NFL Betting News & Match-Ups For Week 4

NFL Week 4 odds: Can Bills measure up to Patriots in battle of AFC East unbeatens?
Patrick Everson

Josh Allen has helped Buffalo to a 3-0 SU and ATS mark, but the first real test of the season awaits in Week 4. The Bills opened as 7-point home underdogs against the Patriots, who are also 3-0 (2-1 ATS).

The NFL regular season’s first month wraps up with some intriguing Week 4 matchups, including a battle of unbeatens in the AFC East. Covers checks in on that contest and three others, with insights from John Murray, director of The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (+7)

It’s no surprise at all that defending Super Bowl champion New England – despite the Antonio Brown drama – sits unbeaten through three weeks. The Patriots (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) had no trouble with the New York Jets on Sunday, building a 30-0 lead and coasting 30-14 as huge 20.5-point home favorites.

Buffalo being unbeaten is perhaps a bit of a surprise, since it opened with two straight road games – both at MetLife Stadium, where they beat the Jets and Giants. In Week 3, the Bills (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) blew all of a 14-0 halftime lead to Cincinnati, but got a late TD to win 21-17 as 5.5-point home faves.

“Buffalo is 3-0 but has done it against a super easy schedule,” Murray said. “We will find out a lot about Josh Allen and the Bills’ offense in this game. Their defense is legit.”

There weren’t enough takers on either side Sunday night to move the needle, as the line remained 7 flat.

Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints (+3)

Dallas has had little trouble through three weeks, on the field or for bettors, going 3-0 SU and ATS. The Cowboys rolled over hapless Miami 31-6 Sunday to cover as hefty 22-point home favorites.

New Orleans lost Drew Brees to a thumb injury in Week 2 and likely won’t have his services for a few more weeks. However, the Saints (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) went to Seattle as 5-point pups and exited with a 33-27 outright victory behind Teddy Bridgewater.

Brees’ absence certainly takes the luster off this Sunday night matchup, but Dallas backers were interested from the jump.

“We took money immediately on Dallas and moved to -3 (-120),” Murray said of a price adjustment on the Cowboys, noting he expects more Pokes money to come. “The books will need the Saints big in this game.”

Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers (-4.5)

Green Bay is also out of the gate 3-0 SU and has come through for bettors all three weeks, as well. The Packers took care of Denver on Sunday, going off as 7-point home favorites and claiming a 27-16 victory.

Meanwhile, Philadelphia has struggled in the early going, dropping two in a row while failing to cash in any of its three games. On Sunday, the Eagles (1-2 SU) were 4-point home faves against Detroit, trailed 20-10 at halftime and couldn’t quite get there in a 27-24 loss.

Philly also isn’t in a good spot for a short turnaround, playing Green Bay under the Thursday night lights.

“The Eagles are very banged up right now,” Murray said. “The Packers are 3-0 but weren’t overly impressive on offense today. Denver turnovers gave them some short fields to work with.”

This game also saw no early movement Sunday night.

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (-2.5)

Minnesota hopes it can bottle up some of its home success and take it on the road in Week 4. The Vikings (2-1 SU and ATS) rolled in in Weeks 1 and 3 at home, then fell in between at Green Bay. On Sunday, the Vikes discarded visiting Oakland 34-14 laying 8.5 points.

Chicago still has some Week 3 work to do, playing in the Monday nighter at Washington. The Bears (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS) have yet to look like the 12-4 SU and ATS team of last year. After an extremely lackluster Week 1 home loss to Green Bay, the Bears barely escaped Denver with a 16-14 win on a last-second 53-yard field goal, failing to cover as 3-point favorites.

“It’s a short week for the Bears, and they will come home to host the Vikings in a critical division game,” Murray said. “Can Kirk Cousins avoid turning the ball over? If he does, I think the Vikings win on the road.”

While the Bears opened -2.5, the price at that number was -120. As of Sunday night, there were no moves.

Hot & Not Report - Week 4
By Matt Blunt

If you were able to catch last week's piece you'll know that the angle of backing those winless ATS teams out on the road in Week 3 turned out to be profitable once again.

Seven different teams fit that role for Week 3, and with Chicago's outcome still pending tonight, the other six (Carolina, Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Miami, NYG, NYJ) ended up going 5-1 ATS. Only the hapless Dolphins failed to cover the number on Sunday, while three of those teams (Carolina, New Orleans, NYG) managed to pull off the outright victory as well.

Going against the Rams was a result that most oddsmakers across the country wanted to see cash, but LA was having none of it. It's hard to say if LA went out and got that game on SNF vs the Browns, or if Cleveland just remains too undisciplined for their own good. The Browns over-thought some playcalling decisions as well, and yet, they still had a 1st and goal to tie the game with under a minute left. Fading the money earners just didn't work out on Sunday night.

This week we are staying in the NFL, and while something like discussing the fact that division games are on a 4-10 O/U run so far in 2019 – keep that in mind for the Cleveland/Baltimore, New England/Buffalo, Washington/NYG, Seattle/Arizona, Minnesota/Chicago, and Cincinnati/Pittsburgh games next week – there are actually two more specific spots involving two of the seven 3-0 SU teams in this league that need to come to light. With Detroit being 2-0-1 SU there are actually eight remaining unbeaten squads, but it's two that entered 2019 as legit Super Bowl contenders that present solid betting angles. So let's get right to them.

Who's Hot

Games featuring an AFC team vs. NFC team with the home side as underdogs are a perfect 5-0 to the 'Under' in 2019

Non-conference games tend to lack the hatred something like rivalry or even conference tilts bring has there can be lingering memories from recent playoffs etc that add extra elements to those games. But unless you are one of the few teams that have met New England in the Super Bowl in recent years, AFC/NFC games tend to lack the animosity that can be associated with 'under' plays. There isn't the same type of familiarity in terms of understanding what the opposition prefers to run, and coaching staffs prefer to focus on more immediate concerns like divisional rivals because the easiest path to a playoff berth is by winning one's division.

