Tuesday 10/27/20 thread for handicapping service plays and expert predictions for NFL, NCAAF & World Series
Betting Recap - Week 7
Joe Williams
Overall Notes
The largest underdogs to win straight up
Cardinals (+3.5, ML +160) vs. Seahawks, 37-34 (OT)
49ers (+3, ML +140) at Patriots, 33-6
The largest favorites to cover
Chargers (-7.5) vs. Jaguars, 39-29
Chiefs (-7) at Broncos, 43-16
The Biggest Disappointment of the Week
The Pittsburgh Steelers-Tennessee Titans battle certainly lived up to the hype. It was an AFC battle of unbeatens, and at first it looked like it was going to be a blowout, Pittsburgh style. The Steelers fired out to a 14-0 lead, and they held a 24-7 advantage at the break. They tacked on a 30-yard Chris Boswell field goal early in the third quarter to make it 27-7, but that's when the Steelers bogged down on offense and were unable to produce anymore offense.
The Titans made a furious comeback. WR A.J. Brown struck 50 seconds after Boswell's field goal for a 73-yard touchdown, cutting the lead to 27-14. A field goal from Stephen Gostkowski with 2:55 left in the third from 51 yards out made it 27-17 after 45 minutes. Over (51) bettors looked to be in good shape heading into the fourth quarter, and Titans (+1, ML +105) side bettors were perking up as well. With 10:13 to go in regulation, Derrick Henry punched one in from 1-yard out to make it 27-24. However, much to the dismay of over bettors, there was no more scoring in the remainder of the game. Gostkowski misfired on a 45-yard field goal attempt with 19 seconds remaining, which would have inched the total over the line. In addition, moneyline bettors and side bettors for the Titans must've felt like they were losing twice. A trip to overtime could have potentially changed the day.
The Biggest Disappointment of the Week - Part II
The Detroit Lions-Atlanta Falcons game was a memorable one, and not many people would've expected that going in. It was 14-13 after three quarters, and while it was close, it wasn't terribly exciting. Then the fourth quarter took place.
If you're a Falcons (-1) side bettor, you're absolutely sick about this result. The Lions ended up winning 23-22 with a touchdown with zeroes on the clock, stunning Atlanta. However, that would be bad enough on a normal day under normal circumstances, but this situation should have never come to be.
With 1:04 remaining in regulation, the Falcons picked up a key first down, positioning themselves for a chip-shot, game-winning field goal, which would have made it 17-16. The Lions were out of timeouts, so they allowed Todd Gurley to score from 10 yards out. He remembered at the last second that he wasn't supposed to score, but couldn't stop his momentum and broke the plane. That made it 20-16, and they tacked on a two-point conversion to go ahead by six. However, if they would have just taken a knee, they could have run the clock down and left no time after the field goal. Matthew Stafford and company took advantage.
The Lions drove the field, tying it with no time left on a strike from Stafford to T.J. Hockenson from 11 yards out. All that was needed was a Matt Prater extra point, and he stuck it, giving Detroit a miraculous 23-22 victory.
Total Recall
The lowest totals on the board on the Sunday slate were the San Francisco 49ers-New England Patriots (44.5) game, followed by the Dallas Cowboys-Washington Football Team (45) contests.
The Patriots were never able to get untracked, as the 49ers fired out to a 23-3 lead at halftime, and they never looked back. Cam Newton was mistake-prone, and the New England offense could only produce two field goals. The 49ers picked up the 33-6 road victory, and 'over' bettors were a little disappointed with just three points in the fourth quarter.
In the Cowboys game, QB Andy Dalton was knocked out of the game due to a head/neck injury, so seventh-round draft pick QB Ben DiNucci was thrust into action. The Cowboys offense was dumbed down even more, and the second half resembled a preseason game for the Cowboys. Sadly, they're still only a half-game back of the first-place Philadelphia Eagles with a trip to Lincoln Financial Field on the slate for Week 8. Anyway, the Cowboys mustered just three points, and the Washington offense posted a total of 22 points, as the 'under' easily cashed.
The highest number on the board was Seattle Seahawks-Arizona Cardinals (56) battle. This NFC West showdown didn't disappoint. The teams combined for 71 points, and only the third quarter saw fewer than 17 points. QBs Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray put on a show for the national audience, and the total was the first over of the season for the Cardinals against five under results. Arizona entered the day as the only NFL team without an over.
In the two primetime games, the over and under split 1-1, with the Monday night game between the Chicago Bears and Los Angeles Rams still pending.
So far this season the under is 13-9 (59.1%) across 22 primetime games. In 2019, the 'under' went 31-17-1 (64.6%) during primetime games.
Looking Ahead to Week 8
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET)
The Falcons keep finding new ways to lose. They have blown fourth-quarter leads against the Cowboys, Bears and Lions, and could easily be 4-3 instead of 1-6. That's how close the margin of error is in the NFL. They get a rematch with the Panthers on Thursday. They fell 23-16 at home against Carolina, losing outright as 2.5-point favorites in a game which Julio Jones missed due to injury. The under has cashed in three of the past four outings for Atlanta, including that first meeting with the Panthers. Carolina enters the Week 7 game at New Orleans with a 4-0 under streak before hitting the over against the Saints. Carolina covered, too, and they're now 4-1 ATS in their past five overall.
