Betting news, trends, odds and predictions for from various handicappers and websites for Wednesday 10/2/19
Rams (3-1) @ Seattle (3-1)— Rams turned ball over seven times (-5) in their last two games; they got shredded for 55 points in home loss to Bucs LW- Tampa Bay converted 8-13 3rd down plays. Under McVay, LA is 4-3 ATS coming off a loss, 3-1 as road underdogs, 4-2 in NFC West road games. Seahawks are off to 3-1 start, despite trailing three of the four games at halftime; their foes converted only 9 of last 31 third down plays. Seattle is 4-9-1 ATS in last 14 games as a home favorite; their last three games were all against rookie or backup QB’s. Rams won last three series games, scoring 42-33-36 points; they won three of last four visits to Seattle.
Ravens (2-2) @ Steelers (1-3)— Baltimore allowed 1,033 yards, 73 points in losing its last two games; in their last three games, Ravens allowed 7.7/7.9/10.5 yards/pass attempt- they’re 5-10-1 ATS in last 16 games as a road underdog. Baltimore has run ball for 205.8 ypg; three of their four games went over. Pittsburgh had little resistance in its win Monday night; Steelers are 7-9 ATS in last 16 games as a home favorite. Pitt still hasn’t run the ball for more than 81 yards in a game this year; they’ve converted only 12-44 third down plays, but haven’t allowed a first half TD in their last two games. Steelers won four of last five series games, but Ravens are 3-2 in last five visits to Steel City.
Bears (3-1) vs Raiders (2-2) (@ London)— Oakland traded LB Kahlil Mack to the Bears last summer; this is their first meeting since. Bears’ backup QB Daniel has been in NFL for 10 years, but this will be only his 5th NFL start (2-2)- he started two games LY. Chicago won its last three games, outscoring foes 44-6 in first half; they’re +7 in turnovers in those games. Under is 3-1 in Chicago games. Oakland split its first four games, scoring 10-14 in losses, 24-31 in wins- Raiders allowed 28-34-24 points in last three games. This is Oakland’s third straight road game, albeit a neutral site; Raiders are 9-17-2 ATS in last 28 games as a dog. Teams split 14 meetings overall.
Cardinals (0-3-1) @ Bengals (0-4)— How are the Bengals favored over anyone located south of Saskatchewan? Cincy is 0-4, scoring six TD’s on 45 drives, with 16 sacks allowed, 19 3/outs, and a -5 turnover ratio- they were outscored 48-13 in first half of their last three games. Brngals are 4-8 ATS in last dozen games as a home favorite. Cardinals lost their last three games, and were down 24-6 in the game they tied; Redbirds are 5-3-1 ATS in last nine games as a road underdog. Murray has been sacked 20 times in his first four games. Arizona won three of last four series games, but lost six of seven visits here, wth last one in ’11- their last win in Cincy was in ‘07.
Jaguars (2-2) @ Panthers (2-2)— Battle of backup QB’s here. Jaguars split their two road games, which were decided by total of 3 points- they’re 10-8-1 ATS in last 19 games as a road underdog. Jax ran ball for 269 yards in Denver LW; they’ve converted only 9 of last 38 third down plays, but are 3-0 ATS in Minshew’s starts. Carolina is 2-0 SU with Allen at QB; they’re 8-11 ATS in last 19 games as a home favorite. Road team won all four Carolina games; they’ve turned ball over eight times in four games (-1). Teams split six meetings, with home side 4-2 in those games; Jaguars lost two of three visits here, with all three games decided by six or fewer points.
Vikings (2-2) @ Giants (2-2)— Vikings are 0-2 on road, scoring 16-6 points, turning ball over six times (-4); they ran ball for 193.7 yards/game in Weeks 1-3, but were held to 40 YR in Chicago LW. Minnesota is 10-6 ATS in last 16 games as a road favorite. Giants are 2-0 with rookie QB Jones starting, scoring 32-24 points; they covered once in their last seven games as a home underdog. Big Blue was 5-23 on 3rd down in Weeks 1-2; they’re 14-26 in Jones’ two starts. Minnesota won six of last eight series games, last five of which were decided by 16+ points. Vikings won four of last six visits here; last one was in 2013.
Patriots (4-0) @ Redskins (0-4)— Over last 20 years. favorites are 5-2 ATS in Week 5 games if an unbeaten team plays a winless team. Patriots won last three series games by 45-7-17 points; they won 34-27 in last visit here, back in 2011. New England has been awesome so far, allowing one TD on 48 drives; three of their four wins are by 16+ points. NE has eight takeaways in two road wins (+6); they’re 4-6 ATS in last ten games as a road favorite. Redskins are overmatched here; their QB’s are awful- Skins scored 3 points LW vs a Giant defense that allowed 31.3 ppg in Weeks 1-3. Washington was outscored 45-6 in first half of its last two games.
Jets (0-3) @ Eagles (2-2)— Darnold (mono) is a ??? here; his conditioning can’t be good. Jets lost eight of last ten post-bye games (3-7 ATS); they started three different QB’s in their losses this year- Falk likely gets his 2nd NFL start here. Jets are 7-12-2 ATS in last 21 games as a road dog, 1-0 this year. Eagles split their first four games, all decided by 7 or fewer points; they’re 2-8 ATS in last ten games as a home favorite. Three of their four games went over the total. Eagles have converted 32-57 third down plays this year. Philly won last 10 series games by average score of 27-17; Jets lost last five trips here, with last one in 2011.
Buccaneers (2-2) @ Saints (3-1)— Tampa Bay had 28 points at halftime in each of its last two games; they gained 499-464 TY the last two weeks, averaging 8.7 yards/pass attempt in both games, but Bucs have also allowed 31+ points in three games this year. TB was outscored 75-50 in 2nd half of games so far, but Arians is helping Winston thrive at QB. Saints are 2-0 in Bridgewater’s starts, they held Dallas to 45 YR LW after Cowboys had run for 179 yards/game in Weeks 1-3. Since 2014, NO is 12-21-1 ATS as a home favorite. Teams split last eight series games, splitting last four games in each stadium.
