 23-6 in first half.
Since 2021, Steelers are 3-2 ATS as a road favorite.
Team total: under 4-1
Opponents’ team total: under 4-1
Last two games, opponents converted 17-30 on third down.
QB Fields is 13-30 as an NFL starter (3-2 with Steelers).
Pittsburgh is 14-9 in its last 23 games coming off a loss.
Steelers are 14-8-1 ATS in last 23 games with spread of 3 or less points.
Under is 4-1 in their games this season.
Raiders (2-3)
Raiders have nine turnovers in five games (minus-7).
Las Vegas is 10-8-1 ATS in last 19 games following a loss.
Raiders’ two wins were by 3-4 points, losses by 12-14-16.
Team total: over 3-2
Opponents’ team total: over 3-2
Since 2019, Raiders are 9-9-1 ATS as a home underdog.
Overall, Raiders are 12-6-1 ATS in last 19 home games.
Opponents have converted only 18 of 60 third down plays.
QB Minshew is 17-25 as an NFL starter; Raiders are his 4th team.
Over is 3-1 in their last four games.
Teams split their last eight meetings.
Steelers won 23-18 in Vegas LY; they lost last four visits to Oakland.
Under is 4-0 in last four series games.
Lions (-3.5) @ Cowboys
Lions (3-1)
Lions are 8-4 SU/10-2 ATS in last 12 post-bye games.
Detroit has converted 22 of 44 third down plays.
Opponents have converted 13 of 41 third down plays.
Team total: under 3-1
Opponents’ team total: under 3-1
Lions outscored last two opponents 46-17 in first half.
Detroit won its only road game 20-13 (-3) at Arizona.
Under Campbell, Detroit is 15-8 ATS in games coming off a win.
Under is 3-1 in their games this season.
Lions have outscored opponents 17-3 in last 2:00 of each half.
Cowboys (3-2)
Cowboys gave up 17-15-17 points in wins, 44-28 in losses.
Road team won/covered all five of their games.
Dallas is 21-15 ATS in last 36 games coming off a win.
Team total: over 3-2
Opponents’ team total: under 3-2
Since 2018, Dallas is 6-2 ATS as a home underdog.
QB Prescott is 78-48 as an NFL starter.
Cowboys allowed 14.2/12.1 yards/pass attempt in their losses.
Cowboys allowed 2.7/6.8/4.3 yards/pass attempt in their wins.
Over is 3-2 in Dallas games this season.
Cowboys last five meetings (3-2 ATS).
Lions are 2-7 SU/4-5 ATS in last nine visits to Dallas.
Over is 8-2 in last ten series games.
Falcons (-6) @ Panthers
Falcons (3-2)
Atlanta’s three wins are by 1-2-6 points.
Falcons scored 22-26-36 points in wins, 10-17 in losses.
Falcons won their only road game, 22-21 at Philly.
Team total: over 3-2
Opponents’ team total: under 3-2
Last two years, Atlanta was 1-4 ATS as a road favorite.
Falcons are 2-7 ATS last nine games coming off a win.
Atlanta is 11-6 ATS in last 17 NFC South road games.
QB Cousins is 80-72-2 as an NFL starter.
Falcons are 16-52 on third down, opponents 33-68.
Panthers (1-4)
Carolina’s four losses are by 37-23-10-26 points.
Carolina is 0-2 at home (26-3 to Chargers, 34-24 to Bengals)
Panthers have been outscored 105-45 in first half.
Team total: under 3-2
Opponents’ team total: over 4-1
Carolina is 3-6-1 ATS in last 10 games as a home underdog.
Panthers are 4-1-1 ATS in last six NFC South home games.
Over is 4-1 in Carolina games this year.
Panthers opponents are 30-64 on third down.
Dalton is 84-84-2 as an NFL starter, mostly with Cincinnati.
Teams split their last eight meetings.
Falcons lost 9-7/25-15 in last two visits to Charlotte.
Under is 7-2 in last nine series games.
Bengals (-3.5) @ Giants
Bengals (1-4)
Cincy is 1-4, with losses by 6-1-5-3 points.
Last four games, Bengals scored 25-33-34-38 points.
Last two games, Bengals scored 13 TD’s on 29 drives.
Team total: over 4-1
Opponents’ team total: over 3-1-1
Bengals are 10-6 ATS in last 16 games as a road favorite.
QB Burrow is 35-28-1 as an NFL starter.
Cincinnati is 19-11-1 ATS in last 31 games coming off a loss
Last four games, Bengal defense has allowed 26-38-24-41 points.
Bengals are 9-2-2 ATS last 13 games vs NFC teams.
Giants (2-3)
Giants are 0-2 at home (28-6 Vikings, 20-15 Cowboys)
Giants didn’t score a TD on 19 drives in their two home games.
Big Blue blocked FG for a TD to clinch last week’s win in Seattle.
Team total: under 3-2
Opponents’ team total: under 3-2
Four of their five games stayed under the total.
