Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Tuesday 9/3/19
NFL Week 1
Green Bay @ Chicago (-4)— Packers won 15 of last 18 series games; they’re 8-1 in last nine trips here, losing 24-17 in Week 15 LY. Chicago was 6-0 as a home favorite LY, after being 11-21 from 2010-17; last three years, Bears are 7-1-1 vs spread in NFC Central home games. Last two years, Green Bay is 4-10-1 vs spread as a single digit underdog, 4-6-1 as a road dog. Over last decade, favorites are 16-9 vs spread in Packers’ NFC Central road games. Green Bay won last four season openers, but lost five of last seven road openers; over is 11-2 in their last 13 RO’s. Chicago started 0-1 the last five years; they lost four of last five home openers (under 3-1-1).
Atlanta @ Minnesota (-4)— Under Zimmer, Minnesota is 22-7-1 vs spread as a home favorite, 16-2-1 outside NFC North. Vikings won last three series games; Falcons won three of last five visits to the Twin Cities. Last two years, Atlanta is 4-12 vs spread on road, 1-6 as a road underdog; they’re 6-14 vs spread n last 20 non-division games. Falcons won three of last four road openers; they split last eight season openers. Five of their last six RO’s stayed under. Minnesota won four of last five season openers; they won/covered their last four home openers- Vikings’ last five HO’s stayed under. Minnesota struggled to find a kicker this summer; they traded a 5th-round pick for a kicker, then cut him three weeks later.
Washington @ Philadelphia (-8.5)— Keenum is on his 4th team in four years; he started 39 games (21-18) the last three years. Eagles won last four series games, all by 10+ points; Skins lost last two visits here, 34-24/28-13. Since 2012, Iggles are 7-13-1 vs spread in NFC East home games; under Pederson, Philly is 8-8-1 as a HF (2-6 LY). Last three years, Redskins are 11-8 vs spread as a road underdog- they covered once in last six NFC East road games. Washington snapped a 5-game skid on Opening Day LY; they won last three road openers. Over is 7-3 in their last ten RO’s. Philly started 1-0 in seven of last eight seasons; they won four of last five home openers (under 4-1). Redskins’ LT Williams is holding out; thats a problem.
Buffalo at Jets (-3)— Teams split eight meetings last four years, going 2-2 in each stadium; average total in last three meetings is 52. Gase lost three of last four games vs Bills when he was in Miami. Jets won six of their last eight home openers; since ’13, they’re 16-8-2 as a home underdog. Over last decade, Gang Green is 11-3 as an AFC East home dog. Since 2014, Buffalo is 2-6-1 vs spread as a road favorite; they’re opening on road for first time in five years. Over last decade, Bills are 1-3 vs spread as an RF in AFC East road games. Bills lost last three road openers, scoring 7-3-3 points. Gase was 7-3-1 as a home underdog with the Dolphins. Jets picked up the kicker Minnesota cut, so they’re struggling to find a kicker, too.
Baltimore (-4.5) @ Miami— Miami traded LT Tunsil and two other starters for mostly draft picks, so they’ve already given up on this year, like Oakland did LY. Ravens won last three Week 1 games by combined score of 80-10; they’re 7-4 vs spread in last 11 road openers. Baltimore won last two games wth Miami by a combined score of 78-6, with last meeting in ’17. Since 2013, Baltimore is 6-11-1 as a road favorite. Over is 8-3-1 in their last dozen RO’s. Miami covered five of its last six home openers (4-2 SU). Dolphins’ last ten home openers stayed under the total; nine of their last ten RO’s went over. Over last eight years, Ravens are 14-25-2 vs spread in non-division road games. Since 2012, Dolphins are 14-7-2 as home underdogs, 9-3-1 outside the AFC East. 36-year old Fitzpatrick leads an offense that just traded his blindside protection.
San Francisco @ Tampa Bay (-1)— When Arians was in Arizona, he won his last six meetings with SF. Last four years, 49ers are 5-27 SU on road; they’re 8-12 vs spread in last 20 road tilts outside NFC West. Over last five years, Bucs are 16-24 vs spread at home. 49ers lost last four road openers (1-3 vs spread), losing by average of 13.8 ppg; four of their last six road openers stayed under. Tampa Bay won its last two Week 1 games, scoring 31-48 points; they didn’t play in Week 1 in 2017 because of a hurricane. Arians was 2-3 in openers while he was Arizona’s coach. Keeping an eye out to see if the hurricane impacts life in the Tampa Bay area.