So while you will hear thoughts about non-conference games being ones that can fly 'over' the number more often given that lack of hatred, that's not particularly been the case this year (6-8 O/U overall this year) in general. But more specifically, when the home team is catching points in these non-conference tilts, you only want to look low. Week 4 brings us only one specific spot where this run will be tested, as it does involve Patrick Mahomes and the high-powered, undefeated, Kansas City Chiefs.

KC is laying about a TD in Detroit on Sunday, and the total has already seen the vig get a few more cents added to the 'over' side of things. Both teams do own a 2-1 O/U record on the year as well, and with KC averaging 33.7 points per game and Detroit averaging 22.3 points per game offensively, just having both sides hit those averages would see an 'over' ticket cash.

However, defensively, neither side gives up more then 21.3 points per game on average, and given the specific home/road splits here, KC's defense comes in at 18 ppg allowed on the road, with Detroit clocking in at 10 ppg at home. Extremely small sample size for those numbers to be sure, but if you zoom out and look at the scenario on the whole – home underdog against a non-conference team – you can see why 'unders' in these games do tend to make a lot of sense.

First off, as a home underdog, you know you are up against it in terms of talent, skill, etc and there are certain generic strategies in that role that can/should be employed. Shortening the game by controlling time of possession and moving the sticks with the running game is one of those, and it doesn't matter who the Chiefs opponent is or where they are playing, limiting KC's time with the ball is something all 29 other teams are looking to do against KC. Detroit may not have the best running game in the league, but Stafford's dink-and-dunk approach throwing the ball plays into that as well.

Furthermore, offensively execution tends to come a bit tougher in hostile territory for these road favorites. Whether it be crowd noise, general discomfort, or the home dog defense 'rising up' to play over their heads against a better squad, KC's offense might not work as smoothly as some may think. KC might have scored 61 points in their last two games combined, but you take out the 2nd quarter, and the Chiefs just have 10 total points in all of those six other frames. They've been blanked in four of those quarters so it's not like they can't be held down as it is.

So chances are we see this total likely go higher before it goes down, but with that hook sitting there on a key number like 53 and plus-money on the 'under' to boot, it may not hurt to get at least a partial unit down on this 'under' in Week 4 and go from there.

Who's Not

Backing home favorites in the first five weeks of the season, prior to playing a road game on Thursday Night Football
(2-9 ATS and SU last three years)

Thursday Night football games continue to generally be slopfests in terms of quality of play as the short week is just tough to overcome for all involved. Maybe one day that will change and we can get rid of them all together (highly doubtful) and have weekly MNF double-headers or something instead, but until then, I'll gladly try to use an angle like this to cash.

Simply put, when teams are laying chalk at home the Sunday prior, and then have a quick turnaround WITH travel for TNF, it's those Sunday games that tend to get glossed over. Not only are home favorites in that role 2-9 against the number, but ALL NINE ATS losses have been outright losers as well. That's really quite shocking when you step back and think about it.

It's not like they are loaded with losses by two or three-point home favorites either. Last year we saw Minnesota lose to Buffalo (27-6) laying 16.5 points prior to a road TNF game, and even the great New England Patriots fell victim to this trend back in 2017 when they lost at home to Carolina (33-30) as nine-point home chalk.

And while it may feel like after last week's piece, I am picking on LA Rams fans/backers, I can assure you that I'm not. But this week, it's the undefeated Los Angeles Rams who find themselves in this dreaded role, currently laying -10.5 at home to a visiting Tampa team prior to the Rams travelling to Seattle for a divisional game on TNF in Week 5.

Considering Tampa's likely to be quite salty this week after blowing that big lead at home to the New York Giants with a rookie QB starting, it's not hard to figure the Bucs will be out to be at their best this Sunday. Offensively, they are more then capable of keeping up with LA should the game be a back-and-forth affair, and Tampa themselves know how hard it is being in the role that LA finds themselves in, as the Bucs got burned by being in that spot in Week 1 as small home chalk to the 49ers.

That Bucks loss in Week 1 started the 0-3 ATS and SU run this trend has been on just this year alone with Philly losing at home yesterday as the latest victim. So my apologies go out to Rams supporters this week for the second week in a row. You proved me wrong last week, and hopefully as the year goes on the Rams will find themselves in a favorable 'play on' role for one of these pieces, but it's taking the points or nothing with Tampa Bay for me this weekend.

By: Josh Inglis

HOLD ON TIGHT

The Arizona Cardinals have been getting crushed by opposing tight ends through three games. In total, the Cardinals have allowed 20 catches for 318 yards and four scores to the position. The player most responsible for this is safety D.J. Swearinger. The man who was unwanted in Washington has a PFF grade of 45.9 and has allowed over a 70 percent completion rate.

Up next in the plus matchup is Seattle Seahawks TE Will Dissly, who has three touchdowns on 11 catches over his last two games. With quarterback Russel Wilson proving he can sling it with the best — 706 yards passing in his past two outings — Dissly has a great chance to go Over any of his props this week.

His prop markets will open soon and we like the Overs on his reception total at less than five, receiving yards at less than 56 and will certainly be playing his anytime score prop, which will be plus money.

PRIME TIME 6-POINT TEASER

Last week we hit our three-team, 6-point, prime time teaser (+160) with three Unders. This week’s prime time games may be forcing us in the other direction.

PHI/GBY Over 39: The Philadelphia Eagles own the sixth-worst defense in points per play but have a Top-10 scoring offense which works well for this teased total. Their defense is averaging three touchdowns against some poor offenses — Washington, Atlanta and Detroit. We see Wentz and Rodgers putting up some points on Thursday.

DAL/NO Over 41: Combined, the Dallas Cowboys and the New Orleans Saints have eclipsed this total in four of their six games. Dallas is a Top-3 offense in yards per game while scoring three red-zone touchdowns a game this year.