New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)
The Chiefs opened as 21-point favorites against the Jets in the 'Le'Veon Bell Bowl'. Dating back to the 2003 NFL season, we've had just five teams favored by 21 or more points. Last season the Miami Dolphins went to Dallas as 22-point underdogs, and the Cowboys covered the number, 31-6. However, since the start of the 2003 campaign, favorites of 20 or more points are 1-3 ATS. New York heads into this one just 1-5 ATS in the past six on the road, 1-5 ATS in the past six as an underdog and 5-17-1 ATS in the past 23 on a grass surface. On the flip side, the Chiefs are 3-0-1 ATS in the pat four against losing teams, and they're 8-1-1 ATS in the past 10 at home. They're also 12-3-1 ATS in the past 16 as a favorite, too. The game has since moved down to 20.5, so early bettors are actually...gulp...trusting the Jets?
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)
The unbeaten Steelers put their unblemished record on the line against the Ravens in a battle for AFC North supremacy. Not only are the Steelers 6-0 SU, but they have covered four in a row, and five of six overall. Baltimore will be coming off a bye, so they'll be well rested and any injured players will have gotten over their early-season bumps and bruises. While the Ravens enter on a three-game winning streak, and they're 5-1 SU, Baltimore is just 1-3 ATS across the past four. The Ravens swept the Steelers last season, winning 26-23 in overtime in Pittsburgh in Week 5, while topping the Steelers 28-10 in the regular-season finale. Pittsburgh did win in Baltimore as recently as Nov. 4, 2018.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Giants (Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET)
The Buccaneers travel to meet the Giants in a Monday Night battle. It's QB Tom Brady against his Super Bowl nemesis, but these G-Men aren't the same ones he faced for all the marbles. And he is wearing new threads now, too. Still, you know that will be the storyline, as the TV people need something to put lipstick on this pig. Tampa rolled over Las Vegas on the road, winning 45-20 as 3.5-point favorites, the second consecutive blowout win. Just last week they polished off the Green Bay Packers by a 38-10 score. The Bucs offense has posted 31, 28, 38, 19, 38 and 45 in the past six outings, as Brady now looks comfortable, and the Patriots are probably wishing him back right about now.
NFL odds Week 8: Opening lines, line movement
Patrick Everson
Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are coming off a bye as they host the division rival Steelers in Week 8. The SuperBook at Westgate opened Baltimore -6 and moved to -5.5 late Sunday evening.
NFL Week 7 is almost behind us, with NFL Week 8 odds on the betting board and already seeing movement. The Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens do battle in the AFC North, and the San Francisco 49ers face the Seattle Seahawks in an NFC West clash.
The SuperBook at Westgate's John Murray provided insights on NFL Week 8 opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting.
NFL Week 8 odds
These are the current NFL Week 8 odds, as of October 26.
Teams on bye: Washington Football Team, Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Arizona Cardinals
Falcons at Panthers odds
Opening line
Panthers -3, Over/Under 49.5
Why the line moved
The bottom two in the NFC South get an early jump on Week 8 in the Thursday night game. Carolina opened -3 at The SuperBook, and there was no movement Sunday night.
Colts at Lions odds
Opening line
Colts +2.5, Over/Under 50.5
Why the line moved
Detroit scored a touchdown on the final play Sunday to steal a 23-22 victory at Atlanta, the Lions' third win in their last four games. Meanwhile, Indianapolis is coming off its bye week. The Colts opened as 2.5-point road chalk, and there was no line movement Sunday night.
Vikings at Packers odds
Opening line
Packers -7.5, Over/Under 55
Why the line moved
Minnesota is coming off a much-needed bye, with a 1-5 record after providing Atlanta its only win of the season in Week 6. Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay rebounded from a Tampa Bay beatdown by topping Houston 35-20 on the road Sunday. The SuperBook opened the Packers -7.5, and that line ticked to -7 Sunday night.
Patriots at Bills odds
Opening line
Bills -3.5, Over/Under 44
Why the line moved
New England has a combined 18 points over its last two games, both home losses, including Sunday's 33-6 blasting at the hands of San Francisco. So although Buffalo was no great shakes in an 18-10 road win over the hapless New York Jets, The SuperBook opened the Bills -3.5 and quickly moved to -4 Sunday night.
"There were a number of voices in the room that wanted to open it higher," Murray said Sunday night. "The Patriots are a mess right now, coming off back-to-back home losses against the Broncos and 49ers. The Bills aren’t great by any means, but they are the class of the division and could take a stranglehold on the AFC East with a win here."
Titans at Bengals odds
Opening line
Bengals +3.5, Over/Under 54.5
Why the line moved
Tennessee made a nice comeback that fell just short against Pittsburgh on Sunday, the Titans' first loss of the year. Cincinnati scored late to take the lead at home against Cleveland, but gave up a TD in the waning seconds to lose 37-34. The Titans opened -3.5 at The SuperBook and ticked to -4 Sunday night.
