NFL Betting News, Match-Ups and Trends For Week 9

NFL odds Week 9: Opening lines, sharp money & line movement
Patrick Everson

Drew Brees and the Saints barely escaped Chicago with a 26-23 overtime victory against the Bears. Next up for New Orleans is a trip to Tampa Bay, where The SuperBook has the Buccaneers -4.5.

NFL Week 8 is just about in the rearview mirror, with NFL Week 9 odds on the betting board and already getting some action. The Green Bay Packers and San Francisco 49ers collide under the Thursday night lights, and the Sunday nighter pits the New Orleans Saints against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The SuperBook at Westgate's John Murray provided insights on NFL Week 9 opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting.

NFL Week 9 odds

These are the current NFL Week 9 odds, as of November 1.

Teams on bye: Los Angeles Rams, Philadelphia Eagles, Cleveland Browns, Cincinnati Bengals

Packers at 49ers odds
Opening line
49ers +2.5, Over/Under 50.5

Why the line moved
"We opened Packers -2.5 and are still there," Murray said Sunday night. "The public will be all over the Packers here. They’ll fall in love with the cheap road favorite, especially after seeing the 49ers get rolled today." Indeed, San Francisco went to Seattle as a 1-point underdog and trailed 30-7 in the fourth quarter, though the Niners rallied to make it respectable in a 37-27 loss.

Seahawks at Bills odds
Opening line
Bills +3, Over/Under 51

Why the line moved
The Seahawks, coming off a nice win over the 49ers, opened -3 (even) and stuck there Sunday night for this cross-country trek to Buffalo next weekend.

"This will be one of our most one-sided games on Sunday," Murray said. "Buffalo is 6-2, but really hasn’t been that impressive. Seattle rolled again today. This will be a huge-need game for us on Sunday."

Broncos at Falcons odds
Opening line
Falcons -4.5, Over/Under 47.5

Why the line moved
The Broncos trailed the Chargers 24-3 midway through the third quarter Sunday, but rallied for a 31-30 victory, capped by a touchdown on the game's last play. Atlanta notched a 25-17 win at Carolina in the Week 8 Thursday nighter, so the Falcons will have a little more rest this week. There was no movement on the line or the total Sunday night at The SuperBook.

Bears at Titans odds
Opening line
Titans -6.5, Over/Under 46.5

Why the line moved
"We opened Titans -6.5 and took some money on the Bears, and moved down to 6," Murray said. "All of a sudden, the Titans are on a losing skid, and we know the Bears are almost always a popular betting option with the public. This may be that rare game where we need the favorite."

Lions at Vikings odds
Opening line
Vikings -3.5, Over/Under 53.5

Why the line moved
Minnesota snagged a nice 28-22 upset win at Green Bay on Sunday, while Detroit got rolled at home 41-21 by Indianapolis. The SuperBook opened the Vikings -3.5 and the total 53.5, and there was no movement Sunday night.

Ravens at Colts odds
Opening line
Colts +2.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
"We opened the Ravens -2.5 and quickly moved to -3," Murray said. "Interesting game. We’ve really only seen Baltimore beat bad teams. And the Ravens just lost Ronnie Stanley for the year."

Stanley, Baltimore's All-Pro left tackle, suffered a broken left ankle in Sunday's 28-24 home loss to Pittsburgh.

"The Colts are quietly 5-2 and probably should be 6-1," Murray said. "Look for the public to back the Ravens, but they’ll be more hesitant to jump in on this one than they are with the Packers and Seahawks."

Panthers at Chiefs odds
Opening line
Chiefs -11.5, Over/Under 51

Why the line moved
Kansas City went off as a 19.5-point home favorite against the New York Jets on Sunday, the largest spread so far this season, and coasted to a 35-9 win and cover. Carolina lost at home to Atlanta 25-17 as a short fave in the Thursday nighter. So it's no surprise that Murray & Co. opened the Chiefs -11.5. There was no movement Sunday night on the line or the total.

Texans at Jaguars odds
Opening line
Jaguars +7, Over/Under 51.5

Why the line moved

Both these teams are coming off a bye, and both needed it: Houston is 1-6 SU and ATS, and Jacksonville is 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS. The first move on this game was toward the home 'dog, with the Jaguars moving to +6.5 Sunday night. The total was stable at 51.5.

Giants at Washington odds
Opening line
Washington -3, Over/Under 43

Why the line moved
New York is 1-6 SU, Washington is 2-5 SU—and they're both in the hunt for a division title in the awful NFC East. The SuperBook moved Washington to -3.5 Sunday night, while the total stuck at 43.

Raiders at Chargers odds
Opening line
Chargers -3, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Las Vegas ground out a 16-6 win at Cleveland on Sunday, while Los Angeles blew a 24-3 lead at Denver and lost 31-30. So bettors quickly cut this spread in half Sunday night, with the Chargers dropping to -1.5 at The SuperBook.

"We did take some Raiders money, and that line was put up before yet another epic Chargers collapse," Murray said.

Steelers at Cowboys odds
Opening line
Off, Over/Under Off

Why the line moved
Pittsburgh rallied from a 17-7 halftime deficit to beat Baltimore 28-24 on the road Sunday, while Dallas and third-string QB Ben DiNucci lost at Philadelphia 23-9 in the Sunday nighter. Murray said The SuperBook held off posting the Steelers-Cowboys line, waiting for clarity on whether Andy Dalton (concussion) returns at QB or if the rookie DiNucci is again the starter.

Regardless, the Steelers will likely be laying double digits. Murray said the line will be in the range of Pittsburgh -10 if Dalton starts for Dallas and Pittsburgh -13 if DiNucci starts.

Dolphins at Cardinals odds
Opening line
Cardinals -5.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Arizona had a bye this week, and perhaps that was fortuitous, as there were reports Sunday that two players tested positive for COVID-19 this weekend. That news broke after The SuperBook posted the opening number of Cardinals -5.5, and the book then took the game off the board while awaiting clarity on the situation. Miami, behind rookie QB Tua Tagovailoa, is coming off a solid 28-17 home win over the Los Angeles Rams.

Saints at Bucs odds
Opening line
Buccaneers -4.5, Over/Under 54.5

Why the line moved
New Orleans blew a 20-3 lead but got out of Chicago with a 26-23 overtime victory Sunday, while Tampa Bay still has Week 8 work to do in the Monday nighter at the New York Giants.

"We opened Bucs -4.5 and are still there," Murray said Sunday night. "The Saints seem to barely escape week after week. Drew Brees can’t throw the ball more than 10 yards down the field. I think the public will bet the Bucs pretty hard here, especially if they roll the Giants on Monday night."

The total was also stable Sunday night at 54.5.