The Saints showed they aren’t ready to roll over and die with Teddy Bridgewater under center and are still a threat to put up points on the turf in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, especially against a Dallas team who has faced the Dolphins, Redskins and Giants.

CIN/PIT Over 37.5: This one scares me the most, but ultimately this is a great matchup for points as the Cincinnati Bengals No. 3 passing offense squares off against the Pittsburgh’s second-worst passing defense. With both teams in the bottom-eight in yards per rush attempt, look for the Bengals and Steelers to settle Monday’s match through the air. Maybe even look for the special team or defensive score prop (+225)

CAPITAL NONE

We need to put this one out there while the stink of the Washington Redskins is still fresh in our olfactory senses. The hot mess that is the Redskins has been bad, but especially bad in the first quarter this year.

In their last 12 games, the team with taxation but no representation has scored a total of ...one touchdown in the opening frame. If you watched Monday Night Football, then you know that a TD isn’t happening anytime soon with that quarterback play, a short week and a divisional game on deck.

Washington Under 0.5 first-quarter touchdowns is too costly at -175 while its first-quarter team total of 3.5 is tempting, but not at -152. If you can find better odds for those bets or don’t mind the juice, take them.

We’re going to grab the first-quarter Under 7.5 (+105) as we hope the Redskins try to hide their passing game and Daniel Jones struggles early after last week’s roller coaster.

KICKING IT IN L.A.

Tampa Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston has left some things to be desired when it comes to execution. The former first-overall pick sits 25th in QBR, below Marcus Mariota and Josh Rosen.

The Bucs have scored a touchdown on just 27 percent of their red-zone trips this year — only better than the Miami Dolphins. This is made even worse by the fact that Tampa Bay is averaging the 10th most red-zone scoring attempts per game. We won’t say no to you if you want to play the Buccaneers’ first score FG (+137).

It makes sense that Jameis and his offense are tied for the lead the league in field goals attempted per game at three. The Los Angeles Rams are also averaging three three-point tries a game which makes the Over 3.5 field goals (-120) a great play, in our opinion. With two struggling offenses and a pair of defenses that are allowing the most and third-most field goal attempts a game, this is our spot for this week’s kicking prop.

SAY IT AIN’T SO, SONY

We’re going back to fading Sony Michel after cashing on his Under 83.5 rushing yards last week. Sometimes you have to stick with what’s working, or not working in Sony’s case.

The running back has still forced one missed tackle on 45 rushing attempts with 1.67 yards after contact per attempt and blue skies aren’t on the forecast for last year’s 900-plus yard runner. Michel saw just 22 percent of the offensive snaps last week in a nothing game against the Jets.

With Rex Burkhead getting more action (74 percent) and facing a Buffalo Bills rushing defense that is allowing just 88 rushing yards a game, we’re going back-to-back weeks on the Michel’s Under and will take it as low as 55 yards.

Bet Now/Bet Later NFL Week 4 odds: If you're counting on the Cowboys to cover, do it now
Jason Logan

You have America's Team taking an undefeated record to New Orleans to face a backup QB on Sunday Night Football. Books are bracing for Cowboys money.

Being a successful sports bettor is not about betting on the best team, but betting the best number. Scoring the optimal odds for your wager can sometimes be a race to the window – or your mobile – to get the spread or total you want before it changes. Or, sometimes it’s a waiting game until just before kickoff, projecting how the public players will manipulate the numbers.

Senior Industry Analyst Jason Logan gives you a heads-up on the best “Bet Now/Bet Later” games on the NFL board each week.

Week 4 marks the quarter turn of the schedule, which means teams suffering from slow starts to 2019 are beginning to panic and those teams exceeding expectations are attempting to ride that early-season momentum. How the betting markets react to those results will shape the line movement heading into kickoff, so let’s try to stay ahead of the curve.

SPREAD TO BET NOW: DALLAS COWBOYS (-2.5) AT NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

I’ll be the first to tell you, Cowboys fans can be a bit much. And I am one. Dallas is 3-0 heading to the Big Easy on Sunday night, with a belly full of fudgy facts and figures after eating up the Giants, Redskins and Dolphins.

America’s Team opened around a field-goal favorite for this primetime game, and early play from the wiseguys has slimmed that spread as low as -2.5 at some select books. If you can get Dallas under a field goal, do it now because Dallas fans will be doubling down come Sunday evening.

Books have already seen a large amount of public play on the Cowboys and predict the most popular team in football to draw lopsided money versus a Saints team playing without star QB Drew Brees. Even though backup Teddy Bridgewater was solid in a win at Seattle, this spread will likely creep to Dallas -3.5 by the time the late-afternoon games wrap.

If you’re among the masses with money to get down on Dallas, get it in now rather than later.

SPREAD TO BET LATER: KANSAS CITY CHIEFS AT DETROIT LIONS (+6)

If you fear that you missed the boat on the early line movement for this non-conference clash, you’ll likely get a second shot later in the week. Kansas City opened as a 6-point road favorite in the Motor City and early play on the Chiefs pumped this to a full touchdown before sharp buyback on the Lions returned the spread to the opener.

I can see why getting the home side at a full seven points is appealing to the pros. Kansas City is playing its third road game in four weeks and is ripe for a letdown after a physical win over the Ravens at home in Week 3. Detroit is undefeated at 2-0-1 SU and would be a perfect 3-0 if not for a huge fourth-quarter collapse against Arizona in Week 1.

The public, however, will be blinded by the Chiefs’ undefeated mark and as we get closer to Sunday, money will jump on K.C. – especially seeing it under a touchdown. If you like the Lions, wait it out. You’ll likely see the +6.5 and +7 again before the whistle blows.

TOTAL TO BET NOW: OVER 46 CAROLINA AT HOUSTON

This total is already starting to tick up at some sportsbooks, with the early money putting its faith in Carolina backup Kyle Allen. The second-year QB was fantastic in place of the injured Cam Newton in Week 3, so much so that it appears the franchise is in no rush to return its star player. And after the way Newton performed in the first two weeks, can you blame the Panthers?