Falcons (1-3) @ Texans (2-2)— Atlanta lost its first two road tilts by 16-3 points; they’re 1-8 ATS in last nine games as a road underdog, 0-12 ATS in last dozen games vs AFC opponents. Falcons are averaging only 70.3 rushing yards/game; they were outscored 44-10 in first half of last two games. Houston split its first four games, all decided by 7 or fewer points; road team covered all four of their games- they scored only two TD’s on 20 drives in their home games. Texans are 3-7 ATS in last 10 games as home favorites. Home side won last four Falcon-Texan games, with Atlanta losing 17-13/17-10 in last two visits here.
Bills (3-1) @ Titans (2-2)— Tennessee gets star LT Lewan back from suspension here, which is a big help for their OL; Titans converted 14-30 3rd down plays in last two games, after being 3-20 on 3rd down in Weeks 1-2. Under Vrabel, Tennessee is 1-3 as a home favorite. Buffalo lost tough 16-10 home game to New England LW; QB Allen is banged up, Barkley (2-5 as NFL starter) gets nod if Allen can’t go. Under McDermott, Buffalo is 8-6-1 ATS as a road underdog, 6-4-1 in games wth spread of 3 or fewer points. Last three series games were decided by one point each, with Buffalo winning last two; Bills lost four of last five visits to Nashville.
Broncos (0-4) @ Chargers (2-2)— Denver lost its first four games, losing road games by 8-11 points; they lost their two home games on last-second FG’s. Broncos blew 17-6 halftime lead LW; they’re 4-9 ATS in last 13 games as a road underdog. Banged-up Chargers led all four games at halftime; they’re 2-7 ATS in last nine games as a home favorite, 0-2 this year. Bolts are 5-17 ATS in their last 22 AFC West home games. Melvin Gordon figures to get some action at RB for Chargers, after he ended his holdout. Teams split last six series games; Denver scored 13-0-9 points in last three series losses. Teams split last four series games in SD/Carson.
Packers (2-2) @ Cowboys (3-1)— Green Bay won seven of last eight series games (2-0 in playoff games), winning last three visits here, 37-36/34-31/35-31. Packers split their first four games, winning only road game 10-3 (+3) in Chicago; they’ve scored 65 first half points, only 20 second half points this year. GB is 8-14-1 ATS in its last 23 games as a road underdog, 3-6-1 in last ten games on artificial turf. Cowboys scored 35-31 points in winning their two home games; they ran ball for 179 yards/game in Weeks 1-3, were held to 45 in Superdome LW. Dallas is 5-2-1 ATS in its last eight games as a home favorite.
Colts (2-2) @ Chiefs (4-0)— Chiefs whacked Colts 31-13 in playoffs LY; Indy’s first TD scored on a blocked punt. KC won last two series games 30-14/31-13 after losing six of the previous seven meetings- Colts won seven of last nine visits to Arrowhead. Indy split its first four games, with all four games decided by 7 or fewer points; under Reich, Indy is 5-2 ATS as a road dog- three of their four games went over. Chiefs scored 15 TD’s on 38 drives in their 4-0 start; in their last two games, only 18 of their 131 plays came on third down. Mahomes has averaged 7.5+ yards/pass attempt in all four games, but he was 0-11 LW on passes that went 30+ yards downfield.
Browns (2-2) @ 49ers (3-0)— Cleveland has had wildly divergent results, splitting its first four games; only one of their four games was decided by less than 15 points. Browns are 7-3 ATS in their last ten games as a road underdog; they were outscored 48-14 in 2nd half of their two losses. 49ers scored 32 ppg in their 3-0 start; they ran ball for 427 yards in last two games. Under Shanahan, SF is 2-4 ATS when laying points at home. Niners lost last six post-bye games (0-6 ATS), with last four losses by 11+ points. Browns won three of last four games with the 49ers, with average total of 29; teams split pair of meetings here.
Hot & Not Report - Week 5
Matt Blunt
Week of September 30th
There were some interesting results from the two games covered in last week's piece, as the Chiefs/Lions game was the first to buck that 'under' trend of 2019 with a non-conference home underdog. Even still, that game needed a TD late in the contest by Detroit to sail 'over' the number (before KC scored again).
But it was the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 55-40 wild win out at the Los Angeles Rams that was one that shocked many, but not if you caught the “Who's Not” part last week.
That topic touched on just how bad home favorites have been early in the year prior to a road game on TNF, and the Rams SU and ATS loss pushed home favorites in that pre-TNF road role to 2-10 ATS and 2-10 SU during the first five weeks of the year over the past three seasons. I discussed how there had been some big upset winners in there before, and as a 9-10 point underdog on Sunday, Tampa Bay added themselves to that list of big paydays for those that were ballsy enough to ride that trend.
No rest for the wicked though, as it's on to Week 5's potential spots. And while I did mention that I wasn't intentionally picking on L.A. Rams fans, just that their team kept finding themselves in these situational angles, Rams fans will find their team involved in this week's piece as well.
Staying away from Rams angles is going to have to wait at least another week!
Who's Hot
Playing on 'Unders' after a team scores 40 or more points
1-8 Over/Under since Week 15 of 2018
5-12 O/U since start of 2018 season when it's divisional rivals squaring off
In 2019 alone, this trend is 1-4 O/U overall, as we actually had nobody live in it this past Sunday. Interestingly enough too, is the lone 'over' (New England/New York Jets in Week 3) came after a team (New England) put up their 40+ points and didn't cash an 'over' ticket in the process. That came in their 43-0 win over Miami in Week 2, as that's a rare scenario in of itself.
But generally speaking, getting one side to put up 40 points typically cashes an 'over' ticket along with it, and we've got three different teams fitting this role for Week 5.
I'll begin with the Rams and Buccaneers, who each put up 40 or more points in that wild Sunday afternoon game yesterday. They are somewhat grouped together this week as well, as they are both out on the road, and both squaring off against division foes. Remember, since the start of last year, divisional games that fit this 40+ scenario have hit the 'under' at a 70% clip.
The Rams have that short week ahead of them as we already know, travelling north to Seattle for a big game with the Seahawks. A total of 49 is no slouch of a number for guys on a short week, and considering how many yards quarterback Jared Goff threw for on Sunday (517), and how many points the Rams scored (40) and allowed (55), it's easy to assume there will be plenty of love for the high side of this total as Thursday draws near.
Chances are we could see this number even climb a bit, but it won't be because of support from me if that's the case.