Patriots at Jets odds
Opening line
Jets +7.5, Over/Under 41

Why the line moved
Post-Tom Brady, New England is a shell of itself, with a 2-5 SU record (3-4 ATS) after Sunday's 24-21 loss at Buffalo. But New York is the worst team in the league, at 0-8 SU and 1-7 ATS. It's not much of a marquee Monday night matchup, but The SuperBook opened the Patriots -7.5 and the total 41, with no movement Sunday night.

NFL betting tips for Week 9: Bet Now or Bet Later
Jason Logan

The Las Vegas Raiders picked up an ugly 16-6 win at Cleveland in Week 8 but it was a serious character victory for Vegas, playing in an early 1 p.m. ET start in wind, rain and snow. Vegas is seeing early action versus the Chargers in Week 9.

By Week 9 of the NFL schedule, books and bettors are supposed to have a solid grasp on the contenders and pretenders. However, in this wonderful and whacky 2020 season, NFL betting has proven even more challenging with teams trying on both of those hats over the past eight weeks.

The best NFL betting strategy in all this madness is to get the best of the number for your wager. With the NFL Week 9 odds fresh out of the oven, here are our NFL betting tips for the spreads and totals to bet now and the ones to bet later.

Las Vegas Raiders (+1.5) at Los Angeles Chargers: Bet Now

This AFC West spread opened as big as Bolts -2.5 and is quickly moving towards pick’em after another classic Chargers’ collapse against the Broncos Sunday. Los Angeles is now 0-8 SU and 1-6-1 ATS against divisional foes since 2019.

The Raiders are coming off an ugly 16-6 win on the road in Cleveland, but that victory came in a 1 p.m. ET start (normally kryptonite for this franchise) and in less-than Las Vegas conditions (wind, rain, snow). The Silver and Black have played their best football away from the fancy new Sin City Stadium, going 3-1 SU and ATS on the road this year.

If you believe in the Silver and Black or just can’t bear another bad beat from the Bolts, snatch up Las Vegas and as many points as you can now before this line jumps the fence.

Detroit Lions (+3) at Minnesota Vikings: Bet Later

These NFC North foes were headed in different directions until Week 8, when the Vikings stunned the Packers at Lambeau and the Lions laid a big stinky egg hosting the Colts. This spread opened at the customary field goal for a divisional rivalry, but Minnesota -3 is now heavily juiced and a half-point hook is on the way.

Detroit laid down for a lot of points versus the Colts, however, the game can really be boiled down to a Matt Stafford strip-sack in the fourth quarter, which broke the Lions' back and erased any chance of a comeback. It snapped a two-game winning streak by Detroit, which had also won and covered in three of its last four.

The Vikings picked up just their second victory of the season in Week 8 and are now ripe for a major letdown spot after winning at Lambeau Field for the first time since 2017. Minnesota is the poster child for inconsistency, so if you like the Lions you may want to wait it out and get that oh-so valuable half-point at +3.5.

Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts (Under 45): Bet Now

Something is rotten in Raventown. Baltimore’s once-mighty offense is bringing up the rear in passing yards and reigning MVP Lamar Jackson has looked plain pedestrian over the past four games, struggling with accuracy and boasting a TD-to-INT count of 7-to-4 after tossing 36 touchdowns to only six interceptions in 2019.

On top of Jackson’s woes, the Ravens’ rushing attack could be missing a few gears with RB Mark Ingram a big question mark for Week 9 (ankle) and standout left tackle Ronnie Stanley lost for the season (broken ankle). Baltimore visits one of the NFL’s stingiest defenses in the Colts, who regained some clout on that side of the ball with a 41-21 win over Detroit on Sunday—forcing three fumbles (recovering one) and scoring a pick-6 to put the Lions away.

The total opened as high as 46.5 points Sunday night and quickly started ticking down with one-sided action on the Under. This total is at 45 as of late Sunday night but some books have taxed the Under to -115. If you like a low-scoring finish in Indy, bet this Under at the key number now.

Seattle Seahawks at Buffalo Bills (Over 51): Bet Later

Had this game been scheduled four weeks ago, this total may have flirted with 60 points. And while the Seahawks have kept their scoring output redlining through seven games (34.1 points per game—No. 1 in NFL) the Bills have not, suffering a major drop-off in scoring the past four games. Buffalo has averaged only 18.75 points since Week 5.

If there ever was a team to get right against, it’s Seattle. This defense sits dead last in total yards allowed and has given up 29 passing plays of 20 or more yards, and seven of 40-plus. That’s just what Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs and this receiving corps need to get their long-bomb groove back.

The Over/Under for this non-conference clash opened as high as 54.5 at some books but a market correction swiftly trimmed 1.5 off the top and then money on the Under booked it down to 51. If you expect the return of the Bills’ big plays and Russell Wilson to be Russell Wilson, wait to see how low this number goes before banging the Over gong.

Hot & Not Report - Week 9
Matt Blunt

NFL Week 9 Betting Angles

Fading NFL teams before a Thursday Night Football game is the gift that just keeps on giving, as both the Packers and 49ers fell rather easily this past week to the Vikings and Seahawks respectively.

Fading these teams pre-TNF on the outright money line is now 12-2 SU (85.7%) thanks to those wins by Minnesota and Seattle, and next up this week it calls for outright plays against the Colts and Titans, who are slated for a TNF game in Week 10.

And one more thing before I forget to comment on the Seahawks, as they benefited from being on the right side of that angle thanks to their defense actually deciding to play some defense for the first three quarters of that win.

Quarterback Russell Wilson continues to be the favorite for the MVP award as he and wide receiver DK Metcalf continue to carry this team, Seattle fans might want to tell Metcalf he might not want to campaign so hard for Wilson to win the league's Most Valuable Player award this season.

The NFL has not seen a league MVP go on to win the Super Bowl in their MVP season this century (20 years), as the last to do it was Kurt Warner with the Rams in 1999. Individual awards are always nice, but the goal every year is to hoist that Lombardi Trophy and working against that type of history is quite the uphill climb.

(Also, if you do believe Wilson will win the MVP this year, Seattle futures tickets may not be the best idea right now).

This week the hot and cold streaks shift to non-conference affairs as there are six of them on tap in Week 9 and there are some interesting runs going on in these AFC/NFC games. Heck, we've even got the Seattle Seahawks involved in one of them as well.

Let's get to it:

Who's Hot

Since the start of Week 4, road teams in non-conference games are 13-4 SU and 13-3-1 ATS

This is something I sat on last week as there were only two non-conference games on the slate, and road teams ended up going 1-1 SU and ATS with the Colts winning in Detroit, and the Rams losing in Miami.

But Week 7 saw all three road teams in non-conference games get the SU and ATS money (Green Bay over Houston, Tampa over Las Vegas, and SF over New England) as it just continued on down the path it had started weeks prior.

It is interesting to note that the LA Chargers have had a unique role in this non-conference run, as they covered the spread in both of their opportunities – vs Tampa Bay and New Orleans – and had they not done Chargers things in those games, the SU record could actually be much better for road teams here.