Kansas City (-3.5) @ Jacksonville— Chiefs won last four season openers; they covered five of last six road openers. Over is 5-3 in their last eight RO’s. Since ’13, KC is 15-7 vs spread as road favorites, 8-4 outside AFC West. KC won last four series games, pounding Jags 30-14 (-3) at home LY- they’re 2-4 SU in six visits here, with last visit in ‘13. Under Marrone, Jaguars are 6-4 as home underdogs, after being 10-24-1 from 2009-15. Jacksonville won its last two season openers, but lost six of last seven home openers- they’re 3-9 vs spread in 12 HO’s. Four of their last five home openers went over.
Tennessee @ Cleveland (-5.5)— Lot of pressure on Browns; they’re actually favored to win AFC North. Since re-joining NFL in 1999, Browns are 1-18-1 SU in Week 1; they tied Steelers in LY’s opener. Cleveland did cover five of last seven home openers. Tennessee beat Browns last two years, by total of five points- they nipped Cleveland 12-9 in OT here LY. Titans lost last three season openers, but won/covered five of last six road openers. Over last nine years, Browns are 7-14-2 as a HF, 6-10-2 outside AFC North- over last three years, they’re 1-3 ATS when favored. Tennessee was 6-4 vs spread as an underdog LY, in Vrabel’s first year as HC.
Rams (-3) @ Carolina— Under McVay, Rams won their season openers 46-9/33-13; they’re 7-6 as RF under McVay, 3-4 outside NFC West. Since 2014, Panthers are 7-3 as home dogs, 4-0 outside the NFC South. Since 2000, Rams are 4-15 vs spread in road openers (4-5 in last nine). Four of their last five road openers stayed under total. Carolina won its last five home openers, allowing 8-3 points last two years; they won four of last five season openers. Under is 5-1 in their last six HO’s. Carolina won six of last seven series games, but teams haven’t met in McVay era. Rams’ lost last three visits here, with last win 38-32 in 2001. Since 2003, Super Bowl loser is 3-13 vs spread in its first game the next season.
Detroit (-1.5) @ Arizona— Rookie head coach, rookie QB; Cardinals are a great unknown. Lions beat Arizona last two years, after losing previous seven meetings. Last five years, Lions are 11-4-4 vs spread when laying 3 or fewer points; they were 5-0 vs spread LY in non-divisional road games. Last three years, Cardinals are 8-16 SU at home; since 2013, Redbirds are 18-11-1 vs spread in non-divisional home games. Detroit started six of last eight seasons 1-0; Lions covered last three road openers; over is 9-4-1 in their last 14. Cardinals lost last three home openers, scoring 14.7 ppg; six of their last seven home openers stayed under.
Cincinnati @ Seattle (-8.5)— Seahawks won their last ten home openers (8-2 vs spread); under is 15-2-1 in their last 18 HO’s. Bengals won four of last five road openers; eight of their last nine RO’s went over total. Cincy won four of last five Week 1 games. Bengals won three of last four series games; home side won five of last six meetings- Cincy lost three of last four visits here. Last four years, Seattle is 12-15-1 vs spread as a home favorite, 8-8-1 outside NFC West. Since 2011, Bengals are 22-14-4 vs spread as road underdogs, 12-7-3 outside AFC North. New coaches went 0-7 SU (1-6 ATS) in Week 1 LY, after they were 17-10 SU from 2014-17.
Indianapolis @ Chargers (-7)— Line jumped after Andrew Luck retired; Brissett was 4-11 as a starter for the ’17 Colts. Last five years, Chargers are 13-25 vs spread at home, whether it be San Diego or Carson, 11-14 outside AFC West. Chargers won six of last eight meetings, taking pair of playoff wins over Indy in 2007-08. Teams haven’t met in California since 2013. Last four years, Colts are 11-9 vs spread as non-division road underdog. Colts lost seven of last nine road openers; they’ve started last five seasons 0-1. Indy’s last three season openers went over. LA lost its two home openers in Carson after winning six of last seven in San Diego; 13 of their last 16 HO’s went over. Bolts started last three seasons 0-1.