Goff's big day statistically was great, but first and foremost, LA's defense has to tighten things up to avoid putting Goff and the offense in that spot needing so many points. Granted, the three interceptions that Goff threw didn't help things, but getting the defense to turn around things on a short week isn't unfeasible. Can't imagine they took Tampa Bay too seriously given how that game played out, and that just won't be the case with a road divisional game against Seattle this week.
NFL prime time games have still been 'under' machines in 2019 despite a 2-1 O/U record the last three, and with how sloppy these short-week, TNF games can be, I do think going low on this total makes a lot of sense in general. Add in this great 'under' role, and I hope this number climbs.
Tampa Bay's the other team visiting a divisional rival in Week 5, as they take a trip to the Big Easy to face a New Orleans team off a big SNF win. The Saints defense completely wrapped up the Cowboys in that one, and there shouldn't be any worry about them taking Tampa lightly as a divisional foe, and after the offensive performance they put up in LA.
The Bucs total is a little lower at 47.5, and with the way the Saints are trying to win games now with Teddy Bridgewater as a “game manager” QB and the defense doing plenty of the heavy lifting, the 'under' generally makes sense here as well. There is more time to dig into a game like this to either confirm or pass on the low side of this total, but given the history of these 40+ point teams the following week, it's hard not to like going low.
The final team that fits this role in Week 5 of coming off a game where they scored 40+ are the Cleveland Browns. The Browns get the national spotlight treatment once again as they head to San Francisco for MNF, with the 49ers coming off a bye.
The bye week for the 49ers makes things a bit more tricky here as they've had two full weeks to prepare to attack this Browns defense, although the last three times it's been AFC vs NFC in this situational angle with one side coming off a 40+ effort, the 'under' is a perfect 3-0. That includes an 0-2 O/U record this year, with one of those games including the 49ers themselves in their 24-20 win over Pittsburgh last time out.
Who's Not
Backing teams ATS after scoring 40 or more points in their last outing
4-8 ATS (33%) since Week 14 of 2018 and 1-4 ATS (20%) in 2019
Sorry Rams fans, I know the first half of this piece could be taken as positive in terms of your defense turning things around in a few days, and they probably will. But recent history suggests that it probably doesn't turn out to be a SU victory for your team given what the point spread is (+1) and the ATS history the following week for these 40+ point scoring teams.
That being said, the ATS record might be 1-4 ATS this season the following week for these squads, but the SU record is 4-1 SU. All four of those outright winners off a 40+-point day were laying at least -6 in all of those wins though, and only the Kansas City Chiefs in their Week 2 win over Oakland was able to bring home the ATS cash. The virtual pick'em point spread here for the Rams/Seahawks game on TNF is a different situation in that regard, so we will just have to see how it plays out.
We already know that Tampa and Cleveland are the other two teams in this spot for Week 5, as both teams are catching a little more than a FG (Tampa +4.5, Cleveland +3.5) for their respective games. Given that the situation does look tougher for Cleveland on paper as it is – an undefeated opponent coming off a bye week and not playing a backup QB – this history does the Browns no favors as well, so we might see another prime time stinker from Cleveland this time next week.
The last five times this scenario has applied to a non-conference game, the team coming into that contest off a 40-point effort is just 1-4 ATS, a run that includes a 0-2 ATS record this season. The 49ers themselves couldn't get it done when they hosted Pittsburgh last time out, and neither could the Ravens in Week 2 when they hosted Arizona.
So Cleveland fans, don't get too over-hyped this week after a great win in Baltimore over the weekend, because we saw the impact a completely full bandwagon for your team can do in their Week 1 blowout loss.
NFL Week 5 odds: Book braces for public to come back strong on Chiefs at home vs Colts
Patrick Everson
Patrick Mahomes guided Kansas City to a last-minute TD and win at Detroit on Sunday. The Chiefs, now 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS, opened as 9.5-point home favorites for their Week 5 tilt against the Colts.
Week 5 of the NFL season has some intriguing matchups that are already seeing some line movement. Covers checks in on the opening odds and early action for a quartet of contests, with insights from John Murray, director of The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.
Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5)
Kansas City is among just three remaining unbeaten teams, though just barely after Week 4. The Chiefs (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) overcame an early 10-0 deficit at Detroit, then got a last-minute touchdown to win a shootout 34-30 as 7.5-point favorites Sunday.
Indianapolis looked surprisingly good the first three weeks of the season, following the stunning retirement of quarterback Andrew Luck. But in Week 4, the Colts (2-2 SU, 2-1-1 ATS) trailed Oakland 14-0 early and never got closer than a touchdown in a 31-24 home loss as 5.5-point faves.
This matchup is in prime time Sunday night, and The SuperBook is bracing for public play on K.C.
“Kansas City was lucky to escape on the road in Detroit,” Murray said. “The Chiefs come home to face a Colts team off a very bad performance of their own in a home loss to the Raiders. Every parlay and teaser will close with K.C. next Sunday night.”
The Chiefs ticked up to -10 in the hour after this line went up, then shortly thereafter went back to -9.5.
Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (-4.5)
Green Bay was in a good spot to remain unbeaten in Week 4, playing at home in the Thursday nighter. But in a back-and-forth battle, the Packers (3-1 SU and ATS) couldn’t outlast Philadelphia, losing 34-27 as 3.5-point home favorites.
Dallas was also in prime time and aiming to remain perfect in Week 4, playing under the Sunday night spotlight at New Orleans. The Cowboys (3-1 SU and ATS) couldn’t find points, though, losing a defensive slog 12-10 laying 2.5 points.
“This game is off the board as the Cowboys play the Saints,” Murray said early Sunday evening, noting that prior to the Cowboys-Saints kickoff, The SuperBook posted Dallas -4.5 against Green Bay. “Both teams were probably a little overvalued off their 3-0 starts. We will learn a lot about the Packers in this game.”
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5)
Baltimore could have gained an early foothold on the AFC North, going off as 7.5-point home chalk against Cleveland on Sunday. However, the Ravens (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS) gave up 30 second-half points in a 40-25 setback.
Pittsburgh lost QB Ben Roethlisberger to an elbow injury in Week 2 and is still seeking its first victory of the season. The Steelers (0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS) still have Week 4 work to do, as they host Cincinnati on Monday night. In Week 3 behind backup Mason Rudolph, Pittsburgh nearly pulled a road upset of San Francisco, falling 24-20 as 6-point pups.