Carolina’s offense is set up for Allen to succeed. He has a savvy TE in Greg Olsen to act as safety blanket, a dynamic RB in Christian McCaffery to keep opposing pass rushers guessing and serve as a vital checkdown, and two speedsters in D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel to stretch the field and open up space underneath. Allen may have to use those deep-strike targets more to keep pace in Week 4.

The Texans can put up points in a hurry. Take out that ho-hum effort versus Jacksonville in Week 2, and Houston is putting up almost 400 yards per game. This is one of the best receiving corps in the league (something I’ve said every week) and Deshaun Watson is really finding him form, with 11.6 yards per completion, only one interception, and sitting fifth in Total QBR.

Given the early opinion on this total and with this game being played on the fast turf track inside NRG Stadium (Interesting/Meaningless trend: Carolina 22-5 Over/Under in last 27 games on turf), the Over would be best bet at 46 now – if you’re into that sort of thing.

TOTAL TO BET LATER: OVER 43.5 CINCINNATI AT PITTSBURGH

In rare air for a primetime matchup, those leaning towards the Over for Monday Night Football’s AFC North war between Cincinnati and Pittsburgh may want to wait it out. Most weeks, a night game means blind backing for the Over from the public, but this rivalry isn’t selling the points like it should.

The Steelers are without QB Ben Roethlisberger and looking to backup Mason Rudolph to keep them competitive. The reviews are still out on the former Oklahoma State gunslinger, but he did show flashes of big-play potential on both TD strikes last Sunday and Pittsburgh put up 20 points despite having the football for less than 24 minutes in Week 3.

The Steelers defense is the real issue. Pittsburgh has allowed 28.3 points per game through the first three weeks and has been torched for almost 303 passing yards an outing (second most in the NFL). The Steelers have allowed 15 passing plays of 20 or more yards in those contests and take on the Bengals' up-tempo attack that thrives on the big plays (14 passing plays of 20-plus).

Cincinnati got off to a slow start at Buffalo in Week 3 but snapped out of it just in time to score 17 second-half points and cover the +6 in the loss. There’s a lot of potential for this Bengals offense – something that can’t be said for the defense. Between missed tackles and giving up 6.4 yards per play, Cincy sits 27th in points allowed at 27.7 per game. With two piss-poor defenses, the prospect for points, and lots of them, is great.

This one goes against the traditional MNF grain (as well as the Under trend in this divisional rivalry: 2-5 O/U last seven meetings), but wait to see if this continues to drop (fell from as high as 44 to as low as 43 at some spots) and be the Over later in the Week 4 finale.

Best spot bets for the NFL Week 4 odds: Life is a highway for the road-weary Chiefs
Jason Logan

The Chiefs find themselves back in the visitors locker room for the third time in the first four weeks of the season when they visit the Lions in Detroit this Sunday.

In the daily battle against the big bad bookies, sports bettors have an arsenal of weapons at their disposal – some more effective than others.

One of the most popular methods of getting a leg up on the sportsbooks is situational handicapping: factoring in unique situations for the teams involved. Some of the more common situational plays – or spot bets – are “letdowns”, “lookaheads”, and “schedule” spots.

Senior Industry Analyst Jason Logan combs through the Week 4 schedule and highlights the best opportunities for spot bettors to take advantage of the NFL odds.

LETDOWN SPOT: WASHINGTON REDSKINS AT NEW YORK GIANTS (-3, 49)

This letdown spot started setting the table back on April 25. That was Day 1 of the 2019 NFL Draft, on which the Giants selected Duke QB Daniel Jones with the sixth-overall pick. It was a baffling pick that was instantly criticized and continued to be so until Jones showed flashes of brilliance in the preseason.

New York finally pulled the plug on Eli Manning’s time as the starter versus the Buccaneers in Week 3, turning the keys to the franchise over to the 22-year-old rookie. And Jones stepped up, passing for two touchdowns and running in two more with RB Saquon Barkley on the sideline with an ankle sprain. The Giants got the win thanks to a botched last-second field goal attempt from Tampa Bay, and the G-Men’s front office breathed a collective sigh of relief. They were right and everybody else was wrong. Suck it.

That thrilling win (and “I told you so!” moment) sets up New York for a letdown spot in Week 4, hosting the rival Redskins as a 3-point favorite. As mentioned, Jones doesn’t have Barkley to draw the eye of the defense and was sacked five times in the squeaker at Tampa last Sunday. The Redskins' rotten defense has been roughed up, but they’ve also been on the field an average of 33:08 minutes per game (fourth most) thanks to turnovers from the offense. If the stop unit can force some turnovers of its own versus a rookie QB, the Giants could fall for this longgggggggg-running letdown.

LOOKAHEAD SPOT: OAKLAND RAIDERS AT INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-7, 45)

Even the pros get caught fantasizing. Given their circumstances entering the season (you know? Their franchise QB abruptly packing it in), a 2-1 start to the 2019 schedule has to have the Colts feeling good about their chances in the AFC South. And hell, if not for Adam Vinatieri finally showing cracks in his once-unflappable leg, Indianapolis could be 3-0 in the post-Andrew Luck era.

The Colts have great shot at jumping to 3-1 with the road-rashed Raiders coming to town in Week 4. Oakland (which is on a crazy 49-day gap between home games) lost at Minnesota in an early 1 p.m. ET starts in Week 3 and travels to London, England for Week 5 (vs. Chicago) after this 1 p.m. ET game in Indy Sunday. Shouldn’t be too much trouble for the red-hot Colts, right?

Indianapolis could get caught looking past the tarnished Silver and Black and ahead to Week 5 when they travel to dreaded Arrowhead Stadium to face the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday Night Football. There are also key injuries on both sides of the ball for the Colts heading into this Sunday’s game, with top WR T.Y. Hilton dealing with a nagging quadriceps injury, safety Malik Hooker out of action (knee), and LB Darius Leonard in concussion protocol.