Giants @ Dallas (-7.5)— Giants lost seven of last eight season openers; they’re playing road opener in Dallas for 6th time in last seven years. NY is 2-7 in last nine RO’s overall, 1-4 in last five RO’s here- their last three RO’s stayed under. Cowboys are 4-0 vs Big Blue last two years, winning 19-3/20-13 here. Dallas won six of last eight home openers; they split last ten season openers, with four of last five staying under. Last couple years, Giants are 10-4 vs spread as road underdogs, but only 2-3 in NFC East games. Since 2010, Cowboys are 9-22-1 vs spread when laying points in divisional home games. RB Elliott is still holding out, which is a problem for the Dallas offense.
Pittsburgh @ New England (-6)— Pitt opens on road for 5th straight year; since 1997, Steelers are 1-8-1 vs spread when an underdog in their road opener; five of their last six RO’s stayed under. Patriots won 15 of last 17 home openers, but are 2-4-1 vs spread in last seven (under 5-2). NE started 13 of last 15 seasons 1-0, losing in ’14/’17. Patriots won five of last six series games; Pitt lost last three visits here, with last win at NE in 2008. Over last decade, Steelers are 18-11-1 vs spread as road underdog, 5-0 last three years; they’re 25-15-2 vs spread in last 42 games as a single digit underdog. Since 2013, Patriots are 28-13-3 as home favorites, 17-8-1 outside AFC East. Last five Super Bowl champs are 3-1-1 vs spread in their season opener the next year.
Houston @ New Orleans (-7)— Saints started last five seasons 0-1; NO lost its last four home openers and were favored in three of them- last three went over total, with Saints giving up 35-36-48 points. Since 2014, New Orleans is 13-20-1 as a home favorite, 8-13-1 outside NFC South. Home side won all four series games; Texans lost 31-10/40-33 in their visits here. Under O’Brien, Houston is 14-16-1 as road underdogs (3-1 LY)- they covered six of last eight games as a non-divisional road dog. Texans lost three of last four road openers (under 4-0); in franchise history, they’re 4-8 vs spread in RO’s. Houston fortified QB Watson’s blindside by trading for LT Tunsil.
Denver @ Oakland (-2.5)— Broncos are opening on road for first time since 2010; they won last seven season openers, but obviously, all those were in Denver. New coach, new QB for Denver, which over last nine years is 4-12 vs spread as an AFC West road underdog. Over last decade, Oakland is 13-18 as a home favorite. Broncos are 7-8 in last 15 road openers, with three of last four going over total. Raiders lost four of last five home openers; since 2003, they’re 4-12 vs spread in HO’s, with four of last five going over. Teams split season series last four years; Raiders lost six of last seven visits here, dropping last three, by 1-6-18 points. This is likely Raiders’ last home opener in Oakland, with Las Vegas move on deck in 2020.
Hot & Not Report - Week 1
Matt Blunt
It's finally here. After a long seven-month off-season, regular season NFL games will finally grace millions of television screens across the world this week. It's the 100th year of the league and because of that celebration we get a Packers/Bears opening game on TNF instead of the defending champs raising a banner, as that waits until SNF when that broadcast crew heads to New England.
But it's the first week of the season which means hope springs eternal for every player and fan across the entire league, and Week 1 action is one where there is typically no shortage of action on seemingly every game. With that in mind, I've gone out and grouped together two specific scenarios that apply to seven games in Week 1, including that opener in Chicago.
Let's get right to it:
Who's Hot
Week 1 Underdogs in Divisional games – 11-4-2 ATS the past four years
It's not the easiest thing in the NFL to start out a new season with an all-important divisional game, but it's become part of the routine for Giants and Cowboys fans. Dallas and the New York Giants have met in Week 1 in three of the past four years, and will do so again this year as part of the late afternoon slate on Sunday. New York is catching a touchdown in that contest, and if recent history is any indication, grabbing those points may be worth your time.