Raiders at Browns odds
Opening line
Browns -3, Over/Under 54.5
Why the line moved
Cleveland eked out a final-seconds 37-34 victory at Cincinnati on Sunday, but lost star wideout Odell Beckham Jr. to a knee injury, possibly for the season. Still, The SuperBook opened the Browns -3 against Las Vegas, which got outscored 21-3 in the fourth quarter of a 45-20 loss to visiting Tampa Bay.
"This feels like the kind of game where the Raiders surprise everyone and go on the road and scratch out a win," Murray said Sunday night. "Their loss today was closer than the final score indicated, and the Browns (likely) lost Odell Beckham Jr. for the year. Tough spot for Cleveland, off that great win in Cincinnati."
Jets at Chiefs odds
Opening line
-21.5, Over/Under 49
Why the line moved
The Jets are the last winless team in the NFL this season, at 0-7 SU (1-6 ATS), though they finally covered Sunday in an 18-10 loss to Buffalo as 10-point home underdogs. Defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City is 6-1 SU (5-2 ATS) and ripped host Denver 43-16 in the snow Sunday. So this game has a monster spread, the largest of this NFL season.
"We opened Chiefs -21.5 and were bet down to -20.5," Murray said. "I know everyone will want to talk about this game, but it’s really a pretty simple one. How much will the Chiefs care? Sure, they could win by more than this spread, but will they even bother to? Will they play Patrick Mahomes in the second half if they are up by 21 at halftime?
"I don’t know why they would. A big number like this will scare a lot of people off. They’ll look for somewhere else to invest their dollars."
Rams at Dolphins odds
Opening line
Dolphins +3.5, Over/Under 49
Why the line moved
Los Angeles still has Week 7 work to do in the Monday nighter against visiting Chicago, while Miami is coming off a bye. The Rams opened 3.5-point road favorites, with no line movement Sunday night at The SuperBook.
Saints at Bears odds
Opening line
Bears +2, Over/Under 47
Why the line moved
New Orleans hung on to edge visiting Carolina 27-24 Sunday, while Chicago is in the Week 7 Monday nighter at the Los Angeles Rams.
"We moved from Saints -2 to -2.5 quickly," Murray said. "This line may move off Monday night’s Bears-Rams game. The Saints continue to underwhelm. They’re just barely getting by week to week, even when they run into mediocre opposition."
49ers at Seahawks odds
Opening line
Seahawks -3.5, Over/Under 54
Why the line moved
The SuperBook opened this NFC West clash at Seahawks -3.5, then the game came off the board once Seattle kicked off its Week 7 Sunday night game at Arizona. The game will go back up Monday morning.
"The 49ers crushed the Rams and Patriots on back-to-back weekends, and their power rating is starting to creep up toward where it was preseason," Murray said. "They could be a force later in the year, if they can stay relatively healthy."
Cowboys at Eagles odds
Opening line
OFF, Over/Under OFF
Why the line moved
As if Dallas didn't have enough injury issues, most notably losing quarterback Dak Prescott (ankle) for the season, now backup Andy Dalton's status is uncertain. Dalton suffered a concussion in the third quarter of an embarrassing 25-3 loss at Washington.
Murray said The SuperBook kept this matchup off the board Sunday night, waiting for clarity on who the Cowboys will have under center.
Buccaneers at Giants odds
Opening line
Giants +10, Over/Under 47
Why the line moved
Tampa Bay is atop the NFC South at 5-2 (4-3 ATS), while New York is at the bottom of the NFC East at 1-6 (4-3 ATS). So The SuperBook opened the Bucs 10-point favorites in the Week 8 Monday night game, with no early line movement.
Chargers at Broncos odds
Opening line
Pick, Over/Under 45
Why the line moved
Denver got throttled at home 43-16 by Kansas City on Sunday, while Los Angeles claimed a 39-29 home win over Jacksonville. The SuperBook figured it was a coin toss and opened at pick, and the Chargers moved to -1.5 by late Sunday evening.
Steelers at Ravens odds
Opening line
Ravens -6, Over/Under 48
Why the line moved
Pittsburgh is 6-0 SU and a stout 5-1 ATS, as well, while Baltimore (5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS) has only a loss to Kansas City. The Ravens are coming off a bye and playing at home in this 1 p.m. ET Sunday clash.
"We opened the Ravens up at -6 in what really should be the Sunday Night Football game next week," Murray said, noting that the line dipped a notch to Ravens -5.5. "This is a great matchup, and we get it again on Thanksgiving night. It’s also a great handle game. The Ravens will get a ton of support on the point spread and in moneyline parlays, but I also expect there to be a lot of takers on the Steelers. They are undefeated and have a huge following."
NFL betting tips for Week 8: Bet Now or Bet Later
Jason Logan
The New England Patriots offense has scored a grand total of just 28 points overt their last three games and face another struggling offense in Buffalo in Week 8.
It’s hard to believe that Sunday’s NFL Week 8 games will be played on November 1.
This is the time of the year in which teams either go all in on the playoff push or start wondering if its worth it. And with the difficulties of the COVID-19-influenced season, I expect losing teams to start giving less of a crap even sooner into the schedule than normal.
The best NFL betting strategy through it all is getting the better of the numbers. These are our NFL betting tips for the Week 8 odds to bet now and bet later.