Who Do You Follow?

Broncos
Seahawks
Panthers
Bears
Dolphins
Steelers

Week 9 brings us the following non-conference games: Denver (+4) at Atlanta, Seattle (-2.5) at Buffalo, Carolina (+12) at Kansas City, Chicago (+6) at Tennessee, Miami (+4.5) at Arizona, and Pittsburgh (no line) at Dallas.

Among those contests are some interesting betting opportunities, as once again in these Hot/Not pieces we've found yet another reason to fade the Dallas Cowboys. I got up on Monday morning actually a little baffled at all the negative reaction to that Cowboys/Eagles game on SNF for how bad it was.

It wasn't the fact that the game turned out to be awful that was baffling, it was the fact that everyone complaining about it being a garbage dump of a game couldn't see it coming beforehand. I tried to warn you all about it in my SNF preview, but to each his own.

Who knows how high that line for the Steelers – the league's last remaining unbeaten – gets against the Cowboys this week, but if bettors needed yet another reason to fade what's going on in Jerry World, this would be it.

Having Carolina and Atlanta involved in two non-conference games off their TNF game is interesting as well given they do have the extra rest angle in their favor. Following this run would suggest backing the Panthers and going against the Falcons, but in both cases it's always better to do a lot more digging before you settle in on any play.

In terms of favorites/underdogs, there isn't as big of a discrepancy as the road/home splits for these recent non-conference games, as underdogs are 9-7-1 ATS against the closing line in that span.

Just another thing to keep in mind if there is some hesitance to back the Seahawks or Steelers simply because they are the favorites.

Who's Not

Expecting lower point totals in these non-conference games; Since the start of Week 4, non-conference games have averaged 55.29 points per game

Outlining things this way helps differentiate from the overall O/U record which sits at 10-7 O/U for the 17 non-conference games during this time.

Some of those 'unders' did stay low by the hook or a single point though, which makes the fact that the average point total in these games much more actionable.

Furthermore, only two of those 17 games finished with less than 45 total points scored, as they were the Colts/Bears game (30 total points) and Cardinals/Jets game (40 total points) in recent weeks.

The offenses the Jets and Bears possess right now are so bad that taking any 'over' with them is tough to begin with.

Chicago is involved again in this scenario this week, but they do face a Titans team that gives up 61.86% 3rd down conversion rate this year (a league worst this year and one of the worst numbers we've seen in decades), so who knows, maybe Chicago's offense ends up looking competent this week.

But with 15 of the 17 recent AFC/NFC games seeing at least 45 combined points, and 11 of the 17 games finishing with at least 54 points, it's this average of 55.29 points per game that could be critical this week.

Not one total in the five non-conference games with a line posted have a total currently listed higher than 53.5 (Seattle/Buffalo), and prior to the Miami/Arizona game coming off the board here, three of the five games had posted totals still in the 40's.

Now pairing up these two runs (road teams + high scoring games) to look at going 'over' the team totals of these road squads is something I didn't look at specifically, but it goes to reason that going that route would make a lot of sense.

So if you are looking for 'overs' in Week 9, in any form, it would make some sense to start with these non-conference games first to see what else you can find.

Play the Over Where?

Denver-Atlanta (50)
Seattle-Buffalo (54.5)
Carolina-Kansas City (52.5)
Chicago-Tennessee (46.5)
Miami-Arizona (48)
Pittsburgh-Dallas (NA)

301GREEN BAY -302 SAN FRANCISCO
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) against teams who force 0.75 or less turnovers/game on the season since 1992.

451SEATTLE -452 BUFFALO
SEATTLE is 8-0 ATS (8 Units) in road games versus poor rushing defenses - allowing >=4.5 rushing yards/carry in the last 3 seasons.

453DENVER -454 ATLANTA
DENVER is 10-2 ATS (7.8 Units) vs. awful passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse over the last 2 seasons.

453DENVER -454 ATLANTA
Vic Fangio is 10-2 ATS (7.8 Units) vs. awful passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse (Coach of DENVER)

455CHICAGO -456 TENNESSEE
CHICAGO is 12-2 ATS (9.8 Units) off a home cover where the team lost as an underdog since 1992.

457DETROIT -458 MINNESOTA
DETROIT is 9-27 ATS (-20.7 Units) vs. very bad defensive teams who give up 27 or more points/game since 1992.

459BALTIMORE -460 INDIANAPOLIS
INDIANAPOLIS are 13-2 ATS (10.8 Units) in home games vs. excellent teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season since 1992.

461CAROLINA -462 KANSAS CITY
KANSAS CITY is 8-0 ATS (8 Units) versus good offensive teams - averaging >=350 yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

463HOUSTON -464 JACKSONVILLE
JACKSONVILLE is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game. over the last 2 seasons.

465NY GIANTS -466 WASHINGTON
NY GIANTS are 11-1 ATS (9.9 Units) in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse in the last 3 seasons.

467LAS VEGAS -468 LA CHARGERS
LA CHARGERS are 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game in the last 2 seasons.

469PITTSBURGH -470 DALLAS
DALLAS are 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread in the current season.

471MIAMI -472 ARIZONA
MIAMI is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) in weeks 5 - 9 in the last 2 seasons.

473NEW ORLEANS -474 TAMPA BAY
NEW ORLEANS are 6-0 ATS (6 Units) in road games after having won 4 out of their last 5 games in the last 2 seasons.

475NEW ENGLAND -476 NY JETS
NEW ENGLAND is 22-7 ATS (14.3 Units) in road games after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games since 1992.

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 9

Thursday, November 5

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GREEN BAY (5 - 2) at SAN FRANCISCO (4 - 4) - 11/5/2020, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 202-148 ATS (+39.2 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-0 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-1 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, November 8