“If the Steelers lose to the Bengals on ‘Monday Night Football,’ the line will go up and the public will come in very hard on the Ravens here,” Murray said. “Either way, we will need the ‘dog pretty big.”
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (PK)
Defending NFC champion Los Angeles fell from the unbeaten ranks in stunning fashion, giving up a 50-plus burger as nearly double-digit Week 4 chalk. The Rams (3-1 SU and ATS) trailed Tampa Bay 21-0 midway through the second quarter, rallied within 45-40 midway through the fourth, but ultimately lost 55-40 giving 9 points at home.
Meanwhile, Seattle bounced back from a Week 3 upset home loss to a New Orleans team minus Drew Brees. The Seahawks (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) went to Arizona as 5.5-point favorites Sunday and exited with an easy 27-10 victory.
Both teams operate on a short week for this Thursday night NFC West clash.
“A nightmare game for the Rams’ defense against Tampa,” Murray said. “The public will likely look to back the Rams anyway. Our look-ahead number closed Rams -2.5.”
The game then reopened Sunday afternoon as a pick ‘em and moved to Rams -1 an hour later. Shortly thereafter, the line went back to pick.
Bet Now/Bet Later NFL Week 5 odds: Wait to take on total in Bears-Raiders in London
Jason Logan
There’s likely going to be an overreaction to the Bears' QB situation, however, with the way Trubisky was playing (588 total yards, 3 TDs, 2 INTs, 81 QBR) there’s not much separating him from Daniel right now.
Being a successful sports bettor is not about betting on the best team, but betting the best number. Scoring the optimal odds for your wager can sometimes be a race to the window – or your mobile – to get the spread or total you want before it changes. Or, sometimes it’s a waiting game until just before kickoff, projecting how the public players will manipulate the numbers.
Senior Industry Analyst Jason Logan gives you a heads-up on the best “Bet Now/Bet Later” games on the NFL board each week.
With four weeks of football data under their belts, oddsmakers will begin tightening said belts with their weekly numbers. Value will be harder to sniff out, so timing your wagers to optimize your opinion is even more important.
Let’s punch these Bet Now/Bet Later games into our Covers Live App line move alerts in Week 5:
SPREAD TO BET NOW: L.A. RAMS AT SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-2, 49)
Wild line movement has been the name of the game when capping this NFC West war for Thursday night. But, that’s what a 55-40 loss to the Bucs will do to your public appeal. The Rams opened as big as 1.5-point favorites for this primetime game but one-sided money on the Seahawks has flipped this spread over the fence and has Seattle giving two points at home.
If you’re not rattled by the WTF result against Tampa Bay, the time to bet Los Angeles is now. Oddsmakers expect the public to pile on the Rams come Thursday, which means this game could finish up closer to the pick’em come kickoff.
I understand where the early attraction is for Seattle: a primetime home game in the rain (expected) in front of the 12th Man against a QB in Jared Goff who struggles away from home. But, can we trust the Seahawks results through four weeks? They’ve squeaked out a win at home over Cincinnati, barely beat Pittsburgh without Ben Roethlisberger, lost to Teddy B and the Saints, and looked better than they were versus Arizona last Sunday. Those are some terrible defenses. But, then again, L.A. just gave up a double nickel to the Buccos.
If you’re riding the Rams, get ‘em while their hot… errr… cold.
SPREAD TO BET LATER: JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS AT CAROLINA PANTHERS (-3.5, 41)
In a battle of young backups making a name of themselves, second-year passer Kyle Allen and rookie QB Gardner Minshew headline this Week 5 non-conference clash in Carolina. The Panthers, who are 2-0 SU and ATS since Allen took over for the injured Cam Newton, are giving 3.5 points to the Jags but it looks like this spread could come down later in the week.
Plenty of books are discounting Carolina -3.5 with the juice, trying to attract some money on the home favorite and stay on this half-point hook. Jacksonville is also off back-to-back wins and covers and has cashed in for backers in three straight outings with Minshew making throws. This is, however, the Jaguars' second road game in a row and third in four weeks after a grueling climb up the mountain at Denver in Week 4.
The Panthers offense is simple enough with Allen at the wheel: two scoops of RB Christian McCaffery and if he’s not available to run or catch, look to TE Greg Olsen. That pair has combined for 25 targets on Allen’s 60 total pass attempts in the last two contests. Jacksonville has some tape on Allen after these starts but the status of CB Jalen Ramsey is up in the air, and he was missed dearly in the win at Denver Sunday.
If you like this home side, wait and see if you can get Carolina without that pesky half-point hook.
TOTAL TO BET NOW: UNDER 48.5 ATLANTA-HOUSTON
At first glance, this game should produce about 1,000 points given all the offensive firepower on the field. But that’s just not the case for these squads this season. The Falcons and Texans are a combined 2-6 Over/Under so far in 2019 and this total, which opened at 49 points, is starting to shrink with money on the Under.
Houston has had trouble putting up big numbers at home this season, totaling only 23 points in its two stands inside NRG Stadium, including a quiet day from Deshaun Watson in Week 4’s loss to Carolina (he can explain the whole thing). The Texans turned to the running game in those matchups, picking up 136 yards on 22 carries last weekend and 126 yards on 30 carries versus Jacksonville in Week 2.
Atlanta has been a bust on offense – no matter the venue – averaging only 17.5 points to start the season. Matt Ryan has thrown six interceptions already (he had just seven total in 2018) and is under duress more than he’d like to be. The Falcons have fallen short of the betting total as visitors plenty of times in the past, going 14-20-2 O/U on the road since 2015 (59% Unders).
This number dipped as low as 48 at some books before action bought back the Over and moved the total to 49. I don’t see it hitting 50, so if you like the Under buy as big as you can now.
TOTAL TO BET LATER: OVER 41 CHICAGO VS. OAKLAND
The total for the first London, England game of the 2019 schedule is promising less-than-entertaining football. Oddsmakers have this number at 41 points with the Bears and Raiders doing battle at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Sunday, and it's dropped as low as 40 at some markets.