Underdogs in divisional games have cashed ATS tickets at 73% clip (ignoring pushes) the past four years. Seven of those 11 cashes have been thanks to road underdogs like the role the Giants find themselves in this week. But New York is a team many are going to take a big leap of faith on to back in certain spots this year given their season-long projections, but there are given that underdogs catching at least 6 full points on the spread in Week 1 divisional games account for a 6-3 ATS mark in that 11-4-2 record, grabbing the perceived far worse team does tend to pay out. Given that the three ATS wins by favorites in that scenario have come by 1.5, 16, and 2 points clear of the closing line, and the six underdogs that cashed those tickets are 2-4 SU as well, money bets shouldn't be taken off the table either.
Last year there were just three divisional games on the Week 1 card and the underdog cashed in all of them. Cleveland managed to tie Pittsburgh, the Tampa Bay Bucs shocked New Orleans with a 48-40 win as 10-point road underdogs, and the Bears blew an early outright lead in a 24-23 loss to Green Bay that will always be remembered for Aaron Rodgers return from a 1st half injury.
So it's not like recent form isn't there either, and with Green Bay (+3.5) @ Chicago (TNF), Washington (+9.5) @ Philadelphia, Buffalo (+3) vs NY Jets, NY Giants (+7) vs Dallas, and Denver (+1) vs Oakland as potential options in 2019, breaking down those games and teams further over the next few days can only help your bankroll.
That's because when you think about why a run like this has happened for divisional underdogs in Week 1 on a macro scale, it's boils down to a few simplistic things. The biggest of those being that it's still the first week of a season, and no matter what the summer-long projections have looked like, or what these point spreads suggest, nobody in the market really has a full grasp on what any team is going to be about in 2019.
Sure, there are plenty of handicappers who go the armchair GM route and break down things by ranking players, the bettors who are good at doing that are few and far between. It tends to be their action that influences early market moves in a Week 1 atmosphere, while the rest of it is just white noise. If you were to transplant Week 1 games to say Week 10, when much more is known about all 32 NFL teams (on both sides of the counter), chances are nearly every line would look significantly quite different. That's not to say betting 'dogs across the board is a phenomenal strategy in Week 1, but if there ever was a week to use the idea that “the wrong team may be favored”, Week 1 would be it. And recent history suggests that divisional 'dogs tend to be the way to go.
Who's Not
Week 1 Home teams in non-conference games – 5-10 SU last three years
Division games aren't the only ones to target in Week 1, as non-conference games are another specific scenario that has shown a profitable angle the past three years. That would be to fade the home team ATS and/or SU as they've only won outright five times in 15 tries over the past three years. 2019 has two games that fit this bill – Cincinnati vs Seattle (-9.5) and Houston vs New Orleans (-7) on MNF.
With Seattle and New Orleans being the chalk layers at home this year, fading both of them in following this system is best done against the spread, as you are getting at least a touchdown on both. Houston's got to be more attractive then the Bengals are from a sheer health and talent standpoint, but this recent trend doesn't discriminate, as all three times it's applied where the home side has been laying at least a TD, the underdog is a perfect 3-0 ATS with two outright wins. One of those was last year's MNF game between the Jets and Lions where New York went into Detroit and laid the wood to the Lions (48-17), while the other was a Jimmy Garoppolo game with New England back in 2016 when Brady was sitting out his Deflategate suspension.
Seattle and New Orleans are arguably the two places with the best home field advantage in the sport though, so Cincinnati and Houston could be in tough in terms of outright wins. But history is on their side this week, and like I said earlier, it's still Week 1 and nobody anywhere has a great handle on any of these teams quite yet.
One more thing for these two games to keep in mind this week as well. The 'over' has gone 9-6 in non-conference games the past three years with the average score clocking in at 48.2 points per game. The Houston/New Orleans total is currently sitting about five points higher than that in the 53.5 range, but the Bengals/Seahawks contest is on the complete opposite end of the spectrum sitting five points lower at 43. That might be the game that 'over' bettors want to target, as only six of those 15 games had fewer than 44 points scored.
Tech Trends - Week 1
Bruce Marshall
Thursday, Sept. 5
GREEN BAY at CHICAGO (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)
LaFleur Pack debut! Teams have split last 8 games since 2015. Pack only 5-010-1 as dog past two years (much of that minus Rodgers, however. Nagy 7-1 vs. line at home in reg season LY’s debut, Bears also 9-3 as chalk in 2018. Chicago closed 2018 “under” 7 in a row.