SCHEDULE SPOT: KANSAS CITY CHIEFS AT DETROIT LIONS (+6.5, 54)

The Chiefs find themselves back in the visitors locker room for the third time in the first four weeks of the season when they take on the "undefeated" Lions in Detroit this Sunday. Kansas City opened 2019 with back-to-back road games in Jacksonville and Oakland before a grueling home opener against Baltimore in Week 3.

Not only does a road heavy schedule weigh on players and staff, but this is the Chiefs. The AFC’s No. 1 seed from a season ago was able to catch plenty of teams off guard at the start of 2018 campaign (which led to a perfect 7-0 ATS mark through the first seven games), but now have a huge target on its back as teams get up to play the conference’s elite.

Kansas City’s offense also limps into Week 4 with WR Tyreek Hill out (collarbone), LT Eric Fisher sidelined (hernia), and running backs LeSean McCoy and Damien Williams listed as day-to-day with their respective ailments. The rigors of the road could compound those issues come Sunday, especially with K.C. giving a near touchdown as the visitor.

Vegas Money Moves - Week 4
September 27, 2019
By Micah Roberts

Las Vegas sportsbooks got Week 4 of the NFL season started on a high note with the Philadelphia Eagles earning a 31-27 road win at Green Bay (-3.5, 45.5) on Thursday night.

“We had a great night with the Eagles winning,” CG Technology sportsbook director Tony DiTomasso said. “It was one of our better games of the year.”

The isolated night games have been big trouble traditionally for the books, evident last Sunday when the Rams defeated the Browns 20-13 in the Week 3.

Let’s take a closer look at some of the games that have been receiving the most attention in Week 4.

“It’s been slow so far this week, not a lot of things happening so far,” DiTomasso said Friday afternoon. “We had a $30,000 bet on the Chiefs laying -6.5, but it wasn’t a wise guy.

The Chiefs opened as six-point road favorites at Detroit and this matchup has the highest total of the week at 54.5. The Chiefs have gone 8-2-1 against the spread in their last 11 road games and they’ve gone 'over' the total in 16 of their last 21 games outside of Arrowhead.

As expected, the Chiefs-Over combination will be an extremely popular two-team parlay and two-team teaser this week.

“We also had a bet on the Giants at -3 (-105) against the Redskins,” DiTomasso said.

People are believing in rookie quarterback Daniel Jones in his home debut after he made a sensational first impression leading the Giants to a 32-31 road win at Tampa Bay last week.

Caesars Palace sportsbook director Jeff Davis says sharp action at his books have taken the Giants, Saints (they took +3, it’s +2.5 now) and Seahawks.

The Seahawks have moved from -4 up to the dead number of -5.5 so it won’t take much to push this game to -6. The Seahawks come off an embarrassing home loss to the Saints who were playing without QB Drew Brees.

Make a note that the underdog has gone 7-0-1 ATS in the last eight meetings of this NFC West rivalry.

Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook VP Jay Kornegay says their top sharp plays this week are the Giants, Raiders (+6.5 at Colts), and Buccaneers (+9.5 at Rams).

“The wise guys are also on the Vikings this week,” DiTomasso said.

The Vikings were getting +2.5 at Chicago and it’s down to +1.5 as of Friday afternoon.

“The top parlay games of the week in ticket counts are the Chiefs, Patriots, Cowboys and Ravens,” DiTomasso said. “We also took a $10,000 bet on the Patriots to make us about $25,000 high on them so far.”

Caesars’ Davis says their top public parlay plays are the Patriots, Chiefs and Ravens as well. Kornegay says the Chiefs, Patriots and Cowboys would be their worst case 3-team parlay cashing.

The Chiefs are one of three teams to be a perfect 3-0 against-the-spread so far along with the Cowboys and Rams, so they figure to be popular choices, but the Ravens have gone just 1-2 ATS meaning that the public love for the Ravens is more about hating the Browns.

“The public has turned quickly on the Browns,” DiTomasso said. “That fourth down and nine running play on Monday night for all to see gave a bad impression for a lot of people I think.”

The 1-2 Browns came into the season with loads of hype and became one of the biggest Super Bowl risks for the sportsbooks, but the SuperBook has circled back past their original opening 20-to-1 odds to win number.

As of Monday, JK and his staff have pushed the Browns up to 60-to-1 to hoist the SB54 Trophy in Miami next February.

Roberts is a former Las Vegas sports book director that has been covering the sports betting industry for the last 15 years

Total Talk - Week 4
September 28, 2019
By Joe Williams

It's time for Week 4 in the National Football League, and we're hitting the quarter pole already. Where has the time gone? We're getting a great idea of who the contenders and pretenders are, especially in terms of effectiveness on offense and defense.

2019 TOTAL RESULTS - GAME & HALVES

Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half

Week 3 10-6 9-7 8-7-1

Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Year-to-Date 20-28 19-28-1 26-21-1

The public scored big in Week 3, sinking books with a 10-6 over record. It was a nice rebound for the masses after watching Joey Public get killed in Week 2, with the under hitting in 13 of 16 outings. Through 48 games, the under sits at 28-20 (41%).

Savvy bettors playing the halves noticed a scoring spike in the first 30 minutes as the 'over' went 9-7 in the first-half last weekend. The high side went 8-7-1 in the second-half and that's been a solid lean overall (26-21-1) for 'over' bettors chasing points this season.

Division Bell

We had just two divisional battles in Week 3, and the total results split. The New York Jets-New England Patriots (43) game likely should've gone under, but with 21 seconds left in the third quarter the Jets came up with a fumble recovery in the end zone for a touchdown. Then, they had a pick-six of 61 yards with 6:23 to go in the game to flip the result. The Jets scored zero points, but the Patriots backup on offense coughed up 14 points, prompting QB Tom Brady to be re-inserted into the game after backup Jarrett Stidham relieved him.