Las Vegas Raiders at Cleveland Browns (-3): Bet Now
The Browns follow their thrilling win over the rival Bengals on Sunday as 3-point home chalk hosting the Raiders in Week 8. Books opened Cleveland as a field-goal favorite Sunday night and already some shops are dealing the half-point hook on the host.
The early money is buying into the Browns, who didn’t look that great in Sunday’s win against Cincinnati. Cleveland quarterback Baker Mayfield had a bad start to the game but got right to the tune of five touchdown passes. That effort, which included a last-second touchdown, was enough to give the Browns their fifth win of the season.
Las Vegas got shelled by Tampa Bay at home in Week 7, allowing Tom Brady and the Buccos to post 45 points – 21 of those in the fourth quarter. The Silver and Black are one of the worst defenses in the NFL, allowing almost 33 points per game. That’s a touch worse than Cleveland's stop unit, which is serving up 31.6 points per outing.
If you’re banking on the Browns, get them now at the clean field goal and avoid that nasty half-point hook in a game that could go either way, considering the defenses involved.
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (-3): Bet Later
Most books opened the Falcons as heavily-juiced 3-point underdogs Sunday evening, with the points coming with a -120 price tag for Thursday Night Football. The lookahead line for this NFC South showdown was at Panthers -2.5 last week and that looks like where it’s headed considering the early movement for the vig.
Carolina dropped its second straight game in a 27-24 loss at New Orleans, but covered as a touchdown road dog. The Panthers have been competitive in just about every game this season, with an average margin of -0.9 through seven games. This offense, which has overperformed, could have superstar RB Christian McCaffrey back for Thursday too.
The Falcons “Falcon’d” themselves again versus Detroit in Week 7. Atlanta had the game in hand, but an ill-timed touchdown gave the ball back to the Lions in the waning seconds of the fourth quarter and… well, you know how these end for the Falcons.
I’m a little surprised Carolina -3 is discounted, but wait it out and see if -2.5 shows up between now and when McCaffrey’s status is updated.
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (Under 45): Bet Now
Yeesh, when the Bills aren’t scoring 30 points a game, they’re one bad football team. The high-flying Buffalo offense has been grounded the past three games, with the team combining for just 51 points over that span – compared to 123 points totaled in the first four games of the schedule.
The Patriots are also going through an offensive crisis, with a combined outpouring of 28 points in their last three contests – including scoring just six in Sunday’s home ass-waxing at the hands of the 49ers. It’s like New England’s offense hasn’t come out of quarantine since the team’s COVID-19 outbreak in early October.
The total for this AFC East grudge match hit the board at 46 points Sunday night and was a favorite play of sharp bettors right away, dropping to 45 in about an hour. These divisional foes are a collective 0-5-1 Over/Under in their last six contests and have gone Under in six of their last nine meetings overall. If you’re on that Under bandwagon, take the U45 now before it sinks even lower.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (Under 49): Bet Later
Given the firepower on both sides and the way the 2020 season is bursting with points like a freshly whacked pinata, seeing this total below 50 is a bit surprising. That may be the early narrative as well, with some books tacking on a half-point move to 49.5.
Pittsburgh is unblemished and coming off a high-scoring thriller against Tennessee in which it scored 27 points but only three of those came in the second half. The Steelers offense stalled like a 1997 Toyota Tercel on a cold Pennsylvania morning and can thank the defense for keeping the Titans at bay down the stretch (and also thank Stephen Gostkowski for missing a game-tying 45-yarder in the final seconds).
The Ravens offense is chewing up the gains on the ground – big surprise – but Lamar Jackson has struggled to throw the football – big surprise (no really) – with a passer rating of 99.2 (compared to 113.3 last year). Baltimore is averaging almost 30 points per game but has played plenty of pedestrian defenses along the way.
These heated rivals have gone Over in their last two meetings, but those totals were almost laughable at 44 and 38 points (HA!). Before those results, the Steelers and Ravens played below the total in six of their previous eight encounters. If you like another Under, hold your horses and wait to see how high this Week 8 O/U goes.
Tech Trends - Week 8
Bruce Marshall
Week 8 of the NFL season kicks off on Thursday, Oct. 29 and we've identified betting trends and angles for all 14 matchups. We also have "Tech Edge" leans on the side or total for each game too.
Thursday, Oct. 29
ATLANTA at CAROLINA
Falcons romped in both meetings LY, but Panthers have covered 4 of last 5 after Saints result.
Carolina 1-5-1 vs. line last seven in Charlotte (1-2 for Rhule).
Falcs actually 6-1 vs. line last seven away.
Tech Edge: Slight to Falcons, based on team trends
Sunday, Nov. 1
INDIANAPOLIS at DETROIT
Colts 1-2 vs. line away in 2020, 2-5 last seven vs. spread on road.
Lions “over” 8-1 last nine at Ford Field.
Tech Edge: “Over” and slight to Lions, based on “totals” and team trends.
MINNESOTA at GREEN BAY
Pack has covered last 3 and 4 of last 5 in series, including 43-34 win opening week.
GB also 8-3 vs. line last 11 at Lambeau.