Tech Edge: Bears and slight to “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.
Sunday, Sept. 8
ATLANTA at MINNESOTA (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Falcs 4-12 vs. line last two years on reg season road. Zimmer 11-4-1 vs. spread as host since 2017, also “under” 9-1-1 last 11 home.
Tech Edge: Vikings and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.
WASHINGTON at PHILADELPHIA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Birds have won and covered last four meetings since 2017. Though Philly just 2-6 vs. points at Linc LU after Pederson was 11-4-1 vs. spread reg season as host previous two years. Note division dogs 17-4 vs. line last 21 in opening week.
Tech Edge: Slight to Eagles, based on series trends.
BUFFALO at NY JETS (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Gase Jets debut! Teams split four the past two years, though Gase 0-3-1 vs. line vs. Bills last two years with Miami. Jets 0-4-1 vs. points last five at home. Bills “under” 8-2 last 10 away
Tech Edge: Slight to Bills, based on team trends.
BALTIMORE at MIAMI (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Flores Dolphins debut! Miami 7-3-1 as home dog for Gase past three years, but failed to cover last 8 vs. Ravens (all Harbaugh). Balt won and covered last 3 openers, and covered last 3 away LY.
Tech Edge: Ravens, based on team trends.
SAN FRANCISCO at TAMPA BAY (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Arians Bucs debut! The last two Arians Cards teams were only 12-19-1 vs. line. Niners only 2-6 vs. line away LY and lost 27-9 at Raymond James. Bucs have won and covered last three openers.
Tech Edge: Slight to Bucs, based on team trends.
KANSAS CITY at JACKSONVILLE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Jags closed 2018 on 2-10 SU and 3-8-1 spread run down stretch. Marrone was 3-0 as home dog LY, though Jags on 6-11-1 spread slide last 18 reg season games. Also “under” 11-6 last 17 reg season games. Andy Reid 7-2 vs. line last nine away, and Chiefs 9-1 “over” last ten away.
Tech Edge: Chiefs and slight to “over,” based on team and “totals’ trends.
TENNESSEE at CLEVELAND (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Browns closed 2018 on 5-2 spread run. Titans have lost and failed to cover last three openers. Vrabel 6-4 as dog LY.
Tech Edge: Slight to Browns, based on team trends.
LA RAMS at CAROLINA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Rams only covered 4 of last 12 in reg season LY, also “under” 6-2 as reg season visitor LY. Cam 4-1 as home dog since 2017, 16-8 overall as dog past four years.
Tech Edge: Slight to Panthers, based on team trends.
DETROIT at ARIZONA (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Kingsbury Cards debut! Lions ended 2018 “under” last 7 and 9 of last 10 games. Big Red “under” 1–5 as host past two years.
Tech Edge: “Under” and slight to Lions, based on “totals” and team trends.
CINCINNATI at SEATTLE (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Taylor Bengals debut! Cincy was 6-2 as away dog LY for Marvin Lewis. Pete Carroll 5-2-1 vs. line at home LY, and 9-5-2 overall vs. number. Hawks also “over” 7 of last 8 LY.
Tech Edge: “Over” and slight to Seahawks, based on “totals” and team trends.
INDIANAPOLIS at LA CHARGERS (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Colts were 6-3-1 v. line LY down stretch in reg season but that was with Luck. Indy covered 4 of last 9 in 2017 with Brissett. Bolts just 2-6 as home chalk LY.
Tech Edge: Slight to Colts, based on team trends.
NY GIANTS at DALLAS (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Dallas has now won and covered last four vs. Giants, though both close LY. Eli was 6-1 as road dog in 2018 and Giants 10-4 in role since 2017. Five of last six in series “under” (exception was Week 16 game LY).
Tech Edge: Slight to Giants and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.
PITTSBURGH at NEW ENGLAND (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)
Tomlin finally beat Belichick LY after losing and failing to cover previous five. Last four meetings “under” as well. Belichick 13-3 vs. line last 16 at home. Tomlin has covered last five as road dog and was 6-0 as underdog LY.
Tech Edge: Belichick, based on extended series trends.