Under Daboll, Giants are 9-5-1 ATS coming off a win
Under Daboll, Giants are 8-4-1 ATS as a home underdog.
QB Jones is 25-40-1 as an NFL starter.
Opponents are only 20-59 on third down.
Giants won three of last four series games (wins by 2-1-3 points).
Bengals lost 21-20/26-23 in last two meetings in New Jersey.
Under is 5-1 in last six series games.
Monday’s game
Bills (-2.5) @ Jets
Bills (3-2)
Bills scored 34-31-47 points in their wins; 10-20 in losses.
Last 2 games, Buffalo has converted 6 of 27 third down plays.
Bills scored 13 TD’s on first 26 drives, three TD’s on last 22 drives.
Team total: over 3-2
Opponents’ team total: under 3-2
Buffalo is 15-12 ATS in last 27 games as a road favorite.
Bills are 4-6 ATS in last ten games coming off a loss.
QB Allen is 71-37 as NFL starter.
Bills are 15-5-1 ATS in last 20 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Josh Allen completed only 9 of 30 passes LW; is he healthy?
Jets (2-3)
Jets fired their coach Tuesday; does it hurt their defense?
Jets scored 24-24 points in wins, 19-9-17 in losses.
Jets’ played in England Sunday, didn’t take their bye this week.
Team total: over 2-2-1
Opponents’ team total: under 3-2
Jets are 17-27 ATS last 44 games as an underdog.
Jets are 9-13 ATS in last 22 games as a home underdog.
Jets are 15-18 ATS last 33 games coming off a loss.
Jets are 6-10 ATS last 16 AFC East home games.
Rodgers is 161-88-1 as an NFL starter.
Buffalo won seven of last nine series games.
Bills lost 20-17/22-16 in last two meetings in New Jersey.
Under is 8-2 in last ten series games.
NFL
Weather Report
Thursday, October 10
Best NFL Week 6 betting trends
The trend: The 49ers have beaten the Seahawks by at least eight points in five straight games.
The trend: The Bears have held 11 straight opponents to 21 points or less.
The trend: Kyler Murray hasn't won consecutive starts since October of the 2021 season.
The trend: The Titans are 8-0-1 ATS in their last nine games following a bye.
The trend: Houston has gone Under the first-half total in 10 of 11 road games since the start of last season.
The trend: These teams have gone Under in five straight games against each other. TBvs.NO
The trend: The Browns have gone Under their team total in every game this season.
The trend: These teams have a combined 8-2 record to the Over. Bal vs. WAS
The trend: The Chargers have gone Under in all of their games this season.
The trend: Justin Fields has only thrown one interception in his last seven games.
The trend: The Cowboys are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a home underdog.
The trend: The Panthers are 6-15-1 ATS in their last 22 games.
The trend: The Bengals have crossed the 50-point mark in four straight games.
The trend: The Bills have gone Under the total in 15 of their last 19 road games.
Foot Long
Big Underdogs Start Quick
NFL underdogs of 6+ points are now 11-8 SU and 16-2-1 ATS (89%) through five weeks — covering the spread by 7.8 PPG.
This is the first time since 1960 dogs of 6+ are over .500 SU thru 5 weeks, with also the best ATS win pct.
Dogs of 6+ are 11-8 SU through five weeks. For comparison, dogs of 6+ were 4-16 SU through five weeks last year and were 27-109-1 SU (20%) between 2019-23 through the first five weeks of the season. Dogs of 6+ haven’t been above .500 SU through four weeks since 1983.
Dogs Are Home
Record in Week 6
We have ten games with home underdogs in Week 6 of the NFL.
If we close with ten, it would be tied for the most in a single week since 1972 – the only week in the Super Bowl era we had more than 10 home dogs. The last week with ten came back in Week 17 of 2020. We haven’t had a week with 10+ home dogs before Week 10 since Week 4 of 2004.
Rookie Life
Starting Early
Through five weeks, Rookie QBs are 10-5 SU and 12-3 ATS. It is the 2nd-most combined wins by rookie QBs in the first five weeks of a season in history, only trailing 1987. Since Commanders/Bengals on MNF, rookie QBs have won and covered 7 straight games.
Last year, rookie QBs started 3-8-1 ATS through four weeks and 5-9-1 ATS through five weeks of the season.
Daniels is the third rookie quarterback since 1950 to start and win four of his team’s first five games, joining Joe Ferguson from 1973 with Buffalo and Dak Prescott from 2016 with Dallas.
Ice Cold
Public Bettors Struggle
The betting public (51%+ of tickets) are 28-46-2 ATS this season, with a $100 bettor down $2,056 – the worst start for the betting public through four weeks in the last 20 years.
Public by week:
+ Week 5: 6-8 ATS
+ Week 4: 5-8-1 ATS
+ Week 3: 6-10 ATS
+ Week 2: 5-10-1 ATS
+ Week 1: 6-10 ATS
Looking overall at how the public fared ATS in the NFL last year, they went 139-115-9 ATS, with a $100 bettor up $1,063 — the best single regular season for the public in the Bet Labs database dating back to 2003.
