Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites.
NFL
Week 9
Trend Report
Houston vs NY Jets
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 7 games
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
NY Jets is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Houston
NY Jets is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing Houston
New England vs Tennessee
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 5 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
New England is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games when playing at home against New England
Dallas vs Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Dallas's last 7 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Dallas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Atlanta's last 7 games when playing at home against Dallas
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Denver vs Baltimore
Denver is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Denver is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Baltimore is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Denver
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Baltimore's last 8 games
Miami vs Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Miami's last 10 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games on the road
Buffalo is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Miami
Buffalo is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Miami
New Orleans vs Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of New Orleans's last 8 games when playing Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Orleans's last 6 games when playing on the road against Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Carolina's last 8 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina's last 6 games
Las Vegas vs Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Las Vegas's last 6 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Las Vegas's last 12 games when playing Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Las Vegas
Cincinnati is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Las Vegas
LA Chargers vs Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of LA Chargers's last 9 games
LA Chargers is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 7 games
Cleveland is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 games at home
Washington vs NY Giants
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 5 games on the road
Washington is 6-0-1 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Giants's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of NY Giants's last 7 games when playing at home against Washington
Chicago vs Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Chicago's last 7 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Arizona's last 7 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Arizona's last 12 games at home
Jacksonville vs Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 6 games
Jacksonville is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games on the road
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
LA Rams vs Seattle
LA Rams is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Rams's last 6 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing LA Rams
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing at home against LA Rams
Detroit vs Green Bay
Detroit is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Detroit is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Green Bay is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Green Bay is 20-5 SU in its last 25 games when playing at home against Detroit
Indianapolis vs Minnesota
Indianapolis is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Indianapolis is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
Minnesota is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Tampa Bay vs Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games
Tampa Bay is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Kansas City
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Armadillo Sports
2024 NFL
Week 9
Thursday’s game
Texans @ Jets (-2)
Texans (6-2)
Texans have five wins by 6 or fewer points.
Houston gave up 34-24 points in its two losses.
Last three games, Texans are +7 in turnovers.
Team total: under 6-2
Opponents’ team total: over 4-3-1
Texans are 10-4-1 ATS in last 15 games as a road underdog,
Houston is 7-9 ATS in last 16 games coming off a win.
2nd-year QB Stroud is 16-9 as an NFL starter.
Houston is 9-8-1 ATS in last 18 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Last two weeks, Texans were outscored 20-9 in second half.
AFC South underdogs are 4-7 ATS in non-divisional games.
Jets (2-6)
Jets are 0-5 SU/ATS in last five games.
Jets gave up 23-37-25 points in three games since coaching change.
Jets are 0-6 scoring less than 24 points.
Team total: under 4-1 last five
Opponents’ team total: over 4-0 last four
Jets are 4-10 ATS last 14 games as a home favorite.
Jets are 15-21 ATS last 36 games coming off a loss.
Last three weeks, Jets were outscored 45-12 in 2nd half.
Jets are 5-12-1 ATS last 18 games with spread of 3 or fewer points..
Jets converted only 20 of last 66 third down plays.
AFC East teams are 6-15-1 ATS in non-divisional games.
Teams split their last six meetings.
Texans won two of their last three visits to New Jersey.
Top NFL Things To Know
Something Is Off
Jets Favored vs. Texans
We may see the Jets close as favorites this week vs. Texans. In a team's 9th game or later, this could be just the 7th time since 1990 a team with a win pct 50+ pct pts lower is listed as a favorite.
The previous six teams listed as the favorite in that spot went 6-0 SU and 4-0-2 ATS.
Also worth noting, the Jets and Giants are now a combined 4-33 straight-up playing at night in prime time since 2019.
AFC Least
Division Struggles
Here is how divisions have performed ATS this year vs. teams outside their division.
The best? NFC North at 18-7 ATS, AFC West at 14-6 ATS
The worst? AFC East at 5-15-1 ATS, NFC South at 6-14 ATS
The AFC East’s 5-15-1 ATS mark through 8 weeks is the 2nd-worst in the Wild Card era (since 1990), ahead of just the AFC Central in 2000 at 3-10 ATS.