Monday, Sept. 9
HOUSTON at NEW ORLEANS (ESPN, 7:10 p.m. ET)
Texans 3-1 as away dog LY but only 8-8-1 overall vs. line. Saints have failed to cover last five openers. Saints also “over” 11-6 last 17 at Superdome.
Tech Edge: “Over” and slight to Texans, based on “totals” and team trends.
DENVER at OAKLAND (ESPN, 10:15 p.m. ET)
Fangio Broncos debut! Denver closed 2018 “under” nine in a row, and last 5 “under” vs. Oakland. Raiders have covered last 3 in series.
Tech Edge: “Under,” based on “totals” trends.
TNF - Packers at Bears
By Kevin Rogers
PRESEASON RECORDS
Green Bay: 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS, 4-0 O/U
Chicago: 1-3 SU, 1-3, 4-0 O/U
The Bears were limited to 15 points or fewer in three exhibition losses, while dropping to 3-6 in the last two preseasons. The Packers won both their home games, but lost both their exhibition contests away from Lambeau Field. Since 2016, Green Bay hasn’t lost a home preseason game by posting an 8-0 record.
2018 REVIEW
Green Bay: 6-9-1 SU, 6-9-1 ATS, 8-8 O/U
Chicago: 12-4 SU, 12-4 ATS, 8-8 O/U
The Packers qualified for the postseason for eight consecutive seasons from 2009-2016, which included a Super Bowl title in 2010 over the Steelers. However, Green Bay has been shut out of the playoffs the last two seasons, while suffering its worst record since Aaron Rodgers’ rookie season of 2008 when the Packers finished 6-10.
Green Bay didn’t win consecutive games once last season, while grabbing only one victory within the NFC North. Five of the Packers’ six wins came against teams owning losing records, as longtime head coach Mike McCarthy was fired following a Week 13 defeat as a 13 ½-point home favorite to Arizona. In spite of the struggles in the win column, quarterback Aaron Rodgers put together one of the best seasons of his career by throwing 25 touchdown passes and only two interceptions, while accumulating 4,442 yards through the air.
The Bears captured their first NFC North title since 2010 as Matt Nagy’s first season as head coach was an absolute success. Although Chicago lost to Philadelphia in the Wild Card round on a missed field goal in the closing seconds, the Bears won their most games since 2006, when they took home the NFC championship. Four of Chicago’s five losses came by three points or fewer, while the Bears covered the spread 11 times in 12 victories.
Mitchell Trubisky rebounded from a rough rookie season to throw for 3,223 yards and 24 touchdowns, but was intercepted 12 times. The acquisition of standout linebacker Khalil Mack from Oakland prior to the season boosted Chicago’s defense, which finished third in the NFL in yards allowed per game (299.7), and tops in the league in rushing defense (80 yards per game).
HOME/ROAD SPLITS
The Bears put together a solid 7-1 SU/ATS regular season record at Soldier Field in 2018 with the lone loss coming to the Patriots in a 38-31 Week 7 setback. Chicago’s defense yielded 17 points or less in five home games, while giving up 16 points in the playoff loss to Philadelphia. This was in stark contrast to the 3-5 home mark in 2017, as the Bears scored 17 points or fewer in regulation six times that season.
It took until the final road game of the season for Green Bay to break through away from Lambeau Field in a Week 16 overtime triumph over the Jets. The Packers had lost their first seven away contests, while covering only once in the road underdog role in a 29-27 defeat to the Rams as 7 ½-point ‘dogs in Week 8.
SERIES HISTORY
The Packers and Bears kick off the season in primetime for the second consecutive season after Green Bay rallied to stun Chicago, 24-23 at Lambeau Field in Week 1. The Bears jumped out to a commanding 17-0 halftime lead, highlighted by a 27-yard interception return for a touchdown by Mack on an errant screen pass by backup quarterback DeShone Kizer.
Rodgers exited the game in the second quarter with a leg injury, but limped back after halftime to lead an epic comeback as Green Bay erased a 20-0 deficit. Rodgers connected on a pair of touchdown passes to Geronimo Allison and Davante Adams early in the fourth quarter, while hitting Randall Cobb on a 75-yard scoring strike in the final minutes to put the Packers in front. In spite of the loss, the Bears grabbed the cover as seven-point underdogs, while the final touchdown pushed the total over 45.