Low, Low, Low
Totals Hit Bottom
How low is too low? A few very low totals on the board this week. NFL totals of 37 or less are 33-12-1 (73%) to the under since 2020.
Tight Lines
Small Spread Early Season
The average point spread for an NFL favorite through four weeks is sitting around -4.0 PPG this season. That is the lowest mark for any season through the first five weeks since 1960.
There has been only one double-digit favorite this week, the fewest through five weeks in the Super Bowl era.
Undefeated Rest
5-0 Teams On Bye
The Minnesota Vikings are the story of the NFL through five weeks. They are 5-0 SU/ATS full game. 5-0 SU/ATS in first half, 5-0 SU/ATS in the 1st quarter and their team totals are 5-0 to the over. The 2024 Vikings and 2007 Patriots are the lone teams to start a year 5-0 SU/ATS and 5-0 1H ATS in the last 20 years.
Not only is it a great start, but an unexpected one. Minnesota had a preseason win total of 6.5. The only teams since 1990 to start 5-0 SU with a win total below 7 are the 2024 Vikings, 2009 Broncos and 1999 Rams.
The Chiefs are also 5-0 SU. In the last 20 years, they are the 5th team to start 5-0 SU as reigning champions.
2024 Chiefs 5-0 SU
2019 Patriots 8-0 SU
2015 Patriots 10-0 SU
2011 Packers 13-0 SU
2007 Colts 7-0 SU
The Chiefs joined the 1990 49ers as the only teams in NFL history to start 5-0 after winning back-to-back Super Bowls.
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Since the home teams last won three straight ATS on TNF in September 2020, road teams have been on a roll, 33-35 SU & 39-27-2 ATS (59.1%) in the last 68.
System Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-3.5 at SEA)
There has been some interesting data regarding the first and second half of the season in terms of Thursday night games. In the first half of the season, or Weeks 1-8, home teams have gone 23-20 SU but 14-27-2 ATS (34.1%). Going back even further, since 2016, TNF home teams in weeks 9 & later are 37-25 SU and 36-24-2 ATS (60%). There seems to be a fundamental edge to playing at home with less rest late in the season.
System Match (FADE): SEATTLE (+3.5 vs. SF)
Home underdogs on TNF have really struggled of late, going 4-18 SU and 7-15 ATS (31.8%) in their last 22, scoring just 14.5 PPG. In terms of totals, 16 of the L20 (80%) TNF games featuring a home dog went Under.
System Matches: FADE SEATTLE (+3.5 vs. SF), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 49)
A long-running trend of Thursday night home-field advantage being crucial in divisional games has turned lately, with these hosts going 17-16 SU but 13-20 ATS (39.4%) since the start of the 2019 season. Prior to that, divisional hosts were on an amazing 17-2-1 ATS run.
System Match (FADE): SEATTLE (+3.5 vs. SF)
There has been a wild trend that has developed over the last 4+ seasons regarding TNF road teams coming off a home loss the prior Sunday, as they have rebounded incredibly with a 17-18 SU and 23-11-1 ATS (67.6%) record.
System Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-3.5 at SEA)
Unfortunately, home cooking has not solved the ills for Thursday home teams coming off a loss in their most recent game, as they have been a brutal bet over the last five seasons, going 24-30 SU and 19-34-1 ATS (35.8%).
System Match (FADE): SEATTLE (+3.5 vs SF)
More on totals, there have been 30 TNF games since 2012 with a total of 50 or greater, they went Under at a 22-8 rate (73.3%).
System Match: PLAY UNDER in SF-SEA (*if the total gets to 50 or more, currently at 49)
Good TNF Team Trends
Seattle 9-5 SU and 8-4-2 ATS in the last 14
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (+3.5 vs. SF)
Sunday, Oct 13
9:30am ET on NFL Network
Trevor Lawrence vs. Caleb Williams
➤A few facts and trends from the 46 total international games:
- The under has a small edge at 25-21
Wembley: 14-11 to the under
Twickenham: 2-1 to the under
Allianz: 1-0 to the under
Corinthians: 1-0 to the over
Deutsch Bank Park: 2-0 to the under
Azteca: 3-2 to the over
Tottenham: 5-4 to the over
Favorites have excelled in international games. They are 35-10-1 straight up and 31-15 against the spread. Favorites at Tottenham: 4-5 ATS. All other international stadiums: 27-10 ATS.
The public has struggled a bit overseas. Teams with 51%-plus of tickets in international games are just 22-23 ATS, including going 4-9 ATS in the last 13 international games since the pandemic.
Favorites of a FG or more overseas are 25-7-1 SU, 21-12 ATS.
Only 5 international games have seen teams open as dog and close at -1.5 or higher. Those teams are 5-0 SU/ATS – that would include the Bears this week if they close there.
NFL
Weather Report
Monday, October 14