DIVISIONAL GAME RESULTS WEEK 3
Tennessee at Jacksonville Under (38) Jacksonville 20, Tennessee 7
N.Y. Jets at New England Over (43) New England 30, N.Y. Jets 14

Line Moves and Public Leans
Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 4 based off our VI Odds as of Saturday morning.

Washington at N.Y. Giants: 46 to 48 ½
Seattle at Arizona: 48 to 46
Dallas at New Orleans: 45 to 47
Carolina at Houston: 46 to 47 ½
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh: 43 ½ to 45
Cleveland at Baltimore: 46 ½ to 45
New England at Buffalo: 44 to 42 ½
Oakland at Indianapolis: 44 to 45 ½

Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 4 per the betting trend percentages on the VI Matchup index as of Saturday morning.

Minnesota at Chicago: Under 88%
New England at Buffalo: Under 82%
Washington at N.Y. Giants: Over 81%
Dallas at New Orleans: Over 76%
Carolina at Houston: Over 70%
Seattle at Arizona: Over 69%

There is also a heavy lean on for the 'over' (64 percent) in the Cincinnati-Pittsburgh matchup on Monday Night Football, and heavy lean on the 'under' in Tennessee-Atlanta (66 percent) battle on Sunday.
Handicapping Week 4

WEEK 3 TOTAL RESULTS
Year Over/Under

Divisional matchups 1-1

NFC vs. NFC 5-0
AFC vs. AFC 1-2
AFC vs. NFC 3-3

Week 4 is kicked off with a high-scoring Thursday night battle, as the Philadelphia-Green Bay matchup went 'over'. Through 11 primetime battles the 'under' is now 8-3, but the 'over' has connected in the last two games played at night.

Taking a look at the divisional battles for Week 4:

Cleveland at Baltimore: The Browns and Ravens square off in the first divisional game for both sides. The Browns entered the season with a lot of hype due to massive additions on offense. However, the new-look offense has struggled to gain any momentum through the early going. They're averaging just 16.3 points per game through three contests, although they did manage 23 points in their only road game, a win against the Jets on Monday Night Football back in Week 2. Quarterback Baker Mayfield has passed for more touchdowns in his short career on the road, and he's been sacked less too. In eight road starts under Mayfield, the Browns are averaging 24.3 PPG.

The Ravens are having no such problems on offense, averaging 36.7 points per game to rank No. 1 in the NFL. They're also No. 1 in total yards per game (511.7) and No. 1 in rushing yards (216.7) per contest. They're also No. 7 in passing yards per outing, posting 295.0 yards per game through the air. Defensively, they have only been so-so, coughing up 350.7 total yards per game, giving up 290.3 passing yards to check in 26th. Most of that is skewed, however, as teams have passed frequently to get back into the game. Baltimore has shut down the run, allowing just 60.3 rushing yards per game to check in second in the NFL. The under has hit in four of the past five in this series, and six of the past eight in Charm City.

Other important divisional games with important trends to note:

Washington at N.Y. Giants: The Redskins offense has been a train wreck, posting 336.3 total yards per game to rank 23rd in the NFL, and they're putting up a dismal 48.0 yards per game on the ground to check in 30th. That's not good. They're still managed to post 21.0 PPG, good for 21st in the NFL. Defensively, the 'Skins have been a wreck, as well, ranking 25th with 402.7 yards per game, and they're yielding 31.3 PPG, second-worst in the NFL. Make a note that Washington is the only team to see the over cash in all three of its games.

The Giants gave rookie QB Daniel Jones his first NFL start and it went well. Granted, if the Bucs had a kicker, the G-Men and their rookie go home with a loss in Tampa last week. However, the kicker shanked it, and 'Danny Dimes' is being hailed as the second coming for Big Blue. He passed for 336 yards and two touchdowns while running for 28 yards and a pair of scores. It will be interesting to see what the rookie does in his first home start, and his first game against a divisional opponent. However, while Jones was the good news from last week's road win, the bad news is RB Saquon Barkley (ankle) is expected to miss several weeks due to a high-ankle sprain. The Giants defense is ranked 31st in total yards (460.3) and that combined with Washington's unit is one of the main reasons this total has been pushed up.

Minnesota at Chicago: The trends all point to the 'under' for both the Vikings and the Bears. the under has cashed in 23 of the past 30 divisional battles for the Vikings, while hitting in four of the past five against winning teams and four straight on the road. The Bears have hit the under is four straight divisional battles, while cashing in four straight at home. They're also 6-2 in the past eight at home agaisnt teams with a winning road mark.

Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky finally showed a little consistency, hooking up with WR Taylor Gabriel (concussion) for three touchdowns in the second quarter alone in Week 2 at Washington. However, Gabriel was lost to a concussion, and remains in the protocol. They're still 29th in total yards (275.0), 29th in passing yards (178.7) and 26th in the league in points scored (16.7). Defensively the Bears have locked it down, giving up just 13.0 PPG to rank second in the league, and they're just fifth in rushing yards allowed (68.7). Will the unders continue?

Seattle at Arizona: The 'over' has connected in five straight divisional games for the Seahawks, and they're fairly consistent overall on offense .They're ninth in total yards (390.3), while going 10th in passing yards (280.0) and points scored (25.3). The over has hit in each of the past two for the Seahawks, including a 28-26 win at Pittsburgh in their only road trip of the season so far.

Cardinals QB Kyler Murray had some growing pains, and head coach Kliff Kingsbury's offense isn't the up-tempo, high-scoring juggernaut that was expected. In fact, they're 26th in the NFL with 328.0 total yards per game, while middle of the road in passing (243.7), ranking 15th. The 'over' is 2-0 in their two home games so far, averaging 23.5 PPG while yielding 32.5 PPG. The last three meetings from the desert between this pair have watched the 'under' go 3-0.