Vikes “over” 4-2 in 2020, and 12-5 “over” last 17 reg.-season games.
Tech Edge: Packers and “over,” based on team, series, and “totals” trends.
NEW ENGLAND at BUFFALO
Belichick has only lost SU to Bills three times in last 33 meetings, one of those in last reg-season game, another with Jacoby Brissett at QB.
Pats 5-2 vs. line last seven reg season meetings.
As a dog, Belichick 14-4 since 2010.
Bills only 4-8 vs. line last 12 on board.
“Under” 7-4 last 11 meetings.
Tech Edge: Patriots and slight to “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.
TENNESSEE at CINCINNATI
Tannehill 14-5 SU since becoming starting QB for Titans.
Tenn no covers last three away in 2020 but had covered five straight on road prior.
Tannehill also “over” 14-4-1 in his starts.
Cincy has only lost once vs. spread in 2010 (5-1-1)
Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.
LAS VEGAS at CLEVELAND
Raiders “over” 5-0-1 in 2020.
Browns “over” 5-2 in 2020 and 8-3 “over” last 11 since late 2019.
Tech Edge: “Over,” based on”totals” trends.
N.Y. JETS at KANSAS CITY
Jets 0-7 and 1-6 vs. line in 2020 (first cover of season last week vs. Bills), and 3-9 vs. spread last 11 since late 2019.
Chiefs 3-1 last four as DD chalk and 14-2 last 16 overall on line.
Jets also “under” 10-3 last 13 since late 2019.
Tech Edge: Chiefs and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.
L.A. RAMS at MIAMI
Rams 7-1 vs. spread in early Eastern Time or London kickoffs under McVay since 2017.
LA 11-5 vs. spread last 16 away from home since late 2018.
Dolphins “over” 5-2 last seven as host, Rams “over” 4-2 last six away.
Tech Edge: Slight to “over,” based on “totals” trends.
PITTSBURGH at BALTIMORE
After Tenn win, Tomlin 11-2 as underdog since 2018.
Note Ravens just 6-6 vs. spread last 12 as host.
Ravens on 8-4 “under” run since late 2019, Steel “under” 8-1 last nine away.
Tech Edge: “Under” and Steelers, based on “totals” and team trends.
NEW ORLEANS at CHICAGO
Saints covered last seven on road in 2019 and now 8-1 last 9 vs. points as visitor.
Prior to Monday at rams, Bears 4-1 SU and vs. line as dog this season.
Saints also “over” 7-2 last nine away and “over” 8-1 last nine since late 2019, though Bears “under” 13-8 since 2019 prior to Rams game.
Tech Edge: “Over” and slight to Saints, based on “totals” and team trends.
SAN FRANCISCO at SEATTLE
“Overs” last four meetings.
Niners 9-2 vs. spread as visitor since LY (3-0 in 2020), also covers in last seven as a dog.
Hawks 2-1 vs. line at home in 2020 but close shaves vs. Pats and Cowboys, and just 5-9 vs. number last 14 at CenturyLink.
Tech Edge: 49ers and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.
L.A. CHARGERS at DENVER
Broncos swept Bolts last season for first time since 2015.
Bolts on 5-1 spread uptick in 2020, Denver 12-6 spread uptick since mid-2019.
Tech Edge: Slight to Broncos, based on team and recent series trends.
DALLAS at PHILADELPHIA
Cowboys 0-7 vs. line TY, 2-10 last 12 on board since late 2019.
Dallas also no covers last five away.
Birds however just 2-7 vs. line last nine at Linc.
Cowboys “over” 12-7 last 18 since early 2019, Birds “over” 7-4 last 11 reg season games.
Tech Edge: “Over” and slight to Eagles, based on “totals” and team trends.
Monday, Nov. 2
TAMPA BAY at N.Y. GIANTS
G-Men 3-0-1 vs. line last four, 4-1-1 vs. spread last six in 2020.
Bucs 2-2 vs. line away TY, Arians teams “over” 31-15 since mid 2016 with Cards (16-7 “over” with Bucs; 4-3 in 2020). .
Tech Edge: “Over” and slight to Giants, based on “totals” and team trends.
101ATLANTA -102 CAROLINA
ATLANTA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after allowing 300 or more passing yards in their last game in the last 2 seasons.
251INDIANAPOLIS -252 DETROIT
DETROIT is 16-40 ATS (-28 Units) after having won 3 out of their last 4 games since 1992.
253MINNESOTA -254 GREEN BAY
MINNESOTA is 48-26 ATS (19.4 Units) vs. excellent ball control teams, 32 or more possession minutes/game since 1992.
255NEW ENGLAND -256 BUFFALO
BUFFALO is 24-7 ATS (16.3 Units) after 3 or more consecutive losses against the spread since 1992.
257TENNESSEE -258 CINCINNATI
TENNESSEE is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) in road games after a home game where both teams scored 24 or more points since 1992.
259LAS VEGAS -260 CLEVELAND
LAS VEGAS are 4-18 ATS (-15.8 Units) in road games versus terrible defensive teams - allowing >=375 yards/game since 1992.