Chicago will be without starting QB Mitch Trubisky, who left Week 4 with a dislocated shoulder, and forces the Bears to go with No. 2 Chase Daniel. There’s likely going to be an overreaction to this swap from public money, however, with the way Trubisky was playing (588 total yards, 3 TDs, 2 INTs, 81 QBR) there’s not much separating him from Daniel right now.
The Raiders have a new weapon in RB Josh Jacobs, who sparked the Oakland attack in Sunday’s win at Indianapolis. He had 79 yards rushing and another 29 yards on two catches, and that will help keep the Chicago pass rush guessing in London. One other note about this international affair: the game is being played on artificial turf, and not the soft soccer pitches we’ve seen in past UK games. That will help with speed and surface integrity Sunday.
With Trubisky out and people poo-pooing the Silver and Black, wait and see if this total goes sub-40. Then, if you like the Over, “Benny Hill” it to your bookie to bet it.
by: Josh Inglis
SACK-O’-LANTERN
Last week we won a little money on Marcus Mariota and the Tennessee Titans. The "King of Inconsistency" will possibly face off against Matt Barkley and the Buffalo Bills as a 3-point favorite. We aren’t going to put our winnings back on MarMar but will be hoping he and Barkley will be hitting the dirt early and often.
Although Mariota has yet to throw an interception this year, he has been sacked 17 times - fourth-most in the league. With Josh Allen still in concussion protocol, Barkley will have to face a Titans defense that is getting to opposing QBs 3.2 times a game while the Bills are allowing 2.5 sacks a game.
You may have to wait closer to game time to get this prop but when it opens, hit the Over 5.5 sacks (value at O/U 6.5 as well).
CARDIAC RUSSELL
In Week 3, Russel Wilson threw for over 400 yards at home versus the Saints secondary in the pouring rain. On Thursday, he’ll be back at CenturyLink Field facing an L.A. Rams defense that allowed 55 points to Jameis Winston (385 yards and four TDs) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Last year, Wilson tossed three TDs and ran for 92 yards on the road versus the Rams. With L.A. getting embarrassed last week, look for it to be tough sledding for the Seahawks’ running game versus a Rams run defense that still ranks eighth in DVOA.
With the Sean McVay & Co. able to put up points against a middle-of-the-pack Seattle defense, we’re taking the Over on Wilson’s 19.5 rushing yards and Over 30.5 pass attempts, as the Rams are averaging 37.5 pass attempts allowed through four games.
CASHING ON THE CARDS
Last week we mentioned how terrible the Arizona Cardinals have been at defending tight ends this year. Seattle’s Will Dissly hit the trifecta by going Over on his receptions, yards and scored a plus-money TD in the second quarter. This week Tyler Eifert will get his chance to pad the stats in Week 5’s edition of Cashing On the Cards.
The Cincinnati Bengals TE has seen at least five targets in three of his four games this year and will have a better time making more of his snaps as the Cardinals are averaging a passer rating of 118.4 to opponents – ahead of just the Dolphins. The Cincy offensive line got embarrassed on the national stage Monday night and will be a motivated to give Andy Dalton a little more time to pass.
We’re going back on the trifecta with Eifert’s unassuming totals: Over 2.5 receptions (-128), Over 30.5 yards (-114), and a touchdown anytime (+224).
OVER THEM MOUNTAINS
The Carolina Panthers have failed to hold a visiting team to under 17.5 points in eight of their last nine home games. On the other hand, Jacksonville Jaguars’ “Uncle Minshew” has led his offense to 46 points over their last two games: against the Titans’ No. 7 DVOA defense and last week in the thin air of Denver.
Don’t like trends? OK, we hear you. The Panthers put Pro-Bowler and starting DE Kawaan Short (83.7 PFF grade 2018) on IR and will be starting practice squader Brian Cox Sunday. Also, corner Donte Jackson, who has two INTs this year and is graded positively per PFF, is questionable with a groin injury that held him out last week. On top of this, the Panthers rank as the fourth-worst rushing DVOA defense.
We don’t have a good lean on the side or the total, but we are going to play the Over on Jacksonville's team total of 17.5 points in what is looking like a perfect weather game in Carolina.
WATCHING WILSON
Heading into Week 4, did you know who the Top-3 leaders in the league in rushing touchdowns were? Mark Ingram, Dalvin Cook and … second-year undrafted RB Jeff Wilson Jr. The San Francisco 49ers goal-line back is coming off a bye week which could really help bettors if he plays.
After scoring 30 touchdowns in his final two years at North Texas, Wilson Jr. leads the league in rushes inside the five-yard line and is second in rushes inside the 10.
Unfortunately, with the Week 4 rest, Tevin Coleman may return from injury and possibly push Wilson to be inactive versus the Cleveland Browns on Monday night. The Niners likely won’t dress four running backs, making things a little murkier than usual.
This is a profitable situation to monitor and worthy of your attention. If Coleman were to sit again, we are banging the Wilson anytime TD prop with confidence.
IMPACT INJURIES AND NFL ODDS: WHO'S IN AND OUT IN WEEK 5
PATRICK EVERSON
Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen (concussion) was a full participant in Friday's practice, but he's still questionable at Tennessee. The Bills are +3, but could adjust to +2.5 if Allen starts and +3.5 if he sits.
As the NFL heads toward its 13-game Sunday slate, Friday’s injury report shed some light on the status of several key players. We go behind the counter to see how that information impacted the odds, with insights from Eric Osterman, manager at The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.
Bills: Quarterback Josh Allen (concussion) practiced Friday, but he’s still questionable at Tennessee. Buffalo is currently +3, with a total of 38.5. The SuperBook expects to move to +2.5 if Allen plays and to +3.5 if he sits. “It’s more of a significant move because of the key number,” Osterman said.
Packers: Wideout Davante Adams is out against the Cowboys with a toe injury, and running back Jamaal Williams will sit while in concussion protocol. The SuperBook made no moves off the Adams news and figured Williams would be out, so that was built into the opening line of Packers +4.5. Currently, Green Bay is +3.5, with a total of 47.
Cowboys: The offensive line will be without Tyron Smith (ankle), and fellow tackle La’el Collins (back) is questionable. Those concerns led only to an adjustment on the juice, with the Cowboys currently -3.5 (even) rather than the flat -110.