Best vs. Best
LaFleur & Campbell
The Packers are 2-1 SU/ATS as dogs this season. Matt LaFleur is 24-11 ATS (69%) as an underdog, the best percentage for any coach in the Super Bowl era. LaFleur is also 20-15 SU as a dog (+$1,695 on $100 bet).
In the regular season, Dan Campbell is 45-25 ATS (64%) as coach of the Dolphins and Lions. That 64% win pct is the best for any head coach with a minimum 20 games in the Super Bowl era.
The Lions are 41-17 ATS (70.7%) in the regular season over the past four years — the best three-year ATS stretch since 2016-18 NE and, as of now, the best four-year ATS stretch for any team in the Wild Card era since 1990.
Big Dog For You
Cashing Outright
Big underdogs are barking so far this season.
Dogs of +200 or higher: 15-24 SU (+$1,556), 23-14-2 ATS
Dogs of +250 or higher: 9-11 SU (+$1,557), 12-7-1 ATS
The 15 SU wins by dogs of +200 or higher is T-most through 8 weeks in the last 20 years.
Off 8 Mile
Impact After Facing Lions
Teams after facing the Lions are 0-6 SU/ATS this season, failing to cover by an average of 19.3 PPG and 14-25 ATS over the last three seasons – the least profitable previous opponent ATS in the NFL. Top 3: DET, HOU, SF
Public Strikes Back
Turn Around
The betting public (51%+ of tickets) are 57-59-3 ATS (49%) this season, with a $100 bettor down $711. We’ve seen a turn in the last three weeks.
Public by week:
Weeks 6-8: 29-13-1 ATS, 69% (Teams with 66%+ tickets are 21-6-1 ATS)
Weeks 1-5: 48-69-2 ATS, 41%
First Half Issues
Carolina Slow Starts
The reason for Carolina’s struggles of late have been starting slow. They are 1-14 against the first-half spread in their last 15 games overall, worst mark in the NFL in that span.
Bryce Young has now lost 11 consecutive games against the first-half spread with the Panthers.
Passing Is Down
Still Covering
Passing hasn’t equaled on-field success so far this season. Teams to pass for 200 yards or fewer are 54-50-2 ATS this year. That would be the 3rd-highest ATS win pct over a full season since 1990.
Absolute Zero
Eagles 1Q Woes
A stat that feels impossible. Through seven games, the Eagles haven’t scored a point in the first quarter. They are 0-7 against the first-quarter spread, the only team in the NFL without a 1Q ATS cover this year.
Dating back to last season, the Eagles haven’t scored a point in the 1Q in 9 straight games. The last game they did was against the Cardinals – a 12-yard TD pass from Jalen Hurts to Julio Jones.
Two Sides
Good and the Bad
This season, Caleb Williams is 7-0 against the second-half spread. The only undefeated QBs 2H ATS (min. 2 starts) are Joe Flacco (2-0) and Russell Wilson (2-0).
On the road, on a Sunday, the Bears have lost 18 consecutive games dating back to the day after Christmas in 2021 – won by Nick Foles – Andy Dalton, Justin Fields, Trevor Siemian, Tyson Bagent, and Caleb Williams have all lost since Foles' win.
Best NFL Week 9 betting trends
The trend: The Texans have gone Under in 16 of their last 22 regular season games
The trend: Kirk Cousins has thrown at least one interception in every Falcons’ home game this season
The trend: The Dolphins are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games
The trend: The Raiders haven’t covered a spread in Cincinnati since 1991
The trend: No Chargers game this season has reached the 40-point mark
The trend: The Titans are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite
The trend: Giants’ home games this season have an average combined score of just 31 points
The trend: Panthers games are 8-0 to the first half Over this season
The trend: The Ravens are 2-11-1 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite of seven or more
The trend: The Eagles are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite
The trend: Eight of the Bears’ last nine road games have gone Under
The trend: Under Matt LaFleur, Green Bay has gone an amazing 17-4 ATS as an underdog of three points or more.
The trend: The Rams are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 divisional games
The trend: The Colts have covered the spread in six straight games
The trend: The Bucs have gone Over in five straight games
Armadillo Sports
Monday’s 6-pack:
Week 10 NFL spreads:
— Bengals @ Baltimore (-6)
— Giants (-5) vs Carolina (@ Munich, Germany)
— Broncos @ Kansas City (-9)
— Steelers @ Washington (-2.5)
— Falcons (-3.5) @ New Orleans
— 49ers (-6) @ Tampa Bay
Quote of the Day
“What a unique, weird game that was. What a job by our group to come away with the win.”