261NY JETS -262 KANSAS CITY
KANSAS CITY is 16-5 ATS (10.5 Units) against conference opponents in the last 2 seasons.
263LA RAMS -264 MIAMI
LA RAMS are 15-5 ATS (9.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points in the last 3 seasons.
267NEW ORLEANS -268 CHICAGO
NEW ORLEANS are 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) in road games with <=6 days rest in the last 2 seasons.
269SAN FRANCISCO -270 SEATTLE
SAN FRANCISCO is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) when the line is +3 to -3 in the last 2 seasons.
271DALLAS -272 PHILADELPHIA
DALLAS are 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in the 1rst half of the season in the current season.
273TAMPA BAY -274 NY GIANTS
NY GIANTS are 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home games as a dog in the last 2 seasons.
NFL
Long Sheet
Week 8
Thursday, October 29
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ATLANTA (1 - 6) at CAROLINA (3 - 4) - 10/29/2020, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.
CAROLINA is 86-59 ATS (+21.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
CAROLINA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 4-1 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 4-1 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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Sunday, November 1
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INDIANAPOLIS (4 - 2) at DETROIT (3 - 3) - 11/1/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) as a road favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
DETROIT is 150-188 ATS (-56.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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MINNESOTA (1 - 5) at GREEN BAY (5 - 1) - 11/1/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 118-85 ATS (+24.5 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 58-38 ATS (+16.2 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 98-72 ATS (+18.8 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 202-147 ATS (+40.3 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
MINNESOTA is 54-31 ATS (+19.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 4-1 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 3-1 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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NEW ENGLAND (2 - 4) at BUFFALO (5 - 2) - 11/1/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 44-25 ATS (+16.5 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 272-212 ATS (+38.8 Units) in all games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 272-212 ATS (+38.8 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 88-51 ATS (+31.9 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 130-99 ATS (+21.1 Units) in road games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 130-99 ATS (+21.1 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 209-155 ATS (+38.5 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 200-155 ATS (+29.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 132-93 ATS (+29.7 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 129-94 ATS (+25.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 73-50 ATS (+18.0 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 2-1 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 4-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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TENNESSEE (5 - 1) at CINCINNATI (1 - 5 - 1) - 11/1/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 35-56 ATS (-26.6 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 127-162 ATS (-51.2 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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LAS VEGAS (3 - 3) at CLEVELAND (5 - 2) - 11/1/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LAS VEGAS is 56-86 ATS (-38.6 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
LAS VEGAS is 14-28 ATS (-16.8 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
LAS VEGAS is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) in road games against AFC North division opponents since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
LAS VEGAS is 1-0 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
LAS VEGAS is 1-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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NY JETS (0 - 7) at KANSAS CITY (6 - 1) - 11/1/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY JETS are 13-25 ATS (-14.5 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
NY JETS are 13-25 ATS (-14.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NY JETS are 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NY JETS are 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) off a win against a division rival over the last 3 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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LA RAMS (5 - 2) at MIAMI (3 - 3) - 11/1/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS are 78-108 ATS (-40.8 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
MIAMI is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 2 seasons.
LA RAMS are 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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NEW ORLEANS (4 - 2) at CHICAGO (5 - 2) - 11/1/2020, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 57-84 ATS (-35.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 1-0 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 1-0 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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SAN FRANCISCO (4 - 3) at SEATTLE (5 - 1) - 11/1/2020, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 47-72 ATS (-32.2 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 2-2 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 2-2 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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DALLAS (2 - 5) at PHILADELPHIA (2 - 4 - 1) - 11/1/2020, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in all games this season.
DALLAS is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
DALLAS is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) against conference opponents this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 3-1 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 3-1 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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LA CHARGERS (2 - 4) at DENVER (2 - 4) - 11/1/2020, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CHARGERS are 131-96 ATS (+25.4 Units) in road games since 1992.