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SEATTLE (6 - 1) at BUFFALO (6 - 2) - 11/8/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 48-72 ATS (-31.2 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
BUFFALO is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) against NFC West division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DENVER (3 - 4) at ATLANTA (2 - 6) - 11/8/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 34-56 ATS (-27.6 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CHICAGO (5 - 3) at TENNESSEE (5 - 2) - 11/8/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 9-23 ATS (-16.3 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CHICAGO is 57-84 ATS (-35.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 55-32 ATS (+19.8 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 35-57 ATS (-27.7 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 18-35 ATS (-20.5 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DETROIT (3 - 4) at MINNESOTA (2 - 5) - 11/8/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 27-45 ATS (-22.5 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
DETROIT is 150-189 ATS (-57.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
DETROIT is 46-68 ATS (-28.8 Units) in November games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 3-1 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 4-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BALTIMORE (5 - 2) at INDIANAPOLIS (5 - 2) - 11/8/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 54-35 ATS (+15.5 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CAROLINA (3 - 5) at KANSAS CITY (7 - 1) - 11/8/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 35-18 ATS (+15.2 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1992.
KANSAS CITY is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
CAROLINA is 125-95 ATS (+20.5 Units) as an underdog since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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HOUSTON (1 - 6) at JACKSONVILLE (1 - 6) - 11/8/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 4-1 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 5-0 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
5 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY GIANTS (1 - 6) at WASHINGTON (2 - 5) - 11/8/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 40-66 ATS (-32.6 Units) in November games since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 37-21 ATS (+13.9 Units) in road games in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 33-55 ATS (-27.5 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 63-99 ATS (-45.9 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 15-29 ATS (-16.9 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 95-127 ATS (-44.7 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 95-127 ATS (-44.7 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 95-127 ATS (-44.7 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 27-51 ATS (-29.1 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 3-2 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 4-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LAS VEGAS (4 - 3) at LA CHARGERS (2 - 5) - 11/8/2020, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LAS VEGAS is 57-86 ATS (-37.6 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
LAS VEGAS is 14-28 ATS (-16.8 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
LAS VEGAS is 43-85 ATS (-50.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
LA CHARGERS are 53-30 ATS (+20.0 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA CHARGERS is 2-2 against the spread versus LAS VEGAS over the last 3 seasons
LA CHARGERS is 2-2 straight up against LAS VEGAS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PITTSBURGH (7 - 0) at DALLAS (2 - 6) - 11/8/2020, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MIAMI (4 - 3) at ARIZONA (5 - 2) - 11/8/2020, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NEW ORLEANS (5 - 2) at TAMPA BAY (5 - 2) - 11/8/2020, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 66-43 ATS (+18.7 Units) in November games since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 65-44 ATS (+16.6 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 4-1 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 4-1 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, November 9

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NEW ENGLAND (2 - 5) at NY JETS (0 - 8) - 11/9/2020, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 273-212 ATS (+39.8 Units) in all games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 273-212 ATS (+39.8 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 131-99 ATS (+22.1 Units) in road games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 131-99 ATS (+22.1 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 97-68 ATS (+22.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 210-155 ATS (+39.5 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 105-78 ATS (+19.2 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 106-75 ATS (+23.5 Units) off a division game since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 133-93 ATS (+30.7 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 74-50 ATS (+19.0 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
NY JETS are 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in all games this season.
NY JETS are 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
NY JETS are 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 3-1 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 4-0 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

NFL

Week 9

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Trend Report
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Thursday, November 5

Green Bay @ San Francisco
Green Bay
Green Bay is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games
Green Bay is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
San Francisco
San Francisco is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Green Bay
San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Green Bay

Sunday, November 8

Carolina @ Kansas City
Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing Kansas City
Carolina is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Kansas City
Kansas City is 16-1 SU in its last 17 games
Kansas City is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games at home

Detroit @ Minnesota
Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Detroit's last 13 games when playing Minnesota
Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit
Minnesota is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Detroit

Chicago @ Tennessee
Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago's last 6 games when playing Tennessee
Chicago is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Tennessee
Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tennessee's last 6 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tennessee's last 6 games

Seattle @ Buffalo
Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing Buffalo
Seattle is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing Seattle
Buffalo is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games

Denver @ Atlanta
Denver
Denver is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Denver is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Atlanta's last 10 games when playing Denver

Baltimore @ Indianapolis
Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing Baltimore
Indianapolis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Baltimore

Houston @ Jacksonville
Houston
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
Jacksonville
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 5 games when playing Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Jacksonville's last 16 games at home

NY Giants @ Washington
NY Giants
NY Giants is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
NY Giants is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Washington
Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington's last 8 games when playing NY Giants
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games at home

Las Vegas @ LA Chargers
Las Vegas
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Las Vegas's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Las Vegas's last 7 games when playing LA Chargers
LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Chargers's last 7 games when playing Las Vegas
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Chargers's last 7 games when playing at home against Las Vegas

Miami @ Arizona
Miami
Miami is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games when playing Arizona
Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games when playing Miami
Arizona is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games

Pittsburgh @ Dallas
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh

New Orleans @ Tampa Bay
New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing New Orleans

Monday, November 9

New England @ NY Jets
New England
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing NY Jets
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of New England's last 8 games when playing NY Jets
NY Jets
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of NY Jets's last 8 games when playing New England
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Jets's last 6 games when playing at home against New England

Dunkel Index - NFL

Packers vs. 49ers Week 9 Odds, Preview
Matt Blunt

Week 9 starts with a NFC Championship rematch game between the Packers and the 49ers, and after getting spanked by San Francisco twice last year, including that NFC title game, the Packers have probably had their eyes on this game for some time now.

Positive memories might not be immediately there for the Packers when they see the Niners sharing the field for them, but there are quite a few things that have broken in Green Bay's favor this week.

Nobody likes to see anyone get hurt, but San Francisco losing QB Jimmy Garoppolo and TE George Kittle has to be viewed as good news for Packers fans, and now with the 49ers having virus issues and shutting down their facility on Wednesday, practice and prep time 24 hours before the game on the San Fran side of things takes a real hit.

Now, uncertainty about when they'll play the game could weigh on the Green Bay side of things too, but after an awful showing on Sunday against Minnesota – especially in trying to stop the run – can the Packers bounce back and take advantage of all these little edges that are seemingly adding up in their favor?

Or will a depleted 49ers team on offense lean even heavier on their rushing attack and find just as much success as the Vikings did running all over Green Bay?

Betting Resources

Week 9 Matchup: NFC vs. NFC
Venue: Levi's Stadium
Location: Santa Clara, California
Date: Thursday, Nov. 5, 2020
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: FOX/NFL Network

Aaron Rodgers and the Packers look to avenge a pair of losses to the 49ers from last season. (AP)

Packers-49ers Betting Odds

Spread: Green Bay -5
Money-Line: Green Bay -240, San Francisco +200
Total: 50

2020 Betting Stats

Green Bay

Overall: 5-2 SU, 5-2 ATS, 4-4 O/U
Road: 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS, 2-2 O/U
Offense PPG: 31.3 (Rank 3)
Defense PPG: 26.7 (Rank 20)
Offense YPG: 394.6 (Rank 9)
Defense YPG: 346.6 (Rank 11)

San Francisco

Overall: 4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS, 4-4 O/U
Home: 1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS, 1-3 O/U
Offense PPG: 26.0 (Rank 15)
Defense PPG: 21.6 (Rank 10)
Offense YPG: 378.6 (Rank 12)
Defense YPG: 314.6 (Rank 6)

Handicapping the Total

Even before the COVID news dropped in San Francisco on Wednesday, the Niners injury news was still known, and I'm not sure how either side of this total could have been confidently bet.

The 'under' would be the side to look at if you believe the Niners would employ a gameplan that's heavily run-based to keep Rodgers and company off the field, while exploiting that huge weakness in Green Bay's defense right now.