Colts: Indianapolis’ skill positions are dinged heading into the Sunday night game at Kansas City. Wideout T.Y. Hilton (quad) and running back Marlon Mack (ankle) are both questionable. The SuperBook expects both to play, but noted the line could adjust a half-point if Hilton sits out. Indy is +11, and the total is 56.
Chiefs: Tyreek Hill (shoulder) is out this week, and fellow wideout Sammy Watkins (shoulder/hamstring) is questionable. If Watkins sits, too, The SuperBook would tighten the line a half-point. The Chiefs are currently -11.
Bears: With Mitch Trubisky out after dislocating his left shoulder last week, Chase Daniel starts in London against the Raiders. But since Trubisky wasn’t playing particularly well, The SuperBook had no adjustment due to his absence. The Bears are -5.5, with the total at 40.5.
Patriots: Wideout Julian Edelman (chest) and running back Rex Burkhead (foot) are questionable but hardly a concern for The SuperBook, as New England faces winless Washington. “No effect. The Patriots have the weapons to fill in.” The Pats are laying 15, with a total of 42.
Giants: There was hope that running back Saquon Barkley would return this week, after sitting out the Week 4 win over Washington. But Barkley’s high ankle sprain will require at least another week to heal, and The SuperBook assumed he’d be out with its opening line of Giants +4.5. New York is now +5, with a total of 43.5.
Total Talk - Week 5
Joe Williams
We're on to Week 5 of the National Football League regular season, and we'll have our first game from London, as well as two more teams on a bye. The Chicago Bears-Oakland Raiders (40.5) will battle at the new Tottenham Hotspurs Stadium in a 1:00 p.m. ET start, which will be under the lights in jolly ol' England.
2019 Total Results - Game & Halves
Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Week 4 6-9 6-9 5-10
Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Year-to-Date 26-37 25-37-1 31-31-1
The books made a killing in Week 4, and the under was a frequent play with nine of 15 games going under the total. That was a trend with the first-half and second-half lines, too, as offense was rather scarce in the fourth week of the season. Generally, that's good for the books as the public tends to bet more overs.
Division Bell
We saw five of the six division battles go the way of the 'under' in Week 4, including the primetime game on Monday between the two previously winless AFC North teams. In fact, outside of the Cleveland-Baltimore outlier, which saw the total cash by more than 17 points, the losing team in the other five division games had 10 or fewer points, and only one team in the six division battles scored more than 24 points.
Divisional Game Results Week 4
Cleveland at Baltimore Over (47.5) Cleveland 40, Baltimore 25
Washington at N.Y. Giants Under (48) N.Y. Giants 24, Washington 3
New England at Buffalo Under (41.5) New England 16, Buffalo 10
Seattle at Arizona Under (49) Seattle 27, Arizona 10
Minnesota at Chicago Under (38) Chicago 16, Minnesota 6
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh Under (45) Pittsburgh 27, Cincinnati 3
Line Moves and Public Leans
Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 5 as of Saturday morning.
New England at Washington: 47 ½ to 42
Minnesota at N.Y. Giants: 46 to 43 ½
Indianapolis at Kansas City: 54 to 56
Jacksonville at Carolina: 42 to 40
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh: 43 ½ to 45
Baltimore at Pittsburgh: 42 ½ to 44
Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 5 per the betting trend percentages as of Saturday morning.
Minnesota at N.Y. Giants: Under 94%
Chicago vs. Oakland (London): Under 93%
N.Y. Jets at Philadelphia: Under 92%
Baltimore at Pittsburgh: Over 91%
Atlanta at Houston: Over 87%
There is also a heavy lean on for the 'under' (77 percent) in the Buffalo-Tennessee matchup, and heavy lean on the 'under' in New England-Washington (77 percent) battle on Sunday.
Handicapping Week 5
Week 4 Total Results
Year Over/Under
Divisional matchups 1-5
NFC vs. NFC 2-1
AFC vs. AFC 2-1
AFC vs. NFC 1-2
Week 5 is started with another high-scoring Thursday night battle, and a rarity for a divisional matchup, as the L.A. Rams-Seattle matchup went well 'over' (48.5) with 59 total points. Through 14 primetime battles the 'under' is now 10-4, but the 'over' has connected in each of the past two on Thursday.
Minnesota at N.Y. Giants: Since 2015 under head coach Mike Zimmer, the Vikings have posted 26.5 PPG in 15 games as a road favorite. Make a note that Minnesota scored 27, 37 and 29 points in this role last season with quarterback Kirk Cousins.
Buffalo at Tennessee: The Bills are the only team with a perfect 4-0 'under' record so far during the 2019 season, and the under has cashed in eight of their past nine games on the road, too.
Taking a look at the divisional battles for Week 5:
Baltimore at Pittsburgh: The Steelers offense showed some signs of life against the Bengals on Monday Night Football, posting 27 points for their highest point total of the season. The 'under' has cashed in three of four games for the Steelers, including 2-0 in their two battles against AFC opponents. The defensive showing was more a lack of cohesiveness and effective play by the Bengals, who are decimated on the offensive line, rather than some sudden greatness of the Steelers. They allowed 24 or more points in each of the first three games, an average of 28.3 PPG.
The Ravens had a 40-burger hung on them by the Browns last week at home. After giving up just 27 points in the first two weeks, the Ravens defense was believed to be back. However, they faced the awful Miami Dolphins and Arizona Cardinals, two teams with a combined record of 0-7-1 SU. In the past two games against the Chiefs and Steelers, the Baltimore defense has been pounded for a total of 73 points, or 36.5 PPG. The offense has been on fire regardless of opponent, scoring 23 or more points in each of their four games, or an average of 33.8 PPG. As such, the 'over' has cashed in three of four contests.
The Ravens have hit the under in each of the past three as road favorites in Pittsburgh dating back to 2000, too.
Other important divisional games with important trends to note:
Tampa Bay at New Orleans: The Buccaneers rolled up an impressive 55 points in Sunday's road contest against the Rams, and they have registered 86 total points over the past two outings while coughing up a total of 72 points in the past two contests. In fact, the Bucs have allowed 31 or more points in three of their four contests overall. In their past 19 games on the road, the over has connected in 14 outings for Tampa Bay.