LA CHARGERS are 131-96 ATS (+25.4 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
LA CHARGERS are 104-75 ATS (+21.5 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
DENVER is 30-48 ATS (-22.8 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 3-1 against the spread versus LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 3-1 straight up against LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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PITTSBURGH (6 - 0) at BALTIMORE (5 - 1) - 11/1/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 84-56 ATS (+22.4 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 2-1 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 3-1 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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Monday, November 2
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TAMPA BAY (5 - 2) at NY GIANTS (1 - 6) - 11/2/2020, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 66-43 ATS (+18.7 Units) in November games since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 40-66 ATS (-32.6 Units) in November games since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 1-0 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 2-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
NFL
Week 8
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Trend Report
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Thursday, October 29
Atlanta @ Carolina
Atlanta
Atlanta is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Atlanta's last 7 games when playing on the road against Carolina
Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Carolina's last 7 games when playing at home against Atlanta
Carolina is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Sunday, November 1
Pittsburgh @ Baltimore
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
Baltimore
Baltimore is 17-2 SU in its last 19 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore's last 6 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
Minnesota @ Green Bay
Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Minnesota's last 12 games when playing Green Bay
Green Bay
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Green Bay is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
NY Jets @ Kansas City
NY Jets
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Jets's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Jets's last 7 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Kansas City
Kansas City is 15-1 SU in its last 16 games
Kansas City is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games at home
Indianapolis @ Detroit
Indianapolis
Indianapolis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Indianapolis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Detroit's last 9 games at home
Detroit is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games
Tennessee @ Cincinnati
Tennessee
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Tennessee's last 8 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
Tennessee is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Cincinnati's last 8 games when playing at home against Tennessee
Cincinnati is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Las Vegas @ Cleveland
Las Vegas
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Las Vegas's last 5 games
Las Vegas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Cleveland
Cleveland is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
Cleveland is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
New England @ Buffalo
New England
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo
Buffalo
Buffalo is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 7 games
LA Rams @ Miami
LA Rams
LA Rams is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games on the road
LA Rams is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Miami
Miami is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against LA Rams
Miami is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing LA Rams
LA Chargers @ Denver
LA Chargers
The total has gone OVER in 6 of LA Chargers's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 6 games when playing on the road against Denver
Denver
Denver is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against LA Chargers
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 6 games when playing at home against LA Chargers
San Francisco @ Seattle
San Francisco
San Francisco is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
San Francisco is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Seattle
Seattle is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against San Francisco
Seattle is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games when playing San Francisco
New Orleans @ Chicago
New Orleans
New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games
Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Chicago's last 8 games at home
Chicago is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Dallas @ Philadelphia
Dallas
Dallas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
Dallas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Philadelphia's last 11 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing at home against Dallas
Monday, November 2
Tampa Bay @ NY Giants
Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing NY Giants
Tampa Bay is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
NY Giants
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Giants's last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
NY Giants is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Tampa Bay
NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 8
Falcons (1-6) @ Carolina (3-4)
— Falcons are 0-5 ATS when they score less than 39 points.
— Atlanta covered two of its three road games.
— Falcons lost 30-16 at Green Bay in their only outdoor game so far.
— Atlanta is 6-4 ATS in its last ten games as a road underdog.
— Three of their four games stayed under the total.
— Carolina lost its last two games, 23-16/27-24.
— Panthers lost two of its three home games this year.
— Carolina is 10-14 ATS in its last 24 games as a home favorite.
— Team leading at halftime won all seven Carolina games.
— Over is 4-3 in Panther games this season.
— Carolina (+2.5) upset the Falcons 23-16 in Atlanta, three weeks ago, their first win in last six series games.
— Falcons won 24-10/29-3 in their last two visits to Charlotte.
This report will update....
Falcons vs. Panthers Week 8 Odds, Preview
Matt Blunt
We are already at Week 8 of this very unusual 2020 NFL season, and with the expanded playoffs in place this year, talk about playoff seeding and who's got a chance to get in etc is getting ready to dominate the airwaves.
It's also a point in the season where many of the teams in the bottom half of the standings right now are likely a loss or two away from punting on the campaign, so keep that in mind as well in the coming weeks.
The Atlanta Falcons are one of those organizations that are basically already in that punt mode for 2020 and they really have nobody but themselves to blame. They've given away wins vs Dallas, Chicago, and Detroit already this year, so the 1-6 SU record that they enter this Thursday Night Football (TNF) game with really should be much closer to .500.
I'm not entirely sure if that's an indictment on just how many self-inflicted mistakes this organization has made since losing the Super Bowl a few years ago, but I do know that the majority in the market would believe it to be so.
So the question is, can that be exploited in this divisional rematch game (Carolina won 23-16 in Atlanta a few weeks back) or is this just going to be another case of the Falcons finding new and creative ways to get in the way of their own success?
Betting Resources
Week 8 Matchup: NFC South
Venue: Bank of America Stadium
Location: Charlotte, North Carolina
Date: Thursday, Oct. 29, 2020
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: NFL Network
The Panthers seek the season sweep of the Falcons after winning in Atlanta earlier this month. (AP)
Falcons-Panthers Betting Odds
Spread: Carolina -3
Money-Line: Carolina -140, Atlanta +130
Total: 50.5
2020 Betting Stats
Atlanta
Overall: 1-6 SU, 2-5 ATS, 4-3 O/U
Road: 1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS, 2-1 O/U
Offense PPG: 26.3 (Rank 13)
Defense PPG: 29.6 (Rank 26)
Offense YPG: 401.0 (Rank 6)
Defense YPG: 425.9 (Rank 31)
Carolina
Overall: 3-4 SU, 4-3 ATS, 3-4 O/U
Home: 1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS, 1-2 O/U
Offense PPG: 23.1 (Rank 25)
Defense PPG: 24.0 (Rank 13)
Offense YPG: 369.1 (Rank 15)
Defense YPG: 351.1 (Rank 13)
Handicapping the Total
Carolina's 23-16 win over the Falcons a few weeks back was a dead nuts to the 'under', but it was also a game that was dominated by drives from both teams stalling.
Six total FG's were kicked in that game, and four of those six came from inside 40 yards as it was the Panthers who accounted for three of those four sub-40 yard tries.
Oddly enough, that's actually a positive for this Falcons defense, and for 'under' thoughts, but I'm not sure they'll be able to duplicate that performance and get off the field on 3rd down as much as they did in that game.