A constant running clock is always a friend to 'under' bettors, and TNF games tend to skew themselves to the low side of the total to begin with.

But to just assume that the Packers run defense will get gashed again as they did vs Minnesota is flawed thinking in it's own right. Think of it from the Packers point of view in that a self scouting session would quickly reveal how poor they've been against the run this year, and knowing the injury situation San Fran has, expecting to face plenty of runs is a pretty reasonable expectation for Green Bay.

That defense could even come up with a gameplan to force QB Nick Mullens to beat them with his arm, and how successful either scenario is for Green Bay is still questionable.

Not to mention, Rodgers could just go off and have a 4 TD game or something like that in the possessions he does get, instantly ruining any 'under' play.

For those looking at the 'over' here, you've got to worry about similar things, as it's just as flawed to strongly believe the Packers defense will figure out how to slow down the opposing running game even when they know it's coming, and if SF is successful at winning the time of possession and bleeding the clock out, even late magic from Aaron Rdogers might not be enough to save an 'over' ticket.

And at the same time, San Fran's defense understands that they are going to have to be the ones to carry the workload here in the coming weeks with the offensive injury situation their team is experiencing.

It's that 49ers defense that DOES HAVE plenty of positive memories from the two meetings a year ago after setting up shop in the Packers backfield on both occasions, and should it be them that has a great game on TNF, this game probably ends up topping out somewhere in the mid-40's.

So it was an easy pass on the total before the 49ers virus issues, and an even easier one now.

Head-to-Head History

Jan. 19, 2020 - San Francisco 37 vs. Green Bay 20, 49ers -8, Over 46.5
Nov. 24, 2019 - San Francisco 37 vs. Green Bay 8, 49ers -3, Under 48
Oct. 15, 2018 - Green Bay 33 vs. San Francisco 30, 49ers +9.5, Over 46.5

Handicapping the Side

The side was the angle I had already been eyeing before Wednesday's news, and it was going to be the Packers or nothing. Now, even with it going to be a highly popular play on a very public team, it's still the Packers or nothing on the spread for me.

Part of that has to do with Green Bay's ability to bounce back of a loss – especially one where they looked as lousy as they did vs Minnesota – as they are on a 6-0 ATS run when coming off an outright loss dating back to late in the 2018-19 season. That scenario was already a strong “play on” spot for the Packers and it's getting hard to ignore.

Then you've got the whole revenge angle from the NFC Championship loss, as well as the even uglier loss in the regular season to this Niners team a year ago. That can't be overlooked either, and in hindsight, the idea that Green Bay was so flat and out of sync against Minnesota last week, could be somewhat attributed to looking ahead to this game.

Remember, they didn't know at the time that Garoppolo or Kittle wouldn't be playing, and getting one over on the team that ended their season last year is a professional pride thing that's got to be considered with all professional athletes.

And then there is the COVID situation now with the Niners, who may or not see more key players affected. That's not the only negative though, as now pre-game walkthroughs and practice time 24 hours before the game have now been squashed, and that's pretty important for a team that's working in replacements at key positions that would prefer to get all the practice snaps in that they can.

Add it all up and this is one situation where siding with the likely consensus on the Packers is really the only way I believe you can confidently put your money on in this game.

Who knows, the fact that Green Bay was such a huge public play last week and burned everyone may have some of those same bettors a little hesitant to join the chalk fest with the Packers here, especially after how bad they looked against Minnesota.

It's still Green Bay so it probably won't dissuade a large number of bettors, but laying the points with the visitors here makes too much sense on multiple fronts.

Key Injuries

Green Bay

OT David Bakhtiari: Chest - Questionable
S Raven Greene: Oblique - Questionable
RB Aaron Jones: Calf - Questionable
CB Kevin King: Quadriceps - Out
S Will Redmond: Shoulder - Out
S Vernon Scott: Shoulder - Out
OT Rick Wagner: Knee - Questionable

San Francisco

WR Deebo Samuel: Quarantine/COVID - Out
OT Trent Williams: Quarantine/COVID - Out
WR Brandon Aiyuk: Quarantine/COVID - Out
RB Tevin Coleman: Knee - Out
LB Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles: Hamstring - Out
QB Jimmy Garoppolo: Ankle - Out
WR Richie James: Ankle - Questionable
TE George Kittle: Foot - Out
WR Deebo Samuel: Hamstring - Out
S Jaquiski Tartt: Groin - Questionable

2020 Thursday Night Football (TNF) Betting Results

Straight Up (SU), Against the Spread (ATS)

Home-Away: 4-3 SU, 2-5 ATS
Favorites-Underdogs: 3-4 SU, 1-6 ATS
Over-Under: 3-4

Vegas Money Moves - Week 9
Micah Roberts

Public starts Week 9 with a "W"

The sportsbooks got off to a horrible start in Week 9 of the NFL season with the Green Bay Packers capturing a 34-17 road win at the injury-plagued San Francisco 49ers, a game that was no sweat for Packer backers who laid up to -7.5.

“We got beaten up good last night on the Packers,” said BetMGM Vice President of trading Jason Scott. “Our customers couldn’t find the 49ers button.”

What kind of effect did the 49ers last-second TD have on the total that dropped from 51.5 down to 48?

“It was the cherry on top to completely ruin my night,” Scott said.

Onto Sunday's Action

Now the bookmakers look to get some of the Thursday losses back by balancing out Sunday’s 12 games where there’s an undefeated team playing a team that is 0-8 against the spread, the Football Team is favored, sharp money is finally turning on the Bears, and an old school AFC West rivalry with Las Vegas invading Los Angeles.

Top vs. Bottom

First up is the 7-0 Pittsburgh Steelers (6-1 ATS) visiting the 2-6 Dallas Cowboys, who have failed to cover a spread this season.

The public is jumping all over the Steelers at all books in Nevada and they don’t seem to mind laying -14 which is why Station Casinos sportsbook director Jason McCormick tested the waters to see if any Cowboys money was to be had at +14.5. The hook didn’t attract anyone over the counter or the phones, so maybe the proper number is +15 or +16 to help balance the tilted one-way betting.

You can’t blame the public for betting against something that has cashed every week.

Betting against the Cowboys pays out better than the ATM, and now the Cowboys have their fourth and fifth string quarterbacks scheduled to play with head coach Mike McCarthey keeping who will start, either Cooper Rush or Garrett Gilbert, tight under his sweat jacket. Sure, the Steelers will really be thrown off defensively by practicing for Gilbert when Rush starts.

Cooper Rush, from Central Michigan, should get the start just because he knows offensive coordinator Kellen Moore’s offense better since being on the team the last two seasons. The Steelers average score this season is 30-20.

Headed East -- Again

Another popular public team, and the top public team at Station Casinos which is the capital of public bettors in Nevada, is the 6-1 Seattle Seahawks laying -3 (Even) at the 6-2 Buffalo Bills.