The Saints lost QB Drew Brees (thumb) during the Week 2 game in L.A. It was going to be disastrous, and a drop off in production with backupTeddy Bridgewater under center, right? Well, the Saints are 2-0 SU with 22.5 PPG, covering the spread in each while hitting the over once. It was a low-scoring 12-10 win over the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football, and the Saints offense has scored 12 or fewer points in two of the past three. The jury is still out on what kind of offense the Saints are going to be until Brees is able to return. As far as trends, the under is 9-2 in the past 11 games against NFC opponents for the Saints, while going 9-4 in the past 13 overall contests.
Denver at L.A. Chargers: The third and final divisional matchup takes place in Southern California, as the Broncos hope the fifth time is a charm. Denver's offense has been moribund or most of the season, posting 16 or fewer points in the first three outings. However, they ended up dropping a season-high 24 points in last week's narrow two-point setback against the Jaguars. The 'over' has hit in each of the past two after a pair of under results to start the season. Denver's defense has allowed 24 or more points in three of four outings, but no more than 27 in any one outing.
The over hit in Week 1 for the Chargers, a game which went to overtime against the Colts. However, L.A. is on a three-game 'under' run with 20.0 PPG on offense and 16.7 PPG allowed on defense. The under has cashed in each of the past six meetings in California, while going 9-4 in the past 13 meetings overall between these two AFC West foes. The under is 9-2 in the past 11 divisional games overall for the Bolts, too.
London Calling
Oakland vs. Chicago (1:00 p.m. ET): The Raiders and Bears square off in the first of five international series games this season, and the first of four from London, England. Since the league began this venture in 2007, we've had 24 games played in the United Kingdom and the 'under' holds a slight 13-11 edge in those games but the low side did go 3-0 in 2018. The Bears played overseas in 2011 and captured a 24-18 over Tampa Bay while the Raiders are 0-2 in London, losing both games by double digits and that includes as 27-3 loss last season to Seattle.
Heavy Expectations
There are three games listed with double-digit spreads for Week 5, with one road team listed as a double-digit favorite. The totals are ranging from 42 to 56 in these contests and cashing a total could come down to which teams lay off the gas in the second-half.
New England at Washington (1:00 p.m. ET): The Patriots offense has rolled up 30 or more points in three of their four outings, but the 'over' has hit just once thanks to an amazing defensive effort by New England overall. The Patriots defense has allowed a total 13 points this season. Yes, they have yielded 27 total points on the season, but the 14 points scored by the Jets actually were by their defense, not by the offense. So the Patriots D has been on lockdown.
Don't look for New England's defense to give up much this week in D.C., either. QB Colt McCoy will take the reins of the offense this week looking to get the Redskins their first win despite being 15-point underdogs in their home building. The Redskins have averaged 16.5 PPG on offense, seeing their production just in every game from 27 to 21 to 15 to just 3 last week. The defense has given up 24 or more points in all four contests, and 31 or more in three of the outings. However, even a 34-7 result this week would hit an 'under'. It's hard to see the 'Skins scoring into double-digits against a lockdown Pats D, especially with a rusty McCoy at the helm.
Make a note that the 'under' has connected in each of the past nine games when New England is a double-digit road favorite, which includes its Week 2 result when they won at Miami by a 43-0 count.
N.Y. Jets at Philadelphia (1:00 p.m. ET): The Jets have once against ruled out QB Sam Darnold (mononucleosis) for another game, so QB Luke Falk will make a second straight start. The Jets offense has been terrible, posting 11.0 PPG in three outings, and technically, just 6.3 PPG by the offense, as they have 14 points from their defense, as mentioned above. The unknown heading into this one is how well Falk will perform after having two weeks to prepare for the Eagles after a bye in Week 4. While the offense has been rather inconsistent so far, the defense has been consistent -- consistently worse, that is. They allowed 17 in the opener, 23 in Week 2 and 30 in Week 3.
Indianapolis at Kansas City (8:20 p.m. ET): Many felt that the Colts would see a drop-off in offensive production after QB Andrew Luck retired rather suddenly during the preseason. However, QB Jacoby Brissett has led the team to an impressive 23.5 PPG across the first four games, while the defense has coughed up 25.5 PPG so far. That's a great recipe for overs, going 3-1 so far. That's unlikely to change this week against the high-flying Chiefs and QB Patrick Mahomes. To make matters worse for the Colts, Mahomes didn't account for one touchdown in Detroit last week, and the Chiefs still won. He'll be angry and looking to get back on track under the lights. The over still cashed for the Chiefs in their 34-30 win last week, and they have 28 or more points in all four outings, hitting the over three times. They allowed 26 or more points in those three games when the over hit, too. Those tracking Sunday Night Football, we haven't seen an over ticket yet this season...so we could be due!
Under the Lights
Cleveland at San Francisco (8:15 p.m. ET - Mon.): The Monday Night Football game this week features the Browns, who finally discovered their offense in Baltimore last week, against a 49ers team coming off a 15-day absence due to their bye in Week 4 and an extra day to prepare for MNF.
The Browns are averaging 22.3 PPG while yielding 22.8 PPG through four games, although defensively that's a bit skewed after coughing up 43 in the Week 1 loss to the Titans. The 'over/under' has split 2-2, but the under is 2-0 in the two primetime showings for Cleveland.
The 49ers have hit for 24 or more points in each of their three outings, averaging 32.0 PPG. Defensively, they have yielded 20 or fewer points in each of their three games, although the combined record of their three opponents is 3-9 SU, so it remains to be seen whether San Francisco's defense is that much improved or just a product of their poor opponents to date.
Sunday Blitz - Week 5
Kevin Rogers
GAMES TO WATCH
Buccaneers at Saints (-3, 45 ½) – 1:00 PM EST
Tampa Bay (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS) is winless in two home games this season, but the Buccaneers have excelled on the road by beating the Panthers and Rams in the underdog role. In Week 4’s most unexpected result, nobody predicted the Bucs would drop 55 points on defending NFC champion Los Angeles in a 55-40 upset as nine-point underdogs. Jameis Winston posted 385 yards and four touchdown passes for the Bucs, who have covered five consecutive games as an underdog since Week 15 of 2018.