Chicago picked up revenge against Green Bay in Week 15 by clinching the NFC North title in a 24-17 victory to cash as 5 ½-point favorites. Trubisky tossed a pair of touchdowns, including a 13-yard connection to Trey Burton in the fourth quarter to break a 14-14 tie. The win snapped a five-game skid to the Packers dating back to 2016, while Chicago beat Green Bay at home for the first time since 2010.
THURSDAY NIGHT HISTORY
The underdog has won outright in the Thursday night season opener in each of the past three seasons. The Broncos (+3) edged the Panthers, 21-20 in a Super Bowl matchup in 2016, while the Chiefs (+8) chased the Patriots in 2017 at Gillette Stadium in a 42-27 upset. Last season, the Eagles (+1) slipped past the Falcons, 18-12 in a playoff rematch, marking a victory by the home team in the league season opener for the fifth time in the last six seasons.
For the fourth time in five years, the Packers and Bears are meeting for a Thursday night contest and for the first time in this stretch, the game will be played in Chicago. Green Bay won the last two Thursday matchups with Chicago by double-digits, including a 35-14 blowout at Lambeau in 2017.
SEASON OPENERS
The Packers have won four consecutive Week 1 games with the most recent loss coming on a Thursday night at Seattle in 2014. Green Bay started the last two seasons at home as the Pack is playing their first road season opener since 2016 at Jacksonville when they edged the Jaguars, 27-23.
The Bears are looking to snap a five-game skid in season openers with the last Week 1 win occurring in 2013 against the Bengals. Chicago is favored in a season opener for the first time since 2014 when the Bears were tripped up by the Bills in overtime, 23-20 as seven-point chalk.
HANDICAPPER’S CORNER
VegasInsider.com expert Joe Nelson checks in with his thoughts on these old rivals hooking up on Thursday, “There isn’t a clear consensus on either of these teams for 2019 with the Packers featuring an unproven head coach in Matt LaFleur and Rodgers battling injuries the past two seasons and last season featuring the lowest touchdown count of his career in a season in which he played in all 16 games. The Packers went just 6-9-1 last season, but six defeats came by a single-score as it isn’t hard to envision a turnaround in 2019 back to contention in the NFC.”
From a primetime standpoint, that advantage belongs to Green Bay’s All-Pro quarterback according to Nelson, “Trubisky has not yet played on a Thursday night game and he has eight interceptions in going 3-2 in night games in his career. Rodgers is 26-22 in prime time contests in his career, going 8-4 on Thursdays with 26 touchdowns and only four interceptions as there is a clear disparity in the experience levels on this stage.”
In the Week 15 matchup at Soldier Field last December, Nelson points out some interesting tidbits from Chicago’s seven-point win, “The box score reveals a few surprises from that most recent meeting with the Packers posting a big edge in rushing per attempt at 4.6 compared to 3.4 for Chicago, while Trubisky and the Bears averaged 3.0 more yards per pass than Rodgers and the Packers. Green Bay had twice as many penalty yards and took five sacks in a game that was led by Joe Philbin as an interim coach.”
PLAYER PROPS - According to Westgate Superbook
Total Gross Passing Yards - Aaron Rodgers (GB)
Over 267 ½ (-110)
Under 267 ½ (-110)
Total Touchdown Passes - Aaron Rodgers (GB)
Over 1 ½ (-110)
Under 1 ½ (-110)
Total Receiving Yards - Devante Adams (GB)
Over 81 ½ (-110)
Under 81 ½ (-110)
Total Completions - Mitchell Trubisky (CHI)
Over 21 ½ (-110)
Under 21 ½ (-110)
Total Touchdown Passes - Mitchell Trubisky (CHI)
Over 1 ½ (-110)
Under 1 ½ (-110)
LINE MOVEMENT
The Bears opened up as 3 ½-point favorites at the Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas back in April, as Chicago has dropped slightly to three-point chalk. The opening total of 46 has stayed put at the Westgate, which is a half-point lower than the Week 15 game in Chicago last season.
Bet Now/Bet Later NFL Week 1 odds: Have patience with these primetime lines
Jason Logan
The Steelers are anywhere between +5.5 and +6.5 for their season debut versus the Patriots on Sunday Night Football in Week 1.