Rams coach Sean McVay
Monday’s quiz
Who was the Miami Dolphins’ QB, last time they won a game in Buffalo?
Sunday’s quiz
Gerrit Cole broke into the major leagues with the Pittsburgh Pirates, in 2013.
Saturday’s quiz
In the TV show The West Wing, when President Bartlet’s daughter is kidnapped, the president steps aside until she is found. John Goodman’s character took over as president in those two episodes.
******************************************************
Monday’s Den: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday……..
Rams 26, Seahawks 20 OT
Seattle’s first five drives: 24 plays, 44 yards, 4 punts and an INT
Seattle’s next two drives: 2 TD’s 0:46 apart at end of first half.
Seahawks led 13-3 at halftime.
Seattle for rest of game: 37 plays, 185 yards, 7 points.
Seattle is 0-5 when it gives up more than 20 points.
Smith threw two INTs in red zone; one was run back 102 yards for a TD.
Stafford threw a 39-yard walk-off TD pass to Robinson in overtime.
Rams are 3-0 scoring 26+ points, 1-3 scoring 20 or fewer points.
Six of their eight games were decided by 6 or fewer points.
Last five games, opponents are 13-54 on third down.
Bills 30, Dolphins 27
Tyler Bass kicked a 61-yard FG with 0:10 left for the win.
Bass had previously missed a PAT, banked in another off an upright.
Dolphins had tied game on a TD with 1:38 left.
Miami lost six of its last seven games, last three by 1-5-3 points.
Dolphins led 10-6 at halftime.
Bills in 2nd half: four drives- 32 plays, 231 yards, 24 points.
Last four Buffalo games went over the total.
Bills won 15 of last 17 games vs Miami.
Buffalo outscored last five opponents 88-33 in second half.
Panthers 23, Saints 22
Carolina drove 64 yards, scored game-winning TD with 2:18 left.
Panthers’ win snapped their 5-game losing skid.
QB Young got his third win in 20 career NFL starts.
Saints had 10 penalties for 109 yards, Carolina six for 55.
Saints outgained Carolina 427-246, were +1 in turnovers but still lost.
New Orleans is 0-7 SU/1-6 ATS in its last seven games.
Last four games, New Orleans was outscored 84-22 in second half.
Saints are 1-6-1 ATS last eight games as a road favorite.
Ravens 41, Broncos 10
Ravens scored five TDs, kicked FG on their first seven drives.
WR Flowers caught five passes for 127 yards, two TD’s.
Baltimore is 6-1 SU/ATS in its last seven games.
Ravens scored 28+ points in their wins, 20-23-24 in losses.
Baltimore led this game 24-10 at halftime.
Denver had four drives of 44+ yards that ended with 4th down failures. Denver is 4-0 if they score more than 20 points, 1-4 if they score 20 or less.
Broncos’ last five games went over the total.
Chargers 27, Browns 10
Chargers led 20-3 at halftime.
Browns in first half: 28 plays, 52 yards, 5 punts, 3 points.
Chargers scored 22-26-23-26-27 points in wins, 10-10-15 in losses.
Last seven games, Chargers outscored foes 95-29 in 1st half.
Winston threw three INT’s, averaged only 4.1 yards/attempt.
Chargers are 8-4-2 ATS last 14 games as road favorites.
Under is 7-1 in Chargers’ first eight games.
AFC West favorites are 8-3 ATS in non-divisional games.
Bengals 41, Raiders 24
Bengals’ first five drives: 44 plays, 295 yards, 31 points.
Cincinnati outgained the Raiders, 373-217.
Burrow was 27-39/251 passing, with five TD’s.
Cincinnati is 21-10-1 ATS in last 32 games coming off a loss.
Bengals were 8-15 on third down, Raiders 5-13.
Raiders lost their last five games, by 16-19-5-7-7 points.
Las Vegas has 19 turnovers in nine games (minus-14).
Last six games, Raiders averaged 5.6 or fewer yards/pass attempt.
Commanders 27, Giants 22
Washington is 7-2 for the first time since 1996.
Commanders’ first 4 drives: 29 plays, 193 yards, 21 points.