Despite owning the worst defense in the NFL, 460 yards-per-game, QB Russell Wilson can’t be stopped these days and the offense is averaging a league-best 34.3 points per game. The public hates the Bills this week because they’re on an 0-4 ATS run.

Plus, Seattle has won and covered its two games in the Eastern Time Zone this season with wins at Atlanta (38-25) and MIami (31-23) in Week 1 and 4 respectively.

The public also loves their 7-1 Chiefs who have covered six of eight games, the last one covering -19.5 against the Jets. Surely they can cover -12.5 at home against the 3-5 Panthers, right? Sharp bettors disagree and have been taking the points all week from +12 down to +10.5. Star running-back Christian McCaffrey is expected to return to action this week for the Panthers and carry his normal load after practicing the last two weeks.

Public vs. Sharps

The public and the sharps are both on the same sides of the Bears-Titans game and have pushed the number from Tennessee being a six-point home favorite to -6.5.

The 5-3 Bears (5-3 ATS) have been a popular sharp money bet in recent weeks, but they’ve jumped ship and are laying the points with the 5-2 Titans, who find new ways not to cover weekly going just 2-5 ATS.

Both teams come off two straight losses.

Two 5-2 teams match-up as Baltimore (3-4 ATS) plays at Indianapolis (4-3 ATS) and the public and sharp money are divided on this one as well.

The public has the Ravens as the fourth-most bet team in parlays this week while sharp money took +2.5 at +2 on the home dog at a few books. However, the Ravens are Circa Sports biggest risk of the week thus far. The SuperBook has the Ravens -1.5 with a total set at 48. The Colts rolled to a 41-21 win at Detroit while the Ravens come off a 28-24 home loss to the Steelers.

South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews says they’ve taken sharp action on the 3-4 Broncos (+4) at 2-6 Atlanta, but he didn’t move the number. The total has stayed at 50 all week as well. Both of the Falcons (3-5 ATS) wins this season have come in the last three weeks and both were on the road.

The Broncos (5-2 ATS) will be playing their fourth road game in the Eastern Time Zone and have covered the previous three, and won the last two outright.

Practices in Denver have been limited this week due to a COVID-19 outbreak which included VP John Elway getting infected.

The 2-5 Washington Football Team (4-3 ATS) opened as 3.5-point home favorite against the 1-7 New York Giants (5-3 ATS) and sharp money pushed it past the most key number of ‘3’ down to -2.5.

QB Daniel Jones has never lost to the Washington’s going 3-0, including their only 2020 win in Week 6 against them. The 20-19 win was ugly and magnified more by Washington head coach Ron Rivera going for a 2-point conversion in the final seconds instead of the kick to tie. Washington moved the ball well that day and deserved to win.

BetMGM's Scott says though action has been light so far, their biggest risk has been on the 4-3 Las Vegas Raiders at +1.5 and +1 at the 2-5 Los Angeles Chargers with a total that has surprisingly dropped from 54 down to 51.5, although six of the past seven meetings have stayed under between the pair.

The Chargers have covered five of seven games, but come off a heartbreaking loss at Denver. The Raiders (4-3 ATS) come off a gritty 16-6 win at Cleveland.

Las Vegas vs. Los Angeles, wow, in the NFL. I still get a smirk every time I see it in lights or hear announcers say "Las Vegas Raiders." I hope NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell does too, the guy who just a few years ago wouldn't let Las Vegas buy ads for the Super Bowl.

Up north at the Atlantis Reno, book director Marc Nelson has taken the same public action as down south in Las Vegas, but his respected money was a bit different getting plays on the Dolphins +4.5 at Arizona, and Jaguars +7 at home against Texans.

Circa Sports director Matt Metcalf says their most handled game of the week already is the Sunday night game with the 5-2 New Orleans Saints (2-5 ATS) looking to sweep the 6-2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-4 ATS) in a huge NFC South battle from Raymond James Stadium.

Metcalf says action has been steady on both sides with a slight lean towards taking the +4.5 with the saints who beat the Bucs, 34-23, in Week 1 with Saints being four-point home favorites.

It’s unusual for the Sunday night game to have the most action before the early games start on Sunday.

It’s especially rare for a Friday afternoon to have it already be the top played game.

Week 9 - Public vs. Sharp Leans

Sharp

Saints
Giants
Panthers
Colts
Jets
Dolphins
Jaguars
Titans
Broncos

Public

Seahawks
Chiefs
Steelers
Ravens
Titans

Patriots vs. Jets Week 9 Odds, Preview
Matt Blunt

It's not the NFC East involved on Monday Night Football this week, but it might as well be with the winless New York Jets hosting Week 9's final game, as the Jets would fit right in with that division this year.

New England hasn't been much better themselves in 2020 in the post-Brady era, as Cam Newton's fumble inside the 15 late last week vs Buffalo all but killed any realistic hope the Patriots had of winning another AFC East crown this year.

Four straight losses for the Patriots coming into this one, and yet, because they are sharing the field with the Jets, New England is still close to a doulbe-digit favorite for this game.

Should you be willing to lay that number, or will the Jets flirt with that first win of their 2020 campaign?

Betting Resources

Week 9 Matchup: AFC East
Venue: MetLife Stadium
Location: East Rutherford, New Jersey
Date: Monday, Nov. 9, 2020
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

Cam Newton and the Patriots look to end a four-game slide as New England battles New York. (AP)

Patriots-Jets Betting Odds

Spread: New England -9.5
Money-Line: New England -450, N.Y. Jets +375
Total: 41

2020 Betting Stats

New England

Overall: 2-5 SU, 3-4 ATS, 3-4 O/U
Road: 0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS, 2-1 O/U
Offense PPG: 19.4 (Rank 29)
Defense PPG: 23.9 (Rank 12)
Offense YPG: 351.7 (Rank 21)
Defense YPG: 357.3 (Rank 14)

N.Y. Jets

Overall: 0-8 SU, 1-7 ATS, 3-5 O/U
Home: 0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS, 2-2 O/U
Offense PPG: 11.8 (Rank 32)
Defense PPG: 29.8 (Rank 28)
Offense YPG: 259.0 (Rank 32)
Defense YPG: 398.9 (Rank 26)

Handicapping the Total

There isn't much need to fully outline just how bad the Jets have been this year, especially when the fact that they haven't scored more than 10 points in any one of their most recent four games is really all you need to know in that regard.

Sure, New England's four-game losing streak has been tough to take for Pats fans that only know winning, but this Jets team putting up 10 or fewer points for a month just looks that much worse. Half of those games came against AFC East rivals (Buffalo, Miami) as well. Overall, New York has had just one game of their eight this year where they've scored more than 17 points to begin with.

Interestingly enough though, that outlier game offensively for New York came in their only other appearance in prime time, as a 37-28 loss to Denver on TNF became the offensive shootout nobody ever expected to see. With MNF games this year averaging 46.33 points overall this year, a total in the low 40's still feels quite low, even if the offensively challenged Jets are involved.