Being a successful sports bettor is not about betting on the best team, but betting the best number. Scoring the optimal odds for your wager can sometimes be a race to the window – or your mobile – to get the spread or total you want before it changes. Or, sometimes it’s a waiting game until just before kickoff, projecting how the public players will manipulate the numbers.
Senior Industry Analyst Jason Logan gives you a heads-up on the best “Bet Now/Bet Later” games on the NFL board each week.
As for Week 1, this is an unusual slate since the spreads and totals come out when the schedule is announced in the spring. The 2019 NFL Week 1 odds hit the board back in mid-April and have taken action ever since. However, books estimate as much as 95 percent of their total handle (money taken on the games) will come in the three days leading up to kickoff, so there's plenty of time for significant line moves.
SPREAD TO BET NOW: LOS ANGELES CHARGERS -6
When the news broke that Andrew Luck was retiring from football, the Indianapolis Colts went from +3 to as high as +8.5 at some sportsbook for their Week 1 road game against the Los Angeles Chargers. As bettors reacted to that shift, the line eventually settled at Chargers -7 and even dropped to -6 days before the opener.
Honestly, I was surprised the spread on the Bolts dipped under the key number of a touchdown, but sharp money is pushing this in favor of the Colts. If you do like Los Angeles, getting the host under a TD is a gift as I do project the spread climbing in the days before kickoff Sunday.
As public money comes in, those players will be reacting to a Luck-less Indianapolis team on the road. That opinion will add a point or maybe even two to this spread before closing Sunday afternoon. I could see it close Chargers -7.5 or even -8 – a dead number for a strange game to handicap. If you like L.A., bang it now before joe public puffs up this spread.
SPREAD TO BET LATER: PITTSBURGH STEELERS -6
AFC heavyweights collide when the Pittsburgh Steelers take on the New England Patriots on Sunday Night Football. This line opened Patriots -6 and has bounced around a bit, with a few -6.5 spreads popping up and a handful of books dealing -5.5 as well.
While we don’t know how quick Tom Brady will gel with some of his new receivers, we do know the public money is going to be riding New England in this opener – even with Pittsburgh among the most popular teams in the NFL.
Not only will there be plenty of plays on the favorite in this primetime game, but most parlays still alive come Sunday night will be riding on the defending Super Bowl champs. Due to this, those bettors siding with the Steelers may want to wait it out until Sunday night and see if they can get Pittsburgh +6.5 or maybe even +7. This is one of those games for which you should have multiple accounts and the ability to shop around.
TOTAL TO BET NOW: GREEN BAY AT CHICAGO - OVER 46.5
The football-starved masses get their first bite of NFL regular season action when the NFC North takes center stage on Thursday Night Football. The total for Packers at Bears opened at 46 and has ticked a half-point higher to 46.5, with early money on the Over.
I’m expecting more of the same in the hours before kickoff, driving the total upwards and shifting the vig on the Over and Under. If you look back at past NFL season openers, they’ve seen an uptick in Over play on gameday until right before kickoff, capped by last-second Under money from the wiseguys.
If you do like the Over Thursday, now might be the best time to pull the trigger. The Bears offense has gotten a ton of hype this season (Mitch Trubisky for MVP, anyone?) and Aaron Rodgers playing in a new system should get people excited. For me, it's all about the Chicago defense and a Packers stop unit that is building on a solid 2018 effort, but if you're banking on fireworks, bet the Over now.
TOTAL TO BET LATER: HOUSTON AT NEW ORLEANS – UNDER 53.5
Another primetime game with a tempting total is Houston at New Orleans Monday night. This is the highest number on the Week 1 board, and for good reason. The Texans and Saints have a surplus of talents in the passing game and boast two defenses that gave up chunks of yardage through the air last season.
On top of that perception, the Monday Night Football crowd loves to bet “favorite and Over” each week, which means this sky-high total could climb even further. And, much like the Sunday Night Football patterns, once that number goes up, the sharp guys buy back the Under just before kickoff.
If you’re looking to the Under, be warned: tall totals in Week 1 have led to Over results in recent seasons. Totals of 50 or more points in Week 1 have gone 5-2 Over/Under since the 2014 season. That trend makes it even more important to milk that late line movement for every half point you can get.