Commanders are 5-1 ATS last six games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Washington converted 43 of last 85 third down plays.
Giants are 0-5 at home (1-4 ATS), scoring 4 TD’s on 48 drives.
Offense improved some in this game (3 TD’s on 7 drives).
QB Jones is 25-44-1 as an NFL starter.
Washington averaged 9.5 yards/pass attempt.
Famous birthdays, November 4th:
Loretta Swit, 87
Ralph Macchio, 63
Eric Karros, 57
Carlos Baerga, 56
Matthew McConaughey, 55
Orlando Pace, 49
Devin Hester, 42
Jared Verse, 24
Tyrese Maxey, 24
Falcons 27, Cowboys 21
Cousins threw 3 TD passes, averaged 8.1 yards/attempt.
Atlanta won five of its last six games SU.
Falcons were held to 10-17-14 points in their losses.
6-3 Atlanta leads NFC South by 1.5 games over Tampa Bay.
Dallas lost its last three games, giving up 47-30-27 points.
Cowboys ran ball for 137 yards, their most YR this season.
Cowboys outgained Atlanta, 378-310.
Dallas converted only once in five 4th down tries.
QB Prescott left with a hamstring injury.
Titans 20, Patriots 17 OT
NE QB Maye threw 5-yard TD pass on last play of regulation to force OT.
Titans drive 72 yards, kicked FG in OT, taking 7:28 off clock.
Tennessee outgained Patriots 400-295, were +2 in turnovers.
Titans converted 7-16 on third down, New England 3-11.
Patriots in first half: 27 plays, 109 yards, 3 points.
Patriots in 2nd half/OT: 40 plays, 152 yards, 14 points.
New England lost seven of its last eight games.
Patriots are 31-46 since Tom Brady left town.
Cardinals 29, Bears 9
3rd-string RB Demercado ran 53 yards for TD with 0:04 left in 1st half.
Cardinals have won three in a row, lead NFC West by a half-game.
Arizona ran ball for 213 yards, outgained Chicago 350-241.
Cardinals are 5-1 when they allow fewer than 34 points.
Bears averaged only 3.7 yards/pass attempt.
Chicago is 0-4 when they score less than 24 points.
Under Eberflus, Bears are 6-10-2 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less points.
Last five games, Bears are 17 of 57 on third down.
Eagles 28, Jaguars 23
Eagles led this game 22-0 with 6:00 left in third quarter.
Down 28-23, Jaguars had ball on Philly 13 with 1:40 left, but Nakobe Dean picked off a pass in the end zone to seal the win.
Jaguars are 7-2 ATS last nine games as a road underdog.
Six of their last seven games went over the total.
RB Barkley had 30 touches for 199 yards, two TD’s.
Eagles have won won four games in a row.
Philly outgained Jaguars 447-215, were 0-3 on 2-point conversions.
Eagles are 2-9-1 ATS in last 12 games as a home favorite.
Lions 24, Packers 14
Lions’ first four drives: 36 plays, 205 yards, 17 points.
QB Love threw an awful pick-6 with 0:32 left in 1st half.
Detroit led 17-3 at halftime, on a rainy day in Green Bay.
Under Campbell, Lions are 8-2 ATS as a road favorite.
Detroit is 7-1 ATS last eight NFC North road games.
Loss snaps Green Bay’s four-game winning streak.
Lions are 5-3 SU/6-2 ATS in last eight visits to Lambeau.
This was Detroit’s first game outdoors this season.
Last four games, Packers were outscored 40-9 in last 2:00 of half.
Green Bay outgained Lions 411-261; they were only 3-12 on 3rd down,
Vikings 21, Colts 13
Vikings in 1st half: 39 plays, 189 yards, 2 TO’s, 2 MFG’s.
Vikings in 2nd half: 33 plays, 232 yards, 21 points.
WR Jefferson caught seven passes for 137 yards.
NFC North home teams are 11-3 ATS in non-divisional games.
Colts led 7-0 at halftime, with only score a defensive TD.
Colts were outgained 415-227; they were 3-11 on 3rd down (Vikings 6-12)
Colts/Bears were only teams Sunday that didn’t score an offensive TD.
Vikings missed two field goals, 53 and 31 yard attempts.
NFL
Weather Report
Thursday, November 7