Flip it around to the Jets defense, and you'll see that in three of their four home games this season the Jets have allowed 30+ points against, and if that tendency holds true here, New York won't need much more than their usual 10 points/game to do enough to help 'over' bettors cash a ticket.

Remember, it's not like the Patriots defense is playing at full strength these days either, as they've allowed at least 24 points in all three of their road games this season, and Buffalo left a few points on the table last week in hitting that 24-point mark.

So there is definitely a path to backing the 'over' in this game, and it is through that lens that I'm investing in this game. New York is on a 11-4 O/U run against another team with a losing record, and the fact that betting percentage numbers currently up at VegasInsider.com currently show healthy support (70%+) of action on the 'under' but this total has climbed a full point since opening at 41 is a move and scenario I can get behind.

Head-to-Head History

Oct. 21, 2019 - New England 33 at N.Y. Jets 0, Patriots -9.5, Under 43
Sep. 22, 2019 - New England 30 vs. N.Y. Jets 14, Jets +20.5, Over 43
Dec. 30, 2018 - New England 38 vs. N.Y. Jets 3, Patriots -14.5, Under 46.5
Nov. 25, 2018 - New England 27 at N.Y. Jets 13, Patriots -13, Under 46.5

Handicapping the Side

Playing 'over' the total is the much more comfortable betting option to me because when you look at the side it really comes down to two simple questions: Do you want a slumping New England team laying a full TD? Or would you prefer taking those points with a winless Jets team?

The answer to both questions in this spot is a resounding “no” from me, as I don't know how you can trust the Patriots to win comfortably, nor how you can trust the Jets to hang tough. Even in their other prime time appearance – the one where New York put up more than 17 points for the only time this year – the Jets still lost that game by nine to a Denver team that only just topped the 20-point mark themselves last week since that win over the Jets.

At the same time, Denver's a common foe for New England too, beating the Patriots, 18-12 in New England in the Broncos next game after the Jets contest, so laying the chalk with the Patriots isn't really an option either.

Belichick might be on an 8-0 SU run vs these piss poor Jets teams in recent years, but streaks like that are always made to be broken, and seeing the Jets win their first game of the year against the best organization of this century could turn out to be a cruel/beautiful version of poetic justice for just how far this Patriots organization has fallen this season.

Backup quarterback Joe Flacco is expected to start for the injured Sam Darnold on Monday Night Football and he hasn't looked sharp in either of his two previous starts this season for New York.

And while I'm aware that Flacco has gone 1-4 in his career versus New England during his tenure in Baltimore, he did lead the Ravens to 20-plus points in four of those contests.

So I'd lean to taking the points with New York as I do expect the Jets offense to find success, but that's also why the only play I'm comfortable making here is with the 'over.'

Key Injuries

New England

LB Ja'Whaun Bentley: Groin - Questionable
LB Shilique Calhoun: Knee - Questionable
DT Carl Davis: Concussion - Questionable
S Cody Davis: Calf - Questionable
S Kyle Dugger: Ankle - Questionable
K Nick Folk: Back - Questionable
CB Stephon Gilmore: Knee - Questionable
DE Lawrence Guy: Shoulder, elbow, knee - Questionable
RB Damien Harris: Ankle - Questionable
TE Ryan Izzo TE: Hamstring - Questionable
CB J.C. Jackson: Knee - Questionable
TE Dalton Keene: Knee - Questionable
C Shaq Mason: Calf - Questionable
DE John Simon: Elbow - Questionable
G Joe Thuney: Ankle Questionable
DE Deatrich Wise Jr.: Knee, hand - Questionable
T Isaiah Wynn: Ankle - Questionable
RB J.J. Taylor: Illness Out
WR N'Keal Harry: Concussion - Out

N.Y. Jets

C Josh Andrews: Shoulder - Questionable
LB Blake Cashman: Hamstrings - Out
WR Jamison Crowder: Groin - Questionable
QB Sam Darnold: Right Shoulder - Doubtful
K Sam Ficken: Right Groin - Doubtful
DE John Franklin-Myers: Knee - Questionable
C Connor McGovern: Knee - Questionable
DT Nathan Shepherd: Back - Questionable
WR Vyncint Smith: Groin -Doubtful
TE Trevon Wesco: Ankle -Out
DT Quinnen Williams: Hamstring - Doubtful

Betting Results

Home-Away: 4-5 SU, 5-4 ATS
Favorites-Underdogs: 5-4 SU, 6-3 ATS
Over-Under: 3-6

2020 Monday Night Football Betting Results

Week Matchup Line/Total Score ATS/Total
1 Pittsburgh at N.Y. Giants Steelers -6, 44 26-16 Favorite-Under
1 Tennessee at Denver Titans -3, 41.5 16-14 Underdog-Under
2 New Orleans at Las Vegas Saints -4, 47.5 34-24 Underdog-Over
3 Kansas City at Baltimore Ravens -3.5, 55 34-20 Underdog-Under
4 Atlanta at Green Bay Packers -5, 56.5 30-16 Favorite-Under
5 L.A. Chargers at New Orleans Saints -7, 49 30-27 (OT) Underdog-Over
6 Arizona at Dallas Cowboys -1, 56 38-10 Underdog-Under
7 Chicago at L.A. Rams Rams -6.5, 44 24-10 Favorite-Under
8 Tampa Bay at N.Y. Giants Buccaneers -12.5, 47 25-23 Underdog-Over
9 New England at N.Y. Jets - - -
10 Minnesota at Chicago - - -
11 L.A. Rams at Tampa Bay - - -
12 Seattle at Philadelphia - - -
13 Buffalo at San Francisco - - -
14 Baltimore at Cleveland - - -
15 Pittsburgh at Cincinnati - - -
16 Buffalo at New England - - -

Betting Recap - Week 9
Joe Williams

The largest underdogs to win straight up

Dolphins (+6, ML +220) at Cardinals, 34-31
Saints (+3.5, ML +160) at Buccaneers, 38-3
Bills (+3, ML +145) vs. Seahawks, 44-34
Giants (+3, ML +140) at Washington, 23-20

The largest favorites to cover

Packers (-6) at 49ers, 34-17 (TNF)
Titans (-6) vs. Bears, 24-17
Falcons (-4.5) vs. Broncos, 34-27
Vikings (-3) vs. Lions, 34-20

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week

The Houston Texans-Jacksonville Jaguars AFC South battle was a high-scoring affair in the first half, with the Texans leading 20-16 at halftime. Then, someone twisted the offensive spigot down to a slow drip in the third quarter, and then it was nearly off completely for most of the fourth quarter.

The score was 27-19 thanks to a PK Josh Lambo 30-yard field goal with 1:11 to go in the third quarter, as 'under' (49) bettors were hanging on by a thread. But as the fourth quarter went along, under bettors were starting to feel very good. And those laying the seven with Houston were also feeling increasingly well.