For the first time since Teddy Bridgewater has taken over as starting quarterback for the injured Drew Brees, the Saints (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) are listed in the favorite role on Sunday. Bridgewater led the Saints past the Seahawks as a road underdog in Week 3, followed by a 12-10 triumph as 2 ½-point home underdog to hand the Cowboys their first loss of the season. The Saints are laying points for the first time since a Week 1 last-second win over the Texans, but New Orleans is riding an 0-5 ATS run (including the playoffs) since Week 15 of 2018 as a favorite.
The road team captured each of the two matchups last season, as the Buccaneers outlasted the Saints, 48-40 as 10-point underdogs in the 2018 opener. Both Brees and Bucs’ quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick each eclipsed the 400-yard passing mark in that shootout, but the Saints got the better of Tampa Bay in the second meeting at Raymond James Stadium, 28-14 as 10-point favorites. The Bucs own a 3-2 ATS mark in the last five trips to the Superdome, but all three covers came as a touchdown underdog or higher.
Best Bet: Saints 24, Buccaneers 20
Bills at Titans (-2 ½, 39 ½) – 1:00 PM EST
Although it’s only Week 5, this is a pivotal game in the AFC playoff race as a Buffalo (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS) would help solidify the Bills as a Wild Card contender. The Bills started 3-0 prior to suffering their first loss of the season last Sunday, 16-10 to the Patriots. Buffalo fell to 3-29 in the past 32 meetings with New England, but managed a cover as seven-point underdogs. The Bills outgained the Patriots by 151 yards, but scored only one touchdown as Buffalo has amassed more yardage than its opponents in all four games.
The Titans (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS) rebounded from consecutive divisional losses to the Colts and Jaguars to knock off the Falcons, 24-10 as 3 ½-point road underdogs. Tennessee jumped out to a 24-7 halftime lead and cruised to its second win this season in the ‘dog role led by Marcus Mariota’s three touchdown passes. The only issue for the Titans this season is succeeding in the favorite situation as Tennessee is 0-2 SU/ATS when laying points.
Buffalo squeezed past Tennessee last season, 13-12 as six-point home underdogs, marking the third consecutive meeting since 2012 that has been decided by exactly one point. The Bills are leaving the state of New York for the first time this season, as Buffalo tries to improve on a 6-3 ATS record in its past nine road contests.
Best Bet: Titans 17, Bills 14
Packers at Cowboys (-3 ½, 47) – 4:25 PM EST
Both these NFC squads dropped their first game of the season last week as each of these teams seek a 4-1 start. Green Bay’s (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS) offense finally woke up, notably quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who threw for a season-high 422 yards after not posting more than 235 yards in any of the first three wins. However, Rodgers was intercepted on the final drive in the red zone as the Packers lost to the Eagles, 34-27 as 3 ½-point favorites. Now, Green Bay is flipped to a road underdog, as the Packers are 2-9 SU and 3-7-1 ATS the past nine games away from Lambeau Field.
The Cowboys (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS) took care of the Giants, Redskins, and Dolphins in each of the first three weeks, while scoring at least 31 points in each of those victories. Dallas didn’t allow a touchdown in last week’s game at New Orleans, but the Saints did enough to edge the Cowboys, 12-10. Heading into the fourth quarter, the Cowboys led, 10-9 before a short Wil Lutz field goal put the Saints ahead for good to cash as 2 ½-point underdogs. Dak Prescott threw nine touchdown passes in the first three games, but didn’t reach the end zone, while Ezekiel Elliott was held to his lowest rushing output of the season with 35 yards.
Dallas responded well off a loss in 2018 by going 5-1 SU, but covered only twice in those six opportunities. The Packers have owned the Cowboys over the last decade by winning seven of the last eight meetings since 2009, as Green Bay is 3-0 in Arlington in this stretch. The three wins have come by 1, 3, and 4 points, capped off by a 35-31 victory as 2 ½-point underdogs in 2017 as Green Bay erased a 21-6 deficit by scoring the go-ahead touchdown in the final minute.
Best Bet: Packers 28, Cowboys 24
BEST TOTAL PLAY
UNDER 40 ½ - Bears vs. Raiders
Chicago and Oakland hook up at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London for the first overseas game of the season. The Raiders are coming off an impressive road victory over the Colts last week, 31-24, but Oakland has struggled to score points following a win since Jon Gruden returned as head coach. Oakland is 0-5 off a win since 2018, while scoring 10, 3, 16, 17, and 10 points in those games. Oh, and throw in the fact that All-Pro linebacker Khalil Mack is facing his former team for the first time since the Raiders dealt him to the Bears prior to last season. The Bears have allowed no more than 15 points in a game this season and even though they turn to backup quarterback Chase Daniel, Chicago may win this game and not even reach 21 points.
TRAP OF THE WEEK
The Broncos still haven’t won a game yet this season as they sit at 0-4. Tow of those losses came on a last-second field goal at home to the Bears and Jaguars, while squandering a 17-3 lead in last week’s two-point defeat to Jacksonville. Denver heads to Los Angeles to face the Chargers, who are coming off their second win of the season. The Chargers opened up as 6 ½-point favorites, but that number has dropped to 5 ½ at the Westgate Superbook. Denver rallied past Los Angeles last season, 23-22, as the Chargers own a 2-6-1 ATS mark in their last nine home contests.
BIGGEST LINE MOVE
Both the Bengals and Cardinals have yet to win a game this season as the two teams hook up at Paul Brown Stadium. Cincinnati opened up as a 4 ½-point favorite at the Westgate Superbook, but the Bengals have dropped to a three-point favorite. The Bengals’ offense has gone backwards from a yardage perspective each week, while tallying only 175 yards in last Monday’s 27-3 drubbing by Pittsburgh. Cincinnati has won only one of its last 12 games dating back to last season, while Arizona seeks its second road cover of the season.
BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW
The Falcons have struggled in the role of a road underdog the last few seasons by accumulating a dreadful 1-8 SU/ATS mark. The only victory came at Washington in 2018 as a measly one-point ‘dog, while Atlanta is 0-2 ATS when receiving points on the road this season in defeats at Minnesota and Indianapolis. The last time the Falcons won outright as a road underdog of four points or more came at Oakland in Week 2 of the 2016 season. Atlanta is facing its third consecutive AFC South opponent, as the Falcons try to end their interconference hex by going 1-12 in their last 13 matchups with AFC foes.