Carolina still converted 50% of their 3rd downs in that game (6-for-12), and on the road this year, Atlanta has allowed opponents to convert 47% of their 3rd downs. That number puts them in the bottom third of the league overall and puts them right in line with what happened in the first game.
However, at the same time, Carolina's 2nd last in the league in overall opponent 3rd down conversion percentage at 56.32%, as they are a team that has only really gotten worse in that regard.
The better than projected start that this new coaching regime (Matt Rhule) had in Carolina has cooled off a bit now, and even with all of the blunders Atlanta has committed this year (and previous years) in blowing games, they are still a team loaded with talent on offense if quarterback Matt Ryan can consistently protect the ball and get it to all those weapons he does have.
Put it all together, and even with it being a short week and those games tending to lean towards lower scoring affairs, the only way I can look at this total is to go 'over' the number. Carolina might have running back Christian McCaffrey back this week and I don't need to go on to explain how big of a weapon he is for this team.
Finally, in each of the last two seasons, these two teams have always managed to cash the opposite result on the total in their 2nd meeting of the year – ie if the first game went 'over' the second went 'under' – and after some initial action bumped this total down, it's started to climb back up and over the 50-point threshold.
Hard not to agree with that latter move in this instance.
Head-to-Head History
Oct. 11, 2020 - Carolina 23 at Atlanta 16, Panthers +2.5, Under 53.5
Dec. 8, 2019 - Atlanta 40 vs. Carolina 20, Falcons -3.5, Over 48
Nov. 17, 2019 - Atlanta 29 at Carolina 3, Falcons +3.5, Under 49
Dec. 23, 2018 - Atlanta 24 at Carolina 10, Falcons -3, Under 46
Handicapping the Side
The Falcons may not have a lot going for them in terms of how they are viewed by the outside world, but they are 2-1 ATS this season as an underdog, and since the start of last season, traditional TNF games (not counting Thanksgiving) between division rivals has seen the underdog go on to cash a spread wager in eight of their 10 opportunities.
That includes a 2-0 ATS mark this season with the New York Giants covering at Philadelphia last Thursday and Cincinnati earning the late cover at Cleveland in Week 2.
But understandably so, trusting the Falcons to get the job done is going to be next to impossible for many in the betting market with them getting less than a FG here.
There really is very little defense for some of the gaffs this team has had in blowing games this year, but there are plenty of other teams in this league that are just as average overall as the Falcons are, but they get a pass because they tend to win all the close games they are in. The Seattle Seahawks (up until losing to Arizona last week) come to mind.
The Falcons are also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Panthers, and that includes games that were played in the years that Carolina and Atlanta ultimately made a Super Bowl appearance.
It's far from the best number to be confident in backing this 2020 Atlanta team, but as tough as it may be to submit a wager on the Falcons, they are the only way I can look at the side. That being said, +2.5 is not something I'm excited at all about taking.
Therefore, I do believe that the best way to go overall in this game is to actually go the teaser route with both the side and total. Remember, you can't blow as many games as the Falcons have of late without first having a lead, and with a team like Atlanta that you know always finds a way to play tight games, taking all the points you can with them is a plus.
So teasing the Falcons up to +8.5 with the total down to 44.5 on a 6-point teaser is where my money has landed this week.
Key Injuries
Atlanta
DE Takkarist McKinley: Groin - Questionable
OT Kaleb McGary: Elbow - Questionable
C Alex Mack: Knee - Questionable
WR Julio Jones: Hip - Questionable
WR Russell Gage: Knee - Questionable
Carolina
RB Christian McCaffrey: Ankle - Doubtful
DE Zach Kerr: Toe - Questionable
DE Efe Obada: Back - Questionable
DE Marquis Haynes: Knee - Questionable
CB Eli Apple: Hamstring - Questionable
OT Russell Okung: Calf - Questionable
G John Miller: Ankle - Questionable
Gridiron Angles - Week 8
Vince Akins
NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
Matchup: Minnesota at Green Bay
-- The Vikings are 12-0 ATS (9.00 ppg) since Nov 01, 2009 coming off a loss where they had a player with over 110 receiving yards.
NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
Matchup: Pittsburgh at Baltimore
-- The Ravens are 0-11-2 ATS (-5.92 ppg) since Dec 24, 2011 as a favorite coming off a game as a favorite where they allowed at least 24 points.
TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:
Matchup: Pittsburgh at Baltimore
-- The Steelers are 8-0 ATS (7.19 ppg) since Oct 14, 2018 coming off a game where James Conner ran for at least 75 yards.
NFL O/U OVER TREND:
Matchup: Tennessee at Cincinnati
-- The Titans are 13-0-1 OU (12.00 ppg) since Dec 30, 2012 and as a favorite coming off a game where they had less than 28 minutes time of possession and allowed at least 14 points.
NFL O/U UNDER TREND:
Matchup: New Orleans at Chicago
-- The Bears are 0-14-1 OU (-8.53 ppg) since Oct 04, 2015 at home coming off a game as a dog where they failed to cover.
NFL CHOICE TREND:
Matchup: L.A. Chargers at Denver
-- The Chargers are 0-11 OU (-8.64 ppg) since Dec 24, 2015 when they are coming off a win and a playing a team below .500 on the season.