QB Jake Luton was making his first NFL start, and he did a decent enough job. In fact, the Jaguars actually had 22 first downs to 19 for the Texans, and they also edged Houston in rushing yards (115 to 107) and passing yards (297 to 267). Statistically, it was a very, very even game, and the turnover battle was 1-1, too.

The game probably should have finished the way it did, with the Jaguars falling 27-25. However, bettors on the line, as well as the total, saw a late change to the result. Luton had a 13-yard scoring scamper with 90 seconds remaining in regulation, changing the line late from a Texas cover, to a Jaguars cover, and that late score also flipped the total from an under to an over.

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week - Part II

The New York Giants-Washington Football Team (43) game, the second installment of this rivalry in 2020, went to the visitors by a 23-20 score. The game was on pace for an 'over' result with 23 total points on the board at halftime. After a so-so third quarter, giving us 33 points after 45 minutes, 'over' bettors were still on pace.

Things got crazy in the fourth quarter, as PK Dustin Hopkins opened the scoring just four seconds into the final stanza to slice the lead of the G-Men to 23-13. About four and a half minutes later Washington got the ball back, and backup QB Alex Smith, who entered for the injured QB Kyle Allen, struck for a 68-yard touchdown to WR Terry McLaurin. Not only were Washington moneyline bettors feeling much better about their prospects with just over 10 minutes to go, 'over' bettors were feeling very good, too. Unfortunately for everyone, that's where the scoring ended, and most total bettors had to settle for an unsatisfying push. At least that's how the game closed, so that's what we'll call it. If you bet the 'over' earlier in the week when the total was 41.5, 42 or 42.5, congrats.

Total Recall

The lowest totals on the board for the Sunday slate were the Baltimore Ravens-Indianapolis Colts (43) game, and the 'over' was never threatened

Well, we did get off to a quick start with a 7-7 score on the board after 15 minutes, but the nerves of 'under' bettors were quelled with just a field goal by PK Rodrigo Blankenship in the second quarter, and a lone RB Gus Edwards touchdown in the third. After 45 minutes we had just 24 total points on the board, and we didn't get our final score, 24-10, until PK Justin Tucker booted a 48-yard field goal with 2:08 to go. If only all wagers could go that easily.

The highest number on the board was the Seattle Seahawks-Buffalo Bills (55) battle, and that game certainly thrilled 'over' bettors and those who indulge in fantasy football, too. It was a end-to-end action with at least 13 total points in every single quarter. The home 'dog Bills fired out to a 14-0 lead, and they seemed to be able to keep the Seahawks at arm's length all day. After exchanging 10's in the second quarter, we had a 24-10 score at halftime, more than halfway to the 'over'. The lowest scoring quarter was the third, with 'just' 13 points, but a flurry of late activity gave us the highest scoring game of the weekend with 78 total points.

In the first two primetime games of Week 9, the over/under went 1-1. A late flurry by the San Francisco 49ers in the fourth quarter helped them push the total (48.5) over the finish line, falling 34-17 to the Green Bay Packers. The Sunday night battle between future Hall of Famers Tom Brady and Drew Brees saw 31 points on the board by halftime, all on the ledger of the Saints. A scoreless third quarter killed 'over' bettors, and we saw just 10 total points in the fourth. The Monday night battle with the New England Patriots-New York Jets (41) is pending, and featured the lowest line of Week 9.

So far this season the under is 19-9 (67.9%) across 28 primetime games. In 2019, the 'under' went 31-17-1 (64.6%) during primetime games.

Looking Ahead to Week 10

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET)
The Colts will be itching to get back onto the field after a disappointing 24-10 loss at home to Baltimore in Week 9. After two straight weeks with three touchdown throws, QB Philip Rivers was blanked and the Colts posted their lowest scoring total of the season. They have had a great time of it over the years against the Titans, especially against the number. Indy is 6-2 ATS in the past eight meetings in Nashville, and 13-4 ATS in the past 17 in this series overall. The road team has covered four of the past five overall. The Titans ended up posting a 24-17 win over the Bears at home in Week 9, just covering a 6.5-point number as the 'under' connected. It was the first under for Tennessee since Week 1, as the 'over' was 5-0-1 in the previous six.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)
The Buccaneers will be an angry bunch after getting manhandled by the rival New Orleans Saints on Sunday Night Football, in their home building no less, 38-3. The team's previous offensive low was 19 points, a one-point loss in Chicago. They'll look to bounce back against Carolina just like the last time they were dropped by the Saints. In Week 1, Tampa lost 34-23 at NOLA, before rebounding against the Panthers 31-17 at home as 7.5-point favorites. The Panthers lost its fourth straight game in Kansas City on Sunday, 33-31, but they covered a 10-point number. They also welcomed back RB Christian McCaffrey (ankle) for the first time since he was injured in Week 2 against, yep, Tampa. While Carolina is on an 0-4 SU run, they are 2-2 ATS during the span, and all four losses are one-score games. In fact, seven of Carolina's nine results are one-score games, with the Panthers going 2-5 SU.

Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders (Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET)
The Broncos were bounced in Atlanta, falling 34-27 to the Falcons. A late 21-point flurry for the Broncos helped push the total 'over', and they nearly came all the way back to cover. Denver hasn't lost consecutive games since opening 0-3 SU. The 'over' has cashed in three in a row for QB Drew Lock and the Broncos, and they're averaging 29.0 PPG across the past two. The Raiders won 31-26 on the road against the Chargers, and they have won and covered in back-to-back games for the first time since Week 1-2. They also posted an 'over' result after their first 'under' of 2020, and the over is now 6-1-1 overall. The Raiders will hope they brought the dominance over the Broncos with them to Vegas. The silver and black are 4-0 ATS in the past four home games against the Broncos, and 5-0 ATS In the previous five meetings overall. The home team is also 6-2 ATS in the past eight in this series, with the 'under' hitting in each of the past seven meetings.

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET)
Vikings RB Dalvin Cook ran roughshod over the Lions in Week 9, rolling up his first 200-yard game in the NFL. It helped Minnesota win in back-to-back game for the first time this season, and they improved to 5-1 ATS across the past six. The 'over' is also 3-0 in a season high three in a row, while going 5-1 in the past six overall. The Bears offense was flat again, falling 24-17 in Nashville against the Titans. After opening the season 5-1 SU/4-2 ATS, the Bears have dropped three in a row while going just 1-2 ATS. They're averaging a dismal 16.7 PPG in the three games, too, while allowing 24.7 PPG. The 'under' is on a 5-1 run for Chicago, too. We'll see if QB Kirk Cousins can finally get over the hump on Monday Night Football. He enters this one with an 0-9 record on Mondays posting 11 touchdowns and six interceptions in those games.