Heavy Expectations

There are four games listed with spreads of a touchdown or greater for Week 4, with one road team listed as a double-digit favorite. The totals are ranging from 42 to 54 in these contests and cashing a total could come down to which teams lay off the gas in the second-half.

L.A. Chargers at Miami (1:00 p.m. ET): The Chargers look to add to the woes of the Dolphins. Miami was a little more competitive at Dallas last week, if you count 31-6 as more competitive. That's how bad things have been for the Dolphins. They have managed a total of 16 points, hitting the under in their past two. The Chargers have also struggled a bit on offense, averaging 20.0 PPG while giving up just 21.3 PPG. You can expect another lopsided score, as they're more than a two-touchdown favorite in South Florida. Second-half bettors or Live Betting enthusiasts might want to jump in on the final 30 minutes of this matchup with the Chargers averaging 3.3 PPG in the final two quarters of the season while Miami is at 0 PPG.

New England at Buffalo (1:00 p.m. ET): The defending champs hit the road for Western New York, a place they have fared very well over the years. However, they're facing a new-look Bills team which enters the game with an identical 3-0 record and huge expectations these days. These aren't the same Bills which have been pushed around by the Pats in the past.

The Patriots might have their most powerful offense in years, though, and that's a scary thing. They're averaging 35.3 PPG through three outings, including a 43-0 win on the road in Week 2 in their only road outing, albeit against the sorry Dolphins. New England is averaging 311.3 passing yards to rank second, and they're second in the NFL behind the Ravens in scoring. While all of that is good for the over, the defense has been on fire. They're No. 1 in the NFL in total yards (199.0), passing yards (162.3), rushing yards (36.7) and points allowed (5.7). The under has cashed in seven of the past nine inside the division for the Pats, while going 5-2 in the past seven meetings in this series.

Kansas City at Detroit (1:00 p.m. ET): The unbeaten Lions (2-0-1 SU) have hit the over in two of their three games, both on the road, while grinding out a 13-10 win and under in their only previous home game against the Chargers in Week 2. The offense has been on fire for the Chiefs, as expected, going for 28 or more points in all three games, including 34.0 PPG in their two road contests so far. These Lions have been surprisingly effective on defense, but this will obviously be their biggest test of the season. As far as trends go, Kansas City has watched the 'over' go 8-2 in their last 10 road matchups. However, Detroit is on a 6-0 'under' run its last six at Ford Field.

Tampa Bay at L.A. Rams (4:05 p.m. ET): The Bucs could easily be going into this game at 2-1, but a missed kick at the buzzer meant a tough loss. They were able to score 31 points, though, the most of the season and their first 'over'. The Rams struggled in Cleveland on SNF despite the fact the Browns were missing their entire secondary. The Bucs have yielded 25.7 PPG through their three games, and that makes the 'over' rather attractive in this one. The Rams have racked up 25.7 PPG on offense, while the defense has allowed just 11.0 PPG in the past two after a 30-27 win in Week 1.

Under the Lights

Dallas at New Orleans (8:20 p.m. ET - Sun.): In the Sunday Night Football game, the Cowboys and Saints promised to be a high-flying affair. QB Drew Brees went down, and the offense was expected to struggle. However, the Saints adjusted quickly in Seattle last week, posting a 33-27 win with QB Teddy Bridgewater leading the charge. The 'over' is 5-0 in the past five for Dallas against NFC foes, but the under is 5-1 in the past six on the road against teams with a winning home record. The under is 8-2 in the past 10 against NFC foes for the Saints, and 10-3-1 in the past 14 at home against teams with a winning home mark.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (8:15 p.m. ET - Mon.): The Monday Night Football game this week is a bit of a stinker, as two 0-3 teams face off. The Bengals have really missed WR A.J. Green, as the offense has averaged just 18.0 PPG, while hitting the 'under' in each of their two road games this season. The Steelers have struggled mightily on both sides of the ball, and they're figuring out their identity with QB Ben Roethlisberger (elbow) done for the season, so QB Mason Rudolph gets his feet wet. Pittsburgh is averaging 16.3 PPG through three games, hitting the 'under' twice in three tries. With 'Big Ben' under center last season, Pittsburgh put up some crooked numbers in night games as it averaged 32.3 PPG and the 'over' went 3-1 in those games.
Fearless Predictions
I took a bit of a beating again in Week 3, as the net loss was (-$220). The Rams-Browns game ruined what would've been a nice teaser win. That's (-$660) for the season, too. We'll look to improve heading into Week 4. As CD (see below) would say, always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Jacksonville-Denver 37 ½
Best Under: Seattle-Arizona 48
Best First-Half Over: L.A. Chargers-Miami 22 ½

Three-Team Total Teaser (+7, +135)
Over 30 ½ Jacksonville at Denver
Over 43 Tampa Bay at L.A. Rams
Over 40 Dallas at New Orleans

CD's Best Bets
Unfortunately for Chris David, he posted his second straight 1-2 week in his "Best Bet" selections on the "Bet And Collect" podcast last week and he now sits at 5-4 on the season.

For this week's Podcast, he offers up his opinion on every game with Kevin Rogers plus he provides his top selections on the below games:

Tennessee at Atlanta
Minnesota at Chicago
Cleveland at Baltimore

Top six picks for Week 4 in Westgate Super Contest:

6) Texans -4.5 (752)

5) Saints +2.5 (812)

4) Cowboys -2.5 (845)

3) Vikings +1.5 (861)

2) Patriots -7 (930)

1) Chiefs -6.5 (1,463)

Sunday Blitz - Week 4
Kevin Rogers

GAMES TO WATCH

Browns at Ravens (-6 ½, 45) – 1:00 PM EST

The AFC North race was expected to include three teams fighting it out for the top spot, but the Steelers are basically done at 0-3 and quarterback Ben Roethlisberger out for the season. The Browns (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) had elevated expectations with several key additions in the offseason, but Cleveland has stumbled with home losses to the Titans and Rams. Cleveland’s offense has produced 13 points in each of its two losses, while quarterback Baker Mayfield was limited to 195 yards in last Sunday’s defeat to Los Angeles.

