NFL Betting: NFL Week 2 Notes
By Lenny Del Genio
Sportspic.com
The late-great Pete Rozelle, the former commissioner of the NFL, once envisioned a league wrought with parity, one where "any team could beat any team" on "any given Sunday."
Through NFL Week 2, it is crystal clear that Mr. Rozelle's dream has been achieved.
Even with the Monday Night result between the Denver Broncos and Atlanta Falcons still pending, there will be just six 2-0 and conversely six 0-2 teams after all the games are played and every team has two games in the books. Everybody else (that's 20 of 32 teams) stands at 1-1 and as is typically the case, there are more questions than answers.
The most surprising 2-0 team is clearly the Arizona Cardinals, who won outright as a double-digit underdog in New England Sunday. To answer the obvious question, the Arizona Cardinals were +520 on the money line. For the record, DD underdogs were 21-18-2 against the spread a year ago, turning a slight profit. Arizona has actually now won 9 of its last 11 games dating back to last year.
It was a history-making loss for the New England Patriots, who lost their home opener for the first time in the history of Gillette Stadium (11 seasons). It was also (according to ESPN Stats & Info), the franchise's 1st loss since Week 10 of 1989 where they outgained their opponent by at least 142 total yards, a 45-game stretch.
One could argue that the New England Patriots should never even been in a position to win as they were the beneficiaries of a late fumble by the Arizona Cardinals' running backing Williams as the Arizona offense was simply trying to run the clock out. Of course, we could argue the New England Patriots should have then won if not for a "phantom" holding call on tight end Gronkowski, the tip of the iceberg for a bad Sunday for the replacement officials. As it was, Pats K Gostkowski missed a 42-yard field goal after going 4 for 4 on previous field goal attempts.
The Arizona Cardinals will meet another 2-0 team in Week 3, the Philadelphia Eagles, who are the 1st team in NFL history to open its season with back to back one-point victories. Obviously, the high profile Philadelphia Eagles are 0-2 at the betting window, dropping them to 5-13 against the spread the last 18 games in which they've been favored. Of course, that's not even the worst record as chalk within their own division as the Dallas Cowboys are now 4-16 against the spread laying points following its outright loss at Seattle (we had the Seahawks!) in Week 2.
The Philadelphia Eagles have turned the ball over an astounding nine times in their two victories, but are only -3 in the TO department overall. While QB Michael Vick has yet to rediscover the magic of two seasons ago, he was at least much better on play-action passes against the Baltimore Ravens, going 7 of 7 for 150 yards with 1 touchdown pass.
As for the Baltimore Ravens, maybe they should stop printing those Super Bowl tickets and Joe Flacco can stop writing his MVP acceptance speech? However, they were another team caught on the wrong end of a 50/50 call by the replacement refs. A touchdown that would have put them up 27-17 was called back on a shaky offensive pass interference call.
We are guaranteed at least two 3-0 teams following NFL Week 3 with the Philly-Arizona winner and whomever wins Monday night (Denver or Atlanta) will face a fellow unbeaten in the form of the Houston Texans and San Diego Chargers respectively. The Houston Texans and San Diego Chargers (Broncos pending) are the only 2-0 AFC teams right now, though either has hardly been tested. A week after dominating a bad Miami team, Houston allowed the Jacksonville Jaguars to posses the ball for only 16 minutes in a 27-7 win. The Jacksonville Jaguars gained only 117 total yards and after two games the Houston Texans have allowed a league best 17 points.
The San Diego Chargers have beaten a pair of 0-2 teams. The key has been a pair of halftime leads. For all their misfortune during HC Norv Turner's failed tenure, the team has won 35 straight times when heading into half with at least a two-touchdown advantage.
That leaves one 2-0 team to discuss, possibly the most impressive of the lot to date, the San Francisco 49ers. They are the only team in the league to open the year against a pair of 2011 playoff teams and they really dominated the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions by more than the overall point differential of +16 might seem to indicate.
Of the 0-2 teams, the biggest surprise is the New Orleans Saints, although they were a clear candidate for regression in our eyes coming into the year. The New Orleans Saints' defense has been torched by the last two Heisman Trophy Winners, giving up 75 points and 463 yards per game. QB Drew Brees has not looked good at all. The New Orleans Saints are the only 0-2 team in the NFC.
There will be at least one 0-3 team at this time next week as the New Orleans Saints will host the 0-2 Kansas City Chiefs, a trendy offseason pick in the AFC West, that has looked terrible thus far. If you're in one of those eliminator pools (only need to pick a SU winner, can't use the same team twice), we'd recommend going with New Orleans Saints in Week 3, who for the record has opened as a nine-point favorite.
The other four 0-2 teams all reside in the AFC and are not much of a surprise: the Cleveland Browns, Tennessee Titans, Jacksonville Jaguars and the Oakland Raiders. The Cleveland Browns' quarterback Brandon Weeden was much improved in Week 2, but is the only rookie QB (out of five) without a win through two weeks. The Oakland Raiders (who we played against Sunday) gave Ryan Tannehill his 1st career win for the Miami Dolphins as the Silver and Black dropped to 2-13 SU since '07 in the Eastern Time Zone. The Oakland Raiders play four more times out East this season. Oh boy.
The other two rookie quarterbacks that won were Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts, beating the Minnesota Vikings and Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks beating the Dallas Cowboys. Both were home underdogs and won straight up, a big storyline we noticed yesterday. Home underdogs went 5-1 SU/ATS Sunday. The lone loss in the group was the Jacksonville Jaguars. Tannehill and the Miami Dolphins were a home underdog as well. One rookie quarterback was a road favorite (RG III) and his team lost in St. Louis. The other victorious home dog was the Carolina Panthers over the New Orleans Saints.
Road favorites/home underdogs are the rule of the day in Week 3, starting Thursday night where the Carolilna Panthers have opened as a 1-point dog vs. the Super Bowl Champion New York Giants. Other road favorites for the upcoming slate of games include: the San Francisco 49ers (-7 at Minnesota Vikings), Detroit Lions (-3 at Tennessee Titans), NY Jets (-3 at Miami Dolphins), Buffalo Bills (-3 at Cleveland Browns), Philadelphia Eagles (-4 at Arizona Cardinals), Houston Texans (-1 at Denver Broncos), Pittsburgh Steelers (-5 at Oakland Raiders), and finally Green Bay Packers (-3.5 at Seattle Seahawks). That's 9 of 16 games where the road team will be laying points! To rehash, road favorites are just 3-8 against the spread through two weeks.
After going just 9-7 SU in Week 1, home teams have dominated NFL Week 2 entering Monday night, going 13-2 SU (10-4-1 against the spread). This includes the Green Bay Packers dominating the Chicago Bears Thursday night. To bring things "full circle," one of the two road teams to win straight up was two-touchdown underdog Arizona Cardinals! Overall, underdogs are 8-6-1 against the spread in Week 2 entering Monday Night Football. Underdogs were 9-7 against the spread in Week 1.