The Ravens (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) are by no means running away with the division, but Baltimore can put itself in a great position with a victory on Sunday. After blowing out the hapless Dolphins in Week 1, the Ravens failed to cover as double-digit favorites in a home win over the Cardinals to improve to 2-0. However, Baltimore lost to Kansas City at Arrowhead Stadium for the second consecutive season as the Chiefs held off the Ravens, 33-28 as 4 ½-point favorites. Mark Ingram rushed for three touchdowns, but Baltimore yielded over 500 yards of offense to Kansas City as the Ravens suffered their first underdog loss with Lamar Jackson starting at quarterback in four tries.

Last season, these division rivals played to a pair of games decided by a total of five points. Cleveland held off Baltimore as three-point home underdogs, 12-9 in overtime, while the Ravens edged the Browns in the season finale, 26-24 as seven-point favorites. Baltimore has won six of the past seven matchups with Cleveland since 2015, as the Ravens had covered five straight meetings before Cleveland cashed twice in 2018.

Best Bet: Ravens 21, Browns 17

Patriots (-7, 41 ½) at Bills – 1:00 PM EST

It’s no surprise that New England (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) has started with an unblemished mark through three weeks. The Patriots cruised past the Steelers and Dolphins in the first two weeks, while yielded a total of three points. New England jumped out to a commanding 30-0 lead last Sunday against the banged-up Jets, but New York picked up the backdoor cover by scoring a special teams and defensive touchdown. The Pats failed to cash as hefty 20 ½-point favorites, but New England limited New York to a shade over 100 yards of offense to grab their 18th consecutive victory at Gillette Stadium.

The Bills (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) were expected to improve this season, but not many believed this team would be undefeated towards the end of September. Buffalo has been carried by its defense so far as the Bills swept the New York squads at Met Life Stadium the first two weeks of the season, while edging the Bengals, 21-17 in Week 3. Buffalo failed to cover for the first time this season as 5 ½-point favorites, but veteran Frank Gore found the end zone in the final two minutes of regulation to lift the Bills to a 3-0 start, as the team rushed for 175 yards against Cincinnati.

This series has been all Patriots over the years as New England has won 28 of the last 31 meetings. That is not a misprint, as two of those wins by the Bills came with Patriots’ star quarterback Tom Brady suspended in one game and playing a handful of series in a meaningless Week 17 contest in 2014. New England is riding a seven-game winning streak at New Era Field as five of those victories by the Patriots have come by 10 points or more in this stretch.

Best Bet: Patriots 27, Bills 17

Vikings at Bears (-1 ½, 38) – 4:25 PM EST

Following Green Bay’s loss to Philadelphia on Thursday night, the winner of Sunday’s contest at Soldier Field will be tied for first place with the Packers atop the NFC North. The Vikings (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) rebounded from a five-point defeat at Green Bay in Week 2 to pound the Raiders last Sunday, 34-14 to easily cash as 8 ½-point favorites. Minnesota jumped out to a 21-0 lead and never looked back as the Vikings rushed for 211 yards, including 110 yards and a touchdown from Dalvin Cook.

The Bears (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) are back at home following a pair of road victories over the Broncos and Redskins, who enter Week 4 with a combined record of 0-6. Following the close-shave win at Denver in Week 2, Chicago cruised past Washington last Monday night, 31-15 to cash as five-point favorites for its first cover of the season. Quarterback Mitchell Trubisky finally put together a solid performance with three touchdown passes, while the mighty Bears’ defense created five takeaways as Chicago has allowed 39 points in three games.

Chicago swept Minnesota last season for the first time since 2011 as the Bears have covered four consecutive meetings with the Vikings. The Bears held off the Vikings, 25-20 at Soldier Field to barely hit the OVER of 44 thanks to 28 points by the two teams in the fourth quarter. Chicago dominated Minnesota in the season finale, 24-10 as six-point road underdogs, marking the first road win for the Bears in Minneapolis since 2011.

Best Bet: Vikings 19, Bears 16

BEST TOTAL PLAY

OVER 47 ½ - Panthers at Texans

The Panthers’ offense exploded in last Sunday’s 38-20 victory against the Cardinals as Kyle Allen will make his second consecutive start at quarterback. Carolina visits Houston as the Texans rallied past the Chargers last Sunday by outscoring Los Angeles, 20-3 in the second half. Houston has hit the UNDER in two straight games, but the Texans are 6-1 to the OVER since 2016 off a road victory. Carolina is 4-1 to the OVER since 2017 also off an away win as this total has jumped from 46 to 47 ½.

TRAP OF THE WEEK

The Titans looked like world beaters in a Week 1 rout of the Browns, but Tennessee has gone backwards the last two weeks by losing to Indianapolis and Jacksonville. The Falcons have surprisingly lost seven consecutive home games to AFC opponents, while going 3-7 ATS in their last 10 opportunities as a favorite. Tennessee has not been impressive offensively in the last two weeks, but the Titans have fared well in the underdog role since Mike Vrabel took over as head coach by going 7-4 ATS, while they are 3 ½-point ‘dogs on Sunday.

BIGGEST LINE MOVE

The Seahawks opened as four-point road favorites at Arizona when the Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas released the numbers last Sunday. Seattle has moved up to 5 ½-point favorites as the Seahawks have gone 5-0-1 in the past six visits to Glendale. The Cardinals covered last season in both meetings against the Seahawks, as Arizona owns a 2-0 ATS record in the underdog role in 2019.

BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW

Only two teams have not covered a game this season as they meet in Miami on Sunday. The Chargers own an 0-2-1 ATS mark, while the Dolphins are 0-3 ATS and are listed as a double-digit underdog for the third straight week. In fact, Miami is 0-6 ATS in its past six regular season games with its last cover coming in the “Miami Miracle” against New England last December in a 34-33 win as a 9 ½-point underdog.